StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[ILikeFeet]

Oppo uploaded direct feed

Oppo demonstrated its technology's prowess using a first-person shooter game called "Camp Guard," with over 2000 physical models, 800,000 triangles, and close to 100 textures at Snapdragon Summit 2022. The interactive demo showcases improved shadows, lights, and reflections that realistically react to the model's movement and the player's camera angle. Oppo claims its first-person shooter demo can run at 720p resolution at 60 frames per second for half an hour on a room-temperature device featuring the Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 SoC.

https://www.xda-developers.com/oppo-ray-tracing-mobile-partnership-qualcomm/

Here's direct feed of Justice Mobile. I think







Not Qualcomm, but here's footage of ray tracing on Mediatek's Dimensity 9000 with ARM's Immortalis gpu (which has RT)

 

[Aether]

By a series of coincidences that largely began due to mixed-up reporting on the OLED, we learned about the new Switch model way too early. This was reinforced by the possibly once-in-a-lifetime event of the Nvidia hack providing additional corroborating details. The fact that we have all this information has probably led some people to feel the hardware must be imminent for going on a year now, but since the series of coincidences hasn't persisted*, the human instinct to see patterns in everything is swinging back to the other end of the spectrum and deciding that this actually all means the hardware is years away and trying hard to find reasons to explain away the information that was learned before.

In reality, we're still entirely on track for the kind of hardware development timeline you would expect if design decisions happened by the end of 2019 and development was in full swing in 2020, possibly elongated but not majorly so by the pandemic. But being in this thread every day and talking every day about how it's not happening yet and thinking about it all the time will stretch that timeline into an eternity. Let's acknowledge that while speculation and discussion and debate are fun, there is a level of spiraling engagement with a subject like this that can become exhausting, and color perceptions of the hardware situation itself.

*On that subject, besides the continued references to T239 in public Nvidia code, I think it's underdiscussed how the Nvidia hack may have had a chilling effect on industry chatter and the usual reporting about new Nintendo hardware. Reputable outlets wouldn't want to pick back up on "new Nvidia chip to enable DLSS in upcoming Switch model" reporting when precisely that info was the subject of a criminal computer breach (even if in the mainstream that event wasn't strongly linked to Nintendo). It also happened at exactly the perfect time, coming as it did on the heels of the OLED mixup and subsequent beclowning around Nintendo hardware rumors.

Not quite. There are 3 other aspects:
iwatas claim that apple/android are doing it correctly (people asumed hardware would be iterated faster like smartphones)
the "leaks" at the start of people already seing newer stronger units getting tested
the new concept of mid gen refreshes that sony and microsoft brought to the game, people expected nintendo to follow them.
When the lite was being anounced, people expexted a "pro" version to follow... instead a new version followed that was the same but with longer battery life. When the oled came, we already had a revision, so nobody expected another revision just for the display.

Its a weird generation for nintendo, and its not just because of the leaks that people are expecting a new model every moment now since its release. The leak only grounded it in a really sollid timeframe (fall 2022 to fall 2023).

To add more context to a potential Drake launch in 2023, it might be worth our time to check the PS2's situation. It sold 223M units of software and 16M of consoles in the fiscal year ending Mar 06. which is the year its successor was launched. Interestingly, the hardware sales that year were actually higher than the one prior.

The Switch's current situation is more or less comparable with its high HW and SW sales figures. But that's where the similarities end; despite being in a mature phase, the PS brand overall was making already less an less money at that point whereas Nintendo is keeping making more and more. The decline between 02 and 05 was rather brutal:

Now, to be clear, I frankly have no idea why Playstation's income was decreasing before the PS3 launch but I am really interested in the answer. If we knew more about the reasons behind Playstation's failing income back then, we could compare both situations in a bit more details and eventually speculate more accurately about what could motivate Nintendo to release Drake next year (or not).

Also, I took the PS2 to PS3 transition as an example but the same is true for the others (PS1 to PS2 and PS3 to PS4).

casual titles, generally less titles per household (people always say 60$ are to low now, but they ignore that this enabled the industry to get to the point where people are buying many more games, so overall more investment in the industry)
im confident that the sales increased beause of rediculously low retail prices and some great bundles. by the time the ps3 was on its way the ps2 was dirt cheap.

The answer for the cratering operating profit is simple: PS3 was a money pit from minute one, so much so that it got Ken Kutaragi booted out of the division he all but founded. There's nothing more that needs to be said for the reason why, it's been extensively analyzed and always comes back to the same conclusion.

That to, its still bafling how they could have thought that the console was worth 600$ back then (and then cut the linux suport).
It was clearpy positioned as "this thing replaces everything, your media player, your gamign console, your pc, your music player".... and if you think of it that way then shure it could be worth that money...
but it could not do all of that, and there where many reasons why. it did most things that are not gaming worse then dedicated devices.

 

[Aether]

Oppo uploaded direct feed

https://www.xda-developers.com/oppo-ray-tracing-mobile-partnership-qualcomm/

Here's direct feed of Justice Mobile. I think







Not Qualcomm, but here's footage of ray tracing on Mediatek's Dimensity 9000 with ARM's Immortalis gpu (which has RT)

I mean... all fine and well, but this says nothing to me.
Its lacking context, like termal limit, etc.
The demo is fine but is it rendered on a phone? or on an development board that can be cooled easily?

 

[Simba1]

Anuthing credible new (info, leak, rumor) last month or two?

 

[Dude_lookinatleak]

Anuthing credible new (info, leak, rumor) last month or two?

Unless we want to keep Drake (rapper) sh*tposting, no, this thread will continue to run in circles until any new real information arrives. If you do not like it, there are other threads on this platform, including a tournament:

Master of the Time Trials

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe In each round, a track will be selected and you must do your best to complete the fastest time trial possible - faster than whoever you've been pitted against!

famiboards.com

 

[Concernt]

Centro Leaks on Twitter has been suspended (unsurprisingly), but they had a tweet referencing a new Switch next year. Interesting.

