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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

DLSS can’t create pixel data it can only interpolate it from previous frames. If the underlying assets don’t have more detail then DLSS is buying you… a lot less.
Higher resolution and image quality are a positive regardless of asset detail. Higher asset detail is a positive regardless of resolution. They don't really have to walk together. If we were currently in a situation where at 1080p we wouldn't be able to tell if assets improved any more things would be different.
I just assumed anybody in here also had a 4K TV just because…well, even the bottom of the market TVs are 4K. Perhaps I’m out of touch :X
If everyone has bought a TV in the last couple years, probably. But not everyone has. Personally I've been trying to find the right 4K 3D set to upgrade to, but the supply isn't so high.
Those were one of 1st consoles on market that were successful, so they are not best examples (I mean they were released in 85" and 92"), later better examples:
Shortly after GC was released N64 support was stopped, soon after Wii was released GC support was stopped (regardless basically same architecture and tech), soon after Wii U was launched Wii support stopped, soon after Switch was launch Wii U support was stopped. You mentioned success, why Nintendo stopped Wii support after Wii U launch, when Wii was 100m+ seller?
None of those systems remained relevant long enough. Even Wii had fallen drastically from its max success by the time Wii U arrived. But it was still in a better situation than N64 or GCN, which is why it still saw some continued support from things like Just Dance forever. Switch... is still essentially at its software peak. It's currently in a much much much better place than N64 was when GCN arrived, than GCN was when Wii arrived, than Wii was when Wii U arrived, than Wii U was when Switch arrived. I'd be interested in continuing that further back, but it's hard to find solid numbers before the late 90s. Right now the closest historical comparison would probably be GBA->DS, where GBA software seems to have peaked slightly after DS released, since it didn't have a normal lifespan.
 
That’s not true. Texture detail will be aliased if you don’t use appropriate mipmaps and texture filtering for the resolution you will be outputting.
Yep, Alex from Digital Foundry provided a very good example with it in the NIOH 2 tech review he did several months back.


I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: There’s a game that has DLSS, and then there’s a game that has a good implementation of DLSS.


These are not the same people!
 
I don't know what the date meant, but I'm already curious. Does anyone have the source for that? Because maybe there is some previous context in the thread where he has put it
See this post. Since the date was posted in a direct speculation thread it likely was their guess for that and not necessarily a hardware reveal.
 
Who is buying a new console and then not a new game the same day that takes advantage of that new console? Why buy the console in the first place?
The price of the game does not add up to that of the console. Nobody buys a console and then doesn't buy games, right? Yet usually only the price of the console is considered, except in bundles.
 
Who is buying a new console and then not a new game the same day that takes advantage of that new console? Why buy the console in the first place?
If we're talking about a revision, to have an improved experience with existing games. I shelved Age of Calamity and other struggling games in hope that a stronger Switch would be released.
 
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I imagine some of the trepidation around Zelda as a launch title is that people suspect it designates (or at least Nintendo thinks it designates) a distinct new generation, whereas I feel like a lot of us still think Nintendo will try to market Drake as a revision, at least at first. But I don't think that's necessarily an issue. Hypothetically, if some were to buy Drake because they thought it was the only way to play Zelda, that's a win in Nintendo's books. (I say hypothetically because I think such a customer would be less enthusiast, and therefore less likely to be successful in getting the console day one.) As long as they continue to support the current Switch and it's 100m+ users for a decent period of time, I think they avoid backlash for the most part, as well.
I don't think it really makes sense to try and pass Drake off as a revision. Just make it clear Switch support isn't ending right away.
 
So it occurred to me that Nintendo is likely looking at the Mario movie as a major part of the upcoming marketing push for Drake. You can bet your butt there’s going to be a “trailer” ad for the Drake playing right before that movie begins in theaters.

My guess is that Nintendo is pulling out all the stops to have an amazing new 3D Mario game trailer/gameplay to be a part of that. I’m guessing they’ll double down on marketing for the movie knowing that every butt in those seats is going to be in on a new 3D Mario game on a new console, especially if the movie is good experience. So every dollar spent on marketing movie is doing double duty marketing game/drake.

The Movie releases in NA April 7.
 
