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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Oh right, I’ve been meaning to ask, but how come it is believed that MP4 is soon?

I, personally, am not seeing much to indicate that it is soon (by March 31st 2024 soon).

And do not think MP1 Remaster is solid enough of an idea to point to that.
 
I'm really surprised to see the discussions about MP4 being a Drake exclusive. That is one thing we can actually completely rule out. It was announced as a Switch game and the Switch sold incredibly well. So in my mind, it's a Switch title till further notice.

Whether or not it launches with Drake is mere speculation and I don't rule that out, however.

Keep in mind "launch window" is used pretty liberally by Nintendo and the other console manufacturers/publishers if we're being honest. From what I remember, the launch window can mean 6-8 months from the device launch. So an MP4 Drake port isn't crazy or hard to believe. It's really just a matter of when the game releases and when the console releases. I do not think whether or not Metroid is a huge system seller is much of a factor here.

The more games on Drake to show off the new tech and improvements, the better. BoTW on Switch was really a "holy shit I can play this game on the go" moment. I feel like MP4 at 4k 60fps would be a great sell on top of a much improved portable experience as well.

3D Mario is most certainly undergoing development. Idk what to expect but I am going to say 12 to 24 months out from the new hardware release. Obviously, I'd love for it to be sooner but I am not holding my breath lol.
Since I previously added some comments in favor of the "MP4 might be a Drake exclusive" side of the discussion, I'll only add that I do think it being a cross gen title is the most likely option, but only because the Switch is such a high selling console that it probably made the most sense to make it cross gen early in development.

But by that same token, I think all first party games for the first year or two of Drake might be cross gen. The discussion about how this new device will be marketed has disappeared recently, but it's still very possible that Nintendo will try to position Drake as simply the next part of the "Switch family of systems" and attempt some slower, iPhone-style migration.

At least, this might be another way to try to make sense of the contradiction between the timelines from our different sources (the 2023/early 2024 timeline implied by the Nvidia leak and the Linux commits vs. the late 2024 timeline implied by developer sources). The exclusive 4K games might be quite a ways out, which is why some developers think Drake won't be coming out until late 2024, but if Nintendo's plan is to release the device with only cross gen titles then 2023 makes sense even if the exclusives aren't there.
 
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I speak for a select amount, but it would be nice to see what a exclusive from the ground up Metroid for Drake would look like.

That said, that’s a want, not what we expect. We fully expect it to be a cross gen title at this point.
 
I wonder if dragon quest 12 will be on og switch or if it will be a (redacted) title I feel like it will be because it would be a system seller in Japan because dragon quest is insanely huge there and if so I wonder if they're waiting to show gameplay footage because (redacted) isn't out yet I feel like Nintendo and the dragon quest team are definitely in talks considering Nintendo is almost always the most sold gaming console in Japan
 
And no, they aren’t going to make it Switch 2 exclusive
We don't know, you can't say for sure what will happen. Obviously it was announced as a Switch game, so we can assume that it will be a Switch game, but it could be a Switch 2 exclusive at this point, after all they also want big games for the launch window. Metroid Prime 4 could be one of the games, it could be a cross-gen title, but it also could be only for Switch 2.

I wonder if dragon quest 12 will be on og switch or if it will be a (redacted) title

I think it will be for Switch redacted. Square Enix really want to make it big, especially for us in NA and Europe. I'm not sure that DQXI sold as much as they wanted outside of Japan, and that's why they are changing things for DQXII. It will also be on PS5 I guess.
 
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I wonder if dragon quest 12 will be on og switch or if it will be a (redacted) title I feel like it will be because it would be a system seller in Japan because dragon quest is insanely huge there and if so I wonder if they're waiting to show gameplay footage because (redacted) isn't out yet I feel like Nintendo and the dragon quest team are definitely in talks considering Nintendo is almost always the most sold gaming console in Japan
With Dragon Quest 12, I'll always remember that presentation from 2021 where the host asked Yuji Horii what hardware the game was being developed for and was told he couldn't ask that even though he was allowed to ask about the release date:

 
We don't know, you can't say for sure what will happen. Obviously it was announced as a Switch game, so we can assume that it will be a Switch game, but it could be a Switch 2 exclusive at this point, after all they also want big games for the launch window. Metroid Prime 4 could be one of the games, it could be a cross-gen title, but it also could be only for Switch 2.