 

[Ojoloco]

Centro Leaks on Twitter has been suspended (unsurprisingly), but they had a tweet referencing a new Switch next year. Interesting.

Screenshot?

 

[Bonejack]

From what i gathered around the Pokemon leaks time recently, it's that CentroLeaks is considerd as posting a lot of bullshit on top of post-stealing legit stuff from others.

So best not to entertain that any further.

 

[Stinky Horse]

I read it as a lack of a need for new hardware, not a lack of new hardware. ie. a “Do we need new hardware in 2023 or not?” discussion.

Which is the critical question afaic.
There shouldn't be any doubt that Nvidia and Nintendo have the capability to put out a new device next year if they needed to, but it might not be ideal for their profits or how they want to deal with their software line up.
So can anyone explain why a cross gen TotK would be seen as a more compelling launch window title compared to an exclusive Mario Kart X? Because the latter looks highly unlikely to be due in the next 12 months at least.

 

[Cybergatuno]

Which is the critical question afaic.
There shouldn't be any doubt that Nvidia and Nintendo have the capability to put out a new device next year if they needed to, but it might not be ideal for their profits or how they want to deal with their software line up.
So can anyone explain why a cross gen TotK would be seen as a more compelling launch window title compared to an exclusive Mario Kart X? Because the latter looks highly unlikely to be due in the next 12 months at least.

I believe it's actually the right moment to release a successor (or a new member in the Switch family, I'm not interested in that discussion).

Most titles will still release on Switch. Most of Nintendo's AA cash grabs and remakes do not need more powerful hardware. They will capitalize on their 120+ millions install-base for years to come.

The new SoC is apparently ready. It looks impressive, but it may not be so by next year or later.

There is increasingly more competition in dedicated mobile gaming. There are lot of doubtful cloud devices, but there are also compelling one, such as the Aya Neos and the Steam Deck, which is increasing production. Better ones will come. It probably only affects Nintendo in the single-digit market share, barely, but this will grow rapidly.

Except in Japan, the Switch is loosing momentum, falling behind even Xbox in most markets in hardware sales. It's loosing momentum also in the news and collective mind-share. When accelerating a car, we shift the gear as soon as we start loosing momentum. A new Switch hardware would be the new shiny thing that everybody would talk about. Software sales are still healthy but maybe they won't be for long. Shifting the gear would keep those sales up for way longer.

It's increasingly difficult to port games to the Switch. Genshin Impact, Hogwarts's Legacy, Midnight Suns and a lot of others were indefinitely delayed. Titles that do release on Switch are often plagued by performance issues and most people choose to get them on other platforms. New hardware would get more of the shiny new games, helping sell the platform.

The new hardware would probably get prominent ports: RDR2, Cyberpunk, Elden Ring, a proper FIFA, etc. It would probably get the next Call of Duty. All of these would help sell the platform and print money for Nintendo.

This is just my 2 cts, but I do believe Nintendo needs to act now proactively, rather than later reactively and have another Wii U draught.

 

[Tulipe]

If i was nintendo and if we are talking about a true switch 2, i would wait MK X.

MK is the biggest seller of nintendo, it's also the biggest console seller and it will help to sell Nintendo Switch Online subscription.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Centro Leaks on Twitter has been suspended (unsurprisingly), but they had a tweet referencing a new Switch next year. Interesting.

Extrapolating from the tweet that he posted about the performance of how Pokémon Scarlet and Violet were doing on the system, as though it has any relevance to the Nintendo switch 2 is really misguided. And can mislead people. Let alone the fact that it was on a hacked Nintendo switch with claims of “Day 1 patch”. Nonetheless, Centro knows absolutely nothing because they just copy and paste information that people throw out elsewhere, they aren’t an insider, we shouldn’t even attempt to entertain that it means anything, especially something like this.

Screenshot?

Absolutely nothing you should even bother entertaining.

It’s as if Spawnwave said “this is what the game would look like on a new Nintendo switch model” and used a hacked switch who was overclocked.


I beg, beg that we don’t take anything and everything as meaning something without carefully going through the steps of verifying the information. It will lead to our downfall.

people always say 60$ are to low now

People?? Who is people?? I need to have a conversation with them… ignore the socks with rocks they are a decoration for the upcoming holidays…


Who out here saying “$60 are too low now”??

 

[Truno]

Centro Leaks on Twitter has been suspended (unsurprisingly), but they had a tweet referencing a new Switch next year. Interesting.

I don't have a screenshot of the tweet, but I do remember that the chain went something like this:

Centro: Uploads a video of Pokemon Scarlet running on an overclocked Switch at locked 30fps
Centro: "This is how the game should run on Switch 2"
Random Twitter user: "Can't wait to see it in 2024/25"
Centro: "See you in 2023"
Random Twitter user: "You said the same thing in 2019-2022, surely you'll be right this time"

(Centro has no sources)

 

[ILikeFeet]

I mean... all fine and well, but this says nothing to me.
Its lacking context, like termal limit, etc.
The demo is fine but is it rendered on a phone? or on an development board that can be cooled easily?

I mean, you should always take company provided numbers with a grain of salt. we won't know until the phones are out. but the biggest point is that the hardware is there and Qualcomm shown an example at sub-5W.

Which is the critical question afaic.
There shouldn't be any doubt that Nvidia and Nintendo have the capability to put out a new device next year if they needed to, but it might not be ideal for their profits or how they want to deal with their software line up.
So can anyone explain why a cross gen TotK would be seen as a more compelling launch window title compared to an exclusive Mario Kart X? Because the latter looks highly unlikely to be due in the next 12 months at least.

launching new, more expensive hardware that's backwards compatible (and games are forward compatible) wouldn't hurt their bottom line. it only raises it. people buying drake doesn't stop them from buying the game.