That’s not true. Texture detail will be aliased if you don’t use appropriate mipmaps and texture filtering for the resolution you will be outputting.
You're talking about DLSS settings nitty-gritty, which is not something I was saying. Just that at a fixed output resolution, higher quality models and textures will still result in a better image. Which better be the case if all the people thinking we're stuck with a 720p screen for the rest of the decade are right. Improved assets and improved output resolution both improve things, it's not a waste of time to only be able to do one sometimes.
 
I don't think it really makes sense to try and pass Drake off as a revision. Just make it clear Switch support isn't ending right away.
I think that's really hard thing to do when you've just released a brand-new generation. Positioning this as a full successor could result in backlash from people who bought one of the recent DLC waves that will be ongoing until late 2023/2024. Of course it's going to be a substantial leap in power, but if the form factor is largely the same I think they may well still try to position Drake as part of the Nintendo Switch family
 
So it occurred to me that Nintendo is likely looking at the Mario movie as a major part of the upcoming marketing push for Drake. You can bet your butt there’s going to be a “trailer” ad for the Drake playing right before that movie begins in theaters.
this is genius
 
I think that's really hard thing to do when you've just released a brand-new generation. Positioning this as a full successor could result in backlash from people who bought one of the recent DLC waves that will be ongoing until late 2023/2024.
Did I miss the part where calling it a successor would also necessitate Nintendo going around and slapping the rest of the MK8 tracks out of everyone's hands?
 
So do we think new hardware will release before or around the new Zelda game?
I don't recall any successful platform released in May. I think they'll get this out in March tbh. It's suspiciously empty, while every other year had a Nintendo game that month. I think they'll release the hardware with Metroid Prime Remastered and not Zelda, just like OLED. They're probably going to announce this later so they can show Metroid Prime 4 alongside it. If Prime HD is 2023, 4 would be 2024 and Nintendo wouldn't be okay to give a 2024 release window in 2022. So my bet is they announce both in early 2023. There's the possibility however that they give a "development is progressing" alongside a Twitter drop this year and make a full blowout of Prime HD and the reveal trailer of Prime 4 in February Direct.
 
So it occurred to me that Nintendo is likely looking at the Mario movie as a major part of the upcoming marketing push for Drake. You can bet your butt there’s going to be a “trailer” ad for the Drake playing right before that movie begins in theaters.

My guess is that Nintendo is pulling out all the stops to have an amazing new 3D Mario game trailer/gameplay to be a part of that. I’m guessing they’ll double down on marketing for the movie knowing that every butt in those seats is going to be in on a new 3D Mario game on a new console, especially if the movie is good experience. So every dollar spent on marketing movie is doing double duty marketing game/drake.

The Movie releases in NA April 7.
Actually smart, but doubt they'd do more than have Drake ads running in the pre-roll set
 
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Did I miss the part where calling it a successor would also necessitate Nintendo going around and slapping the rest of the MK8 tracks out of everyone's hands?
I don't think there's any need for this kind of snark.

I'm talking about perception. The casual gamer that just bought into a DLC road map that goes into 2024 might freak out if there's a new generation. They wouldn't be correct to, but that wouldn't stop them. Functionally, Nintendo calling it a revision or a successor doesn't need to change how long the current Switch is supported, but the average consumer will probably not see it that way
 
My new problem with the idea of Botw2 being a launch title is that they would have effectively leaked their hardware launch date 8 month in advance, which I think is completely unheard of?
They normally confirm those details for hardware a few months beforehand, like they did even with Twilight Princess in September 2006 for example.
They did tho.
Breath of the Wild (at the time only Zelda Wii U) was confirmed to be coming to the Switch(at the time NX) the same time they announced it was being delayed to 2017(and the NX announced to be coming in 2017). That was spring 2016, almost a year before Switch came out.
 
Metroid Prime HD isn't going to be a holiday title because they're pushing it to next year to launch with Drake and needed to change the name on all the marketing materials. After all, HD is only 1080p and the game will run at 2160p on Switch Ultra. :p
 
If Nintendo markets/brands this new hardware as a "revision", they need to plan this out very, very carefully. When Switch Lite first launched, sales were a bit underwhelming according to JPMorgan and Citigroup. I don't think Lite ever performed as well as Nintendo hoped. And as of August 2022, Nintendo continues to struggle to hit its Switch production targets as a result of the global chip shortage - and it's dragging down their sales. That will continue to be painful for Nintendo as we head into 2023.

