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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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boodream said:
Indeed, it must be assumed that there is a significant improvement between the different versions of the game that it is worth it. But I think that even if the upgrade was limited to DLSS 4K/60 fps, it could have a strong favorable impact on the perception of future hardware. That's the great hope we all have with DLSS in general: doesn't require huge efforts to achieve meaningful improvements.
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I will not speculate about launch timing of REDACTED. But I will say that I've never seen a reason to bundle a long-delayed, cross-gen game with the launch of new hardware. Especially a game whose only selling point on new hardware would be "improved visuals" and the marketing campaign is built around not showing you anything. I see where you're coming from, but I don't buy it.

It would be different if Tears of the Kingdom hadn't been clearly shooting for a 2020-2021 launch date in the first place. It would be different if it were any game other than Zelda, which Nintendo will delay over and over again to get it "right." It would be different if Nintendo weren't about to break the record for the longest gap between Super Mario games, and not a peep.
 
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HankyPanky said:
no reason why there can't be two new Mario titles this year. one is 2d & cross-gen, no graphical enhancements aside from a resolution bump. the other is obviously the 3D Switch Drake 5nm launch title. it also seems likely they will try and sell everyone BOTW/TOTK twice when the inevitable remasters arrive. will be interesting to see how they handle patches/upgrades for existing games. if the engine gets a big enough overhaul I can imagine selling you the game twice would be their #1 option.
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I am extremely certain that two Mario platformers are not releasing this year as they would have to release within 3 months of each other.
 
Unlike Zelda BotW and Zelda TP, TotK does not need new hardware to give it a chance at success. Those games were destined for failure/limited sales unless they were given a chance on the following consoles. GameCube was dead by 2005 and Wii U was dead by.......2013? 😆. Seriously though, BotW would have never had it's shot at success on a console with 13 million units sold. TotK has a user base of 120+ million to sell to.
 
Goodtwin said:
Unlike Zelda BotW and Zelda TP, TotK does not need new hardware to give it a chance at success. Those games were destined for failure/limited sales unless they were given a chance on the following consoles. GameCube was dead by 2005 and Wii U was dead by.......2013? 😆. Seriously though, BotW would have never had it's shot at success on a console with 13 million units sold. TotK has a user base of 120+ million to sell to.
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Funny fact : In an interview, Nintendo said BOTW needed 2M copies sold to be profitable.
BOTW sold 1.7M on the WII U.
So despite the Wii U being the Wii U, the sales on that console were, on their own, almost enough to break even.

Edit : the Funny fact maybe be funny but turns out it's not a fact. See Skittzo's post below.
 
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So Intel released a video today detailing XeSS 1.1.

(The PDF of the slides used in the video are available here.)

I have to wonder how DLSS 2.x on Drake's GPU compares to how XeSS 1.1 (via DP4a) performs on Intel® Core™ i7-1370P's GPU since the performance of XeSS 1.1 (via DP4a) seems rather rough to say the least.
CKJvVbD.png
 
I believe TOTK was originally going to launch late 2021 with a Switch Pro. But then COVID happened, OLED was salvaged from the “pro” and focus shifted to Switch 2.

BOTW was done by late 2016, but got pushed to better optimize for Switch launch. Late 2021 would have been 5 years, so plenty of time for a BOTW sequel.
 
HankyPanky said:
no reason why there can't be two new Mario titles this year. one is 2d & cross-gen, no graphical enhancements aside from a resolution bump. the other is obviously the 3D Switch Drake 5nm launch title. it also seems likely they will try and sell everyone BOTW/TOTK twice when the inevitable remasters arrive. will be interesting to see how they handle patches/upgrades for existing games. if the engine gets a big enough overhaul I can imagine selling you the game twice would be their #1 option.
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After the last few years, I’m kinda happy if we get one Mario platformer per decade and you think there will be two this year ☠️

(I like your optimism though)
 
Paul_Subsonic said:
Funny fact : In an interview, Nintendo said BOTW needed 2M copies sold to be profitable.
BOTW sold 1.7M on the WII U.
So despite the Wii U being the Wii U, the sales on that console were, on their own, almost enough to break even.
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That is false, that quote was mistranslated and taken out of context. What they meant was that they operate in general as if their games need 2M sales to break even. That means their floor goal for all of their games is that number, some are bound to have higher budgets than that.
 
mariodk18 said:
I believe TOTK was originally going to launch late 2021 with a Switch Pro. But then COVID happened, OLED was salvaged from the “pro” and focus shifted to Switch 2.

