Winter 2023 at that, which points more go this side of the new year than next. Xenoblade Chronicals 2, for instance, was announced for winter and launched early December.Pokemon DLC specifically said Winter, so probably not far into March if so, likely Feb or even Jan (Pokemon Legends launched in Jan for instance).
Nah. August is plenty likely.If no announcement is made by the end of July, the possibility of a launch in 2023 will be eliminated.
I would prefer a clamshell so the buttons and screen aren't at the mercy of pocket lint.
This is the Retroid Pocket 3, it is around as powerful as the Switch (better CPU) it's $149, comes with 128GB EMMC storage and SD expansion, and as you can see is much smaller than the Switch Lite, making it more pocketable, while still able to fit a ~5 inch screen (it is 4.7, but vita's is 5 with bezels). This is what Nintendo needs to release IMO.
Spider-man used ML muscle/cloth deformation, so tensor cores definitely aren't needed. still unknown how much speed up tensor cores would even provide here
I hope we can refine Thraktor's method to get these results for a wider range of GPU clocks and SM counts. That way, we could maybe have the full range of GPU options Nintendo had for this gen.
I finally was able to find where Thraktor got the number from.
First thing to note is that the tests were efficiency per cuda core, so the fact that the SM structure between A100 and GA10X is vastly different, isn't an issue. However A100 Cuda cores themselves are different, for one thing they do double precision VASTLY differently. A100 is 2:1, GA102 is 30:1, that means you need 2TFLOPs of fp32 on A100 to process 1TFLOPs fp64, however you need 30TFLOPs fp32 to process 1TFLOPs fp64 on RTX 3080. These cores are different, they are all clocked much higher than Drake, which is important for later, lets continue.
The comparison between TSMC 7nm and Samsung 5LPE exists, it was done by Anandtech here (oldpuck and dakhil helped me source this stuff btw, thanks oldpuck, dakhil):
We also have the Exynos 9820 vs the Exynos 9825, 8LPP vs 7LPP, even if you just pretend that these devices pull the same wattage from all other components and it was just the 9820 with 4100mah vs 9825 3500mah, the 9825 last 8% longer, while the 9820 has a battery 17% bigger. Ultimately this means that Samsung 7LPP is greater than 22% reduction of power (it is even better than this when taking into account the slightly higher clocks and larger screen).
Then going back to the Anandtech link:
We see that the move from 7LPP to 5LPP results in a reduction of power consumption by ~24%.
There is a reduction of 5% from 5LPE to 5LPP.
The reduction from 8LPP to 7LPP is ~25%, then the reduction from 7LPP to 5LPE is ~24%, meaning Orin on 5LPP would consume around ~54% at the same frequencies.
We can check to see how roughly correct this all is by checking 8 Gen 1 (Samsung 5LPP/4LPX) vs 8 Gen 1+ (TSMC 4nm)
What the picture above shows is that the 30% reduction in power consumption from Samsung 5LPP/4LPX to TSMC 4nm is at the higher frequencies, pushing upwards of twice the frequency of Drake's SoC, where it would be in the neighborhood of ~10% to ~15%.
But TSMC 4nm isn't TSMC 4N, TSMC 4N is TSMC 5nm (thank Nvidia for that), so what is the power reduction from TSMC 5nm to TSMC 4nm? 22%.
This number is likely also the high end frequency, and likely is smaller than Samsung 5LPP to TSMC 4nm, but obviously not by very much.
All the above info leads to this. An Orin chart with these realistic clocks for "Switch 2"s handheld mode:
Orin (High load) CPU: 1881MHz, (High load) GPU: 624.75MHz
Samsung
8LPP - ~13.1w
7LPP - ~9.8w
5LPP - ~7w
TSMC
7nm - ~7.4w
5nm - ~6.3w
4nm - ~5w
Drake would offer lower power consumptions than this chart, possibly by as much as 10%, because it uses some power saving features from Ada, and because it has less cache and other differences to Orin.
