StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[karmitt]

My opinion is this game could be a good pretender for a cross gen launch title.
I can see this game for a launch release ( maybe launch window ) it’s been a long time that the game has been rebooted

It has been a very long time, but Metroid has always felt like a franchise without as much reach as fans hope - myself included. I’m curious just how much of a pedestal they’ll give the game given that.

As I said, I can only dream that it’s going to be a real flagship release. A return to form for Retro Studios as we enter a new generation would be really heartening news.

 

[MuddySeal]

What’re y’all’s estimates for total units sold by the time OG switch inevitably dies? Mine’s 157.59 million

Total to date: ~122.55 million sold

My totally informed guesses:
2023: 13.5 million
2024: 9.45 million (30% down)
2025: 7.56 million (20% down)
2026: 4.53 million (40% down) -> discontinued

 

[Thugstas]

It has been a very long time, but Metroid has always felt like a franchise without as much reach as fans hope - myself included. I’m curious just how much of a pedestal they’ll give the game given that.

As I said, I can only dream that it’s going to be a real flagship release. A return to form for Retro Studios as we enter a new generation would be really heartening news.

this is my own opinion:
If Nintendo did not wanted to put this game on a pedestal they did not rebooted the game, let retro hired a lot for this game end waited for a long long time..
the time has come for MP to be a real Flagship release!

 

[Kazuyamishima]

this is my own opinion:
If Nintendo did not wanted to put this game on a pedestal they did not rebooted the game, let retro hired a lot for this game end waited for a long long time..
the time has come for MP to be a real Flagship release!

Metroid has been a flagship graphical title in the past and it still seems to be with the prime remastered

 

[Thugstas]

Metroid has been a flagship graphical title in the past and it still seems to be with the prime remastered

Not on graphical side … sales… mkt… brand image …. Strong game …

 

[karmitt]

this is my own opinion:
If Nintendo did not wanted to put this game on a pedestal they did not rebooted the game, let retro hired a lot for this game end waited for a long long time..
the time has come for MP to be a real Flagship release!

I have noted that they’ve hired significant talent that would be coming off the back of PS5 development. It would make a lot more sense for that talent to be leveraged on more modern hardware, but that’s just me being hopeful.

 

[Kazuyamishima]

Not on graphical side … sales… mkt… brand image …. Strong game …

Sorry I'm not sure what you're saying

 

[Concernt]

What’re y’all’s estimates for total units sold by the time OG switch inevitably dies? Mine’s 157.59 million

Total to date: ~122.55 million sold

My totally informed guesses:
2023: 13.5 million
2024: 9.45 million (30% down)
2025: 7.56 million (20% down)
2026: 4.53 million (40% down) -> discontinued

I think Nintendo will still publish software for Nintendo Switch (1) in 2027, though very little**. A discontinuation briefly before that point makes sense, since Xbox One was discontinued pretty much immediately but software continued coming out for it after that, and continues to do so.

I do think they will slim down the line considerably, dropping the V2 this year and eventually the OLED several years from now (I'd give it 2 or 3). The Lite I'm less certain of, and we might yet get a new X1+ based system a-la Wii Mini or New Nintendo 2DS XL.

**-> A marketing term used by all foundries I say this because, even though 10 years might seem like a long time, I stand firm in the belief of "if it can run on Switch (1), it will be released on Switch (1)". Stuff like... I don't know, Advance Wars 1+2 Rebootcamp, 2D games, 3DS remasters. Anything that can, without reworking it, function on Switch, would release on Switch, but be playable and optimised for Switch 2/Redacted. I imagine this will be true for a lot of indie and third party developers too, just a matter of installbase. Wii got games for a LONG time because Wii games SOLD for a long time.

 

[Concernt]

Sorry I'm not sure what you're saying

Not a strong game in the market, not a huge seller, but a "strong game", as in good for Nintendo's image. A prestige game, not a game meant to sell a billion units, like Hi-Fi Rush is on Xbox. Not a billion seller, but a real piece of prestige.

 

[lattjeful]

this is my own opinion:
If Nintendo did not wanted to put this game on a pedestal they did not rebooted the game, let retro hired a lot for this game end waited for a long long time..
the time has come for MP to be a real Flagship release!

They’d be stupid not to. The franchise has an insane pedigree, and the two Switch releases so far can be the start of an upward swing for the franchise if Nintendo plays their cards right.

It’s time for Metroid to get the sales that its reputation and pedigree deserve.

 

[Kazuyamishima]

Not a strong game in the market, not a huge seller, but a "strong game", as in good for Nintendo's image. A prestige game, not a game meant to sell a billion units, like Hi-Fi Rush is on Xbox. Not a billion seller, but a real piece of prestige.

Yeah I got that part but I'm not sure what they mean "on graphical side" Metroid prime has always been the best looking game for Nintendo's consoles or top 3 at least I'd call that flagship

 

[Concernt]

Yeah I got that part but I'm not sure what they mean "on graphical side" Metroid prime has always been the best looking game for Nintendo's consoles or top 3 at least I'd call that flagship

I think he means Prime Remastered isn't exactly a graphical showpiece for Switch due to its almost entirely baked lighting et al. Though I can't be sure.

