Giancarlo
Nintendo connoiseur
4 Teraflops in docked mode, 1.5/2 Teraflops on handheld mode?
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
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Lancelot
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Having a 1/2 split would be ideal, you don't want docked to be ridiculously ahead of handheld and viceversa. If it is really 4 TFLOPS when docked, handheld must be 2 or close to 2.
I think 2/4 is the absolute best case scenario. I would be happy with 1,5/3.
SoldierDelta
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Thankfully the Switch 2 could theoretically run games with DLSS upscaled to 1080p (assuming that's the resolution of the new system's handheld screen) and have the games run very well with half the TFLOPs afaik.
darthdiablo
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If everything in this analysis by Thraktor pans out
Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
Oldpuck's leaving #teamleapday? Guess I'll have to continue flying the flag solo. On the time of 18 to 24 months from sampling to release, I assume you're talking about the TX1 and the original Switch? If so, I don't think it's really comparable, as TX1 was already entering production...
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3.4 TFlops docked/1.7 TFlops handheld. Still plenty good, plus we have more RAM, have FDE, DLSS, better architecture.
Lancelot
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Yeah, I'm going with Thraktor. It makes the most sense, and technically... Going past that point introduces diminishing returns so not a big loss anyway.If everything in this analysis by Thraktor pans out
Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
Oldpuck's leaving #teamleapday? Guess I'll have to continue flying the flag solo. On the time of 18 to 24 months from sampling to release, I assume you're talking about the TX1 and the original Switch? If so, I don't think it's really comparable, as TX1 was already entering production...
3.4 TFlops docked/1.7 TFlops handheld. Still plenty good, plus we have more RAM, have FDE, DLSS, better architecture.
2/4 would be way too low for something supposed to run native 1080p in many cases, docked pretty much needs to double handheld for such a thing to happen.
That's what they want, yes. However, it might not be a good idea to go with anything but 1/2 because the scaling between modes might turn out uneven. 3.4/1.7 is a great case for this.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Manakete
Internal rendering resolutions of 540p in handheld mode and around 780p to 810p in docked mode are basically ideal for image quality for the Switch 2.
By 2/4 I meant 2 tflop handheld 4 tflop docked. Not sure what you thought I meant.
What has changed since he wrote it?
LiC
Member
Erm... no.
"New Ring Fit Adventure" doesn't mean there's a product with that name out there being shipped. It means that the existing product, Ring Fit Adventure, is being shipped by people who are prepending the word "NEW" at the front for whatever reason they felt like in the customs declaration. In this case, it's because they're saying the condition of the units is NEW as opposed to USED.
The wording of these things is totally discretionary. If they were always accurate at face value, then I guess that would mean Ring Fit is also coming to PS4 and being released on CD-ROM for Switch.
I really want to drive the point home that all we found for sure here was a window into (some of) Nvidia's internal shipments between their own branches. The amount of insight into Nintendo or the industry as a whole from these sites is vanishingly small. This is not a source of Nintendo game leaks.
darthdiablo
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"Old news" department (not Switch 2) but if you search on "Nintendo testing kit" in those shipment data aggregator sites, there's some hits on July 2021, with model/serial XAL, which I believe refers to OLED, months before the release date of October 2021.
What I noticed is there were a bunch sent from Japan to India (the name of India company is not shown), with some text saying "Send back to France supplier". I do find shipments going from India to France (so basically Japan -> India -> France).
I wonder what "France supplier" could be. Dug a bit, there's NERD in Paris France (NERD = Nintendo Europe R&D). Not saying France supplier = NERD, but I didn't realize there was NERD until now.
What I noticed is there were a bunch sent from Japan to India (the name of India company is not shown), with some text saying "Send back to France supplier". I do find shipments going from India to France (so basically Japan -> India -> France).
I wonder what "France supplier" could be. Dug a bit, there's NERD in Paris France (NERD = Nintendo Europe R&D). Not saying France supplier = NERD, but I didn't realize there was NERD until now.
