StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[D36]

If it's not factored into the fiscal briefing and forecast already, then it's pretty unlikely that they would update the forecast to add millions of units of hardware, along with changing their cash flow forecasts, mid fiscal year. That would be a very significant change. That's likely why analysts are saying what they are saying, and perhaps they have their own sources as well, based on that other article referencing a "source close to Nintendo" from Nikkei.

Maybe it still happens this FY, or maybe it released immediately after the FY, but I think we can safely say, based on the last several months, there's been no indication that it's coming "soon", and that's been echoed by journalists, insiders, and industry analysts alike. Every indication we have is pointing in the opposite direction. So people should reasonably adjust expectations on when hardware is coming.

I think this is my first time hearing about insiders corroborating talk about a 2024+ release outside of today. Could you elaborate, because I'm not sure if I buy that, even if they had been talking about this year. Honestly, with how often these insiders tend to be wrong, I would rather put stock into what Nintendo has to say and even that might not be helpful.

 

[jaycie]

Nothing regarding future hardware was really confirmed, as far as we know. It's mostly been hearsay from insiders. Many people are pointing to Nintendo's high sales forecast as indication for a hardware release next year, but I personally don't think it holds any water. It should also be noted that earnings reports aren't typically the best place to look for future announcements; rumblings maybe, but they're not as definitive as people seem to think. I was guilty of falling for it too, so I can't talk too much.

that's true
I always used to think March 2024 made the most sense, then when I learned about Drake I thought November 2023, now it seems like it could be neither. again, like you say, nothing confirmed but imma try to keep myself in check and not get my hopes up too much

 

[ziggyrivers]

Fact:
• Nintendo forecasted 15 million Switch units to be sold for this Fiscal Year.

Speculation:
• Of those 15 million, the successor could be in there;

• Nintendo will later revise the amount to include the Drake when they officially announce it

—————

My take on the speculation:
• it’s more reasonable to have included the successor in that forecast, since a newer console will eat out the original hardware’s sales

lmaoo I love this meme! Thanks for bringing it back xD

I think this is my first time hearing about insiders corroborating talk about a 2024+

When have insiders corroborated for 2024+?

The closest you get is a forecast of 15M is interesting as it's a relatively small drop from 18M. Of course that could be covered by Nintendo releasing new hardware late in the FY, it could also be covered by a price reduction, or just confidence that the software itself will drive 15M of sales.

I think this is the best take of the current situation.

 

[Goodtwin]

One of the fellow members posted a translation that Furakawa said that they have no announcements at the moment

I saw that, but I am waiting to see the full Q&A to see how the questions are framed relative to the responses. So far what we have is a non answer. They aren't saying no new hardware for this fiscal year, something they have said during a previous fiscal year when they didn't have new hardware coming. Im not saying that a non answer means anything positive, but if they were to outright say no new hardware for the fiscal year, I would at that point write it off for 2023. As it stands, we have a forecast for Switch that is significantly down from what they were selling a couple years ago, no dated titles past Pikmin 4 and only one title announced past that with no release date given with Prime 4. There is still plenty of reason to believe late 2023 is possible. The second half is still a blank canvas, nobody knows much of anything.

Will we seriously have a month of June with no first party game?

Zelda TotK is such a big release for Nintendo I could see them giving it two months to sell without releasing another first party title. Its expected to sell 10-15 million copies in that time frame. Its not often Nintendo moves 10-15 million software units in May and June, even with multiple titles releasing those months.

Warn us of what? He's as much in the dark as the rest of us. I think we're leaning too much towards his word again.

Yea, and even if Nate is less in the dark than us, who cares because he is unable/unwilling to share what he knows with us. I guess some people are fine with believing that Nintendo had 4K hardware on the verge of releasing, with games being prepared for this new hardware only to be canceled shortly before release. You have to ask yourself the question, how was Nintendo better off by completely scraping this Switch model when they had already invested all the R&D and developers would have spent money preparing titles for its release? The Switch OLED model proved to Nintendo that consumers were interested in upgrading their Switch hardware, even when it was an incremental upgrade. So are we really to believe that this Switch Pro model wouldn't have seen some success? Just like the OLED model, would have caused a bunch of Switch owners to upgrade?