As I mentioned earlier, Nintendo is in a very awkward position right now. Rising inflation, interest rates, taxes and fuel costs, are putting pressure on consumer disposable income. That affects spending on electronic products such as PCs, smartphones and gaming products. Timing is everything, and I believe Nintendo has been very smart about waiting things out.

Branding is another issue if they choose to market this as a revision. Can they clearly explain to consumers the difference between a $350 Switch OLED, a $450 Switch 4K and a Switch 2? Nintendo initially thought Wii U would be an instant hit simply because it was "Nintendo in HD". What could possibly go wrong with "Nintendo in HD"? Well, Nintendo found a way to fumble "Nintendo in HD". And the same company could easily fumble "Nintendo in 4K" @ $450 during a weakened economy and a global chip shortage.

If they launch new hardware next year, I hope they're smart enough to launch "Tears of the Kingdom" alongside it.

I think it's much easier for someone to spend $450 on a brand new, next-generation console rather than a "revision", if that makes sense. Marketing can affect consumer psychology. Taking $450 and spending it on the new Nintendo Switch revision would be a tall ask for most people. But $450 for the Nintendo Switch 2? That's suddenly a lot more exciting.

And given the rumored specs, along with the current economic enviornment, I think $450 is the floor for this new system. $500 is definitely possible.
 
If Nintendo markets/brands this new hardware as a "revision", they need to plan this out very, very carefully. When Switch Lite first launched, sales were a bit underwhelming according to JPMorgan and Citigroup. I don't think Lite ever performed as well as Nintendo hoped. And as of August 2022, Nintendo continues to struggle to hit its Switch production targets as a result of the global chip shortage - and it's dragging down their sales. That will continue to be painful for Nintendo as we head into 2023.

As I mentioned earlier, Nintendo is in a very awkward position right now. Rising inflation, interest rates, taxes and fuel costs, are putting pressure on consumer disposable income. That affects spending on electronic products such as PCs, smartphones and gaming products. Timing is everything, and I believe Nintendo has been very smart about waiting things out.

Branding is another issue if they choose to market this as a revision. Can they clearly explain to consumers the difference between a $350 Switch OLED, a $450 Switch 4K and a Switch 2? Nintendo initially thought Wii U would be an instant hit simply because it was "Nintendo in HD". What could possibly go wrong with "Nintendo in HD"? Well, Nintendo found a way to fumble "Nintendo in HD". And the same company could easily fumble "Nintendo in 4K" @ $450 during a weakened economy and a global chip shortage.

If they launch new hardware next year, I hope they're smart enough to launch "Tears of the Kingdom" alongside it.

FYI the first article you linked is one of the biggest memes of 2019 on InstallBase, and a worthy successor to this masterpiece from the year before:

Unless there’s significant change or something else new, the Switch story has been exhausted.
 
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They did tho.
Breath of the Wild (at the time only Zelda Wii U) was confirmed to be coming to the Switch(at the time NX) the same time they announced it was being delayed to 2017(and the NX announced to be coming in 2017). That was spring 2016, almost a year before Switch came out.
I'm talking about launch dates. They were only confirmed for game and console 7 weeks before launch.
 
I think that's really hard thing to do when you've just released a brand-new generation. Positioning this as a full successor could result in backlash from people who bought one of the recent DLC waves that will be ongoing until late 2023/2024. Of course it's going to be a substantial leap in power, but if the form factor is largely the same I think they may well still try to position Drake as part of the Nintendo Switch family
Is it really that hard though? PS5 and Xbox Series seem to be going fine, with the backlash in hindsight mostly being from Sony not coming out and admitting they weren't going to move on from PS4 right away. This is sort of just how consoles work now. It can very much still be "a Switch" while not being of the same generation.

Besides, trying to explicitly position it as a revision runs the very real risk of underselling it. Revisions typically don't sell as well.
 
You're talking about DLSS settings nitty-gritty, which is not something I was saying. Just that at a fixed output resolution, higher quality models and textures will still result in a better image. Which better be the case if all the people thinking we're stuck with a 720p screen for the rest of the decade are right. Improved assets and improved output resolution both improve things, it's not a waste of time to only be able to do one sometimes.
It's an issue with rendering, not DLSS specifically. For example, consider rendering an 8K texture at 1080p That texture will always be aliased, because the resolution isn't high enough to represent the high frequency detail, and if you view it at a distance or at an angle, the aliasing will be even more prevalent. It's not an advantage to use 8K assets at 1080p (or 4K); actually, it's a disadvantage, because it guarantees that there will always be aliasing even in the best case scenario.