It just sounds so incredibly unlikely that it’s not worth considering. Despite Wii U being an absolute disaster, they still committed to Breath of the Wild on the platform. Why would they not honor a commitment to Switch, the platform that’s destined to sell 150 million + lifetime?

Nintendo will have exclusives for Switch 2, we just don’t know any of them yet.
 
We don't know, you can't say for sure what will happen. Obviously it was announced as a Switch game, so we can assume that it will be a Switch game, but it could be a Switch 2 exclusive at this point, after all they also want big games for the launch window. Metroid Prime 4 could be one of the games, it could be a cross-gen title, but it also could be only for Switch 2.
No. MP4 will never be exclusive to Switch 2. Never. It was announced for Switch and will also release there, it's always in Nintendo's schedule for over 5 years as a Switch game. Ditching that and making it Switch 2 only would be the biggest fuck you, even for Nintendo's standards. It will never happen. Just look at the BOTW, it also released on Wii U. MP4 is a Switch title and it will release there.
 
I'm probably in the minority in thinking I would prefer that MP4 be a next console exclusive game so that they could really go nuts with it without being held back by Switch (MP Remaster looked great, but it is still a remastered Gamecube game).

That said, there is basically no chance that that would ever happen especially considering the install base of Switch by now. But I could totally see it being cross gen. Though with that there's also the question of how Switch games will work on the next console.
 
I'm probably in the minority in thinking I would prefer that MP4 be a next console exclusive game so that they could really go nuts with it without being held back by Switch (MP Remaster looked great, but it is still a remastered Gamecube game).

That said, there is basically no chance that that would ever happen especially considering the install base of Switch by now. But I could totally see it being cross gen. Though with that there's also the question of how Switch games will work on the next console.
I would much prefer it too , also sadly can’t imagine it.
It’s a shame that with consoles now, we have the benefit of BC but have to wait years after a console launch to get proper “next-gen” titles.
 
In the latest Nikkei article regarding Nintendo’s IP, they somehow included the following:

“Since Switch is losing its appeal and no one knows whether the next-generation console, rumored for release in 2024, will be a hit, Nintendo needs to keep a good balance between games and intellectual property -- what Miyamoto called the "two wings" of the company.”

Where did they get this “rumor” from? 🤨

Edit: Answering my own question—the source of the rumor is probably this Nikkei business column (not a news report). The call is from inside the house!
 
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I wonder if dragon quest 12 will be on og switch or if it will be a (redacted) title I feel like it will be because it would be a system seller in Japan because dragon quest is insanely huge there and if so I wonder if they're waiting to show gameplay footage because (redacted) isn't out yet I feel like Nintendo and the dragon quest team are definitely in talks considering Nintendo is almost always the most sold gaming console in Japan
It's time for dragon quest builders 3
Why is it taking so long? Hardware limits?
 
I would much prefer it too , also sadly can’t imagine it.
It’s a shame that with consoles now, we have the benefit of BC but have to wait years after a console launch to get proper “next-gen” titles.

It just sounds so incredibly unlikely that it’s not worth considering. Despite Wii U being an absolute disaster, they still committed to Breath of the Wild on the platform. Why would they not honor a commitment to Switch, the platform that’s destined to sell 150 million + lifetime?

Nintendo will have exclusives for Switch 2, we just don’t know any of them yet.
It depends.
If they want to sell a lot of copies, yes they can make it cross platform.
But what if the game is a million seller. Everyone wants it. In that case if you want to sell a lot of new switch 2 devices, this game can do the trick and you don't want to downgrade the game for switch 1. But get the best gfx out of it to blow people away and convince them to buy switch 2.

From wiiu to switch handheld was a good reason for people to upgrade. If we go from one handheld to another, I don't think beside the gfx update people will jump on it if they also can play it on switch 1.


Still based on Nintendos history, they always surprised people with new way of playing. So I would be surprised if they just come with an upgrade of switch 1. Maybe beside hardware power, what else can Nintendo bring that will be a game changer?

Addon for VR. It seems plausible because the switch1 has almost everything available to do that already.
 
