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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Truno said:
If they don't acknowledge it tomorrow, it's not coming out this FY
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If Apple don't acknowledge their next iPhones to investors at the start of their FY, does that mean they can't release them? If Dell doesn't acknowledge their new lineup of laptops to investors at the start of their FY, can they not release those? What about Canon, are they not allowed launch a new camera unless they've told investors about it at the start of their FY?

I don't get why people seem to think that Nintendo, alone of all companies, is legally required to tell investors about their product launches before they launch them. It's not a thing, it's never been a thing. Historically game consoles have been announced more than a year before launch, so of course they're mentioned during their reporting at the start of the FY, as they're already announced products. But if Nintendo decides that the best course of action is announcing the Switch 2 later this year and releasing it in March 2025, then they don't have to say anything to investors besides "no comment".
 
Hermii said:
Yea, we can't rule out a wildcard node (any node that's not 8nm or 4nm), but it does seem unlikely.

Anyway, I just listened to the latest DF Direct and Rich said he considered 750mhz to be the absolute best possible scenario on 8nm. Wtf? Didn't expect him to be that ignorant about this topic.

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That makes me kinda sad, because before all this, I have found DF (at least seemingly) to be among the most knowledgeable about this kind of stuff.

And now this is making me wonder what else DF might be a bit less knowledgeable about than they let on.

Just have to tell myself to take everything with grain of salt - as it should go with everything else I guess.
 
Soralink91 said:
I went back and looked at the May fiscal report of the last three years. There is usually a decent portion dedicated to the upcoming year and the highlights of what has been already announced.

2021- Nintendo was in a position of power and the fantastic sales numbers spoke for them selves.
2022- Most of the Line up was already announced with Splatoon 3 and Pokemon SV being the drivers for the year
2023- Coming off the big success of Mario Movie and excitement for Tears of the Kingdom.

This year again seems to be an outlier since there really isn't any big successes to highlight and there really isn't anything announced of note to bring up either. This meeting could go in any number of directions, but if I were a betting man I would say it will be very conservative, and not have much for us.
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You know you've been here* too long when a post from Jan 2022 is still relevant.

*here = uncharted territory

Hosermess said:
Also this one:

45127.jpg

THEN WE'LL HAVE THE USUAL CONSOLE SALES LULL, BUT, HEY, WE'RE MAKING ENOUGH MONEY, RIGHT?
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(also what a call by Piers Harding-Rolls lol crazy to have forecasted it that far back with absolutely no inside info....right?)
 
NateDrake said:
They can easily wait until June's 84th Shareholder Meeting.
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Why would they do that? What's the precedent for something like that? I don't see it at all.

In any case, they're gonna have to pull something out of the bottom of the barrel to convince investors not to sell their shares
 
I cannot think of a better month for Nintendo to announce the Switch 2 than right now.

There's just nothing happening at all and nothing to distract away from.

If it's coming in March 2025... They should probably announce it.
 
I'm curious how people will reconcile their belief that Nintendo HAS to tell investors about hardware, or it can't be launching in the FY, if that is in fact what ends up happening.

If the shoe's on the other foot, and they do "mention" it tomorrow, that won't shock or confuse me. I'll just think "huh, I guess Nintendo cares more about investor confidence at this moment than I thought they did." And I'll probably also think the full announcement/reveal is coming somewhat late in the year, and that's why they didn't just wait. Or in an alternative scenario, the full reveal is also this week, and they just take the opportunity to announce the announcement at the meeting; that wouldn't be so strange, and the financial results side of it is kind of an incidental detail because it's more like using it as a press conference.

But if they don't mention it at all, and just announce it sometime in the next few months on its own, then release it in March -- that can't possibly square with what people are claiming Nintendo does and doesn't have to do w.r.t investors. So I wonder what their conclusions will be.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I cannot think of a better month for Nintendo to announce the Switch 2 than right now.

