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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
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Goodtwin
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Any time after May is fair game. Give Zelda TotK to shine and push Switch OLED units and then sometime between June and September announce the new hardware showing off new games. Even though a Switch Redacted announcement isn't likely to do much hard to Pikmin 4 sales, it also wouldn't shock me to see Nintendo wait until after that has launched. This assumes no June Nintendo Direct of course. Zelda TotK is going to be a huge release for Nintendo and they will probably feel good about coasting for a few months on the hype surrounding that game.
Im not quite is bullish on the idea that the turn around time for Drake would be so quick. Nintendo had made the deal with Nvidia before the X1 was officially announced and the Tegra X1 would have been finalized by late 2014 or early 2015 seeing as how it was in the Nvidia Shield that released in May of 2015. A gap of two years between silicon being finalized and the console releasing wouldn't be out of the norm. Assuming they wrapped up Drake in the second half of 2022, a release in late 2023 would actually be a more aggressive timeline than the Switch.
It also makes things a bit more difficult with managing the holiday season and software releases. No matter what, Nintendo will want to push for strong sales and maximize the opportunities during the holiday season. At some point its hard to continue to push out high profile software for OG Switch with new hardware on the horizon.
They wouldn't have to announce anything, but it they are forecasting better than expected earnings forecast for the fiscal year, it may be a sign that new hardware is coming. A price drop for the current Switch SKU's would helm keep sales numbers up for the hardware but it would also reduce income for those units sold. So there expected sales and profits could look peculiar for a console in its 7th year on the market.I love how the Switch OLED and Switch Lite were announced at investor meetings!
ItWasMeantToBe19
Manakete
I'm just not seeing an argument for Nintendo refusing to announce their new console before the fiscal year projections if it's coming next fiscal year.
There's some hand-wavy "well, they literally don't have to!" and yes they literally don't, but what is the benefit.
There's some hand-wavy "well, they literally don't have to!" and yes they literally don't, but what is the benefit.
D
Deleted member 645
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Don’t hurt me….
Yes ABSOLUTE LATEST … should… could …hmmm will be released before early 2024 …
I’m good right now ?
Thraktor
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Nvidia shown off a use case for the tensor cores today, though it's not for gameplay but for rendering. it's also more path tracing based, but it's being implemented in RTXGI 2.0, so a game using it isn't too crazy
NVIDIA #GTC2024 Conference Session Catalog
Register now. Streamed online. March 18-21, 2024.www.nvidia.com
they also shown off their latest RTX Showcase (no release date) that heavily leverages RTXDI to have 4700 shadow casting lights with minimal performance loss. I definitely expect restir-based techniques to get a lot of use this generation since it's a technique that's been shown to be quite scalable. I can't wait for the demo's release so we can see just how scalable it is
NVIDIA #GTC2024 Conference Session Catalog
Register now. Streamed online. March 18-21, 2024.www.nvidia.com
Neural Radiance Cache is really interesting. My only concern is that they don't seem to have addressed how it handles moving objects within a scene. I don't think they've shown any examples with moving objects, and if I understand the algorithm correctly I would expect noticeable ghosting around moving objects, at it would take time for the cache to re-train to account for changes in the scene. I wonder if they could adjust the algorithm to account for this. They state that about 96% of paths are terminated early into the cache, with 4% being fully traced, and I suspect they could adjust this ratio non-uniformly across the frame. Perhaps track changes to the BVH, and when an object is hit that has moved since the last frame, increase the sampling rate at that point relative to the amount of movement. Or, just compare the result of fully-traced paths to the results returned from the cache, and increase sampling rates where they diverge.
RTXDI is much more relevant to games (in the short term, anyway). Honestly I think the name undersells it, as it's not just direct illumination. It also handles shadows (including physically accurate soft shadows from area light sources) and ambient occlusion, which would usually be separate tasks. I don't know whether we can expect it to be feasible on T239, as it's obviously been demonstrated on far more powerful hardware, but I've got my fingers crossed that they'll be able to squeeze it on there. Luigi's Mansion 4 with both RTXDI and RTXGI is basically my dream technical showcase for the new hardware.
OP
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Nintendo and Nvidia have to redesign Drake if fabricating Drake using a process node newer than Samsung's 8N process node since EUV lithography is used in process nodes newer than Samsung's 8N process node. (Samsung's 8N process node uses DUV lithography.)