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redmutineer75
Bob-omb
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Using Thraktor's GPU clock estimates with Oldpuck's calculator (Assuming a 1080p screen and TSMC 5nm node), you could clock the CPU up to 1.5 GHz and still have around a 3-hour battery life.
With the OG switch battery?
Hosermess
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do they take Famicoins?
Lancelot
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Ah, I thought you meant 2 quarters. By "1/2" I mean half, you know fractions.
I really doubt it refers to NERD because
1: they're not a supplier
2: They mostly do really difficult engineering/ code such as emulators and the new 3ds eye tracker.
Dekuman
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I would actually Nintendo find a way to get docked to perform more than 2x better than portable. The OG Switch clocks, before subsequent GPU portable boost modes were introduced ran 2.5x times faster 768 Mhz docked vs 307 Mhz portable. That GAP was shrunk down to just under 2x with the 384 mhz portable boost mode and futher with the 460 Mhz profile, just 1.7x
This means games that uses these profiles don't get as big a jump when docked and it is a bummer. It's my biggest hardware ask for Switch is really improved docked performance.
That said, even if Nintendo sets out GPU clock to be 2.5x faster docked than portable nothing stops future Switch modes to close that gap again.
I do wonder if the new SoC would produce better DLSS/RT results docked than portable, or if the design is such that if future portable boost modes are introduced, there is enough headroom that can tinker with the docked clocks as well. And it may come to how the cooling works. IIRC, OG Switch cooling was overbuilt, and the fan could go faster but Nintendo chose not to do it.
Lancelot
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As far as I know size doesn't matter for these calculations, they're made on the chip itself. 4N T239 is pretty much peaking at the values you see above, along with 1.5 ghz for the CPU, no matter how big or power hungry you make it. There's a case to be made around increasing cpu clocks, but nobody is able to give a max for those at the moment.
Concernt
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I believe we already know this is the case.
At a 4K target resolution, you're cutting out more of the base power of the machine to give to DLSS, but in docked mode you're giving it much more in raw FLOPS and have more raw FLOPS left over.
Like say, run a game with identical settings apart from resolution across both modes, handheld using 540p upscaled to 1080p, and TV mode using 720p upscaled to 4K, and that suits the 1.7:3.4 ratio give or take.
darthdiablo
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I didn't state the France supplier was NERD. I was just randomly learning about the existence of NERD.
Honestly I think "supplier" term itself doesn't mean much. I feel like "supplier" tends to mean "sender" or "origin", rather than an actual "supplier", as in a location in France was the original sender or origin or whatever, leading to chain of shipments where Japan -> India -> France that is visible in search results
That aside, what could France "supplier" be? Keep in mind this is 3 months before OLED release date. I don't think it's retail stuff (it says "testing kit", but also had OLED model number (XAL))
Edit: my theory that "supplier" doesn't actually means "supplier" but more like "sender" or "origin" seems to be substantial. It's most likely Ubisoft HQ in France. I don't think we can really consider Ubisoft HQ as an actual "supplier".
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D
Deleted member 887
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I should clarify what I meant, since it was completely unclear in retrospect.
DS launched, but Nintendo advertised that it was a "third pillar" to the GameBoy line, but as soon as the DS proved its mettle, the GBA got dropped. On the flip side, 3DS succeeded the DS 18 months before the Wii U launched, giving it time to establish itself before Nintendo left the Wii's third party revenue behind.
Sony and Microsoft have other sources of revenue, two years of losses from the Xbox and Playstation divisions during a console launch window won't kill them (though it would hurt). Two years of losses would gut Nintendo when their only corporate revenue is games related. The 3DS kept the company alive during the Wii U years, and while Nintendo is in an excellent position, I don't think they're so foolish to put all their eggs in the NG basket.
