stodesign12
Bob-omb
Nintendo Twitch, obviouslyI personnally hate this kind of thing. It's impossible to pronounce lol
Nintendo Twitch, obviouslyI personnally hate this kind of thing. It's impossible to pronounce lol
Yea, I would like them to push the level design and simulation/ physics/ AI beyond what those ancient jaguars are capable of.Most likely because the PS5 version would be not as good as if it was next-gen only.
What rumbling?Any additional rumbling about the fabled 9.25 hint ?
That was in a direct speculation thread, he almost certainly meant that as a guess for when the direct was going to be.Any additional rumbling about the fabled 9.25 hint ?
Somehow, I forgot to share this, but here's some non-scientific observations regarding the Nintendo Switch Lite in Japan.
I imagine if you’re doing most/all of your playing on the go then the Lite is a more appealing buy. It’s not totally surprising it would be overrepresented in the wild.I find this to be so funny, because the sales don’t reflect this lol
The Switch hardware situation appears to be very close to the DS, but not quite as good. Both hardwares peaked at quarter 17. Five quarters later Switch is down about 24% while DS was down 13%. That same quarter 3DS was announced, and the rest of DS's entire lifetime (25.13m) was less than the previous year had been (27.11m).Those older consoles weren’t “kneecapped” because they were already on a decline in terms of hardware sales. They were by all means slowing down. Nintendo announced the 3DS almost a year in advance and they also slashed DS prices in the fall.
...
Neither of those kind of situations are playing out right now with the Switch. It’s still tremendously successful and is poised to have another monster holiday.
But it is a reflection!... kinda. Sorta. Close.I find this to be so funny, because the sales don’t reflect this lol
To be fair, GTA V ports from after 2015 would only exist to milk the online. The first years of GTA VI would be about hyping up the story mode part.If GTA V didn’t make it to Switch due to NSO limitations (according to Nate), I don’t see GTA VI making the jump either, even if Drake could theoretically handle a Series S-based port
Anecdotally speaking, I can vouch that they are in fact anecdotal data!I imagine if you’re doing most/all of your playing on the go then the Lite is a more appealing buy. It’s not totally surprising it would be overrepresented in the wild.
But that’s also why anecdotal data is anecdotal!
This is actually perfect. Let’s assume they are OLED models, which is the direct upgrade at the moment to the Lite models.But it is a reflection!... kinda. Sorta. Close.
Take the 1/4 being non-Lites, change non-Lites to Lites and we're close to the sales ratio. Just gotta lower that 1/4 to a tad below 1/5...
Sooo close to 'wow, that anecdote is the exact opposite of the sales'.
If we get RDR2 on Drake then GTA6 is to be expected imoIf GTA V didn’t make it to Switch due to NSO limitations (according to Nate), I don’t see GTA VI making the jump either, even if Drake could theoretically handle a Series S-based port
To everyone who think ToTK will look better on Drake. Yes, it will. Will it look substantionaly better than on the base Switch? No. This game was not build with Drake in mind. And I still don't think it's launching date and date with it.
it's most likely GTAO that prevented GTA5 from making the jump. and I'm not sure if it's NSO given all the other online games that hit the system unless Nate heard specifically it was the online service. to that, I'd assume it's a problem on Rockstar's end.If GTA V didn’t make it to Switch due to NSO limitations (according to Nate), I don’t see GTA VI making the jump either, even if Drake could theoretically handle a Series S-based port
Personally, I was thinking that maybe Nintendo could use the Joy-Cons to denote "II" if Nintendo were to call new hardware the "Nintendo Switch II".On another note, I went back to looking at designing simple Nintendo Switch 2 logos... I rather like this take:
Repeating the rounded corner box feels nice to me. Oh and I can't wait to see something like this show up on a game box:
They're already so strongly associated with the Switch brand in general that it seems like that might lead to confusion.Personally, I was thinking that maybe Nintendo could use the Joy-Cons to denote "II" if Nintendo were to call new hardware the "Nintendo Switch II".
NiiiiccccceeeeeI completely disagree with this. If dev kits have been out to 3rd parties for quite awhile now, imagine how long internal Nintendo Studios have been working with the expected specs? For sure, those numbers are probably moving targets, and technically you'd be correct to say TotK wasn't built ground up for Drake... HOWEVER I almost guarantee Nintendo's probably highest profile release in the launch window of their new hardware will take as much advantage of said hardware as they have time to squeeze in. It's why I believe they delayed it in the first place!
