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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

that i dont believe Switch sucessor will be a massive jump/leap in power compared to Switch, it gonna be Game Cube to Wii
I highly doubt that. The data that we've seen implies that Drake will be somewhere between PS4 Pro and Xbox Series S. It'll probably be slightly behind the competition, but still adequate. I'm not very tech savvy, so someone else could probably explain it better, hell I might be off. Regardless, I just don't see why Nintendo or Nvidia would settle on a miniscule leap in power, there's no incentive to do so either, even if we get a crazy gimmick.
 
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Oh boy you fucked up now. Get ready for the "numbers" and "detailed compelling analyses" you goof.
This is what you get in the "numbers" thread

oldpuck warms up his spreadsheet

But honestly, it's an opinion I've heard before, and I'm just curious what the thought process is. The GameCube, the Wii, the Wii U, and the Switch were all very different consoles. That's how Nintendo got away with not having a serious power bump.

I don't know how you expect a Switch 2 that's basically the same power as a Switch 1?
 
I'm genuinely curious as to why these H2 aren't spaced out. Wario Ware and Detective Pikachu could have easily filled in August and September and Mario RPG should have been swapped with Wonder, tbh. Feels like the lineup is unnecessary cluttered.
Maybe they're expecting consumers to purchase these games en masse because of the Mario movie? Selling RPG and Wario Ware as companion titles to Wonder for the Holiday seems like a good strategy. On their own at other points in the year, they'd only do 1 million at most, but if they're being sold during the Holidays after a new mainline game and right off the heels of a successful movie, they may fair much better.
 
that i dont believe Switch sucessor will be a massive jump/leap in power compared to Switch, it gonna be Game Cube to Wii
This is definitely an opinion. Even if you ignore the data we've seen, the idea that Nintendo would release a console 7 years later that improves specs by essentially nothing is very weird. Let me explain a few scenarios.

That's like if they took the Wii, which underperformed compared to the then out 360 and PS3, and then released the Wii U, but instead of being a new console, it's basically a slightly overclocked Wii with a tablet controller and more modern development resources.

Now ask yourself, do you think the Wii U would have done better or worse than it already did considering the situation? I can't see any situation where it wouldn't have tanked even worse than it already did.

Nintendo not only hasn't put out an overclocked Mariko, despite being perfectly able to, but they have many other reasons to increase the power of the hardware to meet their own needs.

Nintendo doesn't have to chase the power levels of the PS5 and Xbox Series, but if they want to continue to get third party support, they need an increase. Even mobile phones now are putting out games that can or soon will surpass what the Switch is capable of.

In addition, you can look at most modern Switch games and see that Nintendo themselves are hitting walls in what they're able to do, and you can't tell me that they don't want to push further considering how ambitious they already are.

Given how production pipelines work it could actually be more expensive to go with hardware that's just marginally more powerful than the Switch, rather than move to repurposing something that's currently in the production pipeline.

If you're just trying to keep your hype down, then by all means keep telling yourself it will be single digit percentile increases. It doesn't actually make any sense at all for Nintendo to do so though.
 
This is what you get in the "numbers" thread

oldpuck warms up his spreadsheet

But honestly, it's an opinion I've heard before, and I'm just curious what the thought process is. The GameCube, the Wii, the Wii U, and the Switch were all very different consoles. That's how Nintendo got away with not having a serious power bump.

I don't know how you expect a Switch 2 that's basically the same power as a Switch 1?
It's not an expectation, it's a fear couched as an expectation. Usually, anyway.
 
This is definitely an opinion. Even if you ignore the data we've seen, the idea that Nintendo would release a console 7 years later that improves specs by essentially nothing is very weird. Let me explain a few scenarios.

That's like if they took the Wii, which underperformed compared to the then out 360 and PS3, and then released the Wii U, but instead of being a new console, it's basically a slightly overclocked Wii with a tablet controller and more modern development resources.

Now ask yourself, do you think the Wii U would have done better or worse than it already did considering the situation? I can't see any situation where it wouldn't have tanked even worse than it already did.

