launching new, more expensive hardware that's backwards compatible (and games are forward compatible) wouldn't hurt their bottom line. it only raises it. people buying drake doesn't stop them from buying the game.
TotK isn't more compelling, we just know it exists and the franchise has a history of launching with new, extremely popular hardware. Twilight Princess on the wii and BotW on the switch shows that the method works, why not do it again if it's possible?
Edit: warning long post ahead
Just noticed, I’ll get to why I really quoted this post later but anyway. In the Nintendo launches that have included a 3D Mario, the games released within the year or so of the new console release. On occasions it released the same day. But Nintendo seems to aim to have it within the same year as the release.
Nintendo 64- 06/1996
Mario 64- 06/1996
GameCube- 09/2001
Mario Sunshine- 07/2002
Nintendo Wii- 11/2006
Mario Galaxy- 11/2007
Super Mario Galaxy 2 released 2010, no hardware
Nintendo Wii U- 11/2012
Mario 3D World- 11/2013
Nintendo Switch- 03/2017
Mario Odyssey- 10/2017
Nintendo DS- 11/2004
Mario 64 DS- 11/2004
Nintendo 3DS- 02/2011
Mario 3D Land- 11/2011
Meanwhile the real reason I quoted this, I feel like Zelda could apply if it was a consistent theme like 3D Mario. But the times they’ve done that is less consistent.
Ocarina of Time was November 1998, when the n64 was June 1996.
Majora’s Mask released with no hardware.
Wind Waker was December 2002 when the GCN was September 2001.
Twilight Princess was a launch title with the Nintendo Wii, November 2006.
Skyward Sword launched in November 2011.
Breath of the Wild launched in March 2017 with the switch.
Ocarina of Time 3D launched June 2011, a few months after the 3DS hit the market.
Quite frankly, nothing is really hinting that these two are tied to being one plus one product launch if we were to use precedents. In fact, it would suggest the contrary.
If anything, I think people should be focusing more on the suspicious absence of a 3D Mario after so long. Nintendo has historically tried to have a new 3D Mario within the first year or so of the products life on the market,
more often than not. In fact, I don’t think the next 3D Mario will even hit the Nintendo switch if anyone believed that it would, and it’s actually going to be exclusive to the next system, to the chagrin of what people did not want to hear about this.
But Zelda? I don’t think nothing is pointing to it being a likely scenario. Possible? Yes, definitely what’s happening? Not really in my opinion.
Even to play the devils’ advocate here and go against my flow, if it launches in May, a new 3D Mario
will follow within the year of the console’s life on the market. Whether it is A) In November to boost the holiday sales as best it can even if supply limited or B) in February or March of the following year before the Fiscal year ends and be a massive seller.
Ok back to analyzing Nintendo software product launches whatever… I’ll take the opportunity to use Mario Kart.
First Mario Kart for the SNES came out in August 1992. Not within a year of the SNES launch! SNES was 1990.
Mario Kart 64 was December 1996 for the N64. Within a year
Mario Kart Super Circuit was June 2001. Within a year of the GBA launch
Mario Kart Double Dash was November 2003 for the GCN. Not within a year!
Mario Kart DS was November 2005. About a year of the DS launch.
Mario Kart Wii was April 2008. Not within a year of the Wii launch!
Mario Kart 7 was December 2011. Within a year of the 3DS launch
Mario Kart 8 was May 2014. Not within a year of the Wii U launch!
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe was April 2017. Within a year of the Switch launch.
….I have a feeling that, with the next system, the Mario Kart will not be within a year of the system’s launch… clearly it’ll be for two years after the launch!
Please whoever is reading this, do not take that “it‘s not launching within a year next time” seriously, it’s just a funny pattern I noticed.
Anyway, this is the final part that I wanted to basically emphasize. It is
not a good idea for Nintendo to overload the launch year with titles that are crucial for the longevity of the platform, but it’s also not good for them to space them out too far apart, that it makes it difficult for them to have a smooth cadence of Software rolling in.
Some people have the belief that they’re going to have a banging first year whenever the system launches, but they literally have to space it out for the year after and the year after that, and Nintendo is not afraid to withhold software if they need to because they aim for the long term game not the short term wins.
Nintendo has to carefully balance how much and what specific software to launch the new system with. It can be with a new Mario, a new Mario kart, a new Zelda, or a new donkey Kong, etc. What needs to be kept in mind is that it is not as simple as just repeating the Nintendo switch launch, and it is not as simple as repeating any of the previous launches with tweaks. Every launch lineup will be different and there’s no ifs, ands or buts about it.
It is a very delicate thing that they have to balance. Anyone that is assuming that they’re just gonna do exactly what they do with a Nintendo switch but in 2023 or 2024 or 2025 or whenever they believe that the system will actually launch has to accept the idea that they are looking at it from the lens of something like a causal fallacy or post hoc fallacy.
Then again my post is riddled with its own share of fallacies anyway
.
But it’s good for thought.