Because general public didn't know that the word super, advanced, u & 3 (infront) are for a new gen. Majority of them prefer number at the end as a new generation in any products. That's why I strongly suggest Nintendo just put a Switch 2 name to avoid previous worst successors
Mega Drive 2, Mega CD 2, and Master System 2 weren't new generation consoles. PS3 being called that didn't spell "success" as a successor to the PS2. Wii U's problem wasn't the name - It's an insult to huge swathes of the global public, who, over the years, bought Tiger Electronics singular handheld games, understood that the Game Boy wasn't a new Game & Watch, that XBox ONE was more powerful than the XBox 360, that XB1S/X are different to XSS/XSX, and that iPhone 6S was not the same phone as iPhone 6. The idea that Wii U, which follows the same rules, is somehow a unique exception to this is BS. There are reasons why it ended up a commercial failure, but the name wasn't one. Industry Politics, 2 years of scandalous negative momentum preceding its launch, lack of prolific software momentum, several games ported to 3DS with nothing going the other way, Wii U and 3DS cannibalising each other often, trying to support two platforms after a HD transition without critical 3rdPs on board, loss of confidence - These are the reasons it became an internal commercial failure.

Similarly, the idea that the Switch's successor should follow the same boring conventions as the PS brand is straight-up anti-Nintendo, in that it doesn't convey what they're about, and that matters. It doesn't say "imagination". It's too safe. It's sterile. I'm not so keen on "Super", as that was very much of its time, BUT the assertion that 30+ years and generations after the SNES, people in 202X wouldn't get it blows my mind. A lot of people who grew up with that system would be parents now, and in the "Age Of Information", a younger generation who grew up with the Wii and its Virtual Console, and with wider discourse around such products, they would surely understand. But I feel we're heading towards an era of relative safety, and the Ordinal Numbering Convention will be adopted - So, it would be "Nintendo Switch (2nd Gen)". That would be considered "different enough" to the Cardinal Numbering Convention adopted by PlayStation and numerous phones, but safe enough to convey that it's a successor. Ultimately, the aim would be that "Switch" becomes the norm. I guess I could warm to "Advance", but the belief that Nintendo has to copy PlayStation's rules to have a successful transition is one that I (and hopefully they, too) must reject wholeheartedly. Once more, Nintendo has the fastest-selling systems to reach 100m units in the DS and Switch, AND the most systems to break that (DS, Switch, GB Family, Wii). So, the lack of faith is both wildly disproportionate and very much misplaced here.

All I did was state a fact as well.

Not to mention it’s been a couple decades since Nintendo has been concerned about releasing hardware that might be outdated and below current standards. Part of their approach for the last few generations has been manufacturing hardware they can sell at a point that’s considered cheap compared to the competition, while also avoiding selling at a loss.
Switch had an industry-leading chip. It launched with literally the best portable gaming SoC it could - There isn't another portable SoC in 2017 or earlier, which can play the games the Switch does, so, No, no facts were stated in that post. Wii was an outlier because they wanted to build a console for $100 following the failure of the GameCube. Wii U was the most powerful system on the market when it launched, for a year - Many people forget that. It was Nintendo's Dreamcast, if you will. Given that Switch portable mode is considered to be "Wii U equivalent performance", we can finally kill the narrative that the Wii U was "below requirements" or "underpowered". The Wii U was also a huge performance leap from the Wii. So, we can now identify another pattern - When they have a commercial failure, the performance "leap" is minimal, so as to prevent escalating (internal) development costs, and new ideas, new thinking, new approach are adopted. We see this from GameCube to Wii, and Wii U to Switch. When there is a commercial success, a performance leap is possible because the success breeds confidence among their hardware and software development teams. The leaked SoC details also support this.
 
Switch had an industry-leading chip. It launched with literally the best portable gaming SoC it could - There isn't another portable SoC in 2017 or earlier, which can play the games the Switch does, so, No, no facts were stated in that post.
What you’re saying here wasn’t anything specifically I was arguing against.

All I said was that just because a product might be “finished,” it doesn’t mean it has to be released in the immediate future. I also said Nintendo doesn’t typically manufacture with hardware that’s going to make it hard for them to sell a console at a profit while remaining cheaper than the competition. Both of these statements are true.

Chips aside, there were still stronger tablets than Switch in 2017 but you couldn’t play Zelda on an iPad Pro. Nintendo knew they didn’t have to beef it up that hard.
 
