• Hey everyone, staff have documented a list of banned content and subject matter that we feel are not consistent with site values, and don't make sense to host discussion of on Famiboards. This list (and the relevant reasoning per item) is viewable here.
  • Do you have audio editing experience and want to help out with the Famiboards Discussion Club Podcast? If so, we're looking for help and would love to have you on the team! Just let us know in the Podcast Thread if you are interested!

StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Reader mode
Okay, while there's not been a lot of pages since yesterday evening, i still need some short summary from someone who's in the know about all this tech stuff what the recent findings mean. ^^

I get it definitely means that any talk or thought about ReDraketed's SoC being shelved should be left behind (not that they weren't already unrealistic before).

Oh and also ... about some posts from a few pages back ... all i say is: Respect the elderly! ;_; ;D
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
Could be a better SEC node though the chance is low still

Would be relatively cheap as a design though, why? They don’t need to start everything from scratch if it’s based on another product from the same vendor, no one does that. Orin would be significantly more expensive as a design than say, T239

Would keep it small and manageable.
Click to expand...
Not sure I understand what your saying, but are you saying a 12sm design based on Orin would be a cheaper design than say a 6sm Orin based design?

if that's the case, it would be quickly offset by higher manufacturing costs per unit.
 
Bonejack said:
Okay, while there's not been a lot of pages since yesterday evening, i still need some short summary from someone who's in the know about all this tech stuff what the recent findings mean. ^^

I get it definitely means that any talk or thought about ReDraketed's SoC being shelved should be left behind (not that they weren't already unrealistic before).

Oh and also ... about some posts from a few pages back ... all i say is: Respect the elderly! ;_; ;D
Click to expand...

I'm so old I consider anyone who didn't have a NES during its heyday as someone new to Nintendo and the industry.
 
Bonejack said:
Okay, while there's not been a lot of pages since yesterday evening, i still need some short summary from someone who's in the know about all this tech stuff what the recent findings mean. ^^

I get it definitely means that any talk or thought about ReDraketed's SoC being shelved should be left behind (not that they weren't already unrealistic before).

Oh and also ... about some posts from a few pages back ... all i say is: Respect the elderly! ;_; ;D
Click to expand...

We just had the first (legally obtained) tangible proof of the T239 100% being the SoC for the successor due to import/data shipment proving that T239 Devkits were being shipped by Nvidia from India throughout 2023.

And that the same shipping pattern happened identically in 2016 with the T210 devkits

Mass production is about to start
 
YolkFolk said:
I'm so old I consider anyone who didn't have a NES during its heyday as someone new to Nintendo and the industry.
Click to expand...

Us almost 40 and 40+ elders should start a Fami Club.

P4bl0 said:
We just had the first (legally obtained) tangible proof of the T239 100% being the SoC for the successor due to import/data shipment proving that T239 Devkits were being shipped by Nvidia from India throughout 2023.

And that the same shipping pattern happened identically in 2016 with the T210 devkits

Mass production is about to start
Click to expand...

I gotta ask this, no offense ... but the last sentence, is that something that's definitely info from the findings, or your own educated guess?

'Cause i just wanna rally the joint Team ASAP + H1 if it's info. ;D
 
Bonejack said:
I gotta ask this, no offense ... but the last sentence, is that something that's definitely info from the findings, or your own educated guess?

'Cause i just wanna rally the joined Team ASAP + H1 if it's info. ;D
Click to expand...

Mass production starting soon is not from those specific findings but it’s the general consensus and it was revealed in previous reports from MoneyDJ, TechInsights
 
P4bl0 said:
Mass production starting soon is not from those specific findings but it’s the general consensus and it was revealed in previous reports from MoneyDJ, TechInsights
Click to expand...

Goodness me.

It was also revealed in previous reports that the Switch Pro was out last year, or was it the year before?

These things shouldn't be taken as gospel. I mean, it could be true, but it's far from certain.
 
