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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Reader mode
ziggyrivers said:
By the way, I know this is veeery anecdotal, but I’ve been to two different retail stores and have seen several boxes of OG, OLED and Zelda OLED Switches. The console, seemingly, is losing its steam.
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It's in year 7. It obviously is losing steam. But you're going to see some pretty impressive may sales with the launch of TOTK. A well stocked system doesn't mean sales are falling off a cliff.
 
Bonejack said:
Fun fact: Iirc, the original version of the song didn't feature that Dudebro shouting things, he was added (against the wishes of the band) when the producers wanted some male voice "power" so that they could use it for Ben Afflecks Daredevil movie soundtrack.
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I hate that it happened against the band's wishes but...I have heard both versions and that one is the better one, I've always gravitated to it more. Has more energy and hits more in my opinion.
 
What we need now to really make this in line with the other years of speculation we’ve had for this thing is some model we’d all disregarded randomly releasing this year, ala the oled in 2021. Switch home for holiday 2023 lol.
 
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Some of the more negative reactions from the investors and enthusiasts seem stemmed from the downbeat financial forecast of FY03/2024. I'd like to refresh people's memory that when it comes to forecasts, Nintendo tends to play possum in the beginning of an FY. See their forecast for FY22 (right column):
HBVzj4X.png


Their actual FY22 numbers (left column) beat the forecast handily:
5ma4w4f.png


As for the FY23 forecast (see above; right column), Nintendo copied their own homework from the year before, and gave the exact same forecast. Wouldn't you know it, in FY23 both the actual ordinary profit and net profit (below; left column) comfortably beat the forecast again:
gDoe03J.png


So despite all the talk about "stretching" to meet the FY24 forecast, history suggests that these are likely lowball numbers, and Nintendo might have some hardware/software tricks up their sleeve to help them achieve that.
 
Erathix said:
I'm getting one for third party support reasons. Frankly, Switch 2 is already outdated and underpowered when it does release as it cannot match even the ROG Ally which is coming soon. The ROG Ally based on the Z1 Extreme is already a Switch 2.75 (I will say 3 when it can go above 10TFLOPS, though come to think of it Switch 3 could also somehow fall behind that too, I hope not) when going full power, battery draining? Yes but if you want to push it you have the option to, furthermore I have the option for upscaling and resolution adjustments. VRR is a game changer on a handheld device, I use VRR frequently for PS5 and games that I hear complaints over frame rate or stutter issues just do not affect me, VRR on my TV is so good that I have always had smooth frames and no judder.

That to me is what I was waiting for, the Steam Deck didn't convince me yet as I was waiting for the inevitable successors that would take what they did and make it more convenient (running on Windows) and affordable (leaked prices are definitely in my ball-park compared to all the others on the market) and more powerful (definitely a tick from everything I have seen run on it so far.)

Nintendo will always be for my exclusives though I am sad by how behind they really are when it comes to tech. This should've been out sooner frankly, they have dragged this out far too long and I know every argument out there is it's Nintendo, they make ridiculous money and no competitor will come close to their market share. That isn't the point. To me the point is there are handhelds evolving in this space at a rate that I feel Nintendo isn't bothering to match and making case studies in how fast this space is developing, which to me makes my interest in Switch diminish as a result because it no longer is this mind-blowing piece of tech I once saw it as, it is now archaic and even the Switch 2 is becoming something I'm losing excitement over the more it drags out and will only pick up for exclusives rather than a main console I was once considering back when the handheld space felt more limited.

It is exciting what Nintendo can do with finally having PS4 Pro power as there are plenty of incredible games you can make with that kind of power and I'm keen to see what they do with it. But it is sad how unwilling Nintendo is it seems to keep up, I really do want them to try harder to and take notes but they never have and I don't think they ever will. Nintendo will always Nintendo.

I am excited by ROG Ally and will revert all my third party games to it when it releases because I am very impressed with it. By the time Switch 3 comes out given the advancements in the handheld PC space, I expect a device the equivalent of a Switch 6 will exist half way through 2's life cycle anyways. Switch did something amazing for the handheld side of the industry and drove a race that has been highly beneficial for us handheld gamers. I've never been more excited about the developments happening here.
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Doom Eternal, 57 degrees Celsius.
 