 

[Thugstas]

I think he means Prime Remastered isn't exactly a graphical showpiece for Switch due to its almost entirely baked lighting et al. Though I can't be sure.

exactly.

 

[SpaceGodzilla]

this is my own opinion:
If Nintendo did not wanted to put this game on a pedestal they did not rebooted the game, let retro hired a lot for this game end waited for a long long time..
the time has come for MP to be a real Flagship release!

yup you don't hire that kinda talent and take that long on a game unless you have high expectations with quality and sales, and being a launch title on Switch whateverthefucktheregoingtocallit could knock the franchise up to just below Zelda in terms of popularity

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

yup you don't hire that kinda talent and take that long on a game unless you have high expectations with quality and sales, and being a launch title on Switch whateverthefucktheregoingtocallit could knock the franchise up to just below Zelda in terms of popularity

idk about all that

Let’s see how Prime Remastered did in a few weeks, then we can revisit this potential for Metroid Prime 4.

 

[Link_enfant]

Last night I had a dream where at some point, I suddenly saw a notification about a new Switch model (just as it happened for OLED), called the Nintendo Switch XL.
Basically another revision but with a very huge screen, bigger than the Joy Cons and with the wrong aspect ratio, and they explained it could turn into some kind of T-shaped form factor where it magically has two screens for multiplayer.
It was a complete disaster, I tried to understand the thing while being completely baffled and disappointed, mostly because it also confirmed we wouldn’t have a successor for quite some time.

 

[NateDrake]

yup you don't hire that kinda talent and take that long on a game unless you have high expectations with quality and sales, and being a launch title on Switch whateverthefucktheregoingtocallit could knock the franchise up to just below Zelda in terms of popularity

This is what got people mad when Tropical Freeze was announced. That it took too long and that Retro was hiring too many talented people from studios like Naughty Dog. Due to those reasons, people expected something far more grand than a DK game.

The Retro version of Prime 4 was announced just over 4yrs ago -- well within the standard development time of a game these days. Assuming they kept something from the original version, the game is progressing as one would expect it to. There's nothing abnormal or out of the ordinary with Prime 4's development to suggest Nintendo has lofty goals in terms of sales potential. Metroid, as a series, has a well-established ceiling in terms of sales potential & Nintendo is aware of that.

 

[LukasManak22]

This is what got people mad when Tropical Freeze was announced. That it took too long and that Retro was hiring too many talented people from studios like Naughty Dog. Due to those reasons, people expected something far more grand than a DK game.

The Retro version of Prime 4 was announced just over 4yrs ago -- well within the standard development time of a game these days. Assuming they kept something from the original version, the game is progressing as one would expect it to. There's nothing abnormal or out of the ordinary with Prime 4's development to suggest Nintendo has lofty goals in terms of sales potential. Metroid, as a series, has a well-established ceiling in terms of sales potential & Nintendo is aware of that.

As weird as it sounds, it's good that they announced original game at E3 2017 that soon, when development was as it's start. By revealing that game to the public they given themselves commitment to release it, since it's entirely possible that if it was not announced before the internal reboot, they could have just cancel the game for good.

 

[YolkFolk]

This is what got people mad when Tropical Freeze was announced. That it took too long and that Retro was hiring too many talented people from studios like Naughty Dog. Due to those reasons, people expected something far more grand than a DK game.

The Retro version of Prime 4 was announced just over 4yrs ago -- well within the standard development time of a game these days. Assuming they kept something from the original version, the game is progressing as one would expect it to. There's nothing abnormal or out of the ordinary with Prime 4's development to suggest Nintendo has lofty goals in terms of sales potential. Metroid, as a series, has a well-established ceiling in terms of sales potential & Nintendo is aware of that.

Yeah.

With Tropical Freeze, the Wii U was Nintendo’s first HD console and people were looking for experiences which couldn’t be done with the original Wii.

Nintendo had launched with New Super Mario Bros U which to the casual observer looked exactly like the Wii game. Fans were hoping that it would be Retro’s title which was going to be the game where people were like ‘Wow, this is a new generation experience and at the level we’ve not seen from Nintendo before’.

Instead we got another title that to the untrained eye looked like just another Wii type experience. Of course, Tropical Freeze is a brilliant game but it was the right game at the wrong time.

Nintendo needed to show people why the Wii U was a big deal, why it was a big upgrade over the Wii and could offer HD experiences like even the 360/PS3 were and yet there wasn’t enough software to show this early on.

 

[Bonejack]

This is what got people mad when Tropical Freeze was announced. That it took too long and that Retro was hiring too many talented people from studios like Naughty Dog. Due to those reasons, people expected something far more grand than a DK game.

The Retro version of Prime 4 was announced just over 4yrs ago -- well within the standard development time of a game these days. Assuming they kept something from the original version, the game is progressing as one would expect it to. There's nothing abnormal or out of the ordinary with Prime 4's development to suggest Nintendo has lofty goals in terms of sales potential. Metroid, as a series, has a well-established ceiling in terms of sales potential & Nintendo is aware of that.

