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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

"Pattern watching" isn't the theory behind Nintendo needing to announce the Switch 2 within a few hours. It just doesn't make sense to intentionally deceive investors so you can instead announce the system two weeks later instead.

The theory of why Nintendo would ever choose to do this doesn't exist.

It sometimes feels that the constant, "will they/won't they" speculation surrounding the Switch Pro and the Switch 2 since 2021 has irrevocably poisoned speculation. Because of this, people are now conditioned to believe that Nintendo will discard any logical announcement timeline in order to provide the bare minimum at the absolute last second, which makes no sense aside from "because Nintendo".
 
I’m actually curious, if Nintendo acknowledges the system tonight, can developers just start mentioning they’re working on the game immediately or is it the usual NDA.

A PR-speak acknowledgement wouldn't be a greenlight for third party developers to speak on anything. Regardless of an NDA, it would severely damage their relationship with Nintendo to talk about a game for a system that hasn't been formally announced to the general public yet.
 
Give me Galaxy 2 and a NSMB collection and I'll be happy.
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I’m actually curious, if Nintendo acknowledges the system tonight, can developers just start mentioning they’re working on the game immediately or is it the usual NDA.
Well ,there were Multiplatform titles (and Zelda) announced as coming to "NX" before it was the Switch. But I can't guarantee that will happen this time.
 
IMO the best scenario is to reveal at least the console existence tomorrow or this month to allow announcements from third party devs from all the summer gaming events season coming

Although, they probably could do a partner showcase with any launch reveals and let the marketing play out that way. It's more interesting to know which titles from 3rd party will be there at launch instead of ones in the future 🤔 .
 
Im not going to waste my energy going back and forth about will they or wont they since in about 12 hours or so we will have the answer, and in regards to third parties confirming their games for it, i can only see Nintendo allowing that if they actually say the name of the console if they do a press release instead of them just saying the Next generation of Nintendo Switch
 
A PR-speak acknowledgement wouldn't be a greenlight for third party developers to speak on anything. Regardless of an NDA, it would severely damage their relationship with Nintendo to talk about a game for a system that hasn't been formally announced to the general public yet.
Unless Nintendo and the dev signed a NDA to only show selected games by official console presentation, yes, PR acknowledging allow them to reveal games projected to the new system (as happened with Square Enix and Ubisoft before NX turned to be Switch)
 
Here's the entirety of what Nintendo forecasts each year, where the impact of new hardware would actually be included. (They also do hardware and software unit sales forecasts, but only for systems that have been released or are being released imminently.)

image.webp


These numbers are all highly cumulative, and there's no breakdown. I think it's most likely the case that the impact of new hardware launching in March -- the last month of the financial year -- would be so obfuscated that there's nothing for Nintendo to discuss or explain. All of the topline numbers are very likely to be down regardless, with a late in the FY launch of hardware, new costs, and declining Switch sales (especially since I've been assured Switch sales will immediately hit rock bottom if/when they do announce the new hardware). If that's the case, is some investor really going to ask "why aren't they even MORE down?" And is Nintendo going to be compelled to answer that they're planning new hardware, instead of just saying "we plan to convey the appeal of Nintendo Switch" and "we are planning a variety of products and services that we believe will drive sales?"
 
I'm curious how people will reconcile their belief that Nintendo HAS to tell investors about hardware, or it can't be launching in the FY, if that is in fact what ends up happening.

If the shoe's on the other foot, and they do "mention" it tomorrow, that won't shock or confuse me. I'll just think "huh, I guess Nintendo cares more about investor confidence at this moment than I thought they did." And I'll probably also think the full announcement/reveal is coming somewhat late in the year, and that's why they didn't just wait. Or in an alternative scenario, the full reveal is also this week, and they just take the opportunity to announce the announcement at the meeting; that wouldn't be so strange, and the financial results side of it is kind of an incidental detail because it's more like using it as a press conference.

But if they don't mention it at all, and just announce it sometime in the next few months on its own, then release it in March -- that can't possibly square with what people are claiming Nintendo does and doesn't have to do w.r.t investors. So I wonder what their conclusions will be.