TonyBaduy
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I'd argue that, as far as we know, Nintendo could release Drake this year, in 2024 or 2025. I'd argue that 2026 or beyond would be too late for a chip designed when? 2020? At that point it'd be better to scrap Drake for a new chip on a new arch, plus I doubt they'd sit on a finished chip for 3 more years for no good reason. Still, that doesn't mean it's releasing this FY, it could very well release late 2024 or late 2025.
Paul_Subsonic
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The chip was in the design phase up until last year.
TonyBaduy
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Would you argue that releasing that 4 years later would be something they'd do? I'd think that at that point it'd be scrapped for something new, even the TX1 wasn't that old (at least from completition) when the Switch launched.
Goodtwin
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It would be unprecedented, but the reasoning could be to avoid stifling sales of OG Switch. As soon as word gets out that a new Switch is coming out, the demand for the current model will go down. The sales numbers for Switch have only recently started to decline. So knowing that Switch successor announcement will only hinder current model Switch sales, I would ask you what is the upside to announcing any sooner than absolutely necessary? Switch Redacted is likely going to be a pretty straight forward successor and wont require a long run up of marketing to get consumers familiar with their new hardware. The turn around time could very well end up being similar to the OLED announcement to release, especially if a lot of these launch games will be cross gen.
Paul_Subsonic
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I'd argue they're not launching in 2026, unless major incident at Nintendo.
A late 2024 release would put Nintendo in a rough spot. 2026 ? Financial suicide.
TonyBaduy
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And we are talking about Drake still, imagine that launching in 2026, we'd be talking about either the Pro versions of current gen consoles if they haven't released already or their next gen, which would probably not be too far off. In any case, we have no idea what Nintendo is planning or how what agreement they have with Nvidia, so we don't know if they'd be willing to sit on a completed chip for more than 2 years. I guess they could launch in May 2024, they can announce it in Jan and have a 5 month gap between announcement and release, if they don't release it this year I mean. They could also release it in 2025, who knows?
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Because there’s no incentive to, just like in the previous instances with the platforms, they did not use the fiscal meeting to announce a new platform. All they did was just announce it whenever they felt like it was appropriate to announce and give a timing of when they envision it to be released. This is why I’m asking why are you so hinged on the investor meeting of all places About that. They will talk about the successor if they are asked about the successor by their investors. Otherwise they will not get asked about it at all.
Let’s envision this, they don’t announce it in May. They reveal and announce it for around June, and then their next investor meeting which would be in August they talk about it because investors ask them about it. That’s all. The whole argument I’ve been talking about is that there’s no need to depend on the investor meeting for announcement, because it is not guaranteed.
And I get that, but the likelihood of them announcing it between the fiscal year end, and the next fiscal meeting I find to be pretty low. In fact, I find it more likely for them to announce it after the fiscal meeting. Like about a few weeks after the fiscal meeting.
I totally get this sentiment, but really, Nintendo does not announce hardware at fiscal meetings. That’s way over exaggerated and I feel like people are forgetting that the last couple of times that they’ve announce entirely new platforms it’s actually been at a separate thing entirely.
There’s way too much emphasis about the fiscal meeting and an announcement.
I’m not saying they won’t announce anything. I’m saying they aren’t likely to announce it before, but rather after.
If Nintendo had indeed cancelled their new hardware so far into its development (being actively worked on as recently as few months ago), the ramifications would be huge and involve several thousands of people ranging from Nintendo, Nvidia, subcontractors, development studios and possibly marketing people.
You wouldn't hear about this cancellation from random YouTuber #1 or #2. Instead, you'd probably have loads of people with an interest in the business indirectly alluding at how fucked up the situation is with Nintendo, while high profile journalists would have a field day making articles about Nintendo's dire situation in the console market for the upcoming years.
As for Nintendo, they would be hard at work trying to convince us that the current Switch is the way to go, probably announcing new exciting games left and right and repurposing formerly Drake exclusive into TX1 compatible software. While scrambling to release their new generation for end of 2025 or early 2026, investing millions which could definitely show in some ways. Furukawa's position would be quite precarious and we'd see some high level executives being either demoted if not outright fired.
Cancelling a console so late into its development, in the year 2023 of our Lord, is very different from doing so in the 90's with the SNES CD.
