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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

I'm always surprised how active this topic is despite having any news about the Switch successor, can someone give me the last news or rumors (with a simple vocabulary please because I'm really not into all of the technical things, lmao). Guess we're having the Switch 2/Pro the same day as ToTK.

Nothings changed really. There’s no new rumors. Some have taken TotK release date as an indicator of the hardware launch date, but it’s entirely speculation.
 
Nothings changed really. There’s no new rumors. Some have taken TotK release date as an indicator of the hardware launch date, but it’s entirely speculation.
Ok, thanks, guess they are right (I never ever believed in a spring or fall 2022 release as they were saying though, lol).
 
Re: our periodic marketing/name discussion

I increasingly like “Switch 2.” In the world of iPhones and backwards compat, it doesn’t put a flag in either the successor or revision camp, and says, simply “this is the new switch.” Nintendo will need to explain their degree of support for the Switch 1 regardless.

Nintendo’s TV consoles have always had a different name, so it’s not quite the same as PS2 - naming it a “2” would stand out as a continuation of the line simply because keeping the base name is novel.
 
I think "Super Nintendo Switch" is also a fun name.
It is the best name imho. Basically says it is a Switch but better in the clearest way possible.

For those that like Switch 4K, I think a better alternative would be Switch Ultra (as in Ultra HD for 4K).
 
Since the SoC is codenamed Drake, why not name the new Switch: Nintendo Switch OvO


Crickets.....


Other than better performance/visuals,what else can Nintendo do to sell this? Better VR experience? Wireless docking? Better cloud? Ability to stream on PC or smartphone? Perhaps better Bluetooth and native VC? The Switch already has really good gameplay features such as Gyro and HD rumble.
 
The lite and oled were both revealed during July so if the next console is treated as a successor perhaps it'll be revealed in October, same month the switch was revealed
 
Re: our periodic marketing/name discussion

I increasingly like “Switch 2.” In the world of iPhones and backwards compat, it doesn’t put a flag in either the successor or revision camp, and says, simply “this is the new switch.” Nintendo will need to explain their degree of support for the Switch 1 regardless.

Nintendo’s TV consoles have always had a different name, so it’s not quite the same as PS2 - naming it a “2” would stand out as a continuation of the line simply because keeping the base name is novel.
I think “Nintendo Switch Series 2” makes a lot of sense. It keeps the brand “Nintendo Switch.” The super cool logo and sound and everything would stay the same. It’s just the second generation model within that family. This is a little different from, like, PS2 and PS3, which each changed the branding and visual identity quite dramatically (so much so in the case of PS3 that they decided to revert it to something closer than the PS2’s branding).

You can keep the logo and sound and everything if you call it “Super Nintendo Switch” or “Nintendo Switch 2,” true, but it gets kind of weird. Like, do you make “Super” part of the same lockup as the “Nintendo Switch” logotype? Because then you have three words stacked on top of each other, underneath a logo, and that might look kind of…tall. And if “Super” is the same width as “Switch,” is it going to be a larger typeface, with Nintendo in smaller letters sandwiched between them? That would be weird. It just feels like adding things to that lockup gets kind of messy.

Whereas, with “Series 2,” that can optionally appear underneath the lockup where it’s necessary (on the console box, on a little “Series 2 Required” or “Series 2 Enhanced” banner below the Switch logo on game boxes) and not appear at all when it’s not necessary (console boot ups and other times when simply the Switch brand is being indicated).

“Series #” works really well for the Apple Watch. The brand can just stay Apple Watch; which “Series” you have is an implementation detail. They don’t have to mess with the logo lockup, because having the Apple logo and then the word “WATCH” and then a number right after that would look like a bit much. It’s easy to see why, say, Xbox seems like they’re moving toward this. The brand gets to be just Xbox, not Xbox One or Xbox 360 or Xbox [Word].

It would be far from the first time Nintendo has been inspired by Apple in terms of branding, visual identity, or hardware design.

We all like names like “Super Nintendo Switch” because of Nintendo’s history with the word “Super” and because it’s just a fun word. But it sort of has the same problem that “New Nintendo Switch” does, which is…okay, what do you call the model after it? Super Duper Nintendo Switch? If you’re thinking in terms of, like, what’s going to make sense for Switch family as a whole for the next decade plus, it’s probably not a name like New Nintendo Switch or Super Nintendo Switch. Plus, would the eventual cheaper handheld-only revision be called Super Nintendo Switch Lite? You kind of get into the “New Nintendo 3DS XL” problem, where you start bolting prefixes and suffixes onto the brand with reckless abandon and it ends up being kind of ridiculous.
 
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The lite and oled were both revealed during July so if the next console is treated as a successor perhaps it'll be revealed in October, same month the switch was revealed
I think there's a very small chance they will announce a new Switch before Christmas. It'll kneepcap their holiday sales.
 
Well they will care everyone upgrade to new hardware at one point,
there will be big power and technical difference between current Switch versions and Drake versions, so for them would be easier to make games just for one hardware and also worry only about one production line of one device instead of two with quite different parts (SoC, RAM, internal memory and who knows what else).

I am under the belief…like ToTK, Metroid Prime 4, Pikmin 4…Nintendo has determined a comfortable development strategy to utilize the power of Drake (for those who want better IQ and performance from the Switch library) while having the typical profile for the TX1+ models

I really don’t believe Nintendo devs are looking to make games for Switch now that are any “bigger in scope” than ToTK or Metroid Prime 4.