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I'm probably in the minority in thinking I would prefer that MP4 be a next console exclusive game so that they could really go nuts with it without being held back by Switch (MP Remaster looked great, but it is still a remastered Gamecube game).

That said, there is basically no chance that that would ever happen especially considering the install base of Switch by now. But I could totally see it being cross gen. Though with that there's also the question of how Switch games will work on the next console.
MP games are usually pretty linear with backtracking and great art.

I'm not really seeing it held back by hardware anymore than say ToTK which seems to be pretty ambitious and has a lot more going on. Graphically speaking they could probably pop off with more power but I have no doubt we will have to wait long to see Nintendo put the hardware to great use.

Their titles usually get the best out of their hardware so I am not worried about it and rather not see that massive Switch install base get shafted on a game Nintendo said would come to Switch.

The biggest downside to the port for me personally is that it means we will not see MP5 until whatever comes after the Drake or possibly at the very end of its life. But that probably happens regardless if it gets ported over or not, lol.

I think Switch games will need some kind of update patch to work on Drake.
 
MP games are usually pretty linear with backtracking and great art.

I'm not really seeing it held back by hardware anymore than say ToTK which seems to be pretty ambitious and has a lot more going on. Graphically speaking they could probably pop off with more power but I have no doubt we will have to wait long to see Nintendo put the hardware to great use.

Their titles usually get the best out of their hardware so I am not worried about it and rather not see that massive Switch install base get shafted on a game Nintendo said would come to Switch.

The biggest downside to the port for me personally is that it means we will not see MP5 until whatever comes after the Drake or possibly at the very end of its life. But that probably happens regardless if it gets ported over or not, lol.

I think Switch games will need some kind of update patch to work on Drake.
Yeah I have no doubt they’re gonna get to best out of the hardware with MP4.

It’s just after you play space games that look like Dead Space 2023 and Returnal, a boy is gonna dream about how good Metroid could potentially look lol.
 
I was just saying it doesn't have to launch with the next system and that Mario typically comes a few months after.
If the successor has nothing going on in terms of first party software besides Mario, I can see them launching the console with Mario.
 
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Similarly, the idea that the Switch's successor should follow the same boring conventions as the PS brand is straight-up anti-Nintendo, in that it doesn't convey what they're about, and that matters. It doesn't say "imagination". It's too safe. It's sterile. I'm not so keen on "Super", as that was very much of its time, BUT the assertion that 30+ years and generations after the SNES, people in 202X wouldn't get it blows my mind. A lot of people who grew up with that system would be parents now, and in the "Age Of Information", a younger generation who grew up with the Wii and its Virtual Console, and with wider discourse around such products, they would surely understand. But I feel we're heading towards an era of relative safety, and the Ordinal Numbering Convention will be adopted - So, it would be "Nintendo Switch (2nd Gen)". That would be considered "different enough" to the Cardinal Numbering Convention adopted by PlayStation and numerous phones, but safe enough to convey that it's a successor. Ultimately, the aim would be that "Switch" becomes the norm. I guess I could warm to "Advance", but the belief that Nintendo has to copy PlayStation's rules to have a successful transition is one that I (and hopefully they, too) must reject wholeheartedly.
I'm think a Switch 2nd Gen also is a good name & public will immediately notice that's it a new gen successor. I'm also believed that following PlayStation numbering is not anti Nintendo. But it's ok, everybody have opinions
 
I wish we can do a poll, or something here.

A show of hands of those that believe October 2023-March 2024 window vs a show of hands for those that believe October 2024-March 2025

And finally a show of hands of those that believe it’s beyond 2025…


@Dakhil is it possible to add a poll?
 
I wish we can do a poll, or something here.

A show of hands of those that believe October 2023-March 2024 window vs a show of hands for those that believe October 2024-March 2025

And finally a show of hands of those that believe it’s beyond 2025…


@Dakhil is it possible to add a poll?

I’m March 2024-Christmas 2024 window.
 
I think it will be for Switch redacted. Square Enix really want to make it big, especially for us in NA and Europe. I'm not sure that DQXI sold as much as they wanted outside of Japan, and that's why they are changing things for DQXII. It will also be on PS5 I guess.
SE absolutely screwed up their development timeline for DQ; it has nothing to do with wanting to make it big. If they want better sales out West then their aversion to marketing games isn’t helping nor is their spotty localization efforts.
 
