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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

I feel like Nintendo has different standards

they just launched a flagship long-term live game on their flagship (currently only) platform, I don't think they'll deprecate that platform so soon
it doesn't depreciate the platform though. Drake is expected to be priced higher than the Switch and Splatoon 3 is still playable on that switch. many here expects a lot of Nintendo's games to still be on switch, including the system seller, TotK. it's a non-issue
 
The EVGA situation is worrisome. You may think that this doesn't affect Nintendo, but Nvidia's terrible track record with partners just keeps pilling up....

I imagine any deal Nintendo has with Nvidia is already established and that Nvidia can't change the terms at this late stage. Just my guess but I have to imagine the next hardware is already full mapped out, contracts signed and it's just moving toward manufacturing relatively soon.
 
I dont think Nintendo will keep releasing games for current Switch versions past 2025. because they will want to focus only on next gen hardware in one point and they will want people upgrade to next gen hardware by that time.

Why would they care about everyone needing to “upgrade to Drake” by 2025? They won’t care. Most of the games will play the same across all systems.

Nintendo will be perfectly happy if people are buying Switch OLED’s in 2026 and playing 2026 games on Switch OLED’s.

All they care about is what drives their software engagement.

Could it be that they would release Drake two months or so before the new Zelda? I imagine that they will want as many people as possible to play the game on the new hardware, and it will be in high demand when it releases.

If they want as many people to have Drake as possible to play ToTK on, they should release Drake next month, not wait till two months before lol
 
Thinking back, it took me 3 years to decide to buy a 3DS, and that was simply because Pokemon X&Y were releasing later that year, so, as long as my Switch keeps humming along, and this upgrade/successor isn't required with haste, I don't mind waiting a bit again.
 
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The EVGA situation is worrisome. You may think that this doesn't affect Nintendo, but Nvidia's terrible track record with partners just keeps pilling up....

I imagine any deal Nintendo has with Nvidia is already established and that Nvidia can't change the terms at this late stage. Just my guess but I have to imagine the next hardware is already full mapped out, contracts signed and it's just moving toward manufacturing relatively soon.

Complacency and business relationships can always turn on a dime over longer periods of time, but the level of importance that the Nintendo Switch holds in legitimizing Nvidia's Tegra business on a grand scale can't be understated. This next iteration of Switch will only improve this since Nvidia doesn't have a major footprint in the mobile market. As the years go by and Tegra SoC's manufacturing process moves to more advanced nodes, the prospects of other customers outside of Nintendo looking to Nvidia for a SoC solution becomes greater. Especially if a product like the Drake Switch can fully Trojan horse Nvidia tech like DLSS into the mainstream against AMD's offerings...
 
You have one company with powerful lawyers, who is an industry leader in graphics rendering.

And then you have another company with powerful lawyers, who is also an industry leader but in the the direction gaming medium.


I’d say that these two are at arms length and will not let either one get close to the other.


At all.

Actually, nvidia would be the one to try and buddy up Nintendo rather than the other way around, but Nintendo would erect their arm, index finger pointed up, pushed into their face and go, “shh, we aren’t doing that. Stay that distance and don’t come closer 😊
 
Ok, so I am fully in team March 2023 for the launch of new hardware.

  • Fiscal year ends March 2023 so Nintendo will want to get a nice boost at the end of the year.
  • Zelda is coming out in May. They have shown very little at this point.
  • Pikmin 4 was announced with 0 gameplay. That game is begging for new hardware as it will no doubt look gorgeous.
  • Nintendo always has a game for March, and it is usually a big game at that. Nothing has been announced for March. This is a gamble, but I am betting on Metroid Prime 1 HD being the March game. Nintendo wants that reveal to show off the new hardware.
  • While I admit, this is not uncommon for Nintendo, they only have one game dated after February and another with a "2023" window. I really think that Nintendo is holding out for a January reveal with a blowout of games.
I will bookmark this post so I can laugh at it next March when none of this comes true.

Nothing in your list would prevent Drake from releasing this holiday though.

Drake would still sell extremely well and boost Q4 sales even if launched in Q3

I agree they are holding back on showing some games so they can show them off on the new hardware, but you don’t have to hold off till next year to do that.

Launch it this holiday, then start showing how all the games look on it.

And as I’ve said before, holding hardware back to March just so it has a “big game” to launch with makes no sense. It doesn’t need anything to launch alongside of it to sell well/sell out.

If Drake is already out this holiday, they can still do a big January Direct blowout showing a bunch of games running on it.

It's not just me that thinks launching in May with TotK is, like, the most obvious outcome right? Occam's razor and all that.

Not really. Nothing would suggest either Drake or ToTK need each other to sell well at their launches.

Meaning they aren’t holding either back from releasing to wait for each other. There would be other reasons.

I like the idea of them launching the new system with Prime Remake, to help promote the franchise more before Prime 4 releases. It seemed to work well for Dread.

I think this is plausible. No reason they can’t announce Metroid remake alongside a new model announcement in a few weeks. It’s not like Metroid Prime remake would need a huge lead time between announcement and release.

I love the idea of launching before march but I don't think their projections necessarily indicate new hardware this fiscal year

I think it does.

Switch hardware sold 23 million this last FY.

That was a 20% drop from the previous FY, even with the OLED launch helping boost half of the year’s sales.

If they really plan on not releasing new hardware this FY, they should be projecting ~18-19 million…especially considering how conservative they like to be when making projections.

They are still maintaining a 21 million projection.
 
I feel like Nintendo has different standards

they just launched a flagship long-term live game on their flagship (currently only) platform, I don't think they'll deprecate that platform so soon
Whether a next gen Switch is truly a distinct "platform" is kind of debatable, but even if it is, it should pick up the Splatoon 3 torch fairly quickly.
The EVGA situation is worrisome. You may think that this doesn't affect Nintendo, but Nvidia's terrible track record with partners just keeps pilling up....
One gets the sense that Nvidia is fairly invested in having a console platform that they're powering, given that it seems like they are probably the ones who approached Nintendo (twice, even).
 
You have one company with powerful lawyers, who is an industry leader in graphics rendering.

And then you have another company with powerful lawyers, who is also an industry leader but in the the direction gaming medium.