 

[Deleted member 4629]

• Fire Emblem 4 remake
• 2D Mario
• Metroid Prime 4
• Tomodachi Life
• Wind Waker HD / Twilight Princess HD
• Paper Mario TTYD HD
• Ring Fit Adventure 2
• Animal Crossing spinoff
• Xenoblade Warriors
• Astral Chain 2
• Rhythm Heaven

There you go, 11 games that can reasonably release on Switch by the end of 2024. Plus a lot of DLC.

Tomodachi Life
Ring Fit Adventure 2
Animal Crossing
Xenoblade Warriors
Could someone please clue me in about these 4 particular games? I've seen rumours and speculations about the other games on this list but not on these games. Am i just missing something or is this person just making guesses? No offense if they are making guesses, i'd just like to know if something maybe went over my head.

 

[D36]

Fact:
• Nintendo forecasted 15 million Switch units to be sold for this Fiscal Year.

Speculation:
• Of those 15 million, the successor could be in there;

• Nintendo will later revise the amount to include the Drake when they officially announce it

—————

My take on the speculation:
• it’s more reasonable to have included the successor in that forecast, since a newer console will eat out the original hardware’s sales


lmaoo I love this meme! Thanks for bringing it back xD


When have insiders corroborated for 2024+?


I think this is the best take of the current situation.

That's what I'm trying to figure out.

 

[Chauzu]

My personal view around 2023 or 2024 is tied to new game announcements. In the current situations, with no games at all dated past June, I lean towards new hardwave, because it'd make sense to save games to tie in to launch. But if "Switch 2" launches in 2024 it's not like they can just ignore the rest of 2023 and they will need games to fill out the rest of 2023. Thankfully this will be resolved in a few months. Either we get lots of game announcements or we get the Switch 2 reveal.

 

[Deleted member 887]

Nintendo's next Switch will be outdated by the time it comes out (assuming it is Drake). Graphics and CPU tech that came out in 2020 releasing in late 2024 / early 2025. Nice job, Nintendo.

At this rate the Steam Deck 2 should be out before Nintendo's next system.

Their hardware wasn't as outdated as Switch is though.

Switch already had weak hardware when it was released, unfortunately this is Nintendo's strategy, Nintendo doesn't launch new consoles because the old hardware is outdated, they launch when they believe they will make more money with a new platform than the old one.

Tbh, part of this approach might be helping them sell the console at a lower price (which they like doing) while also avoiding selling at a loss (which they also like doing).

Quoting you all to join in on the conversation, not responding to anyone specifically. But there won't be successor technology that could really improve upon Drake till 2025, and that is unlikely to be cost effective for Nintendo until 2026.

Right now, Drake's design is built on Ampere SMs and A78 CPUs. While there are successors to both those designs on the market (Lovelace, and the various ARM 9 cores), they're all transitional designs that aren't necessarily wins.

Meanwhile, in terms of nodes available, the reasonable expectation is that Nvidia/Nintendo are going with 5nm of some kind, and while Nvidia is probably going to be ready for a 3nm product line in 2025, I doubt it would be affordable.

Nintendo created a handheld market, Steam Deck expanded it, and AMD leapt at it. Whenever REDACTED launches, it won't be the most powerful handheld gaming device. If that's what you're after, you have options right now, and will likely have more options then. But Nintendo is still gonna be delivering a handheld experience into a world where PS5 is setting the performance baseline, no matter when in the next 18 months they launch.

 

[Boxle]

If it's not factored into the fiscal briefing and forecast already, then it's pretty unlikely that they would update the forecast to add millions of units of hardware, along with changing their cash flow forecasts, mid fiscal year. That would be a very significant change.

It isn't the first time that Nintendo has revised their forecast for the fiscal year. They did so back in February of 2021, raising the forecast from 24 million to 26.5 million. This adjustment was done in the last 2 months of the fiscal year.

I'm not saying these situations aren't different, but let's say the console does launch in Q1 of 2023. They could easily just amend the forecast for an additional couple million sales, or lets if Switch sales aren't doing as well as they'd hoped, say that the forecast hasn't changed, but new hardware sales are now accounted for in the estimate.