TotK isn't more compelling, we just know it exists and the franchise has a history of launching with new, extremely popular hardware. Twilight Princess on the wii and BotW on the switch shows that the method works, why not do it again if it's possible?

 

[Angel Whispers]

The messages where people tag Nate read like letters to Santa.

Very true. I don't know who needs to hear this, but your favourite Youtwitch Internet Gaming podcasters aren't "sources", or even "reliable", and more people need to stop treating them as such. They don't know any more than we do, and it serves only their interests to have you believe otherwise. I prefer not to give them my clicks, and any posts are treated with a small crystal, not even a mere pinch of salt. More people would do well to do the same. It's better for your health, and for theirs, as anything that isn't accurate can result in pile-ons and drive-by posts. I don't feel it's worth it. Until then, we have only the horse's mouth, and Nintendo will let us know the rest when they're ready. It will be good enough to play PS5/XS titles, and build on the Switch's success. That's as much as we know, and fans needn't panic. As for now, there's plenty to enjoy, some of you have backlogs, and it's a shame that rather than marvel at what's been achieved on a (sub)-10W portable envelope from 2017, some commentators deride it as a "toaster", "potato", or engage in bash-and-trash because it isn't doing what home consoles from 2020 are. It's disgusting that publications such as EuroGamer/DF are encouraging it, too, but coming from them, it's not a surprise.

 

[Aether]

I mean, you should always take company provided numbers with a grain of salt. we won't know until the phones are out. but the biggest point is that the hardware is there and Qualcomm shown an example at sub-5W.


launching new, more expensive hardware that's backwards compatible (and games are forward compatible) wouldn't hurt their bottom line. it only raises it. people buying drake doesn't stop them from buying the game.

TotK isn't more compelling, we just know it exists and the franchise has a history of launching with new, extremely popular hardware. Twilight Princess on the wii and BotW on the switch shows that the method works, why not do it again if it's possible?

Shure. But even if its RT... the demo just does not look that impressive to be honest?
Or is it just me.

People?? Who is people?? I need to have a conversation with them… ignore the socks with rocks they are a decoration for the upcoming holidays…


Who out here saying “$60 are too low now”??

I remember the topic when the 70$ price tag was anounced, every time when people are not shure if a game is worth a "full price" (->60$), when a dev mentiones that games sould cost more, when microtransactions in full price games are a topic...
in my experience its usually those that are on the edge of the graphically feasable or out for the big AAA experiences. Those that feel like the Series S is holding this generation back. (but not always)

 

[Brofield]

Unrelated, but for some reasons I’ve been getting random posts in this frilly font when I’m logged out.


I read this as if it were a stereotypical Aristocratic British man from the late 1800s, older and has a monocle, wears a butlers uniform and there was piano music playing in the background. He had a cup of tea in his hand.

My brain just switched to that… and this is oddly very specific…

Vivaldi's Four Seasons does play in my head while browsing Famiboards if I'm not listening to anything else; you might be onto something

 

[Deleted member 645]

Haven’t been in here in a while. Anything new?

 

[Gotdatmoneyy]

Very true. I don't know who needs to hear this, but your favourite Youtwitch Internet Gaming podcasters aren't "sources", or even "reliable", and more people need to stop treating them as such. They don't know any more than we do, and it serves only their interests to have you believe otherwise. I prefer not to give them my clicks, and any posts are treated with a small crystal, not even a mere pinch of salt. More people would do well to do the same. It's better for your health, and for theirs, as anything that isn't accurate can result in pile-ons and drive-by posts. I don't feel it's worth it. Until then, we have only the horse's mouth, and Nintendo will let us know the rest when they're ready. It will be good enough to play PS5/XS titles, and build on the Switch's success. That's as much as we know, and fans needn't panic. As for now, there's plenty to enjoy, some of you have backlogs, and it's a shame that rather than marvel at what's been achieved on a (sub)-10W portable envelope from 2017, some commentators deride it as a "toaster", "potato", or engage in bash-and-trash because it isn't doing what home consoles from 2020 are. It's disgusting that publications such as EuroGamer/DF are encouraging it, too, but coming from them, it's not a surprise.

I think you're being extra dramatic frankly. People want better performance. There aren't any moral victories for players having to play games with shitty performance because "look at how impressive it is that it runs". I don't actually give a fuck and neither do others. When performance starts to fall way behind then people will want better. It is Nintendo who set the precedent with upgraded platforms with the New 3DS. That platform enhanced a lot of titles.

There are phones running on power envelopes similar to the Switch that can run games way way better. We are past the point of the Switch being impressive for what it is doing. This isn't 2018.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

launching new, more expensive hardware that's backwards compatible (and games are forward compatible) wouldn't hurt their bottom line. it only raises it. people buying drake doesn't stop them from buying the game.

TotK isn't more compelling, we just know it exists and the franchise has a history of launching with new, extremely popular hardware. Twilight Princess on the wii and BotW on the switch shows that the method works, why not do it again if it's possible?

Edit: warning long post ahead

Just noticed, I’ll get to why I really quoted this post later but anyway. In the Nintendo launches that have included a 3D Mario, the games released within the year or so of the new console release. On occasions it released the same day. But Nintendo seems to aim to have it within the same year as the release.

Nintendo 64- 06/1996
Mario 64- 06/1996

GameCube- 09/2001
Mario Sunshine- 07/2002

Nintendo Wii- 11/2006
Mario Galaxy- 11/2007

Super Mario Galaxy 2 released 2010, no hardware

Nintendo Wii U- 11/2012
Mario 3D World- 11/2013

Nintendo Switch- 03/2017
Mario Odyssey- 10/2017

Nintendo DS- 11/2004
Mario 64 DS- 11/2004

Nintendo 3DS- 02/2011
Mario 3D Land- 11/2011



Meanwhile the real reason I quoted this, I feel like Zelda could apply if it was a consistent theme like 3D Mario. But the times they’ve done that is less consistent.