I’d say that these two are at arms length and will not let either one get close to the other.


At all.

Actually, nvidia would be the one to try and buddy up Nintendo rather than the other way around, but Nintendo would erect their arm, index finger pointed up, pushed into their face and go, “shh, we aren’t doing that. Stay that distance and don’t come closer 😊
Just to add, Nintendo worked with Nvidia on the Nintendo 3DS since 2006. But Nintendo ultimately rejected Nvidia in favour of Digital Media Professionals Inc. (DMP) for the Nintendo 3DS.

So there's always a possibility Nintendo could reject Nvidia in favour of another company in the future. (Certainly after Nintendo releases new hardware equipped with Drake, of course.)
 
If Nintendo markets/brands this new hardware as a "revision", they need to plan this out very, very carefully. When Switch Lite first launched, sales were a bit underwhelming according to JPMorgan and Citigroup. I don't think Lite ever performed as well as Nintendo hoped. And as of August 2022, Nintendo continues to struggle to hit its Switch production targets as a result of the global chip shortage - and it's dragging down their sales. That will continue to be painful for Nintendo as we head into 2023.

As I mentioned earlier, Nintendo is in a very awkward position right now. Rising inflation, interest rates, taxes and fuel costs, are putting pressure on consumer disposable income. That affects spending on electronic products such as PCs, smartphones and gaming products. Timing is everything, and I believe Nintendo has been very smart about waiting things out.

Branding is another issue if they choose to market this as a revision. Can they clearly explain to consumers the difference between a $350 Switch OLED, a $450 Switch 4K and a Switch 2? Nintendo initially thought Wii U would be an instant hit simply because it was "Nintendo in HD". What could possibly go wrong with "Nintendo in HD"? Well, Nintendo found a way to fumble "Nintendo in HD". And the same company could easily fumble "Nintendo in 4K" @ $450 during a weakened economy and a global chip shortage.

If they launch new hardware next year, I hope they're smart enough to launch "Tears of the Kingdom" alongside it.
I think the solution for Nintendo is their own cloud service that seemlessly bridges the gap for their own software.

Partner with Nvidia for a GeForce Now like cloud service where 1st party Drake games when played in current Switch models automatically launch in the cloud, but if played on a Drake model, it plays locally. This means that if you don't have a good connection, you can just go out and buy a Drake model, and gives Nintendo flexibility in addressing future hardware.

Nintendo never has to abandon current Switch owners, and their success can grow unhindered by hardware. As for Nintendo's stance on cloud gaming, here is a 2019 quote from Nintendo President Furukawa:
While we don’t expect all games to become cloud games any time soon, the technologies are definitely advancing. We see a future where cloud and streaming technologies will develop more and more as a means of delivering games to consumers. We must keep up with such changes in the environment. That being said, if these changes increase the worldwide gaming population, that will just give us more opportunities with our integrated hardware and software development approach to reach people worldwide with the unique entertainment that Nintendo can provide.

To carry the 115M current Switch owners forward is also super important to Nintendo, given how much these owners love first party games, given the record sales on that end.
 
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I think the solution for Nintendo is their own cloud service that seemlessly bridges the gap for their own software.

Partner with Nvidia for a GeForce Now like cloud service where 1st party Drake games when played in current Switch models automatically launch in the cloud, but if played on a Drake model, it plays locally. This means that if you don't have a good connection, you can just go out and buy a Drake model, and gives Nintendo flexibility in addressing future hardware.

Nintendo never has to abandon current Switch owners, and their success can grow unhindered by hardware. As for Nintendo's stance on cloud gaming, here is a quote from Nintendo President Furukawa:


To carry the 115M current Switch owners forward is also super important to Nintendo, given how much these owners love first party games, given the record sales on that end.

Nintendo’s own software will easily run on an OG Switch for a good while without the need for cloud. Just look at the Crash and Spyro games on PS4 Pro - they look absolutely brilliant, while also running well on Switch. The way Nintendo’s games look means they will scale down well in the same manner.
 
Nintendo’s own software will easily run on an OG Switch for a good while without the need for cloud. Just look at the Crash and Spyro games on PS4 Pro - they look absolutely brilliant, while also running well on Switch. The way Nintendo’s games look means they will scale down well in the same manner.
Having said that, Yoshi's crafted world doesn't even run at 600p, Link's Awakening has a weird stuttering problem, Zelda and Mario couldn't hit 1080p, and everything uses dynamic resolution and so many first party games are 30fps... This is all docked mode I'm talking about too, it's even worse with portable... Nintendo has been releasing this level of HD games for 10 years, don't expect it to be forever, I'd guess in just 2 years from now, they will start announcing exclusives for new hardware.
 
Nothing in your list would prevent Drake from releasing this holiday though.

Drake would still sell extremely well and boost Q4 sales even if launched in Q3

I agree they are holding back on showing some games so they can show them off on the new hardware, but you don’t have to hold off till next year to do that.

Launch it this holiday, then start showing how all the games look on it.

And as I’ve said before, holding hardware back to March just so it has a “big game” to launch with makes no sense. It doesn’t need anything to launch alongside of it to sell well/sell out.

If Drake is already out this holiday, they can still do a big January Direct blowout showing a bunch of games running on it.



Not really. Nothing would suggest either Drake or ToTK need each other to sell well at their launches.

Meaning they aren’t holding either back from releasing to wait for each other. There would be other reasons.



I think this is plausible. No reason they can’t announce Metroid remake alongside a new model announcement in a few weeks. It’s not like Metroid Prime remake would need a huge lead time between announcement and release.



I think it does.

Switch hardware sold 23 million this last FY.

That was a 20% drop from the previous FY, even with the OLED launch helping boost half of the year’s sales.

If they really plan on not releasing new hardware this FY, they should be projecting ~18-19 million…especially considering how conservative they like to be when making projections.

They are still maintaining a 21 million projection.
I’m still in the holiday-2022-launch-is-possible camp, with you. There’s been so much smoke for so long, production could begin in earnest any moment (may already have!) and announcement could happen any day. I’ll say it seems more unlikely knowing what we know but it’s still a possibility. We just don’t know.

