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I know many people aren't talking about the Amiibo restocks, though I just wanted to clarify some things due to things that have happened since I posted this.Hello! I'm not super sure where this belongs, though since this relates to Nintendo Directs and announcements/releases happening in the near future, I thought this would fit here.
Since late July, I've been looking into Amiibo, Amiibo restocks, and the connections they have to their announcements and reveals, and I wanted to present what I've found so far and what it has related to so I can get some possible feedback on my research (I've mostly been researching this in more closed off Discord communities, so I've been trying to reach out to others without a general bias to see if they think this has much ground).
This is going to be a bit long, though there is a lot to say on the matter. I'll provide a TLDR at the end.
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- On July 25th, there was a massive Greece retailer who listed a bunch of Amiibo restocks happening.
(Source)
The first 2 waves relate to Smash Brothers, the first wave being on August 28th, and the second wave being on November 10th, Rosalina and Boo (SMB Line) were restocked on August 28th, and Wedding Mario, Peach, and Bowser, Samus (Metroid Line), Wolf Link, Archer Link, and Links Awakening Link I don't have exact dates for, so I'd assume "Fall - Holiday 2023."
This stood out to me. In 2020, there was a Polish Amiibo leak that happened, and all of those restocks pointed to Nintendo announcements being made from May 2020 - February 2021.
These included...
SMB Mario: Restocked in September 2020 (SMB 35th Anniversary)
The Zelda Line: Restocked in September 2020 (Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity's announcement)
The Splatoon Line: Restocked in June 2020 and in February 2021 (Splatoon 2 Support coming back, Splatoon 3's announcement)
Cloud and Cloud P2: Restocked in late September 2020 (Steve's Smash reveal)
Ryu: Restocked in early September 2020 (Steve's Smash reveal)
The Pokemon Smash Line: Restocked in late November 2020 (Sephiroth's Smash reveal)
After remembering this, since the Smash line was getting restocked, I decided to look into the Amiibo restocks I could and see what I connected to, and after digging, I realized that I've looked through most, if not all, of the restocks that has happened since the Switch era, and ALL of them has connected to software announcements and releases.
I wrote a document with all of the restocks I could find.
(When the restocks happen late in the month, when the announcement happens early the next month, I just put "1 month [X]" to make it simpler.)
(The last 2 Animal Crossing ones could also just be them selling off pre-existing stock since I found those on reddit, though both posts were in early April.)
(Some of these are also rough estimates due to the exact date being unavailable and the article only referring to it happening on a specific month.)
After looking at reputable Aliexpress retailer "ArtSwift"'s account, there's a lot more than this that has connected, like Smash restocks being before Sora's reveal and before his release, alongside the Metroid Smash line being restocked alongside Metroid Dread's release.
I think I looked as much as I did due to being in part disbelief that Smash news could be happening soon due to the restocks. But I couldn't find one that wasn't related to an announcement, release, or big push for that specific brand (Mar10 day, which had a Switch Bundle of "Pick 1 out of 3 Mario games" and Bowser with the Mario Movie)
Long story short, all of the Amiibo restocks they've done are related to software announcements and releases related to the line they're restocking. It's a bit of a crazy pattern.
This means all of the restocks they're doing should also connect to stuff.
So, in this same document, I wrote down what can be concluded about the restocks, New Amiibo in general, and what the restocks could be related to.
At first thought, I assumed the Smash restocks needed to be for Nintendo Live, but on their FAQ page, they specifically say that there will be no new product announcements at the event. (Source)
Then I thought Nintendo would announce them on August 28th since that's the date they go on sale. They would have to announce them then to make sure the demand for the Amiibo is there, much like how they announced the Skyward Sword Link restock on June 20th, since that didn't directly connect to a new announcement (though it did connect to TOTK's release) (Source)
But they didn't do that. This follows the pattern of what they normally do to prep up an announcement/release to silent stock stores so there is enough Amiibo stock demand for people who are interested in using them for new software.