BOTW was done by late 2016, but got pushed to better optimize for Switch launch. Late 2021 would have been 5 years, so plenty of time for a BOTW sequel.
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Do we know whether TotK entered pre-production as soon as BotW was finished? Keep in mind the development team went on to work on DLC for that game for some extra months.

It would've been more like ~4 years, I think, which would've probably been more than fine for a sequel reusing engine and many assets, had it not been for COVID.
 
chocolate_supra said:
So... 2023?? 👀
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He said it could be 2023. The chip is done, Nintendo has all known components ready. They also only have 1 game officially announced for after July, and have yet to actually show it. Metroid Prime 4.

Everything first party they show this summer, will be new announcements and that graphically intensive game. It's set up for a big graphically impressive reveal for games coming at the end of this year alongside new hardware. The gut feeling people have for early next year, is just that. We don't know ultimately when they will release it, but it shouldn't be over 2 years after T239 has been produced.
 
Z0m3le said:
He said it could be 2023. The chip is done, Nintendo has all known components ready. They also only have 1 game officially announced for after July, and have yet to actually show it. Metroid Prime 4.

Everything first party they show this summer, will be new announcements and that graphically intensive game. It's set up for a big graphically impressive reveal for games coming at the end of this year alongside new hardware. The gut feeling people have for early next year, is just that. We don't know ultimately when they will release it, but it shouldn't be over 2 years after T239 has been produced.
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RBhK6EB.gif
 
Arynio said:
Do we know whether TotK entered pre-production as soon as BotW was finished? Keep in mind the development team went on to work on DLC for that game for some extra months.

It would've been more like ~4 years, I think, which would've probably been more than fine for a sequel reusing engine and many assets, had it not been for COVID.
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I think it makes sense. Reveal it about two years before release. 2017 had BOTW, 18 had Warriors DX, 19 had LA remake, 20 had Hyrule Warriors, and 2021 would have followed up the prequel with a sequel.

It was also really weird how there were no plans for the Zelda 35th anniversary beyond the G&W and…SS HD, which already was the 25th anniversary game. It had a gold Wii remote at launch. A similar concept for TOTK being the 35th anniversary game would’ve made sense.

Hard to say ultimately. Only thing I’m sure of is that COVID had a big impact on both their hardware and software releases.
 
Dakhil said:
So Intel released a video today detailing XeSS 1.1.

(The PDF of the slides used in the video are available here.)

I have to wonder how DLSS 2.x on Drake's GPU compares to how XeSS 1.1 (via DP4a) performs on Intel® Core™ i7-1370P's GPU since the performance of XeSS 1.1 (via DP4a) seems rather rough to say the least.
CKJvVbD.png
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4ms is pretty fuckin bad
 
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Arynio said:
Do we know whether TotK entered pre-production as soon as BotW was finished? Keep in mind the development team went on to work on DLC for that game for some extra months.

It would've been more like ~4 years, I think, which would've probably been more than fine for a sequel reusing engine and many assets, had it not been for COVID.
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We have a pretty good idea that it did. Aonuma wrote in the Making A Champion book that was published in 2018, that work on the next Zelda (TotK) had already begun.
 
Bosintang said:
Considering how secretive and careful Nintendo is concerning their new hardware (and about everything honestly), I really don't believe that they would let a random third party game showing the first Drake-powered footage.
I'm voting PS5 footage or PC.
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It's Drake footage
ReddDreadtheLead said:
Devs beg to differ: Ideal would be 16GB :p.


For us? 12GB is just a nice middle ground
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I wonder if devs would go 24GB or 32 GB for pro versions of PS5 and series x..
 
ShadowFox08 said:
It's Drake footage

I wonder if devs would go 24GB or 32 GB for pro versions of PS5 and series x..
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There hasn't been a single game that has come close to utilizing the power of the PS5 or Xbox Series X, I doubt any dev will care at all what the specs are for the Pro versions. They won't do anything interesting with the extra power.

