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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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ziggyrivers said:
Does anyone know how much time between a meeting and Nintendo posting the Q&A?
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I think it's a day or two after. Need time to properly translate it and maybe get management's approval on the translation. There could be some live tweeting going on but that's always subject to misinterpretation and lack of clarity (but that never stops anyone).
 
neil said:
How does UFS 3.0 compare to the SSDs in the other two consoles? It sounds pretty fast. The specs I just looked up said sequential read of 2.1 GB/s, but I don't know how big a deal that is. Way faster than Switch anyway.
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the nvme's in the large consoles are full speed pcie gen 4 ssds. while ufs is a power limited ssd. they really can't be compared in raw terms, but yes, the difference is big
 
Me, to ChatGPT
Please answer the following questions as if you are President of Nintendo, Shuntaro Furukawa. It's May 2023, and the Switch OLED model has been out since 2021. Software and hardware sales are down, year to year, but still relatively robust this late in the Switch's lifecycle. The sequel to the Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild is 5 days from releasing, and is called "Tears of the Kingdom". First question: The Switch is in it's 8th year. Going forward, what kind of life cycle do you expect for Nintendo Switch? How long until the next hardware platform is announced?
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And ChatGPT's response
As President of Nintendo, I am proud of the longevity and success of the Nintendo Switch, which has exceeded our initial expectations. We believe that the Switch still has strong potential and many more years of life ahead of it. However, we also understand that the video game industry is constantly evolving and that consumers' demands and expectations will continue to change over time.

At this point, it's difficult to give a specific timeline for when the next hardware platform will be announced. Our focus right now is to continue to support the Nintendo Switch and to provide new and exciting experiences for our fans. We believe that there is still a lot of room for growth and innovation on the Switch platform, and we are committed to exploring new ideas and possibilities. That being said, we are always looking ahead and planning for the future, and we will make announcements about new hardware when the time is right.

Second question: With Breath of the Wild sequel releasing soon, what does Nintendo plan to do to maintain momentum after its release?

As the release of "Tears of the Kingdom" approaches, we are thrilled to see the excitement and anticipation that fans have for the game. We believe that this title will be a major driver of momentum for the Switch platform and for Nintendo as a whole.

To maintain this momentum, we plan to continue releasing a steady stream of high-quality games that showcase the unique features and capabilities of the Switch. We will also continue to support our existing franchises, as well as explore new opportunities for growth and expansion.

Additionally, we will work to engage with our fans and the wider gaming community through events, social media, and other channels. We believe that fostering strong relationships with our players is key to maintaining momentum and ensuring the continued success of the Nintendo Switch.
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invwar said:
I would seriously dislike different SKUs, I always hate them. Most of the time they are anyway placed to trigger FOMO. I would definitely prefer a 128/256 Base model with UFS 3.0/1 and the ability to purchase branded UFS 3.0 cards as storage addon with the option for MicroSD as cold storage.
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If they could just release a 256-512GB model for $400, I'd be happy. But this is Nintendo. I'd pay $450 for 512GB.

oldpuck said:
And ChatGPT's Response
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Literally couldn't tell the difference. Exactly what Nintendo corporate would say. Lmao
 
Instro said:
Mochizuki ran a story about Switch shipments back in January that was proven to be incorrect almost immediately, so he's probably keeping his head down.
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Darn it seems like Nintendo is shutting down all of the insiders in regards to leading up to the next device. Makes me believe that if there really are devkits out there only Japanese developers have them because this level of secrecy is unheard of
 
Dekuman said:
They'll need to announce something, and if the insiders are still saying no June direct, then it's going to be a late summer direct. It would be baffling if we don't get a direct until September with nothing launching in June or August and only a July pikmin release.
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Unfortunately there's a good chance that instead of a real direct in the summer they just do what they did last year: Only have a partners showcase in the summer and then announce a few first party things via separate announcements on twitter/youtube.

For their investors they will likely focus on the success of the mario movie and how they will shift more funding to movies and possibly even TV shows.
 
ShadowFox08 said:
Weird that the BOM link for the Pixel Pro 7 says
"Meanwhile, Micron and Samsung together provide the 12GB LPDDR5." How can they both be used for the RAM? Hmm.

Other than that, the vast majority of the Pixel 7 Pro's BOM is from Samsung (over 50%) parts.

I've brought this up before, but it would not surprise me if Nintendo did the same. The screen, the RAM, the potential UFS 3.1 storage, the wifi (5G), audio, and of course--the node (5nm). Samsung 5nm node might just be cheaper than tsmc 4nm per wafer, if Samsung offered a massive discount by having Nintendo getting more Samsung parts (or something like Pixel Pro 7). It just makes sense from a cost perspective.
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I think Counterpoint Research's talking about Google dual sourcing LPDDR5 from Micron and Samsung, with some models using Micron's LPDDR5, and some models using Samsung's LPDDR5.

