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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

People would have the choice between two options rather than an outdated one, so no it doesn’t becomes moot
?? It becomes moot because if it's releasing this year it's obviously not something hidden from holiday shoppers. So whether they find out about it in June or October doesn't change the equation for sales made in November or December. It might make for slightly better July-September sales, but those are relatively small potatoes.
I already mentioned this earlier, but there is a very real possibility that Drake launches with Pokemon next Holiday and that's never been done before. It's unprecedented, but it could lead to a bigger launch than what the Switch had.
I don't know, man. Pokémon has been known to skip even systems that have been out a year in favor of the previous generation with the big userbase.
here's the thing: 2024 would be off-cadence for Nintendo
It's not like this two-years thing is something they've been doing time immemorial. They sometimes release new models a year apart. They sometimes release new systems the year after a new model. They sometimes release new models after successors are released.
 
Was REDACTED using T239 in the Lapsu$ hack? If not, I feel it's much more likely that a leaker was just given bad or old info rather than a faked leak
I think so? I forget if the link to that leak is even on the first page.
Yes. But since the information Lapsu$ leaked is illegally obtained, the actual Lapsu$ leak isn't linked.
 
My pet theory (for entertainment purposes only) is that they were originally going to position it as an iterative successor type product. It would literally have been a swoled powered by Drake. Then management changed their mind, and wanted to positioned it as traditional next gen. Change up the industrial design/ design a new controller, ready exclusive launch software/ add a non soc related feature or 2. That's what caused the delay.
Isn't the Drake supposed to be way more powerful than the Switch? That's a lot more than a mid-gen refresh.
 
?? It becomes moot because if it's releasing this year it's obviously not something hidden from holiday shoppers. So whether they find out about it in June or October doesn't change the equation for sales made in November or December. It might make for slightly better July-September sales, but those are relatively small potatoes.

I don't know, man. Pokémon has been known to skip even systems that have been out a year in favor of the previous generation with the big userbase.

It's not like this two-years thing is something they've been doing time immemorial. They sometimes release new models a year apart. They sometimes release new systems the year after a new model. They sometimes release new models after successors are released.
well Pokemon Black e White 2 didnt released on 3DS, despite the console launch a months ago or Pokemon Ultra Sun/Moon
 
?? It becomes moot because if it's releasing this year it's obviously not something hidden from holiday shoppers. So whether they find out about it in June or October doesn't change the equation for sales made in November or December. It might make for slightly better July-September sales, but those are relatively small potatoes.

I don't know, man. Pokémon has been known to skip even systems that have been out a year in favor of the previous generation with the big userbase.

It's not like this two-years thing is something they've been doing time immemorial. They sometimes release new models a year apart. They sometimes release new systems the year after a new model. They sometimes release new models after successors are released.
That's the thing that's been giving me pause. The most we can expect would be cross-gen or Game Freak releasing a patch to give a performance boost.
 
That's the thing that's been giving me pause. The most we can expect would be cross-gen or Game Freak releasing a patch to give a performance boost.
i believe Nintendo will give Switch it final holiday season and then by early 2024, they might start giving hints about the Switch sucessor
 
Didn’t the SV DLC leaker also say the second DLC wave was coming in early 2024 while it’s currently set for Winter 2023?

Just in case, Winter takes place between December-March. So "Winter 2023" can be anywhere between late December 2023 and late March 2024.
 
I strongly think that Nintendo, Nvidia & other partners prank leakers regarding T239. I think they have a new customised SOC for a Switch 2 that we didn't know about

Are Nvidia also pranking their own employees? Because they've spent several years getting T239 software support up and running, which can be found both in Nvidia's open source repos and now the Linux kernel itself.
 
Is it possible that the reason Nintendo rebooted Prime 4's development wasn't because they were unhappy with the mystery developer's output, but because the project was on a path to be a same-y safe Prime game?

Maybe Nintendo saw BotW's praise and success and thought Prime 4 would benefit from a shakeup too and that's why the game was given to Retro again, a developer who is not only familiar with the series, but who also redefined the Metroid experience when they made Prime 1 back then.

I have a feeling that Prime 4 will be different and shakeup the usual formula.
 