It was super funny how God of War Ragnarok won "best technology" at GDC despite barely even trying to utilize the PS5 and mostly just being 4K/40 upport of a PS4 game.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
There hasn't been a single game that has come close to utilizing the power of the PS5 or Xbox Series X, I doubt any dev will care at all what the specs are for the Pro versions. They won't do anything interesting with the extra power.
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I'd argue Fortnite and Metro Exodus EE has. but those are still early games. Avatar is looking to really stress consoles
 
Technology is stagnating. Especially gaming and graphics. Ultimately node shrinks are a limitation of physics, not market forces. This will however benefit Drake hugely, as it only needs "good enough" power to stay competitive for many, many years.
 
Concernt said:
Technology is stagnating. Especially gaming and graphics. Ultimately node shrinks are a limitation of physics, not market forces. This will however benefit Drake hugely, as it only needs "good enough" power to stay competitive for many, many years.
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Technology is stagnating because the companies want it
 
Sorry for the dumb question, and this is only for my own reasons, mainly to have the info available for my friends who don't understand that it would be impossible to have a portable PS5 without a small nuclear reactor.

How much time would the current PS5 last with the exact same Switch battery?

All hypothetical, of course.
 
FernandoRocker said:
Sorry for the dumb question, and this is only for my own reasons, mainly to have the info available for my friends who don't understand that it would be impossible to have a portable PS5 without a small nuclear reactor.

How much time would the current PS5 last with the exact same Switch battery?

All hypothetical, of course.
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It draws 20-25x the power, so assuming the battery were capable of delivering it, maybe five to ten minutes?
 
LuckyLuke said:
It is true!

However, a March 2024 release would make sense. There are Pokémon DLCs and I don't think they will release any more big games during 2023.
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Pokemon DLC specifically said Winter, so probably not far into March if so, likely Feb or even Jan (Pokemon Legends launched in Jan for instance).
 
FernandoRocker said:
Sorry for the dumb question, and this is only for my own reasons, mainly to have the info available for my friends who don't understand that it would be impossible to have a portable PS5 without a small nuclear reactor.

How much time would the current PS5 last with the exact same Switch battery?

All hypothetical, of course.
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kvetcha said:
It draws 20-25x the power, so assuming the battery were capable of delivering it, maybe five to ten minutes?
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Yeah, that sounds about right.

Just to explain to your friends, @FernandoRocker, think of electricity as water. It's not just about how big the tank is, but how much pressure it's under. PS5 has a power rating of 350Wh, but I've seen measurements suggesting something closer to 200Wh. Regardless, the Switch battery is 16Wh. Basically a big enough water in the tank to drive the PS5 for a couple minutes.

Except it wouldn't turn on, because PS5 needs 110V, and Switch delivers 3.7V. That's the pressure. PS5 is like a giant water wheel driven by a river, and the Switch battery is like a garden hose. It doesn't matter that in theory the garden hose can run infinitely, just like the river - it ain't ever gonna generate enough pressure to move the wheel.

None of that matters of course, because the "currrent" PS5 is over 8 fucking pounds and if someone calls that a portable game system, they're welcome to come to my house and hold my entire desktop for me while I lounge outside on my porch and leisurely check my emails.
 
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The Switch 2 will badly suffer with regards to multiplatform ports when the PS6 comes out and games are built around raytracing with few baked shadows. I would expect custom hardware for generating rays, for denoising, and for generating BVH structures and a massive push to have everything built around raytracing.

But I don't really expect the Switch 2 to receive much multiplatform support in general outside of the indie space regardless.

Whether the Switch 3 can do full path tracing is the much bigger long-term concern for Nintendo tech-wise and it's not really possible to project mobile 2030-2032 hardware.
 
ILikeFeet said:



Spider-man used ML muscle/cloth deformation, so tensor cores definitely aren't needed. still unknown how much speed up tensor cores would even provide here
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The skin+delts action is Uncanny Valley as hell here.

Didn't SpiderMan use ML hardware to execute that action? Or am I confused and only Series X|S has ML acceleration?
 
oldpuck said:
The skin+delts action is Uncanny Valley as hell here.

Didn't SpiderMan use ML hardware to execute that action? Or am I confused and only Series X|S has ML acceleration?
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Spider-man did use ML for deformation, but neither ps5 nor series have separate hardware for ML acceleration. Their gpus just support ML formats
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
The Switch 2 will badly suffer with regards to multiplatform ports when the PS6 comes out and games are built around raytracing with few baked shadows. I would expect custom hardware for generating rays, for denoising, and for generating BVH structures and a massive push to have everything built around raytracing.