Ocarina of Time was November 1998, when the n64 was June 1996.

Majora’s Mask released with no hardware.

Wind Waker was December 2002 when the GCN was September 2001.

Twilight Princess was a launch title with the Nintendo Wii, November 2006.

Skyward Sword launched in November 2011.

Breath of the Wild launched in March 2017 with the switch.


Ocarina of Time 3D launched June 2011, a few months after the 3DS hit the market.


Quite frankly, nothing is really hinting that these two are tied to being one plus one product launch if we were to use precedents. In fact, it would suggest the contrary.


If anything, I think people should be focusing more on the suspicious absence of a 3D Mario after so long. Nintendo has historically tried to have a new 3D Mario within the first year or so of the products life on the market, more often than not. In fact, I don’t think the next 3D Mario will even hit the Nintendo switch if anyone believed that it would, and it’s actually going to be exclusive to the next system, to the chagrin of what people did not want to hear about this.


But Zelda? I don’t think nothing is pointing to it being a likely scenario. Possible? Yes, definitely what’s happening? Not really in my opinion.

Even to play the devils’ advocate here and go against my flow, if it launches in May, a new 3D Mario will follow within the year of the console’s life on the market. Whether it is A) In November to boost the holiday sales as best it can even if supply limited or B) in February or March of the following year before the Fiscal year ends and be a massive seller.



Ok back to analyzing Nintendo software product launches whatever… I’ll take the opportunity to use Mario Kart.

First Mario Kart for the SNES came out in August 1992. Not within a year of the SNES launch! SNES was 1990.

Mario Kart 64 was December 1996 for the N64. Within a year

Mario Kart Super Circuit was June 2001. Within a year of the GBA launch

Mario Kart Double Dash was November 2003 for the GCN. Not within a year!

Mario Kart DS was November 2005. About a year of the DS launch.

Mario Kart Wii was April 2008. Not within a year of the Wii launch!

Mario Kart 7 was December 2011. Within a year of the 3DS launch

Mario Kart 8 was May 2014. Not within a year of the Wii U launch!

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe was April 2017. Within a year of the Switch launch.



….I have a feeling that, with the next system, the Mario Kart will not be within a year of the system’s launch… clearly it’ll be for two years after the launch!


Please whoever is reading this, do not take that “it‘s not launching within a year next time” seriously, it’s just a funny pattern I noticed.







Anyway, this is the final part that I wanted to basically emphasize. It is not a good idea for Nintendo to overload the launch year with titles that are crucial for the longevity of the platform, but it’s also not good for them to space them out too far apart, that it makes it difficult for them to have a smooth cadence of Software rolling in.

Some people have the belief that they’re going to have a banging first year whenever the system launches, but they literally have to space it out for the year after and the year after that, and Nintendo is not afraid to withhold software if they need to because they aim for the long term game not the short term wins.

Nintendo has to carefully balance how much and what specific software to launch the new system with. It can be with a new Mario, a new Mario kart, a new Zelda, or a new donkey Kong, etc. What needs to be kept in mind is that it is not as simple as just repeating the Nintendo switch launch, and it is not as simple as repeating any of the previous launches with tweaks. Every launch lineup will be different and there’s no ifs, ands or buts about it.


It is a very delicate thing that they have to balance. Anyone that is assuming that they’re just gonna do exactly what they do with a Nintendo switch but in 2023 or 2024 or 2025 or whenever they believe that the system will actually launch has to accept the idea that they are looking at it from the lens of something like a causal fallacy or post hoc fallacy.


Then again my post is riddled with its own share of fallacies anyway .

But it’s good for thought.

 

[Bonejack]

Lanching in May 2023 would mean launching with prolly the most awaited Nintendo game, and still riding on the previous launches of what's likely the most exciting Pokemon game in years (not counting Arceus), and two evergreens, an old and a new one, still getting active support.

To me that feels like the most ideal timeframe.

 

[ShadowFox08]

Oppo uploaded direct feed

https://www.xda-developers.com/oppo-ray-tracing-mobile-partnership-qualcomm/

Here's direct feed of Justice Mobile. I think







Not Qualcomm, but here's footage of ray tracing on Mediatek's Dimensity 9000 with ARM's Immortalis gpu (which has RT)

I'm gonna ask that questiom... But how many TFLOPs is this thing?

Anyway, my biggest reason Drake will/should come out next year, is Totk (and MP4 to an extent). Nintendo has been awfully mum about the new Zelda game. We should have gotten a lot more info by now, but we've only gotten like two trailers. It also probably wouldn't have been delayed this much all the way to May, if Drake wasn't coming out mid next year. I'm not saying we would have gotten Zelda this year though, since Pokemon in November would have been enough for the holidays.. But either way, what they are doing is strategic.

I do expect Drake's reveal to showcase Totk, Pikmin 4, and maybe MP4 (or the latter for E3) in January/Feb. Pikmin 4 is probably gonna be a late summer or fall release.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Lanching in May 2023 would mean launching with prolly the most awaited Nintendo game, and still riding on the previous launches of what's likely the most exciting Pokemon game in years (not counting Arceus), and two evergreens, an old and a new one, still getting active support.

To me that feels like the most ideal timeframe.

Speaking of Pokémon, the games never launch close to the new system launch and are usually later. They help with the boost of the platform’s sales. But they have zero consistency to draw anything from.


Pokémon Red and Blue came out in 1996, several years later from the GB launch but it was the first entry so let’s exclude it for convenience sake for now….

Gold and Silver came out in 1999, year after the Color came out. Gen 2.

Ruby and Sapphire came out in 2002 first, when the GBA was 2001. Gen 3.