On another note, I went back to looking at designing simple Nintendo Switch 2 logos... I rather like this take:
Repeating the rounded corner box feels nice to me. Oh and I can't wait to see something like this show up on a game box:
Power draw scaling is predominantly quadratic (it should be dominated by voltage squared), not linear. That's why the curve looks like it starts slow then shoots upward as you get closer to the upper end.Anecdotally speaking, I can vouch that they are in fact anecdotal data!
This is actually perfect. Let’s assume they are OLED models, which is the direct upgrade at the moment to the Lite models.
It really is the exact opposite lol
On another note, if I did the math right, (5nm) 7 A78 @ ~2.1GHz should consume about 3W? With the OS core it would all be less than 3.3W I think?
Now imagine this with a slightly denser battery…. It could be possible to squeeze it.
I’m dreaming I know….
It’s weird, I was looking at the comparison charts, and it seems to scale weirdly. If at 2.6 GHz for the cortex A77 it consumes 1 W. The cortex A78 on the otherhand at 3GHz consumes 1 W. However, on the other comparison, they have the A77 at 2.3 GHz and that is twice the energy consumption that the a A78 at 2.1GHz has.
Now of course this factors in the different nodes, but if 2.6GHz is 1W, theoretically 2.3GHz is 0.88W
And if the A78 @ 2.1GHz consumes roughly half of that, so ~0.4W at that clock speed, it seems like there’s a scaling factor at play and causes the A78 to really shoot up the closer it gets to the 3GHz line.
Now I don’t think that they’ll do 3GHz or close to that, and maybe I’m reading the chart wrong, but it seems like 2.1GHz is less than half a watt.
Just trying to extrapolate from this that is, I’m ready to accept being very wrong about it.
But who knows?
No, it’s just pessimistic despair that, due to years of unfounded hope for such titles appearing on hot-selling Nintendo hardware, combined with Nintendo’s own past mistakes on the subject and developers continuously sticking their feet into their mouth so vigorously that they can taste kneecap (see example: Penny Blood dev, RGG studio head Yokoyama), has developed into “doomer”-ish incredulity.Do the people that downplay third party support and say it will never improve have Stockholm syndrome? Like maybe they’ve been so used to the tech gap, “withered technology”, and lacking traditional AAA third party software, that the idea of better or more support scares them?
It’s okay. Things are different now. You can dream of a better third party landscape. Have some faith and optimism.
This post was perfect for someone like me who wants to keep up with this thread but the tech jargon always ends up way over my head. Thanks for putting it together!Hey OldPuck, it's me again.
Oh hey, Anonymous Lurker, how is it going?
I noticed the thread got pinned, and thought I'd take a peek.
There is a lot of information in the OP if you wanna catch up.
Oh, I can't do that. There is just... so much info. Also, I'm not super technical, so even if I did read all of it, it would go over my head. Could you just tell me what we know.
Um... I honestly probably can't do that.
So you don't actually know anything?!?
We know more about this console than maybe any other unreleased console, ever.
Why can't you tell me anything then?
Imagine that you had the diagrams for a brand new car engine. You take them to an engineer, and excitedly ask questions about the car - how fast will it go? "Well, it depends on what sort of chasis they use..." what's the MPG like? "well, depends on how aerodynamic the body is and if they rate it for higher or lower RPMs" Don't you even know what the stereo system will be like??? "uh, absolutely not..."
It's the same here. We know a lot about the chip that the Next Switch will use, but there are also a lot of blanks. And we have good guesses for those blanks! But you don't care about that, you care about the games right?
Yeah, basically.
And a lot of smart people have made a lot of smart discoveries about the thing, but if I start saying specifics, I guarantee less than 1/3 of the regulars will agree with my final conclusions. At least 1 thing will be controversial. And that's why there is still a thread going even when there isn't new info.
It's like trying to solve a crossword puzzle when some of the clues are missing or blurry. We've actually filled a lot of it in, but the rest are reasonable guesses, or guesses based on guesses, or guesses based on those. It gets real tenuous after a while.
Okay but can't you tell me anything?
I'll tell you what I'll do. I'm going to compile the current as of September 18, 2022 state of affairs below. I'm going to summarize the best guesses, and I'm going to organize it from stuff we're 90% confident in all the way to "Guesses upon guesses upon guesses".
But I'm going to hide it all, because there has been a trend of disreputable people making bad-faith content out of the speculation here, and that causes lots of problems. I'm also going to hide chunks behind spoiler tags.
