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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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LukasManak22 said:


UPDATE 8.45pm UK: Eurogamer sources can now corroboate the earlier reports that the Switch 2, once destined for release later in 2024, is now set for Q1 2025.

The console's launch moving into early next year - but still within the coming financial year - is designed to ensure Switch 2's launch line-up features as many titles as possible, Eurogamer understands.
Click to expand...


tenor.gif
 
This is all nuts.
A bit torn between "how the f can they mess it up so much" and "they fed us so well during the switch era that they re probably crafting something absolutely crazy".
Now the optim version ignores that these things are so long to plan that waiting will not make things better than what was initially planned.
You get to wonder, what would they have done if the switch had a normal life cycle. From a company perspective, this is concerning.
 
Hermii said:
Yea that part was correct, but the second half of the sentence was mistaken.

"Not the deep learning accelerator found in newer Nvidia chips that uses less processing power?"
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Hermii said:
He was not correct though. The deep learning accelerator isn't found in newer Lovelace cards, its Orin specific.
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DLAs are not specific to Orin. DLAs were present on Xavier. So DLAs are Tegra specific.
 
Jake said:
I’ve been using my Xbox Series X for third party games for the past 2 years, so I’ll be fine as far as that goes. For first party, guess I’ll stick with Mario vs DK and Paper Mario TTYD
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Im honestly about ready to cave and go this route as well. Switch has always had enough for me and for years I have been fine with graphics being almost a generation behind the Xbox and PlayStation, but if Nintendo's plan is to have hardware generations last 8 years, then perhaps its time for me to purchase a companion console. Perhaps an Xbox with GamePass will be a b-day present to myself next month.
 
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I guess if it's delayed for software lineup, that kind of confirms early exclusives, huh? That's nice. Assuming it is delayed to Q1 2025.
 
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necrolipe's Twitter (X) post on why a 2025 launch doesn't automatically make T239 outdated based on one of the leaked slides from Microsoft
  • Index
    • Anyway, before anyone thinks T239's automatically outdated, I highly suggest reading @necrolipe's post below.

    "If the Switch 2 launches in 2025, its SoC will be outdated"

    Here I leave an example of research and development of the next Xbox system

    Look at the time it takes between the decision and design of the SoC and the launch of the final product
    Click to expand...
     
  • Index
    • TomNookYankees said:
    I keep beating this dead horse but this is also with whatever team they supposedly have in charge of handling their OS and NSO having barely done jack shit lately. Genesis NSO hasn't been updated since June of last year, Nintendo can't even bother dropping at least one GBA ROM per month, E-shop still runs like shit, etc.
    Click to expand...
    I do think think they can do alot. Don't Nintendo have a history of struggling OS? The Wii never really had a hypervisor. The 3DS ran slow even though it had one core. The Wii U ran slow as well and even had to flush the The OS when playing BOTW. I am not justifying it but I am just saying maybe they are doing their best.
     
    gnetc said:
    Yeah when the hell are they announcing that, June?? Furukawa said “Yeah let’s ride with Luigi’s Mansion 2 HD and Paper Mario TTYD until summer”
    Click to expand...
    It's very unlikely, but since Peach is already dated for March, TTYD could be in April and LM2 could be in May

    Even more unlikely is randomly announcing a bunch of new games in June that pad out the rest of the year, however
     
    Ghostsonplanets said:
    Smaller chip, so it takes less space on the system and Nintendo can manufacture more per wafer and more energy-efficient, which directly affects battery life.
    Click to expand...

    Ahh ok, thanks for the explanation, I have no idea what a lot of this stuff means so good to get some context for the chatter.
     
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    LukasManak22 said:
    On another note, Switch 1 becomming best selling console of all time?
    Click to expand...
    If this is all true, yeah.

    I still can't square this with the tape-out and production unless they want so much stock at launch it's impossible to scalp. Announce in March, release in March, 12 month lead up. It would be unprecedented (even less precedented than a two month lead up), but it could work.
     
    oldpuck said:
    Not 100% sure what you're asking, but chip development like this, based on what we've seen from AMD and Nvidia, takes 3 years. So if you wanted to replace T239 with something for a 2025 release, you would have needed to start in 2022.