Nintendo not only hasn't put out an overclocked Mariko, despite being perfectly able to, but they have many other reasons to increase the power of the hardware to meet their own needs.

Nintendo doesn't have to chase the power levels of the PS5 and Xbox Series, but if they want to continue to get third party support, they need an increase. Even mobile phones now are putting out games that can or soon will surpass what the Switch is capable of.

In addition, you can look at most modern Switch games and see that Nintendo themselves are hitting walls in what they're able to do, and you can't tell me that they don't want to push further considering how ambitious they already are.

Given how production pipelines work it could actually be more expensive to go with hardware that's just marginally more powerful than the Switch, rather than move to repurposing something that's currently in the production pipeline.

If you're just trying to keep your hype down, then by all means keep telling yourself it will be single digit percentile increases. It doesn't actually make any sense at all for Nintendo to do so though.
i know Nintendo since i was 5 year old, to know they modus operandus, since the Wii they always focused on new and unique ways for us to play they games/consoles, that why i dont expect a signicant jump to Switch to it sucessor
 
Come on now everyone, rule number one is to ignore trolls.
I happy to not agree with @Giancarlo, but I don't think they're a troll, or I would have ignored them already

It's not an expectation, it's a fear couched as an expectation. Usually, anyway.
I remember someone posting that they didn't think Switch 2 would be as powerful as a Series S, but instead more like a One X, completely unaware that the One X is much more beefy than the Series S.

Fear, pessimism, whatever, I just think most people don't understand the basic technical realities. Which is fine! But this is the hardware thread, if someone is polite about it, I'll try and educate them. Not change their mind, but educate.
 
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i know Nintendo since i was 5 year old, to know they modus operandus, since the Wii they always focused on new and unique ways for us to play they games/consoles, that why i dont expect a signicant jump to Switch to it sucessor
Well, om the Switch they focused on trying to sell a full console experience on the go.

If they're going to make the same selling point on Switch 2, it has to be a lot more powerful.
 
Come on now everyone, rule number one is to ignore trolls.
I don't think they're trolling. At least I hope not. Some people might not look at the data as closely as others or they may not even know that there's a ton of relevant articles on the first page. I wouldn't be surprised if most of the regulars (i.e. lurkers) go straight to the latest page and go from there. It's what I did 😅
 
Given how production pipelines work it could actually be more expensive to go with hardware that's just marginally more powerful than the Switch, rather than move to repurposing something that's currently in the production pipeline.
I just want to say I totally agree with this point 110%, and the sheer complexities of managing mass production of electronics seems to be something that often gets forgotten. Nintendo have to work within the cycles of the industry and their suppliers. They are a massively successful company, but they’re still just a fraction of the markets that they buy from.
 
i know Nintendo since i was 5 year old, to know they modus operandus, since the Wii they always focused on new and unique ways for us to play they games/consoles, that why i dont expect a signicant jump to Switch to it sucessor
I think you’re right in the sense that Nintendo have never been successful when trying to compete mostly on performance, but most of their consoles have been a significant upgrade over their predecessors. The exception that stands out is the Wii itself (just 50% more powerful than the GameCube), but WiiU was a significant upgrade beyond the Wii. And the Switch itself wasn’t a massive jump above the WiiU, but that was more of a mid gen course correction, than a next generation successor.
 
I'm genuinely curious as to why these H2 aren't spaced out. Wario Ware and Detective Pikachu could have easily filled in August and September and Mario RPG should have been swapped with Wonder, tbh. Feels like the lineup is unnecessary cluttered.

Do we all agree Mario RPG will struggle to hit 2 millions while Wonder can easily break 10 millions?
If you were Nintendo, which one would you heavily market?

I'm an enthusiast who's been playing Nintendo games for a long time. I may share your preferences, but I understand that my views are not shared by the public at large.

Metroid Prime 4 may very well be a fantastic and beautiful experience, but for a series that has only reached it's first 3 million sold last year Nintendo isn't betting their whole next generation launch on that game.

Starfield is a new IP and yet it's already regarded as a milestone for Xbox, for better or worse.
Metroid has that power and then some. If done right, people will talk about it.
 