Fiscal year forecasts are adjusted according to the current circumstances, it's gone up before, it's gone down before. It's not unreasonable to say that it could happen again, and could accommodate new hardware in the future.

Now I'm sure some will still look at me and say I'm in denial, but I'm not about to ignore things that have happened before, and even if they hadn't happened, that's not to say they couldn't in the future. Again, fiscal year earning reports are not the time to announce a console, and it's a bit silly to think that they would be given how Nintendo always reveals things when they're ready for them and not as a result of some investors meeting. This kind of talk repeats itself very frequently, but it's never actually how things pan out.

 

[fwd-bwd]

 

[Hermii]

Anyway, time for me to get my hopes up again about DLSS 4.0 and UFS 4.0 coming to the Switch 2, let's do this, baby.

It will still be the exact same Drake that could have released this year.

 

[Skittzo]

Fact:
• Nintendo forecasted 15 million Switch units to be sold for this Fiscal Year.

Speculation:
• Of those 15 million, the successor could be in there;

Errr, isn't that the one thing that they explicitly said is not the case? That their forecast does not factor in any new hardware, whether a new gen or an upgrade/refresh?

 

[Pokemaniac]

Ultimately I think this turned out more or less how one could expect, assuming a Switch-like marketing cycle but with Nintendo in full control over when the hardware is announced. When the system comes, it will probably be with little warning.

 

[D36]

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

 

[ziggyrivers]

I saw that, but I am waiting to see the full Q&A to see how the questions are framed relative to the responses.

Yes. Better work with a professionally and management endorsed translation.

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

Errr, isn't that the one thing that they explicitly said is not the case? That their forecast does not factor in any new hardware, whether a new gen or an upgrade/refresh?

I honestly don’t remember, my bad

 

[D36]

A little off topic, but I think I might have to skip Zelda for a bit. After beating the Xenoblade 3 DLC, it's really given me a hankering to play Xenosaga (if you know, you know). I'm also trying to save on money.

 

[NateDrake]

@NateDrake

Do you plan a podcast on this very specific topic about the sales etc?

Not at the moment. Nothing really new here to cover.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

It will still be the exact same Drake that could have released this year.

Not if Drake was cancelled as a chip for the Switch 2!

 

[ziggyrivers]

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I'm just really struggling to see how the Switch can sell 15m units this fiscal year if the Switch 2 launches in November.

The Switch's main SKU is the OLED which becomes extremely unappealing as a product if the Switch 2 launches for $500 or less. The Switch just has no super budget options or the one semi-budget option (the Lite) isn't very popular. The Switch 1's sales would just be instantly cut down by the release of the Switch 2 without a massive OLED price drop or the Switch 2 being like $600 and I don't see either as likely at all.

 

[Kingpin722]

Kinda crazy seeing how pissed everyone is at Nintendo’s plans not aligning with rumors that they’ve contributed 0% to creating. I’d imagine the anxiety would be much lower if rumors hadn’t started in the Switch’s 3rd year.

 

[ziggyrivers]

I'm just really struggling to see how the Switch can sell 15m units this fiscal year if the Switch 2 launches in November.

The Switch's main SKU is the OLED which becomes extremely unappealing as a product if the Switch 2 launches for $500 or less. The Switch just has no super budget options or the one semi-budget option (the Lite) isn't very popular. The Switch 1's sales would just be instantly cut down by the release of the Switch 2 without a massive OLED price drop or the Switch 2 being like $600 and I don't see either as likely at all.

If consumers are crazy for a $499 console (PS5), then they are crazy for a $399 console (Switch successor). If buyers are perceive that a stationary console is worth $499, then they can also perceive that a $399 portable console is more than good. Especially how customers were willing to shell out $50 more for a Switch revision. Consumers have an appetite for upgrade. The $399 isn’t that far fetched

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

If consumers are crazy for a $499 console (PS5), then they are crazy for a $399 console (Switch successor). If buyers are perceive that a stationary console is worth $499, then they can also perceive that a $399 portable console is more than good. Especially how customers were willing to shell out $50 more for a Switch revision. Consumers have an appetite for upgrade. The $399 isn’t that far fetched

.... I'm saying that the Switch 1 would sell not great this fiscal year if the Switch 2 released this November.