Pokémon Diamond and Pearl came out 2006, when the DS was 2004. Gen 4

Black and White came out 2010, after the DSi in 2008. Gen 5

X/Y came out in 2013, gen 6, 2 years after the 3DS launched

Sun and Moon came out in 2016, years after the N3DS ever launched. Gen 7

With the switch it’s weird, because LGPE came out over a year after the NSW launched. But the new generation(8) came out the following year, 2019. But LGPE wasn’t treated as a new gen, just on new hardware…

It was 2 years after the hardware hit in any case for that new generation.



Then Gen 9, is releasing in a few days November 2022

Gen 10 would at earliest be a 2025 game, and this wouldn’t release so soon after the console hits.


None of these ever hit so soon as to be bold within a year. They take over a year to hit the system. Partially because GF is slow, but also because it releasing later has the benefit of sales boost.

So, as a result I’m ruling out it as a launch title at all.



Why? Because they never bothered being one or used it for that. Yes I know Ultra Sun and Moon released the year the switch came out, but that was for the 3DS, not the switch. And the same applies for the other third version releases.





Question: the job listing a few days ago/ weeks ago… was it about a game targeting 2025 or is that the assumption people made? Because i remember something about next generation hardware which, to be frank, we didn’t need a job listing to confirm that since it was painfully obvious… but I digress. Just curious.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Shure. But even if its RT... the demo just does not look that impressive to be honest?
Or is it just me.

this is a topic I think about a lot. I feel that people have too high an expectation of ray tracing. not that that it can't meet their expectations, as ray tracing does raise the ceiling. but people forget that the floor with RT is also very low. it's how we can have RT on mobile in the first place (or even an SNES!). the most common usages of RT won't be this transformative effect that makes games look like pixar movies, but replace effects that was formerly screen space and/or prebaked.

Xenoblade 3 with ray traced shadows, AO, and reflections won't be transformative, but the image will look damn better because it's not filled to the brim with low resolution shadows, halo'd characters, and broken water reflections. and that game is FULL of them

I'm gonna ask that questiom... But how many TFLOPs is this thing?

that's the best part, we don't know! mobile gpus are notorious for having practically no spec sheets. most of the time, we luck out in getting just the clocks.

 

[Bonejack]

Speaking of Pokémon, the games never launch close to the new system launch and are usually later. They help with the boost of the platform’s sales. But they have zero consistency to draw anything from.


Pokémon Red and Blue came out in 1996, several years later from the GB launch but it was the first entry so let’s exclude it for convenience sake for now….

Gold and Silver came out in 1999, year after the Color came out. Gen 2.

Ruby and Sapphire came out in 2002 first, when the GBA was 2001. Gen 3.

Pokémon Diamond and Pearl came out 2006, when the DS was 2004. Gen 4

Black and White came out 2010, after the DSi in 2008. Gen 5

X/Y came out in 2013, gen 6, 2 years after the 3DS launched

Sun and Moon came out in 2016, years after the N3DS ever launched. Gen 7

With the switch it’s weird, because LGPE came out over a year after the NSW launched. But the new generation(8) came out the following year, 2019. But LGPE wasn’t treated as a new gen, just on new hardware…

It was 2 years after the hardware hit in any case for that new generation.



Then Gen 9, is releasing in a few days November 2022

Gen 10 would at earliest be a 2025 game, and this wouldn’t release so soon after the console hits.


None of these ever hit so soon as to be bold within a year. They take over a year to hit the system. Partially because GF is slow, but also because it releasing later has the benefit of sales boost.

So, as a result I’m ruling out it as a launch title at all.



Why? Because they never bothered being one or used it for that. Yes I know Ultra Sun and Moon released the year the switch came out, but that was for the 3DS, not the switch. And the same applies for the other third version releases.





Question: the job listing a few days ago/ weeks ago… was it about a game targeting 2025 or is that the assumption people made? Because i remember something about next generation hardware which, to be frank, we didn’t need a job listing to confirm that since it was painfully obvious… but I digress. Just curious.

What, oh no no! I'm not proposing a new mainline Pokemon game launching in 2023 with/for Drake. I just think that ScarVio is still in the "fresh and interesting" enough window for Drake to benefit of.

But there might be a bigger DLC for ScarVio launching in 2023, that's an additional advantage for Drake i'd say.

 

[hologram]

I read this as if it were a stereotypical Aristocratic British man from the late 1800s, older and has a monocle, wears a butlers uniform and there was piano music playing in the background. He had a cup of tea in his hand.

I think that's how @Raccoon actually talks

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

What, oh no no! I'm not proposing a new mainline Pokemon game launching in 2023 with/for Drake. I just think that ScarVio is still in the "fresh and interesting" enough window for Drake to benefit of.

But there might be a bigger DLC for ScarVio launching in 2023, that's an additional advantage for Drake i'd say.

Oh I know,

I just took your post as the opportunity to make a new post to go into another analysis of other bigger releases that I saw speculated by people on why it can launch way later. Like 2025.

Instead of having to edit my previous post and making it even longer.

I think that's how @Raccoon actually talks

I also got it for @Derachi

Sucks that I didn’t take a screenshot

 

[Mr.Gamerson]

Zelda TOTK was delayed to May of 2023, which is the next fiscal year.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

By a series of coincidences that largely began due to mixed-up reporting on the OLED, we learned about the new Switch model way too early.

Ehh. We were hearing about 4K dev kits like half a year before anything to do with OLED screens.

Anuthing credible new (info, leak, rumor) last month or two?

The Linux T239 stuff is still within that time frame.

So can anyone explain why a cross gen TotK would be seen as a more compelling launch window title compared to an exclusive Mario Kart X? Because the latter looks highly unlikely to be due in the next 12 months at least.

