• Hey everyone, staff have documented a list of banned content and subject matter that we feel are not consistent with site values, and don't make sense to host discussion of on Famiboards. This list (and the relevant reasoning per item) is viewable here.
  • Do you have audio editing experience and want to help out with the Famiboards Discussion Club Podcast? If so, we're looking for help and would love to have you on the team! Just let us know in the Podcast Thread if you are interested!

StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Reader mode
Yeah, this forecast and the language they use really strongly suggests no Switch 2 this fiscal year.

A release in April to August 2024 is possible but it just really hasn't been done very much at all before. Every game console except two has originally launched between September and March. My expectations currently are "Between September 2024 and March 2025" right now though "Between September 2025 and November 2025" is possible.

(Also, I do think people need to seriously consider the possibility that Drake was just cancelled fairly late into development due to some issues that Nintendo considered a deal breaker and that we'll be looking at a very different chip for the Switch 2)
 
Nintendo should have no problem getting through this fiscal year. I expect Zelda and whatever they announce for the rest of the year to be enough to keep them afloat. I currently expect a late January/early Feb 2024 announcement for the new system with a May/June launch. 15 million units for your 7th year is great imo. If 2024 or later means we get a better system then i'm all for it.
 
Mr.Gamerson said:
Nintendo should have no problem getting through this fiscal year. I expect Zelda and whatever they announce for the rest of the year to be enough to keep them afloat. I currently expect a late January/early Feb 2024 announcement for the new system with a May/June launch. 15 million units for your 7th year is great imo.
Click to expand...

February is definitely the most likely announcement time, but it's probably going to be February announcement, November release.
 
Bosintang said:
When the wise shows the timeline, the less wise focuses on the lack of E3. Or something like that.
I think that Nintendo will casually mention the console soon, around June or July.
Click to expand...
Is there a difference between cheekiness and folly ;)
Actually I’ve been meaning to ask you how you calculated the distribution of probability curve you mentioned last month. Did you just settle on H1 2024 as a mid point between late 2023 and late 2024, or did you crunch some numbers together?
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Yeah, this forecast and the language they use really strongly suggests no Switch 2 this fiscal year.

A release in April to August 2024 is possible but it just really hasn't been done very much at all before. Every game console except two has originally launched between September and March. My expectations currently are "Between September 2024 and March 2025" right now though "Between September 2025 and November 2025" is possible.

(Also, I do think people need to seriously consider the possibility that Drake was just cancelled fairly late into development due to some issues that Nintendo considered a deal breaker and that we'll be looking at a very different chip for the Switch 2)
Click to expand...
The language does not strongly suggest anything. It is specifically constructed not to do so.
 
ziggyrivers said:
Will we seriously have a month of June with no first party game?
Click to expand...
One suspects that we'll hear about the Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Booster Course Pass (Wave 5) and Pokémon Scarlet & Violet DLC in June. Since the Switch's launch, Nintendo has released content at a rate of one publication per month (a rate of, not necessarily a publication in every month). A "fallow" month is possible because they might want LOZ: TOTK to have more time in the spotlight. The same was true for BOTW, as Mario Kart 8 Deluxe released around 8 weeks (closer to 2 months) after it. It isn't the big deal some think it is. In the second half of the year, we could have two publications drop in one month. There's no cause for panic.
 


a comparison of SER on and off on a 4080. ~20% improvement when gpu limited. I'm more curious how it helps when going down the stack.
 
Erathix said:
I'm getting one for third party support reasons. Frankly, Switch 2 is already outdated and underpowered when it does release as it cannot match even the ROG Ally which is coming soon. The ROG Ally based on the Z1 Extreme is already a Switch 2.75 (I will say 3 when it can go above 10TFLOPS, though come to think of it Switch 3 could also somehow fall behind that too, I hope not) when going full power, battery draining? Yes but if you want to push it you have the option to, furthermore I have the option for upscaling and resolution adjustments. VRR is a game changer on a handheld device, I use VRR frequently for PS5 and games that I hear complaints over frame rate or stutter issues just do not affect me, VRR on my TV is so good that I have always had smooth frames and no judder.

That to me is what I was waiting for, the Steam Deck didn't convince me yet as I was waiting for the inevitable successors that would take what they did and make it more convenient (running on Windows) and affordable (leaked prices are definitely in my ball-park compared to all the others on the market) and more powerful (definitely a tick from everything I have seen run on it so far.)