3 scenarios

1) If Nintendo doesn't mention new hardware but the forecast/financial projections they give can only be reached by launching a new platform then I'll still believe they can announce it later. In fact, it will basically have to be the case.

2) If Nintendo mentions that they will launch new hardware this fiscal year then all is as expected basically. I wouldn't expect a full on reveal or date of reveal. I expect they will just say, more information is coming in the summer or in the fall but nothing more to announce at this time

3) If Nintendo makes no hint or reference to new hardware or changing the method of business for the year but then they announce a new console later, I would consider that to be a big deal. People buy and sell shares based off this information and it is intentionally misleading to tell people you are not releasing new hardware or to not bake it into your projections for the year (which people will use to make investment decisions), to go "lol it is coming, those projections were a lie" some months later. This is not how publicly traded companies are to operate. Anyone saying "compaies lie all the time", yeah for trivial shit. For unsubstantiated rumours. Not for your official financial results and outlook.

We literally went through the same thing this exact time last year. Nintendo said we intend to run the business the same way. No new hardware was in their projection given. They did not give indication they were going to launch hardware and people were doing the same thing they are doing now. And I said the same thing. It was obvious the second this report came out that they were going to launch new hardware. And people insisted otherwise. And there was no new hardware because once you read enough year end financial reports, you can tell what a company's general plan is.

So if they make 0 mention OR hint of it, then my assumption is not this fiscal year. And if they go back on that, to me that would both be surprising and not a good look for them. People are going to buy or dump stock based off of this information. It needs to be accurate and it generally is as a result.

And just so we are clear I am not bullshiting, this is the post I made on the topic 2023-05-12 in this thread

There is no way with the forecasted hardware a successor is releasing this year. I really don't understand why anyone still wants to harp on this. The Q&A makes it clear the Switch is the focus for this fiscal year. They clarify no new hardware is baked into the forecast. They clarify it will be difficult to reach 15m. They set 180m software target which could only bebreached if they have big titles lined up.

There is 0 reason to believe new hardware is relasing in 2023. You would have to ignore everything to believe otherwise.

^^^^^^ I'm all for wait and see btw.
 
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Would make for a nice Switch 2 exclusives in the early years, since Xenoblade has become more popular (popular in the internet space, not mainstream sadly)
Idk, I feel like if they just keep making hits they will get their eventually. Xenoblade went from NOA not wanting to localize the game to 2022 GOTY nominee.
My guess is entirely a coin flip. Xenoblade X is the most sensible one because it would mean Monolith Soft is able to release the game onto hardware that could handle it and it'd buy them some time until their new IP is ready... or it's just the new IP.

I'm going to hope it's the latter tbh, because I'm in the mood for more peak fiction.
And this would push NSO sales, even if it is a few thousand.
You know what? I agree with this. For some reason, the 3DS doesn't feel right when I am playing platformers.
 
Here's the entirety of what Nintendo forecasts each year, where the impact of new hardware would actually be included. (They also do hardware and software unit sales forecasts, but only for systems that have been released or are being released imminently.)

image.webp


These numbers are all highly cumulative, and there's no breakdown. I think it's most likely the case that the impact of new hardware launching in March -- the last month of the financial year -- would be so obfuscated that there's nothing for Nintendo to discuss or explain. All of the topline numbers are very likely to be down regardless, with a late in the FY launch of hardware, new costs, and declining Switch sales (especially since I've been assured Switch sales will immediately hit rock bottom if/when they do announce the new hardware). If that's the case, is some investor really going to ask "why aren't they even MORE down?" And is Nintendo going to be compelled to answer that they're planning new hardware, instead of just saying "we plan to convey the appeal of Nintendo Switch" and "we are planning a variety of products and services that we believe will drive sales?"

Okay but why do this if you're announcing the system with a press release in two weeks.
 