So by "looking to the DS" I mean looking to how the DS was used - how many units of software total they were delivering across two platforms, how they used the DS as an "experimental" step of the GBA, until it was clear it was going to take, how they used the DS as a hedge in the Wii days.
Right now we're are literally seeing games from the handheld world come over (Another Code, Mario vs Donkey Kong, Luigi's Mansion 2), sequels to handheld games (Detective Pikachu 2), and games which have strong connections to the handheld space (2D Mario, Mario RPGs, Princess Peach). And Pokemon will have to be cross-gen for a couple years. Sword/Shield sold more software units in its first quarter than the Switch sold hardware units in its first year. Pokemon games don't have a long tail - they need that big install base.
This is why there will be a cross-gen period - Nintendo needs to replace the handheld sales that kept the company afloat when transitioning consoles in the past. And to bring it back to hardware, this is why Nintendo needs backwards compatibility. Not because of Breath of the Wild but because of Professor Layton - all these late stage 3rd party games that are cheap to make need to stay cheap (one development target) while fattening up the Switch NG's library, leaving no reason for folks to hang on to the old platform.
I remember those early Directs with 3DS games mixed in with Switch games. If Nintendo is going to support Switch into 2025, which they say they're doing, how great is it going to be for NG owners to watch and know that they can play every single game they see, on their one and only hybrid console? How tantalizing will it be for Switch owners to see gorgeous NG games and know that if they upgrade, they're not leaving any of their casual puzzlers or play-on-the-train platformers behind to do it?
LiC
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XAL would be an EDEV or SDEV. The serial numbers for OLED models start with XT.
I don't think Japan is necessarily involved here. One of the sites shows the importer, Ubisoft Entertainment, with a Japanese flag for some reason when you view their profile. But Ubisoft is headquartered in France, the destination is France, and the description says "send back to France." As for the exporter, the other site shows its name as U***D, so I'm guessing it's a Ubisoft subsidiary in India.
D
Deleted member 887
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Maxes are probably 3GHz, since that's the default max from ARM. Technically, an integrator can alter the power curves to push higher, but a quick check of Qualcomm and Samsung SOCs shows that no one pushed those cores past 2.8GHz.
Lancelot
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In the end of the day, portable will always be the weakest link. Games need to be made with it in mind, for docked to act as a Pro model of sorts already... Now, that doesn't stop a given developer from targeting docked since the start and letting handheld cope with absurd resolutions/settings. The Xenoblade games were pretty much targeting docked mode, considering how ridiculously low those games often went during handheld, they're the exception to the rule however.
Dekuman
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This i think is the best argument for Switch 2 BC. Nintendo has no 2nd platform to derive revenues from.
BC gives them this revenue stability without compromising their output, which is what going to a single platform solved for them
They can designate a % of their output to be fully cross-gen for year 1 without worrying about splitting the userbase and knowing everything they make will target the NG and the OG Switch will still get games, then slowly scale back the number of titles that are cross gen over time.
It gives them a larger installed base to target for a number of their games, and it ensures a steady flow of content on both platforms for number of years.
darthdiablo
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Ah, I was going based on seeing 2 separate shipments involving the same SN, with India being the destination in one case, the origin in other, making it seem like India was a waypoint between Japan and France.
It shows 5 units arrived at India, with 2 units being sent to France with "faulty kits, back to France" in description. Presumably, 2 out of 5 units that arrived was found faulty. I think a long time (years?) had passed between arriving at India and being sent to France however.
But since you mentioned Ubisoft and I do find references to Ubisoft, it's probably all Ubisoft.
What confused me initially was that the India name was hidden in the methodology I was using (when I am able to see "nvidia graphics private limited" in other cases). I didn't realize Ubisoft also has a division in India, so that makes more sense now.