The way to solve that issue is to run a low-pass filter over the 8K texture before downsampling to generate mipmaps. The low-pass filter ensures that the texture detail won't be aliased at the downsampled resolution. You can then dynamically swap out the mipmaps based on distance and incorporate anisotropic filtering to mitigate the problem of viewing at a distance or an angle.
 
The ‘heavily rumored’ Pro model is a successor in everything but name. It’s vastly more powerful than the current Switch by every metric, and represents a generational leap in hardware.

You are looking at it the wrong way.

The “heavily rumored” new model is a “pro” in everything but power differentials.

Speculation, as of now, i'm not aware of a March 2023 game from them. So many games dropping on Feb 24th feels a bit strange, not that i mind it as that's my birthday and i would like to have some better memories of my 2023 birthday than i have from my 2022 one (....)

So, how would we feel if Drake is being announced end of Jan 2023, shortly after FE Engange's release for a late March release?

Technically, TotK and Drake don't have to launch close to each other (or together), but would end of March to May 12th be close enough to be "launch window"?

If the new model isn’t releasing this year, this would be the only other play that makes sense.

Announce it near the beginning of the new quarter (or the very end of the last quarter to not inhibit sales)…and then release the new model before the quarter ends to make up for sales you did inhibit with the announcment.

They clearly wouldn’t announce a new Switch during the holidays 2022 lol…so announcing in Jan makes sense.

I suppose they could announce at the end of March for a summer release…but I see no value, or good reason in waiting that long.

Thats what i thought too. It would be in my opinion the best solution to bring the huge Third Party Games like RDR2 to the Switch 1 as Cloud Versions and Nativ for the Drake Switch.

Why not just put the cloud version on both or the native version on both? I don’t see why they would bother splitting it up like that.

Any good arguments why they would?

Would be disappointed if Xeno 2 doesn't get a patch, it needs it more than Xeno 3 does. Without a patch it'd be capped at sub 720p in handheld mode which would stink.

If Nintendo reprinted these games, continued to sell them at full price but marketed them with Drake patches, they could breath a second life into them.

Its also why I hope Drake comes out before TotK, I want some time to play with a BotW 4K patch before (sky)diving head first into that game.

Games like Xeno 2 that have variable resolution/fps will already have the bonus effect of being able to run at higher (locked) resolutions and fps on the new hardware.

Tbh, I don’t think much patching or work is needed beyond that for these games. I mean, it would be nice if they did that, but I think the bare minimum on older games like that is good enough for most.
 
I'm talking about launch dates. They were only confirmed for game and console 7 weeks before launch.
I mean, we've had Metroid Dread release date confirmed 4 months before launch, then OLED got announced for that same day two months before launch.
That definitely can happen, moreso with the transition being way more soft this time around with games coming to Switch in 2024+
 
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So it occurred to me that Nintendo is likely looking at the Mario movie as a major part of the upcoming marketing push for Drake. You can bet your butt there’s going to be a “trailer” ad for the Drake playing right before that movie begins in theaters.

My guess is that Nintendo is pulling out all the stops to have an amazing new 3D Mario game trailer/gameplay to be a part of that. I’m guessing they’ll double down on marketing for the movie knowing that every butt in those seats is going to be in on a new 3D Mario game on a new console, especially if the movie is good experience. So every dollar spent on marketing movie is doing double duty marketing game/drake.

The Movie releases in NA April 7.
I mean, having a trailer for a new 3D Mario is kind of the dream, but i don't think Nintendo will overlap gaming and non-gaming stuff that much, tbh.

April 7 would feel right for a new 2D Mario game as that's a full month before Zelda, but we never know.

I think reveal for a 2D Mario coming late June and a 3D Mario coming holiday 2023 at February Direct is the more likely scenario. Hell, maybe they wait until E3 and make a short reveal to release with the next 3D Mario, or maybe that slips to 2024.
 
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Lets say Switch 4k model is releasing may 12th with next zelda.