These restocks also aren't happening in the Americas, and they have brand new packaging, which specifically excludes the American and Canadian websites. (Source)
This is due to the fact NoA is the global center of marketing for Nintendo since it is Nintendo's biggest financial market. They hold off on having Amiibo restocked in the Americas, specifically when they want to tie it into something.
For 2 examples, they restocked Kirby's Amiibo in Japan a couple of weeks after Super Kirby Clash was announced/released, and they restocked Fire Emblem Amiibos in Australia on December 16th, the day they announced the Engage Expansion Pass at The Game Awards 2022.
(Fire Emblem Source) (Kirby Source)
Of course, despite researching this extensively, I wasn't convinced anything was happening until they didn't announce it yesterday, but today, they announced the Super Mario Bros. Wonder Direct, which directly connects with the SMB Rosalina and Boo restocks that happened on the 28th.
To me, this pretty much soft-confirms something Smash-related, software-wise, is going to happen. They've never done restocks specifically for Amiibo announcements, and speaking of which...
This is probably the strongest piece of evidence relating to something Smash Brothers happening in this direct, for 5 main reasons.
- On July 4th, Artswift, the Amiibo retailer I referred to earlier, said that they expect a Sora Amiibo announcement "in the near future."
(Source)
1. They've never announced new Amiibo on their own during the Switch generation, especially for a 5-year-old game. It has always been announced alongside or shortly after new content, announcement, or release. The only time they've announced an Amiibo unrelated to new content day and date were Marine and Pearl, which...
(This is a good source to find when they've announced a brand new Amiibo.)
- It was announced 2 days after the Splatoon 2 Concert that happened in February, which happened on a weekend, which means they couldn't of announced it
- The day after, we got the Splatoon 2 Starter Kit announced
- Not even a month later, we got the Octo Expansion announced on the March 8th Direct.
2. The Sora Amiibo wasn't announced in the Sora Sakurai presents. If they were planning on just revealing it 2 months after Pyra/Mythra's Amiibo release with nothing tied to it, why not announce it alongside everyone else?
3. The Sora Amiibo code isn't in the game, which means if they randomly announce it, they would have to go back into the game after 2 years and program the Amiibo AI and roll out the update, which isn't an easy task nor is something any company nor developer would willingly do. They updated the game to have Amiibo support from Min Min to Kazuya. If they weren't saving it for something, why not include it? It'll be a waste of resources on Nintendo to do it randomly. Sakurai said the team "disbanded" in October 2021, and they would have to come back together ONLY to patch the game with Sora Amiibo support, something very unlikely if they're not working on a new game, like how they were able to patch Sm4sh to add Cloud, Corrin, and Bayonetta Amiibo support in 2017 since they were working on Ultimate, which was after they were announced in the December 2015 Smash Presentation, due to them knowing they wouldn't have the chance to announce it sooner.
(Source on Smash Ultimate updates)
4. They've never done restocks for new Amiibo specifically. Sometimes, a release could align with a new Amiibo being announced, though there has never been a case where a game, after being dormant for years, gets a new Amiibo announced with nothing new tied to it.
5. Since Sora would have to have the Smash Ultimate branding, it is very unlikely for it to be announced alongside content for a game that isn't Ultimate.
- They restocked the Smash Gamecube controller in Japan. The last time they did this was in January 2020, 3 weeks before Fighters Pass 2's reveal.
- There is a lot more that points to something happening, though I would only like to point out a couple more things.
(Source for 2023 Restock) (Source for 2020 Restock)
-Smash Amiibo tend to be stocked, on average, 16 days from the restock to their reveal (Fatmanonice's research). 16 days from now would be September 13th, the probable date of the direct.
-The Smash Site updated, seemingly removing the Accessories page that was there (Internet Archive shows it was removed by December 2022 - April 2023)
(What the Smash site looks like since April 2023) (What the Smash site looked like before April 2023)
- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe's DLC is ending in September with its last wave, much like how they announced it the earliest they could after Sora was announced. Nintendo needs to announce DLC with content waves like how they did with Smash and Mario Kart so they can put it on their NSO service.