Outside of price, which I think is questionable, especially if Nintendo and Nvidia have to fabricate more wafers when using Samsung to make up for Samsung having lower yields than TSMC vs if Nintendo and Nvidia were fabricating wafers using TSMC, I don't know if there are any benefits from Nvidia securing process node capacity for only one product. Nvidia usually secures process node capacity for multiple products. I think that considering Nvidia (and AMD) complained about how bad TSMC's 20 nm** process node was, and how relatively quickly Nvidia moved from TSMC's 20 nm** process node with the Tegra X1 (Erista) to TSMC's 16 nm** process node for the Tegra X1+ (Mariko) after Nintendo released the Nintendo Switch, I don't think Nvidia sees any benefits from securing process node capacity for only one product.

And I don't know if Nintendo wants to exclusively use Samsung for most components that Nintendo can also buy from other companies, especially if Samsung can raise prices at any time if Samsung knows Nintendo won't buy from other companies.

BDGAME said:
Only to know. How fast is the UFS 3.0 if compared to last gen and current gen consoles?
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Although JEDEC mentions that UFS Card 3.0 is based on UFS 3.0, UFS Card 3.0 is actually much closer to the sequential performance of dual lane UFS 2.0, with a max theoretical bandwidth of 1.2 GB/s, which should be fine since third party developers were requesting from Sony at least a sequential read speed of 1 GB/s for the PlayStation 5.
 
so I'm not sure if this is a dumb question, but since this is a Fiscal Year earnings report, is this where we get sales forecasts for Switch? If Nintendo is planning a successor for next year, would we be able to deduce that by looking at how many Switch consoles their anticipating to sell?
 
TomNookYankees said:
For their investors they will likely focus on the success of the mario movie and how they will shift more funding to movies and possibly even TV shows.
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I’m not really sure this will accomplish much of anything when asked directly about HW/SW numbers both for the current & future fiscal year. Investors would like to know why numbers are flagging or outlooked for the primary business.
SirShorse said:
so I'm not sure if this is a dumb question, but since this is a Fiscal Year earnings report, is this where we get sales forecasts for Switch? If Nintendo is planning a successor for next year, would we be able to deduce that by looking at how many Switch consoles their anticipating to sell?
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Theoretically one could though it is not a exact method for doing so. It’s dependent on Nintendo & how high they wanna put that number forecast.
 
What are we forecasting for tomorrow?

Well, tonight.

What are we expecting forecast for the next FY?

I believe some report that on the supply chain it was at 20M or so…? Or maybe I’m misremembering and that’s something older.
 
I hadn’t intended for my Smash comment to upset anybody, and felt bad for it. It was meant to be a lighthearted troll post, and I should’ve indicated that. I’m sorry. 💕✨
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
What are we forecasting for tomorrow?

Well, tonight.

What are we expecting forecast for the next FY?

I believe some report that on the supply chain it was at 20M or so…? Or maybe I’m misremembering and that’s something older.
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Last year they projected 21 million, then adjusted to 18 and it actually did sell 18? I think?

So I’m expecting 15-16 million this year unless Nintendo is expecting a ton of new fans from the movie that have never owned a Nintendo console before… which is fair but I’m not sure how many that could be.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
What are we forecasting for tomorrow?

Well, tonight.

What are we expecting forecast for the next FY?

I believe some report that on the supply chain it was at 20M or so…? Or maybe I’m misremembering and that’s something older.
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That was Mochizuki's article I believe, which also said Nintendo was going to increase their current FY forecast back to like 20-21 million, right before their most recent quarterly results, which ended up being incorrect when they revised downward a 2nd time to the current 18m. So I assume that the increase for this coming FY is also incorrect. Not entirely sure they are going to hit that revised target either tbh. Could come in a bit short as they did in 2018-2019. They'll probably hit their revised software forecast, which I assume was part of the reason for stuffing a bunch of games in the first few months of the year since there was no Arceus this time around.

Forecast for upcoming FY, hardware shouldn't be more than ~14m based on the last FY performance and current trends. Software forecast probably like ~175m.

I'll stick with them acknowledging new hardware in some way. Like "we are currently planning for the successor the Switch. It is planned for release this FY/after this FY". Something like that.
 
