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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Reader mode
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I mean, that's a lot of assumptions and Nintendo is rumored to have cancelled work done by NVIDIA fairly recently with the 3DS.
Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure Nvidia was still in the sales pitch phase to Nintendo, if there was a signed contract someone would be on the hook. Wasn't Nvidia having trouble proving they could offer the required performance at the power draw Nintendo was demanding? Regardless, I am confident that Nvidia didn't go through all the R&D and making it all the way to the taping out process without a commitment from Nintendo. If this were to fall through, regardless who was at fault, this would likely be the end of the Nvidia and Nintendo partnership.
 
Ghostsonplanets said:
Isn't you speculating Drake was cancelled also a lot of assumptions? Also, recently? That was 14 years ago.......
Click to expand...

I'm not certain or anything that it was cancelled, I just think it's a possibility it gets cancelled or altered.

We just don't have many examples of how common it is or isn't to cancel or alter chips like this because most companies in the past weren't targeted by crypto hackers.
 
RailWays said:
Hmm, looking like a launch for FY23 might be off the menu. Hopefully we'll get some reveal information in the form of official news or leak by the end of the FY though. They seem intent on pulling a Wii and on riding the Switch till its steam has ran out before transitioning hardware if they're targeting Holiday '24.
Click to expand...
oh Nintendo it seens you has learned nothing for the flop of Wii U.
 
D36 said:
Just wanna ask, how is this report any indication that 2023 is dead because I don't get it. A lot of the reports suggesting next year are either from insiders, like the Nikkei article or dubious at best like Mochi. Not to start anything, but are we sure we aren't jumping the gun or going off of confirmation bias?
Click to expand...
the president of Nintendo himself denied the possibilty of the Switch sucessor releasing this holiday season, unless this is a fog curtain to not further decline Switch sales, typical PR for executives.
 
Giancarlo said:
the president of Nintendo himself denied the possibilty of the Switch sucessor releasing this holiday season, unless this is a fog curtain to not further decline Switch sales, typical PR for executives.
Click to expand...
I need to see proof that he actually said that because that piece of info has so far come from second hand accounts.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I mean, that's a lot of assumptions and Nintendo is rumored to have cancelled work done by NVIDIA fairly recently with the 3DS.
Click to expand...
Hermii said:
AFAIK that was never supposed to have a custom SOC.
Click to expand...
The original rumour only mentioned that Nintendo could be using a current Tegra SoC, such as the Tegra APX 2600 or the Tegra 600, or the Gen 2 Tegra SoC, which is probably the Tegra 2 going by the description of the Gen 2 Tegra SoC's CPU.

So Nintendo definitely wasn't designing a custom SoC with Nvidia for the Nintendo 3DS. A very different scenario from Drake, where Nintendo and Nvidia made customisations to Orin for Drake (e.g. using the same Tensor cores as consumer Ampere GPUs, adds File Decompression Engine (FDE) for Drake, etc.).
 
I don't plan to post here much but I do wanna say with some saying the Drake chip is gonna be outdated... what if that's the point? Perhaps when Drake was made it was far more expensive and now it's not. Nintendo likes to be cheaper console wise due to family appeal, I think anything above $449 would be disastrous for them due to this, so perhaps by waiting it's more doable to price it at $399 or even $349?
 
Insiders don’t know anything and all they pretend to know is always preliminary for some reason despite those things being known to them for YEARS.

I don’t see why we keep giving them any credit at this point.
 
Giancarlo said:
mynintendonews.com

Nintendo says no new hardware will release this fiscal year, which ends 31st March 2024

Nintendo has confirmed to investors that they have no plans to release any new Nintendo hardware this fiscal year, which ends on 31st March, 2024. It seems fairly reasonable to think that a new…
mynintendonews.com mynintendonews.com
Click to expand...
always wait for the official english transcript

Johna X said:
I don't plan to post here much but I do wanna say with some saying the Drake chip is gonna be outdated... what if that's the point? Perhaps when Drake was made it was far more expensive and now it's not. Nintendo likes to be cheaper console wise due to family appeal, I think anything above $449 would be disastrous for them due to this, so perhaps by waiting it's more doable to price it at $399 or even $349?
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architectures don't determine costs. nodes, materials, logistics, etc do, and 5nm is already old, in addition to Nvidia will be ordering a fuckload of wafers. it'll get cheaper, but not as much as you're thinking
 
This is probably a stupid question, but:

When Nintendo say that hypothetical successor sales aren't factored into their projections, do they mean:

(A) That their projections exclude the sales of any hypothetical successor; or

(B) That they've projected numbers based on a scenario where there isn't a hypothetical successor, and haven't taken into account any impact from a hypothetical successor in the projected numbers?