    But let's pretend for a second that development is instantaneous, that I can package up a SOC from any existing technologies right this very second. The differences between the chip you'd make today right this very second and the leaked T239 specs would be little more than a footnote. And even those differences might not be good as they'd represent potentially increased costs for very little (or even no) improvements. Let's write them out even, so we can see what we're talking about.

    We could replace T239's modified Ampere with stock Ada. This is almost no change at all, the architectures are so similar. You could get the larger Optical Flow Accelerator, but because of limitations of being a handheld, Frame Generation is not likely to ever work. The larger OFA might be a literal waste of space, so this could effectively be a downgrade.

    You could update from LPDDR5 to LPDDR5X. It's possible this has already happened. 5X would decrease battery life for the sake of extra bandwidth. Benchmarking suggests that extra bandwidth might be much of a performance win. This is a shrug.

    ARM processors have actually been progressing nicely. You could replace the A78C cores with A715s. This would break Switch 1 backwards compat for what ARM advertises as a whopping 10% increase in performance. You could use A710s instead. This would keep BC, and ARM advertises the same 10% performance increase, but benchmarks suggest the opposite with an actual drop in performance.

    You could put your chip on TSMC N3. Going by existing products on that process node, Nintendo could probably do that and launch this thing at $750. It's a non-starter.

    The technology to make T239 significantly better does not yet exist and is unlikely to till late 2027, at which point it will still be prohibitively expensive. That's just the reality on the ground.



    No one is making games with PS6 specs in mind while they're still desperate to figure out how to make games with PS5 specs profitable.

    Specs matter. Features matter more. Switch wasn't much more powerful than the 360, but games didn't look like the 360, and they certainly didn't only come from the 360 era. Why? Because Maxwell (the GPU arch) and the rest of the console (solid state storage, the RAM pool, the CPU design) were all much more modern.

    If AMD delivers a truly innovative GPU design that causes Xbox Series 2 to completely alter how DirectX works, the Microsoft will push that version of DirectX into Windows, which will force Intel and Nvidia to redesign their GPU pipelines to be DirectX14 (or whatever) compatible, which will alter how PC software works, which will start to leave T239 behind.

    Tellingly, Microsoft seems to be driving the updates and forcing AMD to keep up. And what MS is pushing are things like RT and ML, forcing AMD to keep up with Nvidia's design. Right now it looks like T239's feature set will have a long life.


    Truth

    No clue. Custom SOCs for mass market devices that last more than a couple years are pretty rare, and we only have knowledge on T239's tapeout because the Lapsus hack gave us data we could cross-check elsewhere. That was an unprecedented event.
    Click to expand...
    Thank you for your didactic approach, you really help to make this thread more enjoyable and useful.
     
    It really seems like a reasonably buffed T239 is as good as it gets for the time being. There's nothing from Nvidia beyond Thor and it won't be an improvement over it at all... Best case scenario, another die shrink to N3E and hilariously high clocks to get it sing.
     
    O. W. Funnyname said:
    It's very unlikely, but since Peach is already dated for March, TTYD could be in April and LM2 could be in May

    Even more unlikely is randomly announcing a bunch of new games in June that pad out the rest of the year, however
    Click to expand...

    They did that in 2021 tho right? The June Direct announced Metroid Dread, Wario Ware and Advance Wars if I remember right.
     
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    LukasManak22 said:


    UPDATE 8.45pm UK: Eurogamer sources can now corroboate the earlier reports that the Switch 2, once destined for release later in 2024, is now set for Q1 2025.

    The console's launch moving into early next year - but still within the coming financial year - is designed to ensure Switch 2's launch line-up features as many titles as possible, Eurogamer understands.
    Click to expand...