There's just nothing happening at all and nothing to distract away from.

If it's coming in March 2025... They should probably announce it.
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It's crazy how we went from an endless barrage of news and new games starting from 2021 to just... nothing. Nothing at all.

All eyes on Nintendo. It's time.
 
Thraktor said:
If Apple don't acknowledge their next iPhones to investors at the start of their FY, does that mean they can't release them? If Dell doesn't acknowledge their new lineup of laptops to investors at the start of their FY, can they not release those? What about Canon, are they not allowed launch a new camera unless they've told investors about it at the start of their FY?

I don't get why people seem to think that Nintendo, alone of all companies, is legally required to tell investors about their product launches before they launch them. It's not a thing, it's never been a thing. Historically game consoles have been announced more than a year before launch, so of course they're mentioned during their reporting at the start of the FY, as they're already announced products. But if Nintendo decides that the best course of action is announcing the Switch 2 later this year and releasing it in March 2025, then they don't have to say anything to investors besides "no comment".
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They could probably just lie and then say 'due to unforseen circumstances we have accelerated our business plans' in some emergency investors notice. Nothing they say has to pan out fully and they are well aware of this.
 
LiC said:
I'm curious how people will reconcile their belief that Nintendo HAS to tell investors about hardware, or it can't be launching in the FY, if that is in fact what ends up happening.

If the shoe's on the other foot, and they do "mention" it tomorrow, that won't shock or confuse me. I'll just think "huh, I guess Nintendo cares more about investor confidence at this moment than I thought they did." And I'll probably also think the full announcement/reveal is coming somewhat late in the year, and that's why they didn't just wait. Or in an alternative scenario, the full reveal is also this week, and they just take the opportunity to announce the announcement at the meeting; that wouldn't be so strange, and the financial results side of it is kind of an incidental detail because it's more like using it as a press conference.

But if they don't mention it at all, and just announce it sometime in the next few months on its own, then release it in March -- that can't possibly square with what people are claiming Nintendo does and doesn't have to do w.r.t investors. So I wonder what their conclusions will be.
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Easy, we'll have forgotten about all this by next year and we'll do it all again for the next generation.
 
LiC said:
I'm curious how people will reconcile their belief that Nintendo HAS to tell investors about hardware, or it can't be launching in the FY, if that is in fact what ends up happening.

If the shoe's on the other foot, and they do "mention" it tomorrow, that won't shock or confuse me. I'll just think "huh, I guess Nintendo cares more about investor confidence at this moment than I thought they did." And I'll probably also think the full announcement/reveal is coming somewhat late in the year, and that's why they didn't just wait. Or in an alternative scenario, the full reveal is also this week, and they just take the opportunity to announce the announcement at the meeting; that wouldn't be so strange, and the financial results side of it is kind of an incidental detail because it's more like using it as a press conference.

But if they don't mention it at all, and just announce it sometime in the next few months on its own, then release it in March -- that can't possibly square with what people are claiming Nintendo does and doesn't have to do w.r.t investors. So I wonder what their conclusions will be.
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I think part of it might stem from misplaced belief that because March 2025 tentative launch date falls on the current FY, therefore, Nintendo is obligated to share that to shareholders when they share the new FY forecast numbers.
 
LiC said:
But if they don't mention it at all, and just announce it sometime in the next few months on its own, then release it in March -- that can't possibly square with what people are claiming Nintendo does and doesn't have to do w.r.t investors. So I wonder what their conclusions will be.
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They'll just say Nintendo is making erratic business decisions, have no idea what they're doing, and will go bankrupt soon. The usual.
 
LiC said:
I'm curious how people will reconcile their belief that Nintendo HAS to tell investors about hardware, or it can't be launching in the FY, if that is in fact what ends up happening.