I'm asking because they mean different things, and have different implications in terms of what we can (and can't) read into the numbers.

(I recognise that this may need to wait for the official published q&a and be beyond what we can work out from second hand reports.)
 
Giancarlo said:
mynintendonews.com

Nintendo says no new hardware will release this fiscal year, which ends 31st March 2024

Nintendo has confirmed to investors that they have no plans to release any new Nintendo hardware this fiscal year, which ends on 31st March, 2024. It seems fairly reasonable to think that a new…
mynintendonews.com mynintendonews.com
Click to expand...

This is coming from a quote from an analyst in Japan, not Nintendo. The actual quote from Nintendo says that no new hardware is part of the 15 million sales goal. Furukawa even admits selling this many Switch units is a stretch. These are not the comments of a president trying to instill confidence that Switch is still their focus. He is basically telling everyone upfront that they "Hope" to sell 15 million, but even they doubt they can sell 15 million. None of this infers anything regarding new hardware. I do not see 2023 being any less likely than it was yesterday. Need to wait for the Q&A transcript to see if anything of substance was really said on the subject.
 
snorkellingfish said:
This is probably a stupid question, but:

When Nintendo say that hypothetical successor sales aren't factored into their projections, do they mean:

(A) That their projections exclude the sales of any hypothetical successor; or

(B) That they've projected numbers based on a scenario where there isn't a hypothetical successor, and haven't taken into account any impact from a hypothetical successor in the projected numbers?

I'm asking because they mean different things, and have different implications in terms of what we can (and can't) read into the numbers.

(I recognise that this may need to wait for the official published q&a and be beyond what we can work out from second hand reports.)
Click to expand...
Probably the former.
 
Giancarlo said:
oh Nintendo it seens you has learned nothing for the flop of Wii U.
Click to expand...

Late release by itself doesn't guarantee the same fate as the WiiU. WiiU had a bunch of factors leading to its demise, mainly the lack of system seller first party games within the first year and the lack of true portability meant that it was treated as an underpowered home console (whereas the switch had benefit of being seen as a handheld so not being PS4/XBO performance was more acceptable).
 
I like how we pretend that we know whats going on, then something happens so we craft a new story to fit a new narrative and go back to pretending like the new story is the same story we been telling all along.

someone should teach a human psychology class based on examples from this thread

The smarter we are, the more clever and compelling the story
 
Goodtwin said:
This is coming from a quote from an analyst in Japan, not Nintendo. The actual quote from Nintendo says that no new hardware is part of the 15 million sales goal. Furukawa even admits selling this many Switch units is a stretch. These are not the comments of a president trying to instill confidence that Switch is still their focus. He is basically telling everyone upfront that they "Hope" to sell 15 million, but even they doubt they can sell 15 million. None of this infers anything regarding new hardware. I do not see 2023 being any less likely than it was yesterday. Need to wait for the Q&A transcript to see if anything of substance was really said on the subject.
Click to expand...
Indeed. The way they refer to where they are with Switch as « uncharted territory » and how they downplay the 15m target, unsure if they can reach it, is not how you reassure investors.

To me, something is happening and whether or not it releases this year, Nintendo has actively moved on from Switch and we will soon be sure of what’s happening.
 
KarmaDesires said:
I don't see how Nintendo is repeating the same mistake as with the Wii-Wii U transition unless you believe the release timing was wrong and not the lack of (mass market) appealing software back then.
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It was a culmination of a few things and I’m only going to comment on the Wii to Wii U:

At the end years (plural) the Wii was still getting first party games, however they weren’t big games or big enough to make a difference. People can argue “oh but I bought the xenoblades and the donkey kongs and the skyward swords, etc” which hit during the final years. But, the general audience did not care for those in a significant way to matter.