I really do believe Drake for them is a stepping stone into DLSS development where they no longer have to worry about needing powerful hardware to push resolution. They can just always target 540p or 720p or 1080p and let the AI make the resolution to match the screen and act as their de facto AA solution.

And all that allows them to push graphic sliders a bit more and target a steady 60fps for everything.

That’s the purpose of Drake. Now, maybe 4 years from now or so, they can start pushing their big games in new direction with the NEXT DLSS SoC upgrade they push out, but they are going to use it mostly to figure out streamlining and utilizing its potentials.

Think of this as a Wii HD revision that Nintendo laments they didn’t do, lamenting they waited too late to start HD development.

Now, I can see Nintendo making some games that may use the tensor cores for some unique AI driven gameplay or something like that that will be unable to run on the older models. But making exclusive big games for Drake simply to have bigger scope games? I don’t see it.

I disagree that Nintendo would be happy if they still selling Switch OLED in 2026, they would want to have in 2026. all Switch Drake versions of hardware on market and not any more in sales current ones.

I don’t see the Drake model being the Nintendo baseline for game development until the upgrade AFTER the Drake SoC is nearing release.

Im willing to bet in 2026 the majority of Switch gaming is still on the Switch/Lite/OLED models. Which means Nintendo will still target those models.

(Unless the Drake model is far cheaper than I expect, I suppose)



I disagree comparison is pointless, 2 years after PS5 launch Sony keep releasing PS4 games also (actually currently I can remember only one Sony PS5 exclusive),
that never happened before, and main reason for that is because PS5 is using again AMD hardware so this time its not completely different type of hardware/tech and development/environment, and because of that making cross gen games is easier than before.

Nintendo with Drake will be in similar situation, Drake would basically be full next gen hardware compared to current Switch units and Nintendo will keep supporting for some time both Switch hardware (current gen and next gen).


Microsoft and Sony completely stopped manufacturing all ps4 models and Xbox One models when the ps5/Series SX launched.

That’s serious commitment and desire of wanting the userbase to move as quickly as possible.

Nintendo will not stop manufacturing and shipping and selling the older models next year.

(Yes, I know, Sony changed their mind and decided to make another million ps4’s in 2021, but that wasn’t the plan. They were caught off guard with no product on store shelves. But they wanted to stop supporting ps4 as soon as possible)

Nintendo doesn’t fee the lifecycle of these 115 million units on the market are anywhere near over.
 
I think “Nintendo Switch Series 2” makes a lot of sense. It keeps the brand “Nintendo Switch.” The super cool logo and sound and everything would stay the same. It’s just the second generation model within that family. This is a little different from, like, PS2 and PS3, which each changed the branding and visual identity quite dramatically (so much so in the case of PS3 that they decided to revert it to something closer than the PS2’s branding).

You can keep the logo and sound and everything if you call it “Super Nintendo Switch” or “Nintendo Switch 2,” true, but it gets kind of weird. Like, do you make “Super” part of the same lockup as the “Nintendo Switch” logotype? Because then you have three words stacked on top of each other, underneath a logo, and that might look kind of…tall. And if “Super” is the same width as “Switch,” is it going to be a larger typeface, with Nintendo in smaller letters sandwiched between them? That would be weird. It just feels like adding things to that lockup gets kind of messy.

Whereas, with “Series 2,” that can optionally appear underneath the lockup where it’s necessary (on the console box, on a little “Series 2 Required” or “Series 2 Enhanced” banner below the Switch logo on game boxes) and not appear at all when it’s not necessary (console boot ups and other times when simply the Switch brand is being indicated).

“Series #” works really well for the Apple Watch. The brand can just stay Apple Watch; which “Series” you have is an implementation detail. They don’t have to mess with the logo lockup, because having the Apple logo and then the word “WATCH” and then a number right after that would look like a bit much. It’s easy to see why, say, Xbox seems like they’re moving toward this. The brand gets to be just Xbox, not Xbox One or Xbox 360 or Xbox [Word].

It would be far from the first time Nintendo has been inspired by Apple in terms of branding, visual identity, or hardware design.

We all like names like “Super Nintendo Switch” because of Nintendo’s history with the word “Super” and because it’s just a fun word. But it sort of has the same problem that “New Nintendo Switch” does, which is…okay, what do you call the model after it? Super Duper Nintendo Switch? If you’re thinking in terms of, like, what’s going to make sense for Switch family as a whole for the next decade plus, it’s probably not a name like New Nintendo Switch or Super Nintendo Switch. Plus, would the eventual cheaper handheld-only revision be called Super Nintendo Switch Lite? You kind of get into the “New Nintendo 3DS XL” problem, where you start bolting prefixes and suffixes onto the brand with reckless abandon and it ends up being kind of ridiculous.
I don't think they'd do "Series _" for the simple reason that Xbox is doing it.

I do think they could call it Nintendo Switch 2 and achieve the same result your looking for. Not a complete rebrand but the same "Nintendo Switch" logo with a 2 cleanly added. /shrug

Thinking about this I decided to mock it up and... well I was less discrete lol.

Nintendo_Switch_Logo.jpg
 
I don't think they'd do "Series _" for the simple reason that Xbox is doing it.