Starfield is a new IP and yet it's already regarded as a milestone for Xbox, for better or worse.
Metroid has that power and then some. If done right, people will talk about it.
Metroid is an established IP that has never really heavily moved away from it's usual gameplay loop/formula (with even going 3D didn't change all that much in the grand scheme of things) with a consistent sales figure to go along with it. While this can obviously change, we'll have to wait and see if Metroid Prime 4 heavily deviates from the usual formula like BOTW or Odyssey did to reach higher numbers than any of their predecessors ever did.

Starfield is a new IP yes, but it's from a highly regarded studio that has released games like Skyrim, Fallout 4 which are a lot more popular than the likes of Metroid. Combine that with a 40 minute gameplay deep-dive which people still talk about because of the mechanics and features, and yes you get being a milestone before release as a result.
I became a Metroid fan with Dread, I LOVED Prime Remastered but Metroid just isn't a system seller and won't hold a console launch on it's own.
 
Think of Zelda and Switch. Before BoTW, Zelda was never that big system seller. Look up Zelda games' sales and you'll find out.
We're talking about a series that took 35 years to sell more than 3 million copies with a single game. Meanwhile Zelda was consistently one of the best selling games on a Nintendo system. Absolute night and day comparison. Prime 4 won't come close to selling like Twilight Princess or Ocarina Of Time, let alone BOTW. It's absolutely baseless to think otherwise.
 
Do we all agree Mario RPG will struggle to hit 2 millions while Wonder can easily break 10 millions?
If you were Nintendo, which one would you heavily market?

I'm an enthusiast who's been playing Nintendo games for a long time. I may share your preferences, but I understand that my views are not shared by the public at large.



Starfield is a new IP and yet it's already regarded as a milestone for Xbox, for better or worse.
Metroid has that power and then some. If done right, people will talk about it.
I think Mario RPG can sell slightly better since it's coming off the heels of the movie, but who knows? Wonder will probably break records for the same reason.
 
We're talking about a series that took 35 years to sell more than 3 million copies with a single game. Meanwhile Zelda was consistently one of the best selling games on a Nintendo system. Absolute night and day comparison. Prime 4 won't come close to selling like Twilight Princess or Ocarina Of Time, let alone BOTW. It's absolutely baseless to think otherwise.
Hmm.. You don't think Prime 4 can reach 10mil? I think if done right, modern visuals and mechanics, with a good, fun, online multiplayer mode, and the lure of the Switch, it is very possible. They'll just need to find the right formula to help it blow up on Switch like BoTW did. I'm not saying to sell as many as BoTW, but in terms of sales multiplied compared to the past.
 
Hmm.. You don't think Prime 4 can reach 10mil?
Nope. Metroid is a niche series and that hasn't changed. Prime 4 has been in development as a Switch title for years, they're not gonna totally reimagine the series in order to make it their primary launch title (one that won't have any appeal to Japan, their home market). Prime 4 will likely sell in the range of 3-5 million.

All of this is to argue that Metroid works better as a launch game than Mario, which is completely baseless and without merit. Online discussion about Nintendo would be a lot better if people stop placing gargantuan unrealistic expectations on the Metroid series.
 
I'm gonna use this information hiatus to ask @Thraktor @oldpuck : do you guys think drake's hardware is capable of streaming video to youtube while at the same time playing intensive titles?
This is actually pretty close to how the video capture functionality already works. It's constantly recording video to most likely some sort of rolling buffer. This process is not free, which is (one) reason games can disable it, but it shouldn't be substantially more expensive to upload the data if it doesn't have to be heavily processed beyond what NVENC is already doing. I believe there's already some Switch homebrew that does something to this effect.

A feature more optimized for that purpose might be able to get away with higher quality, but it wouldn't surprise me if that put more pressure on memory bandwidth or something like that.
 
Just because Metroid hasn't hit Mario or Zelda numbers, doesn't mean it can't break out of its old sales range. It doesn't even matter if it's a launch title or not.
 
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I don't think Metroid works better as a launch game than 3D Mario, but I think you'd ideally want both as year 1 Switch 2 games (either cross-gen day 1 or exclusive), and my random shot in the dark is that Metroid is closer to release just because it's an actually announced game.
 