Well... there you go. It's compelling because it's there. If there was ever talk of Zelda being an early cross-gen title but they changed their mind on a 2023 launch altogether, that's probably a decision made at least a year ago.

Who out here saying “$60 are too low now”??

I do! I think it's just weird that ginormous games at fidelity much much greater than ever seen before are expected to pay for themselves by selling at a cost equivalent to ~$35 in the PS1 days.

 

[Stinky Horse]

launching new, more expensive hardware that's backwards compatible (and games are forward compatible) wouldn't hurt their bottom line. it only raises it. people buying drake doesn't stop them from buying the game.

TotK isn't more compelling, we just know it exists and the franchise has a history of launching with new, extremely popular hardware. Twilight Princess on the wii and BotW on the switch shows that the method works, why not do it again if it's possible?

I think there are too many unknowns right now, will adding a new model increase their total shipping capacity if they launch next quarter? We don't know.
Will a new model be instantly more profitable than the oled model? We don't know.
Will they sell more copies of TotK if they launch it cross platform in May, rather than doing a GTAV and relaunching it the following year alongside major dlc? I doubt it.. but we don't know.

But at least 3 months from now the picture will be a lot clearer. Like what is their plan for March? There's usually something major but it's currently a black hole.
And how much hw will they ship this Q? It's presumably going to be way down from the usual 10.x million, or else they could end up only needing 1M next Q to hit their target, which might indeed be the plan of they do have new HW up their sleeves.

 

[Stinky Horse]

launching new, more expensive hardware that's backwards compatible (and games are forward compatible) wouldn't hurt their bottom line. it only raises it. people buying drake doesn't stop them from buying the game.

TotK isn't more compelling, we just know it exists and the franchise has a history of launching with new, extremely popular hardware. Twilight Princess on the wii and BotW on the switch shows that the method works, why not do it again if it's possible?

I think there are too many unknowns right now, will adding a new model increase their total shipping capacity if they launch next quarter? We don't know.
Will a new model be instantly more profitable than the oled model? We don't know.
Will they sell more copies of TotK if they launch it cross platform in May, rather than doing a GTAV and relaunching it the following year alongside major dlc? I doubt it.. but we don't know.

But at least 3 months from now the picture will be a lot clearer. Like what is their plan for March? There's usually something major but it's currently a black hole.
And how much hw will they ship this Q? It's presumably going to be way down from the usual 10.x million, or else they could end up only needing 1M next Q to hit their target, which might indeed be the plan if they do have new HW up their sleeves.

Well... there you go. It's compelling because it's there. If there was ever talk of Zelda being an early cross-gen title but they changed their mind on a 2023 launch altogether, that's probably a decision made at least a year ago.

Certainly, and I don't think we assume such a change would be visible to us just from the scraps we've seen and heard.

 

[Hosermess]

I do! I think it's just weird that ginormous games at fidelity much much greater than ever seen before are expected to pay for themselves by selling at a cost equivalent to ~$35 in the PS1 days.

Don't think the majority of consumers would pay $100 for a game because it has reflective puddles or whatever graphical enhancements are basically deemed compulsory by most hardcore enthusiasts/media.

 

[Aether]

this is a topic I think about a lot. I feel that people have too high an expectation of ray tracing. not that that it can't meet their expectations, as ray tracing does raise the ceiling. but people forget that the floor with RT is also very low. it's how we can have RT on mobile in the first place (or even an SNES!). the most common usages of RT won't be this transformative effect that makes games look like pixar movies, but replace effects that was formerly screen space and/or prebaked.

Xenoblade 3 with ray traced shadows, AO, and reflections won't be transformative, but the image will look damn better because it's not filled to the brim with low resolution shadows, halo'd characters, and broken water reflections. and that game is FULL of them


that's the best part, we don't know! mobile gpus are notorious for having practically no spec sheets. most of the time, we luck out in getting just the clocks.

Well, i know what RT is, how it can be used, etc. but in those rather crap looking scenes in my opinion (artistically, less so technically) it just...to be harsh... seems like polishing a turd with a lot od compute power.
Like "look, people, we can do it to, lets write it on marketing material".
There where some games where i feel RT would have done wonders, and some areas. especially where light is used as a gameplay mechanic.

But overall i feel like the processing power should be used more to improve other things, like table resolution and framerate, AA, LoF, pop in, etc. those are all aspects that i feel inpact my experience more, simple because faking lighting has come so far that, while obviously looking better, i feel its not worth the performance penalty.

(im now thinking of the demoes of RT with nvidia on pc)
thats why im more interested in reconstruction techniques, since they to me are what baked and faked light is to RT:
close enough for less processing power so that the surplus can be alocated to other things.
(like rendering 4k if you can upscale 1440p... yeah, 4k is somewhat better in almost still frames, but overall its not worth it)

 

[ILikeFeet]

Well, i know what RT is, how it can be used, etc. but in those rather crap looking scenes in my opinion (artistically, less so technically) it just...to be harsh... seems like polishing a turd with a lot od compute power.
Like "look, people, we can do it to, lets write it on marketing material".
There where some games where i feel RT would have done wonders, and some areas. especially where light is used as a gameplay mechanic.

But overall i feel like the processing power should be used more to improve other things, like table resolution and framerate, AA, LoF, pop in, etc. those are all aspects that i feel inpact my experience more, simple because faking lighting has come so far that, while obviously looking better, i feel its not worth the performance penalty.

(im now thinking of the demoes of RT with nvidia on pc)
thats why im more interested in reconstruction techniques, since they to me are what baked and faked light is to RT:
close enough for less processing power so that the surplus can be alocated to other things.
(like rendering 4k if you can upscale 1440p... yeah, 4k is somewhat better in almost still frames, but overall its not worth it)

it's called "programmer art" for a reason. it shows it can be done, but it's up to the artists to use the tools to make great looking games. and they will once the hardware proliferates. faked effects will diminish regardless of the audience's thoughts on the performance penalty since RT means easier development.