So many times I've had my hopes raised during the evening only to have them dashed the next morning, that I feel numb. 😶 Could this be inner peace?... or depression? 🤔
 
I’m actually curious, if Nintendo acknowledges the system tonight, can developers just start mentioning they’re working on the game immediately or is it the usual NDA.
I'd imagine there's a fat NDA but Nintendo would just give some partners the go ahead, probably the ones that won't be featured in any upcoming showcases
 
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It sometimes feels that the constant, "will they/won't they" speculation surrounding the Switch Pro and the Switch 2 since 2021 has irrevocably poisoned speculation. Because of this, people are now conditioned to believe that Nintendo will discard any logical announcement timeline in order to provide the bare minimum at the absolute last second, which makes no sense aside from "because Nintendo".
What exactly is illogical about waiting until they're ready to advertise their projects to consumers to formally announce them? That's Nintendo's typical MO across the board these days, and hardware is not so special that it must necessarily be different.
 
My thinking is that if the Switch 2 delay is software related, that means Nintendo themselves could be unsure when the software will be ready, making it hard for them to set a definitive date. And Nintendo knows that the launch titles will be extremely important, they can't fast track the launch games and release launch games that are a buggy mess, instead they will just release the hardware later than march 2025 if they feel they have to.
 
What exactly is illogical about waiting until they're ready to advertise their projects to consumers to formally announce them? That's Nintendo's typical MO across the board these days, and hardware is not so special that it must necessarily be different.
1. Hardware costs hundreds of dollars, meaning consumers have to make more precise plans about how to buy hardware.
2. Hardware releases are much more important to the company than each individual software releases.
3. Hardware releases are extremely important to a huge amount of non-Nintendo companies.

Every time we've done this "well, Nintendo could just announce the Switch 2 a couple months before release!" stuff, it has never happened because it makes no sense.
 
1. Hardware costs hundreds of dollars, meaning consumers have to make more precise plans about how to buy hardware.
2. Hardware releases are much more important to the company than each individual software releases.
3. Hardware releases are extremely important to a huge amount of non-Nintendo companies.

Every time we've done this "well, Nintendo could just announce the Switch 2 a couple months before release!" stuff, it has never happened because it makes no sense.
The only logical reason is that due to software being the reason for the internal delay Nintendo is not 100 % sure when the software will be ready, so they can't reveal any hardware now because that would mean that they have to release hardware within this FY, which they as of now don't know if they will be able to do based on them not knowing if the software delay can last until mid or late 2025.

So Nintendo's only plan now is to drag everything out until their developers tell them good news about software being able to hit march 2025 date. Pretty unprofessional but for whatever reason they have stumbled into a development mess on the Switch 2 launch games.
 
The only logical reason is that due to software being the reason for the internal delay Nintendo is not 100 % sure when the software will be ready, so they can't reveal any hardware now because that would mean that they have to release hardware within this FY, which they as of now don't know if they will be able to do based on them not knowing if the software delay can last until mid or late 2025.

So Nintendo's only plan now is to drag everything out until their developers tell them good news about software being able to hit march 2025 date. Pretty unprofessional but for whatever reason they have hit a development slog on the Switch 2 launch games.

I generally agree that they are waiting for 3D Mario, Pokemon ZA, Metroid Prime 4, Mario Kart Next, and Animal Crossing Next to be in a state where they're confident that they can release these games one after another and some of these titles are falling behind their projected release dates. That is my theory as well (idk if it's unprofessional or not, but it is a little weird to be this opaque about future plans)
 
I really don't think we are going to get any valuable information on Nintendo's plans on the next hardware or software from tomorrow's Investor Meeting. I honestly don't think we will get any news at all this month from Nintendo beyond promotional material for Paper Mario and Luigi's Mansion 2. Maybe an NSO drop sometime this month but I feel like that will be it.

My guess is a General Direct sometime in June which will detail some new games for the Switch's second half of the year.

I honestly won't be surprised if we don't get any details or really juicy leaks regarding Switch 2 at all this year. If we do it would be late in the year.

I don't know. I think this is just going to be a really lame year for Nintendo fans and Nintendo obviously is dragging out the d Switch as long as possible and they really really really don't want people knowing or thinking anything about the Switch successor. Nintendo wants fans to believe the thing does not exist.

