StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[Dakhil]

the tegra x1 was not originally made for Nintendo, so it's not a good example.

But Nintendo was involved in the development of the Tegra X1 very early in some way or another despite the Tegra X1 not being designed specifically for Nintendo.

---

A 4x leap seems extremely modest to project unless mobile hardware development has just completely stalled out, not sure why Digital Foundry are so skeptical of it reaching PS4 level then.

Most leaps are like 6x?

The more advanced a process node is, the more difficult the process of scaling down the size of SRAM (e.g. L1, L2, L3 cache, etc.) becomes due to the laws of physics.

In fact, SRAM scaling has practically stopped with the introduction of TSMC's N3 process node family. And that means cramming more hardware components, whilst also increasing the amount of SRAM, and whilst making the die smaller, is becoming exponentially difficult.

And despite Apple having really good engineers, Apple's not immune to the problems with scaling down SRAM with more advanced process nodes. In fact, Apple actually increased the die size of Apple Silicon for iPhones, iPads, and Macs in order to be able to increase the amount of SRAM (e.g. the Apple A14 Bionic's die size is ~88 mm², the Apple A15 Bionic's die size is ~108 mm², the Apple M1's die size is ~120 mm², the Apple M2's die size is ~155 mm², etc.).

So Nintendo's new hardware's probably going to have one of the biggest performance increases with respect to Nintendo hardware thanks to Drake. And I don't expect future hardware after Nintendo releases hardware equipped with Drake to have as big of a performance increase.

 

[Giancarlo]

Maybe a sequel for Switch 2 and 3DS HD Remaster shadow drop close to its release. I know Lugii’s Mansion 2 is coming to Switch, but maybe 3DS HD Remssters will be reserved for the Switch 2. That console has a big library enough to help Nintendo space out software releases

well the 3D action game remaster that is rumored for Bandai Namco to do on Switch could be a HD remaster of Kid Icarus Uprising

 

[ILikeFeet]

you'll see that a lot of their fans do this dance where the Steam Deck = PS4

this is quite funny given how quick people try to use resolution as ammo in their arguments

 

[Giancarlo]

Not curious, common.

really? i troughs Nintendo atending only the business area of Tokyo Game Show this year would mean, they are giving the final preparation for Switch sucessor launch next year.

 

[invwar]

Google is failing me, when did they end the extended warranty for the Wii U?

They ending Wide Care, its a service like Apple Care. Nintendo just introduced it last year. So them ending it just one year later can mean two things:
Either it was a total failure, because no one subscribed to it, as the Switch is not expensive enough. Or the people who subscribed to it really used it a lot, making it a total loser. So don't interpret too much into it.

 

[invwar]

would that get them significantly higher than the 10M in 3 days they got now? probably not

No, but they would be able to also get the people interested, which don't want to buy the Switch because of the "outdated" graphics. Mario Wonders won't move Early Adopters.

 

[Foltzie]

really? i troughs Nintendo atending only the business area of Tokyo Game Show this year would mean, they are giving the final preparation for Switch sucessor launch next year.

Nintendo normally only attends the business area and others have indicated they they seems to not be invited to the main floor so as to not overshadow other companies.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Let’s assume for a second, this is the specs for Drake in portable and TV mode:
-12GB of RAM, 10.5GB for games
-102/120/136GB/s bandwidth
-8 Cores, 7 for games @ 2GHz
-Portable @ 550MHz (1.689TF)/ TV mode @ 1100MHz (3.379TF)


This is entirely speculative, no one is actually expecting this, it’s simply a hypothetical, I’ll get quoted about how it’s possible I don’t care as that’s not relevant to the point I want to make.

I’ll compare it to the PS5 with the same method as before:

GPU docked? PS5 is ~3x T239.

GPU handheld? Lowest clocks gives you ~6x

GPU cores? 1536 cores vs 2304, so a 1.5x core count there.

SM vs CU count? 12 vs 36, so 3x there.

Memory Bandwidth? I listed 3, so I’ll go with the lowest docked one, ~4.39x the bandwidth


Portable? Probably 68-88GB/s, so ~5-6.5X the bandwidth



CPU? Like half the PS5 in practice is the safest bet I think…?


T239 is closest they’ll get, for a long time.

 

[Aether]

Just to be clear, are you referring to PC here or to mobile SOCs here?

the SOC

Most mobile SOCs are rated for 6-9W even under heavy load.

Yeah sure, generally.

Again, to be clear, are you saying they’ll end up above where I expect? Or that PC ends up falling above what the theoretical expectation is?