If the shoe's on the other foot, and they do "mention" it tomorrow, that won't shock or confuse me. I'll just think "huh, I guess Nintendo cares more about investor confidence at this moment than I thought they did." And I'll probably also think the full announcement/reveal is coming somewhat late in the year, and that's why they didn't just wait. Or in an alternative scenario, the full reveal is also this week, and they just take the opportunity to announce the announcement at the meeting; that wouldn't be so strange, and the financial results side of it is kind of an incidental detail because it's more like using it as a press conference.

But if they don't mention it at all, and just announce it sometime in the next few months on its own, then release it in March -- that can't possibly square with what people are claiming Nintendo does and doesn't have to do w.r.t investors. So I wonder what their conclusions will be.
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It's the pattern watcher mindset lmao. All they will do is gain another strand of thought in their option select and still continue to close their brain to everything else because "nintendo hasn't done it before".
 
LiC said:
I'm curious how people will reconcile their belief that Nintendo HAS to tell investors about hardware, or it can't be launching in the FY, if that is in fact what ends up happening.

If the shoe's on the other foot, and they do "mention" it tomorrow, that won't shock or confuse me. I'll just think "huh, I guess Nintendo cares more about investor confidence at this moment than I thought they did." And I'll probably also think the full announcement/reveal is coming somewhat late in the year, and that's why they didn't just wait. Or in an alternative scenario, the full reveal is also this week, and they just take the opportunity to announce the announcement at the meeting; that wouldn't be so strange, and the financial results side of it is kind of an incidental detail because it's more like using it as a press conference.

But if they don't mention it at all, and just announce it sometime in the next few months on its own, then release it in March -- that can't possibly square with what people are claiming Nintendo does and doesn't have to do w.r.t investors. So I wonder what their conclusions will be.
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I am more interested in their 2h software.
I expect a lot of remasters/ ports
 
Nintendo doesn’t have to disclose their hardware plans, the same way they they don’t have to disclose their software plans. Last year we didnt know their software plans for H2, but then they did a Direct for it.

They can do the same with the successor console: reveal it when they think is best.

And I’m starting to think that best time is in June
 
"Pattern watching" isn't the theory behind Nintendo needing to announce the Switch 2 within a few hours. It just doesn't make sense to intentionally deceive investors so you can instead announce the system two weeks later instead.

The theory of why Nintendo would ever choose to do this doesn't exist.
 
ziggyrivers said:
Last year we didnt know their software plans for H2, but then they did a Direct for it.
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Welllll, we sorta knew stuff for H2, especially with a blockbuster title to look forward to, Pikmin 4, and we also had supporting software DLCs from various popular titles to carry us over along with a heavily rumored 3d Mario game (another blockbuster non remake/remaster) title that was also expected to do huge sales. Last year were also riding off the coasts for ambitious titles such as Tears of the Kingdom, and Mario Movie, which helped them coast on the sales. Now we'll see what they have time time for H2 as so far the furthest known is Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (a remaster)
 
Switcharoo said:
They aren't "deceiving" per say, as they are not obligated to and want to announce at a more definitive time, according to their plans. Just like how Apple doesn't announce iphones coming later in their year at their annual FY outlook meetings
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Annual new products are a bit different than hardware from a company that has a hardware release once every half decade to decade at semi irregular times.
 
ziggyrivers said:
Nintendo doesn’t have to disclose their hardware plans, the same way they they don’t have to disclose their software plans. Last year we didnt know their software plans for H2, but then they did a Direct for it.

They can do the same with the successor console: reveal it when they think is best.

And I’m starting to think that best time is in June
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Why is it better to unveil the new console after or during Summer Games Fest instead of before.
 
I think it should be obvious that revealing a console early will undoubtedly impact sales of the current system, so that's the downside. It's a downside you have to accept at some point, but figuring out where that should be is probably hard, you can't just say "oh we should let investors know" and not consider anything else.

