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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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An aside but one thing I genuinely don't understand is that for well over a decade now, it's been commonly agreed online that Nintendo stopped competing with Sony and MS with the Wii. But suddenly, when regulators come to the same conclusion with the "high-power" vs "low-power" markets, suddenly they're being idiots who don't understand the industry. What gives?
 
Hocot8 said:
Nintendo will never match Wii Sport's success(ala a "tech demo") unless they are coming with a brand new way to play games. And all expectations is that this isn't happening.

Some of you talk about the next system as if Nintendo should treat its launch a bit low-key and I'm so confused. Not to mention the attitude of resting on the laurels of the switch's success. The next system is getting OLED Switch treatment lmao.
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never say never in regard to a console launch, Nintendo could launch Switch sucessor with a game that showcase it main apeal(AR/VR) and it would be more impactful then Wii Sports
 
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I was under the impression that both Dark Moon and Peaches would be early 2024 games, of first half at the latest.

It would make sense to release Dark Moon on Halloween, but announcing a simple port that will struggle to hit 2 millions 16 months ahead of release, when most of them are announced 3-4 months before release or even shadow-dropped, would be off-brand.

I'm expecting something else to hit Halloween.
 
Cybergatuno said:
I was under the impression that both Dark Moon and Peaches would be early 2024 games.

It would make sense to release Dark Moon on Halloween, but announcing a simple port that will struggle to hit 2 millions 16 months ahead of release, when most of them are announced 3-4 months before release or even shadow-dropped, would be off-brand.

I'm expecting something else to hit Halloween.
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Metroid Prime 4 for halloween 2024?
 
Giancarlo said:
Metroid Prime 4 for halloween 2024?
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That would be nice.

I have no idea when the new console will release, but that's when I expect to see Metroid Prime 4, and I don't think it will be shown before that hardware reveal.

ETA:
We're trying to fill 2024 with the few games we know or suspect, but Nintendo publishes a dozen games every year and will publish a dozen games in 2024, we just don't know about them. There will be surprises.
 
Paxie said:
An aside but one thing I genuinely don't understand is that for well over a decade now, it's been commonly agreed online that Nintendo stopped competing with Sony and MS with the Wii. But suddenly, when regulators come to the same conclusion with the "high-power" vs "low-power" markets, suddenly they're being idiots who don't understand the industry. What gives?
Click to expand...

The general market for video games has always had everyone in competition. How companies decide to segment, target and position themselves always varies but the idea they are not in compeition is simply not true. There is a reason during the 360/PS3/Wii days Microsoft released Kinect and Sony released Move.

Nintendo went more blue ocean but that doesn't mean there is no competition. And in this modern age where all these consoles share 70% of the same library, how coud they not be competing?

People who post on game forums don't know anything about business. Don't take what they say seriously. If the regulators are arguing the high end market is between Sony and MS that is a context specifc argument. It's pretty poor imo but the regulators have an angle they want to push. It's not a good reading of the market. The same as saying CoD is pivitol to platform success.
 
P4bl0 said:
Because they can use the console launch to put the light on and push another less famous franchise AAA like Metroid Prime

Mario 3D is an obvious system seller that will come following the launch like usual
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It doesn't work that way. Launching a system with a niche game isn't going to "push" it, it's just going to slow down console sales.

3D Mario is the only realistic option for a system seller right now, the timing isn't favorable to Nintendo's other flagship franchises, except maybe Mario Kart.
 
P4bl0 said:
Because they can use the console launch to put the light on and push another less famous franchise AAA like Metroid Prime

Mario 3D is an obvious system seller that will come following the launch like usual
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As much as I would love a smaller franchise to get first pickings for the new hardware. I do think something easily recognizable would be a better start sales wise.
 
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Gotdatmoneyy said:
The general market for video games has always had everyone in competition. How companies decide to segment, target and position themselves always varies but the idea they are not in compeition is simply not true. There is a reason during the 360/PS3/Wii days Microsoft released Kinect and Sony released Move.

Nintendo went more blue ocean but that doesn't mean there is no competition. And in this modern age where all these consoles share 70% of the same library, how coud they not be competing?