And Nintendo is projecting the Switch 1 to sell very well this year.

 

[Semi Lazy Gamer]

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

 

[D36]

Kinda crazy seeing how pissed everyone is at Nintendo’s plans not aligning with rumors that they’ve contributed 0% to creating. I’d imagine the anxiety would be much lower if rumors hadn’t started in the Switch’s 3rd year.

I...... don't think that's really the case here. Their plans so far don't align with certain hypotheses, but that's about it. Som of us are trying to wrap around how Nintendo can follow through on their plans with how the Switch is currently selling and whether or not that correlates to when future hardware. Sure some people (me) have been going a little crazy, but that's just it. Otherwise, it's business as usual.

 

[TomNookYankees]

Look i get that @ItWasMeantToBe19 has a pessimistic outlook on the switch successor release date (2025 or later only makes sense if they cancelled Drake plans around 2022 and had restart from scratch), but it's not being "salty" it's being realistic. Anyone still confidently expecting nintendo to release the successor this calendar year is being unrealistic especially now that nintendo has all but confirmed to investors to not expect any new hardware announcements (or even a price drop, which to me is even crazier than no new hardware), for the current fiscal year.

There is a small, but unlikely chance that nintendo decides to announce something in either October for a spring release or announce in January for an early summer release, but right now the most likely scenario is that Nintendo goes for 2024 holiday season. And Drake being the chipset for the next hardware should no longer be considered a guarantee, althought it's still possible if the main thing holding nintendo back is that they don't have software ready for their next hardware, which would explain their unusually lacking H2 2023 schedule.

 

[Thraktor]

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

A little off topic, but I think I might have to skip Zelda for a bit. After beating the Xenoblade 3 DLC, it's really given me a hankering to play Xenosaga (if you know, you know). I'm also trying to save on money.

I was tempted too, but I've been avoiding ToTK footage/previews/etc to go in with as little knowledge as possible, and that will become increasingly impossible after the game releases. Plus they only ever released the second Xenosaga game here in Europe for some reason, so actually obtaining and playing the trilogy legally would be a pain. The Baten Kaitos remasters make me a bit more confident that we'll see Xenosaga remasters at some point, too.

 

[Quailman]

I don't think they're going to tell a journalist that yes a new conosle is coming and spoil their own reveal. Nintendo will deny deny deny until they reveal when they feel like it.

 

[D36]

The only way I can see Nintendo achieving their projected sales units while a successor releases this year is if they start doing price drops on the older models, though if the successor is around $400, like some of us believe, then a price drop at this point may be unlikely. A cross-gen period would also be vital, as it would give the Switch even more room to grow and it could help the succ be marketed as a premium product.

 

[Hosermess]

For whatever its worth, while all the chaos and uncertainty and doom and coping is happening here, Nintendo stock seems to be doing ok (as of now).

After a little plunge at opening today, it's sitting at $10.85 USD right now.

You have to go back to Aug '22 to find a price that's more than 0.02 higher.

Now if you want to argue that the stock market is almost completely detached from reality, I won't put up too much of a fight. Guess it's not just some of us in here who are completely disregarding what the "analysts" are saying.

 

[Goodtwin]

I'm just really struggling to see how the Switch can sell 15m units this fiscal year if the Switch 2 launches in November.

The Switch's main SKU is the OLED which becomes extremely unappealing as a product if the Switch 2 launches for $500 or less. The Switch just has no super budget options or the one semi-budget option (the Lite) isn't very popular. The Switch 1's sales would just be instantly cut down by the release of the Switch 2 without a massive OLED price drop or the Switch 2 being like $600 and I don't see either as likely at all.

Redacted will be in limited supply, so there will still be Switch units selling because there will be people who want to play Zelda TotK and not have to wait for Redacted to become available. Just like the PS4 still sold a decent chunk in 2020 even though PS5 launched at the end of 2020, Switch will be in a similar situation. Nintendo has yet to reduce the price of Switch and probably wont until they release Redacted, so they have a ton of flexibility with pricing. While it is true that the Switch Lite is the least popular model, it is also true that it is the model that can get down to a budget price. Getting the Lite down to $149 would give it appeal in a way that doesn't compete with Redacted, it is targeting a consumer who doesn't want to spend much on hardware, but is interested in the Switch library of games. Nintendo will not disclose plans for a price drop all the way up until they implement the price drop. Regardless if Redacted launches later this year or not, Nintendo will struggle to sell through 15 million Switch units. The majority of early Redacted adopters already own a Switch, many own more than one model. So the early Redacted buyers aren't really people who would be buying a new Switch in 2023. The untapped market for Nintendo really is the bargain bin buyer, and I think they need a SKU that is $150 or less to reach those consumers.