SirShorse said:
so I'm not sure if this is a dumb question, but since this is a Fiscal Year earnings report, is this where we get sales forecasts for Switch? If Nintendo is planning a successor for next year, would we be able to deduce that by looking at how many Switch consoles their anticipating to sell?
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Not convinced this was ChatGPT, it is very clear that through deduction, you Oldpuck are the President of Nintendo, Shuntaro Furukawa and you have, in a fit of madness, leaked your own answers to the inevitable questions that will be put before you onto an online forum where in your delusions believe will never leave the site.

Oh Furukawa, how wrong you are. Watch as a swarm of journalists and YouTubers take this and use it against you.
 
Thraktor said:
I don't think UFS 4.0 is particularly likely, but I agree that UFS 3.0/3.1 is on the table. Google released the Pixel 7 Pro back in October with 128GB of UFS 3.1 storage, and Counterpoint Research published a supplier breakdown from their BoM analysis of the phone in February. SK Hynix provides the UFS, and they reportedly accounted for 4% of the BoM. With the total coming to $413, this would mean the UFS cost approximately $16.52. However, flash prices have been dropping significantly over the past year and will continue to do so.

Counterpoint don't make it clear whether they're using prices as of the initial manufacturing of the Pixel 7 Pro or as of the writing of the report. If they're taking prices as of the initial manufacturing, with a new Nintendo console releasing a year later, then Trendforce estimates of UFS pricing suggest an approximately 44% drop in prices over that period, which would push the price of a 128GB UFS 3.1 module down to around $9.25. Even if the price quoted was for the start of 2023 and Nintendo is purchasing in mid-2023, then you'd still expect an approximately 22% drop in prices, down to around $12.88. These prices should continue to drop, if you're expecting a launch in 2024. I can't find a good source for how much 32GB eMMC would have cost Nintendo in 2017, but I would be surprised if it were significantly below $10.
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Ooh, nice slide in prices.
For comparison, in early 2019, 256 GB of UFS 3.0 would've cost in the mid to high 20's USD (data point 1 and 2). So, fast forward through the pandemic hike and then the start of the post-pandemic slump, you get a minor version update and half the size for ~57-68% of the price. Not bad at all, considering that as you climb up in size, the price/GB should be going downward.

Yea, it's hard to find 32 GB eMMC in 2017. Last I looked, I saw ~$7 for 64 GB in the end of 2018, here. I don't remember whether 2017-2018 was in the downward trend or upward trend of the flash cycle though :unsure:
Dakhil said:
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Ooh, yea, for a little context for the thread. PowerVia is Intel's version of backside power delivery.
Normally, wiring for signal transmission as well as power delivery are both on one side of the transistors. Backside power delivery is about shifting the power delivery wiring to the other side. The two perks I gather from reading coverage of this are being able to squeeze in some more transistors than before as well as less interference between signal and power, so apparently that results in lower resistance. So, less waste of energy, yay.
So at the VLSI symposium next month, Intel will be presenting the test chip they made with PowerVia on Intel 4. This is interesting, because prior to this news, it was always understood that Intel will be rolling out PowerVia with their 20A node. That's also the node they'll be moving to GAAFET (or, RibbonFET for Intel's particular branding). To contrast, TSMC is moving to GAAFET with the first version of N2 in ~2025. Then introduce backside power delivery with the followup version, N2P, in ~2026. So here, instead of tackling the GAAFET transition and backside power delivery wholly simultaneously with Intel 20A, it seems that Intel is taking a crack at PowerVia now with Intel 4. Pretty sure this is just testing though and that we're not seeing product with PowerVia until 20A.
What about Samsung, you may ask? Nobody gives a damn about Samsung Foundry's alleged plans until they actually deliver some competition again. :cautious:

Oh yea, speaking of events where Intel will do some talking, Intel Vision 2023 is actually over the next couple of days. I'm not expecting anything particularly relevant to Nintendo here. The audience is primarily business types, I gather? The VLSI symposium on June 11 through 16 will be for the engineer types, I think. The actual contents of that will be way beyond me, but I am looking forward to the coverage that dumbs it down for a more mainstream audience :p
 
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Concernt said:
Re: textures.

Pikmin 4's bulborbs are less detailed than Pikmin 3, with no normal map to give their spots depth. :(
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This is almost certainly an artistic choice as I'm 99% certain the bulburb has a normal map for other lighting effects, regardless of whether or not it's being used for bump mapping.

Could be wrong but that's the standard for modern graphics.

Edit: On closer inspection, 100% an artistic choice. You can see the normal map is used for bump mapping to give the shell a ridged texture, like a beetle's.