People who post on game forums don't know anything about business. Don't take what they say seriously. If the regulators are arguing the high end market is between Sony and MS that is a context specifc argument. It's pretty poor imo but the regulators have an angle they want to push. It's not a good reading of the market. The same as saying CoD is pivitol to platform success.
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When Tears of the Kingdom released, I'm pretty sure both Sony and Microsoft saw a significant dip in user engagement.
Nintendo is pretty much in the race and fighting for attention, however they position themselves.
 
switch_joy_con_patent_thumb.jpg
 
So, to summarize my current thinking, we have a much clearer picture of the rest of the year after the Direct, but I don't think it's currently complete for two main reasons:
  • Now that Nintendo seems to have spun up a dedicated team for paravirtualized Hagi ports (based on the credits for Pikmin 1) and have done this twice in a row, I think the "shadow dropped GCN/Wii title" is probably just going to be a Thing™ for Directs going forward. Not going to predict the specific title, because it's not relevant and February suggests it could just not be related to anything, but I think we'll see another one of those in September.
  • The current schedule is a bit weirdly distributed. They're doubling up on both October and November, but August, September, and December are all looking pretty empty (no, Pikmin 1+2 physical version does not count, the games are already released). At minimum, I think there is probably an unannounced September title (separate from the shadow drop and Pokémon SV The Teal Mask (Nintendo broadly does not treat DLC releases as occupying a month, even bigger ones. There's basically always a new game as well)), but possibly more.
So what could account for that second point, then? The simplest explanation is that the September title is another non-Direct EPD4 title, but we're already getting one of those in June, so another in September seems a bit soon. Similarly, a new Pokémon spin-off (probably either PMD 5 or Explorers DX) announced in a Pokémon Presents seems very unlikely with Detective Pikachu just dated for October in the latest Direct. The only other possibility I can think of is something being announced at the mysterious rumored July presentation, which would have to be hardware related at that point, either as a launch title or something that they want to explicitly show the enhanced version of.

It's possible that my analysis is off and that Nintendo is just being weird, but it seems most likely they still have more 2023 titles left to announce.
 
Paxie said:
An aside but one thing I genuinely don't understand is that for well over a decade now, it's been commonly agreed online that Nintendo stopped competing with Sony and MS with the Wii. But suddenly, when regulators come to the same conclusion with the "high-power" vs "low-power" markets, suddenly they're being idiots who don't understand the industry. What gives?
Click to expand...
Nintendo doesn't compete on power anymore, but they definitely are still competing with Sony and Microsoft. They don't have to follow the same strategy to still be in competition.
 
P4bl0 said:
Nope, 3D Zelda was not a Switch exclusive, and at this time Nintendo was gambling on the Switch

Two completely different situations
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AFAIK they delayed the Switch launch to March because they wouldn't have games (aka Breath of the Wild) ready for the console's launch. Nintendo was not at all counting on BOTW selling anything on Wii U, they just released it on there because it was announced for Wii U in 2014 and had to keep a promise.

3D Mario has been in development since probably only a little while after Odyssey released, and 6 years is more than enough time for a new one to come out. Nobody is going to buy the Switch 2 if there aren't proper games out for it yet. I say this with the utmost respect, but your argument doesn't make sense. Nintendo or any company for that matter isn't going to launch a console if they have no notable games to launch alongside it.
 
I'm genuinely curious as to why these H2 aren't spaced out. Wario Ware and Detective Pikachu could have easily filled in August and September and Mario RPG should have been swapped with Wonder, tbh. Feels like the lineup is unnecessary cluttered.
 
D36 said:
I'm genuinely curious as to why these H2 aren't spaced out. Wario Ware and Detective Pikachu could have easily filled in August and September and Mario RPG should have been swapped with Wonder, tbh. Feels like the lineup is unnecessary cluttered.
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Could be to maintain sales momentum, could be they’ll unveil new titles in their September Direct to coincide with TGS
 
I feel like Nintendo does care about power again, but it's in handhelds and at a slightly smaller scale. After all, the Switch's entire thing was console-quality games as a handheld, switching back and forth between TV, handheld, or tabletop. And when you go portable, the rules have to change due to battery life and form factor.
 