- Firstly because we're talking about the machine carrying the entirety of their business for the next 7ish years, and not the CD addon to an aging home console, while you have the Gameboy on the side, your replacement machine slated for 2 years later, and you are outrageously dominating both markets anyway.
- Secondly because the cost of developing a new machine and the timeframe is probably markedly higher nowadays, especially after the worst pandemic in 100 years.
- Thirdly, because Nintendo now knows the price and possible implications of cancelling a hardware: last time they did, it created their nemesis which could have very well Sega-ed them if not for the stroke of genius that were the Wii and the DS.
My words have no value when it comes to reassuring people, but Nintendo hasn't cancelled Drake and I don't even need my Shizuoka-grown tea leaves to assert that.
You wouldn't hear about this cancellation from random YouTuber #1 or #2. Instead, you'd probably have loads of people with an interest in the business indirectly alluding at how fucked up the situation is with Nintendo, while high profile journalists would have a field day making articles about Nintendo's dire situation in the console market for the upcoming years.
As for Nintendo, they would be hard at work trying to convince us that the current Switch is the way to go, probably announcing new exciting games left and right and repurposing formerly Drake exclusive into TX1 compatible software. While scrambling to release their new generation for end of 2025 or early 2026, investing millions which could definitely show in some ways. Furukawa's position would be quite precarious and we'd see some high level executives being either demoted if not outright fired.
Cancelling a console so late into its development, in the year 2023 of our Lord, is very different from doing so in the 90's with the SNES CD.
- Firstly because we're talking about the machine carrying the entirety of their business for the next 7ish years, and not the CD addon to an aging home console, while you have the Gameboy on the side, your replacement machine slated for 2 years later, and you are outrageously dominating both markets anyway.
- Secondly because the cost of developing a new machine and the timeframe is probably markedly higher nowadays, especially after the worst pandemic in 100 years.
- Thirdly, because Nintendo now knows the price and possible implications of cancelling a hardware: last time they did, it created their nemesis which could have very well Sega-ed them if not for the stroke of genius that were the Wii and the DS.
My words have no value when it comes to reassuring people, but Nintendo hasn't cancelled Drake and I don't even need my Shizuoka-grown tea leaves to assert that.
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Beautifully stated.
Truno
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I think this year feels particularly off because early last year we were pretty confident we'd get Mario+Rabbids, Bayonetta, Splatoon, Xenoblade, and Pokemon S&V during the second half of the year. Right now there's only speculation about what we might see.
I also don't buy the "no heavy hitters" claim as Nintendo shadow dropped Metroid Prime Remastered and slotted Advance Wars for the first half. Those are things you don't do if you have a light second half
LukasManak22
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Yeah exactly my thoughts, it's a cliche but no one can predict anything, even if it feels off it may be won't be in the end. Especially when in the past they had no problem announcing their Holiday titles as late as June (3D World in 2013, Metroid Dread and Mario Party Superstars just to name a few). I still feel pretty confident that October/November is 2D Mario. Having TotK, Pikmin 4 or even 2D Mario in the same year on the system that will likely be replaced in 2024 is still a pretty solid lineup (not mentioning other non-EPD titles and DLC's released this year ).
Instro
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I mean I'd encourage everyone to go back and look at the timelines of hardware announcements/releases for new hardware vs how they accounted for those in the related FY briefings. If it was releasing in the FY, it was always confirmed in the FY briefing regardless of how much or little they had revealed of it. Not after the fact in some updated forecast. To your point regarding a true announcement, I'd reasonably expect an announcement of some sort in the weeks leading to the investor meeting, as occured with the WiiU and 3DS via press releases. Only the NX and DS were first truly "announced" via investor meetings. If we've passed the investor briefing, and no mention of new hardware coming has been made anywhere, then I think 2H 2024 or beyond is basically guaranteed.
D
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Nintendo's original timeline for Switch, according to the gigaleak, was 18 months from chip sampling. Understand that up till the end of 2014, they were actively pursuing a second, custom SOC design with a different company, and that the Switch concept evolved over the course of 2014, and wasn't locked into it's close to final form till about December of that year.