I looked through the Wikipedia list, and what released in 2010 and 2011 of note is this from Nintendo and l:

Super Mario Galaxy 2
Metroid Other M
Super Mario All-Stars
Kirby’s Epic Yarn
PokePark Wii: Pikachu’s Adventure
Donkey Kong Country Returns
Wii Party

There was also a version of Golden Eye 007 released
(2010)

Mario Sports Mix
Kirby’s Return to Dreamland
Mario & Sonic at the 2012 Olympic Games
The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword

They also had Fortune Street that had Mario characters in it developed by SE

(2011)

I only focused on the first party because, to many, the Nintendo system is driven by the first party and the third party is simply a bonus. It is not the draw, it is not the crown jewel. It is a bonus and nothing more. There’s a significantly higher percentage of a user base from Nintendo that would buy a new Mario than to buy say, a Dragon quest. There’s a significantly higher percentage of people that would get a new Zelda than to get any game from level 5 these days.

Simply put, the first party is what makes a Nintendo system otherwise it has nothing to draw a crowd in. Third parties are simply a bonus, an extra feather in a cap, to have an an option for someone or to be a definite purchase for others.


So, when people are comparing the Wii to Wii U to the Nintendo Switch to the eventual Nintendo Switch-Next, I think they are comparing the lack of notable first party on the systems to carry out the next year and a half. Nintendo, so far, hasn’t announced anything but people are confident they’ll have a whole slew of titles to pan out the next year at least and another direct later to pan out more titles to fill the switch up before the next system launches.

Though, my own criticism of this is that filing the switch with too much leaves the switch 2 vulnerable for games. People will point to third parties, but again, people don’t buy the system for third parties mainly. They buy it for first parties and third parties are simply a bonus.



One of the issues with the Wii U early years was the droughts, the really bad droughts besides unappealing software, it was barren. It had its share of third parties which left. But those didn’t save the system.


On top of that, people are expecting a Nintendo to do even a light cross-generation at the minimum, unless Nintendo has a whole catalog of new software titles to sell on not only the switch that they worked three times over anyone else in this industry to create, the Nintendo switch 2 will have no notable or any realistic period of cross gen. Why? Because there’s literally not going to be enough titles and enough manpower to actually deliver that if they want to just deliver a bunch of games for Nintendo switch right before a successor launches.


I know they have been expanding for the past couple of years, however, Nintendo is not keen on doing any acquisitions of any notable degree for the here and now, they also have not expanded significantly enough to actually facilitate this. The fruits of that current expansion they’ve been doing in-house will be seen and felt by 2028 which is basically the midpoint of a Nintendo switch 2 lifecycle.


There’s also the other aspect that I have not mentioned here at all, that’s Nintendo 3DS. The 3DS robbed a lot of resources away from other systems, and caused the death of two whole consuls, technically three, but that’s expected of the DS systems. Henceforth I’m not including it.

The Nintendo Switch can, emphasis on the word can as a possibility not a guarantee, end up being the Nintendo 3DS to the Nintendo Wii, and Nintendo Wii U of this situation, the Ninte do Switch-Next. What do I mean by that? It should be self-explanatory, but if it was not clear enough, that just means it could mean that the Nintendo Switch might end up being a system that robs the Nintendo switch 2 of necessary resources especially for helping it pad out its beginning years to give consumers a reason for why they should even bother buying or purchasing this new system.


Otherwise they will continue staying with their Nintendo switch, and have no reason to buy a new system because a lot of titles are still hitting the Nintendo switch.


It’s more about balance, than anything. If they push too much in one direction, they get a very filled system but, a barren new one. If they push too much in the the other direction, the effectively kill the current system of any notable legs and leave it dry but have a plentiful system to sell off to you.
 
Goodtwin said:
This is coming from a quote from an analyst in Japan, not Nintendo. The actual quote from Nintendo says that no new hardware is part of the 15 million sales goal. Furukawa even admits selling this many Switch units is a stretch. These are not the comments of a president trying to instill confidence that Switch is still their focus. He is basically telling everyone upfront that they "Hope" to sell 15 million, but even they doubt they can sell 15 million. None of this infers anything regarding new hardware. I do not see 2023 being any less likely than it was yesterday. Need to wait for the Q&A transcript to see if anything of substance was really said on the subject.
Click to expand...
Deep inhale


B a s e d
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
It was a culmination of a few things and I’m only going to comment on the Wii to Wii U:

At the end years (plural) the Wii was still getting first party games, however they weren’t big games or big enough to make a difference. People can argue “oh but I bought the xenoblades and the donkey kongs and the skyward swords, etc” which hit during the final years. But, the general audience did not care for those in a significant way to matter.