P4bl0 said:
I did some research also

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *


We're very close.
Click to expand...
Sorry can I ask where this is from ? Work everyday with trade data and have a proprietary database at work I just looked at. And I don't see any of these flows.
So looked at broader flows for the product in question between China and India, and there is a lot of trade happening every day in this sphere (eg not something that happened just at the dates you see in the table).
In general I d be surprised if the HS codes matched between 2016 and 2023, because after the first 6 digits there is no norm and countries do what they want to report. Means the guy in India who reported something under 85437099 in 2016 could be replaced by another guy in 2023 who felt like naming it 85437091.
I am also surprised that they would name the product so explicitly when really they don't have to, and the customs agent normally never does that.
Either way, looks a bit shady to me but I may be wrong (looks like another person found those numbers, so giving the benefit of the doubt).
 
casualreader said:
Means the guy in India who reported something under 85437099 in 2016 could be replaced by another guy in 2023 who felt like naming it 85437091.
I am also surprised that they would name the product so explicitly when really they don't have to, and the customs agent normally never does that.
Click to expand...

It's from Indian Import/Export Data.

"The guy in India" operates under Nvidia company name, HS codes not matching is not a big deal as they have the same meaning, just one is more explicit than the other, but the description is .

They have to name the product explicitly in case of customs package inspection and insurance, it's an official company doing this not a Mum shipping food to her son for christmas declared as clothes to dodge the customs VAT bill (true story)
 
Last edited:
YolkFolk said:
Goodness me.

It was also revealed in previous reports that the Switch Pro was out last year, or was it the year before?

These things shouldn't be taken as gospel. I mean, it could be true, but it's far from certain.
Click to expand...

Switch Pro ended up being the OLED, so yeah it was the year before and I wasn't here speculating on Switch Pro so not sure why you quoting me on that.

Well it is certain now that we have visible and tangible proof it's happening rather than rumors and media reports.

If you have a report of a different date for the mass-production date feel free to share

You're free to wear blinders and manage your expectations if you want, no one forcing you to believe but it's a speculation thread so let's not police each other fun, cause it's about having fun at the end of the day when the NG releases
 
casualreader said:
Sorry can I ask where this is from ? Work everyday with trade data and have a proprietary database at work I just looked at. And I don't see any of these flows.
So looked at broader flows for the product in question between China and India, and there is a lot of trade happening every day in this sphere (eg not something that happened just at the dates you see in the table).
In general I d be surprised if the HS codes matched between 2016 and 2023, because after the first 6 digits there is no norm and countries do what they want to report. Means the guy in India who reported something under 85437099 in 2016 could be replaced by another guy in 2023 who felt like naming it 85437091.
I am also surprised that they would name the product so explicitly when really they don't have to, and the customs agent normally never does that.
Either way, looks a bit shady to me but I may be wrong (looks like another person found those numbers, so giving the benefit of the doubt).
Click to expand...

Here: https://www.zauba.com/export-t210-sw-development-platform-hs-code.html

Note: Why cant i use the markdown buttons to insert stuff on mobile?
 
P4bl0 said:
It's from Indian Import/Export Data.

"The guy in India" operates under Nvidia company name, HS codes not matching is not a big deal as they have the same meaning, just one is more explicit than the other, but the description is .

They have to name the product explicitly in case of customs package inspection and insurance, it's an official company doing this not a Mum shipping food to her son for christmas declared as clothes to dodge the customs VAT bill (true story)
Click to expand...
international regulations requires that only for the first 6 digits. Anything after it is country specific, and trust me countries get wild with naming these things (especially as the HS nomenclature gets revised every 5 years with new products that did not exist before).
NVidia says what they want on the content, they do not choose the HS code that gets reported, merely they suggest.
 
Speaking of import/export, has anyone checked the data for the time period close to the Switch’s reveal trailer?
 