I never said that.
No, but that is the argument the person I made quoted, before you quoted me.

Just because Metroid hasn't hit Mario or Zelda numbers, doesn't mean it can't break out its old sales range. It doesn't even matter if it's a launch title or not.
Hitting 5 million would be breaking out of its old sale range. Here's the list of Metroid best sellers:

1. Metroid Dread (2.9m)
2. Metroid Prime (2.8m)
3. Metroid (2.7m)
4. Metroid II: Return Of Samus (1.72m)
5. Metroid Fusion (1.6m)
6. Super Metroid (1.4m)
7. Metroid Prime 3: Corruption (1.1m)
8. Metroid Prime Remastered (1.09m)
9. Metroid Prime Hunters (1.08m)

The rest don't even hit 1 million. 5 million would be a massive success for Prime 4, especially keeping in mind a lot of Prime 1's sales were bundles.
 
Nope. Metroid is a niche series and that hasn't changed. Prime 4 has been in development as a Switch title for years, they're not gonna totally reimagine the series in order to make it their primary launch title (one that won't have any appeal to Japan, their home market). Prime 4 will likely sell in the range of 3-5 million.

All of this is to argue that Metroid works better as a launch game than Mario, which is completely baseless and without merit. Online discussion about Nintendo would be a lot better if people stop placing gargantuan unrealistic expectations on the Metroid series.

Metroid is not a niche series, it’s a smart FPS that just didn’t had a chance to shine properly on proper hardware.

Why would Nintendo use Dread as showcase for the Switch OLED if it was an obscure underground license ? Doesn’t make sense

Give Metroid Prime God of War graphics and its a potential GOTY.

Give Metroid Prime 4 a Zelda marketing a Switch 2 launch position and its +10m sales
 
Why would Nintendo use Dread as showcase for the Switch OLED if it was an obscure underground license ? Doesn’t make sense
I’d imagine that was because Nintendo planned to launch the console in time for Holiday 2021 and didn’t really have a better option to showcase the system (and COVID doubtlessly changed whatever their original launch plans were anyway). Not to mention that showing off a hardware revision is a very different situation than launching a brand new console. Metroid Prime 4 might be a major hit, but it is far from a guarantee, and a much bigger risk than Breath of the Wild.
 
I’d imagine that was because Nintendo planned to launch the console in time for Holiday 2021 and didn’t really have a better option to showcase the system (and COVID doubtlessly changed whatever their original launch plans were anyway). Not to mention that showing off a hardware revision is a very different situation than launching a brand new console. Metroid Prime 4 might be a major hit, but it is far from a guarantee, and a much bigger risk than Breath of the Wild.

I don’t think it’s a risk when you see on the internet everyone complaining about MP4 not being introduced during directs, MP4 hype is very high and Nintendo might take advantage of this. Wait and see
 
I'm gonna use this information hiatus to ask @Thraktor @oldpuck : do you guys think drake's hardware is capable of streaming video to youtube while at the same time playing intensive titles?
My guess is "maybe?"

I think the raw performance would be there, but I would guess the hard part is actually the network. Wifi and BlueTooth share a lane on Switch, and I imagine they'll do the same on [redacted]. If they have something like the OLED dock, then ethernet connections will share the DisplayPort bus with the video stream to the TV.
 
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Metroid is not a niche series, it’s a smart FPS that just didn’t had a chance to shine properly on proper hardware.

Why would Nintendo use Dread as showcase for the Switch OLED if it was an obscure underground license ? Doesn’t make sense

Give Metroid Prime God of War graphics and its a potential GOTY.

Give Metroid Prime 4 a Zelda marketing a Switch 2 launch position and its +10m sales
This is fanfiction, sorry. Not worth engaging with on a serious level. Hope Prime 4 is good though!
 
I don’t think it’s a risk when you see on the internet everyone complaining about MP4 not being introduced during directs, MP4 hype is very high and Nintendo might take advantage of this. Wait and see
“Everyone on the internet” doesn’t mean much. That’s a small group of people. Those people don’t drive the sales. “Everyone on the internet” was hyping Metroid Prime Remastered shadow drop through the roof and then saw the sales didn’t equate to all the big talk it had on the internet.
 