That being said, I'm wondering, has any brand-new hardware like this released without some kind of announcement at least a year in advance? Like PS5 started being talked about in 2019, right? And even from Nintendo, I'm not aware of any system being announced on such short notice. Maybe the DS? Not saying it can't happen, of course, but I'm thinking companies probably do it that early for a valid reason, too.
 
LiC said:
I'm curious how people will reconcile their belief that Nintendo HAS to tell investors about hardware, or it can't be launching in the FY, if that is in fact what ends up happening.

If the shoe's on the other foot, and they do "mention" it tomorrow, that won't shock or confuse me. I'll just think "huh, I guess Nintendo cares more about investor confidence at this moment than I thought they did." And I'll probably also think the full announcement/reveal is coming somewhat late in the year, and that's why they didn't just wait. Or in an alternative scenario, the full reveal is also this week, and they just take the opportunity to announce the announcement at the meeting; that wouldn't be so strange, and the financial results side of it is kind of an incidental detail because it's more like using it as a press conference.

But if they don't mention it at all, and just announce it sometime in the next few months on its own, then release it in March -- that can't possibly square with what people are claiming Nintendo does and doesn't have to do w.r.t investors. So I wonder what their conclusions will be.
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Why would the conclusion be any different than your own if you're wrong...? It would just be "oh I guess it wasn't that important to inform investors after all". That would be my takeaway, and move on. I don't think anyone has said Nintendo "has" to do anything. Just that we are at a point where it would make sense to disclose such information, and not doing so is probably not a great sign of something launching in the FY.

What's with the weird condescending attitudes from some users here just because a handful don't agree on this point? It's not like the "Nintendo will announce it any time, investor meetings don't matter" crowd has had a whole lot of success with their viewpoint over the last couple years.
 
Won't we be able to infer if they are releasing a new Switch next FY based on their FY 2025 hardware projection? Switch is several years past it's peak year in term of hardware sales, so If the projection is an increase from their FY 2024 hardware projection, then it most likely includes new hardware. If the projection is a decrease from their FY 2024 projection, then it does not. This would either mean either 1) no new hardware next FY or 2) they are not including hardware sales of the new Switch in their projection and could risk investors getting angsty with another year of declines in hardware revenue with no major software support this year (that we know of yet) to offset the loss in hardware revenue.
 
necrolipe said:
IMO the best scenario is to reveal at least the console existence tomorrow or this month to allow announcements from third party devs from all the summer gaming events season coming
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Yeah I don't need anything more than this at the moment, personally. Just like how DQ11 was announced for NX two months before the official Switch reveal.

x game coming to PS5, Xbox Series X, and "the next generation Nintendo console" would be a delight to see throughout this summer.
 
nenned said:
Won't we be able to infer if they are releasing a new Switch next FY based on their FY 2025 hardware projection? Switch is several years past it's peak year in term of hardware sales, so If the projection is an increase from their FY 2024 hardware projection, then it most likely includes new hardware. If the projection is a decrease from their FY 2024 projection, then it does not. This would either mean either 1) no new hardware next FY or 2) they are not including hardware sales of the new Switch in their projection and could risk investors getting angsty with another year of declines in hardware revenue with no major software support this year (that we know of yet) to offset the loss in hardware revenue.
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That's the general idea. If they forecast an increase in Revenue or hardware sales, the only logical way that can happen is with new hardware. I do not see a world where the Switch 1 will increase in sales year over year.

Most likely they will just forecast numbers with Switch in mind and try to spin it the best way possible. They will risk upsetting investors a bit, but I think Nintendo knows if they nail Switch 2 it doesn't matter in the long run if they lose a bit of support it May 0f 2024.
 
Soralink91 said:
That's the general idea. If they forecast an increase in Revenue or hardware sales, the only logical way that can happen is with new hardware. I do not see a world where the Switch 1 will increase in sales year over year.