0
Alright Fami I now have access to the B2B version of those import/data websites, let's have fun investigating:


New evidence from global import data now adds more fuel to the fire, potentially giving us significant clues about its development stages, reveal, and even release.

Timeline

  • July 2022: First known instance of 'T239 SW Development Platforms' being shipped from Nvidia to Nintendo in Japan.
    • Import Data: Four units arrive for 'Development and Testing purposes.'
    • Insight: T239 is confirmed to be the new SoC (System on Chip) for Nintendo Switch 2.
  • Late July 2022: Another batch of 'T239 SW Development Platforms' is shipped.
    • Import Data: Additional units are shipped.
    • Insight: This suggests that the internal testing phase is well underway.

  • May 2023: A sizeable batch of 'T239 SW Development Platforms' arrives.
    • Import Data: Four units are shipped.
    • Insight: As the number of units seems to be increasing, this could indicate that the development phase is nearing completion.
  • Late May 2023: Another batch arrives soon after.
    • Import Data: A few more units are shipped.
    • Insight: Rapid, consecutive shipments might be a sign of urgent testing or near-final adjustments.

  • July 2023: FOC ENG SW DEVELOPMENT PROTOTYPE BOARD IWOH FOR DEVELOPMENT AND TESTING PURPOSES shipped to Foxconn factory in China (Taiwan).
    • Import Data: Five units are shipped.
    • Insight: This could be the finalized version of the console headed for mass production as the declared value is matching the previous devkits. Note: T239 is not showing, and they tried to camouflage it as a Prototype Board but the HS Code (95045000) indicate video game consoles.
Previous Code Names and Teams

  • HOVI: The code name for the team behind the original Nintendo Switch.
  • IWOH: The code name for the team behind the Switch NG ?
Conclusion
The import data suggests a well-structured and phased development cycle for the Nintendo Switch 2 identical to the Switch 1 in 2016, aligning well with the rumors of a potential reveal in November 2023 and a release in March/April 2024.
 
Last edited:
Hermii said:
Not sure I understand what your saying, but are you saying a 12sm design based on Orin would be a cheaper design than say a 6sm Orin based design?

if that's the case, it would be quickly offset by higher manufacturing costs per unit.
Click to expand...
Correct. TSMC 4N is cheaper per wafer. Per a SemiAnalysis article, mentioning nvidia by name, it costs 2.2x more compared to SEC8N but is 2.7x denser. Making TSMC 4N better bang for buck. Making TSMC 4N the cheaper design, in theory.

Then there’s also additional savings of not needing more or bigger cooling elements, not needing bigger enclosures (lesser materials), etc,
 
Last edited:
darthdiablo said:
Correct. TSMC 4N is cheaper per wafer. Per a SemiAnalysis article,, mentioning nvidia by name, it costs 2.2x more compared to SEC8N but is 2.7x denser. Making TSMC 4N better bang for buck. Making TSMC 4N the cheaper design, in theory.

Then there’s also additional savings of not needing more or bigger cooling elements, not needing bigger enclosures (lesser materials), etc,
Click to expand...
My point is that imo the node change theory doesnt make sense. Unless it was accompanied by a redesign from a smaller soc to a larger one.
 
Hermii said:
My point is that imo the node change theory doesnt make sense. Unless it was accompanied by a redesign from a smaller soc to a larger one.
Click to expand...
Agreed. I just cannot see good reasons for a node change. They knew about upcoming mode processes in advance (years), and like people here did, they would know what kind of cooling and enclosure sizes would be required for choosing SEC8N vs TSMC 4N
 
Also another fun fact, EA spotted shipping devkits (Nintendo and Playstation) to their UK studio in April and July 2023, they are cooking.

otFaw6T.png
 
ILikeFeet said:
You are starting from scratch. That's the problem.