Nintendo will always be for my exclusives though I am sad by how behind they really are when it comes to tech. This should've been out sooner frankly, they have dragged this out far too long and I know every argument out there is it's Nintendo, they make ridiculous money and no competitor will come close to their market share. That isn't the point. To me the point is there are handhelds evolving in this space at a rate that I feel Nintendo isn't bothering to match and making case studies in how fast this space is developing, which to me makes my interest in Switch diminish as a result because it no longer is this mind-blowing piece of tech I once saw it as, it is now archaic and even the Switch 2 is becoming something I'm losing excitement over the more it drags out and will only pick up for exclusives rather than a main console I was once considering back when the handheld space felt more limited.
Click to expand...
AMD claimed the AMD Z1 Extreme has up to 8.6 TFLOPS of performance, not ≥10 TFLOPS.

But there are asterisks for the up to 8.6 TFLOPS of performance claim:
Anyway, I should hope Asus allows me to run the Asus ROG Ally at whatever configuration I choose since the Asus ROG Ally is a handheld PC.

Also, if the Steam Deck is any indication, I don't think any company that plans on releasing a hybrid console that's running on an OS other than Microsoft Windows is going to allow the SoC to run at a TDP >15 W for reasons related to thermals, battery life, and cost.
MisterBono said:
Nate did warn us. We chose not to believe :(
Click to expand...
NateDrake has also made other comments not related to the launch window that people find dubious. One example is that NateDrake seems to have implied that a mid-gen refresh that was planned by Nintendo, but is now cancelled, was planned to be equipped with Drake (see the original comment NateDrake made when Alovon11 responded), which I find dubious for the reasons Thraktor mentioned.
 
Kingpin Rogers said:
I'd be pretty happy if T239 was cancelled tbh and we got Switch 2 in like 2025 or 2026 but more powerful than anything the leaks pointed to.
Click to expand...
If we're getting late 2024 or 2025-2026 or something then we're probably at least looking at a better node than expected.
 
Bonejack said:
If they talk so early about ReDraketed, they're not going to hit that forecast even with ReDraketed releasing at that timeframe.
Click to expand...

D36 said:
Exactly
Click to expand...
I think you both are wrong. They can hit easy that forecast with a price cut of current switch + preorders start on holidays for the Next.

I believe they will release it in the first half of 2024 because, right now, there are nothing to show for release exclusive on current model. They will hold everything they can to make a big debut in 2024. That is why they don't announce nothing to second half of 2023 until now. And they can't let all 2024 without release nothing new. So, the best move right now is release switch 2 on March 2024 or early and announce it exist as early as June of current year.

Maybe these 15M are something like 8 from current gen and 7 for next gen switch. We don't know.
 
0
Angel Whispers said:
One suspects that we'll hear about the Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Booster Course Pass (Wave 5) and Pokémon Scarlet & Violet DLC in June. Since the Switch's launch, Nintendo has released content at a rate of one publication per month (a rate of, not necessarily a publication in every month). A "fallow" month is possible because they might want LOZ: TOTK to have more time in the spotlight. The same was true for BOTW, as Mario Kart 8 Deluxe released around 8 weeks (closer to 2 months) after it. It isn't the big deal some think it is. In the second half of the year, we could have two publications drop in one month. There's no cause for panic.
Click to expand...
Good points. Thanks for the clarification!

Kingpin Rogers said:
I'd be pretty happy if T239 was cancelled tbh and we got Switch 2 in like 2025 or 2026 but more powerful than anything the leaks pointed to.
Click to expand...
Is it unprecedented for a chip to have been made, cancelled and then the company procures a new one?
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
(Also, I do think people need to seriously consider the possibility that Drake was just cancelled fairly late into development due to some issues that Nintendo considered a deal breaker and that we'll be looking at a very different chip for the Switch 2)
Click to expand...

That's what I'm starting to think as well. Lines up with what Nate said about cancelled hardware. I would just hope that if it's not releasing until 2025 then it's performance is much closer to PS4Pro/XSS in handheld mode not just docked mode.
 
0
Gerald said:
Click to expand...

This is a nice reminder that context matters, and it gives it away in that tweet, but even more so when you read the article.

None of those words came from Nintendo. It came from a source they claim is "close to" but not at, Nintendo. Whatever that means. Nintendo didn't actually comment on anything or make any suggestions one way or another. You can argue their forecast of 15m switches suggests no new hardware - and that may well be. But in addition, they could consider Switch 2 as PART of the switch family of systems. Predicting only a 2m drop off from last fiscal year without a massive seller like S and V at the end of the year is bold to say the least. Point is, if they are still making a next generation SWITCH, they could just be combining all the numbers together for overall "family of Switch" sales this year.