That second SOC was not capable of delivering on Wii U level performance, nor was it designed to
At that point, procurement for screens, case design, finalizing the NVN API, shipping devkits, building the SDK, and moving in progress Wii U games, and developing additional launch year exclusives all had to launch after the TX1 decision was made, and my understanding is that the slip to 2 years was driven by software not hardware.
Considering that NVN2 is an API superset of NVN, and that we've long presumed that REDACTED is a Switch Sequel, it seems like an 18 month timeline is eminently doable. I won't conjecture about when Nintendo will launch a new device, or whether they had a significant change of plan as has seems possible, but I wouldn't rule out a launch this year as technically unfeasible, or even odd.
That second SOC was not capable of delivering on Wii U level performance, nor was it designed to
At that point, procurement for screens, case design, finalizing the NVN API, shipping devkits, building the SDK, and moving in progress Wii U games, and developing additional launch year exclusives all had to launch after the TX1 decision was made, and my understanding is that the slip to 2 years was driven by software not hardware.
Considering that NVN2 is an API superset of NVN, and that we've long presumed that REDACTED is a Switch Sequel, it seems like an 18 month timeline is eminently doable. I won't conjecture about when Nintendo will launch a new device, or whether they had a significant change of plan as has seems possible, but I wouldn't rule out a launch this year as technically unfeasible, or even odd.
Thraktor
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No worries. What I'm saying is that we can infer what manufacturing process they are planning to use based on the fact that they chose such a large GPU.
If they were planning to manufacture on 8nm, then I don't think there's any reasonable justification for them choosing a 12 SM GPU. They could achieve better performance in portable mode at lower cost by using a smaller GPU (eg around 6 SMs) and clocking it higher. Therefore I think it Samsung 8nm is very unlikely. Conversely, 12 SMs would seem to be a very sensible design for TSMC 4N, so I think 4N is more likely. I should also mention that I don't think there's any reason to believe that they've changed manufacturing process at any point. They wouldn't have designed a 12 SM GPU for 8nm and only after the fact realised that it's far too big for Nintendo's requirements. I could have told them that, and Nvidia know far, far more about this kind of stuff than I do.
There is one additional caveat to this, which is that I'm assuming that they'll be using all SMs in portable mode. It's worth noting that it's technically possible for them run fewer SMs in portable mode than docked. If we are wondering why they'd do such a thing, the only reason I can think of is if they want to have a much larger performance gap between portable and docked mode than on the original switch (eg 4x or more). This isn't really plausible if you use the same number of SMs in both modes, but if you effectively add extra SMs for use in docked mode, then you get a larger than expected GPU that has a much bigger gap between docked and portable performance.
This isn't something I expect, though. Although we will see a bigger gap in output resolutions than before (I'm expecting 4x between a 1080p handheld display and 4K TV out, compared to 2.25x between the 720p screen and 1080p TV on the original Switch), I don't expect rendering resolutions to actually be 4x higher in docked mode. Part of this is because the hardware seems to be designed around DLSS, and DLSS tends to perform better with higher input resolutions. That is, although you might be running DLSS with a 1080p internal resolution and 4K output in docked mode, it's not necessarily the case you'd want to run at 540p internal resolution scaled to 1080p for portable mode. Something closer to 720p to 1080p scaling would probably give closer image quality (in terms of sharpness relative to resolution, and lack of artefacts) to the 1080p to 4K scaling gets you in docked mode. Another reason ties into @oldpuck's post on the previous page, which is that I'd expect more traditional CPU tasks to run on the GPU this time around due to the existence of the tensor cores. These tasks don't scale with resolution, so depending on the ratio of GPU time spent between compute tasks to rendering tasks would actually want the gap between GPU performance across the two modes to be smaller than the gap in resolution.
Going with an extra-large GPU and disabling half of it in portable mode would also mean Nintendo would be paying extra for hardware they're only using half the time, and there's extra software work required both to implement the switching between modes in a clean manner, and also on the side of game developers to account for the different available hardware in each mode.
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We've seen restir running on all manner of hardware at this point. Back at the qualcomm event, Oppo shown off restir as a part of their mobile rt sdk. They never went into detail on it, but I assume it was for direct illumination and shadows
Look over there
Bob-omb
My interpretation is the former.
The central question is, 'Why is the GPU that particular size?'. Which then prompts the discussion, 'what makes a GPU 'worth it' at so and so size?'.