I do think they could call it Nintendo Switch 2 and achieve the same result your looking for. Not a complete rebrand but the same "Nintendo Switch" logo with a 2 cleanly added. /shrug

Thinking about this I decided to mock it up and... well I was less discrete lol.

Nintendo_Switch_Logo.jpg
...why did the stick move?
 
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The "even if not right away" was why I thought they'd market it initially as a revision. This whole revision vs successor discussion (which I feel I might have accidentally rekindled and I apologize for that) is kinda moot if we all agree that eventually it will replace Switch as the default, and possibly only, console they are making games for. The rest really is marketing. There are valid reasons to argue either path will be what they choose to begin with, but I definitely think that the plan is for this device to be their primary focus after a certain amount of time, and remain that way for several years at least
I hear this a fair bit and it makes it sound rather simple, but it’s really not. You’re basically saying Nintendo will tell people it’s not a successor and then do this a few years later:
AbhK5iyLfOs5PUOrREpjsoPFn04=.gif

But what about those intervening years while the deception is still in play? In the time they’re not pitching it as the successor, it will sell as a revision normally does which, based on New 3DS, PS4 Pro and Xbox One S, will be 10% of overall Switch sales. If we assume they sell 40 million Switch units in the next 2 years, when it’s time to “sunset” the Switch, it’d only have an install base of between 17-20 million at best (which Switch achieved in its first year at market). So you’ve generated a situation where the new hardware’s install base has been unnecessarily handicapped with the “revision” designation, instead of just doing the far simpler thing of calling it a successor with a cross-gen software period and achieving similar Switch software sellthrough, while also giving better chances for software exclusive to the new hardware (mostly from 3rd-parties) to sell at its best from day one.
It’s helping the Switch by inhibiting sales on its (eventual) successor, short-term maintenance of a status quo by spiting long-term prospects, which doesn’t sound like a positive business plan, and betting that calling it a revision will be able to achieve this best-case scenario is a big bet on its own. It’s threading a needle with a microscopic eyelet for short-term reasons.
I really do think a premature "Nintendo Switch 2" could pop the bubble and kill the whole thing
And an overdue “Switch 2” could not gain traction from being too late to keep current momentum. And since hardware makers seemingly plan production at least a year in advance (Switch had its launch month confirmed a year ahead of launch), they don’t have the luxury of walking that tightrope.
@Dakhil and others can speak more to this than I can, more than likely, but the average time from beginning fabrication of an SoC to selling to a client like NVidia/Nintendo is around 18 to 26 weeks, up to half a year. And that’s not including the time it might take to make improvements to production yields for certain process nodes, or the fact that the current state of the semiconductor business requires some pretty intense wait times due to pre-booking.

So with that information in mind, because they can’t turn production on and off on a dime, it is always more beneficial to be “premature” than to be overdue, because you have a much better chance to parlay existing momentum into a new product than trying to re-kindle that momentum after it’s been snuffed out.
Microsoft and Sony completely stopped manufacturing all ps4 models and Xbox One models when the ps5/Series SX launched.
Sony never stopped manufacturing PS4 Slims, they only discontinued all other models and then ramped up production orders for the remaining Slim model to better meet demand. Only MS killed its prior console.
 
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I don't see new hardware after Drake until 2030+, even if they start development of post-Drake hardware in the late 2020s.

This hardware seems purpose built to last a while. Game Boy lasted almost 20 years, could Switch go past that? Honestly I think it has the potential to.
2030 would be 7 years, that’s long for a console generation but it is ancient by mobile hardware standards. By the time Drake launches it will be one gen behind in terms of GPU architecture already and running at likely very low clocks.

Even if Drake’s basic design holds for 7 years, I would highly expect a die shrink. Especially if they go with 7nm instead of 5nm.

I would 100% expect an, at minimum, battery life variant a few years in. 720p OLED screens are going to get more expensive not less - one can easily imagine a 1080p screen upgrade as a cost cutting maneuver. I can easily imagine an OLED style variation

I want them to keep pursuing the concept. I want a Series S++ machine approaching PS5 level with even more fine-tuned DLSS, a 1080p-1440p screen, hall-effect joycons, and killer battery in 2031. Not sure how possible this is based on Nvidia's roadmap but I can see myself just buying Switch upgrades forever.
 
2030 would be 7 years, that’s long for a console generation but it is ancient by mobile hardware standards. By the time Drake launches it will be one gen behind in terms of GPU architecture already and running at likely very low clocks.

Even if Drake’s basic design holds for 7 years, I would highly expect a die shrink. Especially if they go with 7nm instead of 5nm.

I would 100% expect an, at minimum, battery life variant a few years in. 720p OLED screens are going to get more expensive not less - one can easily imagine a 1080p screen upgrade as a cost cutting maneuver. I can easily imagine an OLED style variation
When I say "no new hardware after Drake until 2030+" I mean 'new hardware' as in new architecture / next version of the Switch, similar to the current Switch lifespan. Erista in 2017, Mariko + Mariko Lite in 2019 and OLED Mariko in 2021. In this case the original 'Switch' i.e. Erisa + Mariko has lasted from 2017-202x, and I expect 'Switch Ultra / Switch 2' (so Drake + its die shrinks) to last from 2023-203x. In this case I have used Drake as shorthand for Switch 2, which is poor wording on my behalf as Drake is the codename for this iteration of it. I 100% expect a die shrink, Lite, etc. of Switch 2 but no Switch 3 for a while.

