So, to summarize my current thinking, we have a much clearer picture of the rest of the year after the Direct, but I don't think it's currently complete for two main reasons:
- Now that Nintendo seems to have spun up a dedicated team for paravirtualized Hagi ports (based on the credits for Pikmin 1) and have done this twice in a row, I think the "shadow dropped GCN/Wii title" is probably just going to be a Thing™ for Directs going forward. Not going to predict the specific title, because it's not relevant and February suggests it could just not be related to anything, but I think we'll see another one of those in September.
- The current schedule is a bit weirdly distributed. They're doubling up on both October and November, but August, September, and December are all looking pretty empty (no, Pikmin 1+2 physical version does not count, the games are already released). At minimum, I think there is probably an unannounced September title (separate from the shadow drop and Pokémon SV The Teal Mask (Nintendo broadly does not treat DLC releases as occupying a month, even bigger ones. There's basically always a new game as well)), but possibly more.
So what could account for that second point, then? The simplest explanation is that the September title is another non-Direct EPD4 title, but we're already getting one of those in June, so another in September seems a bit soon. Similarly, a new Pokémon spin-off (probably either PMD 5 or Explorers DX) announced in a Pokémon Presents seems very unlikely with Detective Pikachu just dated for October in the latest Direct. The only other possibility I can think of is something being announced at the mysterious rumored July presentation, which would have to be hardware related at that point, either as a launch title or something that they want to explicitly show the enhanced version of.
It's possible that my analysis is off and that Nintendo is just being weird, but it seems most likely they still have more 2023 titles left to announce.