Nintendo though really didn't word things one way or another to suggest any of their plans. Sure, teh Q and A may shed a small bit of a light, but unless in that Q and A you see Furukawa say "no new hardware this fiscal year", but instead he dances around the question... yeah. I don't think anything happened last night to suggest one thing or another.
 
Pokemaniac said:
If they had already announced it, sure. Nintendo doesn't usually talk about stuff that hasn't already been announced at these meetings, though.
Click to expand...

Yeah, and the extremely strong Switch projection (despite the Switch OLED being the main sales driver and this being obviously massively affected if the Switch 2 releases this fiscal year) also doesn't mean anything, sure, whatever.
 
Dakhil said:
AMD claimed the AMD Z1 Extreme has up to 8.6 TFLOPS of performance, not ≥10 TFLOPS.

But there are asterisks for the up to 8.6 TFLOPS of performance claim:
Anyway, I should hope Asus allows me to run the Asus ROG Ally at whatever configuration I choose since the Asus ROG Ally is a handheld PC.

Also, if the Steam Deck is any indication, I don't think any company that plans on releasing a hybrid console that's running on an OS other than Microsoft Windows is going to allow the SoC to run at a TDP >15 W for reasons related to thermals, battery life, and cost.

NateDrake has also made other comments not related to the launch window that people find dubious. One example is that NateDrake seems to have implied that a mid-gen refresh that was planned by Nintendo, but is now cancelled, was planned to be equipped with Drake (see the original comment NateDrake made when Alovon11 responded), which I find dubious for the reasons Thraktor mentioned.
Click to expand...
i think if mid fresh hadn't been canceled then we'd just have a worse node, now TSMC 4nm is possible, i don't think they would use another SoC, next Tegra Thor would be in 2025
 
Dakhil said:
NateDrake has also made other comments not related to the launch window that people find dubious. One example is that NateDrake seems to have implied that a mid-gen refresh that was planned by Nintendo, but is now cancelled, was planned to be equipped with Drake (see the original comment NateDrake made when Alovon11 responded), which I find dubious for the reasons Thraktor mentioned.
Click to expand...
Wasn't there a rumor back in 2020 that both Nintendo and Nvidia were testing a 7nm Tegra X1?
 
Look over there said:
Ooh, nice slide in prices.
For comparison, in early 2019, 256 GB of UFS 3.0 would've cost in the mid to high 20's USD (data point 1 and 2). So, fast forward through the pandemic hike and then the start of the post-pandemic slump, you get a minor version update and half the size for ~57-68% of the price. Not bad at all, considering that as you climb up in size, the price/GB should be going downward.

Yea, it's hard to find 32 GB eMMC in 2017. Last I looked, I saw ~$7 for 64 GB in the end of 2018, here. I don't remember whether 2017-2018 was in the downward trend or upward trend of the flash cycle though :unsure:
Click to expand...
One aspect I didn't consider is that UFS 3+ should be more power efficient than UFS 2, as it operates at 2.5V/1.2V rather than 3.3V/1.8V. On Micron's UFS 3.1 page, in footnote 2, they specify active power draw at 960mW. On another page, which appears to be referring to UFS 2.1, they specify active power draw as being 70% lower than their 2450 SSD. The spec sheet for the 2450 lists a max active power draw of 5.5W, which would put their UFS 2.1 at 1.65W. Considering they're advertising 1,890MB/s for their UFS 3.1 modules, with UFS 2.1 maxing out at around 1,000MB/s, that's a very substantial increase in power efficiency, on the order of 3x improvement in bandwidth per W.

Edit: Interestingly, Samsung claims that their UFS 4.0 consumes even less power. In this press release, they claim "Samsung’s new UFS 4.0 will deliver a sequential read speed of up to 6.0 MB/s per milliampere (mA), representing a 46-percent improvement over UFS 3.1". With claimed read speeds up to 4,200MB/s, that comes out to just 920mW by my reckoning. That's extremely efficient, when you consider that the most efficient NVMe drives in a similar speed bracket peak at around 3.7W.
 