I'm also going to update things here in the inevitable backlash as my fellow thread-dwellers correct me, but I'm not going to update this post as new data comes in. Got it?
Got it.
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
Update: Clarification from @Look over there
Who's that? An employee?Talking about rumors, that brazilian nintendo guy said that maybe ridge racer 8 for switch wasn’t cancelled.
Wouldn’t surprised me its going to be a Switch title announced alongside next HW. Generally this racer games are a good showcase of new hardware capabilities. Microsoft has Forza and Sony has Gran Turismo, so maybe Nintendo got interest on getting Ridge Racer ?.
Hmm, then would the assumption be correct or incorrect in this case? 2.1GHz isn’t 0.7W but like, ~0.4W?Power draw scaling is predominantly quadratic (it should be dominated by voltage squared), not linear. That's why the curve looks like it starts slow then shoots upward as you get closer to the upper end.
-
@oldpuck
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
Earlier napkin match had A78 on 7nm 1.7Ghz at 0.5W, which tracks with this and ARM's advertised 20% win for the node change.My napkin math/ballpark guess for A78 on N5 @ 2.1 Ghz would be about 0.49 watts.
If we're going from the 3 Ghz at 1 watt figure, I divide 3 by 2.1 to get the proportional increase in frequency, square it by hitting x^2 to get the approximate proportional increase in power, then flip it around by hitting 1/x.
Considering that TSMC's N6 process node offers 18% higher logic density compared to TSMC's N7 process node, but offers the same performance and power efficiency as TSMC's N7 process node, and TSMC's N5 process node offers 1.8x higher logical density, and offers 15% higher performance at iso-power or consumes 30% less power at iso-performance, compared to TSMC's N7 process node, I do wonder how much power the Cortex-A78 consumes using TSMC's N6 process node?My napkin math/ballpark guess for A78 on N5 @ 2.1 Ghz would be about 0.49 watts.
If we're going from the 3 Ghz at 1 watt figure, I divide 3 by 2.1 to get the proportional increase in frequency, square it by hitting x^2 to get the approximate proportional increase in power, then flip it around by hitting 1/x.
Necro Felipe, thats his twitterWho's that? An employee?
For me personally I just want all the software & devs to make bigger software outside the realm of mid-tier. I’ve always used it as an example but mobile/PC is what I am looking for in terms of support. Gets all types of support including exclusives for that particular system only w/devs making games for that system only.Do the people that downplay third party support and say it will never improve have Stockholm syndrome? Like maybe they’ve been so used to the tech gap, “withered technology”, and lacking traditional AAA third party software, that the idea of better or more support scares them?
It’s okay. Things are different now. You can dream of a better third party landscape. Have some faith and optimism.
My napkin math/ballpark guess for A78 on N5 @ 2.1 Ghz would be about 0.49 watts.
If we're going from the 3 Ghz at 1 watt figure, I divide 3 by 2.1 to get the proportional increase in frequency, square it by hitting x^2 to get the approximate proportional increase in power, then flip it around by hitting 1/x.
Thanks! Hm, ok, so if I try to lower itEarlier napkin match had A78 on 7nm 1.7Ghz at 0.5W, which tracks with this and ARM's advertised 20% win for the node change.
This almost exactly tracks where I was at when trying to engineer Drake out of Orin's power numbers, and why I ultimately changed by mind about the viability of 8nm.Thanks! Hm, ok, so if I try to lower it
1.9GHz would be ~0.4W per core I think, by 7 would be ~2.8W, having the OS core at around 1.3GHz should be about 0.19W (rounded up)
So, they can fit all that in around 3W just for the CPU. OS core I’m a bit iffy on though…. If they can clock it that low.
Anyway….
That is a ~13.3x performance increase for the CPU alone in only ~3W compared to the Switch and it’s ~1.83W budget (estimated) that the original Quad Core A57 setup uses.
That’s a monstrous leap.
This increase would be a bigger one than the PS4 to 5 or One to Series X. In a slight bump in total power usage.
Just for comparison for others reading! Doesn’t mean it’ll outperform them though!
A78's power curve shouldn't be significantly different from the A77's (-4% power draw ISO-process is not going to radically change the napkin math), so I think that subbing the A77's 2.6 Ghz@1 watt on N7 should function well enough for conversation purposes. Besides, 2.6 * 1.15 = 2.99, which is pretty close enough to 3.Considering that TSMC's N6 process node offers 18% higher logic density compared to TSMC's N7 process node, but offers the same performance and power efficiency as TSMC's N7 process node, and TSMC's N5 process node offers 1.8x higher logical density, and offers 15% higher performance at iso-power or consumes 30% less power at iso-performance, compared to TSMC's N7 process node, I do wonder how much power the Cortex-A78 consumes using TSMC's N6 process node?