    I’m admittedly bummed out, but if this is the reason behind the delay, then so be it. It’s not like I have a say in the matter, so why fight it? This would benefit first-party output and well as third-party. Could be a super solid launch as far as titles and variety are concerned.

    The wait is gonna suck, lol…
     
    omniryu said:
    I do think think they can do alot. Don't Nintendo have a history of struggling OS? The Wii never really had a hypervisor. The 3DS ran slow even though it had one core. The Wii U ran slow as well and even had to flush the The OS when playing BOTW. I am not justifying it but I am just saying maybe they are doing their best.
    Click to expand...
    3DS being slow is actually a storage issue. I don't know if this is an actual hardware flaw though or if the OS has bad I/O management.
     
    Dizzle said:
    I swear, some people in this thread amplify the pessimistic takes so they can whip themselves into a frenzy. You know who you are. You have a great avatar, but times up.
    Click to expand...
    News like this are just made to make doomerism enter and take over your entire soul, leaving only the soul of a doomer left from the once bright and optimistic soul that once existed.
     
    ITSMILNER said:
    What’s the difference if this uses 8nm over a small one? Like, how does that effect the system and what it can do?
    Click to expand...
    Heat and power consumption are the biggies. 8N will run hotter and consume more battery, which would require that it be clocked pretty low to keep it viable for a handheld, meaning the system wouldn't have near the same power potential. Would still be significantly more powerful than Switch 1, but on 4N it could potentially be in spitting distance of the Series S.
     
    ITSMILNER said:
    What’s the difference if this uses 8nm over a small one? Like, how does that effect the system and what it can do?
    Click to expand...
    There's a few things that 8nm* will affect:

    Physical size - The chip itself will be bigger. This means the console itself will be bigger, and as a result, harder to carry around. Especially for those of us here with little baby hands. Can also lead to the system being more expensive due to costs of production and shipping being higher due to the increased size and resulting weight, as well as due to having to possibly spend more for better cooling.

    Performance - T239 on 8nm will also run hotter, which means that clock speeds will be have to be lower, lest the console burst into flames or has a battery life of 7 seconds. In all seriousness though, more heat = less efficiency = less battery life. Also puts a ceiling on what the system can do due to forcing the clock speeds to be lower, though it's not too big of a difference compared to if the chip had 8 SM VS 12 SM or whatever. Think anywhere between what current Switch overclocks do - so smoothing out framerate dips, average higher dynamic resolution, etc - to pushing the system from PS4 Pro to almost Xbox Series S power.

    Discourse - If T239 is on 8nm, this thread and Twitter will erupt in discourse so bad; so toxic; so unhealthy that it'll be called World War V. Cries about how Nintendo handicapped the console, or released an Xbox One in 2024 will spread like wildfire. For this reason alone, I pray Nintendo and Nvidia go with 4nm.

    *Remember rule one of the Dakhil Doctrine
     
    Submitting the job application now to Nintendo of Japan, infiltrating the company to change the internal release date.

    Learning Japanese isn’t a requirement 😈
     
    Zedark said:
    So MK and 3D Mario have been cooking for at least 7 years now. I find it hard to believe that those two titles, which I assume are the major releases for the first year of Switch 2, aren't ready for a 2024 launch of the system. So the major tentpole releases should not be a problem I'd think. This would imply that, if software was a reason for a delay, then either some minor releases got them to shift things, or this is not the reason for the delay (in which case I can't think of any other reason tbh).

    The entire delay theory seems hard to square with the current situation tbh.

    Or perhaps they wanted more tentpole releases and it is indeed a software issue...
    Click to expand...
    Mario Kart probably "only" 4-5 years because of Tour (and that's not counting the booster course pass development even)

    But 3D Mario who the fuck knows. Could be a cancelled project in between, an abnormally long incubation period, etc.
     