TOTK doesn’t have to be tied to drake. It will provide a good boost in May when the initial launch rush/hype could be dwindling.

Though what would the launch title then be? Could that have a big IP completely unannounced that will be used along side the reveal to generate hype? And if they don’t have a big one ready to go could they, would they just lean in on current games (botw, splat3, mk8, etc) updates to drive demand? That and big trailers for 2023 games that can really show off the grunt? Maybe but I think they would love to have a title that’s a real show piece for drake at launch. Could a new 3D Mario be ready in time? Maybe Metroid 4?
 
Ok, so I am fully in team March 2023 for the launch of new hardware.

  • Fiscal year ends March 2023 so Nintendo will want to get a nice boost at the end of the year.
  • Zelda is coming out in May. They have shown very little at this point.
  • Pikmin 4 was announced with 0 gameplay. That game is begging for new hardware as it will no doubt look gorgeous.
  • Nintendo always has a game for March, and it is usually a big game at that. Nothing has been announced for March. This is a gamble, but I am betting on Metroid Prime 1 HD being the March game. Nintendo wants that reveal to show off the new hardware.
  • While I admit, this is not uncommon for Nintendo, they only have one game dated after February and another with a "2023" window. I really think that Nintendo is holding out for a January reveal with a blowout of games.
I will bookmark this post so I can laugh at it next March when none of this comes true.

I like everything in this post.
 
I can’t imagine Nintendo deprecating 110 million units with 6 month’s notice.

I especially can’t imagine them doing it even if they wanted to in this market. Sony would love to see the PS4 die and they can’t kill it off.

There is enough stuff announced without release dates - Advance Wars, Pikmin, Prime 4 - and enough stuff heavily rumored that is probably coming - Prime Remake, EPD Kong, GB/GBC/GBA, WiiU Zelda Ports - to round out a solid 12-18 months of support.

Even if Nintendo pivoted to entirely Drake dev tomorrow we’d still get a solid 2023 of base Switch stuff that rivals the final year of the Wii, the Wii U or the Game Cube.
 
I can’t imagine Nintendo deprecating 110 million units with 6 month’s notice.

I especially can’t imagine them doing it even if they wanted to in this market. Sony would love to see the PS4 die and they can’t kill it off.

There is enough stuff announced without release dates - Advance Wars, Pikmin, Prime 4 - and enough stuff heavily rumored that is probably coming - Prime Remake, EPD Kong, GB/GBC/GBA, WiiU Zelda Ports - to round out a solid 12-18 months of support.

Even if Nintendo pivoted to entirely Drake dev tomorrow we’d still get a solid 2023 of base Switch stuff that rivals the final year of the Wii, the Wii U or the Game Cube.
3DS was announced in March 2010 for a holiday launch, and the only reason it was announced that early, is because the 3D screen leaked to the press... They did an E3 blow out and then at the end of September that year, they delayed it until February the next year... 3DS was the successor to the 154M Nintendo DS, so just imagine Nintendo doing that again with the Switch. Also DS launched at the end of 2004, making it a 6 year life cycle until the 3DS. 3DS was also a 6 year life cycle until Switch.
 
I think that's really hard thing to do when you've just released a brand-new generation. Positioning this as a full successor could result in backlash from people who bought one of the recent DLC waves that will be ongoing until late 2023/2024. Of course it's going to be a substantial leap in power, but if the form factor is largely the same I think they may well still try to position Drake as part of the Nintendo Switch family
I'm talking about perception. The casual gamer that just bought into a DLC road map that goes into 2024 might freak out if there's a new generation. They wouldn't be correct to, but that wouldn't stop them. Functionally, Nintendo calling it a revision or a successor doesn't need to change how long the current Switch is supported, but the average consumer will probably not see it that way
As long as new hardware can play Switch games on and their DLC works on said new hardware, then I don't see the issue whatsoever. Besides, the DLC wave already faced backlash in some corners of the internet regardless, as it was (a) depleting the number of retro courses for future games and (b) meant that there'd be no new Mario Kart until some short time after the DLC at the earliest.
This feels like a distinctly enthusiast type of mindset, that anything made on old hardware is immediately considered unplayable trash, not unlike the current belly-aching about PS5 "suffering" through what will now be 4 years of cross-gen game releases. And it's a super-minority of people making those complaints, and clearly not a very influential minority, either, since it's happening regardless.
Is it really that hard though? PS5 and Xbox Series seem to be going fine, with the backlash in hindsight mostly being from Sony not coming out and admitting they weren't going to move on from PS4 right away. This is sort of just how consoles work now. It can very much still be "a Switch" while not being of the same generation.

Besides, trying to explicitly position it as a revision runs the very real risk of underselling it. Revisions typically don't sell as well.
Not even now, this is how consoles have kinda always been, except instead of a cross-gen period, you had "last-gen exclusives". The only notable exceptions to this have been for poor-selling hardware, which is kind of a "no duh" sort of thing.
boy I sure hope Nvidia doesn't bungle the relationship with nintendo like they did with evga
Different kind of relationship, the factors that dissolved the EVGA relationship don't apply to Nintendo and never have. So long as Nintendo sees value in the Tegra lineup, they'll keep partnering with Nvidia, who seemed to REALLY want that business from Nintendo long term, which is a strong contrast to the EVGA situation.
Much much better to start selling a successor when your popular games are still going strong than wait until everything has dried up. If they're doing things right, there should never really be a point when some notable games aren't getting active support.
Yeah, people calling for Nintendo to wait until after the DLC are basically saying "I want a software drought". It's manufacturing a problem for new hardware to fix, which is kinda scummy.
Even before „NX“ got announced, Reggie said that it’s a platform, not a console. It doesn’t make a difference if it’s a revision or a successor.
I wonder why he wouldn't want to say it was a "console" or a "handheld" prior to announcement.
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I feel like Nintendo has different standards

they just launched a flagship long-term live game on their flagship (currently only) platform, I don't think they'll deprecate that platform so soon
We've got live footage from the future of Splatoon 3 copies after the launch of new hardware:
212.jpg

In all seriousness, though, it's a rather exceptionalist argument being made here, and one that doesn't exactly make sense. The only way around this supposed problem would have been to delay its release and make it exclusive to the new hardware, because there is no other alternative that would not result in the same conclusion of Splatoon 3 being a flagship long-term live game still getting support on a "non-flagship" device.
Just to add, Nintendo worked with Nvidia on the Nintendo 3DS since 2006. But Nintendo ultimately rejected Nvidia in favour of Digital Media Professionals Inc. (DMP) for the Nintendo 3DS.