Sorry, I just want to be clear.

What im saying is, that nintendo wont decide upon theoretical numbers, but real world performance of samples and then not going for a "most work with that" aproach but "almost all work", so they will probably have a slightly higher headroom for SOCs that are working suboptimaly.
Thats also why there are so many switches that get rather warm and all, while others are keeping way cooler, and the ones that get overly warm are still in that window they deemed acceptable.

 

[Vanillalite]

Let’s assume for a second, this is the specs for Drake in portable and TV mode:
-12GB of RAM, 1.5GB for games
-102/120/136GB/s bandwidth
-8 Cores, 7 for games @ 2GHz
-Portable @ 550MHz (1.689TF)/ TV mode @ 1100MHz (3.379TF)

Need the other 10.5 gigs for the OS so the eShop finally fast.

 

[niconiconick64]

Let’s assume for a second, this is the specs for Drake in portable and TV mode:
-12GB of RAM, 1.5GB for games
-102/120/136GB/s bandwidth
-8 Cores, 7 for games @ 2GHz
-Portable @ 550MHz (1.689TF)/ TV mode @ 1100MHz (3.379TF)


This is entirely speculative, no one is actually expecting this, it’s simply a hypothetical, I’ll get quoted about how it’s possible I don’t care as that’s not relevant to the point I want to make.

I’ll compare it to the PS5 with the same method as before:

GPU docked? PS5 is ~3x T239.

GPU handheld? Lowest clocks gives you ~6x

GPU cores? 1536 cores vs 2304, so a 1.5x core count there.

SM vs CU count? 12 vs 36, so 3x there.

Memory Bandwidth? I listed 3, so I’ll go with the lowest docked one, ~4.39x the bandwidth


Portable? Probably 68-88GB/s, so ~5-6.5X the bandwidth



CPU? Like half the PS5 in practice is the safest bet I think…?


T239 is closest they’ll get, for a long time.

Only 1.5GB of RAM for games??
Also, 100GB/s of memory bandwidth, specially in portable mode seems surreal.

 

[Samuspet]

Why not polish it more with proper 4K textures and attract many to move directly to Switch 2 on release date? Zelda is just a much better console mover as a Mario game, which "could run on my phone".

If they would be really after it, they had rather reduced the price of the Switch by at least 50USD. An OLED for 250Euro would sell like hot cake and they would be easily filling the 30M gap. I doubt it is feasible with the current pricing. Please keep in mind that Sony likely sold around 35M PS2 AFTER 2007. These weren't sold for 300, but 100 at best.

Edit:
Price reduction to $99
Eligible 9.9M sales in 2010/2011
PS2 was basically kept alive by sport games, what does Switch have to extend life?

Super Famicom remakes and 3DS or Gamecube or Wii Remasters is a great way to keep it selling.

First post, hi all. Love the thread and all the info!

 

[Dakhil]

Only 1.5GB of RAM for games??
Also, 100GB/s of memory bandwidth, specially in portable mode seems surreal.

ReddDreadtheLead meant 1.5 GB for the OS.

And the 102/120/136 GB/s of RAM bandwidth is for TV mode. If Nintendo's only using LPDDR5 with Drake, then handheld mode won't have 100+ GB/s of RAM bandwidth available to use.

 

[Smile]

My crystal ball tells me the best we'll get in 2023 is substantial rumors about the NG Switch, a credible leak here and there. It gets hazier when entering 2024 but it does say to expect it that year. My crystal ball is always right btw

 

[MadMechanic]

Super Famicom remakes and 3DS or Gamecube or Wii Remasters is a great way to keep it selling.

First post, hi all. Love the thread and all the info!

Greetings

 

[casualreader]

Report: New Switch hardware coming in 2019

Nintendo’s next version of the Switch could have an updated screen

www.google.com

There was significant knowledge of both devices months and months ahead of announcement and launch. The finer details may have been hidden or incorrect, but ultimately it was widely known when hardware was coming, the expected production, etc.

Danke.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Nintendo normally only attends the business area and others have indicated they they seems to not be invited to the main floor so as to not overshadow other companies.

nintendo has always been allowed on the floor. they never wanted to

 

[TSR3]

When a shareholder mentioned wanting Nintendo to implement countermeasures against reselling when Nintendo eventually releases a next-gen console, Shuntaro Furukawa said that manufacturing and shipping a satisfactory amount of units to satisfy consumer demand is of paramount importance when Nintendo releases a next-gen console. And Nintendo will also consider whether there are any other countermeasures that can be implemented against reselling.