There's both energy efficiency (performance at a given power draw) to consider as well as the absolute amount of perf you're getting back for the $$$ spent on the silicon. Then Thraktor has argued that at the point where the GPU size starts making sense, you're at least way above plausible power draw for portable mode on Samsung 8 nm (and I agree). Moreover, the amount by which you'd need to cut down that power draw by to get into a plausible range seems more likely to be fulfilled by 4N. Although, we don't have enough information to necessarily rule out whether a 7nm generation node is capable enough.
Goodtwin
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Exactly. Remember when the EA deal with Nintendo for Wii U went down the drain, word got out pretty quickly. The relationship between EA and Nintendo sucks till this day even though Switch has been a resounding success and its been to EA's detriment that they barely support it.
Its easy to rationalize a theory that a Switch Pro using Mariko or at least an X1 derivative was being considered and ultimately didn't make it to market. There are clues within the Switch OLED model that support this theory. Its very likely that the OLED was going to be more than just a screen upgrade at one point and this theory has supporting facts to back it up. Its much harder to rationalize an argument surrounding a Pro model with PS4 Pro levels of performance getting cancelled in late 2022. For starters, that is a generational leap in performance over the current Switch and regardless of how Nintendo planned to position it from a marketing standpoint, it would be a long term product. You don't release a Switch Pro with 3+Tflop and then two years down the road release a true successor that wouldn't even be twice as powerful as the Pro model.
Even when you listen to John at DF comment on the Switch Pro, he doesn't go into any detail beyond that he had heard a more powerful revision was in development at one point and was no longer coming to market. We do not have any corroboration amongst "insiders" on the idea that a Pro model with PS4 Pro levels of performance was in development slated for a late 2022 or early 2023 release. That part of the Pro rumor comes from one source, and honestly if that source's info ends up being true, there is no way Nintendo would have new hardware ready within the next 24 months. It simply takes too long to go from proof of concept to market. Time will tell, but there really is no middle ground. Either that source had bad info or we are all going to be very disappointed for quite some time.
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We had these very same discussions last year, about whether their Switch projections were too high and if that was a clue. Nobody in the real world made a big deal about it. Since then it turns out those projections were too high, and have been downwardly revised by 3 million.
Don't distract people with the giant thing over the hill when you're trying to sell them a huge production that's been in the works 5+ years?
D
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Nobody says Drake was cancelled... what are you talking about?
Is there any more information about this second SoC they juggled along with the TX1 before ultimately deciding on the latter?
Thraktor
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Regarding the topic of Nintendo announcing new hardware at or before their first investor meeting of the FY, I think there's a big difference between confirming the existence of it and actually announcing it. Switch released in the last month of FY17, and at the start of that FY, Nintendo had confirmed that they'd be releasing some nebulous thing code-named NX, but had given absolutely zero details about it. It could have been a videogame-playing toaster for all we knew. The actual announcement of Switch only occurred about half way through the FY.
If [redacted] is releasing in FY24 (which I expect), then I do think it's possible that they could confirm the existence of new hardware releasing in the FY at or before their investor call, without actually "announcing" it in the sense that we all think of an announcement. That is, they could say "We're planning on releasing a new hardware platform this financial year, sales of which aren't included in our forecast. Full details will be provided at a future date." Maybe add that it's a successor to the Switch to make it clear to investors that they don't plan on abandoning the Switch audience. Then have an actual announcement in June or July or whatever.
If [redacted] is releasing in FY24 (which I expect), then I do think it's possible that they could confirm the existence of new hardware releasing in the FY at or before their investor call, without actually "announcing" it in the sense that we all think of an announcement. That is, they could say "We're planning on releasing a new hardware platform this financial year, sales of which aren't included in our forecast. Full details will be provided at a future date." Maybe add that it's a successor to the Switch to make it clear to investors that they don't plan on abandoning the Switch audience. Then have an actual announcement in June or July or whatever.
Goodtwin
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It ties into the rumor that a Switch Pro with PS4 Pro levels of performance was planned for late 2022 or early 2023 but has been canceled. Drake happens to have PS4 Pro levels of performance. So if that information/rumor is true, there wouldn't be two different SOC's offering PS4 Pro levels of performance being designed for Nintendo, meaning it would have been using Drake but has been canceled.