So there's always a possibility Nintendo could reject Nvidia in favour of another company in the future. (Certainly after Nintendo releases new hardware equipped with Drake, of course.)
It's possible, but it would require Tegra not continuing to be best in class in its power envelope available for Nintendo to use or a competitor equaling this best-in-class SoC with the same level of support as Nvidia provides at a cheaper cost to Nintendo. And the way things are going, it'll be 10 more years minimum before that's the case.
 
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In all seriousness, though, it's a rather exceptionalist argument being made here, and one that doesn't exactly make sense. The only way around this supposed problem would have been to delay its release and make it exclusive to the new hardware, because there is no other alternative that would not result in the same conclusion of Splatoon 3 being a flagship long-term live game still getting support on a "non-flagship" device.
if the Switch 2 were happening I think they would have delayed it

Splatoon 3 coming out at the end of Switch's life is not desirable for them
 
if the Switch 2 were happening I think they would have delayed it

Splatoon 3 coming out at the end of Switch's life is not desirable for them
Because it's not going to be compatible with new hardware? Because it's not going to get an upgrade/glow-up for new hardware?
I sincerely don't see the issue here.
 
Because it's not going to be compatible with new hardware? Because it's not going to get an upgrade/glow-up for new hardware?
I sincerely don't see the issue here.
because when Switch 2 is out, Switch is old news. Splatoon 3 is an evergreen title with Nintendo Switch branding, so a replacement will kill its momentum

I guess they could do the xbox one 360 game maneuver where they rebrand the same cartridge like it's a new game

edit: like this

xbox-360-games-are-getting-xbox-one-boxes-1479382769898.jpg
 
because when Switch 2 is out, Switch is old news. Splatoon 3 is an evergreen title with Nintendo Switch branding, so a replacement will kill its momentum

I guess they could do the xbox one 360 game maneuver where they rebrand the same cartridge like it's a new game

edit: like this

xbox-360-games-are-getting-xbox-one-boxes-1479382769898.jpg
They could also do the PS thing of having a separate SKU for new hardware with all of its upgrades already present, but that seems less likely. In lieu of either option, they'll probably do the MHRise route when Sunbreak came out and they sold it with a download code in the case: just badge existing copies with a sticker on the shrink-wrap, saying something like "enhanced for Switch DX" or whatever they name the bloody thing.
Or they could just leave it alone, because it's a strong and popular IP and the most recent version of a popular online game, because it may keep selling as is regardless of it being on an older platform? Splatoon's momentum almost entirely comes from it being the newest Splatoon game, not the platform it's on, especially with backwards compatibility still in play and a possibility of a software upgrade path. Let's not forget that Splatoon as a franchise started on a platform that should have killed its momentum all on its own, but the franchise grew like an unkillable weed in hostile earth. The IP is the thing, not the platform.

Hell, while on the subject, I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo did the unprecedented thing of continuing to sell Switch games on the eShop for the new hardware and creating no distinction between them and titles only available on that new hardware, which would obviously be a first for them.

Either way, it's an easily solved problem, if it's even a problem at all.
PS4 is still getting games but its sales and public perception are completely gone
Its hardware sales may be gone, but that's not what we're discussing, Splatoon ain't hardware.
If you meant that its software sales are gone, I won't speak for North American software performance (if only because NPD doesn't normally split those sales by platform SKU anyways), but in Japan and Asia, the ascendence of Switch seems to have had a hell of a lot more to do with how software on PS4 has performed than the hardware transition itself. And at this point, if PS4 software sales were shit in the West, then no one would have incentive to keep making software on PS4 this late in the game, right? There's only one other reason I can think of for why publishers would still make PS4 software that doesn't sell worth a damn, but it's only suspicion and has no basis in fact, so I'll leave that unsaid.
 
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for the love of god they will not call it that

I might have been OK with it at some point, but I think it’s just far too limiting now.

Switch 4K Model reads as a model that upscales Switch games to 4K, but it sounds like that’s massively underselling what this is. Exclusive 3rd party titles that run at sub 4K on the “4K Model” sure is an odd thing to market.

It’ll probably be along the same lines as New, Super, Next, Advance, etc. “I’m a better version of the system, but ambiguously so”. They don’t need to be so weirdly on-the-nose as they were with the OLED Model.
 
I might have been OK with it at some point, but I think it’s just far too limiting now.

Switch 4K Model reads as a model that upscales Switch games to 4K, but it sounds like that’s massively underselling what this is. Exclusive 3rd party titles that run at sub 4K on the “4K Model” sure is an odd thing to market.

It’ll probably be along the same lines as New, Super, Next, Advance, etc. “I’m a better version of the system, but ambiguously so”. They don’t need to be so weirdly on-the-nose as they were with the OLED Model.
For what it sounds like it’ll be or do they definitely won’t call it Switch 4K I agree.
 
if the Switch 2 were happening I think they would have delayed it

Splatoon 3 coming out at the end of Switch's life is not desirable for them
Why not? They’ve started new Pokémon generations at the end of a system’s life before, to the point where the sequels (Black & White 2, Ultra Sun and Ultra Moon) have to come out after the new hardware is released. I don’t see how continuing to support Splatoon 3 after a new model of Switch comes out is any different?

They’re going to be selling the current Switch hardware for a long time. We don’t have a ton of details about how Nintendo is going to position Drake but one thing that does seem very clear is that it’s extremely unlikely that this new hardware is going to be a direct replacement for the existing $299 Switch hardware. Given what we know of the specs it seems essentially guaranteed to be a higher-priced, enthusiast product that is sold alongside the current “mainstream” Switch for at least some time.

Splatoon is very popular with kids; I don’t think gating S3 behind brand-new $399+ hardware would make any sense at all, really.
 