I looked through the Wikipedia list, and what released in 2010 and 2011 of note is this from Nintendo and l:

Super Mario Galaxy 2
Metroid Other M
Super Mario All-Stars
Kirby’s Epic Yarn
PokePark Wii: Pikachu’s Adventure
Donkey Kong Country Returns
Wii Party

There was also a version of Golden Eye 007 released
(2010)

Mario Sports Mix
Kirby’s Return to Dreamland
Mario & Sonic at the 2012 Olympic Games
The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword

They also had Fortune Street that had Mario characters in it developed by SE

(2011)

I only focused on the first party because, to many, the Nintendo system is driven by the first party and the third party is simply a bonus. It is not the draw, it is not the crown jewel. It is a bonus and nothing more. There’s a significantly higher percentage of a user base from Nintendo that would buy a new Mario than to buy say, a Dragon quest. There’s a significantly higher percentage of people that would get a new Zelda than to get any game from level 5 these days.

Simply put, the first party is what makes a Nintendo system otherwise it has nothing to draw a crowd in. Third parties are simply a bonus, an extra feather in a cap, to have an an option for someone or to be a definite purchase for others.


So, when people are comparing the Wii to Wii U to the Nintendo Switch to the eventual Nintendo Switch-Next, I think they are comparing the lack of notable first party on the systems to carry out the next year and a half. Nintendo, so far, hasn’t announced anything but people are confident they’ll have a whole slew of titles to pan out the next year at least and another direct later to pan out more titles to fill the switch up before the next system launches.

Though, my own criticism of this is that filing the switch with too much leaves the switch 2 vulnerable for games. People will point to third parties, but again, people don’t buy the system for third parties mainly. They buy it for first parties and third parties are simply a bonus.



One of the issues with the Wii U early years was the droughts, the really bad droughts besides unappealing software, it was barren. It had its share of third parties which left. But those didn’t save the system.


On top of that, people are expecting a Nintendo to do even a light cross-generation at the minimum, unless Nintendo has a whole catalog of new software titles to sell on not only the switch that they worked three times over anyone else in this industry to create, the Nintendo switch 2 will have no notable or any realistic period of cross gen. Why? Because there’s literally not going to be enough titles and enough manpower to actually deliver that if they want to just deliver a bunch of games for Nintendo switch right before a successor launches.


I know they have been expanding for the past couple of years, however, Nintendo is not keen on doing any acquisitions of any notable degree for the here and now, they also have not expanded significantly enough to actually facilitate this. The fruits of that current expansion they’ve been doing in-house will be seen and felt by 2028 which is basically the midpoint of a Nintendo switch 2 lifecycle.


There’s also the other aspect that I have not mentioned here at all, that’s Nintendo 3DS. The 3DS robbed a lot of resources away from other systems, and caused the death of two whole consuls, technically three, but that’s expected of the DS systems. Henceforth I’m not including it.

The Nintendo Switch can, emphasis on the word can as a possibility not a guarantee, end up being the Nintendo 3DS to the Nintendo Wii, and Nintendo Wii U of this situation, the Ninte do Switch-Next. What do I mean by that? It should be self-explanatory, but if it was not clear enough, that just means it could mean that the Nintendo Switch might end up being a system that robs the Nintendo switch 2 of necessary resources especially for helping it pad out its beginning years to give consumers a reason for why they should even bother buying or purchasing this new system.


Otherwise they will continue staying with their Nintendo switch, and have no reason to buy a new system because a lot of titles are still hitting the Nintendo switch.


It’s more about balance, than anything. If they push too much in one direction, they get a very filled system but, a barren new one. If they push too much in the the other direction, the effectively kill the current system of any notable legs and leave it dry but have a plentiful system to sell off to you.
Click to expand...
this is a very complicated situation, Nintendo must be facing right now, how to do a smooth transition without kiling Switch and at the same time giving good/excelent games for both consoles, as you put brilantly this expansion on Nintendo internal studios, will be felt only be 2028.
 