 

[NateDrake]

Nate doesn't know anything

I know a fair amount of stuff on this coming successor but what I know may not be enough to warrant any reporting/sharing on. I can't just say random things in this thread and give weekly updates if something changes. I need to wait for things to form a solid foundation and then weigh the potential of internal delays or plan shifts -- which always happen.

Many of the details I have now are still preliminary and subject to change before being finalized.

 

[Cuzizkool]

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

I’m just going to glide past the news, or lack there of, from the meeting and speculate on this.

 

[TomNookYankees]

The only way I can see Nintendo achieving their projected sales units while a successor releases this year is if they start doing price drops on the older models, though if the successor is around $400, like some of us believe, then a price drop at this point may be unlikely. A cross-gen period would also be vital, as it would give the Switch even more room to grow and it could help the succ be marketed as a premium product.

It would have to be either a price drop or nintendo has a feature that lets people use switches as WiiU style controllers for the successor in docked/tabletop modes.

I'm not expecting it to come out this year though. I'm team Holiday 2024 at this point.

 

[Cuzizkool]

I know a fair amount of stuff on this coming successor but what I know may not be enough to warrant any reporting/sharing on. I can't just say random things in this thread and give weekly updates if something changes. I need to wait for things to form a solid foundation and then weigh the potential of internal delays or plan shifts -- which always happen.

Many of the details I have now are still preliminary and subject to change before being finalized.

Something people might find interesting (I know I would), is if after REDACTED is announced and released, and all is said and done, you posted a video about the timeline and rumors you DID hear during the speculation period. What turned out to be true, and what turned out to be completely bogus. Just a video about an insiders journey through the speculation period of REDACTED.

 

[Hermii]

Not if Drake was cancelled as a chip for the Switch 2!

I believe that theory is extremely unlikely.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Look i get that @ItWasMeantToBe19 has a pessimistic outlook on the switch successor release date (2025 or later only makes sense if they cancelled Drake plans around 2022 and had restart from scratch), but it's not being "salty" it's being realistic. Anyone still confidently expecting nintendo to release the successor this calendar year is being unrealistic especially now that nintendo has all but confirmed to investors to not expect any new hardware announcements (or even a price drop, which to me is even crazier than no new hardware), for the current fiscal year.

There is a small, but unlikely chance that nintendo decides to announce something in either October for a spring release or announce in January for an early summer release, but right now the most likely scenario is that Nintendo goes for 2024 holiday season. And Drake being the chipset for the next hardware should no longer be considered a guarantee, althought it's still possible if the main thing holding nintendo back is that they don't have software ready for their next hardware, which would explain their unusually lacking H2 2023 schedule.

To be clear, the probabilities I personally have (which are obviously just my personal feeling and not based on any inside info or detailed calculations) for the Switch 2's release date are

2023: 1%
Jan to March 2024: 4%
April 2024 to August 2024: 10%
September 2024 to December 2024: 60%
January 2025 to March 2025: 10%
After March 2025: 15%

I don't think 2025 is super likely or anything.

 

[eye0h]

I know a fair amount of stuff on this coming successor but what I know may not be enough to warrant any reporting/sharing on.

Just a crumb sir * oliver twist gif * (react if it has streetpass....)

 

[Hermii]

I know a fair amount of stuff on this coming successor but what I know may not be enough to warrant any reporting/sharing on. I can't just say random things in this thread and give weekly updates if something changes. I need to wait for things to form a solid foundation and then weigh the potential of internal delays or plan shifts -- which always happen.

Many of the details I have now are still preliminary and subject to change before being finalized.

I have so many questions, but I know you will answer none of them.