Poll #3: When do you think is the launch window for Nintendo's new hardware?
So since ReddDreadtheLead asked, and I'm curious myself, I've created a poll asking when do you think is the launch window for Nintendo's new hardware, which everyone can vote on here.

I also suggest checking out poll #2, which I've made a threadmark for.
 
I think we're overblowing the whole numbers thing; what difference would it make that Nintendo would start using a similar nomenclature to Sony? This might be controversial, but I think Nintendo will be just fine sticking to whatever's "boring". I have no doubt that they can do whatever is necessary to make their next system stand out while communicating that it's mostly the same, but way better. Also, I'm sorry, but Switch 2nd Gen is kind of a mouthful, a little too wordy and not concise enough.
 
One option is to remove SD card, and offer models with internal storage from 128GB to 512 GB (or even 1TB).

The 128GB one will be $399, while the most expensive one can be $699

Just like what the smart phone industry has done years ago.
Yuck. No.

Whenever the Smartphone industry does moves like that, it feels less like progress and more like cutting off one's nose to spite one's face.
 
So since ReddDreadtheLead asked, and I'm curious myself, I've created a poll asking when do you think is the launch window for Nintendo's new hardware, which everyone can vote on here.

I also suggest checking out poll #2, which I've made a threadmark for.
A lot more folks for 2023 than I thought.

Ever since the alleged Pokemon leaker, I'm team 1st Quarter Winter - Spring 2024
 
Imo there's like a 70% chance Switch 2 is its actual name. Furukawa-era Ninty is much more conservative, and after the complete failure of the Wii U, I imagine Nintendo wants it to be extra extra clear about what REDACTED actually is
 
So since ReddDreadtheLead asked, and I'm curious myself, I've created a poll asking when do you think is the launch window for Nintendo's new hardware, which everyone can vote on here.

I also suggest checking out poll #2, which I've made a threadmark for.
#Team2023 😌

I think we're overblowing the whole numbers thing; what difference would it make that Nintendo would start using a similar nomenclature to Sony? This might be controversial, but I think Nintendo will be just fine sticking to whatever's "boring". I have no doubt that they can do whatever is necessary to make their next system stand out while communicating that it's mostly the same, but way better. Also, I'm sorry, but Switch 2nd Gen is kind of a mouthful, a little too wordy and not concise enough.
Like a fellow user suggested: I think Nintendo is juggling between Super and 2.

Furukawa-era Ninty is much more conservative,
Excuse my ignorance, but what gives you this impression?
 
I don't know why the next Switch launching with a 3D Mario would be such a sure thing when that's only ever happened once.

Seems that usually comes around 6-12 months after their consoles launches.
A main thing is we're just overdue for a 3D Mario. Galaxy -> Galaxy 2 -> 3D World -> Odyssey there were 3-4 years between each game, and it's now been 5 1/2, with the record being 6 between 64 and Sunshine. Being prepared as a showpiece for the next system is an easy explanation for why we didn't see a new release on Switch in the last few years. If not releasing until a year after launch would be intentional, that would bring the gap to 7+ years, at which point I'd be back to wondering why they didn't do an Odyssey 2 and still have 4+ years to work on the Redacted game.
Oh right, I’ve been meaning to ask, but how come it is believed that MP4 is soon?

I, personally, am not seeing much to indicate that it is soon (by March 31st 2024 soon).

And do not think MP1 Remaster is solid enough of an idea to point to that.
It seems like MP1 Remaster was sat on for quite some time, so it's release means SOMETHING changed. Whether that's
  • Prepping the world for Metroid Prime 4.
  • Needed more content for 2023.
  • Random chance.
We can all decide what we think fits best.
I wonder if dragon quest 12 will be on og switch or if it will be a (redacted) title I feel like it will be because it would be a system seller in Japan because dragon quest is insanely huge there and if so I wonder if they're waiting to show gameplay footage because (redacted) isn't out yet I feel like Nintendo and the dragon quest team are definitely in talks considering Nintendo is almost always the most sold gaming console in Japan
Depends how far out it is, I guess. Dragon Quest has released on the system with the biggest userbase even if the successor is already out (Dragon Quest VII) or even if they have to make a special version for it (Dragon Quest XI). I think it'd have to be pretty far off for them not to be worried about needing the Switch userbase to sell to.
It's time for dragon quest builders 3
Why is it taking so long? Hardware limits?
It didn't seem to push huge numbers, so I wonder if they just gave up on it. Like, there's no Dragon Quest Swords 2 either. That said, it didn't do worse than other spinoffs of recent years.
 