But for Retro dev time, calculations always have to keep their BBQ time in mind.

 

[Charamiwa]

This is what got people mad when Tropical Freeze was announced. That it took too long and that Retro was hiring too many talented people from studios like Naughty Dog. Due to those reasons, people expected something far more grand than a DK game.

The Retro version of Prime 4 was announced just over 4yrs ago -- well within the standard development time of a game these days. Assuming they kept something from the original version, the game is progressing as one would expect it to. There's nothing abnormal or out of the ordinary with Prime 4's development to suggest Nintendo has lofty goals in terms of sales potential. Metroid, as a series, has a well-established ceiling in terms of sales potential & Nintendo is aware of that.

I absolutely do think they have lofty goals for the game. You say the Retro dev timeline is not unusual but you have to account for the full reboot as well. They could've just cancel it if it was one of those 2M sellers. The time and money put into this project absolutely tells me they want it to become much bigger than before.

 

[ziggyrivers]

What’re y’all’s estimates for total units sold by the time OG switch inevitably dies? Mine’s 157.59 million

Total to date: ~122.55 million sold

My totally informed guesses:
2023: 13.5 million
2024: 9.45 million (30% down)
2025: 7.56 million (20% down)
2026: 4.53 million (40% down) -> discontinued

That puts it above the PS2. I think it’s possible

this is my own opinion:
If Nintendo did not wanted to put this game on a pedestal they did not rebooted the game, let retro hired a lot for this game end waited for a long long time..
the time has come for MP to be a real Flagship release!

Fire Emblem became a flagship, so it’s possible for Metroid to do the same. Especially releasing for the Switch, and if it’s cross gen, even more

I think Nintendo will still publish software for Nintendo Switch (1) in 2027, though very little**. A discontinuation briefly before that point makes sense, since Xbox One was discontinued pretty much immediately but software continued coming out for it after that, and continues to do so.

I do think they will slim down the line considerably, dropping the V2 this year and eventually the OLED several years from now (I'd give it 2 or 3). The Lite I'm less certain of, and we might yet get a new X1+ based system a-la Wii Mini or New Nintendo 2DS XL.

**-> A marketing term used by all foundries I say this because, even though 10 years might seem like a long time, I stand firm in the belief of "if it can run on Switch (1), it will be released on Switch (1)". Stuff like... I don't know, Advance Wars 1+2 Rebootcamp, 2D games, 3DS remasters. Anything that can, without reworking it, function on Switch, would release on Switch, but be playable and optimised for Switch 2/Redacted. I imagine this will be true for a lot of indie and third party developers too, just a matter of installbase. Wii got games for a LONG time because Wii games SOLD for a long time.

I’m expecting crossgen to keep at it up until the successor’s second year in the game. Afterwards, it’s all exclusives.

Last night I had a dream where at some point, I suddenly saw a notification about a new Switch model (just as it happened for OLED), called the Nintendo Switch XL.
Basically another revision but with a very huge screen, bigger than the Joy Cons and with the wrong aspect ratio, and they explained it could turn into some kind of T-shaped form factor where it magically has two screens for multiplayer.
It was a complete disaster, I tried to understand the thing while being completely baffled and disappointed, mostly because it also confirmed we wouldn’t have a successor for quite some time.

This would have happened if the Switch was released in the Wii U days lol

 

[majimazio]

Creatures has reworked the Pokémon animation internally at 60fps since gen9.
Hopefully Pokémon gen10, which will probably be exclusive to [REDACTED], will run at 60fps.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Creatures has reworked the Pokémon animation internally at 60fps since gen9.
Hopefully Pokémon gen10, which will probably be exclusive to [REDACTED], will run at 60fps.

It's most likely for future proofing, like when they made the Pokémon high poly during the 3ds days. There could be an update to 60fps or they could just enhance fidelity. But having more motion data is always preferable regardless

 

[Guaraná]

Hahahhaa it’s gonna be a looong couple of months…

FTFY

 

[ziggyrivers]

Creatures has reworked the Pokémon animation internally at 60fps since gen9.
Hopefully Pokémon gen10, which will probably be exclusive to [REDACTED], will run at 60fps.

QUAXLY SUPREMACY

And right, “for future games” We know that next gen path is incoming

It's most likely for future proofing, like when they made the Pokémon high poly during the 3ds days. There could be an update to 60fps or they could just enhance fidelity. But having more motion data is always preferable regardless

True

 

[Guaraná]

Switch 2 launching titles:
Revamped: Pokemon, Splatoon, and Zelda TotK (Native res @ 60fps)
Cross-gen: Metroid Prime 4
All new: Mario 3D

 

[Paxie]

After thinking about it, I think I have a timeline that may explain all the weirdness going on with the reporting of Drake/REDACTED:

• 2019: Nintendo tests Mariko overclocks for a Switch Pro, but they disappoint and decide to use the new chip for longer battery life. They and NVIDIA start development on Drake, meant for a Pro. They target 2022 internally, with the Pro/REDACTED being used as a pitstop between the Switch 2 release in 2025-2027 so the hardcore base doesn't go insane.
• 2020: COVID happens and fucks over everyone.
• 2021: First credible whispers of REDACTED emerge from Bloomberg, but Mochizuki gets his wires crossed with the upcoming Switch OLED. The OLED has 4k output technology, but if FW datamines are any indication it was always intended to just be a premium Mariko. Later in the year, Bloomberg reports that they have talked to 11 devs with REDACTED devkits, infuriating Nintendo.
• 2022: Intended launch year of REDACTED. Games like Pokemon SV and Bayo purposefully de-emphasize optimization because they know improved hardware is coming. However, Nintendo pulls the rug out from under them by delaying REDACTED to Holiday 2023 partly due to logistical issues caused by COVID (pushing what was originally intended to be Switch 2 to 2030 or something), and repositions it as the actual Switch 2. The repositioning is used as an excuse to crackdown on devkit access following the "11 devkits" report, giving mistaken impressions that Drake/REDACTED has been cancelled.

 

[Angel Whispers]

Not sure who else needs to hear this, but Metroid Prime 4 isn't getting a special treatment and some fire and holy water needs pouring on such hopes. This has been a fanboyist fantasy amongst a subset of Nintendo fans since the Wii/PS3/X360 Era, the kind who so desperately wanted Retro to be "Nintendo Naughty Dog" at one time, chasing "visual fidelity/spectacle" and all that crap, even sacrificing 60FPS for "the visuals", gameplay be damned... To hell with that. Metroid hasn't had the sales to be worthy of the kind of budget some are thinking, and will quite rightly be treated by Nintendo as a second-tier IP, if that. It won't look far removed from the remastered first entry, it will target 60FPS like its predecessors and not like Doom Eternal or other certain existing first-person shooters on the Switch. Closer to Dread, but a 3D FPS is how it will look. That's still mightily impressive, and one would do well not to lose perspective... But a cross-gen or "special treatment" title, it ain't, and the seemingly strong desire to will this into existence is quite a reach. Whatever. As You Were.

 

[ziggyrivers]

Switch 2 launching titles:
Revamped: Pokemon, Splatoon, and Zelda TotK (Native res @ 60fps)
Cross-gen: Metroid Prime 4
All new: Mario 3D

Sounds like a solid launch lineup. Similar to Switch’s. Maybe Xeno3 will also be upped. The only difference from 2017 is that Zelda isn’t cross gen and Monolith will likely launch the successor with a new IP

2022: Intended launch year of REDACTED. Games like Pokemon SV and Bayo purposefully de-emphasize optimization because they know improved hardware is coming. However, Nintendo pulls the rug out from under them by delaying REDACTED to Holiday 2023 (pushing what was originally intended to be Switch 2 to 2030 or something) and repositioning it as the actual Switch 2. The repositioning is used as an excuse to crackdown on devkit access following the "11 devkits" report, giving mistaken impressions that Drake/REDACTED has been cancelled.

I think Nintendo could careless about leakers being right years ago. I you the Drake machine was repurposed from the Pro to the 2 because of how late it would have entered into the Switch’s life cycle. I think this is why Furukawa mentioned uncharted territory: a third revision was due, but after looking at the Switch’s performance, it wasn’t that bad. So they decided to ride out the current lineup before they settled on rebranding the revision and releasing it later.

Not sure who else needs to hear this, but Metroid Prime 4 isn't getting a special treatment and some fire and holy water needs pouring on such hopes. This has been a fanboyist fantasy amongst a subset of Nintendo fans since the Wii/PS3/X360 Era, the kind who so desperately wanted Retro to be "Nintendo Naughty Dog" at one time, chasing "visual fidelity/spectacle" and all that crap, even sacrificing 60FPS for "the visuals", gameplay be damned... To hell with that. Metroid hasn't had the sales to be worthy of the kind of budget some are thinking, and will quite rightly be treated by Nintendo as a second-tier IP, if that. It won't look far removed from the remastered first entry, it will target 60FPS like its predecessors and not like Doom Eternal or other certain existing first-person shooters on the Switch. Closer to Dread, but a 3D FPS is how it will look. That's still mightily impressive, and one would do well not to lose perspective... But a cross-gen or "special treatment" title, it ain't, and the seemingly strong desire to will this into existence is quite a reach. Whatever. As You Were.

This makes sense when you take into consideration that Prime 4 won’t be Nintendo’s big Holiday release this year if a 2D/3D Mario game comes out.