 

[Dakhil]

I imagine if Nintendo canceled the use of Drake as the SoC of Nintendo's new hardware, Nintendo probably has to pay Nvidia cancellation fees, especially if Nintendo and Nvidia have been working on Drake for at least a couple of years. And I don't imagine the amount Nintendo has to pay Nvidia in cancellation fees is a trivial amount.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I imagine if Nintendo canceled the use of Drake as the SoC of Nintendo's new hardware, Nintendo probably has to pay Nvidia cancellation fees, especially if Nintendo and Nvidia have been working on Drake for at least a couple of years. And I don't imagine the amount Nintendo has to pay Nvidia in cancellation fees is a trivial amount.

I mean, that's a lot of assumptions and Nintendo is rumored to have cancelled work done by NVIDIA fairly recently with the 3DS.

 

[Concernt]

I’m just going to glide past the news, or lack there of, from the meeting and speculate on this.

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

To view the content, you need to Sign In or Register.

 

[KCannon]

I...... don't think that's really the case here. Their plans so far don't align with certain hypotheses, but that's about it. Som of us are trying to wrap around how Nintendo can follow through on their plans with how the Switch is currently selling and whether or not that correlates to when future hardware. Sure some people (me) have been going a little crazy, but that's just it. Otherwise, it's business as usual.

As someone who's more than used with Nintendo business fuckery, nothing about this surprises me.

Some people still regurgitate that Nintendo "learned all lessons" or "would not do this dumb thing they did in the past again", like they were not a typical conservative Japanese company. Furukawa might be more business-savvy, but that doesn't mean Nintendo is gonna be more adaptive with him at the helm. The cultural aspect is still too present and not easy to ignore.

If they think they have enough data to believe Switch still has milk to give, then it makes sense for them to prolong it. They don't seem to be in a rush.

 

[Ashee]

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

Spoiler

no pls, i prefer the ugly aspect.... the other "ugly" would mean 2024 release with luck

 

[10k]

Not if Drake was cancelled as a chip for the Switch 2!

Zero chance Drake was cancelled.

 

[Hermii]

I imagine if Nintendo canceled the use of Drake as the SoC of Nintendo's new hardware, Nintendo probably has to pay Nvidia cancellation fees, especially if Nintendo and Nvidia have been working on Drake for at least a couple of years. And I don't imagine the amount Nintendo has to pay Nvidia in cancellation fees is a trivial amount.

Not to mention, they have to make an entirely new custom SoC. Which I Imagine won't be that big of a leap over Drake anyway.

 

[Hermii]

I mean, that's a lot of assumptions and Nintendo is rumored to have cancelled work done by NVIDIA fairly recently with the 3DS.

AFAIK that was never supposed to have a custom SOC.

 

[Thugstas]

I imagine if Nintendo canceled the use of Drake as the SoC of Nintendo's new hardware, Nintendo probably has to pay Nvidia cancellation fees, especially if Nintendo and Nvidia have been working on Drake for at least a couple of years. And I don't imagine the amount Nintendo has to pay Nvidia in cancellation fees is a trivial amount.

Agree with this
No cancellation for me

 

[invwar]

Fact:
• Nintendo forecasted 15 million Switch units to be sold for this Fiscal Year.

Speculation:
• Of those 15 million, the successor could be in there;

• Nintendo will later revise the amount to include the Drake when they officially announce it

—————

My take on the speculation:
• it’s more reasonable to have included the successor in that forecast, since a newer console will eat out the original hardware’s sales


lmaoo I love this meme! Thanks for bringing it back xD


When have insiders corroborated for 2024+?


I think this is the best take of the current situation.

This looks basically like a copy of the PS4 sales:

• 2017: 37.7
• 2018: 18
• 2019: 14.4
• 2020: 8.83

 

[jaycie]

Tomodachi Life
Ring Fit Adventure 2
Animal Crossing
Xenoblade Warriors
Could someone please clue me in about these 4 particular games? I've seen rumours and speculations about the other games on this list but not on these games. Am i just missing something or is this person just making guesses? No offense if they are making guesses, i'd just like to know if something maybe went over my head.

i personally haven't heard anything about these so I think they're just guessing. I think Tomodachi and Ring Fit are fairly likely though, dunno about animal crossing