D36 said:
I'm genuinely curious as to why these H2 aren't spaced out. Wario Ware and Detective Pikachu could have easily filled in August and September and Mario RPG should have been swapped with Wonder, tbh. Feels like the lineup is unnecessary cluttered.
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I'm somewhat expecting another shadow drop in September. As for Mario RPG and Wonder, it is a bit weird that they aren't swapped, but it's overall pretty arbitrary since Wonder will still function as Nintendo's heavy hitter for the holiday.
 
does Nintendo really need games in all months of the years? they need at least two months to give a breath before they release they next big/small release, is not obligatory for Nintendo to release games for january to dezembre non stop, give septembre or dezembre a rest
 
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Smile said:
When the Wii U was in this sort of 'riding it out' period, how much did we even know about the NX at the time?
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NX was announced way before the Switch release, and regarding this Nintendo said that next time they won't give that much of a heads up on the next gen reveal
 
D36 said:
I'm genuinely curious as to why these H2 aren't spaced out. Wario Ware and Detective Pikachu could have easily filled in August and September and Mario RPG should have been swapped with Wonder, tbh. Feels like the lineup is unnecessary cluttered.
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September 2019
 
ziggyrivers said:
Could be to maintain sales momentum, could be they’ll unveil new titles in their September Direct to coincide with TGS
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The September Direct is probably going to be most of the way into the larger gap. Seems a bit late.
Smile said:
When the Wii U was in this sort of 'riding it out' period, how much did we even know about the NX at the time?
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Officially, nothing was known about NX until the October 2016 trailer.

Unofficially, solid rumors began to surface a few months earlier. Though, like I've said before, rumors are not a reliable thing to set your clock off of.
 
Hermii said:
They said that? When?

To be clear I don't think they will. The reasons for announcing NX when they did were unique.
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Nintendo would go on to announce a March 2017 launch window for NX in April 2016, before finally revealing the hybrid console and officially naming it that October.

During Nintendo’s full-year earnings call on Tuesday, the company was asked whether the two-year gap between the announcement and launch of the console was effective from a marketing standpoint, and whether it envisioned a similar timeline for future hardware.

“This announcement coincided with our partnership with DeNA Co., Ltd. for the development of games for smart phones and support for the new Nintendo Account system,” president Shuntaro Furukawa responded (translated by VGC contributor Robert Sephazon).

“At that time, as we were venturing into the mobile business, we felt it was important to reassure our audience that Nintendo’s primary focus remained on our dedicated game console business. This is why the timing of the Nintendo Switch announcement was a unique situation.

“Moving forward, our strategy is to disclose information about our products, including both hardware and software, at the most suitable times to reach our broad customer base.”



www.videogameschronicle.com

Nintendo hints its next console could be announced closer to launch than Switch was | VGC

Players had to wait two years from Switch’s original announcement until its…
www.videogameschronicle.com www.videogameschronicle.com
 
Hermii said:
They said that? When?

To be clear I don't think they will. The reasons for announcing NX when they did were unique.
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It came up during one of the questions at the previous investor briefing. They confirmed what many of us were saying, that NX was a special case that they don't intend to repeat.
 
ziggyrivers said:
When was this published?
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It was published in 2019, and the inventor is one of Nintendo's hardware team, Kunpei Fujita, who worked on the Switch Lite. It's quite likely this patent was one of a series of experiments between the launch of the Switch and the launch of the Switch Lite.

When Nintendo files a patent like this, it's because Nintendo doesn't have a commercialization plan, and wants to establish prior art. If Nintendo didn't patent it, and didn't commercialize it, then they would be unprotected if the employee went elsewhere. If they do plan on commercializing is, they have corporate secrets laws to protect them (as well as contracts). If they don't, they need the patent.

The patent keeps the tech at Nintendo, while also giving the inventor a credit they can use to shop for jobs elsewhere, even if the product they made never saw the light of day. It's a win-win and pretty standard practice.

If you don't see a product that matches the patent quickly, then nothing is coming out, and any future resemblance to the patent isn't the Long Game, it's just Nintendo circling back to similar ideas. The existence of the patent from someone who is almost definitely on the [redacted] team is an almost guarantee we won't see anything like it on the next system
 
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Giancarlo said:
well the launch title for Switch was also a cross-gen game(Breath of the Wild) what the difference here? Breath of the Wild to Switch and Metroid Prime 4 to Switch sucessor?
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The difference is small hardware difference versus massive hardware difference.
sagadego20 said:
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I wonder what he means about card prices in the last 18 months. Doesn't seem to jive with the reality of things like Limited Run releases on 32GB cards launching for $40.
Dakhil said:
No, I was speculating. (I thought my use of "probable" made that clear.)
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I think it would make it clearer in a different part of the sentence. As worded it kind of comes across to me like "This fact is the reason I think it's likely" rather than "I think this event is likely to have happened".
theguy said:
guys the next switch will be called:
nintendo switch wonder
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I can find no remnant of it online, but before Sony had established using numbers I remember a rumor that the second PlayStation would be called PlayStation Wonderful. Don't think it ever got much traction, but the weirdness stuck with me.
Paxie said:
An aside but one thing I genuinely don't understand is that for well over a decade now, it's been commonly agreed online that Nintendo stopped competing with Sony and MS with the Wii. But suddenly, when regulators come to the same conclusion with the "high-power" vs "low-power" markets, suddenly they're being idiots who don't understand the industry. What gives?
Click to expand...
They stopped trying to compete in the hardware space by using the exact same moves. But most of the people who claimed they were no longer in the same market were just people who didn't want to accept Wii sold more than PS3.
 