PS4 is still getting games but its sales and public perception are completely gone

it was similar for 3DS
If PS4 games weren't selling, there probably wouldn't be so many of them still coming. The hardware itself doesn't matter if the game runs in the new hardware.

Also the hard division between PS4 and PS5 was a choice by Sony that I don't expect Nintendo to replicate. I expect the "Also playable on Switch Drake" stickers to appear and multiply rapidly.
 
Any new thoughts since the Direct on the huge component expenses from the last financial report? Are they just stocking up on parts to avoid a lukewarm launch like the PS5 and Xbox Series?

It could still make sense as a long term strategy for Nintendo. They'd be losing money on renting all that storage space in the short term, but Switch sales probably make up for that, and it allows them to start their next hardware cycle on a strong launch, with large volumes shipped right out of the gate.

If that's the case, they could be aiming for holiday 2023 at the earliest, or some time during 2024.
 
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with Drake rumor specs and its relationship with japanese third parties I would say day 1 support from Capcom, Koei-Tecmo, Konami and Square-Enix except exclusives like FFVIIRemake, FFXVI or Silent Hill are very pausible.

The great doubts are Sega RRG and Bandai-Namco internal teams IPs.

From western third parties, I think the big surprise will come from Take Two and Warner. EA will continue to disappoint.

Eh…I don’t see why Drake would get any more/different support from these publishers than the 100 million current Switch userbase system has gotten.

I mean, Square-Enix can’t even be bothered to port the ps3 versions of Kingdom Hearts games onto the Switch. They do a “lazy” cloud version of them.

Why would Drake change this equation?

At least for hardware, Nintendo could coast for a while on hardware and software. They aren’t in that decline we saw for stuff like Wii’s later years. They could probably get away with waiting until 2024, but I dunno if they will.

No, Nintendo has spoken many times about their mistakes during the Wii years. They have specifically said they don’t want to make the similar mistakes they did back then. They specifically have said they will be more proactive in pushing their hardware and game development forward during their great success rather than waiting too long when demand/interest has been squeezed dry.

There is no way they wait till 2024 to boost engagement in Switch.

They will strike very soon. They aren’t afraid of investing in cutting edge tech, they don’t want to wait too late to start future development tech like they waited too long for HD development during Wii years. They have been telegraphing this understanding of past mistakes and new strategies to avoide those past mistakes for a long time now

Nintendo would be wise to time new hardware for 3rd party developers to jump in at a convenient time more than simply waiting for things to magically fix themselves.

Leave luck to heaven.

Nintendo doesn’t give a f**k about coordinating hardware for 3rd party publishers. Sorry if this is too blunt lol, but it’s true

There's a 6 years and 2 months gap between Breath of the Wild and Tears of the Kingdom.

Drake isn't coming after Zelda. They won't put their sole future platform in a position where it wouldn't get a new 3D Zelda until very late in its lifecycle (~2029).

All other options are on the table, but that one above looks pretty impossible to me.

3D Zelda is irrelevant to Drake.

I get people wanting to bend over backwards tying them together, but they exist separate from each other.

I mean, maybe in some alternate timeline Nintendo holds off on the release of Skyward Sword in 2011 and decides to launch it alongside the Wii U in 2012 instead…but so what? It didn’t happen. Just because BotW being fully finished and polished for two systems coincided with the Switch launch, doesn’t mean this is their new MO

They aren’t holding onto ToTK in order to wait till they have enough Drake chips to launch.

ToTK is launching when Nintendo feels like the game is ready to launch.

Nintendo knows most of the sales of ToTK will be to the current 100 million Switch model base. Not the new, expensive model.

Nintendo doesn’t need ToTK to help sell the new Drake model…Nintendo will be lucky to have enough supply to meet demand no matter what.

I agree with you that the new pro model won’t release after May and after ToTK…but that has nothing to do with the game’s release date.

Whatever reason Nintendo has decided on when to announce and release the Drake Switch upgrade model, it will be for reasons OTHER than what particular software is ready or not
 
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As a cross-gen Drake launch title or as a Switch exclusive, TotK will sell truckloads on the current Switch either way.
The more important question is how will it affect Drake hardware sales if the system launches with mostly older ports from Nintendo - Zelda will surely be ported and so will Splatoon 3. But what will be Drake's killer app? I don't see a Mario Kart 9 filling that role as it's a family game and families aren't the same demographic as early adopters.

In other words, if Drake launches much later than Zelda, will it need its own system seller? And if so, what would that be? A new 3D Mario? The rumored Donkey Kong? Could it still be a success with no major exclusives?
 
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From same reasons i wrote already, at one point Nintendo will not bother with older hardware any more and they will want that all previous Switch owners upgrade to new hardware (and best way to that is to cut completely support).

Thats good example, its similar with Sony and PS4 support, Sony will release some PS4 versions of games in next year too, but after next year I dont see an more PS4 version of games coming from Sony, offcourse there will be more games even after next year from 3rd party.
Having that example on mind, I will change 2-3 years support after Drake support, to around 3 years of Nintendo support after Drake launch.

Comparing with PlayStation and Xbox is pointless. Those are systems whose new hardware is directly tied in to AAA 3rd party “next gen” development.

Those systems rely mostly on new 3rd party game sales. Those systems sales rely mostly on what advancements 3rd party devs are putting on games over previous gen releases.

Sony will stop doing “cross gen” games as soon as the major 3rd party games on the system stop.

Nintendo consoles aren’t driven by 3rd party games, let alone “next gen” pushing 3rd party games…so they don’t fashion their 1st part development anywhere near the same as Xbox/PlayStation.


In my mind Zelda & Drake are definitely releasing together in May. Nintendo is likely quite nervous about launching a Switch successor because of the infamous Boom & Bust cycle they've been on, so they'll try to make it as similar to the Switch launch as they can.

Other Switch OG launch window sequels have already been released, likely because COVID threw the planning in disarray - Xeno3, Splatoon 3 and MK8 DLC (and stinky horse is finished, 1 2 switch's sequel). Zelda seems to be purposefully held back with the way it's being marketed, probably as the final Switch launch followup to help Drake.

thanks for reading my fanfic

Seeing the differences between BotW on Wii U and Switch there's definitely so many ways to spruce TotK up for Drake: resolution, draw distance, shadow quality, texture quality (BotW on Switch definitely had less conspicuous textures), reflection quality, particle amount etc. etc.. TotK was made for Switch primarily so stuff like loading masks when transitioning between Skyrule and Hyrule will likely stay in, but considering that BotW is still the best looking Switch game and it was made for Wii U I have no doubts that TotK will be stunning on Drake.