Hey on the bright side it could be worse. Imagine being a Sony fan and barely getting no games at all. Xbox has a few games but I can say none of them appeal to me so Nintendo is still better off in my opinion lol.

Bad year for gaming in my opinion. Hopefully 2025 will be better and all our Nintendo hopes and dreams come true. :)
 
Digital Foundry did a video on ROG Ally just getting Frame gen. The amd version. How can they get it but the Switch 2 can't?
FSR doesn't have the same hardware requirements as DLSS, so it will run on almost anything. That doesn't necessarily mean it will run well or be practical.
Wouldn’t our best estimate be which game will be arriving on Switch 2.

Like we know that the next far cry and FF7 remake, might be arriving on the Switch if the rumour are supposed to be taken serious.

Like how likely would it be that a Switch 2 with a 8NM could run both of these games?
Whether it's 4, 8, or 16nm, it will have the same capabilities, same RAM, etc. The difference shouldn't be one of making some games no longer possible, but probably no longer possible at the same frame rate and/or resolution.
Okay, but literally why refuse to acknowledge it now if you're announcing it in two weeks.
That one seems easy. Why be silent for years waiting to announce something exactly the way you wanted to, then just veer off that path with only weeks to go?
 
Honestly I’m not interested if they will acknowledge the new console or not, I want to see it. Waiting for october.
 
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I generally agree that they are waiting for 3D Mario, Pokemon ZA, Metroid Prime 4, Mario Kart Next, and Animal Crossing Next to be in a state where they're confident that they can release these games one after another and some of these titles are falling behind their projected release dates. That is my theory as well (idk if it's unprofessional or not, but it is a little weird to be this opaque about future plans)
Yeah i feel that if they were 100 % sure they could hit a march 2025 date they would probably just reveal hardware now, i think the whole ''Nintendo plan to release Switch 2 in march 2025 at the earliest'' is the whole reason behind the announcement hick up. Its true that march 2025 is the earliest date Switch 2 can be released, and that its not a definitive date for Nintendo due to their software struggles.

I actually think Nintendo themselves are very disappointed they can't reveal the Switch 2 launch date due to software struggles, because it will lead to their stock price tanking due to no positive news coming from Nintendo at their FY briefing.
 
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FSR doesn't have the same hardware requirements as DLSS, so it will run on almost anything. That doesn't necessarily mean it will run well or be practical.

Whether it's 4, 8, or 16nm, it will have the same capabilities, same RAM, etc. The difference shouldn't be one of making some games no longer possible, but probably no longer possible at the same frame rate and/or resolution.

That one seems easy. Why be silent for years waiting to announce something exactly the way you wanted to, then just veer off that path with only weeks to go?

Why would you make a plan that had you intentionally mislead investors so you could announce it two weeks later, lol.

(Also, there's been zero buzz at all about a full announcement anytime soon. Any near future announcement would just be a press release)
 
Why would you make a plan that had you intentionally mislead investors so you could announce it two weeks later, lol.

(Also, there's been zero buzz at all about a full announcement anytime soon. Any near future announcement would just be a press release)
Right. At best we’d get an acknowledgement of existence, but nothing else. I wouldn’t expect a full blow out until later in the summer/fall, as long as the software they need for their first year is progressing to where it needs to be.
 
This is also could be an inopportune time for Nintendo to have a FY projection because the delay seems genuinely last minute and I would bet Nintendo still isn’t sure if the system will launch this FY, even if they want it to.
 
Last time they did this, it was to upgrade the gaming wall TV.

Back then some of us was speculating it was to update theme of the area to Princess Peach.
To be fair, we discussed that TV. It seems to be considerably more than full HD, to the point current games look kind of muddy on it.


The fact they're back at it again has me wiggling my eyebrow.

What are you doing with that custom built ~4K TV Nintendo.

And what do you intend to show on it.
 
For those who don't have a Nintendo Store or never went, what is this gaming wall? What's the last time this went for renovations?

-- EDIT --
Saw the TV mentions. It was a long time ago?

about 4 months ago. The "Gaming Wall" is in NYC Nintendo Store, upstairs (2nd floor)
 
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