Production starts 3/4 months earlier (that happened with Lite and OLED models) so inevitable leaks will appear at very early between late december to february where it will probably be announced (if remember, is launching next may).
 
Games like Xeno 2 that have variable resolution/fps will already have the bonus effect of being able to run at higher (locked) resolutions and fps on the new hardware.

The resolution will be locked but it will not run higher than the game's preset config.

Xenoblade 2 and DE have dynamic res, their config files lock the maximum res to 540p handheld and 720p docked. Drake will not run these games beyond 540p handheld without a patch - that's what I mean by sub 720p. In this instance I don't like the bare minimum.

Maybe they can enable a way to run docked profiles in handheld like the homebrew tool ReverseNX, but that's an imperfect solution.

I don't expect a DLSS patch for every game but would be fine with an upres to 720p handheld, 1080p/1440p docked, and increasing the game engine values for level of detail, texture filtering, and anti aliasing.
 
I don't think there's any need for this kind of snark.

I'm talking about perception. The casual gamer that just bought into a DLC road map that goes into 2024 might freak out if there's a new generation. They wouldn't be correct to, but that wouldn't stop them. Functionally, Nintendo calling it a revision or a successor doesn't need to change how long the current Switch is supported, but the average consumer will probably not see it that way
Tbh me myself am going to freak out if they announced Drake exclusive first party titles in 2023 already. I bought the Switch in 2021 and they released OLED that year, they're also releasing special edition OLED's, releasing Splatoon 3 and open world Pokémon, Fire Emblem and Zelda early 2023, which are both system sellers and games that current Switch owners will buy, they definitely aren't going to just let us down like that.
 
I will love to play the inevitable Monster Hunter Rise 2 on my OG Switch in 2025. I mean after how well Rise and Sunbreak did I don't think they'll stop there nor not use the foundation they built for it.

At the very least I have Metroid Prime 4 secured whenever it comes, which is most likely 2024 now that Prime Remastered is probably next year.
 
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I'm talking about perception. The casual gamer that just bought into a DLC road map that goes into 2024 might freak out if there's a new generation. They wouldn't be correct to, but that wouldn't stop them.
But shouldn't it be the opposite? If anyone was worried about a cessation of support with the arrival of a new gen, the fact that there's already a roadmap for content promised to continue working on the current generation should reassure them.
It's an issue with rendering, not DLSS specifically. For example, consider rendering an 8K texture at 1080p That texture will always be aliased, because
Yes yes yes, but mipmaps have been a normal thing for decades. It's not something new that must be taken into account if providing higher resolution assets, and the only time I've heard it come up in recent years is when something happens like a developer using them improperly in combination with DLSS.
Tbh me myself am going to freak out if they announced Drake exclusive first party titles in 2023 already. I bought the Switch in 2021 and they released OLED that year, they're also releasing special edition OLED's, releasing Splatoon 3 and open world Pokémon, Fire Emblem and Zelda early 2023, which are both system sellers and games that current Switch owners will buy, they definitely aren't going to just let us down like that.
Seems like a pretty extreme reaction, man. Producing any games in 2023 that aren't possible on 2017 hardware is letting you down? The last time they went seven years without releasing a new level of software was because the Super Famicom wasn't available yet.
I still think it would be weird to start selling a successor while Splatoon 3 is still getting active support.
Much much better to start selling a successor when your popular games are still going strong than wait until everything has dried up. If they're doing things right, there should never really be a point when some notable games aren't getting active support.
 
Lets say Switch 4k model is releasing may 12th with next zelda.

Production starts 3/4 months earlier (that happened with Lite and OLED models) so inevitable leaks will appear at very early between late december to february where it will probably be announced (if remember, is launching next may).

IF it was May I could see them announcing it around the same time as their Q3 earnings which could be the first week in Feb. That would give 3 months notice for release which is about the same as their other new models.
 
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Yes yes yes, but mipmaps have been a normal thing for decades. It's not something new that must be taken into account if providing higher resolution assets, and the only time I've heard it come up in recent years is when something happens like a developer using them improperly in combination with DLSS.
It’s nonetheless the reason why “Higher asset detail is a positive regardless of resolution” isn’t true. That’s all I’m saying.
 