I still feel like March 2024 is the best choice, and it worked out great last time. I think launching before the holidays is unnecessary when you're gonna sell out anyway, might as well get that second big boost later in the year. Yes, you might have to slightly disrupt this holiday, but I don't think the people buying Switches this holiday are the ones that would buy new hardware day one anyway so I think they could put out a bundle or two and still sell tons.
 
Just in case, Winter takes place between December-March. So "Winter 2023" can be anywhere between late December 2023 and late March 2024.
Saying Winter 2023 if you mean Early 2024 is needlessly confusing though. Why wouldn't they just say it was early next year.

I think it could end up releasing in 2024, but I don't think that's what they're aiming for right now.
 
Im
Saying Winter 2023 if you mean Early 2024 is needlessly confusing though. Why wouldn't they just say it was early next year.

I think it could end up releasing in 2024, but I don't think that's what they're aiming for right now.
I'm just saying that the official (?) Winter 2023 release and the leaker's early 2024 release can both be true because both fall on the same time period despite the confusing date numbering.
 
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I was talking about Fall 2024.

With an hypothetical 3D Mario (exclusive) + Pokémon RPG (crossgen) + Metroid Prime 4 (crossgen) as their main lineup.
Oh yeah, to me the best scenario is:

1. Releasing Switch 2 in march/april with Metroid Prime 4 (crossgen);
2. Releasing new Pokémon RPG (crossgen) in october;
3. New 3D Mario in novembre/december to bump sales for holiday 2024
 
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Is it possible that the reason Nintendo rebooted Prime 4's development wasn't because they were unhappy with the mystery developer's output, but because the project was on a path to be a same-y safe Prime game?

Maybe Nintendo saw BotW's praise and success and thought Prime 4 would benefit from a shakeup too and that's why the game was given to Retro again, a developer who is not only familiar with the series, but who also redefined the Metroid experience when they made Prime 1 back then.

I have a feeling that Prime 4 will be different and shakeup the usual formula.

The vague rumors were that it was a shitty generic shooter.

Note by "rumors," I mean "a bunch of Nintendo podcasters suddenly started worrying about Prime 4 being a generic shooter right before the game was cancelled and rebooted" which could have just been group chat anxiety or an actual leak.
 
If we're entertaining a September 2024 launch for Drake, when do we expect it to be announced? June would lead it to having a super short turnaround, but it's doable, imo. Though the ideal announcement time, for me, would be March or April. That would be around the time the fiscal year ends and a new one begins. Here's how I'd think it would go:

March/April: First trailer

June/Not E3 season: A Direct that showcases the games and goes more in depth with the system.

September: Release with 3D Mario and some other game that is cross-gen, maybe Prime 4 along some third-party games.
What's this? Preparing for the post #Team2023 future ;)

Seriously tho' I've been mulling about 2024 a bit as well, and my feelings at the moment are in the same ballpark as you - April reveal, June showcase, and September/October launch. While I think 2023 is the last hurrah for Switch (1), 2024 will very much be the year of Switch2 with lots of communication to explain the new features, Nintendo Account sustainability, backwards combability, exclusive games etc. I think the marketing blitz between reveal and release will be under 9 months, I'm thinking 6, and maybe a bit, months at the moment.
 
What's this? Preparing for the post #Team2023 future ;)

Seriously tho' I've been mulling about 2024 a bit as well, and my feelings at the moment are in the same ballpark as you - April reveal, June showcase, and September/October launch. While I think 2023 is the last hurrah for Switch (1), 2024 will very much be the year of Switch2 with lots of communication to explain the new features, Nintendo Account sustainability, backwards combability, exclusive games etc. I think the marketing blitz between reveal and release will be under 9 months, I'm thinking 6, and maybe a bit, months at the moment.
I haven't given up this year just yet. My cutoff point is July 😉
 
Absolutely agree...



...but!

Sony had just sold folks a PS4 Pro 4 years earlier. This reset the clock in a number of ways. It slowed down first party development, as Sony needed to deliver 4k experiences on the platform, and it tapped the users who are usually first to move to the next console.