I'm also on the fence if Drake's clocks will be low or not, I'm assuming that's dependent on process node.

If it makes people happier I'll soften my claim to late 202x, I just feel that long cross-gen + diminishing returns + upscaling means they can ride this one out for longer than the current Switch.
 
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Ok, thanks, guess they are right (I never ever believed in a spring or fall 2022 release as they were saying though, lol).
Just to clarify literally nobody was saying spring 2022. The rumor since early 2021 has always been* holiday 2022 to early 2023.

*Outside of a brief Bloomberg fueled hysteria in summer 2021.
 
When I say "no new hardware after Drake until 2030+" I mean 'new hardware' as in new architecture / next version of the Switch, similar to the current Switch lifespan. Erista in 2017, Mariko + Mariko Lite in 2019 and OLED Mariko in 2021. In this case the original 'Switch' i.e. Erisa + Mariko has lasted from 2017-202x, and I expect 'Switch Ultra / Switch 2' (so Drake + its die shrinks) to last from 2023-203x. In this case I have used Drake as shorthand for Switch 2, which is poor wording on my behalf as Drake is the codename for this iteration of it. I 100% expect a die shrink, Lite, etc. of Switch 2 but no Switch 3 for a while.

I'm also on the fence if Drake's clocks will be low or not, I'm assuming that's dependent on process node.
I still think that’s a long time. 2023 to 2030 is seven years. Nintendo’s gone that long between generations only twice, both with hardware that was first released in the eighties. Even the massively successful DS got a successor after six and a quarter years.

I actually think they’re a bit more likely to move in the opposite direction, and instead of having half-step “not a new generation” machines like the DSi and New 3DS, just move to having more iterative generations with smoother transitions instead.
 
Anyway so I hope it’s this:


Switch OLED body, or similar. Has an OLED screen of course. So, same dimensions as the OLED.

720p-1080p display, 60Hz or 90/120Hz OLED with VRR if the 90/120Hz panel. Can use HDR this time. This I don’t expect though. But I do see TV HDR being a thing.

Improved Joycons. Nothing more needs to be said.

A dock that is either like the OLED one, or it is one that is improved a bit over the current OLED dock. Just differentiated I guess.


Battery improved to 5000-5300mAh from the current one that is 4310mAh in the switch models. Except the lite, that one is lower. Hey, it’s been nearly 6 years since the original battery. It improves 5% each year. A 5000-5300mAh battery can be a small ask.


128GB storage, maybe eUFS of the older ones? or maybe not? But, hopefully 128GB as the minimum.


12GB of Random Access Memory, LPDDR5. Later revisions get 5X and a new lite.

5/7nm

8 A78C cores. 1.7-2.1GHz range for 7 cores. 8th core is clocked to 1GHz if possible. It’s the OS core. This would draw little. Full cache configuration too. So yes, 8MB L3, 4MB L2, whatever it was for L1.


ok so, the GPU. 1536 shaders right. Portable mode: 537.6MHz, 460MHz and 384MHz different profiles.

Listen it’s on a newer node.

Docked: well, clearly double the portable clock frequency. But if we want to be a little fancy, 1228MHz. This is in TV mode, battery doesn’t matter so much here. On a newer node, it will be pretty manageable since it has actual cooling. Unlike phones…. cough Exynos 2200 cough




I know some want ~1.305GHz for reasons… you do you. Don’t see why not though, but sure let’s entertain that.


Anyway….


And finally, a 4-6MB SLC that both the GPU and CPU can use.


Oh, and at least 3.5H battery life at the minimum.




I’m not expecting all of this, but it would be cool to have. It can last me until the next decade.

I think.

$399.99-$449.99

Edit: actually this is more like my ceiling in terms of expectations. Like the highest they can do.
 
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I still think that’s a long time. 2023 to 2030 is seven years. Nintendo’s gone that long between generations only twice, both with hardware that was first released in the eighties. Even the massively successful DS got a successor after six and a quarter years.

I actually think they’re a bit more likely to move in the opposite direction, and instead of having half-step “not a new generation” machines like the DSi and New 3DS, just move to having more iterative generations with smoother transitions instead.

I'm probably overestimating DLSS.
 
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When confronted with the knowledge you've misgendered a member, please acknowledge, and seek to correct that. Additionally, your behavior in this thread has been overly combative. You are being issued a one week thread ban. -Josh5890, Aurc, Hologram
I note that you very specifically edited out the words “I think…” that started the statement of mine you quoted. I wasn’t making a statement of fact, I was presenting it as my own conjecture.

Every post in this thread that doesnt link or quote a source…it’s all opinion.

I don’t get when people have to state “that’s your opinion…” no duh. Most of this thread is that. Doesn’t need to be said every second.


Excuse me?

First, not a boy.

Second, your entire post is just you making spurious assertions as to what Nintendo is doing or thinking without really providing any evidence to support that. There really isn’t any “mature” way to respond to that other than to say that you aren’t bothering to substantiate any of your claims, which I did.

You didn’t substantiate any of your claims with sources or links or quotes.