Most people will buy/play ToTK on the current Switch models. The minority will buy/play it on the relatively expensive Drake model.

So this is nothing like the BotW Wii U/Switch scenario.


I could see them being willing to release it earlier for a significantly big third party title, and I think, say, Resident Evil 4 is big enough to be that title.

I think they’re going to be making a big push for third party support with this system. It seems almost purpose-built to break down the excuses for not supporting the Switch. Not powerful enough for your PS4 games? Well, here you go.

Drake is designed to help Nintendo transition Nintendo games into 4K/DLSS development for the future.

That’s it.

They lamented they waited too long to get into HD development. They let Wii fizzle out and tried to transition to HD development with the Wii U launch. It hurt them in terms of output.

They have vowed not to make that mistake again.

This new model is a bridge to that, designed to release alongside continued success. To develop in tandem. All together.

Drake is in no way Nintendos “answer” to get some 3rd party support that some people think the Switch is lacking.


That’s why earlier I said I thought they could pair RE4 with a wide audience/blue ocean title like a minigame collection or something like Nintendogs. I don’t think Nintendo would release a new system and not have any first part title with it.

This isn’t a new system. This is an addition to the Switch family of systems.

They can pair it with any moderately known game that shows off the system. Doesn’t have to be a AAA game or casual friendly juggernaut.

Just like Metroid Dread was a good companion with the OLED. Not a huge seller, but it did its job.


Given whom Drake would initially sell to, I don't think Nintendo should overthink the "showpiece" title. I'm sure there will be one, but Zelda is what everyone wants regardless of demographic. Day one Drake purchasers only want one thing and it's disgusting: up to 4k, 60fps, and maybe some added visual flourishes. It's enough justification for them.

Who knows what the "proper" showpiece even would be. Given the audience, something like 3, 4 Switch or Nintendo Land 2 doesn't make sense. IMO it's gonna be the brevy of third party games that won't be on Switch but on Drake thanks to the new horsepower. Shit like Cyberpunk and Metro Exodus Enhanced

Naw. People who buy Drake will be people who want to play Nintendo games with better graphics/performance.

Not people who want to play Witcher 3 and Skyrim a bit better on a portable than their pc/Xbox/ps

Zelda TOTK is most definitely a showpiece title, especially if it ends being another GOTY candidate. People are going to want to play that game in its's best form at a reasonable price.

Most people who buy ToTK will be buying it for their OG Switch, Lite Switch, OLED Switch.

Hate to break it to you :p


Does Nintendo need a showpiece title to launch new Nintendo hardware? No, but rising inflation is putting pressure on consumer disposable income. So, launching expensive hardware with a system-selling title is a very good idea.

3DS XL was launched with New Super Mario Bros 2.
Nintendo Switch Lite was launched with Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening.
Nintendo Switch OLED was launched with Metroid Dread.

The truth is, there isn't a more highly anticipated Nintendo game in 2023 than "Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom". Not Fire Emblem, not Donkey Kong. Even if they released Metroid Prime 4 in 2023, TorK is still way more anticipated than that game. If you're launching new hardware, you couldn't pick a better game to launch with than 3D Zelda.

Tbh, Nintendo doesn’t care how “fast” the Drake model sells.

They simply want it to be a Switch tier option to keep gamers who care about resolution/graphics/performance engaged in Switch gaming for the next ~4 years than they would have if no Drake model existed.

Nintendo isn’t planning on shifting their game development nor their services to be specifically “Drake centric” until many years from now.

This isn’t the same situation as Microsoft wanting everything to shift to the Series S/X and away from the Xbox one/X as soon as possible. Or Sony wanting that going from ps4 to ps5.
 
Any info on current stock of switch units in the Americas, Japan and/or Europe?

Also, was the quote "splatoon 3 will have 2 years of splatfest updates support" a real quote from nintendo or just people speculating?

I personally very much doubt SP3 EOL would be indicative of new hardware coming up, however, who really knows when it comes to nintendo really...
 
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Drake is designed to help Nintendo transition Nintendo games into 4K/DLSS development for the future.

That’s it.

[citation needed]

They lamented they waited too long to get into HD development. They let Wii fizzle out and tried to transition to HD development with the Wii U launch. It hurt them in terms of output.

They have vowed not to make that mistake again.

This new model is a bridge to that, designed to release alongside continued success. To develop in tandem. All together.

You seem very sure that you know what goes on within Nintendo boardrooms at the highest level.

Drake is in no way Nintendos “answer” to get some 3rd party support that some people think the Switch is lacking.

Really? In no way is making the Switch a more attractive target for third party development that a potential goal of the new hardware? How do you know that?

This isn’t a new system. This is an addition to the Switch family of systems.

Tomato, tomahto. Also we really don’t have any idea how this thing is going to be branded or how Nintendo is going to spin it. So, again, [citation needed].

This is a speculation thread. It says so right in the title. Other people are allowed to interpret things differently than you, without them being wrong. You’re not the only one uniquely blessed with the ability to prognosticate about what Nintendo might do. And since your predictions are just that, predictions, and since you’re not actually proven right yet, you could stand to maybe not talk down quite as much to everyone else in this thread, or make statements of fact about what Nintendo’s motivations are when you really have no way of actually knowing them.
 
Who is buying a new console and then not a new game the same day that takes advantage of that new console? Why buy the console in the first place?

I bought the OLED Switch to play a bunch of games that had come out before it on the better screen.

I didn’t buy any new Switch games holiday 2021/early 2022


I don't think it really makes sense to try and pass Drake off as a revision. Just make it clear Switch support isn't ending right away.

It makes less sense to pass Drake off as a gen breaking successor in the way Sony and Microsoft positioned ps5/Series SX

Why doesn’t it make sense to say “hey, here is a new Switch model that plays Switch games with better graphics/performance” in the same way OLED Switch was “hey, here is a new Switch model that plays Switch games portably better on a much better/bigger screen”

?