Semi Lazy Gamer said:
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Cuzizkool said:
I’m just going to glide past the news, or lack there of, from the meeting and speculate on this.

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
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Concernt said:
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
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KCannon said:
The cultural aspect is still too present and not easy to ignore.
Click to expand...
Organizational Behavior is a thing, so true. The higher ups may change, but the employees are the same.

Concernt said:
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
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I only have 3crs in Supply Chain Management, but how fast can these hurdles be fixed? If anything, the hypothetical June reveal can be in July, then. After Pikmin.
 
KCannon said:
Some people still regurgitate that Nintendo "learned all lessons" or "would not do this dumb thing they did in the past again", like they were not a typical conservative Japanese company.
Click to expand...
I don't know. Nintendo themselves have admitted some of the fumbles they made with the Wii U (like few compelling games at launch, many game droughts, confusing marketing, paltry tools for third-party developers). People say "they've learned all their lessons" because of the big course-correction on those problems for the Switch.

They ain't perfect (they're making some brand-new mistakes right now), but even the most conservative of companies must be aware of previous gaffes like the Wii-to-Wii U transition. Whether they have a good plan to circumvent it remains to be seen.
 
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so let me get this straight, do people really believe that nintendo won't do a direct in june plus release the successor no earlier than 2024 just because some idiot says so?
I know Nintendo does weird things but this crosses the line.
 
A way Nintendo can keep the Switch going until fall 2024

New Games
Pikmin 4
Tomodachi Life sequel
Ring Fit Adventure 2 or Switch Fit (Wii Fit successor)
Xenoblade Warriors or Mushroom Kingdom Warriors
Donkey Kong gamw
New 2D Mario
Pokémon Lets Go 2 Johto
Mario and Sonic at the Olympics sequel
Kid Icarus Uprising sequel
Metroid Prime 4

DLC
Pokémon Scarlet and Violet Expansion Pass
Zelda TotK DLC
Switch Sports Expansion Pass (Boxing, Baseball, Archery etc)
Splatoon 3 DLC
Mario Kart 8 Booster Pack

Ports
Xenoblade X
Pushmo World
Detective Pikachu
Paper Mario TTYD or Color Splash
Metroid Prime 2 Remastered
F Zero GX Online
Yoshi's Wooly World + Epic Yarn double pack
Zelda Wind Waker + Twilight Princess
Mario 3D All-stars Re-release with Galaxy 2 and 3D Land (original owners can upgrade)
 
Angel Whispers said:
False equivalence there, as there are huge differences between giving the games press the brush-off and taking questions from investors. They would be breaking the law to tell the latter lies, and it’s wild that some people believe they would do this, anyway, without consequence.
Click to expand...
They only said the forecast was about Nintendo Switch. Not any potential other console, so that's not a lie.
 
.
Goodtwin said:
This is coming from a quote from an analyst in Japan, not Nintendo. The actual quote from Nintendo says that no new hardware is part of the 15 million sales goal. Furukawa even admits selling this many Switch units is a stretch. These are not the comments of a president trying to instill confidence that Switch is still their focus. He is basically telling everyone upfront that they "Hope" to sell 15 million, but even they doubt they can sell 15 million. None of this infers anything regarding new hardware. I do not see 2023 being any less likely than it was yesterday. Need to wait for the Q&A transcript to see if anything of substance was really said on the subject.
Click to expand...

It’s easy to read what we want from the little we have.

1. They said it’s a “stretch” goal, meaning 14 or even 13 million is possible. Nintendo had a history of exceeding their targets early generation for Switch, but that’s shifted in the last couple years. There’s been a couple misses I think, and in those cases they weren’t even saying the goal was a “stretch”. This is surprisingly candid and negative.

2. They also said that they had no plans to reduce the price (not sure if this was the actual quote), but what else can they say on this topic? They definitely shouldn’t need to admit they’ll be making price cuts in the year of head.

3. Lastly, we’ve yet to see them say new hardware was not coming. Until we see an exact quote, I’m only assuming it’s not included in the sales forecast, not that it doesn’t exist.