Prime 4 is gonna be the best selling Prime game, but it won’t be a killing machine

 

[ILikeFeet]

After thinking about it, I think I have a timeline that may explain all the weirdness going on with the reporting of Drake/REDACTED:

• 2019: Nintendo tests Mariko overclocks for a Switch Pro, but they disappoint and decide to use the new chip for longer battery life. They and NVIDIA start development on Drake, meant for a Pro. They target 2022 internally, with the Pro/REDACTED being used as a pitstop between the Switch 2 release in 2025-2027 so the hardcore base doesn't go insane.
• 2020: COVID happens and fucks over everyone.
• 2021: First credible whispers of REDACTED emerge from Bloomberg, but Mochizuki gets his wires crossed with the upcoming Switch OLED. The OLED has 4k output technology, but if FW datamines are any indication it was always intended to just be a premium Mariko. Later in the year, Bloomberg reports that they have talked to 11 devs with REDACTED devkits, infuriating Nintendo.
• 2022: Intended launch year of REDACTED. Games like Pokemon SV and Bayo purposefully de-emphasize optimization because they know improved hardware is coming. However, Nintendo pulls the rug out from under them by delaying REDACTED to Holiday 2023 partly due to logistical issues caused by COVID (pushing what was originally intended to be Switch 2 to 2030 or something), and repositions it as the actual Switch 2. The repositioning is used as an excuse to crackdown on devkit access following the "11 devkits" report, giving mistaken impressions that Drake/REDACTED has been cancelled.

The idea of Drake being a stopgap for a proper successor chip has always been ludicrous. 2025 is not going to get you a stronger chip. Not unless you want a marginally more power chip at a higher price

 

[LinkURL]

Not sure who else needs to hear this, but Metroid Prime 4 isn't getting a special treatment and some fire and holy water needs pouring on such hopes. This has been a fanboyist fantasy amongst a subset of Nintendo fans since the Wii/PS3/X360 Era, the kind who so desperately wanted Retro to be "Nintendo Naughty Dog" at one time, chasing "visual fidelity/spectacle" and all that crap, even sacrificing 60FPS for "the visuals", gameplay be damned... To hell with that. Metroid hasn't had the sales to be worthy of the kind of budget some are thinking, and will quite rightly be treated by Nintendo as a second-tier IP, if that. It won't look far removed from the remastered first entry, it will target 60FPS like its predecessors and not like Doom Eternal or other certain existing first-person shooters on the Switch. Closer to Dread, but a 3D FPS is how it will look. That's still mightily impressive, and one would do well not to lose perspective... But a cross-gen or "special treatment" title, it ain't, and the seemingly strong desire to will this into existence is quite a reach. Whatever. As You Were.

Wow, what bitterness. Is everything ok with you?

 

[Guaraná]

Not sure who else needs to hear this, but Metroid Prime 4 isn't getting a special treatment and some fire and holy water needs pouring on such hopes. This has been a fanboyist fantasy amongst a subset of Nintendo fans since the Wii/PS3/X360 Era, the kind who so desperately wanted Retro to be "Nintendo Naughty Dog" at one time, chasing "visual fidelity/spectacle" and all that crap, even sacrificing 60FPS for "the visuals", gameplay be damned... To hell with that. Metroid hasn't had the sales to be worthy of the kind of budget some are thinking, and will quite rightly be treated by Nintendo as a second-tier IP, if that. It won't look far removed from the remastered first entry, it will target 60FPS like its predecessors and not like Doom Eternal or other certain existing first-person shooters on the Switch. Closer to Dread, but a 3D FPS is how it will look. That's still mightily impressive, and one would do well not to lose perspective... But a cross-gen or "special treatment" title, it ain't, and the seemingly strong desire to will this into existence is quite a reach. Whatever. As You Were.

are u ok?

 

[Baobab]

Metroid is always getting a special treatment...in my heart.

 

[eye0h]

Not sure who else needs to hear this, but Metroid Prime 4 isn't getting a special treatment and some fire and holy water needs pouring on such hopes. This has been a fanboyist fantasy amongst a subset of Nintendo fans since the Wii/PS3/X360 Era, the kind who so desperately wanted Retro to be "Nintendo Naughty Dog" at one time, chasing "visual fidelity/spectacle" and all that crap, even sacrificing 60FPS for "the visuals", gameplay be damned... To hell with that. Metroid hasn't had the sales to be worthy of the kind of budget some are thinking, and will quite rightly be treated by Nintendo as a second-tier IP, if that. It won't look far removed from the remastered first entry, it will target 60FPS like its predecessors and not like Doom Eternal or other certain existing first-person shooters on the Switch. Closer to Dread, but a 3D FPS is how it will look. That's still mightily impressive, and one would do well not to lose perspective... But a cross-gen or "special treatment" title, it ain't, and the seemingly strong desire to will this into existence is quite a reach. Whatever. As You Were.

chill out lmfao

 

[Thraktor]

After thinking about it, I think I have a timeline that may explain all the weirdness going on with the reporting of Drake/REDACTED:

• 2019: Nintendo tests Mariko overclocks for a Switch Pro, but they disappoint and decide to use the new chip for longer battery life. They and NVIDIA start development on Drake, meant for a Pro. They target 2022 internally, with the Pro/REDACTED being used as a pitstop between the Switch 2 release in 2025-2027 so the hardcore base doesn't go insane.
• 2020: COVID happens and fucks over everyone.
• 2021: First credible whispers of REDACTED emerge from Bloomberg, but Mochizuki gets his wires crossed with the upcoming Switch OLED. The OLED has 4k output technology, but if FW datamines are any indication it was always intended to just be a premium Mariko. Later in the year, Bloomberg reports that they have talked to 11 devs with REDACTED devkits, infuriating Nintendo.
• 2022: Intended launch year of REDACTED. Games like Pokemon SV and Bayo purposefully de-emphasize optimization because they know improved hardware is coming. However, Nintendo pulls the rug out from under them by delaying REDACTED to Holiday 2023 partly due to logistical issues caused by COVID (pushing what was originally intended to be Switch 2 to 2030 or something), and repositions it as the actual Switch 2. The repositioning is used as an excuse to crackdown on devkit access following the "11 devkits" report, giving mistaken impressions that Drake/REDACTED has been cancelled.