Truno
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The rumor was that a 'Pro' console was scrapped, but there was no mention of specs. A Switch Pro with Ps4 Pro levels of performance would be complete overkill
Goodtwin
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D
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So first off, I think, respectfully, this is a fake pattern.
If you have a year long marketing cycle, of course you will have a FY call between your announcement and your launch, and so of course you include details about it in the forecast. It is impossible not to. If you believe in a one year marketing cycle for a future device, you don't need to look to the FY call for evidence that it won't launch this year. And if you don't believe a one year marketing cycle is required, then I don't think you can look to the pattern of previous one year marketing cycles for evidence.
Second off, it doesn't actually hold up. New 3DS, for example, was announced on August 29, three days after the annual report and released in October. Nintendo didn't need to adjust hardware expectations, because as part of the same "family" of systems, it was already accounted for, but they did release supplemental investor information after.
I am of mixed opinions about the need for a year long cycle, and I think that it brings back the dreaded Pro/Successor talk but if Nintendo positions it more like a GBC or a New3DS, then a yearlong cycle actively doesn't make sense, and there is precedent for that tight announce release cycle. If Nintendo positions it as a GBA or a 3DS, then maybe it does. And if it keeps the name "Switch" then Nintendo doesn't need to mention it at all in the fiscal talk, because the "Switch" line item will cover all manner of sins.
I am not making a statement on what Nintendo will do. I'm simply saying that I think the correlation you mention is a side effect of other factors, and that many In This Thread, tend to assume those factors don't apply in this case, and certainly they do seem to be breaking down.
Sure it's me making things up now.
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Some have been popping in saying it was canceled
TSR3
Pilotwings
Thanks for the answers (and @Dakhil too). But now I'm concerned that we won't see Drake until late '24, as Nvidia don't seem to release Tegra SoCs until near the end of GPU generation. My thought is that if Drake is on 4N, it might not come out until Nvidia have produced most of their run of Lovelace cards.
I thought it's been made abundantly clear that the switch pro was canceled not the Drake soc for the switch 2...
T239 has an Ampere GPU, not a Lovelace one. It's mostly grouped with the Orin SoC, which already released.
they won't be able to produce most of their lovelace cards because they can't sell them. their volume product (consumer gpus) are moving at a slow clip thanks to economic times and the perception of poor value
but that's why Drake being on 4N works, Nvidia shuffles products around and prioritizes products that sell better. Drake would be one of those
TSR3
Pilotwings
Yeah, I know. Sorry, I should’ve have been clearer. My concern was about it sharing the 4N node with Lovelace, and not getting any production slots until later next year
Most indications seem to be that Lovelace is, if anything, oversupplied right now. I don't think that's a big concern.
with the amount of chips they sell to Nintendo, they will make room. margins on dgpus are low and the market is fickle. console chips have low margins but are a much more consistent seller
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Well, not everyone actually reads the thread to be fair, and some have been saying Drake has been cancelled.
Which… isn’t true lol
Armoured_Bear
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Could it be that nothing was ever cancelled, just delayed, say to get DLSS working well enough?
Instro
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If you see it as something other than a successor then sure I can buy into being handled more like a refresh model from a financials and launch/release standpoint. That would be a pretty incredible choice at this stage though, and something I feel was only worth floating out there previously due to failed Pro rumors/speculation. In year 7 though...? I don't know, sounds like a big risk without a foreseeable upside. Probably worth noting that given the current sales trajectory, we should be able to tell if they are hiding something like that in the Switch forecast. Switch is likely going to sell 12-13m next FY, so a forecast of 18m+ or whatever would be pretty obvious. Difficult to hide something like this now, vs the peak years.
I'm definitely sticking with the traditional successor path personally, which is why I'm entirely relying on their previous business practices for handling that type of reveal/launch.
DLSS was probably one of the first things they got running
but no, they wouldn't delay for that. devs just won't have the option to use DLSS. it ain't the only tool in the shed
TSR3
Pilotwings
Isn’t TSMCs 4N mode supposed to be expensive? Like the charged Nvidia more than other customers?
There's nothing serious supporting the narrative that a console was either delayed or cancelled. Nintendo has been releasing new hardware every 2 years like clockwork, and will in all likelihood do so soon-ish with a 2-3 years gap between OLED and Drake, which makes sense considering that Drake is a completely new generation.
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