Your entire post is your opinion, as is mine. I understand this and accept this, you don’t.

Dunno what to tell you lol

shrugs

I have more evidence Nintendo makes hardware decisions to benefit Nintendo published games than 3rd party published games though. So I’m confident in my opinion.

You show me ANY evidence of Nintendo EVER making hardware decisions to help multiplat porting. I’d love to see it.
 
Switch Mark ii
Switch Ultra
Switch Pro
Switch 2
Switch Advance
Super Switch
Switch 2023 Edition
Switch Recharge
Switch Enhance
 
I think there's a very small chance they will announce a new Switch before Christmas. It'll kneepcap their holiday sales.
It wouldn't. It didn't before. It won't.
3DS didn't kneecap DS, nor New 3DS or Switch 3DS, or GBA GBC, etc.

Unlike those transitions, the new Switch targets a different market to the first device, since the Super Switch appeals to people who either already own a Switch or want a handheld more powerful than the existing Switch. People who wouldn't count among the holiday sales anyway.
 
Zelda TOTK is going to be an event, like Elden Ring, RDR 2, Animal Crossing, Smash, Modern Warfare, etc. If Nintendo have properly invested in their now Billion-dollar franchise, this system is going to be very hard to find if they launch near each other. Wait til people realize they can buy a Switch 2 and Zelda TOTK near launch, beat the game, and then re-sell everything a few months later for more money than they paid for it lol
 
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It wouldn't. It didn't before. It won't.
3DS didn't kneecap DS, nor New 3DS or Switch 3DS, or GBA GBC, etc.

Unlike those transitions, the new Switch targets a different market to the first device, since the Super Switch appeals to people who either already own a Switch or want a handheld more powerful than the existing Switch. People who wouldn't count among the holiday sales anyway.

We are in the middle of September. That means there are roughly 10 weeks where a new console could drop in order to sell for this holiday. Even less if they tried to get it out before Black Friday sales. And every week that passes narrows the amount of time they could get something out for the holiday 2022 window. That’s not even factoring time it would take to ship and market this thing.

I seriously doubt it’s going to happen. I feel like there would be massive leaks on this thing by now. Compare what we knew about OG switch leading up to its reveal (let alone launch) to what we know about Drake now. If it was coming out soon (like within the next 10 weeks) there would be way more leaks.

Honestly if they are targeting March I don’t think it makes much sense announcing it this year. They could announce it January and it wouldn’t make a difference. They have released new hardware in 70-90 days in the Switch era. January gives them that same window.
 
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You show me ANY evidence of Nintendo EVER making hardware decisions to help multiplat porting. I’d love to see it.
The Nintendo 3DS Circle Pad Pro seemed to exist almost entirely to make Capcom happy and get them on board with Monster Hunter on Nintendo 3DS. I don’t think any Nintendo games even supported it until after the New 3DS came out and a select few games supported it as a control option for people who didn’t have the new hardware.

I’m not going to discuss anything with you any further. In this thread you’ve been repeatedly rude and condescending to basically everyone, and when called out you respond with saying that people just can’t handle your opinions (along with an army of strawmen). I’m not the only one who has asked you to stop talking down to people, so I don’t know why you’re acting like it’s a me issue.

You consistently make this thread worse and less fun, and you don’t seem interested in changing your behavior when people ask you to, so I’m putting you on ignore.
 
It wouldn't. It didn't before. It won't.
3DS didn't kneecap DS, nor New 3DS or Switch 3DS, or GBA GBC, etc.

Unlike those transitions, the new Switch targets a different market to the first device, since the Super Switch appeals to people who either already own a Switch or want a handheld more powerful than the existing Switch. People who wouldn't count among the holiday sales anyway.
You’re making a lot of assumptions about what this new Switch’s function would be, things we simply cannot know. The current Switch is still thriving, there’s no incentive to announce the successor pre-Black Friday when it’s definitely not coming this year.
 
You show me ANY evidence of Nintendo EVER making hardware decisions to help multiplat porting. I’d love to see it.

About main memory space [RAM], Capcom had told Nintendo that the initially planned space wasn't enough. If you are comparing to what's inside other current-gen systems, it definitely wouldn't be enough. In the end, Capcom's request was accepted and the memory capacity became as per to their expectation.
 
I have more evidence Nintendo makes hardware decisions to benefit Nintendo published games than 3rd party published games though. So I’m confident in my opinion.
First, it's not a zero-sum game that you make it out to be, where benefiting Nintendo-published games necessarily comes at the detriment to 3rd-party published games.

Any evidence you claim to have must be new, since this is ground you've tread before on the forum. Either that, or you've opted to selectively ignore the words from Nintendo's own presidents on the subject, even after you've been previously informed about said statements as far back as October 2021. And that certainly doesn't excuse the condescending tone you've opted to take.
 
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You’re making a lot of assumptions about what this new Switch’s function would be, things we simply cannot know. The current Switch is still thriving, there’s no incentive to announce the successor pre-Black Friday when it’s definitely not coming this year.

Those older consoles weren’t “kneecapped” because they were already on a decline in terms of hardware sales. They were by all means slowing down. Nintendo announced the 3DS almost a year in advance and they also slashed DS prices in the fall.

The New 3DS is interesting because it was basically a “Pro” version of the 3DS. And even then, it was still launched in time for the holidays in Japan after it was announced. So Nintendo made sure that their home market got a new product in time for the holidays.