Last edited:
Kingpin Rogers said:
I'd be pretty happy if T239 was cancelled tbh and we got Switch 2 in like 2025 or 2026 but more powerful than anything the leaks pointed to.
Click to expand...
I don't know if Nintendo can choose a significantly better Arm based SoC from Nvidia than T239 in 2025/2026 for the reasons I've explained below.
Dakhil said:
So far, based on Geekerwan's reviews (here and here), the Armv9 CPUs have worse performance per watt in comparison to the Cortex-A78 at lower watts.
ocR1sOg.png

KFEWW3v.png


And Ada Lovelace is practically not that different from Ampere from a GPU architecture standpoint. And Thor, the latest Arm based SoC from Nvidia, has a GPU based on Ada Lovelace, and is planned for release in 2025. So Drake's still the best Arm based SoC from Nvidia Nintendo could use in late 2024/early 2025.
Click to expand...
Codename_Steam said:
Wasn't there a rumor back in 2020 that both Nintendo and Nvidia were testing a 7nm Tegra X1?
Click to expand...
I believe so. But that rumour came from a dubious source.
 
SpaceGodzilla said:
Nintendo would be insane to expect to hit there 15m switch goal with metroid as there big holiday game, I'm expecting 2d mario to ride off the movie hype
Click to expand...
I need a new 2D Mario so bad. Almost as much as Prime 4. Some kind of reimagining of 2D Mario would be huge. Thinking something like Tropical Freeze, with creative set pieces, clever leveldesign, expressive character designs and variety of gameplay while still staying true to the core gameplay.

Also, please add online.
 
NintendoPrime said:
but instead he dances around the question... yeah. I don't think anything happened last night to suggest one thing or another.
Click to expand...
Hasn’t he outright denied hardware revisions before, tho?

He did say that he has no announcements to make at the current moment. But that can be interpreted in any way

And lol, I’m sub’d in your YouTube xD

ITSMILNER said:
Don’t know about y’all but I’m quite excited by the prospect that the next 8-10 months of Switch could be kept going by remasters of GC and Wii classics!
Click to expand...

I’m excited as well! I’d like an Explorers of the Sky remake! Even tho that’s NDS hahaahahah
 
Gerald said:
i think if mid fresh hadn't been canceled then we'd just have a worse node, now TSMC 4nm is possible, i don't think they would use another SoC, next Tegra Thor would be in 2025
Click to expand...
Thraktor found some pretty compelling evidence that Nintendo could have initially planned to release the OLED model as a mid-gen refresh. And the OLED model still uses the Tegra X1+ for the SoC.

So I don't really think Nintendo's plan to release a mid-gen refresh has really any bearing on which process node Nintendo and Nvidia plan to use to fabricate Drake, but rather when Nintendo and Nvidia decide to tape out Drake.
 
Keviaar said:
I need a new 2D Mario so bad. Almost as much as Prime 4. Some kind of reimagining of 2D Mario would be huge. Thinking something like Tropical Freeze, with creative set pieces, clever leveldesign, expressive character designs and variety of gameplay while still staying true to the core gameplay.

Also, please add online.
Click to expand...
I'd rather have a 3D Donkey Kong...
 
Dakhil said:
I don't know if Nintendo can choose a significantly better Arm based SoC from Nvidia than T239 in 2025/2026 for the reasons I've explained below.


I believe so. But that rumour came from a dubious source.
Click to expand...

You don't need do massively better in these areas to have a much stronger machine than Drake.

eg, you could build a Switch 2 with 512 GBs of UFS 4.0 memory (and maybe save enough electricity you could stream during gameplay at 1 GB/s), 2x6GB LPDDR5X RAM, and have the chip have DLSS 4.0 support (assuming DLSS 4.0 can do boosts from 30 FPS to 60 FPS well, which I think is very possible and likely to happen).

A Switch 2 that can frame generate from 30 FPS to 60 FPS and stream assets at 1 GB/s would be a pretty big boost imo.
 
The only prediction that can be accurately assessed at this point is the prediction that today was going to be chaos.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the only bit of information that we got from Nintendo, that was even related to new hardware, is that new/upgraded hardware was not factored into their fiscal year forecast. I've seen various people and media outlets running with that and saying that they're saying that means no new hardware this fiscal year, and that's definitely not what was said. Nintendo words things very carefully, they always have.

Fiscal year results are not the place to announce a new console, and there's almost nothing we can really say. We got some new rumors from Nikkei, but remember that Nikkei wasn't exactly on the money about Switch revisions in years previous either.

Until the second half of this year is revealed, anything is still up in the air. Until we details about things through the rest of the fiscal year, nothing is ruled out for the fiscal year. Everyone just needs to calm down a little bit. Panic Button does not need to be developing this thread.
 