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    O. W. Funnyname said:
    It's very unlikely, but since Peach is already dated for March, TTYD could be in April and LM2 could be in May

    Even more unlikely is randomly announcing a bunch of new games in June that pad out the rest of the year, however
    Click to expand...
    It's my understanding that they prepare for situations like this ahead of time, with games like FE Engage and Pikmin 4 sat on rather than released as soon as they were ready, to suit the slots they had. While I, being who I am, will not be believing this until and only until they officially announce this is the case (or it hits January 1st 2024, whichever is sooner), even I can see how they can make the square peg fit the round hole here.

    Splatoon 3 extended support, spread out the remasters for Prime 3 and 4, the HD re-releases of TP and WW, whatever smaller titles they had cooking brought up and given their own release month. It's not an impossible gap to cross especially when some months can be somewhat safely ejected; January and February 2025 don't "need" anything with a launch in March.
     
    Famiboards: "Man, a Partner Direct?! It can't get any worse than that. Well, at least Switch 2 is coming out this year, and this means it'll certainly be announced in March!"

    Nintendo:
    IfyjWLQMeF6kbG2r0z.webp
     
    Concernt said:
    It's my understanding that they prepare for situations like this ahead of time, with games like FE Engage and Pikmin 4 sat on rather than released as soon as they were ready, to suit the slots they had. While I, being who I am, will not be believing this until and only until they officially announce this is the case (or it hits January 1st 2024, whichever is sooner), even I can see how they can make the square peg fit the round hole here.

    Splatoon 3 extended support, spread out the remasters for Prime 3 and 4, the HD re-releases of TP and WW, whatever smaller titles they had cooking brought up and given their own release month. It's not an impossible gap to cross especially when some months can be somewhat safely ejected; January and February 2025 don't "need" anything with a launch in March.
    Click to expand...
    Remastering a game that isn’t out. Who said Nintendo isn’t pioneering the industry?
     
    I think there's a high chance we'll see this thing in June, because, if we go back to 2016, the only reason the NX wasn't shown at E3 in June was because Nintendo was afraid of copycats releasing before the console, and with that ruled out for the sucessor, I think it's safe to say June is a real possibility (or I'm coping).
     
    LukasManak22 said:
    The delay must really been recent, can't imagine how the talks were over at Kyoto.
    Click to expand...
    Picture the meeting: Furukawa, Miyamoto, Shinya Takahashi, Takashi Tezuka, Eiji Aonuma and many more all sitting together in a dark room, doomering, realizing that everything they had planned and worked towards for years was blowing up to nothingness all around them. They had told themselves that a smooth transition was happening this time around, that a Wii U situation would never happen again, they now realized how very wrong they were. Suddenly ''Hello darkness my old friend i've come to talk with you again'' starts playing in the darkly lit boardroom. Furukawa starts sweating heavily and starts practicing his speech from when he is set to meet with Nintendo shareholders that will surely eat him for breakfast in a few months time.
     
    Lugia667 said:
    Delaying to make sure the system has a strong lineup is literally the opposite of Wii U
    Click to expand...
    It's all very well being confident that the launch line-up will be strong, but if that's the aim, it also limits the games available to wait on, as things like Prime 4 or FE4 are clearly thought to help the Switch 2 launch, even being cross-gen. I can see new games like a 2D Zelda or 2D DK in the same situation.

    pelusilla6 said:
    So we probabbly getting Metroid remasters, Zelda remakes/remasters like Wind Waker and Pokemon this year.
    Click to expand...
    Prime 2+3 HD, TP+WW HD, Unova remake, LM2 HD, Arlo HD, I don't know if it's enough, frankly, even if they also speed up other ports, such as DKC Returns or Starfox Assault/Kid Icarus/F-Zero, it would still be a fairly poor year, relying mainly on Polemon.
     
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    Individualised said:
    3DS being slow is actually a storage issue. I don't know if this is an actual hardware flaw though or if the OS has bad I/O management.
    Click to expand...
    Yeah, you're right. It just seems that running there OS always have some hardware limitations
    CalmMind said:
    I find myself agreeing with SMD. I think I'm going to be sick.
    Click to expand...
    Right now, I think it is just best to wait until March.
     
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