But I don't really expect the Switch 2 to receive much multiplatform support in general outside of the indie space regardless.

Whether the Switch 3 can do full path tracing is the much bigger long-term concern for Nintendo tech-wise and it's not really possible to project mobile 2030-2032 hardware.
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Edit: I completely disagree with your notions.

First, the hardware in most modern Nvidia GPUs have tensor cores and dedicated RT cores, which should be more capable than what PS5 could currently do in terms of ray-tracing capability.

Second, ray-tracing implementation is key, and most games have so far implemented it for prettifying game environments, but that doesn't mean it will spell doom for multiplatform support, as shown by...the Switch itself! (It's not so much specs but sales...and moneyhatting, if anything's to go by.)

Third, I don't know why you're even bringing up a successor to the successor, as if you're insinuating Nintendo is somehow "dead" this generation. And if you are indeed insinuating that, I suggest you consult with the rules of the OP.
 
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oldpuck said:
I will note that halfway between 430 and 522 is 476 - and that the higher docked mode profile that Breath of the Wild uses is 460MHz. 2.25x that is 1071MHz. I would call that the high end of my usual pessimistic estimates and the low end of the optimistic ones, which sounds about right.

And yeah, you don't have to live in peak efficiency in docked mode in the same way. Heat still matters, but you can afford to be less efficient. The point that @Thraktor (and others) have been hitting since even before the leak, is why would you go with so many SMs? And the answer is obviously, more performance, but they could also do that with higher clocks. In the case of a mobile device, you add more silicon because it is cheaper, power wise, than pushing clocks.

By knowing that the "maximally efficient clock" is well past that 300MHz range helps us dial in both where the clock will land but also, the node. 12SMs always felt like a lot, but if peak efficiency was closer to 300MHz, then maybe it really makes sense to go with that many on 8nm. But since it's closer to 500MHz, it really feels like Nintendo is on a different node. Not just "better", but different, a place where 12SMs isn't just possible, but where 12SMs is the maximally power efficient path to their perf goals.
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I hope we can refine Thraktor's method to get these results for a wider range of GPU clocks and SM counts. That way, we could maybe have the full range of GPU options Nintendo had for this gen.
ertaboy356b said:


So no chance to go 8nm? Looks like the best scenario.
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Connor is no reliable informer. We should stop posting his tweets.
 
Kenka said:
I hope we can refine Thraktor's method to get these results for a wider range of GPU clocks and SM counts. That way, we could maybe have the full range of GPU options Nintendo had for this gen.

Connor is no reliable informer. We should stop posting his tweets.
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Regardless, what are the chances Nintendo/Nvidia is still able to use 8nm for a then/soon to be released new hardware?
 
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ertaboy356b said:


So no chance to go 8nm? Looks like the best scenario.
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This is incomprehensible nonsense. But never even mind the process node stuff. It should tell you all you need to know about credibility that this account went from being a sprawling Samsung phone rumor mill, to having knowledge about Nvidia SoCs, to someone who has the temerity to claim they have sources at Nintendo leaking them specific hardware information.
 
LiC said:
This is incomprehensible nonsense. But never even mind the process node stuff. It should tell you all you need to know about credibility that this account went from being a sprawling Samsung phone rumor mill, to having knowledge about Nvidia SoCs, to someone who has the temerity to claim they have sources at Nintendo leaking them specific hardware information.
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He knows nothing….
 
Kenka said:
I hope we can refine Thraktor's method to get these results for a wider range of GPU clocks and SM counts. That way, we could maybe have the full range of GPU options Nintendo had for this gen.

Connor is no reliable informer. We should stop posting his tweets.
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It creates conversation I think it's okay
 
I personally don't think launching early in the year makes sense. It made sense for Switch for two reasons: firstly, Nintendo said they wanted to get their software lineup in order before launching. Indeed, that Switch launch year was phenomena. Secondly, they didn't really have a previous system that would be massively affected, since the sWiiU was doing terrible regardless.

With the current Switch, announcing the next system late this year for early next year will likely impact the sales, so you are essentially sabotaging your holiday sales. This is why I don't feel that launching early in the year is a sensible scenario.

Perhaps they don't have their software lineup in order yet, and that is the reason why they are going to launch early in the year. But I feel that they really will want to launch in the holidays again for this reason.
 
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