Here is some final things to note, when Qualcomm moved from Samsung 5LPP to TSMC 4nm on the 8 gen 1(+), they increased the GPU from 618MHz to 680MHz, a 10% increase, but maybe much more interesting, the GPU is a little over 2TFLOPs, and unless it is vastly different in efficiency, that means it's passively cooled and finds it's power curve around 600MHz on 5LPP, Drake's architecture is obviously different, so it will be different in power draw per flop, however this likely means Drake's clock IF 5LPP is going to be around 600MHz, but one thing interesting to note about the current Switch, is that it runs it's portable clock as high as 460MHz, which was done in botw, seemingly since launch because battery tests never changed when newer models came out, this is higher than TX1's known power curve, which could mean they are looking at the 660MHz clock (if it is the target) in much the same way as the 460MHz clock.
The difference between 460MHz in portable and 768MHz in docked (67%) is very similar to these found clocks, 660MHz in portable and 1125MHz docked (70%). In fact, it's even slightly more aggressive than these new clocks would be.
As much work as Thraktor put into his post, I do think that he was working with inaccurate data, it's a lot of great data, and through, but just it's square shaped, and the hole is round.
This is the Retroid Pocket 3, it is around as powerful as the Switch (better CPU) it's $149, comes with 128GB EMMC storage and SD expansion, and as you can see is much smaller than the Switch Lite, making it more pocketable, while still able to fit a ~5 inch screen (it is 4.7, but vita's is 5 with bezels). This is what Nintendo needs to release IMO.
FSR 2 increases framerate and improves latency. Adding frame interpolation further increases framerate, but increases latency and reduces reactivity. Therefore we will be adding latency reduction techniques to FSR 3.
FSR 3 combines resolution upscaling with frame interpolation, and if you already have FSR 2 in your game, it is expected to be easier to integrate FSR 3.
As always with our FidelityFX technologies, FSR 3 is expected to be available under the open-source MIT license to allow optimal flexibility of integration.
I would prefer a clamshell so the buttons and screen aren't at the mercy of pocket lint.
Thugstas is Shantae confirmedI’m alone… and I know nothing and love making belly dance
Honestly, even without a die shrink, I think this size/format of Switch would be possible.
They announced it just a few days ago, Retroid Pocket Flip, same specs as RP3+.
Yes, many!If the Switch 2 is coming before April 2024, Nintendo will talk about it at their investor's meeting in May.
That meeting happens basically the same day as TotK's release date so they would obviously announce the system before the investor's meeting to not overshadow TotK.
Basically, the Switch 2 is getting announced in the next few weeks if it's coming out before April 2024.
Is there any potential argument against this.
Nah he's just being weird because I called him out for seeking attention without justification and he took it personallyThugstas is Shantae confirmed
Doesn’t necessarily have to be in May, just has to be enough months beforehand of the release.If the Switch 2 is coming before April 2024, Nintendo will talk about it at their investor's meeting in May.
That meeting happens basically the same day as TotK's release date so they would obviously announce the system before the investor's meeting to not overshadow TotK.
Basically, the Switch 2 is getting announced in the next few weeks if it's coming out before April 2024.
Is there any potential argument against this.
Yes, many!
Doesn’t necessarily have to be in May, just has to be enough months beforehand of the release.
Not weirder than another famiboarder … seeking attention for what ?Nah he's just being weird because I called him out for seeking attention without justification and he took it personally
I’m Algerian so… belly dance is commonThugstas is Shantae confirmed
It'll have an explosive start, explosive as C-4 I mean, if you die in the game you explode in real life, what a genius new gimmick! >So you’re saying it’s going to be the bomb??
It'll have an explosive start, explosive as C-4 I mean, if you die in the game you explode in real life, what a genius new gimmick! >
I've argued that even if slower it still has value, simply because it's free silicon otherwise sitting idle during the CPU bound sections of the pipeline. During Project Quantum at Mozilla, one of the major efforts was to hire video game engineers to rebuild the browser's rendering pipeline. The rationale being that 3D perf was growing faster than compute, and it didn't matter if algorithmically it was faster, that the sheet quantity of performance growth in that sector would pay off long term.I'm expecting heavier use of ML on [redacted] not so much because of the overall performance on ML tasks, but rather the performance relative to more traditional approaches.
Kirby's True Arena game modes will do the trickMan ... in this case i hope the Soulsborne games won't be ported.