NSwitch_Pikmin4_25.jpg
 
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Instro said:
That was Mochizuki's article I believe, which also said Nintendo was going to increase their current FY forecast back to like 20-21 million, right before their most recent quarterly results, which ended up being incorrect when they revised downward a 2nd time to the current 18m. So I assume that the increase for this coming FY is also incorrect. Not entirely sure they are going to hit that revised target either tbh. Could come in a bit short as they did in 2018-2019. They'll probably hit their revised software forecast, which I assume was part of the reason for stuffing a bunch of games in the first few months of the year since there was no Arceus this time around.

Forecast for upcoming FY, hardware shouldn't be more than ~14m based on the last FY performance and current trends. Software forecast probably like ~175m.

I'll stick with them acknowledging new hardware in some way. Like "we are currently planning for the successor the Switch. It is planned for release this FY/after this FY". Something like that.
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It almost feels unfair to even call this a prediction, but I'm completely confident that if new hardware is mentioned at all, it will be in a Q&A response, and the response will be "we have nothing to announce" or "we are not yet at the stage where we can talk about new hardware."
 
The (revised) 18M hardware forecast for the past year was met almost exactly. Next year's forecast is 15M.

The R&D forecast is an increase of 10 billion yen, which is the same increase it's had for a few years now, so no exciting conclusions to be drawn there.

The currently stated outlook for FY24 is, very unsurprisingly, just "we plan to convey the appeal of Nintendo Switch" and "TotK, Pikmin 4, and DLC for Pokémon SV will be released." Somehow, every quarter some people seem to be caught off guard by this, but Nintendo doesn't talk about things in financial materials that haven't already been announced. So you cannot read anything into these statements, or the Q&A answers once those become available, about Nintendo's unannounced plans or lack thereof.
 
So just seen the game software sales, and from my standpoint i dont think the low sales have to do with the games, i personally know people who are tired of the Switch hardware and keep asking me are they any closer to revealing new Switch hardware. With Nintendo having such a low forecast they plan on riding this old cash cow until its legs completely fall off.
 
By
Takashi Mochizuki and
Yuki Furukawa
9. Mai 2023 um 08:34 MESZ

Nintendo Warns of Big Slowdown in Switch Console Sales This Year​

Nintendo Co. expects to sell 15 million units of its Switch console this fiscal year, showing the extent of the slowdown for its six-year-old flagship product.
The Kyoto-based games maker’s guidance falls shy of an average analyst estimate of 15.7 million units, which already took into account a deceleration in hardware sales in recent months. The company also forecast operating income of ¥450 billion ($3.3 billion) this fiscal year, versus the ¥455.3 billion average estimate.
Nintendo on Tuesday said it sold 17.9 million Switch units in the year to March and reported operating profit of ¥93.8 billion for the quarter on Tuesday. Analysts had expected that it would report an operating profit of ¥83.4 billion.
The hybrid Switch console, released in 2017, is slowing down more quickly than the company had once anticipated. President Shuntaro Furukawa has described the holiday season as disappointing, telling analysts that sales were affected by the sluggish global post-Covid reopening and the economic malaise brought about by inflationary pressure.
The poor holiday performance came even with a pair of record-setting debuts — Splatoon 3 in September and Pokémon Scarlet and Violet in November — suggesting the market for Nintendo’s hardware is close to saturated.
The company lacked a blockbuster release in the first quarter, though it plans to release a much-anticipated sequel to The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild this Friday and also got a tailwind from the April opening of The Super Mario Bros. Movie, a well received collaboration with animation studio Illumination.

Still, hardware sales are unlikely to rebound now that Nintendo faces rising competitive pressure from Sony Group Corp., which is finally able to ramp up production and deliveries of its PlayStation 5 and aims to sell more than 25 million units this year.
Read more about Sony’s most recent earnings report and outlook for the current year
Analysts don’t foresee Nintendo being able to bolster sales of the Switch with hit games the way it has done in the past and, moreover, the company isn’t expected to release a successor console for at least another year.
“We expect Nintendo will not release the next-generation hardware over the next 12 months,” UBS Securities analyst Kenji Fukuyama said in a letter to clients ahead of the earnings report. “Nintendo’s valuation is very likely to shrink until the launch of the new hardware.”
Nintendo shares were given a boost this year by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, which built up its position in the company to 8.3%, making it the largest external shareholder.
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Of course, this is just an outsider analyst, but this will likely initialize a massive drop in Nintendo stock value.
If this is true, Nintendo is likely really doomed to repeat history and release again the successor of their successful console way too late. Let's see what happens after TOTK release and its success message, if the stock market does not get stabilized by then AND they still not announce a successor, Team FY24 is 100% dead.
 
So the forecast brings them to 140M units sold this time next year. That’s still quite confident and not the ‘huge’ drop off being expected.

I fully expect 12 months+ before a successor now.
 
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