I don't think T239/Drake was ever intended for a "Pro" model of any kind. Neither the hardware itself nor the timing make sense for it to be used in that kind of model.

From a hardware perspective, T239 is absurd overkill for a "Pro" model. If the expectation was a device which could play existing Switch games at 4K, there would have been two options. The first would be to take the existing Maxwell architecture of the original Switch, and basically just make a bigger TX1 GPU, perhaps 6-8 SMs. This could natively run Switch games at 4K (or close to it, depending on the game) and would be simpler for developers, as their Switch games are already well optimised for the Maxwell architecture. The second would be to take a newer architecture, like Ampere, and instead rely on DLSS to get to 4K. In this case you could get away with a smaller GPU (say 4-6 SMs) as you don't need to hit native 4K, and can let DLSS get you there. This is more work for developers, though, both because of the change in architecture from Maxwell to Ampere, and to a lesser extent the need to integrate DLSS.

T239 has 12 SM Ampere GPU. It is simultaneously bigger than it would need to be to brute-force Switch games to 4K natively, while also using a new architecture that's capable of DLSS. As a chip designed for "Switch games, but in 4K", it is complete overkill. As a chip designed for a successor to the Switch, it is quite sensible. Even aside from the GPU, we know it has an 8 core CPU, using a much newer architecture, which would be wasted if every game also had to run on the Switch. Ditto with the File Decompression Engine, which was custom-built for this chip and would make little sense for a "Pro" model.

In terms of timing, it seems that T239 was taped out in early to mid 2022. That makes plans for a 2022 launch very unlikely. Nvidia's Ada GPUs, taped out at around the same time, had around an 8 month gap from tape out to launch, but they're pretty low-volume launches. With a need to stockpile a few million units for the launch window, it's unlikely Nintendo ever would have planned a tape out to launch window of less than a year. As it currently is, we're looking at a year and a half or more between tape out and launch. As such, the latest that Nintendo could have reasonably considered launching in 2022 was H1 2021, and that would have been if the chip's design was already complete and ready to tape out.

A late 2022 launch would have been very late for a "Pro" model, in any case. The two times Nintendo has done this before, the DSi and n3DS, were launched between three and a half to four years into their life cycles. This would be five and a half years in, and actually would have come at a point when Switch was already older than the NES, SNES, N64, Gamecube and Wii U were when they got replaced. Nintendo has acknowledged in recent investor calls that the Switch has been around longer than almost any of their previous hardware (talking about being in "uncharted territory").

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

and will quite rightly be treated by Nintendo as a second-tier IP, if that.

Didn’t know Samus kicked your dog, so sorry you feel that way.

 

[ziggyrivers]

So in summation, can we expect the successor to be a PS4 undocked and a PS4 Pro docked?

 

[robertman2]

Wow, what bitterness. Is everything ok with you?

They're always like this. Got accused of being a Sony fanboy by them after I said people complained about Ragnorok being handholdy after they said it got away with it while Skyward Sword didn't.

 

[Hosermess]

Repackaging? Eh, no, I mean the DLC would be cross-gen, like Super 7 was for Forza Horizon 4 on Xbox. That said, I do expect games to be "repackaged", just not as "deluxe" versions. More like how Sword and Shield got rereleased as "+Expansion Pass" prints with it all on the Game Card, I'd expect this holiday (or next, depending, but I think this holiday) to be awash with things like Pokémon Scarlet + Hidden Secret of Area ZERO, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate + Fighters Pass 1+2+Piranha Plant, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe + Booster Course Pass, and other games all with the DLC and the next gen patch either included on the game card or with a code in the box. Bundles to mirror this on the eShop. Prices in the range of 70-100$. Though of course, all PREVIOUSLY purchased copies of these games would ALSO get the patch. Because I think even Nintendo knows locking graphical patches behind a "deluxe edition" doesn't fly well in this day and age, especially if the console is backwards compatible.

Switch 2 launching titles:
Revamped: Pokemon, Splatoon, and Zelda TotK (Native res @ 60fps)
Cross-gen: Metroid Prime 4
All new: Mario 3D

When I posted this idea about Deluxe DLC's, or DLC+ or whatever they come up with, I totally forgot about the 2nd wave of the Splatoon 3 DLC - Side Order. The one with the minimalist and mysterious trailer and the vaguest of vague release window of before NYE 2024.

