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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Reader mode
"Analysts don’t foresee Nintendo being able to bolster sales of the Switch with hit games the way it has done in the past and, moreover, the company isn’t expected to release a successor console for at least another year.
“We expect Nintendo will not release the next-generation hardware over the next 12 months,” UBS Securities analyst Kenji Fukuyama said in a letter to clients ahead of the earnings report. “Nintendo’s valuation is very likely to shrink until the launch of the new hardware.”

Oh wow the pain of having to go a complete whole year with no mention of new hardware
 
I feel that Nintendo would have higher expectations for hardware sales if they were planning to release new hardware this year. Maybe we'll get a Switchcessor shortly after the end of the current financial year. That would make the Switch the longest-running home console Nintendo's had to date by a fair margin (not the most enduring handheld, though. I doubt we'll ever see something outlast the OG Gameboy).
 
Starting to think that Nintendon't is alive and well and correct.
They're the perfect Japanese company, amazing but stubbornly refuse/change and learn from previous mistakes.
 
Corim said:
I feel that Nintendo would have higher expectations for hardware sales if they were planning to release new hardware this year. Maybe we'll get a Switchcessor shortly after the end of the current financial year. That would make the Switch the longest-running home console Nintendo's had to date by a fair margin (not the most enduring handheld, though. I doubt we'll ever see something outlast the OG Gameboy).
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Or it's just not included. The Q&A remains to be seen, but there don't seem to be any strong indications of any sort with respect to hardware timeframes.
 
If they know about as much as we do, why react this way then? This thread can be so dramatic...literally no one was expecting hardware to be revealed here and thats's what happened
 
This is a pretty effective way of ensuring you do not have a “smooth transition” into the next generation, and tank your stock value.
Assuming they do actually do nothing for what is basically almost two more full years.
 
SiG said:
You do know such unwanted pessimistic statements are quite bannable?
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So, only happy clapping is permissible?
When Mochizuki reports on Switch Pro we do backflips but when he reports new hardware not expected in the next year, we can’t be disappointed and react to it?
 
Armoured_Bear said:
So, only happy clapping is permissible?
When Mochizuki reports on Switch Pro we do backflips but when he reports new hardware not expected in the next year, we can’t be disappointed and react to it?
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Never said it wasn't okay to be disappointed, but all this "Nintendo never learns"/"Nintendo gonna Nintendo" catcall remarks are getting to be downright trolling.
 
Unfortunate, but unsurprising given how dead quiet it has been. I stuck with my guess that they might say something, but it was definitely a long shot. I'll be moving my expectations to 2nd half 2024(hopefully not beyond) now that we are past the FY briefing. If it was releasing in the FY there should have been some kind of press release either before or with the FY release to indicate it was coming, so they could it include it with the financial forecasts. There's not going to be a an update mid FY to add millions of units of hardware and related cash flows to their forecasting. It will be curious if we ever get a decent post mortem via journalists as to what happened with the hardware that was apparently canceled.

Regarding the Switch itself, that 15m number is a bit optimistic, but that's the norm for Nintendo. They may have to revise it down a million or two later in the year of the current trajectory holds though. We'll see what Zelda does for it.
 
If new hardware is included in the 15M forecast if feels too low.
If new hardware is not included but will release it feels way too high just for the Switch.

Somehow 15M seems like the perfect number for yet another fiscal year with just the Switch out.
 
Conspiracy theory in my head is Sony and Nintendo have an alliance making this holiday free for PS5 redesign adoption with Big Stuff™ like FFXVI, FFVII Rebirth and Spidey while the next holiday Nintendo takes its turn. 😐
 
0
Thugstas said:
wait
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I also still have my fingers crossed, it wouldn’t be the first time there was basically nothing happening and then a few weeks later Bam! News!

But they do have to do something, you can fill this year with whatever you’re gonna scrape together but if hardware is holiday 2024 what in gods name are you possibly going to fill the 11 months leading up to it with??
 
SiG said:
Never said it wasn't okay to be disappointed, but all this "Nintendo never learns"/"Nintendo gonna Nintendo" catcall remarks are getting to be downright trolling.
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It's not trolling, Nintendo ARE (according to respected analysts) are making the most ridiculous mistake again of not releasing hardware at the right time and letting momentum drop completely. It's stating a fact.
AND non-mods playing ban police isn't nice IMO.
 
As usual, I'm somewhat perplexed that this briefing has changed people's positions at all. Like, it's pretty intentionally engineered not to answer the question of when they're releasing new hardware.
 
It's always the same with Nintendo.

They have a very popular console and they want to squeeze as much money they can out of it, even if it means having a really bad transition to their new system.

If they're smart, they release Switch 2 this year and have some cross-gen titles.
 
Derilian said:
I also still have my fingers crossed, it wouldn’t be the first time there was basically nothing happening and then a few weeks later Bam! News!

