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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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BloodMoon said:
Without being disrespectful, are we not putting too much weight on necro’s opinions?
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My man is only speculating, meanwhile we’re trying to deceiver him

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Re: Macronix

My recollection is that prior statements linking 96 layer V-NAND to Nintendo were specious or unsourced. This is at least explicit. And yeah, I'm with @LiC here, it's been "next quarter" for a couple of years. If I had to guess, the reason that all of these "96 layer is coming, Nintendo is the customer" reports have come out with plausible deniability by Macronix is because Macronix is trying to goose their profile without committing to something that a partner could deny.

Even if the current V-NAND timeline is accurate, it's not targeting Switch Next launch. This feels strongly like Macronix not being able to deliver in time. Of course, that's what Samsung is for.

"Could be good, could be bad" on the Mask ROM situation - speculating, but I wonder if Macronix knows that Mask ROM won't be used in Switch Next carts at all
 
Hosermess said:
Holding 400 meetings to repeat the same publicly available info is...something I can totally see Nintendo doing lol a huge waste of time but a gesture of respect I guess.

On the other hand, maybe there was some reason (at one point) every analyst was "predicting" it would be released in late '24. Tinfoily? Little bit.
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Thraktor said:
Those 400 "meetings" are every contact they had with investors over the year. They have a lot of investors, so that ends up being a lot of meetings. They have to answer questions at these meetings, and yeah, they're going to give the same non-answers they give at the public Q&As to questions about future hardware.

In fact, they have to give the same non-answers. Giving information preferentially to some investors before it's made public could be considered insider trading if those investors act upon it (ie increase or decrease their shareholdings). Given the impact the Switch 2 announcement could have on the share price, it's the last thing they'd want to risk insider trading charges on by letting slip to investors.
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There are NDA related documents for stock holdings. I’ve heard of companies inviting some of their bigger shareholders (usually reps from banks and other companies) to sign an NDA that also includes language that their holdings must be frozen until the information in the NDA is public. Kinda what Kraktor mentioned but they actually do give some decent nuggets of info like target release and most importantly marketing strategy. 400 though? Doubt it. Probably like 30-40 max lol.

This is secondhand information on my part though. I have never come close to owning the amount of shares that would be required for me to be included on something like this. It would take tens of millions.
 
Ecliptor said:
I hope the site problems weren't due to that pdf talking about the past meeting. Wouldn't bode well for when we have actual news lol
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The issues were not traffic related (nor were they exacerbated by traffic, which has remained pretty steady as of late).
 
Damn, I saw that Grubb tweet, then this site was down and I really thought something big has happened and now it‘s about that IR report that obviously just recaps the Q&As from last FY ? What a letdown.
 
Steve said:
Wouldn’t our best estimate be which game will be arriving on Switch 2.

Like we know that the next far cry and FF7 remake, might be arriving on the Switch if the rumour are supposed to be taken serious.

Like how likely would it be that a Switch 2 with a 8NM could run both of these games?
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8nm would have no bearing on if these can be ported. they would be regardless

WestEgg said:
It wasn’t a server or traffic issue, we found a bug in the system that had to be fixed.
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200w.gif


some check if people went missing
 
hannibunny2411 said:
Damn, I saw that Grubb tweet, then this site was down and I really thought something big has happened and now it‘s about that IR report that obviously just recaps the Q&As from last FY ? What a letdown.
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Hey, we don't know, Grubb could have been recalling one of the other commonly misinterpreted statements. Like when Furukawa said plans for next FY would be discussed next FY -- not in relation to new hardware at all, but because someone asked him what their outlook was on Switch sales for next FY, when it was only the Q3 results so they obviously weren't going to talk about the next FY forecast at that point. That one also got thrown around for a while like he had confirmed new hardware plans would be discussed in the next meeting for some reason.
 
Hermii said:
If its clocked that high, either Nvidia made 8nm as efficient as 4nm, or its 4nm.
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Or to play devil's advocate, a process node in between (e.g. TSMC's N6 process node), since frequencies aren't always 100% indicative of the process node being used.
 
TheBlueBerryJelly said:
Can we deduct through past console reveals if acknowledging it before the meeting through media channels or in the investors meeting is more like Nintendo's style?
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Not sure, really.

I just think they'll be matter-of-fact about how all consoles usually have a successor planned eventually but nothing definitive like a date or a plan. Though we could have another Nintendo NX situation where they continue to talk about how the ecosystem Switch started will continue and evolve since they could try supporting Switch a few more years even after the successor has landed and the time they'll need to transition Nintendo online accounts will be in consideration.

I don't think they'll NOT talk about it, I just don't think the details will be very specific if they do.
 