Yeah, though these are on 5nm I should note. It would be lower of course on the 7nm.This almost exactly tracks where I was at when trying to engineer Drake out of Orin's power numbers, and why I ultimately changed by mind about the viability of 8nm.
I’d imagine many users are buying the lite as a 2nd model and using that for their commutes while the hybrid model is at homeI find this to be so funny, because the sales don’t reflect this lol
Kinda defeats the purpose of a hybrid if you ask me.I’d imagine many users are buying the lite as a 2nd model and using that for their commutes while the hybrid model is at home
that's so fucked upI’d imagine many users are buying the lite as a 2nd model and using that for their commutes while the hybrid model is at home
Minor typo on your release date part in the hidden-text section, 1H 2023, not 1H 2022 (that already happened)Hey OldPuck, it's me again.
Oh hey, Anonymous Lurker, how is it going?
I noticed the thread got pinned, and thought I'd take a peek.
There is a lot of information in the OP if you wanna catch up.
Oh, I can't do that. There is just... so much info. Also, I'm not super technical, so even if I did read all of it, it would go over my head. Could you just tell me what we know.
Um... I honestly probably can't do that.
So you don't actually know anything?!?
We know more about this console than maybe any other unreleased console, ever.
Why can't you tell me anything then?
Imagine that you had the diagrams for a brand new car engine. You take them to an engineer, and excitedly ask questions about the car - how fast will it go? "Well, it depends on what sort of chasis they use..." what's the MPG like? "well, depends on how aerodynamic the body is and if they rate it for higher or lower RPMs" Don't you even know what the stereo system will be like??? "uh, absolutely not..."
It's the same here. We know a lot about the chip that the Next Switch will use, but there are also a lot of blanks. And we have good guesses for those blanks! But you don't care about that, you care about the games right?
Yeah, basically.
And a lot of smart people have made a lot of smart discoveries about the thing, but if I start saying specifics, I guarantee less than 1/3 of the regulars will agree with my final conclusions. At least 1 thing will be controversial. And that's why there is still a thread going even when there isn't new info.
It's like trying to solve a crossword puzzle when some of the clues are missing or blurry. We've actually filled a lot of it in, but the rest are reasonable guesses, or guesses based on guesses, or guesses based on those. It gets real tenuous after a while.
Okay but can't you tell me anything?
I'll tell you what I'll do. I'm going to compile the current as of September 18, 2022 state of affairs below. I'm going to summarize the best guesses, and I'm going to organize it from stuff we're 90% confident in all the way to "Guesses upon guesses upon guesses".
But I'm going to hide it all, because there has been a trend of disreputable people making bad-faith content out of the speculation here, and that causes lots of problems. I'm also going to hide chunks behind spoiler tags.
I'm also going to update things here in the inevitable backlash as my fellow thread-dwellers correct me, but I'm not going to update this post as new data comes in. Got it?
Got it.
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
Update: Clarification from @Look over there
Does someone have Japanese sales numbers? Because this tracks with everything I saw in Japan, as well. I literally never saw a non-Lite Switch except for the one I brought with me. Which means I saw more 3DS's than switchable Switches.I find this to be so funny, because the sales don’t reflect this lol
Kinda defeats the purpose of a hybrid if you ask me.
Shipments rather than sales, but the three models in Japan through the middle of this year.Does someone have Japanese sales numbers? Because this tracks with everything I saw in Japan, as well. I literally never saw a non-Lite Switch except for the one I brought with me. Which means I saw more 3DS's than switchable Switches.
Does someone have Japanese sales numbers? Because this tracks with everything I saw in Japan, as well. I literally never saw a non-Lite Switch except for the one I brought with me. Which means I saw more 3DS's than switchable Switches.
Probably not really surprising. The only people buying the Lite are probably those who actively want to have them around outside, and/or attempt to play them outdoors, which is seemingly a small population even in Japan, since most people just turn to mobile games in those situation rather than carry around a dedicated device.I find this to be so funny, because the sales don’t reflect this lol
To everyone who think ToTK will look better on Drake. Yes, it will. Will it look substantionaly better than on the base Switch? No. This game was not build with Drake in mind. And I still don't think it's launching date and date with it.