I wonder if Nintendo could use the Nintendo Accounts to limit early sales to account holders as a way of limiting scalping?

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Only 1.5GB of RAM for games??
Also, 100GB/s of memory bandwidth, specially in portable mode seems surreal.

I meant 10.5, I missed a zero

+100GB/s or higher is just docked, not portable. Portable is hard to really say.

Need the other 10.5 gigs for the OS so the eShop finally fast.

It’ll still be a slog to move through

the SOC

Yeah sure, generally.

What im saying is, that nintendo wont decide upon theoretical numbers, but real world performance of samples and then not going for a "most work with that" aproach but "almost all work", so they will probably have a slightly higher headroom for SOCs that are working suboptimaly.
Thats also why there are so many switches that get rather warm and all, while others are keeping way cooler, and the ones that get overly warm are still in that window they deemed acceptable.

So does this mean you agree with me or no

 

[theguy]

I wonder if Nintendo could use the Nintendo Accounts to limit early sales to account holders as a way of limiting scalping?

i really like this idea, but it most definitely is anti-consumer

 

[Cybergatuno]

Why not polish it more with proper 4K textures and attract many to move directly to Switch 2 on release date? Zelda is just a much better console mover as a Mario game, which "could run on my phone".

If they would be really after it, they had rather reduced the price of the Switch by at least 50USD. An OLED for 250Euro would sell like hot cake and they would be easily filling the 30M gap. I doubt it is feasible with the current pricing. Please keep in mind that Sony likely sold around 35M PS2 AFTER 2007. These weren't sold for 300, but 100 at best.

Edit:
Price reduction to $99
Eligible 9.9M sales in 2010/2011
PS2 was basically kept alive by sport games, what does Switch have to extend life?

I believe I read somewhere the PS2 reached those impressive numbers mostly due to its DVD player.
After the PS3 was out, it kept selling like hot cakes, specially in South America and peripheral markets.
After its price cuts, it was cheaper than most DVD players on the market.
People barely bought any games though.

 

[D36]

i really like this idea, but it most definitely is anti-consumer

Won't scalpers just make an account if they don't have one, anyway? Assuming it isn't one system per holder, that is.

 

[NateDrake]

Lol y’all want everything to mean something.

Nintendo of America hasn't tweet on July 4th, must mean there is a Switch 2 reveal happening next week.

 

[Foltzie]

Won't scalpers just make an account if they don't have one, anyway? Assuming it isn't one system per holder, that is.

Yep, it adds some extra work, but they already have bots running multiple email address to get around retail site limitations. What's running the same script one more time against Nintendo.com?

The only real method against scalping is sufficient supply, which Nintendo nailed.

Furthermore, I would play devils advocate and argue that anyone willing to pay more than MSRP for a new console (or really any product with a post sale revenue stream), is actually a customer the company wants first, those consumers are going to be able to spend more on software than someone more price conscious.

If anything I'm surprised that companies don't outright offer some units in an auction format to recognize some of the benefit of excess demand, perhaps give the proceeds above retail to a charity. That could undercut scalpers and be a good PR move.

Edit: Nintendo and others could offer a premium SKU that packs in the Redacted and an extra pro-controller, software, or X the way GameStop does. It's not perfect, but could be implemented in a way that just boxes up the other items in a manner that is relatively efficient.

 

[Goodtwin]

Nintendo of America hasn't tweet on July 4th, must mean there is a Switch 2 reveal happening next week.

When are you and the DF guys going to discuss what you have been hearing? You guys have seen how desperate the community is for info, so if it's fair to criticize less credible sources, isn't it fair for people to demand more transparency for the credible sources/journalist? At some point, regardless if it's you, the DF crew or IGN, we all just want to know what you know, and if it doesn't come to fruition so be it. The Switch Pro never materialized after years and years of speculation.

 

[NateDrake]

When are you and the DF guys going to discuss what you have been hearing? You guys have seen how desperate the community is for info, so if it's fair to criticize less credible sources, isn't it fair for people to demand more transparency for the credible sources/journalist? At some point, regardless if it's you, the DF crew or IGN, we all just want to know what you know, and if it doesn't come to fruition so be it. The Switch Pro never materialized after years and years of speculation.

I don't know what the others know & the info I have isn't enough to share at the moment nor is it anything I have clearance to share. It's strictly been chatter between friends & not for reporting or sharing purposes. As the summer advances and more in-person, industry events unfold, someone will report meaningful content -- be it specs, timing, or whatever.