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fwd-bwd said:
Some of the more negative reactions from the investors and enthusiasts seem stemmed from the downbeat financial forecast of FY03/2024. I'd like to refresh people's memory that when it comes to forecasts, Nintendo tends to play possum in the beginning of an FY. See their forecast for FY22 (right column):
HBVzj4X.png


Their actual FY22 numbers (left column) beat the forecast handily:
5ma4w4f.png


As for the FY23 forecast (see above; right column), Nintendo copied their own homework from the year before, and gave the exact same forecast. Wouldn't you know it, in FY23 both the actual ordinary profit and net profit (below; left column) comfortably beat the forecast again:
gDoe03J.png


So despite all the talk about "stretching" to meet the FY24 forecast, history suggests that these are likely lowball numbers, and Nintendo
Click to expand...
I was just gonna post something similar:



This is Nintendo’s third best year. They have enough incentives to ride the Switch out more. Especially since the OLED is steadily selling still. I think a successor, if not revealed in June, could come 12-18 months from now
 
fwd-bwd said:
Some of the more negative reactions from the investors and enthusiasts seem stemmed from the downbeat financial forecast of FY03/2024. I'd like to refresh people's memory that when it comes to forecasts, Nintendo tends to play possum in the beginning of an FY. See their forecast for FY22 (right column):
HBVzj4X.png


Their actual FY22 numbers (left column) beat the forecast handily:
5ma4w4f.png


As for the FY23 forecast (see above; right column), Nintendo copied their own homework from the year before, and gave the exact same forecast. Wouldn't you know it, in FY23 both the actual ordinary profit and net profit (below; left column) comfortably beat the forecast again:
gDoe03J.png


So despite all the talk about "stretching" to meet the FY24 forecast, history suggests that these are likely lowball numbers, and Nintendo
Click to expand...
Under promise and over deliver is like a unwritten motto at Nintendo at this point.
 
I still believe REDACTED will come out this year, if they said anything about it during the investor meeting, there would be news about it all over the place, no room for the surprise big announcement Nintendo wants to make.

I would like to get the Zelda oled, but honestly I barely play my switch anymore, Totk will most likely be my last switch game. Prime 5 will be cross gen, you can't change my mind about this, there is no better game to showcase next console capabilities.

I can easily see the switch selling 15m this fy. Nintendo announces new console, most launch titles are cross gen, switch gets a $50 price cut for all SKUs. Switch still gets first party and indie support for next 2-3 years.

That would be a very smooth transition, and would fulfill the switch 10 year life cycle
 
kasparov77 said:
Fuck it. Buying a steam deck.
Click to expand...
I say that but honestly, I know it's not the same thing; thus why I'm waiting. A new switch most likely won't have discord, the same game library or the flexibility of being a PC. But, if it has BC, plays both old switch and new titles perfectly without glitches and has enough performance for current gen titles, then I'm taking nintendo's offer over it.
 
I hope we get an announcement and release before summer of next year. Summer Direct Hype with a shiny new console already in our hands would be great.
 
by this report today, i won't be surprised if they release it in 2027, of course with the T239 Drake, i dont uderstand what they doing
 
Hartmann said:
but many in the stock market believe it will be after the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025.
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So we have stock market uncles now?

Stuncles?

Keviaar said:
Team 2023 in shambles rn
Click to expand...
Nah I'm fine. As far as I've read over the past five pages or so, it looks like Furukawa said new hardware was not included in the forecasts, and outlets jumped to the conclusion that that means new hardware isn't coming. But they could reveal and release new hardware in 2023 and not only would Furukawa's statement still be technically true, but it would also like up with his doubt that current Switch will meet the sales forecast (because sales will drop once new hardware is unveiled).

So I'm actually totally fine. 😅
 
Bonejack said:
Fun fact: Iirc, the original version of the song didn't feature that Dudebro shouting things, he was added (against the wishes of the band) when the producers wanted some male voice "power" so that they could use it for Ben Afflecks Daredevil movie soundtrack.
Click to expand...
Ugh, I'm gonna have to go on an Evanescence/Amy Lee binge now.
Which is not a bad thing, she's my favourite singer of all time. There's something just extremely ethereal and powerful about her voice.
 
chocolate_supra said:
So we have stock market uncles now?