Neither of those kind of situations are playing out right now with the Switch. It’s still tremendously successful and is poised to have another monster holiday.
 
I seriously doubt it’s going to happen. I feel like there would be massive leaks on this thing by now. Compare what we knew about OG switch leading up to its reveal (let alone launch) to what we know about Drake now. If it was coming out soon (like within the next 10 weeks) there would be way more leaks.

Honestly if they are targeting March I don’t think it makes much sense announcing it this year. They could announce it January and it wouldn’t make a difference. They have released new hardware in 70-90 days in the Switch era. January gives them that same window.
I’m inclined to agree with both of these paragraphs. It just doesn’t seem like it’s in the cards for this year, either in terms of release or announcement. I know it seems funny, given how much we do “know” about this hardware and how much we’ve heard about it, but there’s just not enough smoke on this fire yet for me to think that it’s truly imminent.

End of March seems like a very reasonable time to expect it. It lines up with precedent and the absence of a Nintendo game announced for their traditional end-of-March release slot is suspicious. And, working backwards from that, January seems like a reasonable time to announce it and its launch software, just like the January presentation where the Switch launch date, launch line-up, pricing, accessories, and SKUs were announced. I don’t think we need a reveal video this year that explains the console’s concept (like we saw for the Switch in 2016) because it seems like that concept is still a hybrid console with detachable joy-cons and handheld, tabletop, and TV modes.
 
Re: our periodic marketing/name discussion

I increasingly like “Switch 2.” In the world of iPhones and backwards compat, it doesn’t put a flag in either the successor or revision camp, and says, simply “this is the new switch.” Nintendo will need to explain their degree of support for the Switch 1 regardless.

Nintendo’s TV consoles have always had a different name, so it’s not quite the same as PS2 - naming it a “2” would stand out as a continuation of the line simply because keeping the base name is novel.
I agree with everything you said, except that Switch 2 eludes more to a direct successor than a revision. More so when you factor in how long it's been since switch came out and the new architecture and massive power difference.
 
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I dunno about first and foremost, but of the top of my head?

Nintendo Switch. It was designed in a LOT of ways to facilitate 3rd-party development, learning from past failures in this regard. And it's impossible to look at the system and not say, in some pretty significant ways, that it was successful at doing just that.

Wii U was allegedly designed with 3rd-parties in mind, even though it was a super-bad attempt at it that sold poorly to consumers, but that was one of Nintendo's stated design principles for it and the first year of software wasn't terrible for games released on it, all things considered; still has more Call of Duty games on it than Switch does. They went as far as to include a free copy of Unity Pro middleware with every dev kit. A obviously bad attempt is still an attempt, though.

The Wii U was primarily designed to play Wii games. They made sure this was possible and limited everything towards this goal.

Yes, the Wii U had more modern architecture than the Wii, but that’s a low bar to say therefore Wii U was meant to port ps360 games easier.

Much of the Wii U design was to facilitate the gamepad function and to make Wii games BC.

If EA and Activision saw the architecture and said “finally, we can port an HD version of our game to Nintendo and have it be played with a standard controller!”…that was a happy side effect. In no way did Nintendo design Wii U so that it could play COD and Assassins Creed better than the Wii and 3ds

And as we saw, despite the Wii U being really easy to port ps360 games to…publishers eventually decided it wasn’t worth it anyways.

The Switch being modern, x86 Nvidia pc type architecture has NOTHING TO DO with Nintendo hoping and praying Skyrim and Witcher 3 would be on it, but everything about getting a powerful hybrid for Nintendo gaming and setting a BC foward thinking standard for Nintendo software to move on to new hardware rather than be remade/re-ported every gen.

The only time Nintendo has ever made hardware decisions at the behest of 3rd party publishers are when its publishers who make exclusives for Nintendo systems. That’s it.

I’m happy to be shown proof or evidence otherwise though :)
 
I know I’ve been eyeing Resident Evil 4’s March 24 release date with suspicion, but another big third party game that seems poised to come out in the first half of 2023, with a PS4/Xbox One version, from a developer that seems to have a good relationship with Nintendo, and in a series that has a history on Switch, is…Diablo IV. Being able to get that day-and-date with the other versions would be a nice feather in the Switch’s cap, no?

Activision Blizzard is one of a vanishingly small number of third parties that supported the first Switch with a launch title (Skylanders). They’re also one of a very small number of third parties to make their own Amiibo. And there was even special edition Switch hardware for Diablo III. That’s rare for any third party game, but especially a third party game from a non-Japanese developer. So clearly there’s a relationship there, especially around Diablo.

I think we might be surprised by the amount of third party support we see lined up for this Switch. Nintendo’s clearly hoping we will. But I think a lot of third parties feel like they missed the boat on the Switch launch and are determined not to do the same again. The third-party launch window lineup for a system coming off the massively successful Switch is likely to look a lot different from the launch window lineup for a system coming off the disastrous Wii U.
 