And you still need to test the chips which is why they were in the Nvidia leak. Since this hypotetical chip isn't, it's so new, it doesn't physically exist yet or only just did. Which points to a 2025 or 2026 release
Click to expand...
I’m reasonably confident they could take an existing chip that’s at Samsung and move it to high volume production on a better node at TSMC in 18 months or less. Even if the decision was made in late 2022, you’ll be in mass production by mid 2024.
 
Hermii said:
Not sure I understand what your saying, but are you saying a 12sm design based on Orin would be a cheaper design than say a 6sm Orin based design?

if that's the case, it would be quickly offset by higher manufacturing costs per unit.
Click to expand...
The conversation leading up to this was about the nodes and such, I only commented they could make it on a better SEC node and make it work. People argued that going on 8N and then 4N would be ludicrously expensive, which yes it wouldn’t be cheap for us. But a lot of tools get brought forward in this process, which cuts down the process of designing a chip from the ground up significantly. And also cuts down the tape out process to a fraction. It’s ludicrously expensive for a company that has no history at any foundry and they have to design and develop their tools for those foundries.

I remember there was a chart passed around here about costs at 7, 5 and 3nm and so on, but those are for startups, not for like AMD, QC or Nvidia. Which is why they (the latter two in particular) can be flexible with the investment

If they chose a better node though, a new SEC node is perhaps the best candidate in the cheapest but the most advanced position.
 
Vash_the_Stampede said:
I’m reasonably confident they could take an existing chip that’s at Samsung and move it to high volume production on a better node at TSMC in 18 months or less. Even if the decision was made in late 2022, you’ll be in mass production by mid 2024.
Click to expand...
Respectfully, while this is certainly possible, it makes no sense. The performance of SEC8N was never a secret, there would have been no reason to spend the millions to make a chip on that node just to then spend millions more to redesign it for a different foundry process without ever selling it.
 
P4bl0 said:
Alright Fami I now have access to the B2B version of those import/data websites, let's have fun investigating:


New evidence from global import data now adds more fuel to the fire, potentially giving us significant clues about its development stages, reveal, and even release.

Timeline

  • July 2022: First known instance of 'T239 SW Development Platforms' being shipped from Nvidia to Nintendo in Japan.
    • Import Data: Four units arrive for 'Development and Testing purposes.'
    • Insight: T239 is confirmed to be the new SoC (System on Chip) for Nintendo Switch 2.
  • Late July 2022: Another batch of 'T239 SW Development Platforms' is shipped.
    • Import Data: Additional units are shipped.
    • Insight: This suggests that the internal testing phase is well underway.

  • May 2023: A sizeable batch of 'T239 SW Development Platforms' arrives.
    • Import Data: Four units are shipped.
    • Insight: As the number of units seems to be increasing, this could indicate that the development phase is nearing completion.
  • Late May 2023: Another batch arrives soon after.
    • Import Data: A few more units are shipped.
    • Insight: Rapid, consecutive shipments might be a sign of urgent testing or near-final adjustments.

  • July 2023: FOC ENG SW DEVELOPMENT PROTOTYPE BOARD IWOH FOR DEVELOPMENT AND TESTING PURPOSES shipped to Foxconn factory in China (Taiwan).
    • Import Data: Five units are shipped.
    • Insight: This could be the finalized version of the console headed for mass production as the declared value is matching the previous devkits. Note: T239 is not showing, and they tried to camouflage it as a Prototype Board but the HS Code (95045000) indicate video game consoles.
Previous Code Names and Teams

  • HOVI: The code name for the team behind the original Nintendo Switch.
  • IWOH: The code name for the team behind the Switch NG ?
Conclusion
The import data suggests a well-structured and phased development cycle for the Nintendo Switch 2 identical to the Switch 1 in 2016, aligning well with the rumors of a potential reveal in November 2023 and a release in March/April 2024.
Click to expand...
This is honestly some cool sleuthing, thank you!
 
lemonfresh said:
So what if the system is not announced this year. My guess they will do a big event in like Jan or feb
Click to expand...
I'm willing to bet literally anything and everything that the new system isn't announced in 2023. My only question is how soon after the holiday period that they want to talk about it. I really hope they do something in January, but Nintendo can be unpredictable.
 