As much as I want to keep watching that video for a more informed opinion on it, I don't think I can go through it without my eyes rolling over the back of my head. The few arguments that I saw just seem to lack nuance and are made in bad faith, even going over stuff that was already debunked in this thread. And the comments, oh GOD the comments! It seems like people genuinely believe that Nintendo's next system won't take after the Switch form factor and will fail if it did otherwise because the Wii U was a sequel and it failed or how the SNES underperformed. Maybe he makes some more convincing arguments, but i dunno, man; felt like I was in a Bizzaro dimension reading those comments. Maybe I've made a bubble for myself by staying in this thread for so long, but still. If any of y'all have watched the video to its completion, feel free to tell me how crazy/right I was, cuz I just can't do it.......
You're not wrong. I watched it all, and it just basically seemed like the creator was a crypto PlayStation fanboi trying to bait Nintendo fans. I think he lost all credence when he tried to make the point that all the PS generations were uniquely different :ROFLMAO:
 
So since ReddDreadtheLead asked, and I'm curious myself, I've created a poll asking when do you think is the launch window for Nintendo's new hardware, which everyone can vote on here.

I also suggest checking out poll #2, which I've made a threadmark for.
Looking back at polls 1 and 2, there seems to be quite an optimism bias (sooner, cheaper) on this thread. I'm not criticising, I just voted the same way myself, but it's worth noting and being aware that our perceived consensuses may be skewed
 
I was previously thinking that MP4 would be cross-gen but Nate being confident about MP4 coming out this FY and saying Switch 2 coming out this FY doesn't line up with stuff he's heard makes me think MP4 development is making good progress but is only being made for Switch 1 for now.
 
Looking back at polls 1 and 2, there seems to be quite an optimism bias (sooner, cheaper) on this thread. I'm not criticising, I just voted the same way myself, but it's worth noting and being aware that our perceived consensuses may be skewed
I noticed that too. At least now, we have some grounds to back up our optimism, so it isn't completely unfounded. Though I'm curious, what lead a lot of y'all to believe that Drake was coming 2H 2022? I only joined in January, so I'm only aware of the conversation from that point in time.

Also, I wouldn't call a $400-$450 price point optimistic. I find that price range fairly realistic for a premium product, especially if Nintendo wants to fade out V2 and sell more OLEDs.
 
Yeah I have no doubt they’re gonna get to best out of the hardware with MP4.

It’s just after you play space games that look like Dead Space 2023 and Returnal, a boy is gonna dream about how good Metroid could potentially look lol.
What's the baseline of good GFX for you? I would be quite happy if MP4 can match and surpass Halo 4 GFX, but I understand that's a low bar.
 
I noticed that too. At least now, we have some grounds to back up our optimism, so it isn't completely unfounded. Though I'm curious, what lead a lot of y'all to believe that Drake was coming 2H 2022? I only joined in January, so I'm only aware of the conversation from that point in time.

Also, I wouldn't call a $400-$450 price point optimistic. I find that price range fairly realistic for a premium product, especially if Nintendo wants to fade out V2 and sell more OLEDs.
Yeah. I doubt they’ll reduce the price of existing Switch SKUs. They’ll fase out the OG and continue to reaffirm the OLED as the replacement Switch. That way they can sell a Switch $50-100 more than the OLED, and communicate via price that it’s a successor, more recent console
 
I was previously thinking that MP4 would be cross-gen but Nate being confident about MP4 coming out this FY and saying Switch 2 coming out this FY doesn't line up with stuff he's heard makes me think MP4 development is making good progress but is only being made for Switch 1 for now.
MP4 / switch / switch 2
 
Hypothetically speaking if next gen hardware were to release early 2024, how soon do you guys think we could expect the next installment in the Mario Kart franchise? Is it very likely to see that as a launch title?
 

gSKEidl.jpg
 
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
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