The Switch being modern, x86 Nvidia pc type architecture has NOTHING TO DO with Nintendo hoping and praying Skyrim and Witcher 3 would be on it, but everything about getting a powerful hybrid for Nintendo gaming and setting a BC foward thinking standard for Nintendo software to move on to new hardware rather than be remade/re-ported every gen.
it only supports your point that switch is not x86 processor architecture, but (the far superior) ARM instead
 
I know I’ve been eyeing Resident Evil 4’s March 24 release date with suspicion, but another big third party game that seems poised to come out in the first half of 2023, with a PS4/Xbox One version, from a developer that seems to have a good relationship with Nintendo, and in a series that has a history on Switch, is…Diablo IV. Being able to get that day-and-date with the other versions would be a nice feather in the Switch’s cap, no?

Activision Blizzard is one of a vanishingly small number of third parties that supported the first Switch with a launch title (Skylanders). They’re also one of a very small number of third parties to make their own Amiibo. And there was even special edition Switch hardware for Diablo III. That’s rare for any third party game, but especially a third party game from a non-Japanese developer. So clearly there’s a relationship there, especially around Diablo.

I think we might be surprised by the amount of third party support we see lined up for this Switch. Nintendo’s clearly hoping we will. But I think a lot of third parties feel like they missed the boat on the Switch launch and are determined not to do the same again. The third-party launch window lineup for a system coming off the massively successful Switch is likely to look a lot different from the launch window lineup for a system coming off the disastrous Wii U.

I’m personally hoping for a “Prepare to Die” edition of Elden Ring. Switch gets the game with dlc and the other platforms get the dlc upgrade on the same day.

Bandai Namco has a fantastic relationship with Nintendo and I can see them wanting to make that happen.
 
I still think that’s a long time. 2023 to 2030 is seven years. Nintendo’s gone that long between generations only twice, both with hardware that was first released in the eighties. Even the massively successful DS got a successor after six and a quarter years.

I actually think they’re a bit more likely to move in the opposite direction, and instead of having half-step “not a new generation” machines like the DSi and New 3DS, just move to having more iterative generations with smoother transitions instead.
Oh neat, we return to the iterative idea. I'm not even opposed to that; I do think that's still a possible option.
Although, I think that our old collective guess on iterative cadence was something like ~3 years or so? Now, I'd say that for such an approach, the pace would probably be in the 4-5 year range in order to reliably deliver noticeable improvement while remaining economically viable. So that could be, for example, Drake in 2023, revised-Drake-plus-ultra/Drake-next in 2027-2028 (shouldn't be hard to be a peer to the PS5 generation by then), and Drake-next^2 in ~2031-2033.

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Anyway so I hope it’s this:


Switch OLED body, or similar. Has an OLED screen of course. So, same dimensions as the OLED.

720p-1080p display, 60Hz or 90/120Hz OLED with VRR if the 90/120Hz panel. Can use HDR this time. This I don’t expect though. But I do see TV HDR being a thing.

Improved Joycons. Nothing more needs to be said.

A dock that is either like the OLED one, or it is one that is improved a bit over the current OLED dock. Just differentiated I guess.


Battery improved to 5000-5300mAh from the current one that is 4310mAh in the switch models. Except the lite, that one is lower. Hey, it’s been nearly 6 years since the original battery. It improves 5% each year. A 5000-5300mAh battery can be a small ask.


128GB storage, maybe eUFS of the older ones? or maybe not? But, hopefully 128GB as the minimum.


12GB of Random Access Memory, LPDDR5. Later revisions get 5X and a new lite.

5/7nm

8 A78C cores. 1.7-2.1GHz range for 7 cores. 8th core is clocked to 1GHz if possible. It’s the OS core. This would draw little. Full cache configuration too. So yes, 8MB L3, 4MB L2, whatever it was for L1.


ok so, the GPU. 1536 shaders right. Portable mode: 537.6MHz, 460MHz and 384MHz different profiles.

Listen it’s on a newer node.

Docked: well, clearly double the portable clock frequency. But if we want to be a little fancy, 1228MHz. This is in TV mode, battery doesn’t matter so much here. On a newer node, it will be pretty manageable since it has actual cooling. Unlike phones…. cough Exynos 2200 cough




I know some want ~1.305GHz for reasons… you do you. Don’t see why not though, but sure let’s entertain that.


Anyway….


And finally, a 4-6MB SLC that both the GPU and CPU can use.


Oh, and at least 3.5H battery life at the minimum.




I’m not expecting all of this, but it would be cool to have. It can last me until the next decade.

I think.

$399.99-$449.99

Edit: actually this is more like my ceiling in terms of expectations. Like the highest they can do.
Your turn for the Famiboards->Internet (somehow attributed to Nate)->Famiboards loop? :p
We've rehashed all this stuff enough such that your ceiling isn't too far off from mine. Max clocks are somewhat higher than mine; CPU because IIRC, you're expecting a larger power budget than I am. GPU difference would probably lie in me being a bit conservative with the docked clocks.
The interesting difference in the ceilings in our heads is that you're thinking of an extra level of cache, while I'm hoping for expanding the pre-existing L3 cache.
 
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I’m personally hoping for a “Prepare to Die” edition of Elden Ring. Switch gets the game with dlc and the other platforms get the dlc upgrade on the same day.

Bandai Namco has a fantastic relationship with Nintendo and I can see them wanting to make that happen.
I almost mentioned Elden Ring in my post too!