ITSMILNER said:
Is there concern of the tech of this device being quite old if it comes late 2024? Or will modern features like DLSS mean negate that somewhat?
Click to expand...
For first Dakhil explain that, for second next tegra called Thor will be relased sometimes in 2025, T239 Drake its the best and only one option, thanks to potential Late 2024/Early 2025 window TSMC 4nm its very possible and that can give us good clocks
 
Boxle said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the only bit of information that we got from Nintendo, that was even related to new hardware, is that new/upgraded hardware was not factored into their fiscal year forecast. I've seen various people and media outlets running with that and saying that they're saying that means no new hardware this fiscal year, and that's definitely not what was said. Nintendo words things very carefully, they always have.
Click to expand...
That's what it seems like, should be clearer with the transcripts.
 
welp, that sucks. holiday 23 seemed to make the most sense so this is...interesting. a little worrying? maybe, but I'll stay optimistic. just praying that 3D Mario doesn't get revealed in the next 12 months for Switch 1 😵‍💫 I need that bad boy on Switch 2 with glorious RTX

also, did Nintendo also say they had no new hardware planned in 2019 and 2021 when Lite and OLED were surprisingly revealed? maybe we could get another revision this year like a TV-only model, OLED lite, etc.
 
if by september we dont get even one official notice of a new console coming i guess i will be getting a switch. ideal would be nintendo telling us a release date
 
jaycie said:
welp, that sucks. holiday 23 seemed to make the most sense so this is...interesting. a little worrying? maybe, but I'll stay optimistic. just praying that 3D Mario doesn't get revealed in the next 12 months for Switch 1 😵‍💫 I need that bad boy on Switch 2 with glorious RTX

also, did Nintendo also say they had no new hardware planned in 2019 and 2021 when Lite and OLED were surprisingly revealed? maybe we could get another revision this year like a TV-only model, OLED lite, etc.
Click to expand...
Nothing regarding future hardware was really confirmed, as far as we know. It's mostly been hearsay from insiders. Many people are pointing to Nintendo's high sales forecast as indication for a hardware release next year, but I personally don't think it holds any water. It should also be noted that earnings reports aren't typically the best place to look for future announcements; rumblings maybe, but they're not as definitive as people seem to think. I was guilty of falling for it too, so I can't talk too much.
 
Boxle said:
The only prediction that can be accurately assessed at this point is the prediction that today was going to be chaos.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the only bit of information that we got from Nintendo, that was even related to new hardware, is that new/upgraded hardware was not factored into their fiscal year forecast. I've seen various people and media outlets running with that and saying that they're saying that means no new hardware this fiscal year, and that's definitely not what was said. Nintendo words things very carefully, they always have.

Fiscal year results are not the place to announce a new console, and there's almost nothing we can really say. We got some new rumors from Nikkei, but remember that Nikkei wasn't exactly on the money about Switch revisions in years previous either.

Until the second half of this year is revealed, anything is still up in the air. Until we details about things through the rest of the fiscal year, nothing is ruled out for the fiscal year. Everyone just needs to calm down a little bit. Panic Button does not need to be developing this thread.
Click to expand...
If it's not factored into the fiscal briefing and forecast already, then it's pretty unlikely that they would update the forecast to add millions of units of hardware, along with changing their cash flow forecasts, mid fiscal year. That would be a very significant change. That's likely why analysts are saying what they are saying, and perhaps they have their own sources as well, based on that other article referencing a "source close to Nintendo" from Nikkei.

Maybe it still happens this FY, or maybe it released immediately after the FY, but I think we can safely say, based on the last several months, there's been no indication that it's coming "soon", and that's been echoed by journalists, insiders, and industry analysts alike. Every indication we have is pointing in the opposite direction. So people should reasonably adjust expectations on when hardware is coming.
 
Shish said:
What the #### Is going on here?
Click to expand...
Chaos, which was predicted since it was also predicted by the folks who folks should trust that nothing of note relating to [Redacted] would be covered in Nintendo's financial reports. Which it wasn't. Nothing new has ever been announced by Nintendo via a shareholder communication, nor would you, its terrible marketing.

The closest you get is a forecast of 15M is interesting as it's a relatively small drop from 18M. Of course that could be covered by Nintendo releasing new hardware late in the FY, it could also be covered by a price reduction, or just confidence that the software itself will drive 15M of sales.
 
SpaceGodzilla said:
7e4.jpg
Click to expand...

I am very much not choosing to be salty, this just feels like tiring cope.

Nintendo giving no indication whatsoever to their investors that a new system (that will determine all of their success for the next 7 years) is launching in six months... Unlikely.

Nintendo projecting that the Switch 1 could sell 15m units even though its sales would be killed off by the Switch 2... Unlikely.
 
Reader mode
You must log in or register to reply here.
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
Last edited:


Back
Top Bottom