I don’t think it’s a risk when you see on the internet everyone complaining about MP4 not being introduced during directs, MP4 hype is very high and Nintendo might take advantage of this. Wait and see
Internet hype does not necessarily equate to sales success, and certainly isn’t enough to make Nintnedo (a cautious and Japan focused company) pivot the launch of a successor console on a franchise which does not the biggest sales peak. Why would Nintendo risk a launch on something like that when a 3D Mario is almost relatively certainly close to completion.
 
Internet hype does not necessarily equate to sales success, and certainly isn’t enough to make Nintnedo (a cautious and Japan focused company) pivot the launch of a successor console on a franchise which does not the biggest sales peak. Why would Nintendo risk a launch on something like that when a 3D Mario is almost relatively certainly close to completion.

Mario 3D didn’t launch on next gen first day since Mario 64 I think that’s for a reason, no need to drop all the sauce too quick
 
Mario 3D didn’t launch on next gen first day since Mario 64 I think that’s for a reason, no need to drop all the sauce too quick
I mean, Metroid has never been the launch game on a Nintendo console either. And yeah, 3D Mario hasn’t, but Mario has been a launch title on several Nintendo consoles. And honestly, I just think they didn’t launch 3D Mario the same year since it just didn’t make sense to launch it then. At this point, I don’t think there are better launch games unless they do Mario Kart 9.
 
I mean, Metroid has never been the launch game on a Nintendo console either. And yeah, 3D Mario hasn’t, but Mario has been a launch title on several Nintendo consoles. And honestly, I just think they didn’t launch 3D Mario the same year since it just didn’t make sense to launch it then. At this point, I don’t think there are better launch games unless they do Mario Kart 9.

This is Nintendo, they can surprise us with a 3D Donkey Kong out of nowhere

Anyway realistically for a launch this fall alongside 2D Mario Wonder the only title that would make sense is MP4 but who knows what the future holds
 
This is fanfiction, sorry. Not worth engaging with on a serious level. Hope Prime 4 is good though!
Ehhhhh, I don't know, I think it's worth somewhat entertaining. Yes, having Metroid as a launch title is risky, untested ground. But it could very well surpass sales expectations, at least outside Japan. When you take cross-gen into consideration as well, Metroid could go from a niche fan favorite to something far greater. I would be fine if it hit 5 million, but I wouldn't discount its potential to go even higher. As I've stated earlier, just because it hasn't been done before, it doesn't mean it can't now.
 
This is Nintendo, they can surprise us with a 3D Donkey Kong out of nowhere

Anyway realistically for a launch this fall alongside 2D Mario Wonder the only title that would make sense is MP4 but who knows what the future holds
I mean, if Nintendo was going to launch their brand new console in a few months, I don’t know why they would still be keeping a ludicrous level of secrecy for seemingly no reason. What possible reason would they have to stuff their Q4 2023 schedule full of titles, have an investor meeting where they try to explain why they don’t need to have a console for the foreseeable future, and have no concrete plans for a successor, then weeks later completely 180 and announce and market a new console in by far the shortest cycle for a console ever.
 
well I wonder how many wii sports were sold before the wii was launched.
Pretty big difference between "New thing" and "Thing that has been consistently small for 37 years". Nor did they send Wii Sports out as THE launch title.
Think of Zelda and Switch. Before BoTW, Zelda was never that big system seller. Look up Zelda games' sales and you'll find out.
Still an entirely different level. Before the first time they used Zelda as a launch game, the most successful one was Ocarina of Time, which sold nearly three times as well as the then-biggest Metroid.
 
I mean, if Nintendo was going to launch their brand new console in a few months, I don’t know why they would still be keeping a ludicrous level of secrecy for seemingly no reason. What possible reason would they have to stuff their Q4 2023 schedule full of titles, have an investor meeting where they try to explain why they don’t need to have a console for the foreseeable future, and have no concrete plans for a successor, then weeks later completely 180 and announce and market a new console in by far the shortest cycle for a console ever.