So you do belly dancingI’m Algerian so… belly dance is common
Yes and multi cultural dancesSo you do belly dancing
It's safe to say this thread is around 1% news and maths about said news, 9% is rumours, and 90% is speculation about that 10%, and that's being kind.Speculation in the, "Future Nintendo Hardware Technology Speculation" thread? Unbelievable
I love how the Switch OLED and Switch Lite were announced at investor meetings!Why would they not tell investors in May that it was coming in the upcoming fiscal year.
I love how the Switch OLED and Switch Lite were announced at investor meetings!
I would also like a borderless screen.I would prefer a clamshell so the buttons and screen aren't at the mercy of pocket lint.
I think they only told investors when the NX was coming because the Wii U was in such a dire state, there is no need for that now, they can keep everyone hanging as long as the money keeps coming.
Can you list how often nintendo has actually announced a new console at an investor meeting? Because to my knowledge, the Nintendo 3DS wasn’t announced at an investor meeting. The Nintendo DS wasn’t announced at an investor meeting. The Nintendo Wii U wasn’t announced at an investor meeting. The Nintendo switch, project NX was the only time of recent memory where it was announced at an investor meeting, and it was a very specific case.Do you think those were comparable to an entire new system that has to be the successor and replacement to one of the three most successful gaming systems ever made.
Investors also REALLY want the Switch 2 to be announced and released soon as Switch sales are declining. Switch sales were extremely strong as of May 2021.
I am not sure they would if they only mention the Switch or they could just say they have many games that will drive sales.But why project a large HW sales spike without explaining why when everyone will assume the one thing.
Can you list how often nintendo has actually announced a new console at an investor meeting? Because to my knowledge, the Nintendo 3DS wasn’t announced at an investor meeting. The Nintendo DS wasn’t announced at an investor meeting. The Nintendo Wii U wasn’t announced at an investor meeting. The Nintendo switch, project NX was the only time of recent memory where it was announced at an investor meeting, and it was a very specific case.
Every other time has not been done at an investor meeting, so I’m not sure why you believe it’ll suddenly be announced at an investor meeting or that it has a significant chance
This is the common line of thought, but Nintendo mentioned NX when they did because it was around the time they began their move into mobile markets. NX was announced to show investors that they remained committed to dedicated hardware and software & that mobile exploration was a secondary market and not priority.I think they only told investors when the NX was coming because the Wii U was in such a dire state, there is no need for that now, they can keep everyone hanging as long as the money keeps coming.
Not only are you moving the goalpost but you somehow managed to stretch the meaning of “announced before the fiscal year end”I literally said in the first post of this argument that "it has to be announced before the investor meeting because that's the same day as TotK basically"
Not only are you moving the goalpost but you somehow managed to stretch the meaning of “announced before the fiscal year end”
If that’s what we are going to use, they already announced it, years ago.
And for the record, the DS was announced well before the FY even ended.
Yep NX was announced at the same time as DeNA partnership.This is the common line of thought, but Nintendo mentioned NX when they did because it was around the time they began their move into mobile markets. NX was announced to show investors that they remained committed to dedicated hardware and software & that mobile exploration was a secondary market and not priority.
I don't think @ItWasMeantToBe19 is saying they will announce it literally at the investor meeting. The point he raises is legitimate imo, and I guess we can formulate it as: has Nintendo ever gone into the forecast of a new fiscal year during which a new hardware platform will launch without that platform having been announced in some capacity? The 3DS was already announced, as was the WiiU, and the Switch was announced as codename NX.Can you list how often nintendo has actually announced a new console at an investor meeting? Because to my knowledge, the Nintendo 3DS wasn’t announced at an investor meeting. The Nintendo DS wasn’t announced at an investor meeting. The Nintendo Wii U wasn’t announced at an investor meeting. The Nintendo switch, project NX was the only time of recent memory where it was announced at an investor meeting, and it was a very specific case.
Every other time has not been done at an investor meeting, so I’m not sure why you believe it’ll suddenly be announced at an investor meeting or that it has a significant chance
I don't think they can lie like that as investors invest based on expectations. If new hardware is slated next FY we will find out around the time of the AGM in June and their financial forecasts for next FY once this FY ends. That is incidentally around Zelda launching, so May-July will be a crucial period.Like, they could literally just not tell investors why they're expecting much higher HW sales than anyone would expect
They could not announce the Switch 2 for... reasons.