Stuncles?


Nah I'm fine. As far as I've read over the past five pages or so, it looks like Furukawa said new hardware was not included in the forecasts, and outlets jumped to the conclusion that that means new hardware isn't coming. But they could reveal and release new hardware in 2023 and not only would Furukawa's statement still be technically true, but it would also like up with his doubt that current Switch will meet the sales forecast (because sales will drop once new hardware is unveiled).

So I'm actually totally fine. 😅
Click to expand...
giphy.gif
 
Angel Whispers said:
Not to have a go at you especially, but I detest these kind of comments with a fierce passion. First of all, this narrative exists solely for Nintendo bash-and-trash purposes because every console, EVER, releases with "dated tech" due to the fact that consoles never eclipse PCs - I could have a semblance of respect for it if the energy was consistent, for example, XB1/PS4 releasing with poor CPUs was not reported on with the same fire. Or "60FPS" being nothing more than buzzword bollocks now - When Nintendo publications released with 60FPS more often than not on the Wii U, nobody showed the same interest, and we even had articles saying 30FPS was better because the PS4 would sacrifice it for perceived "visual spectacle". Hell, 30FPS was good enough for everybody until Switch versions of games adopted it a little bit more.

It's the correct call to be patient. More software will be announced soon enough. When IGN and other sites started this agenda with the current Switch, they couldn't point to another portable SoC from 2017 or earlier, let alone a sub-$300 portable system which could run the games the Switch has in its library better than it. Or Verge calling a 2017 system a 2022 "tech fail". It's BS, and everybody knows it. If anybody wants to say the successor will be outdated when it releases, they better be ready to throw their PS5s/XSs in the bin, too, because I guaran-damn-tee that people will be saying this while playing their 2020 systems (with tech from 201X in them and the same Dual Shock variant from 1997) in the same breath, still tethered to a wall because they can't play anywhere. Worst of all, the "dated" claim doesn't hold up, unless you're comparing to the PC space. It's an extremely nebulous statement by nature. Now, It's true that A710 and A715 have released since the A78 class. It's also true that X1, X2 and X3 ARM processors exist, BUT X1C is the only other one that has a C variant, and that's for desktops and always on-laptops. NONE of them have had substantial performance and efficiency gains to make them better-suited for the successor - So, this is an example of "newer" not necessarily meaning "better". BUT A78C is still a very impressive CPU, and the fact that the A78 class still appears in some form in (premium) mid-range phones today is a testament to that. A78C is gaming specific, and the single-cluster octa-core CPU will be better than today's flagship portables because the non-C version AND all of the subsequent CPUs have been used in multiple clusters with A55 or A510 cores. The GPU will be based on the Ampere series, with some Lovelace elements, and Ampere alone has a more modern feature set than both PS5/XS. Nvidia's RT is better than AMD's RT, AND it has a neural unit/DLSS - So, it has smarter engineering, and it has high disruption potential, in that it could put out end results similar to or even better than PS5/XS.

Finally, 15m in the 7th, SEVENTH year is mightily impressive. It means they're in healthy shape, and it means they will be able to enter transition with confidence. PS3 and X360 had 7 and 8-year cycles, while XB1/PS4 had 7 years. 2024 shouldn't be a surprise to anybody, and between the Booster Course Pass, Splatoon 3 post-release support, and recent Xenoblade Chronicles 3 DLC, they've literally tried to tell everybody... but Nintendo having a bit over 6 years is somehow problematic!? How wild. All of that BEFORE we mention the impact of a pandemic, which isn't over, by the way, on their development schedule. That can never be overstated. It isn't over, no matter how much some politicians want to assure us it is.
Click to expand...
Yeah, 17.97M actually marks a new record for a console in its 6th full FY, a bit above the previous record of 17.53M set by NDS. I want the Switch 2 as much as anyone else, and don't want Nintendo to mess up the transition, but some of the more dramatic takes have no basis.
 