 

[Aether]

Oh, there will be a time where poerformance hit is miniscule (either because we have so much of it or because improvements in software), im not arguing AGAINST RT. (Also not against native 4k, there will be a time for it). But as it stands curently, i feel like the hardware can be used in better ways for the visuals and gameplay experience overall.

Heck, technically we had always the option of RT if we would have rendered it in software...but then we would have tanked every games performance by probably 90%.

In my opinion, RT with current gen (and switch) will be used sparingly for specific scenes, rooms,mechanics. And thats fine. it will not replace baked lighting.
Next generation in say 5 years? shure.

 

[Deleted member 887]

Don't think the majority of consumers would pay $100 for a game because it has reflective puddles or whatever graphical enhancements are basically deemed compulsory by most hardcore enthusiasts/media.

It's the snake eating its own tail. Games get more expensive, so you need to capture a larger chunk of the market to be profitable. Which means capturing "whales" who buy 20+ games a year, and the group who buy one or two games a year. Group two is heavily influenced by media perception and head to head rankings, group one defines that media perception, and both are price conscious for different reasons.

Which drives down the price, drives up the budget, pushes the need to capture large chunks of the market, which repeats the process.

 

[Gotdatmoneyy]

In the PS1 and PS2 days it was a lot cheaper to develop games but the market was also much smaller and games had shorter tails because there was limited retail space. Games have to go up in price at some point but consider that from PS2/XboxNGC--->PS3/360/Wii the amount of software that games could moved increased exponentially. We regularly had 15 to 20m sellers from then on which was basically unheard of in gen 6.

We also have had the acceleration of digital which improves publisher margins by 15% and the ability to improve game tails due to infinite access for players that didnt exist when everything was physical. DLC and microtransactions further improved margins.

It's not really accurate to say that because prices havent moved with inflation gaming moved to less profitability. Businesses face challenges and have to innovate. Gaming innovated. It's just corporate protectionism to act like they are getting fleeced by not raising prices.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Certainly, and I don't think we assume such a change would be visible to us just from the scraps we've seen and heard.

I feel like we'd have heard squeaks if some of the people who'd previously leaked "Yeah, we're working on stuff trying to be done by late 2022" were instead saying "Well shit, we don't have to be ready until 2024 now".

 

[Concernt]

I feel like we'd have heard squeaks if some of the people who'd previously leaked "Yeah, we're working on stuff trying to be done by late 2022" were instead saying "Well shit, we don't have to be ready until 2024 now".

I'm going to go out on a limb..
By which I mean, speculate, that late 2022 is when work is expected to be finished enough for approval by Nintendo and the ESRB ahead of launch. So I'm thinking early 2023 (and I mean EARLY, not H1) is getting more and more likely. Something about March 2023 calls to me, call it a hunch, but that two month gap between Nintendo published releases in March and April feels suspect.

 

[Weebos]

Hey OldPuck, it's me again.
Oh hey, Anonymous Lurker, how is it going?

I noticed the thread got pinned, and thought I'd take a peek.
There is a lot of information in the OP if you wanna catch up.

Oh, I can't do that. There is just... so much info. Also, I'm not super technical, so even if I did read all of it, it would go over my head. Could you just tell me what we know.
Um... I honestly probably can't do that.

So you don't actually know anything?!?
We know more about this console than maybe any other unreleased console, ever.

Why can't you tell me anything then?
Imagine that you had the diagrams for a brand new car engine. You take them to an engineer, and excitedly ask questions about the car - how fast will it go? "Well, it depends on what sort of chasis they use..." what's the MPG like? "well, depends on how aerodynamic the body is and if they rate it for higher or lower RPMs" Don't you even know what the stereo system will be like??? "uh, absolutely not..."

It's the same here. We know a lot about the chip that the Next Switch will use, but there are also a lot of blanks. And we have good guesses for those blanks! But you don't care about that, you care about the games right?

Yeah, basically.
And a lot of smart people have made a lot of smart discoveries about the thing, but if I start saying specifics, I guarantee less than 1/3 of the regulars will agree with my final conclusions. At least 1 thing will be controversial. And that's why there is still a thread going even when there isn't new info.

It's like trying to solve a crossword puzzle when some of the clues are missing or blurry. We've actually filled a lot of it in, but the rest are reasonable guesses, or guesses based on guesses, or guesses based on those. It gets real tenuous after a while.

Okay but can't you tell me anything?
I'll tell you what I'll do. I'm going to compile the current as of September 22, 2022 state of affairs below. I'm going to summarize the best guesses, and I'm going to organize it from stuff we're 90% confident in all the way to "Guesses upon guesses upon guesses".

But I'm going to hide it all, because there has been a trend of disreputable people making bad-faith content out of the speculation here, and that causes lots of problems. I'm also going to hide chunks behind spoiler tags.

I'm also going to update things here in the inevitable backlash as my fellow thread-dwellers correct me, but I'm not going to update this post as new data comes in. Got it?

Got it.

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *


Update: Clarification from @Look over there, @Alovon11, and @Brofield. Updated on the 20th with info from @Cybergatuno because not doing so seemed dumb, even if it came in after the 18th. Added some info I found in the Linux drops from Nvidia, and updated with @BlackTangMaster's power data

As somebody who never visits this thread but likes to occasionally check in on the rumors and goings on, thanks for this great post.

 

[LiC]

Ehh. We were hearing about 4K dev kits like half a year before anything to do with OLED screens.

What you're referring to was Mochizuki's extremely early reporting on Nintendo's plans for some kind of upgraded console, which he stated was planned for 2021, and speculatively mentioned that Nintendo had "looked into" adding more computing power and 4K graphics. There was no reporting on devkits anywhere near this timeframe. And it's plainly obvious from the reporting that followed that these plans would never have even been reported if not for the OLED, the model that was actually being tested and manufactured, providing the concrete info for those reports, serving as the basis that early "4K" info was conflated into.