But they do have to do something, you can fill this year with whatever you’re gonna scrape together but if hardware is holiday 2024 what in gods name are you possibly going to fill the 11 months leading up to it with??
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  • Fire Emblem 4 remake
  • 2D Mario
  • Metroid Prime 4
  • Tomodachi Life
  • Wind Waker HD / Twilight Princess HD
  • Paper Mario TTYD HD
  • Ring Fit Adventure 2
  • Animal Crossing spinoff
  • Xenoblade Warriors
  • Astral Chain 2
  • Rhythm Heaven

There you go, 11 games that can reasonably release on Switch by the end of 2024. Plus a lot of DLC.
 
Homura said:
  • Fire Emblem 4 remake
  • 2D Mario
  • Metroid Prime 4
  • Tomodachi Life
  • Wind Waker HD / Twilight Princess HD
  • Paper Mario TTYD HD
  • Ring Fit Adventure 2
  • Animal Crossing spinoff
  • Xenoblade Warriors
  • Astral Chain 2
  • Rhythm Heaven

There you go, 11 games that can reasonably release on Switch by the end of 2024. Plus a lot of DLC.
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I'm 80% sure that at least 4 of those games would have been announced by now.
 
VGC is reporting that Nintendo says no new hardware is coming in the next 12 months.

Nintendo reports Switch sales slowdown and warns no new hardware this year​

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But their own article only says:

Furukawa added that no new or upgraded hardware is factored into Nintendo’s annual forecast.
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The only mention of no new hardware is from analysts. Is there another quote I’m missing?
 
Yeah, no, this changes nothing for me. Until we get that Q&A in a few days, I see no reason to believe that Drake is a whole 18 months off. Seriously, we shouldn't be losing our heads over this.
 
Homura said:
  • Fire Emblem 4 remake
  • 2D Mario
  • Metroid Prime 4
  • Tomodachi Life
  • Wind Waker HD / Twilight Princess HD
  • Paper Mario TTYD HD
  • Ring Fit Adventure 2
  • Animal Crossing spinoff
  • Xenoblade Warriors
  • Astral Chain 2
  • Rhythm Heaven

There you go, 11 games that can reasonably release on Switch by the end of 2024. Plus a lot of DLC.
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I agree, those are definitely things you can put out and it’s basically all I can think of as well, but they’re not games that will sell systems or push huge sales at all, especially after seeing Prime Remakes only 1 mil sales.

But then again in the last year I guess you don’t really need system sellers so much as just enough to placate the fans until your shiny new box comes along.
 
0
D36 said:
Didn't we go through this last quarter?
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we truly are in his world
xenoblade3-xenoblade-chronicles3.gif
 
karmitt said:
VGC is reporting that Nintendo says no new hardware is coming in the next 12 months.



But their own article only says:



The only mention of no new hardware is from analysts. Is there another quote I’m missing?
Click to expand...
Analysts do click bait as well
 
dotnetguy said:
Ah come on they were hardly going to announce REDACTED during an incredibly dry financial update. It's not the time or place.
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It's not that they didn't announce anything. It's that their expectations for the Switch sales over the next year are too high to really expect an announcement anytime soon.
 
0
I stopped being especially optimistic about any specific launch window since Zelda’s being missed.

That said, if Nintendo only said this forecast does not include new hardware, not that they won’t be releasing new hardware, we can hardly infer anything from it.

All the quietness about H2 and a lower current generation forecast certainly have me scratching my head. If we don’t see new hardware soon I can only assume it’s because Nintendo insisted that it be something more than just a better Switch, and it’s taken them a bit more time to get there.
 
YugamiSekai said:
I'm 80% sure that at least 4 of those games would have been announced by now.
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I’m 100% sure they would have had several of those titles to also help out during the Switch-Next off years.

There’s literally going to be a new 3D Zelda until like 2030.

They’ll need to pad out the in between years with something.
 
dotnetguy said:
Ah come on they were hardly going to announce REDACTED during an incredibly dry financial update. It's not the time or place.
Click to expand...
Exactly, I was only hoping for some form of general plan for the forseeable future other than sales projections because there’s nothing on the horizon whatsoever beyond Florida park and Pikmin.

But for all we know come mid July we’ll be looking back and laughing at all of this!
 
D36 said:
Yeah, no, this changes nothing for me. Until we get that Q&A in a few days, I see no reason to believe that Drake is a whole 18 months off. Seriously, we shouldn't be losing our heads over this.
Click to expand...

Really?

I’d say after spring 2024 that Christmas 2024 was the next most likely release window.

Gives Nintendo’s core teams time to have their software pipeline ready as well.
 
The following sentence is in the Japanese version of Bloomberg report of the latest Nintendo earnings, but not in the English version:

また現時点でハードの価格改定の予定はなく、次世代機については「常に新しいハードの開発は進めているが、この場で申し上げることはない」と述べた。

Machine translation with my edits: He also stated that presently there is no plan to revise the hardware prices, and regarding the next-gen console, "we are constantly developing new hardware, but I have nothing to announce at this time".
 
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