Early next year's going to have the Mario movie, the opening of Super Nintendo World in the US as well as TotK. It just makes too much sense to me to launch Drake around then.

Launching Drake in 2024+ would be a bet that they don't need any new 3D Zelda to sell consoles, which seems quite risky to me.

Tbh me myself am going to freak out if they announced Drake exclusive first party titles in 2023 already. I bought the Switch in 2021 and they released OLED that year, they're also releasing special edition OLED's, releasing Splatoon 3 and open world Pokémon, Fire Emblem and Zelda early 2023, which are both system sellers and games that current Switch owners will buy, they definitely aren't going to just let us down like that.

I mean it'll have been 6 years since release. I think it's unlikely we'll get first party Drake exclusives until 2024+ or likely 2025+, but that's more because of Nintendo wanting to tap their massive Switch install base than anything.
 
It’s nonetheless the reason why “Higher asset detail is a positive regardless of resolution” isn’t true. That’s all I’m saying.
Wouldn't aliasing happen only if the surface the texture is applied to is smaller than the texture itself?

If a 1080p game applies a 128x128 texture to a surface that is taking 512x512 pixels on the display, doubling the resolution of the texture (to 256x256) while still rendering at 1080p would be great and not have aliasing.

I also think that choosing appropriate mipmaps to use is done by the GPU automatically, but the devs can bias the choice towards a higher or lower resolution mip, which is what Alex from Digital Foundry did (in the Nvidia Profile Inspector) since the GPU was (correctly) choosing lower resolution mips (to avoid aliasing) since the internal resolution was lower than 4K.
 
I still think it would be weird to start selling a successor while Splatoon 3 is still getting active support.
Pretty sure it won’t be a successor. It’s a revision that’s slowly gonna replace the OG Switch. You need some new showcase titles for that (Zelda, Mario) as well as longer service titles like Splatoon or the MK8 DLC for a really smooth transition.

Even before „NX“ got announced, Reggie said that it’s a platform, not a console. It doesn’t make a difference if it’s a revision or a successor.
 
May is a strange month to launch new hardware, I personally think that if the new Switch is indeed launching H1 '23 it's gonna be in March/April with an unannounced game.
Doubt. I mean if we want to be technical launching a big Zelda game in May is actually way weirder than launching hardware in May is.

Launching OG switch with BOTW was such a massive success it seems weird to not do that again over two months.

Like if Nintendo said to Aonuma they want to launch again in March with Zelda, and he says no can’t do it, but I can do May I doubt they throw up their hands and say “well guess we need to find another AAA launch game.”
 
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If i were Nintendo it would be called Switch 2. It will make it much easier to market a more expensive system imo. I'm also thinking of making the next 3D Mario and Mario Kart X exclusive to drake as well, save them for 2024.

Next year's line-up could consist of many or all of this content.

Zelda TotK
Pikmin 4
New 2D Mario
Metroid Prime 4
Major Donkey Kong Release
Tomadachi Collection sequel
Kirby Remake
Zelda HD Remasters
Fire Emblem Engage
Metroid Prime Remake
Xeno Expansion
Splatoon 3 Expansion
Pokemon Expansion
Switch Sports DLC
Mario Party Superstars DLC
Mario Kart DLC
GB/GBA NSO

+ any other titles that have been rumored or already announced that could come next year from Nintendo.

That should be more than enough content to keep the Switch momentum up next year and to give reason to buy or upgrade to a next-gen Switch system.
 
The absolute earliest I can see Nintendo releasing a “Nintendo Switch Series 2” exclusive first-party title is holiday 2024, with a potential SSB Next.
 
Wouldn't aliasing happen only if the surface the texture is applied to is smaller than the texture itself?

If a 1080p game applies a 128x128 texture to a surface that is taking 512x512 pixels on the display, doubling the resolution of the texture (to 256x256) while still rendering at 1080p would be great and not have aliasing.

I also think that choosing appropriate mipmaps to use is done by the GPU automatically, but the devs can bias the choice towards a higher or lower resolution mip, which is what Alex from Digital Foundry did (in the Nvidia Profile Inspector) since the GPU was (correctly) choosing lower resolution mips (to avoid aliasing) since the internal resolution was lower than 4K.
Yep, this is true. The resolution of the final output image is the upper bound on how much detail you can represent, but there is room for improvement below that mark.
 
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