Sony likely didn't have much of a choice but to continue to support the PS4 for an extended amount of time, simply due to dev resources and need to recoup costs, and Sony had established the idea of a reduced/enhanced experience across console versions. What started as a 4k/HD division because 4k60/4k30/1080p30.

It's impossible to actually tell how well this gambit worked for Sony overall, as demand for game consoles was at a fever pitch by the time the PS5 launched, and millions of ex-gamers and new gamers suddenly couldn't leave their house, and the chip shortage constrained Sony's ability to deliver any system period.

Sony could deliver the same game across 3 consoles that were all with 2.5x of each other, and then use that to drive console sales to their OMGGRAPHIX core market. I find it harder to believe that Nintendo could deliver the same game across 2 consoles that are over 6x performance difference between them, and then use that to drive console sales to their "i don't care how dogshit it looks, i wants pokeman" market

But maybe that is a lack of imagination on my part. :)

I will say, gently, that the same crowd who seem to think that Nintendo can and will launch the console quickly, with a cross-gen library, are the often the same folks who seem to be most optimistic about the device's core performance. I don't care if it's the TARDIS, if the library is substantially cross-gen, then you and David Tennant are going to be playing lightly uprezzed Switch games together.

The PS4 still had legs by the time the PS5 came out and it made sense to run on them. But I feel like the move here is, instead, to simply run out the Switch's legs entirely before moving on. I could be wrong!

The Switch will have an install base of maybe 150M+ by the time the Switch 2 comes out and software is still selling well.
It will take years to reach even 50M on the new hardware.

The Switch 2 will have exclusives that would be impossible or very difficult to run on OG Switch.
But looking at their yearly output, most are AA cash-grabs and easy ports. Those would sell very well on current hardware, while still providing a little incentive to upgrade.

IMO, whether the successor is imminent or not, the current platform will be around for a long time.
Even more so if we consider third-parties and indies.
I wouldn't surprised if Just Dance 2028 still releases on Switch.

Is it possible that the reason Nintendo rebooted Prime 4's development wasn't because they were unhappy with the mystery developer's output, but because the project was on a path to be a same-y safe Prime game?

Maybe Nintendo saw BotW's praise and success and thought Prime 4 would benefit from a shakeup too and that's why the game was given to Retro again, a developer who is not only familiar with the series, but who also redefined the Metroid experience when they made Prime 1 back then.

I have a feeling that Prime 4 will be different and shakeup the usual formula.

I so wish this is true.
 
Is it possible that the reason Nintendo rebooted Prime 4's development wasn't because they were unhappy with the mystery developer's output, but because the project was on a path to be a same-y safe Prime game?

Maybe Nintendo saw BotW's praise and success and thought Prime 4 would benefit from a shakeup too and that's why the game was given to Retro again, a developer who is not only familiar with the series, but who also redefined the Metroid experience when they made Prime 1 back then.

I have a feeling that Prime 4 will be different and shakeup the usual formula.
I won't say that's impossible, but IMO its much more likely that Namcos version of Prime 4 was in development hell and Nintendo didn't like what they saw.
 
Just in case, Winter takes place between December-March. So "Winter 2023" can be anywhere between late December 2023 and late March 2024.
If Nintendo wanted to leave some ambiguity between Late 2023 and Early 2024, they likely would’ve just said “This Winter”. For example, look at the Final Fantasy VII Rebirth announcement trailer where they only said “Next Winter” instead of “Winter 2023”.
 
Is it possible that the reason Nintendo rebooted Prime 4's development wasn't because they were unhappy with the mystery developer's output, but because the project was on a path to be a same-y safe Prime game?

Maybe Nintendo saw BotW's praise and success and thought Prime 4 would benefit from a shakeup too and that's why the game was given to Retro again, a developer who is not only familiar with the series, but who also redefined the Metroid experience when they made Prime 1 back then.

I have a feeling that Prime 4 will be different and shakeup the usual formula.
I doubt it. There is little reason to completely reboot a project including getting a “new” studio if they were unhappy about the game being more or less Prime. There would be little need to include an apology either. Reportedly the game was coming along very slowly as they tried an ad-hoc dev style. If they were worried about it being samey then there is little reason to hand it over to Retro. If Nintendo wanted different then it would have been given to someone else.