Why doesn’t this make sense.

I think it's much easier for someone to spend $450 on a brand new, next-generation console rather than a "revision", if that makes sense. Marketing can affect consumer psychology. Taking $450 and spending it on the new Nintendo Switch revision would be a tall ask for most people. But $450 for the Nintendo Switch 2? That's suddenly a lot more exciting.

And given the rumored specs, along with the current economic enviornment, I think $450 is the floor for this new system. $500 is definitely possible.

The $350 Switch is selling like gangbusters. It’s the top selling Switch Sku. They have trouble keeping up shipments with demand.

Look at Japan weekly sales. The most expensive Switch option is outpacing all other models sales by far…in the territory that often gets derided as the most cost conscious gaming territory.

OLED Switch demand has proven to Nintendo that the price threshold for a Switch revision is nowhere near met.

If people are choosing the $350 model over all other options $50-$150 cheaper…just for the better screen? $450 doesn’t seem outrageous at all for a top tier model that has a better screen AND insanely better gaming graphics/performance

Plus, Nintendo can price this as high as they want. They don’t need it to sell like it’s a successor. They just need it as an option like the ps4 pro and Xbox one X one as a lifecycle lengthener.

It only needs to sell ~20 million or so to be successful at what it’s designed to do

Is it really that hard though? PS5 and Xbox Series seem to be going fine, with the backlash in hindsight mostly being from Sony not coming out and admitting they weren't going to move on from PS4 right away. This is sort of just how consoles work now. It can very much still be "a Switch" while not being of the same generation.

Besides, trying to explicitly position it as a revision runs the very real risk of underselling it. Revisions typically don't sell as well.

I mean…the who purpose of a revision ISNT to be the best selling sku of the platform.

The whole purpose of a revision is to keep software engagement high during the latter half of the platform’s life cycle.

Appealing to gamers who might have lost interest in gaming on that platform had their not been the hardware refresh.

That’s the whole point of a hardware revision/iteration.

The ps4 pro and Xbox one X did a fantastic job keeping console gamer engagement high from 2016-2020. It would have been much much less had these models not been released.

The ps4 pro and Xbox One X did NOT need to sell more than the OG ps4+ps4 slim or the OG xboxOne or Xbox one S. It sold like a quarter of that. But it served its purpose.
 
No, Nintendo has spoken many times about their mistakes during the Wii years. They have specifically said they don’t want to make the similar mistakes they did back then. They specifically have said they will be more proactive in pushing their hardware and game development forward during their great success rather than waiting too long when demand/interest has been squeezed dry.

There is no way they wait till 2024 to boost engagement in Switch.

They will strike very soon. They aren’t afraid of investing in cutting edge tech, they don’t want to wait too late to start future development tech like they waited too long for HD development during Wii years. They have been telegraphing this understanding of past mistakes and new strategies to avoide those past mistakes for a long time now
Shuntaro Furukawa, log off your alt and go greenlight a Donkey Kong game.
 
Why would they care about everyone needing to “upgrade to Drake” by 2025? They won’t care. Most of the games will play the same across all systems.

Nintendo will be perfectly happy if people are buying Switch OLED’s in 2026 and playing 2026 games on Switch OLED’s.

All they care about is what drives their software engagement.

Well they will care everyone upgrade to new hardware at one point,
there will be big power and technical difference between current Switch versions and Drake versions, so for them would be easier to make games just for one hardware and also worry only about one production line of one device instead of two with quite different parts (SoC, RAM, internal memory and who knows what else).

I disagree that Nintendo would be happy if they still selling Switch OLED in 2026, they would want to have in 2026. all Switch Drake versions of hardware on market and not any more in sales current ones.


Comparing with PlayStation and Xbox is pointless. Those are systems whose new hardware is directly tied in to AAA 3rd party “next gen” development.

Those systems rely mostly on new 3rd party game sales. Those systems sales rely mostly on what advancements 3rd party devs are putting on games over previous gen releases.

Sony will stop doing “cross gen” games as soon as the major 3rd party games on the system stop.

Nintendo consoles aren’t driven by 3rd party games, let alone “next gen” pushing 3rd party games…so they don’t fashion their 1st part development anywhere near the same as Xbox/PlayStation.

I disagree comparison is pointless, 2 years after PS5 launch Sony keep releasing PS4 games also (actually currently I can remember only one Sony PS5 exclusive),
that never happened before, and main reason for that is because PS5 is using again AMD hardware so this time its not completely different type of hardware/tech and development/environment, and because of that making cross gen games is easier than before.

Nintendo with Drake will be in similar situation, Drake would basically be full next gen hardware compared to current Switch units and Nintendo will keep supporting for some time both Switch hardware (current gen and next gen).
 
If i were Nintendo it would be called Switch 2. It will make it much easier to market a more expensive system imo. I'm also thinking of making the next 3D Mario and Mario Kart X exclusive to drake as well, save them for 2024.

Next year's line-up could consist of many or all of this content.

Zelda TotK
Pikmin 4
New 2D Mario
Metroid Prime 4
Major Donkey Kong Release
Tomadachi Collection sequel
Kirby Remake
Zelda HD Remasters
Fire Emblem Engage
Metroid Prime Remake
Xeno Expansion
Splatoon 3 Expansion
Pokemon Expansion
Switch Sports DLC
Mario Party Superstars DLC
Mario Kart DLC
GB/GBA NSO

+ any other titles that have been rumored or already announced that could come next year from Nintendo.

That should be more than enough content to keep the Switch momentum up next year and to give reason to buy or upgrade to a next-gen Switch system.

I agree that they could call it Switch 2, but talking about price, that goes both ways.
If they market it like Switch 2 that would be mass market product and not just for enthusiasts, and Nintendo would to have more affordable price in that case because is mass market product.
On other hand, if market it something like Switch "Pro" IMO in that case they can sell it much higher price point because it "Pro" is not for everyone but for enthusiast users that are willing to spend more money.

I am closer to 1st option and with price point of $399 to $449 max.
 
Does Nintendo need a showpiece title to launch new Nintendo hardware? No, but rising inflation is putting pressure on consumer disposable income. So, launching expensive hardware with a system-selling title is a very good idea.