Chun said:
Once again, Metroid Prime 4 is announced and I would bet is going to be dated for like October (based off insider speculation) in the next 6 weeks or so. Dread was announced and dated for October in June.
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Nintendo would be insane to expect to hit there 15m switch goal with metroid as there big holiday game, I'm expecting 2d mario to ride off the movie hype
 
kasparov77 said:
Well, we got an update.
OZ42FQF.png


Maybe this could indicate a june/july direct. Or maybe, nothing. 🥹
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Is it just me or isn't it a bit weird how they only have updates for two upcoming months? wouldn't they normally release a wider schedule? Honestly thought they would have at least ~3 more planned dates announced today for their calendar.

I only recently started following the nintendo IR calendar but I still think this is kinda off...
 
As soon as I noticed how much Nintendo has been stretching thin their NSO releases (somehow 1 new GBA game per month was too optimistic) I had a feeling it was because there wouldn’t be new hardware until late 2024 and their plan is to stretch things out as much as they can until then.
 
Hmmm..... I still can't see them riding off the Switch for 12-18 months without anything substantial to justify it, regardless of their forecast. Maybe my scepticism is unwarranted or unfounded, but I also don't want to jump to conclusions. I might be too stubborn for my own good.
 
SpaceGodzilla said:
Nintendo would be insane to expect to hit there 15m switch goal with metroid as there big holiday game, I'm expecting 2d mario to ride off the movie hype
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Was not implying that, just used Prime 4 because it is a game we know about that we will likely get this holiday that many have elected to brush aside in favor of H2 being empty so new hardware imminent.

I am also personally expecting a 2D mario or a big Donkey Kong this holiday in addition to Prime
 
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It's 2168, mankind has finally rebuilt what little there is left after World War 7

"Drake is totally releasing this year guys, there's no doubt in my mind."
 
SpaceGodzilla said:
What I hear: "At the earliest sping 2024 could be the Switch 2 release date"

What some people hear: "Clearly late 2024 or early 2025"
Click to expand...
What I hear: "Nothing out of the ordinary and some insider quotes taken as gospel" 😃
 
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Arynio said:
Yeah, 17.97M actually marks a new record for a console in its 6th full FY, a bit above the previous record of 17.53M set by NDS. I want the Switch 2 as much as anyone else, and don't want Nintendo to mess up the transition, but some of the more dramatic takes have no basis.
Click to expand...
My brother bought me a Switch for my 40th birthday last year, and it made me cry "at my big fucking age". He knows I've been a Nintendo fan since forever (my 5th birthday in 1987), but I wasn't in a position where I could get one (unemployment, illness, trauma from a racist attack the year before, depression). So, the plan was to play whatever I could whenever I had the chance to catch up with friends or drop by a games store, then wait for a sucessor and take advantage of backwards compatibility. I'm fine with them taking their time. For me, the point where I'll feel ready to bite on a successor is the announcement of any three from next LOZ, Bayonetta 4, next PlatinumGames title, next Sonic Racing title, next Kid Icarus, next 3D Super Mario and Mario Kart 9.
 
Arynio said:
Yeah, 17.97M actually marks a new record for a console in its 6th full FY, a bit above the previous record of 17.53M set by NDS. I want the Switch 2 as much as anyone else, and don't want Nintendo to mess up the transition, but some of the more dramatic takes have no basis.
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I kinda agree, but I'd say my (unhinged) takes have just a little basis and reasoning.
 
On the upside, I would hope the hardware not being ready until 2024 increases the odds that it has 12GB or even 16GB of RAM instead of only 8GB and that they are figuring out a solution to the speculated storage speed limitations.
 
My prevision for what will happen

  • June - Nintendo comments about a next gen machine, like they did with Nintendo NX
  • July - Pikmin 4 release
  • August - First mock video, without any game footage, name reveled
  • September - Final MK8's DLC, symbolizing the finish line, or the end of switch
  • October - First real video with games and release date to next year
  • March - Release date. Expect to sell 3 millions, (so current switch + Switch 2 = 15M)

If not March, then April. That is my expectation from now on.
 
I probably should not, but I still have hopes for a 2023 reveal.
If even the reveal only happens next year, this will legitimately be too long with current hardware and zero next gen info.

Well, now I'll just let the disappointment go away by itself, enjoy going back to BotW and forget about everything else once TotK releases.
 
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