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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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darthdiablo said:
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Yup just go to sleep like regular, don't be this guy.
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Is this... Miyamoto?
 
Any possibility that Switch 2 software is delayed so bad that they aren’t even sure if the console can be released next year? if so, could they make a new Switch revision to stem the tide for a while more?
 
Concernt said:
To be fair, we discussed that TV. It seems to be considerably more than full HD, to the point current games look kind of muddy on it.


The fact they're back at it again has me wiggling my eyebrow.

What are you doing with that custom built ~4K TV Nintendo.

And what do you intend to show on it.
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It would be interesting if they were replacing the Switch unit connected to the TV but still just playing switch games for now. Smart way to conceal an announcement if it isn't happening soon
 
indospot said:
It would be interesting if they were replacing the Switch unit connected to the TV but still just playing switch games for now. Smart way to conceal an announcement if it isn't happening soon
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They probably wouldn't do they until AFTER announcement for just, all sorts of reasons. Then again, I could see them using a development PC running the compatibility software if they want to flub with resolutions without strictly revealing anything.
 
Shoulder said:
Was it a week or so ago when the Bezel engine was reported to have a max frame rate of 240, which raised some eyebrows for sure. Is it possible the OFA is actually in Drake, and it would allow, similar to what DLSS can accomplish for higher resolutions, Frame Generation up to 240fps?

Though perhaps it seems rather overkill, but between that Bezel update tweet, and now the continued talk of OFA made me think if those two are related. That said, I have doubts the Drake CPU would even have the grunt to render games at such a high frame rate, even with frame generation.
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I believe Alex Battaglia from Digital Foundry mentioned that Nvidia's frame generation only starts to become beneficial when the game runs at ~80 fps. (I assume ~40 fps before DLSS is enabled.)

So I think that depends on if the Nintendo Switch's successor has enough power before enabling DLSS and Nvidia's frame generation.
 
LiC said:
Here's the entirety of what Nintendo forecasts each year, where the impact of new hardware would actually be included. (They also do hardware and software unit sales forecasts, but only for systems that have been released or are being released imminently.)

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These numbers are all highly cumulative, and there's no breakdown. I think it's most likely the case that the impact of new hardware launching in March -- the last month of the financial year -- would be so obfuscated that there's nothing for Nintendo to discuss or explain. All of the topline numbers are very likely to be down regardless, with a late in the FY launch of hardware, new costs, and declining Switch sales (especially since I've been assured Switch sales will immediately hit rock bottom if/when they do announce the new hardware). If that's the case, is some investor really going to ask "why aren't they even MORE down?" And is Nintendo going to be compelled to answer that they're planning new hardware, instead of just saying "we plan to convey the appeal of Nintendo Switch" and "we are planning a variety of products and services that we believe will drive sales?"
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Nintendo gives a hardware projection at these meetings. They initially projected selling 15 million Switches for FY 2024, which they recently revised to 15.5 million in February (we will find out the final actual figure tomorrow). That’s what I was referring to. If Nintendo projects a hardware projection greater than 15.5 million for next FY, then that is them essentially confirming they are releasing the next Switch in the next FY.
 
Pillydillsy said:
Ya’ll ready to jump into likely disappointment with blind faith in the process Fami-gang?
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I think I'll trust the process, given that the other option is: a deranged hodgepodge of variously believing and/or not believing reliable reporting (often from the same source), just to fill hours doom-mongering and panicking about why exactly the marketing campaign for a console hasn't started 10 months before release, which is apparently past some arbitrary point when you're supposed to have done that. That way madness lies.
 
Mr Swine said:
Any possibility that Switch 2 software is delayed so bad that they aren’t even sure if the console can be released next year? if so, could they make a new Switch revision to stem the tide for a while more?
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If that's the case I think they would have to rely on third party games. Then Metroid Prime 4 would have no choice but to be a launch game. We wouldn't have seen Monster Hunter Wilds nor Trials of Mana as I think Nintendo would secure marketing rights for the game. Then, and this is a big IF, I think Nintendo would try to secure Marketing rights for GTA 6. Not exclusive but you know what I mean.
 
nenned said:
Nintendo gives a hardware projection at these meetings. They initially projected selling 15 million Switches for FY 2024, which they recently revised to 15.5 million in February (we will find out the final actual figure tomorrow). That’s what I was referring to. If Nintendo projects a hardware projection greater than 15.5 million for next FY, then that is them essentially confirming they are releasing the next Switch in the next FY.
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Sure, if Nintendo projects a number greater than 15M units that would be significant. . .

However, a March launch means at most 3 weeks of sales included in FY 2025. A FY 2025 target could be below 15M and still include Switch 2 sales targets. For example Switch sold ~1M units in its first month.
 
Foltzie said:
Sure, if Nintendo projects a number greater than 15M units that would be significant. . .

However, a March launch means at most 3 weeks of sales included in FY 2025. A FY 2025 target could be below 15M and still include Switch 2 sales targets. For example Switch sold ~1M units in its first month.
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50/50, since the Switch 2 will have a much higher hype surrounding it and it's also an iteration of the hybrid console.

I can see the Switch 2 overcoming the switch sales in it's first years, but i can also see the Switch 2 not having longer legs in its later years compared to the Switch.
 
Steve said:
50/50, since the Switch 2 will have a much higher hype surrounding it and it's also an iteration of the hybrid console.

I can see the Switch 2 overcoming the switch sales in it's first years, but i can also see the Switch 2 not having longer legs in its later years compared to the Switch.
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TSMC 4N? Switch 2 will have longer legs.