On that note Retro wasn’t exactly handed the game. Retro had to prove they could take the reigns of the job. We’ll see how big of a shakeup Prime4 will be. I’m not gonna be shocked if they play it real safe since the Metroid fanbase is very very vocal about their displeasure.
 
What's this? Preparing for the post #Team2023 future ;)

Seriously tho' I've been mulling about 2024 a bit as well, and my feelings at the moment are in the same ballpark as you - April reveal, June showcase, and September/October launch. While I think 2023 is the last hurrah for Switch (1), 2024 will very much be the year of Switch2 with lots of communication to explain the new features, Nintendo Account sustainability, backwards combability, exclusive games etc. I think the marketing blitz between reveal and release will be under 9 months, I'm thinking 6, and maybe a bit, months at the moment.
how can 2023 be the final year of Switch? if that untitled Peach game and the Luigi Mansion Dark Moon remaster is dated for Switch next year?, the rumored 2D/3D Donkey Kong game could also release on Switch next year.
 
how can 2023 be the final year of Switch? if that untitled Peach game and the Luigi Mansion Dark Moon remaster is dated for Switch next year?, the rumored 2D/3D Donkey Kong game could also release on Switch next year.
I think they meant in terms of it being Nintendo's only major system on the market.
 
If Nintendo wanted to leave some ambiguity between Late 2023 and Early 2024, they likely would’ve just said “This Winter”. For example, look at the Final Fantasy VII Rebirth announcement trailer where they only said “Next Winter” instead of “Winter 2023”.

Nintendo is a Japanese company and won’t refer to Holiday as Christmas and Winter is a more common inclusive word to replace Christmas in marketing
 
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but that does not preclude Nintendo from releasing Drake showcasing titles such 3D Mario, MP4, or Wave Race.
Which - and I realize the thread is hard to follow at this point - is what I'm getting at. Nintendo can absolutely sustain a nice cross-gen period, but I find it dubious that they can drive adoption of the platform with AA cross-gen releases.

Super Mario Bros. Wonder as a cross-gen "launch" title wouldn't be bad, but I have trouble believing that [redacted] would sell substantially more than the OLED does now, essentially positioning itself in the OLED's niche of "upgrade/replacement switch for those already in the market." The OLED is doing very well! But would a $400 SKU occupying a very similar market niche do as well? Is the OLED doing "long term health of the hardware" numbers?

When asked about new hardware, Nintendo says the same thing they always say - we're looking for new, surprising experiences. I'm not sure how you market "new, surprising experiences" by anchoring the launch around a cross-gen AA game.

But I also might just be missing the forest for the trees here. When I expected a mid-gen refresh this is exactly the strategy I expected. But I also expected, well, a mid-gen refresh.
 
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how can 2023 be the final year of Switch? if that untitled Peach game and the Luigi Mansion Dark Moon remaster is dated for Switch next year?, the rumored 2D/3D Donkey Kong game could also release on Switch next year.
I didn't say anything about 2023 being the final year of the Switch. I just expect the next model to come out in 2024. But seeing as you asked, I think [REDACTED] will not be cheap, I'm expecting Switch models to be available as budget options for 2-3 years after [REDACTED], and I'm expecting Nintendo to produce games that target the original Switch for most of that period as well. Plus, that install base will still be attractive to some 3rd parties for a long time ...
I wouldn't surprised if Just Dance 2028 still releases on Switch.
Prepare for Disco :p
 
I don't think they're gonna do that at the earnings call, there's no need to. There'll more likely be a trailer before then and that's when they talk about ramping up software development and keeping the ecosystem sound.
It’s a possibility. Investors and shareholders have their eyes on Nintendo releasing a next gen software. I can ser Nintendo following this timeline:
• Investors’ Meeting 2024: This is the year we release a new hardware. Please look forward for when we are ready to reveal the next generation of the Nintendo Switch.

• First week of July: Nintendo tweets they’ll drop the reveal trailer the next day.

• Following day: Nintendo drops a 2-3 minute teaser dated for Holiday 2024.

• Same day: Nintendo says to look forward for further details coming soon.