But I'm badly struggling to see a theory for why they would do these things.
If the Switch 2 is coming before April 2024, Nintendo will talk about it at their investor's meeting in May.
Nintendo will talk about a successor at an investor meeting after an announcement, because of course investors need to be updated about details. But it is highly unlikely that Nintendo would announce a successor at an investor meeting or that a specific investor meeting represents any kind of hard deadline.I agree that it would be difficult to explain to investors why, in the face of falling hardware sales (by Nintendo's own admission), they would forecast anything that resembles a positive hardware outlook if they didn't have a successor planned for the fiscal year.
Not weirder than another famiboarder … seeking attention for what ?
I think suffice to say, if nothing about new hardware is said at the investor meeting, I would take a launch in the FY off the table. It's very unlikely it will be surprise announced months later after having given no forecast or indication for it in their briefing. Not formal announcement, more of a "we will be launching new hardware this FY, we have included units with Switch forecast at this time" or something along those lines. This is how they've previously discussed new hardware with investors and informed them, regardless of whether it's been officially revealed or not.If the Switch 2 is coming before April 2024, Nintendo will talk about it at their investor's meeting in May.
That meeting happens basically the same day as TotK's release date so they would obviously announce the system before the investor's meeting to not overshadow TotK.
Basically, the Switch 2 is getting announced in the next few weeks if it's coming out before April 2024.
Is there any potential argument against this.
I feel like you're only considering extremes here. If every game suddenly was only for the new hardware, that would be completely abrupt. But wanting to have at least one impressive exclusive isn't that. And if you have such a game, you're probably not going to want to launch your major cross-gen Zelda the same day.For example, if the planned launch title is a 3D Mario, an assumption I share with you, I have a hard time imagining it not being cross-gen. Given the technological gap that we all hope for in future hardware, it will also be interesting to see how they will handle the situation. I agree with the idea that the next hardware needs games that showcase it, but I have a hard time picturing a completely abrupt departure from the current hardware.
Still, I think a 2D and 3D Mario releasing relatively close makes more sense than NSMB2 and NSMBU hitting four months apart.I am extremely certain that two Mario platformers are not releasing this year as they would have to release within 3 months of each other.
Considering how long cross-gen periods are getting to be, when does that native PS6 era really even start, though? 2032?The Switch 2 will badly suffer with regards to multiplatform ports when the PS6 comes out and games are built around raytracing with few baked shadows. I would expect custom hardware for generating rays, for denoising, and for generating BVH structures and a massive push to have everything built around raytracing.
Shouldn't make a difference. As far as I know every card that ever supported DLSS has supported every version of DLSS 1 and 2. It's only with the frame generation in 3 where a break occurs.Does anyone know if Drake will be using DLSS 2.5.1 or is it stuck on older version?
I hope not, as having that kind of tail for Switch probably means Switch 2 is failing to become the default like happened with PS3. Either that or they dropped older models down to crazy cheap and squeezed out a few ten more million.Could Switch still outsell the DS/PS2 if Switch 2 comes out Late 2023/Early 2024?
The spike wouldn't necessarily be huge. If it was an early 2024 launch like 3DS or Switch, it might be ~3 million.But why project a large HW sales spike without explaining why when everyone will assume the one thing.
Nintendo will talk about a successor at an investor meeting after an announcement, because of course investors need to be updated about details. But it is highly unlikely that Nintendo would announce a successor at an investor meeting or that a specific investor meeting represents any kind of hard deadline.
The majority of Nintendo's shareholders are long term investment portfolios - think "Japanese pension accounts" who have been with Nintendo since the 90s. They don't care about year-to-year stock fluctuations, they care about year-over-year growth and reliable returns. They've been through console release cycles. Nintendo will not have their most important marketing cycles driven by individual shareholders who like to get loud on investor calls.
Nintendo can call special investor's meetings outside of the annual meeting, or distribute unscheduled materials. They have multiple ways to talk to investors off cycle. There is no need to let the investor call dictate the announce strategy. At best, the investor call lines up with their announce strategy and they take advantage of it, but again, not any sort of deadline.