SEC8N? Likely shorter.
 
omniryu said:
If that's the case I think they would have to rely on third party games. Then Metroid Prime 4 would have no choice but to be a launch game. We wouldn't have seen Monster Hunter Wilds nor Trials of Mana as I think Nintendo would secure marketing rights for the game. Then, and this is a big IF, I think Nintendo would try to secure Marketing rights for GTA 6. Not exclusive but you know what I mean.
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I don't ever see Nintendo having marketing right's to GTA 6, that pretty much a pipe dream, but having it be in a portable system, would be more than enough having hype for the Switch 2 third party.

But i can personally see Nintendo having MH marketing rights.
 
Steve said:
I don't ever see Nintendo having marketing right's to GTA 6, that pretty much a pipe dream, but having it be in a portable system, would be more than enough having hype for the Switch 2 third party.

But i can personally see Nintendo having MH marketing rights.
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Well, Rockstar would never do an exclusive I definitely would see Nintendo push commercials and even a bundle with GTA 6. After all, they did it with Fortnite.
 
Mr Swine said:
Any possibility that Switch 2 software is delayed so bad that they aren’t even sure if the console can be released next year? if so, could they make a new Switch revision to stem the tide for a while more?
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Software delayed SO HARD that it both pushes the entire third party library back a year and allows time for R&D on an entire placeholder Switch 1 model? That'd be a hell of a thing.
 
darthdiablo said:
TSMC 4N? Switch 2 will have longer legs.

SEC8N? Likely shorter.
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I mean by sales, since i can see it being a NES to SNES situation where the Switch 2 sells less compare to the Switch (until we get the next virus).

But having TSMC 4N would be a absolute dream, i can maybe see it happening, only because the Tegra 239 is custom made for Nintendo in mind, compare to the Tegra 1X.
 
nenned said:
Nintendo gives a hardware projection at these meetings. They initially projected selling 15 million Switches for FY 2024, which they recently revised to 15.5 million in February (we will find out the final actual figure tomorrow). That’s what I was referring to. If Nintendo projects a hardware projection greater than 15.5 million for next FY, then that is them essentially confirming they are releasing the next Switch in the next FY.
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FWIW, specific unit forecasts are not required. They can combine it with the Switch, as they did with the 3DS initially(in respect to DS forecasts), or they can not include the unit forecasts at all, which is what they did with the original Switch. That said, they would likely want to note the circumstances there, as they did in the above cases, if they are including the sales in their revenue forecast.

Foltzie said:
Sure, if Nintendo projects a number greater than 15M units that would be significant. . .

However, a March launch means at most 3 weeks of sales included in FY 2025. A FY 2025 target could be below 15M and still include Switch 2 sales targets. For example Switch sold ~1M units in its first month.
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Switch shipped nearly 3m WW in it's first month. We can probably assume Nintendo will stuff ~5m in the initial shipments if they can.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
Software delayed SO HARD that it both pushes the entire third party library back a year and allows time for R&D on an entire placeholder Switch 1 model? That'd be a hell of a thing.
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I can only see Delay being because of the Next 3D Mario.

Heck the Switch was delayed to polish a couple of games, but i think, mostly because of Botw and Mario Odyssey.

Like Nintendo are probably in the headspace that they Need a killer app to be a launch title and 3D mario fits the bill.
 
Hermii said:
Yea, we can't rule out a wildcard node (any node that's not 8nm or 4nm), but it does seem unlikely.

Anyway, I just listened to the latest DF Direct and Rich said he considered 750mhz to be the absolute best possible scenario on 8nm. Wtf? Didn't expect him to be that ignorant about this topic.

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I was baffled by this as well. I can't possibly imagine such a crazy high GPU clock speed in portable mode even on TSMC 4N.

Also the distribution seems to make no sense in that claim he quoted on. Why would portable mode be 800MHz and docked "only" 1.3GHz? Given the insane gap in resolutions between modes this time docked should see a more than double increase if anything.

I can't see a measly 62.5% increase going to cut it for the jump from 1080p to 4K, unless Nintendo & Nvidia got an ace up their sleeves when they designed this chip and docked actually doesn't need that much more for whatever reason.

I would expect something around 550-600MHz on TSMC 4N and 420-460MHz on Samsung 8nm. (Or 7LPH if it actually exists and is used for T239.)
 
Nintendo's projection for Switch units sold will not include Switch 2 sales, so I suspect we will be seeing a forecast of 10-12 million Switch units sold for fiscal 2025. The thing to keep an eye on is the forecast for profit and sales revenue. If the sales revenue seems generous compared to expected hardware and software estimates, then it likely includes the next hardware. Switch has been such an enormous success that I can see it selling 3 million units in its first month and a new 3D Mario will have a near 100% attach rate. So even with just a month of Switch 2 hardware and software sales, it could move the needle in a meaningful way.
 
Do we know who'll be directing the Next smash game?

Also having smash be for a 2025 would be quite fitting, since Splatoon will most likely be skipping a game in the launch year of the switch 2. Also it would give Sakurai a 4-5 year dev time

Like having Mario Kart, Smash and 3D Mario would make for a overkill of a line up.

Summer-Mario Kart
Holiday-Smash
 
Danny said:
And in reality they will say ''We have nothing to announce regarding new hardware releases. Please understand''.

Furukawa tomorrow:

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"Nintendo Switch is entering its 8th year, we're always working on new hardware and new fun ways to play, there is nothing we can't say at this time. Please stay tuned to upcoming Nintendo Directs for hardware related announcements"
 
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