Because it’s business and Switch is still selling steadily even if downward, they have to nail the announcement timing and reassure the Switch 1 customer base that they won’t stop dropping Switch 1 games even if a new console is on the way

They never communicated about Switch Lite or OLED before launch (also there was no leak on none of those models) and denied all allegations of a new model during shareholders meeting so they are not reliable when it comes to that.

Also regarding Q4 being full of titles well we in 2023 and none of those titles are really ambitious for a company like Nintendo, 2D Mario looks cool and it will do huge sales but that’s not a AAA holiday caliber game
 
Metroid is not a niche series, it’s a smart FPS that just didn’t had a chance to shine properly on proper hardware.

Why would Nintendo use Dread as showcase for the Switch OLED if it was an obscure underground license ? Doesn’t make sense

Give Metroid Prime God of War graphics and its a potential GOTY.

Give Metroid Prime 4 a Zelda marketing a Switch 2 launch position and its +10m sales

Metroid Prime Remastered is already gorgeous. It barely broke 1M. God of War graphics won't do a thing.

It absolutely needs a full gameplay re-imagining from top to bottom, while still building on its atmosphere, to become anything more. It needs its Breath-of-the-Wild moment.

If it's just a sequel of more and the same, no matter how good it looks, it's gonna quickly fade into oblivion.
 
Because it’s business and Switch is still selling steadily even if downward, they have to nail the announcement timing and reassure the Switch 1 customer base that they won’t stop dropping Switch 1 games even if a new console is on the way

They never communicated about Switch Lite or OLED before launch (also there was no leak on none of those models) and denied all allegations of a new model during shareholders meeting so they are not reliable when it comes to that.

Also regarding Q4 being full of titles well we in 2023 and none of those titles are really ambitious for a company like Nintendo, 2D Mario looks cool and it will do huge sales but that’s not a AAA holiday caliber game
Buddy the successor to the switch is not coming out this holiday. You need to stop treating a next gen system like the OLED or Lite. Come on now.

Pretty big difference between "New thing" and "Thing that has been consistently small for 37 years". Nor did they send Wii Sports out as THE launch title.
Pretty sure that person was either trolling or acting in bad faith.
 
Metroid Prime Remastered is already gorgeous. It barely broke 1M. God of War graphics won't do a thing.

It absolutely needs a full gameplay re-imagining from top to bottom, while still building on its atmosphere, to become anything more. It needs its Breath-of-the-Wild moment.

If it's just a sequel of more and the same, no matter how good it looks, it's gonna quickly fade into oblivion.

Metroid Prime Remastered looks ok nothing crazy for a remaster, Mario Galaxy port looks better IMO
 
Buddy the successor to the switch is not coming out this holiday. You need to stop treating a next gen system like the OLED or Lite. Come on now.


Pretty sure that person was either trolling or acting in bad faith.

We will see, but sources indicated production was underway since early this year. Also the Pokémon leaker mentioned a Pokémon SV 4K patch for the new Switch Model end of the year and I’m trusting more his word than yours.

Also Jeff Grubb mentioned something like we shouldn’t expect a pro or a Switch 2 but something in between, so probably a New Nintendo Switch is what we should expect

My point is that Nintendo can drop/announce consoles without leaks and nobody will see it coming, they are good at keeping secrets
 
We will see, but sources indicated production was underway since early this year. Also the Pokémon leaker mentioned a Pokémon SV 4K patch for the new Switch Model end of the year and I’m trusting more his word than yours.

My point is that Nintendo can drop/announce consoles without leaks and nobody will see it coming, they are good at keeping secrets
Didn’t the SV DLC leaker also say the second DLC wave was coming in early 2024 while it’s currently set for Winter 2023?

And why would Nintendo keep secrecy this late. Even if we accepted that Nintendo wanted to wait after TOTK, why do this Direct the way they did if Nintendo was going to announce it so soon? There’s secrecy and then there’s undermining your marketing plan by waiting ludicrously late to even begin discussion new console plans.
 
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
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