- Restocks happen in waves ONLY with releases (TOTK, BOTW, Fire Emblem, and Kirby). This means the content the line is for has to be released at some point this year, which means it can't be for a new game or a "port" to a newer generation.
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This is about everything I wanted to share and have possible feedback on. Apologies for the long read, but there is so much here that points to more content for Ultimate being announced in the probable September direct. Even if we don't get anything Smash, it was fun looking into all of this, and at least we have something to use that could relate to new software.
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- TLDR:
Amiibo restocks have historically 99% been related to upcoming Nintendo software announcements or releases. These restocks can not relate to Nintendo Live, and they weren't announced the day they went live, meaning they relate to future announcements and releases.
Here are the upcoming restocks and what they could relate to:
-August 28th, 2023: Smash Series Restock Wave 1 [New Content Reveal?] (1 month before reveal?)
-November 10th, 2023: Smash Series Restock Wave 2 [New Content Release?] (Same month as release?)
-August 28th: SMB Rosalina and Boo Restock [Mario Wonder Direct]
-Fall 2023: Wedding Mario, Peach, and Bowser Restock [Mario Wonder] (Could be same month?)
-Fall 2023: Wolf Link, Archer Link, and Links Awakening Link [TOTK DLC/Wind Waker and Twilight Princess] (Could be same month?)
-Fall 2023: Metroid Line Samus [Metroid Prime 4 Re-reveal] (Could be same month/1 month after?) (Can't be Prime 2 and/or 3 since they don't have Amiibo Functionality)
Sora Amiibo being expected by retailers, the Gamecube controller restocks, and the Smash site updating removing the accessories tab makes me think it's more likely we'll get something Ultimate related than not, and if they want to sell a long-running DLC pass on NSO since MK8's DLC is about to end, a Fighter's Pass 3, and putting Fighter's Pass 1 and 2 on there would be perfect.
EDIT (September 7th, 2023): Today, there was a report from Eurogamer and the VGC relating to new hardware being shown to devs behind closed doors, alongside possible signs of new hardware releasing in H1 2024 instead of the expected H2 2024.
(Source)
With the MK8 Bundle being a month earlier than usual, it seems likely to me that new hardware will be at least shown by the end of the year.
(Source)
If this is the case, then the new content we could be getting could not be a full-on Pass 3, but instead takes the form of Ultimate Deluxe or something.
TLDR 2: Basically, due to recent information, I am backtracking my statements made about it NEEDING to be for a Pass 3, but rather, while I still think a Pass 3 is a likely option, it can now easily be for something relating to next-gen, taking the form of an Ultimate "Deluxe."
1. I no longer believe the Smash restocks will be for a Pass 3. With the current information out there, it makes little sense. However, I also do not think this all will only relate to the Sora Amiibo. I think this leading to an "Ultimate Deluxe" on new hardware is the most probable option and accounts for everything, including changing the packaging to remove any mention of the Switch.
2. I have no idea if the Smash stuff will be in the direct. I don't want people dismissing this entire theory if it isn't. If we get nothing, that is even stranger since they didn't announce the restocks when they actually restocked them.
3. They moved the MK8 Holiday Bundle to October and not November. This is a really weird thing to do if they weren't going to announce something relating to hardware around the month of November.
I also want to apologize if this stuff doesn't actually pan out all by the end of the year. I would have no idea why Nintendo would decide to break a basically 7-year-trend now for no reason. This took a lot of time and research, and presenting it to the public only for it, basically for the first time, not mean anything, would really suck, to put it lightly.
I do think everything listed, being Smash, Zelda, Mario, and Metroid restocks, will mean something, and it would be weird if at least the Zelda and Metroid restocks weren't for this upcoming direct.
That's all I wanted to say to the people willing to read. Once again, I have high hopes this will all pan out; "when" is just the thing in question.
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