Most likely they will just forecast numbers with Switch in mind and try to spin it the best way possible. They will risk upsetting investors a bit, but I think Nintendo knows if they nail Switch 2 it doesn't matter in the long run if they lose a bit of support it May 0f 2024.
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I mean, OK, but they have to announce this within the next 30 days to get pseudo e3 announcements so why not announce it now instead.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I mean, OK, but they have to announce this within the next 30 days to get pseudo e3 announcements so why not announce it now instead.
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Don't get me wrong I disparately want Nintendo to announce this thing and for us to start getting actual real hype going. I am just predicting what I think is going to happen.
 
nenned said:
Won't we be able to infer if they are releasing a new Switch next FY based on their FY 2025 hardware projection? Switch is several years past it's peak year in term of hardware sales, so If the projection is an increase from their FY 2024 hardware projection, then it most likely includes new hardware. If the projection is a decrease from their FY 2024 projection, then it does not. This would either mean either 1) no new hardware next FY or 2) they are not including hardware sales of the new Switch in their projection and could risk investors getting angsty with another year of declines in hardware revenue with no major software support this year (that we know of yet) to offset the loss in hardware revenue.
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It will be option 2 no matter what. They only provide a Switch unit sales forecast, and the new hardware isn't part of that. Even if they did announce the hardware for March tomorrow, it still wouldn't get a unit sales forecast in this briefing.

As for investors getting angsty -- Switch sales have declined for each of the past few years, and investors have been asking Nintendo about next-gen hardware for two years straight. Nothing is so different now that Nintendo will be forced to discuss any plans before they're ready. I've yet to see anyone explain what actually changes for Nintendo if they do a hardware "acknowledgement" now compared to just waiting for a big public reveal in a few weeks or months.
 
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LiC said:
It will be option 2 no matter what. They only provide a Switch unit sales forecast, and the new hardware isn't part of that. Even if they did announce the hardware for March this week, it still wouldn't be get a unit sales forecast in this briefing.

As for investors getting angsty -- Switch sales have declined for each of the past few years, and investors have been asking Nintendo about next-gen hardware for two years straight. Nothing is so different now that Nintendo will be forced to discuss any plans before they're ready. I've yet to see anyone explain what actually changes for Nintendo if they do a hardware "acknowledge" now compared to just waiting for a big public reveal in a few weeks or months.
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Okay, but literally why refuse to acknowledge it now if you're announcing it in two weeks.

(Also, there's been like zero buzz of it getting a full announcement anytime soon. Any announcement in the near future will probably just be a release month and a code name instead of anything with footage)
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I mean, OK, but they have to announce this within the next 30 days to get pseudo e3 announcements so why not announce it now instead.
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I agree. No matter how well Nintendo reports they did this past FY, you will see the headlines like "Nintendo Predicts Further Reduction in Switch Sales With No Successor On The Horizon" everywhere from videogame sites to business publications. Why give investors a reason to panic and sell their shares now if you just plan on announcing a few months down the road anyway?
 
Switch in its eighth year will likely sell as much hardware as 3DS in its peak years (2012-2013)

I wonder if they could get away with Holiday 2025
 
necrolipe said:
IMO the best scenario is to reveal at least the console existence tomorrow or this month to allow announcements from third party devs from all the summer gaming events season coming
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Not that Nintendo would let a third party dictate what they do, but revealing it before June 9th (the XBox Games Showcase and, more importantly, the Redacted (COD) Direct would be a good idea.

I mean, that is if they've got something related to announce ¯\(ツ)/¯
 
Instro said:
I don't think anyone has said Nintendo "has" to do anything.
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With all due respect, there have numerous posts these past few pages saying just that.

I would assume some of the condescension you feel is being shown is maybe actually frustration, because no matter how many times people try to correct the record about what Nintendo is and isn’t legally obligated to do, the next post will be along the lines of “Nintendo has to say if it’s launching this FY year or they’ll be misleading investors” or “If they don’t mention it, it won’t be releasing this fiscal year.” Neither of those statements are accurate, and it doesn’t come down to a difference in opinion.
 
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