The most I'll say at the moment is what I've been saying: my informed speculation is late 2024 release.

 

[Aether]

I meant 10.5, I missed a zero

+100GB/s or higher is just docked, not portable. Portable is hard to really say.


It’ll still be a slog to move through




So does this mean you agree with me or no

I agree with you on the part that its not 1:1 the amount of cores (as mentioned prior), but also that i would not expect them to try to get the maximum out of that curve, but take into account real world thermal performance and decide on the clocks on that =D

 

[Smile]

I really don't envy the position of people who publicly are known to have insider connections, because if they hear anything through the grape vine that turns out either not to be true/doesn't manifest because business isn't always predictable, it suddenly becomes their fault if they report on it.

 

[Discostew]

I don't know what the others know & the info I have isn't enough to share at the moment nor is it anything I have clearance to share. It's strictly been chatter between friends & not for reporting or sharing purposes. As the summer advances and more in-person, industry events unfold, someone will report meaningful content -- be it specs, timing, or whatever.

The most I'll say at the moment is what I've been saying: my informed speculation is late 2024 release.

Best Homer impression: "Late 2024? But I want it now!"

 

[Vantell]

When are you and the DF guys going to discuss what you have been hearing? You guys have seen how desperate the community is for info, so if it's fair to criticize less credible sources, isn't it fair for people to demand more transparency for the credible sources/journalist? At some point, regardless if it's you, the DF crew or IGN, we all just want to know what you know, and if it doesn't come to fruition so be it. The Switch Pro never materialized after years and years of speculation.

Just because we hear stuff within the industry, doesnt mean we should share it with everyone.

 

[Cuzizkool]

+100GB/s or higher is just docked, not portable. Portable is hard to really say.

But what could portable be? I don’t recall seeing much discussion on that. What is the theory if it’s LPDDR5? And 5X? Would it make any difference?

 

[P4bl0]

Apparently NX 2 shows as an option on Nintendo Developer Portal

 

[ILikeFeet]

Apparently NX 2 shows as an option on Nintendo Developer Portal

where did you get this from?

 

[P4bl0]

NX was also added to Nintendo Developer Portal around one month before October 2016 Switch reveal

RUMOR: Nintendo’s Developer Portal Updated & Gearing Up For An NX Reveal?

NWPlayer123, who has a history of accurate leaks, has mentioned that Nintendo’s developer portal was updated. To be more specific, the update was for the SDK, short for Software Development Kit…

mynintendonews.com

 

[MuddySeal]

Apparently NX 2 shows as an option on Nintendo Developer Portal

Um, helloooooo????!?@?@!#(@*?48

 

[iag]

 

[MadMechanic]

Apparently NX 2 shows as an option on Nintendo Developer Portal

When was this added?

 

[MuddySeal]

Also hi all, I was never awfully active but I decided to just start lurking a while ago rather than trying to post as I don’t have anything to add even though I’m a huge nerd about this stuff. So uh, carry on ^_^

 

[YugamiSekai]

Apparently NX 2 shows as an option on Nintendo Developer Portal

Really hoping this isn't some inspect element trick.

 

[ziggyrivers]

where did you get this from?

Link, please

 

[P4bl0]

Link, please

developer.nintendo.com you need to be a developer to access to this area

 

[ziggyrivers]

developer.nintendo.com you need to be a developer to access to this area

Oh, boo :/

 

[eye0h]

There's no way this is happening LOOOOOOL

 

[MadMechanic]

developer.nintendo.com you need to be a developer to access to this area

Darn

 

[Giancarlo]

Apparently NX 2 shows as an option on Nintendo Developer Portal

when this was added on Nintendo developer portal? this year or severals years ago?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

developer.nintendo.com you need to be a developer to access to this area

Cool so who sent this to you.

 

[iag]

It's already on Reddit so soon a dev will confirm/deny it.

 

[pelusilla6]

developer.nintendo.com you need to be a developer to access to this area

Are you the source?
I cant find anything related to that

Edit: Damm hahaha, not even 5min and someone have already reposted it on reddit

 

[Chijin_08]

Apparently NX 2 shows as an option on Nintendo Developer Portal

Is this your original screenshot?

 

[Giancarlo]

It's already on Reddit so soon a dev will confirm/deny it.

they are problaby under NDA, even if they are working on a Switch sucessor game, they will have to deny this information, or the Nintendo ninjas will get this developer.