Granted, not dating something so far out is standard practice, and a DLC for TotK isn't a small assumption at this point. But still has me wondering. I mean, I would prefer free fancy upgrade patches (beyond basics like a higher framerate, more draw distance etc) but a half-measured compromise of linking them to DLC content would be better than a standalone fee.

Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

I believe that, if the software that Nintendo working on for the launch of the new system was delayed, and they needed something to help fill out the release cycle of the new platform, then Zelda tears of the kingdom would’ve been an ideal game to actually use as a cross-gen title. to at least...

famiboards.com

 

[dad]

my dad who work at nintendo said that the lpddr5x will be use in t239 for switch
my dad also said that The next Nintendo "gimmick is nintendo version of chatgpt called navi whatever you stuck at puzzle or suck at dark souls you have to call navi for help
second Nintendo gimmick is dual screen support with the dock having projector allow the tv mode show the gameplay and in handheld mode is show the map

 

[Stefan51278]

So in summation, can we expect the successor to be a PS4 undocked and a PS4 Pro docked?

From a raw teraflop-number this could be true, but the PS4 has an older feature-set and moves this number-comparison to the absurd realms.

T239 / Drake / Switch 2 seems to have:

• way better CPU than everything in Gen 8 had to offer
• not massive, but existing Raytracing
• more recent ways of programming the GPU (DX12-level, important for future engine support and making ports easier) and more recent optimizations, for example texture compression at higher average compression rates
• DLSS
• file decompression engine
• no slow hard drive
• even with 8GB of Ram the smaller Switch-OS would give developers more memory, I personally still dream of 16GB but think that 12GB is also very possible.
• Tensor-cores could also be used for AI in games
• hardware-decoding could make game files smaller, better hardware-enconding could save space and battery for features like saving the last 30 seconds of your gameplay

All these features will make the console more powerful than a PS4 Pro. Comparing the handheld-mode with the PS4 also is not a fitting comparison because the PS4 was made for 1080p, SwitchTwo-handheld-mode will be 720p.

 

[chocolate_supra]

Not sure who else needs to hear this, but Metroid Prime 4 isn't getting a special treatment and some fire and holy water needs pouring on such hopes. This has been a fanboyist fantasy amongst a subset of Nintendo fans since the Wii/PS3/X360 Era, the kind who so desperately wanted Retro to be "Nintendo Naughty Dog" at one time, chasing "visual fidelity/spectacle" and all that crap, even sacrificing 60FPS for "the visuals", gameplay be damned... To hell with that. Metroid hasn't had the sales to be worthy of the kind of budget some are thinking, and will quite rightly be treated by Nintendo as a second-tier IP, if that. It won't look far removed from the remastered first entry, it will target 60FPS like its predecessors and not like Doom Eternal or other certain existing first-person shooters on the Switch. Closer to Dread, but a 3D FPS is how it will look. That's still mightily impressive, and one would do well not to lose perspective... But a cross-gen or "special treatment" title, it ain't, and the seemingly strong desire to will this into existence is quite a reach. Whatever. As You Were.

On the contrary, my expectation is not from a belief that Metroid will get special treatment, it's from the fact that it's the only revealed game left that isn't dated, and the longer it goes undated the closer it gets to Drake releasing. Simple as that. Honestly I'm not trying to will it up onto any sort of pedestal, as I didn't even like the Prime series all that much. But it's something of a core-style game (being an FPS) and there's a lot of hype around it and that could draw a number of a certain type of eyes to the new system if they decide to launch them together. Plus if Drake really is to be treated as a wholly new system (and not simply a powered-up Switch) as many people seem to expect by now, then the typical practice there is to launch several new games with it, meaning the release of a new Mario doesn't negate the possibility of a release for a new Metroid. It would make sense to me actually for Drake to launch with a mainstream family game and a more focused core game. No special treatment implied.

Hell, if I'm trying to will anything into existence with my earlier cross-gen statement it's a 2023 release for Drake.

 

[ziggyrivers]

From a raw teraflop-number this could be true, but the PS4 has an older feature-set and moves this number-comparison to the absurd realms.

T239 / Drake / Switch 2 seems to have:

• way better CPU than everything in Gen 8 had to offer
• not massive, but existing Raytracing
• more recent ways of programming the GPU (DX12-level, important for future engine support and making ports easier) and more recent optimizations, for example texture compression at higher average compression rates
• DLSS
• file decompression engine
• no slow hard drive
• even with 8GB of Ram the smaller Switch-OS would give developers more memory, I personally still dream of 16GB but think that 12GB is also very possible.
• Tensor-cores could also be used for AI in games
• hardware-decoding could make game files smaller, better hardware-enconding could save space and battery for features like saving the last 30 seconds of your gameplay

All these features will make the console more powerful than a PS4 Pro. Comparing the handheld-mode with the PS4 also is not a fitting comparison because the PS4 was made for 1080p, SwitchTwo-handheld-mode will be 720p.