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LiC
Member
Ah yeah, it does say it starts with a Japan -> India shipment before being returned India -> France. The other entity in both cases is still Ubisoft Entertainment, though. This is similar to some of the T239 listings where they were coming from Japan but the exporting entity was still just NVIDIA Corporation.Ah, I was going based on seeing 2 separate shipments involving the same SN, with India being the destination in one case, the origin in other, making it seem like India was a waypoint between Japan and France.
It shows 5 units arrived at India, with 2 units being sent to France with "faulty kits, back to France" in description.
But since you mentioned Ubisoft and I do find references to Ubisoft, it's probably all Ubisoft.
What confused me initially was that the India name was hidden in the methodology I was using (when I am able to see "nvidia graphics private limited" in other cases). I didn't realize Ubisoft also has a division in India, so that makes more sense now.
I'm pretty sure the entity in India is "Ubisoft Entertainment India Private Limited," although I can't get the results to show up on the orange site using that exact name, so it may be slightly different.
Here's a guide to Switch serial numbers, btw. For example: XA (NX Erista hybrid) L ("All" region, devkit only) 03 (EDEV) 100094573 (serial).
Lancelot
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To be even more fair, they wouldn't have to designate anything cross gen per see. Despite being this old, the base Switch still got quite a few titles in development that will never take advantage of Switch 2 no matter what they do. Resolutions, framerates... Sure, but their baseline is still Switch 1 and that puts a hard cap on their potential as next gen titles, which is why crossgen becomes the most sensible choice in these cases.
ShadowFox08
Paratroopa
I believe it was also Thraktor who said one against a 4 tflops GPU happening is that the bandwidth of 102 GB/s would not be efficient enough for that GPU speed, unless they somehow have an lpddr5x module and go with full lpddr5x speeds (134 GB/s)
Lancelot
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Yeah, he's right. Diminishing returns will already be on full steam by the time the GPU reaches 4tflops, I have no idea if LPDDR5x could happen at this stage but for a system that's probably lasting until 2031 it'd make sense if it did.
LiC
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While I'm here, I might as well disclaim that I've seen 2 or 3 results for "PCBA T239" that are actually motherboards for air conditioners or refrigerators. One of them just says "MAIN PCBA BOARD T239" but it's shipped by one of the same companies. So yeah. Another example of needing to be careful with search results.
redmutineer75
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AndresRestart
Rattata
I often see people spread misinformation on what I say. Not pointing any fingers but I see a lot of hypocrisy. If people care about the truth they would actually listen to points being made instead of jumping to conclusions.
SoldierDelta
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For as long as the internet is a "free" entity, we will have people jumping to conclusions and not read before saying dumb shit that isn't based on what the subject actually said. It is just the way it is.
Seeing it firsthand sucks, but it's even worse when it goes even further out of control than just a rumour being viewed as a leak. People's livelyhoods get really fucked up sometimes.
pelusilla6
Moblin
So the
There is a bunch of ps5 and switch devkits back and forth then
From Ubisoft-Ubisoft India on 2023-08-23 are Switch devkits right?
There is a bunch of ps5 and switch devkits back and forth then
Yea, Adev (Aula dev) is the oled.
D36
#WOHOYHASAWAKENED
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This whole sleuthing arc is as annoying as it is hilarious.@P4bl0 @Concernt @pelusilla6 @SiG
Not sure if this helps but when I get hit on keywords and see something like N***D, I then go to this url and try the keywords there. It reveals the companies for me, like this as an example. Would that help?
However on this website I'm not getting hits for "new ringfit adventure" for some reason (at least not the one that matches the ones y'all were discussing here anyway)
darthdiablo
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Can concur. I haven't seen those shared here as far as I can tell.
If one simply searches using T239 keyword alone, there's going to be a bunch of results, the majority having nothing to do with Nintendo or nvidia. Context is important.
That said, "T239 FUNCTIONAL TEST PCAs" - and I believe you would agree - is associated to Nvidia Graphics Private Limited office in India. There's also "Carpa X1 Dev Kits", and that single oddball "adaptor pedestal" one. Everything else that says T239 I think we pretty much can be sure isn't associated to Nvidia or Nintendo.