Giancarlo said:
September 2019
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Oh right; there was Link's Awakening and Dragon Quest 11 (Nintendo published the Switch version). You could probably count Astral Chain, too, since that came out two days before September. October was also kinda cluttered, wasn't it? There was Ring Fit Adventure, with Luigi's Mansion 3 coming out on Halloween.
 
Nintendo released Switch 1 with Zelda BOTW to show how its new HW despite it’s portable form factor can run without any issues an open world game like Zelda.

Open world games are nowdays very good technical showcase of HW capabilities so I think a new 3D Mario with open world gameplay (with a very dense level design structure, PS4+ tier + 60 fps + 4k) really makes sense as launch title of next HW.

Regarding Prime 4, I think its pausible to think its a FY2024/25 title. Can it be early next FY like April/May (covering Zelda TOTK spot) or more later (Oct-Dec) and have its unique SKU of Switch 2 (thus being a cross-gen game) with various HW improvements (4k res, RT, etc). Although I think next Prime will have more open areas rather than 1-3 trilogy, it will not be 100% open world. Therefore, I think it can be a good launch title but not necessary a killer app.

In addition, a new MK is surely coming, probably by late march 2025 (ending next FY) or by april 2025 (beginning its next next FY)
 
P4bl0 said:
Nintendo would go on to announce a March 2017 launch window for NX in April 2016, before finally revealing the hybrid console and officially naming it that October.
[…]
www.videogameschronicle.com

Nintendo hints its next console could be announced closer to launch than Switch was | VGC

Players had to wait two years from Switch’s original announcement until its…
www.videogameschronicle.com www.videogameschronicle.com
Click to expand...
I noticed that you referenced VGC a few times. While I appreciate the citations (most posts didn’t bother; I’m often guilty of that too), VGC is not a trustworthy source. Take this article for example, VGC gladly:
  • used their own translations (okay this time, but riddled with inaccuracies in the past) instead of the official version
  • stated without any evidence that Nintendo hinted at a closer announcement for the next-gen, in the lede no less
  • amplified their groundless reporting that Nintendo declared no new hardware before April 2024
    • VGC originally wrote that Nintendo “warns no new hardware this year” (you can check the Internet Archive)
    • Only after getting caught with their pants down, they quietly changed “warns” to “suggests” (which is still inaccurate but they’d never retract it; why miss out on all the clicks, views, and ad revenues?)
Whenever possible, I personally would avoid VGC and cite the primary source.

Edited for clarity
 
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JoshuaJSlone said:
The difference is small hardware difference versus massive hardware difference.

I wonder what he means about card prices in the last 18 months. Doesn't seem to jive with the reality of things like Limited Run releases on 32GB cards launching for $40.

I think it would make it clearer in a different part of the sentence. As worded it kind of comes across to me like "This fact is the reason I think it's likely" rather than "I think this event is likely to have happened".

I can find no remnant of it online, but before Sony had established using numbers I remember a rumor that the second PlayStation would be called PlayStation Wonderful. Don't think it ever got much traction, but the weirdness stuck with me.

They stopped trying to compete in the hardware space by using the exact same moves. But most of the people who claimed they were no longer in the same market were just people who didn't want to accept Wii sold more than PS3.
Click to expand...
i higly doubt Switch sucessor will be such a massive jump to Switch to it sucessor, i expect a smal to moderly jump in it sucessor, a 000000000000000, 00000, 4% or a 3% increase compared to Switch, all of you are expecting a 50/100% increase compared to Switch, i will glad bite my togue if Switch sucessor prove to be vastly superior to Switch(which i think is very unlikely to happen).
 