Lemrik said:
Is there a up to date summary of the possible Switch 2 specs?
Maybe with comparsions to other consoles. That would be nice!
Click to expand...

Summary is the same as ever. No new info.

As for the shipping sleuthing, that's some of the coolest indicators that this thing is coming in 1H.
 
0
I'm not done yet, this is the nail in the coffin! Imma go off then say H1 to the ninjas (my inbox is open):

Goertek, a heavy hitter in high-end hardware like AR, VR (behind PSVR2, supplying parts to Apple Vision Pro, etc) just shipped millions of "speakers for mobile phones" to Nintendo this past summer. The intriguing part? These are being sent to China and cost only $0.25 each. This low cost is a clear sign of mass production.


ZCTCGcj.png


Even more fascinating is that given Goertek's expertise, these speakers could possibly have voice recognition features, similar to Siri.

Oh, and their speakers are waterproof! Imagine a NG that you can safely bring into the bath. Gaming while relaxing in a tub could soon be a reality

This points to a mass-production, with some potentially cool new audio features, and possibly even waterproof capabilities.
Looks like an exciting year ahead for Nintendo!





HSLUJa7.png






vDxOdo4.png
 
P4bl0 said:
Also another fun fact, EA spotted shipping devkits (Nintendo and Playstation) to their UK studio in April and July 2023, they are cooking.

otFaw6T.png
Click to expand...
I remind the court that Nintendo Switch development kits were sent out to third parties about a year before launch.

April, huh?

I wonder if they end or start their fiscal year with the new device.
 
P4bl0 said:
Alright Fami I now have access to the B2B version of those import/data websites, let's have fun investigating:


New evidence from global import data now adds more fuel to the fire, potentially giving us significant clues about its development stages, reveal, and even release.

Timeline

  • July 2022: First known instance of 'T239 SW Development Platforms' being shipped from Nvidia to Nintendo in Japan.
    • Import Data: Four units arrive for 'Development and Testing purposes.'
    • Insight: T239 is confirmed to be the new SoC (System on Chip) for Nintendo Switch 2.
  • Late July 2022: Another batch of 'T239 SW Development Platforms' is shipped.
    • Import Data: Additional units are shipped.
    • Insight: This suggests that the internal testing phase is well underway.

  • May 2023: A sizeable batch of 'T239 SW Development Platforms' arrives.
    • Import Data: Four units are shipped.
    • Insight: As the number of units seems to be increasing, this could indicate that the development phase is nearing completion.
  • Late May 2023: Another batch arrives soon after.
    • Import Data: A few more units are shipped.
    • Insight: Rapid, consecutive shipments might be a sign of urgent testing or near-final adjustments.

  • July 2023: FOC ENG SW DEVELOPMENT PROTOTYPE BOARD IWOH FOR DEVELOPMENT AND TESTING PURPOSES shipped to Foxconn factory in China (Taiwan).
    • Import Data: Five units are shipped.
    • Insight: This could be the finalized version of the console headed for mass production as the declared value is matching the previous devkits. Note: T239 is not showing, and they tried to camouflage it as a Prototype Board but the HS Code (95045000) indicate video game consoles.
Previous Code Names and Teams

  • HOVI: The code name for the team behind the original Nintendo Switch.
  • IWOH: The code name for the team behind the Switch NG ?
Conclusion
The import data suggests a well-structured and phased development cycle for the Nintendo Switch 2 identical to the Switch 1 in 2016, aligning well with the rumors of a potential reveal in November 2023 and a release in March/April 2024.
Click to expand...
I love you, you’ve made my weekend
 
P4bl0 said:
I'm not done yet, this is the nail in the coffin! Imma go off then say H1 to the ninjas (my inbox is open):

Goertek, a heavy hitter in high-end hardware like AR, VR (behind PSVR2, supplying parts to Apple Vision Pro, etc) just shipped millions of "speakers for mobile phones" to Nintendo this past summer. The intriguing part? These are being sent to China and cost only $0.25 each. This low cost is a clear sign of mass production.