If company remembers or bothers to request the records be removed, yeah.
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qwerp
Moblin
I am sorry but you cant tell me spending 3k (which is the price I was referring to) just to try and find out whether the switch 2 is in mass production is a good investment, when you can simply just wait a month.
darthdiablo
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For the shipments of the SN starting with XAL I shared earlier, yes, it was Ubisoft transferring between their own divisions in Japan, India, and France. I initially thought it was OLED testing kit, but LiC corrected me and say it was EDEV, not OLED model number.
pelusilla6
Moblin
Well it was a fun ride, we got some bits of info but nothing spectacular 
darthdiablo
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Nothing beyond the T239 functional test PCAs, adaptor pedestal, and Carpa X1 dev kits, those all are associated to India Nvidia office.Well it was a fun ride, we got some bits of info but nothing spectacular
Learned quite a bit about shipment business in general in the process, lol.
I'm off to play some more No Man's Sky.
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SoldierDelta
Designated Xenoblade Loremaster
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I'd argue that the collective past two days was kinda nothing overall, maybe some additional places to look for information in the future but nothing revolutionary. Still decent though and we'll take them as it comes.Well it was a fun ride, we got some bits of info but nothing spectacular
Promoted fun discussions if nothing else.
Adulfzen
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good to know the shipment stuff isn't worth looking at this point without other data points corroborating the information.
I'm really just looking forward at this point to more reporting when the actual manufacturing begins since it'll be impossible to keep under wraps once factories start assembling the Switch 2 as you have a lot more moving parts and people involved.
If you for example compare with the Switch, the platform NX was officially talked about in 2015 then reports of manufacturing began around September 2016, afterwards it was officially revealed in October 2016 and it released in March of the following year.
Another point of comparison is the PS5 : it was officially revealed by Sony in April 2019 (confirming they were working on next gen hardware essentially with details like custom hardware and backwards compatibility) it started manufacturing in June 2020 according to BusinessKorea (its physical appearance was also officially revealed the same month) and it was released in November of the same year.
Assuming we follow a similar pattern, we might get a soft reveal this year that next gen hardware is indeed in the works without much details then followed
at some point by manufacturing reports by outlets closely accompanied by an official reveal.
So if NateDrake March rumor does up true, I'm gonna guess it's for an official reveal which would potentially mean manufacturing starting in late 2023/early 2024 for then an august/september release (June release seems a bit short to properly market a brand new generation of hardware alongside providing devkits to more third party devs who weren't among the early adopters).
As always just speculation based on how things panned out in recent history.
I'm really just looking forward at this point to more reporting when the actual manufacturing begins since it'll be impossible to keep under wraps once factories start assembling the Switch 2 as you have a lot more moving parts and people involved.
If you for example compare with the Switch, the platform NX was officially talked about in 2015 then reports of manufacturing began around September 2016, afterwards it was officially revealed in October 2016 and it released in March of the following year.
Another point of comparison is the PS5 : it was officially revealed by Sony in April 2019 (confirming they were working on next gen hardware essentially with details like custom hardware and backwards compatibility) it started manufacturing in June 2020 according to BusinessKorea (its physical appearance was also officially revealed the same month) and it was released in November of the same year.
Assuming we follow a similar pattern, we might get a soft reveal this year that next gen hardware is indeed in the works without much details then followed
at some point by manufacturing reports by outlets closely accompanied by an official reveal.
So if NateDrake March rumor does up true, I'm gonna guess it's for an official reveal which would potentially mean manufacturing starting in late 2023/early 2024 for then an august/september release (June release seems a bit short to properly market a brand new generation of hardware alongside providing devkits to more third party devs who weren't among the early adopters).
As always just speculation based on how things panned out in recent history.
Nobody is spending that kind of money.
And if people want to spend their money on dumb stuff, that's their business.
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