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TSR3 said:
I'm not sure about "betting" (that may be a mis-translation if you read that), but it does look like he's responded to @Giancarlo's question about the likelihood of 8nm with the answer of "low"
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Yes, i asked him what is the likehood of Switch sucessor having a 8NM, and he answered me: low
 
oldpuck said:
Re: Macronix

My recollection is that prior statements linking 96 layer V-NAND to Nintendo were specious or unsourced. This is at least explicit. And yeah, I'm with @LiC here, it's been "next quarter" for a couple of years. If I had to guess, the reason that all of these "96 layer is coming, Nintendo is the customer" reports have come out with plausible deniability by Macronix is because Macronix is trying to goose their profile without committing to something that a partner could deny.

Even if the current V-NAND timeline is accurate, it's not targeting Switch Next launch. This feels strongly like Macronix not being able to deliver in time. Of course, that's what Samsung is for.

"Could be good, could be bad" on the Mask ROM situation - speculating, but I wonder if Macronix knows that Mask ROM won't be used in Switch Next carts at all
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I think their "ROM" category in their reporting doesn't refer to specific technologies, but rather what they sell for a read-only use-case. Or, pretty much what they sell to Nintendo. For instance they saw a spike in ROM sales this time last year coinciding with ToTK, which they alluded to in their reporting, but ToTK is a larger game card, and uses NAND, not XtraROM (not that XtraROM is true mask ROM itself, anyway). As XtraROM is only used for small Switch game cards, I don't expect it to be used for Switch 2.

My reading of the "could be good, could be bad" quote is that Macronix know they're now competing with Samsung, whereas they had the Switch game card market almost all to themselves.

One other slightly curious thing I've noticed is that Macronix haven't published an Annual Report for 2023 yet. Usually they publish them in March, so it's pretty late, particularly after they've already made their first quarterly report for 2024. It wouldn't have any major info in it, but they sometimes mention technology milestones, so if there had been anything relating to either their standard 3D NAND development, or SGVC NAND (if it's still being developed) then it might be somewhat interesting.
 
NintenDuvo said:
I got so happy seeing the site crash thinking something huge was announced or leaked lol
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lol, I thought the same thing.

Loaded up the site this morning and saw it was down, immediately thought that the Switch 2 either leaked in full or Nintendo unveiled it, and raced over to twitter and reddit to check (only for disappointment to set in several seconds later).
 
Don't tell me y'all done crashed the damn site!!! 😭

I'm not expecting anything major tomorrow, not even a tease.
 
So what news are you hoping for in the tomorrow meeting? I can't imagine that Nintendo will say more than "we are working on a successor", which is already known, I would say.
 
Dakhil said:
Or to play devil's advocate, a process node in between (e.g. TSMC's N6 process node), since frequencies aren't always 100% indicative of the process node being used.
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Yea, we can't rule out a wildcard node (any node that's not 8nm or 4nm), but it does seem unlikely.

Anyway, I just listened to the latest DF Direct and Rich said he considered 750mhz to be the absolute best possible scenario on 8nm. Wtf? Didn't expect him to be that ignorant about this topic.

 
The OG Switch has 3 profiles for handheld mode.

307.2MHz
384MHz
460MHz

I don't believe in handheld mode they will go with clocks below the 460MHz of the original. I know wider designs normally lead to lower clocks but it seems pretty unlikely to me when the optimal clock is going to be higher than what it was for the Switch.

So I for my estinates I just take 460MHz as the floor but also the expected. It may not be much higher if it is higher, maybe ~ 500MHz tops. But I can't see it going below 460MHz personally.
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If they don't mention new hardware tomorrow then I would assume release is outside of the fiscal year. Maybe the announce it "formally" at the general sharehders meeting in June but tbh I don't see why if they are setting their fiscal year plans and they plan a major launch, why that wouldn't be mentioned here. This is the appropriate place and time to do so.

You're going to be giving us forecasts for the year and those need to be accurate as to what is actually in the pipeline.
 
Major Marvelous said:
From what I can tell, "Sim, sou iludido"/"I'm deluded" is referring to the clock speeds, not the node size, so the comment is just his hopes for the console if it ends up being 8nm.

I'm not sure why someone would hope for 8nm over a lower size node anyways, besides maybe hoping it would lower the price.
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Yeah, you are right... i'm supposed to say if the node is 8nm, the dream is 500~600mhz... my fault.
 
I went back and looked at the May fiscal report of the last three years. There is usually a decent portion dedicated to the upcoming year and the highlights of what has been already announced.

2021- Nintendo was in a position of power and the fantastic sales numbers spoke for them selves.
2022- Most of the Line up was already announced with Splatoon 3 and Pokemon SV being the drivers for the year
2023- Coming off the big success of Mario Movie and excitement for Tears of the Kingdom.

This year again seems to be an outlier since there really isn't any big successes to highlight and there really isn't anything announced of note to bring up either. This meeting could go in any number of directions, but if I were a betting man I would say it will be very conservative, and not have much for us.
 
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