I don’t think you are wrong, but in my opinion, they’d have to have some new games after Peach to try and carry some momentum through the year. And they might have those! But if they did, I’m surprised a February General Direct hasn’t taken place to start outlining what’s in store for the year. (Outside of the lost COVID year(s), I don’t think I remember a Switch year where so few games were on the horizon or where there wasn’t at least one huge tentpole game dated.) That said, it’s only Feb 16th, so anything could still happen!
Another circle I’m trying to square is that starting in April, Nintendo has another tough FY to deal with when it comes to comparables because of the triple-punch of The Super Mario Bros. Movie, TotK, and Wonder. With Switch sales seeing a natural decline, I’d assume they have to have some sort of plan to try and ensure their profits don’t see a large backslide.
That all said, I nearly fell out of my seat when I read that Sony said they won’t have any large 1st party studio releases in 2024.