ZCTCGcj.png


Even more fascinating is that given Goertek's expertise, these speakers could possibly have voice recognition features, similar to Siri.

Oh, and their speakers are waterproof! Imagine a NG that you can safely bring into the bath. Gaming while relaxing in a tub could soon be a reality

This points to a mass-production, with some potentially cool new audio features, and possibly even waterproof capabilities.
Looks like an exciting year ahead for Nintendo!





HSLUJa7.png






vDxOdo4.png
Click to expand...
You're incredible!

You know this lines up with exactly what I've been thinking. Manufacturing appears to have begun in summer, with final assembly still awaiting the go-ahead.

No matter when it launches, it appears it's being manufactured RIGHT NOW, which means it'll probably either leak, or have Nintendo be wanting to control the narrative and go with a reveal as soon as they're ready to send out the order to finalise assembly.
 
Concernt said:
You're incredible!

You know this lines up with exactly what I've been thinking. Manufacturing appears to have begun in summer, with final assembly still awaiting the go-ahead.

No matter when it launches, it appears it's being manufactured RIGHT NOW, which means it'll probably either leak, or have Nintendo be wanting to control the narrative and go with a reveal as soon as they're ready to send out the order to finalise assembly.
Click to expand...


You're too.

It just did!
 
P4bl0 said:
I'm not done yet, this is the nail in the coffin! Imma go off then say H1 to the ninjas (my inbox is open):

Goertek, a heavy hitter in high-end hardware like AR, VR (behind PSVR2, supplying parts to Apple Vision Pro, etc) just shipped millions of "speakers for mobile phones" to Nintendo this past summer. The intriguing part? These are being sent to China and cost only $0.25 each. This low cost is a clear sign of mass production.


ZCTCGcj.png


Even more fascinating is that given Goertek's expertise, these speakers could possibly have voice recognition features, similar to Siri.

Oh, and their speakers are waterproof! Imagine a NG that you can safely bring into the bath. Gaming while relaxing in a tub could soon be a reality

This points to a mass-production, with some potentially cool new audio features, and possibly even waterproof capabilities.
Looks like an exciting year ahead for Nintendo!





HSLUJa7.png






vDxOdo4.png
Click to expand...
Just out of curiosity where are you getting millions from? That screenshot says 55k Units
 
P4bl0 said:
It just did!
Click to expand...
Thanks for the compliment!

Though when I say leak, I should be more precise.

I'm a firm believer that a lack of leaks does not indicate a lack of intent to reveal, just that things are being well controlled. However if this thing has entered or will soon enter production, the kind of leak or rumour will change to that of indicating the size, design, perhaps even images if we're extremely lucky and Nintendo is extremely clumsy.

Fingers on the pulse, Fami!
 
Skittzo said:
Just out of curiosity where are you getting millions from? That screenshot says 55k Units
Click to expand...

Yeah, that gave me pause as well. Maybe there are other shipments to back that up but 55k units is hardly for mass production on its own.

Really cool finds, though, @P4bl0 !

Edit: Nvm saw you just answered below. Awesome!
 
Concernt said:
Thanks for the compliment!

Though when I say leak, I should be more precise.

I'm a firm believer that a lack of leaks does not indicate a lack of intent to reveal, just that things are being well controlled. However if this thing has entered or will soon enter production, the kind of leak or rumour will change to that of indicating the size, design, perhaps even images if we're extremely lucky and Nintendo is extremely clumsy.

Fingers on the pulse, Fami!
Click to expand...
I was about to give up hope for a few months, engines have now began!!!!! Lol
 
Reader mode
You must log in or register to reply here.
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
Last edited:


Back
Top Bottom