Wooow…! Thanks the clarification! Sounds like a very impressive machine

 

[BowserIsMyFather]

Not sure who else needs to hear this, but Metroid Prime 4 isn't getting a special treatment and some fire and holy water needs pouring on such hopes. This has been a fanboyist fantasy amongst a subset of Nintendo fans since the Wii/PS3/X360 Era, the kind who so desperately wanted Retro to be "Nintendo Naughty Dog" at one time, chasing "visual fidelity/spectacle" and all that crap, even sacrificing 60FPS for "the visuals", gameplay be damned... To hell with that. Metroid hasn't had the sales to be worthy of the kind of budget some are thinking, and will quite rightly be treated by Nintendo as a second-tier IP, if that. It won't look far removed from the remastered first entry, it will target 60FPS like its predecessors and not like Doom Eternal or other certain existing first-person shooters on the Switch. Closer to Dread, but a 3D FPS is how it will look. That's still mightily impressive, and one would do well not to lose perspective... But a cross-gen or "special treatment" title, it ain't, and the seemingly strong desire to will this into existence is quite a reach. Whatever. As You Were.

Lol.

 

[Erika]

my dad who work at nintendo said that the lpddr5x will be use in t239 for switch
my dad also said that The next Nintendo "gimmick is nintendo version of chatgpt called navi whatever you stuck at puzzle or suck at dark souls you have to call navi for help
second Nintendo gimmick is dual screen support with the dock having projector allow the tv mode show the gameplay and in handheld mode is show the map

I’m Furukawa Shuntaro.
You dad has been fired.

 

[Stefan51278]

Wooow…! Thanks the clarification! Sounds like a very impressive machine

I think the advantage of SwitchTwo will be the longer dev cycle, OriginalSwitch had a short dev-cycle with Nintendo in DisasterMode. The capabilities of the device that I have listed are the same things which are selling smartphones today because raw power doesn't sell phones in the mass market, but better pictures with a better image signal processor sell phones to this day.

 

[TheSentry]

I think Metroid is awesome and I love it and I think it can be a review/award darling and a great game to excite and galvanize hardcore Nintendo fans. BUT if we are being honest, the series just has never been able to break a certain sales barrier. I think that ceiling is slowly growing some, but that’s expected with a grow video game industry and a high selling Nintendo console that people are actually playing (sorry Wii).

Anyways, I doubt MP4 will sell more than 5 million. Dread only sold like around 3 million and that’s the highest selling Metroid game.

With all that in mind, I’ve been trying to think what are the highest selling (most conservative accurate numbers I can find) Metroidvanias and the best I can think of is:

Hollow Knight has also sold around 3 million.

Ori games has only sold around 2 million each.

Now when we get into 3D metroidvania games the sales jump (though I think the franchises helped that a lot):

Batman Arkham Asylum sold over 5 million and Arkham City (kind of an open world metroidvania) sold over 7 million. Between releases, Game of Year editions, and remasters on newer gen consoles some believe these numbers could be closer to 10 million but no data released by WB.

Jedi Fallen Order sold over 10 million (over 20 million players through free copies/Gamepass).

I’m just through up some loose numbers to show that the genre has potential for much higher growth (though it seems a more open nature and hot franchise helps a lot).

So, I just don’t know if Metroid will get up to those 10 million number. But based on these other games I have some ideas:
1) Make Metroid a bit more of an open-ended and less rigid like Arkham City (unfortunately many Metroid fans might not like this).
2) Make a great movie that a lot of people see and love which would make the franchise more popular with people who have never played a Metroid game. This could encourage people to try out the next Metroid game.

 

[RennanNT]

Piggybacking on @Thraktor 's post above about T239 not making sense for a Pro and adding that nobody found traces of an intermediate chip between TX1+ and T239 on NVN / NVN2 code, it doesn't sounds like this supposed canceled Pro that we heard about recently was ever far in development to have devkits.

I wonder if what happened with Bloomberg is that:

• Nintendo just told partners (higher ups) that any future hardware would be 4K compatible but gave no solid timeline or devkits for the system.
• They instead gave tools to make and test 4K assets, so their partner had the option to future-proof their asset creation and test these games running in higher resolutions.
• Some partners chose to do that, even at the risk of the hardware launching 3~4 years later, since sometimes it's not viable/cheap to have teams which already moved to a new project to go back to update games (specially outsourced work).
• Due the secrecy around it, Mochi sources might have assumed that whatever they got to test the assets were early devkits and that the 4K assets deadline being the same for the other assets meant it was coming soon.

Meanwhile, if Nintendo never confirmed the Pro revision or a 2021/2022 timeline by the time they canceled it, they wouldn't get any backslash as long as Drake comes out within whatever vague timeline they gave to partners.

 

[ziggyrivers]

I’m Furukawa Shuntaro.
You dad has been fired.

Insert Trump meme here

Nintendo just told partners (higher ups) that any future hardware would be 4K compatible but gave no solid timeline or devkits for the system.

Maybe it was Nintendo future-proofing 3rd parties the same way Game Freak is future proofing with 60fps animations

They instead gave tools to make and test 4K assets, so their partner had the option to future-proof their asset creation and test these games running in higher resolutions.

lmaoo I just noticed you addressed this xD