It’s a lot easier to rationalize a 13 million target, in the same year that they launch their biggest game ever, followed by a price cut, even if new hardware does it. And new hardware hitting, but not disclosed, is reason enough to call the 15M a stretch.

Not sure I personally buy any of what I’m saying above, just that it’s not a hard conclusion to reach.
 
ziggyrivers said:
I was just gonna post something similar:



This is Nintendo’s third best year. They have enough incentives to ride the Switch out more. Especially since the OLED is steadily selling still. I think a successor, if not revealed in June, could come 12-18 months from now
Click to expand...

That ain’t hitting until the holiday. There’s no benefit of doing this in Q1 FY. That’s nonsensical. Rearrange that to 18 months, not 12 months.
 
0
Giancarlo said:
mynintendonews.com

Nintendo says no new hardware will release this fiscal year, which ends 31st March 2024

Nintendo has confirmed to investors that they have no plans to release any new Nintendo hardware this fiscal year, which ends on 31st March, 2024. It seems fairly reasonable to think that a new…
mynintendonews.com mynintendonews.com
Click to expand...

Once again not trying to pile on,

But the journey that headline took is:

Mynintendonews writing an article based on a VGC article which is based on a Bloomberg article (which I can no longer view) but is based on Nintendo's financial reports with additional comments by Nintendo's President Shuntaro Furukawa.

But the only relevant Drake related quote I can find by Furukawa is from the Japanese version of the article where it reads: "regarding next-generation consoles, he said, "We are constantly developing new hardware, but I have nothing to say at this time."

The only line in the VGC article that references a relevant Furukawa quote reads: "According to Bloomberg, Furukawa added that no new or upgraded hardware is factored into Nintendo’s annual forecast".

The fact that every publication adds in a comment by their pet analyst/commentator doesn't help to clarify anything, same with very assumptive headlines.

As usual, this will likely be sorted out when the official transcript is released. But who wants to wait for that?

This isn't intended as a last grasp of copium for Team23 or whatever, more along the lines of: if your horses can still be held, hold them. And look closelier at most things you read on the internet.
 
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ReddDreadtheLead said:
...
Why? Because there’s literally not going to be enough titles and enough manpower to actually deliver that if they want to just deliver a bunch of games for Nintendo switch right before a successor launches.
...
Click to expand...
Giancarlo said:
this is a very complicated situation, Nintendo must be facing right now, how to do a smooth transition without kiling Switch and at the same time giving good/excelent games for both consoles, as you put brilantly this expansion on Nintendo internal studios, will be felt only be 2028.
Click to expand...

I agree Nintendo was divided in the Wii U/3DS era. Any 3DS game wouldn't look good on Wii U without a major overhaul.
But we're not there anymore.

Nintendo has been publishing 12-20 titles every year in the Switch era and will continue to do so. They probably have a very good outline of major titles for the next 5 years. They have commissioned their development, either internally or through external teams.

They probably have 20-30 double-A titles currently in full production. Some may release this year, some in 3 years. They will use those to fill gaps in the schedule, sitting on them for years if need be, even if they have to patch them for newer hardware.

They've been developing games for over 40 years. They know what a software cycle is. Whatever lineup the next hardware has was planned half a decade ago. Whatever lineup the Switch 3 will have is being outlined right now.

It's on a game-by-game basis from now on. Does your game need updated hardware to fully realize your vision? Make it Switch 2 exclusive. Did you start development targeting the OG Switch? Keep going and make use of that 125+M install base, while still running better on new hardware.

Nintendo is looking way ahead. And judging by the Switch lineup in these 7 years, they've been doing so for more than a decade.
 
karmitt said:
Have your assumptions of late 2024+ changed (regardless of the direction - earlier / later)? Fairly certain that’s what you last mentioned, but it was phrased as personal speculation.
Click to expand...

No change. If anything, I'm more confident in it.

Giancarlo said:
will Metroid Prime 4 be the final first party game for Switch, closing the Switch era? or is gonna be a cross-gen game like BOTW?
Click to expand...
I'm only aware of Prime 4 as a Switch title. I do anticipate Nintendo will publish games on Switch after Prime 4 releases.
 
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