Yeah, something like Resident Evil 4 day-and-date with other platforms in March, Diablo IV day-and-date with other platforms in April, TotK in May, and a late-but-enhanced port of clear 2022 GotY Elden Ring would make a pretty big statement in the first half of 2023. And there’s basically no overlap with Nintendo’s franchises and RE/Diablo/Elden Ring; Nintendo could release their own launch window software too.

I think Nintendo pretty much has all “the Nintendo audience” on Switch. They’ve clearly reached the lapsed fans who didn’t buy a Wii U or 3DS, and I think TotK will be very successful in starting to move that audience over to the new hardware. But it we’re looking at avenues for growth, if we’re looking at ways for the new hardware to not just be as successful as Switch but more successful, trying to make further inroads into the core gamer market does make some sense. They’ll mostly focus on growing their own properties, of course. They’ll try to figure out a way for Splatoon 4 to be an even bigger success than Splatoon 3. But I don’t think Nintendo looks at a follow-up to a console that’s sold 120M and sets a goal to also sell 120M, I think they set a goal to sell 160M. Or 120M, but in fewer years. And some of that is going to come from trying to expand the idea of who the person who buys a Nintendo console is. So far, that really hasn’t included a lot of the AAA enthusiast console gamers. But I think that might change, in a big way. With the Switch we’ve already seen Nintendo be hungrier for that audience than they’ve been in a long time, prominently featuring Skyrim and NBA 2K in the Switch reveal trailer. I think that’s only going to grow with the new hardware.

A lot of PS4/Xbox One owners haven’t upgraded yet. And with the new Switch hardware, Nintendo is positioned to offer those gamers a different kind of upgrade. That’s a little different from last gen, where the Switch arrived later after the PS4/Xbox One came out and those consoles weren’t supply constrained in the same way the PS5 and new Xbox consoles are now.
 
It will be called the Nintendo Swatch and every system sold will include a $5 surcharge to cover legal fees in the Swiss lawsuit.
 
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Oh neat, we return to the iterative idea. I'm not even opposed to that; I do think that's still a possible option.
Although, I think that our old collective guess on iterative cadence was something like ~3 years or so? Now, I'd say that for such an approach, the pace would probably be in the 4-5 year range in order to reliably deliver noticeable improvement while remaining economically viable. So that could be, for example, Drake in 2023, revised-Drake-plus-ultra/Drake-next in 2027-2028 (shouldn't be hard to be a peer to the PS5 generation by then), and Drake-next^2 in ~2031-2033.

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Your turn for the Famiboards->Internet (somehow attributed to Nate)->Famiboards loop? :p
We've rehashed all this stuff enough such that your ceiling isn't too far off from mine. Max clocks are somewhat higher than mine; CPU because IIRC, you're expecting a larger power budget than I am. GPU difference would probably lie in me being a bit conservative with the docked clocks.
The interesting difference in the ceilings in our heads is that you're thinking of an extra level of cache, while I'm hoping for expanding the pre-existing L3 cache.
I’m indifferent when it comes to the amount of cache that they should have, either a larger L3 cache, or an extra layer of cache to help the overall system out with everything. Im seeing it more like being the cache that helps to reduce the bandwidth constraints as much as possible, but being separate it can be used however they please. Though this would mainly help both the CPU and GPU with bandwidth, whilst needing to fetch less from the RAM, saving a bit. Or help the GPU with RT and not need to always go through the CPU taking up resources. It would be more like Lovelace larger cache in a way. I’d imagine going through the CPU would create some congestion.


Either way, a larger amount of cache is something I’d like to see.



As for the higher CPU budget, with the increase to the battery density proposed here, I’d imagine it would be OK for them to squeeze in at least a bit more room for the CPU to function as best as it.
 
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This is an inaccurate description of how the dev process works.

Nvidia has not designed a new API for Drake. It’s an identical API to the Switches + the existing DLSS API.

Nvidia has to reimplement the API but this is identical to developing a graphics card driver. Drake’s GPU is Ampere. Nvidia had to build a Switch driver for Ampere, the same way they made a Vulcan driver and a DX driver and a Metal driver.

The R&D process for Drake is not different from the one for the APU in the last few PlayStation consoles, or Xboxen, or even the Wii U. Nintendo’s decision to use a off the shelf chip for Switch is unusual.

I think your base point that Nintendo will want to use Drake for an extended period going forward to recoup those costs is likely true, but it also doesn’t preclude a die shrink with much faster clocks and/or cortex upgrade in 2026

Thank you for correcting me on this. Always happy to learn a bit more of how these things work.

What I was trying to allude to was the difficulty in switching architecture and how this impacts backwards compatability vs say a shrink with higher clocks and more shaders on the same architecture.

There have been a lot of discussions on YouTube and in this thread pertaining to how the shaders for Switch games come pre compiled with the code and how this would result in the need for a translation layer or a new shader to be issued for each game to run on Drake. I assume this is largely due to driver differences between architectures.

NVN2 is what compiles those shaders is what I am assuming. So I am likely incorrectly attributing that necessary effort all to the API.

My point still stands though, a move to a new architecture adds a lot of extra effort in terms of backwards compatability and cross development between the two platforms vs the ps4 Pro and xbox one x situation which were the same chip just bigger.

I agree a shrink in 2026 is possible but it depends how big of a leap it is and how Nintendo wants to use that extra headroom, could be used to have a longer battery life again or solely to increase yields and cut costs.
 
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