• Nintendo will attend Gamescom and TGS with the successor, confirming a first half of November 2024 release

Industry chatter is minimal right now. Few things here and there but meaningful reports should come in a few months.
This sounds like September/October reveal for March 2024 release, a la Switch V1
 
i see, that make sense
Ah, I think I see the confusion now - I meant 'last hurrah' in the sense of last big push for the Switch as the main (only) console, not in the sense of saying farewell to it. [REDACTED] will be the premium model of the Switch family of systems
 
It’s a possibility. Investors and shareholders have their eyes on Nintendo releasing a next gen software. I can ser Nintendo following this timeline:
• Investors’ Meeting 2024: This is the year we release a new hardware. Please look forward for when we are ready to reveal the next generation of the Nintendo Switch.

• First week of July: Nintendo tweets they’ll drop the reveal trailer the next day.

• Following day: Nintendo drops a 2-3 minute teaser dated for Holiday 2024.

• Same day: Nintendo says to look forward for further details coming soon.

• Nintendo will attend Gamescom and TGS with the successor, confirming a first half of November 2024 release


This sounds like September/October reveal for March 2024 release, a la Switch V1

This sounds like "dev kits will be sent out in a few months if the system is launching in late 2024"
 
I didn't say anything about 2023 being the final year of the Switch. I just expect the next model to come out in 2024. But seeing as you asked, I think [REDACTED] will not be cheap, I'm expecting Switch models to be available as budget options for 2-3 years after [REDACTED], and I'm expecting Nintendo to produce games that target the original Switch for most of that period as well. Plus, that install base will still be attractive to some 3rd parties for a long time ...

Prepare for Disco :p
$400 for Switch sucessor and it games priced at $70?(if this come true, i better prepare my wallet to pay for the next 3D Mario, Legend of Zelda and so on)
 
It’s a possibility. Investors and shareholders have their eyes on Nintendo releasing a next gen software. I can ser Nintendo following this timeline:
• Investors’ Meeting 2024: This is the year we release a new hardware. Please look forward for when we are ready to reveal the next generation of the Nintendo Switch.

• First week of July: Nintendo tweets they’ll drop the reveal trailer the next day.

• Following day: Nintendo drops a 2-3 minute teaser dated for Holiday 2024.

• Same day: Nintendo says to look forward for further details coming soon.

• Nintendo will attend Gamescom and TGS with the successor, confirming a first half of November 2024 release


This sounds like September/October reveal for March 2024 release, a la Switch V1
I can see this if were launching in November, but that would mean it would launch alongside Pokemon. Launching with Pokemon is kind of an issue if Drake is also being launched with a mainline Mario game, as they could potentially cannibalize each other.
 
Ah, I think I see the confusion now - I meant 'last hurrah' in the sense of last big push for the Switch as the main (only) console, not in the sense of saying farewell to it. [REDACTED] will be the premium model of the Switch family of systems
i see, last big ambitous, wothwile games releasing for Switch this year, well i kinda consider Legend of Zelda Tears of the Kingdom the Switch swan song, at this point Metroid Prime 4 will be a cross-gen game(previosly i trough the game could be a swan song for Switch)
 
April 2024 earnings, Nintendo will first mention it's next system and give is a release date Holiday 2024.

It will basically be the same as NX April 2016 mention (without the early 2015 reveal and Holiday release, instead of March).
Publicly yes, but I’m still guessing that privately some dev kits are going to be shown off at Gamescom in august.
 
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There not being that much noise right now. It’s possible Nintendo is doing a lot of heavy work to prevent a Switch V1 leak like Eurogamer did in July 2016. If the Switch 2 really comes out in March 2024, the lid on the Drake project might start leaking very close to its reveal, which is what I presume Nintendo can do. Their top 2023 softwares were leaked, but not their 2024 ones. It just means they’re doing a good job at trying to keep things under control, when they want to do them.