Pokemaniac said:
So, to summarize my current thinking, we have a much clearer picture of the rest of the year after the Direct, but I don't think it's currently complete for two main reasons:
  • Now that Nintendo seems to have spun up a dedicated team for paravirtualized Hagi ports (based on the credits for Pikmin 1) and have done this twice in a row, I think the "shadow dropped GCN/Wii title" is probably just going to be a Thing™ for Directs going forward. Not going to predict the specific title, because it's not relevant and February suggests it could just not be related to anything, but I think we'll see another one of those in September.
  • The current schedule is a bit weirdly distributed. They're doubling up on both October and November, but August, September, and December are all looking pretty empty (no, Pikmin 1+2 physical version does not count, the games are already released). At minimum, I think there is probably an unannounced September title (separate from the shadow drop and Pokémon SV The Teal Mask (Nintendo broadly does not treat DLC releases as occupying a month, even bigger ones. There's basically always a new game as well)), but possibly more.
So what could account for that second point, then? The simplest explanation is that the September title is another non-Direct EPD4 title, but we're already getting one of those in June, so another in September seems a bit soon. Similarly, a new Pokémon spin-off (probably either PMD 5 or Explorers DX) announced in a Pokémon Presents seems very unlikely with Detective Pikachu just dated for October in the latest Direct. The only other possibility I can think of is something being announced at the mysterious rumored July presentation, which would have to be hardware related at that point, either as a launch title or something that they want to explicitly show the enhanced version of.

It's possible that my analysis is off and that Nintendo is just being weird, but it seems most likely they still have more 2023 titles left to announce.
Click to expand...
I think similarly ... but ... I thought that way before and they totally coasted on less before... so maybe they'll just coast on mario and DLC?
I would like to think that they wouldn't leave December blank though....
 
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SirShorse said:
Metroid Prime 4 may very well be a fantastic and beautiful experience, but for a series that has only reached it's first 3 million sold last year Nintendo isn't betting their whole next generation launch on that game.
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well I wonder how many wii sports were sold before the wii was launched.
 
Giancarlo said:
i higly doubt Switch sucessor will be such a massive jump to Switch to it sucessor, i expect a smal to moderly jump in it sucessor, a 000000000000000, 00000, 4% or a 3% increase compared to Switch, all of you are expecting a 50/100% increase compared to Switch, i will glad bite my togue if Switch sucessor prove to be vastly superior to Switch(which i think is very unlikely to happen).
Click to expand...
What are you talking about? Sorry if its obvious.
 
MP! said:
I think similarly ... but ... I thought that way before and they totally coasted on less before... so maybe they'll just coast on mario and DLC?
Click to expand...
They have coasted on less - much less. In terms of quantity of titles, this isn't bad. 12 total games this year, if you count all Pikmin separately. It was 13 last year, and that included 2 Squeenix games that Nintendo published in the West, and Fitness Boxing

But it is kind of a bonkers arrangement. Why stick Wario in November with Super Mario RPG, and leave a gap in August/September. WarioWare: Get It Together! stood alone in September in 2021, and sold over a million copies. Kirby's Dream Buffet was a surprise August solo title last year.

Naively, it just seems weird stick WarioWare within weeks of the Holiday titles on either side, when it could comfortably occupy the empty spot on the calendar, and give the other two titles more room to breath. Maybe it's not done, maybe they feel like they need a buffer title between Marios (despite the narrow gap in time), or maybe they feel like a party title should be in the holiday mix.

But it really feels like they're clearing a slot, which happens to sit right around Direct time
 
Giancarlo said:
that i dont believe Switch sucessor will be a massive jump/leap in power compared to Switch, it gonna be Game Cube to Wii
Click to expand...
Why do you believe that? Not trying to be hostile, just asking honestly, why do you believe that?
 
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oldpuck said:
They have coasted on less - much less. In terms of quantity of titles, this isn't bad. 12 total games this year, if you count all Pikmin separately. It was 13 last year, and that included 2 Squeenix games that Nintendo published in the West, and Fitness Boxing

But it is kind of a bonkers arrangement. Why stick Wario in November with Super Mario RPG, and leave a gap in August/September. WarioWare: Get It Together! stood alone in September in 2021, and sold over a million copies. Kirby's Dream Buffet was a surprise August solo title last year.

Naively, it just seems weird stick WarioWare within weeks of the Holiday titles on either side, when it could comfortably occupy the empty spot on the calendar, and give the other two titles more room to breath. Maybe it's not done, maybe they feel like they need a buffer title between Marios (despite the narrow gap in time), or maybe they feel like a party title should be in the holiday mix.

But it really feels like they're clearing a slot, which happens to sit right around Direct time
Click to expand...
It's especially weird because both their usual non-Direct schedule fillers (that I can think of, at least) seem to have already blown their load on either side of that gap.
 
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