3DS XL was launched with New Super Mario Bros 2.
Nintendo Switch Lite was launched with Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening.
Nintendo Switch OLED was launched with Metroid Dread.

The truth is, there isn't a more highly anticipated Nintendo game in 2023 than "Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom". Not Fire Emblem, not Donkey Kong. Even if they released Metroid Prime 4 in 2023, TorK is still way more anticipated than that game. If you're launching new hardware, you couldn't pick a better game to launch with than 3D Zelda.

Completely agree, like you wrote, of course that Nintendo doesn't need Zelda TorK or some other huge title for Drake launch,
but if Drake is really launching in 1H of next year, than most likely would be launching alongside Zelda TorK because hardly Nintendo would miss such-a opportunity to showcase and promote basically next gen Switch hardware.

And not only that, but with Drake they could have similar what they had in 1st year of Switch, showcase in January-February, launch with new Zelda game and new Mario game in holiday season.
 
I mean it'll have been 6 years since release. I think it's unlikely we'll get first party Drake exclusives until 2024+ or likely 2025+, but that's more because of Nintendo wanting to tap their massive Switch install base than anything.

Im pretty sure the successor SoC beyond Drake will be launching around 2026 or so…so the idea of Drake having mostly games in 2026 that the OLED Switch can’t play seems kind of silly to me :p

I’m still in the holiday-2022-launch-is-possible camp, with you. There’s been so much smoke for so long, production could begin in earnest any moment (may already have!) and announcement could happen any day. I’ll say it seems more unlikely knowing what we know but it’s still a possibility. We just don’t know.

TOTK doesn’t have to be tied to drake. It will provide a good boost in May when the initial launch rush/hype could be dwindling.

Though what would the launch title then be? Could that have a big IP completely unannounced that will be used along side the reveal to generate hype? And if they don’t have a big one ready to go could they, would they just lean in on current games (botw, splat3, mk8, etc) updates to drive demand? That and big trailers for 2023 games that can really show off the grunt? Maybe but I think they would love to have a title that’s a real show piece for drake at launch. Could a new 3D Mario be ready in time? Maybe Metroid 4?

Imo, it could be any type of game that shows off what the new hardware can do. Doesn’t have to be AAA.

Think of Links Awakening remake selling Lite models or Metroid Dread selling OLED models.

Honestly, announcing and showing off the Metroid Prime remake on Drake hardware would be plenty for this holiday.


[citation needed]

Haha.

Just imagine, I responded to your post that stated “ they’re going to be making a big push for third party support with this system. Its almost purpose-built to break down the excuses for not supporting the Switch. Not powerful enough for your PS4 games? Well, here you go.”

With just…….. “citation needed” mic drop

Just imagine I did that.

Now, after you’ve done that, pull up your big boy pants and actually respond in a mature manner to what I said…

I have tons of quotes of Nintendo reflecting on the Wii years and saying they want to be proactive in new game development technology for their games…during current success rather than waiting too long.

I’d love to read all your quotes from Nintendo reflecting on how they need to fashion their hardware development to insure maximum multiplat port support. Let’s see it.

You seem very sure that you know what goes on within Nintendo boardrooms at the highest level.

I’m basing my responses on what Nintendo execs have literally said in public in the last few years.

That, coupled with what historically Nintendo has done when it comes to hardware/software design decisions…how am I wrong on this? In your opinion.



Really? In no way is making the Switch a more attractive target for third party development that a potential goal of the new hardware? How do you know that?

Cause when have they ever done that?

Give me some examples of a brand new Nintendo console or Nintendo system revision model that was designed to make 3rd party porting easier first and foremost.

It’s always been about Nintendo software designs and goals.


Tomato, tomahto. Also we really don’t have any idea how this thing is going to be branded or how Nintendo is going to spin it. So, again, [citation needed].

This is a speculation thread. It says so right in the title. Other people are allowed to interpret things differently than you, without them being wrong. You’re not the only one uniquely blessed with the ability to prognosticate about what Nintendo might do. And since your predictions are just that, predictions, and since you’re not actually proven right yet, you could stand to maybe not talk down quite as much to everyone else in this thread, or make statements of fact about what Nintendo’s motivations are when you really have no way of actually knowing them.

For a speculation thread, you are getting awfully heated about my speculation…

The people I respond to in this thread are stating very matter of factly what they expect will or won’t happen. This is all speculation/opinion. Don’t kid yourself.

Just admit you don’t like my POV compared to them.

To suggest I’m the only one in this thread pretending like they know how this will go…is very silly. Lots of people have strong, differing opinions on this.
 
Haha.

Just imagine, I responded to your post that stated “ they’re going to be making a big push for third party support with this system. Its almost purpose-built to break down the excuses for not supporting the Switch. Not powerful enough for your PS4 games? Well, here you go.”

With just…….. “citation needed” mic drop

Just imagine I did that.

I note that you very specifically edited out the words “I think…” that started the statement of mine you quoted. I wasn’t making a statement of fact, I was presenting it as my own conjecture.

Now, after you’ve done that, pull up your big boy pants and actually respond in a mature manner to what I said…
Excuse me?

First, not a boy.

Second, your entire post is just you making spurious assertions as to what Nintendo is doing or thinking without really providing any evidence to support that. There really isn’t any “mature” way to respond to that other than to say that you aren’t bothering to substantiate any of your claims, which I did.
 
Give me some examples of a brand new Nintendo console or Nintendo system revision model that was designed to make 3rd party porting easier first and foremost.
I dunno about first and foremost, but of the top of my head?

Nintendo Switch. It was designed in a LOT of ways to facilitate 3rd-party development, learning from past failures in this regard. And it's impossible to look at the system and not say, in some pretty significant ways, that it was successful at doing just that.

Wii U was allegedly designed with 3rd-parties in mind, even though it was a super-bad attempt at it that sold poorly to consumers, but that was one of Nintendo's stated design principles for it and the first year of software wasn't terrible for games released on it, all things considered; still has more Call of Duty games on it than Switch does. They went as far as to include a free copy of Unity Pro middleware with every dev kit. A obviously bad attempt is still an attempt, though.
 
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
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