This sounds like "dev kits will be sent out in a few months if the system is launching in late 2024"
I presume devs already have kits. How have leaks have Not happened, I don’t know. But if we go by Ubisoft, 3rd parties already have dev kits. Otherwise Nintendo wouldn’t have told them to wait for the Successor

$400 for Switch sucessor and it games priced at $70?(if this come true, i better prepare my wallet to pay for the next 3D Mario, Legend of Zelda and so on)
I think Triple A Nintendo games will be $69.99; games like Wonder and RPG will just be 59.99. Games like Mario Kart, that can be put under Games as a Service (GaaS) model, they’ll do 59.99

I can see this if were launching in November, but that would mean it would launch alongside Pokemon. Launching with Pokemon is kind of an issue if Drake is also being launched with a mainline Mario game, as they could potentially cannibalize each other.
Good point
 
It’s a possibility. Investors and shareholders have their eyes on Nintendo releasing a next gen software. I can ser Nintendo following this timeline:
• Investors’ Meeting 2024: This is the year we release a new hardware. Please look forward for when we are ready to reveal the next generation of the Nintendo Switch.

• First week of July: Nintendo tweets they’ll drop the reveal trailer the next day.

• Following day: Nintendo drops a 2-3 minute teaser dated for Holiday 2024.

• Same day: Nintendo says to look forward for further details coming soon.

• Nintendo will attend Gamescom and TGS with the successor, confirming a first half of November 2024 release


This sounds like September/October reveal for March 2024 release, a la Switch V1
problably Nintendo will show the finalized devkit of Switch sucessor at Gamescom 2023, at closed doors, and in the first shareholders/financial report for 2024, Nintendo will mention Switch sucessor and hint, the console will release holiday 2024 and the tradicional february/march Direct, will end with a message, tune in day X at hour Y for the future of Nintendo, when the will show all the relevant information we need/expect for the Switch sucessor.
 
There not being that much noise right now. It’s possible Nintendo is doing a lot of heavy work to prevent a Switch V1 leak like Eurogamer did in July 2016. If the Switch 2 really comes out in March 2024, the lid on the Drake project might start leaking very close to its reveal, which is what I presume Nintendo can do. Their top 2023 softwares were leaked, but not their 2024 ones. It just means they’re doing a good job at trying to keep things under control, when they want to do them.


I presume devs already have kits. How have leaks have Not happened, I don’t know. But if we go by Ubisoft, 3rd parties already have dev kits. Otherwise Nintendo wouldn’t have told them to wait for the Successor


I think Triple A Nintendo games will be $69.99; games like Wonder and RPG will just be 59.99. Games like Mario Kart, that can be put under Games as a Service (GaaS) model, they’ll do 59.99


Good point

Nintendo could have told them in 2018 "hey, you should you wait until the Switch 2 to do a Mario+Rabbids sequel" as... There was obviously going to be a Switch 2 but it probably wouldn't release before Mario+Rabbids 2 finished development.

This does not require having dev kits at all?
 
Is it possible that the reason Nintendo rebooted Prime 4's development wasn't because they were unhappy with the mystery developer's output, but because the project was on a path to be a same-y safe Prime game?

Maybe Nintendo saw BotW's praise and success and thought Prime 4 would benefit from a shakeup too and that's why the game was given to Retro again, a developer who is not only familiar with the series, but who also redefined the Metroid experience when they made Prime 1 back then.

I have a feeling that Prime 4 will be different and shakeup the usual formula.
The vague rumors were that it was a shitty generic shooter.

Note by "rumors," I mean "a bunch of Nintendo podcasters suddenly started worrying about Prime 4 being a generic shooter right before the game was cancelled and rebooted" which could have just been group chat anxiety or an actual leak.
The same rumor/leak post from Era that first predicted Prime Trilogy Remaster turning into just Prime 1 Remaster specifically mentioned that the reason was because Retro kept being called in to help Bandai Namco with development of Prime 4 until eventually Nintendo realized it would be better to just have Retro make Prime 4 themselves.

 
Peach and Luigi's Mansion don't even have names or promotional materials made yet, it seems a lot easier for those to not be leaked.

If this guy does like database work at a retailer, that would pretty easily explain why Peach and LM weren't leaked.
 
I strongly think that Nintendo, Nvidia & other partners prank leakers regarding T239. I think they have a new customised SOC for a Switch 2 that we didn't know about
This just isn't a possibility worth entertaining. The main sources of information about T239 were a data breach that was very damaging to Nvidia and their employees, and contributions to the Linux kernel, where they very much do not appreciate non-serious contributions and have some historical beef with Nvidia.
 
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
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