 

[Aether]

Except in Japan, the Switch is loosing momentum, falling behind even Xbox in most markets in hardware sales. It's loosing momentum also in the news and collective mind-share. When accelerating a car, we shift the gear as soon as we start loosing momentum. A new Switch hardware would be the new shiny thing that everybody would talk about. Software sales are still healthy but maybe they won't be for long. Shifting the gear would keep those sales up for way longer.

Actually... we also take into account where the way leads, and act acordingly. changing gear up when we know that in 5 seconds we would need to reduce speed anyway is not a good way to act.

And that...could have been the reason they still havent anounced anything. Maybe it was planed late this year, when the momentum would have slowed down, but with how everything went (global economy, war, resources...) they decided that spring is a better time?

 

[mariodk18]

What you're referring to was Mochizuki's extremely early reporting on Nintendo's plans for some kind of upgraded console, which he stated was planned for 2021, and speculatively mentioned that Nintendo had "looked into" adding more computing power and 4K graphics. There was no reporting on devkits anywhere near this timeframe. And it's plainly obvious from the reporting that followed that these plans would never have even been reported if not for the OLED, the model that was actually being tested and manufactured, providing the concrete info for those reports, serving as the basis that early "4K" info was conflated into.

And dev kits went out to select partners in late 2020 report, right? As of the time of the posting of the article in your link (late Aug 2020, earlier for when Mochizuki would have heard the info), it still would have been a time when Nintendo was both finalizing potential Drake dev kits & specs and SWOLED hardware. I can easily see how and why one might take the two sources of info and conflate them to be one and the same.

But it was clear that dev kits for a 4K Switch were still out in the wild even after the announcement and release of the SWOLED, which prompted the "11 devs and spices" article in late September of 2021. I guess that article combined with stricter NDAs on top of the hack in March of this year really put a lid on further leaks.

 

[Dakhil]

So Dylan Patel from SemiAnalysis analysed a good chunk of Arm's response to Qualcomm's and Nuvia's counterclaims:

Arm’s Nuclear Option – Qualcomm Must Cancel Next-Generation Products If Arm Succeeds

Arm denies allegations of changing its business model

www.semianalysis.com

 

[ILikeFeet]

And dev kits went out to select partners in late 2020 report, right? As of the time of the posting of the article in your link (late Aug 2020, earlier for when Mochizuki would have heard the info), it still would have been a time when Nintendo was both finalizing potential Drake dev kits & specs and SWOLED hardware. I can easily see how and why one might take the two sources of info and conflate them to be one and the same.

But it was clear that dev kits for a 4K Switch were still out in the wild even after the announcement and release of the SWOLED, which prompted the "11 devs and spices" article in late September of 2021. I guess that article combined with stricter NDAs on top of the hack in March of this year really put a lid on further leaks.

I wonder if the denial about Nintendo not sending out dev kits was true at the time

because at the time there was just the SDK out

 

[Deleted member 887]

So Dylan Patel from SemiAnalysis analysed a good chunk of Arm's response to Qualcomm's and Nuvia's counterclaims:

Arm’s Nuclear Option – Qualcomm Must Cancel Next-Generation Products If Arm Succeeds

Arm denies allegations of changing its business model

www.semianalysis.com

Those claims have made Arm look like the bad guy in this situation.

The thing that makes ARM look like the bad guy is their contracts. If the ALA means what they say it means - and I am fairly certain it does - then it is incredibly restrictive. On the other hand, Qualcomm looks like they knew exactly what the contracts said, ignored them, and assumed they were too big a client for ARM to get pissy. I suspect Qualcomm has no evidence for the business model changes, but is betting that would be ARM's direction, and that if it goes to trial they'll out them during discovery.

Meanwhile, ARM is wrong that the ISA is intimately tied to the implementation. They need it to be, because they're six inches from someone doing what Intel did with Alpha and wrapping a RISC-V decode around a non-ARM developed ARM execution core and calling it a day. Patent litigation is awful, but I'd rather that than this contractual mess.

 

[Stinky Horse]

I wonder if the denial about Nintendo not sending out dev kits was true at the time

because at the time there was just the SDK out

Probably, not sure even Orin based ones would have been feasible until this year.

One thing I wondered about a long time ago is if their BC solution is something software based that requires a lot of per game attention for old titles, they could have some sort of compatibility platform to test against that would reduce future headaches for whenever they do launch.
In other words Nintendo has a Switch emulator, which not coincidentally runs on ampere and a78s, and they tell Devs any game published beyond date 202X must be tested against this other 'Switch' without modification. But it's just an idea.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Except in Japan, the Switch is loosing momentum, falling behind even Xbox in most markets in hardware sales.

Switch is definitely on the downslope, but this is going pretty far. Even if we subtract Japan the most recent four quarters are 16.56 million. That's probably not far off from the two year Series total.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Probably, not sure even Orin based ones would have been feasible until this year.

One thing I wondered about a long time ago is if their BC solution is something software based that requires a lot of per game attention for old titles, they could have some sort of compatibility platform to test against that would reduce future headaches for whenever they do launch.
In other words Nintendo has a Switch emulator, which not coincidentally runs on ampere and a78s, and they tell Devs any game published beyond date 202X must be tested against this other 'Switch' without modification. But it's just an idea.

That would be the hard way of doing things. A translation layer would be theoretically easier and would have less errors

 

[Stinky Horse]

That would be the hard way of doing things. A translation layer would be theoretically easier and would have less errors

I'm sure that's true for the CPU but I have no idea about the GPU side. Regardless, it would be the same concept of a BC test platform that may explain the strange case random dev houses getting a look at this thing so early.