• Hey everyone, staff have documented a list of banned content and subject matter that we feel are not consistent with site values, and don't make sense to host discussion of on Famiboards. This list (and the relevant reasoning per item) is viewable here.
  • Do you have audio editing experience and want to help out with the Famiboards Discussion Club Podcast? If so, we're looking for help and would love to have you on the team! Just let us know in the Podcast Thread if you are interested!

StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Nintendo's next Switch will be outdated by the time it comes out (assuming it is Drake). Graphics and CPU tech that came out in 2020 releasing in late 2024 / early 2025. Nice job, Nintendo.

At this rate the Steam Deck 2 should be out before Nintendo's next system.
Tbh, part of this approach might be helping them sell the console at a lower price (which they like doing) while also avoiding selling at a loss (which they also like doing).
 
Well, revising my Oct '23 - Nov '24 prediction to April '24 - Nov '24. (I'm assuming the 2025 quote earlier is a mistake for 2024.)

This isn't a tragedy, just a clarification of the time frame we were probably looking at. 2023 was getting increasingly dicey as a possibility anyway with the lack of rumours from production and retail.
 
0
I personally think H2 2023 and Q1 2024 will contain smaller titles, ports (of which they still have a number to choose from), and DLC. These often have less marketing associated with them and they can still keep sales going. Honestly, from this point on, I think it would be best for Nintendo to keep the more ambitious titles for the next system so that they can make a big splash.
 
The thing about an empty second half, why in the world you would drop Prime 1 in a random spot as if he needed to drop out as soon as possible if you have a empty 2half?
It is clear that Nintendo was surprised about the success of Metroid Prime 1 Remastered. Especially in US they had underdelivered the boxed version, beside it being a direct instant drop. You do this with Indies and small releases, not with something you are confident of having significant sales. That's why it was released in H1. You can rather ask why the Xenoblade DLC was basically thrown out, this had been a nice instant drop for the Aug/Sep Direct.

So MP1 was released because its part of their long term marketing campaign leading to the release of MP4 - I assume as big winter/Q1 24. Things like Xenoblade DLC or also Fire Emblem are more surprising to me.
 
Just wanna ask, how is this report any indication that 2023 is dead because I don't get it. A lot of the reports suggesting next year are either from insiders, like the Nikkei article or dubious at best like Mochi. Not to start anything, but are we sure we aren't jumping the gun or going off of confirmation bias?
 
Last edited:
I personally think H2 2023 and Q1 2024 will contain smaller titles, ports (of which they still have a number to choose from), and DLC. These often have less marketing associated with them and they can still keep sales going. Honestly, from this point on, I think it would be best for Nintendo to keep the more ambitious titles for the next system so that they can make a big splash.
Sure, you can do that. Nintendo has enough money to get through this unchartered territory. But thats not how investors work, they jump ship and the stocks plumbs. As Furukawa and co also get paid in stocks, they must be very confident in their next big release, whenever it is. Lets see how the market will react now and after TOTK.
 
There needs to be a goddamn documentary on what the hell has been going on with the Switch Pro/Switch 2, it feels like Nintendo's next big hardware is some kind of eldritch artifact at this point with how much reports keep changing
 
Note that Nikkei Japan and Nikkei Asia are saying different things.

Nikkei Japan: [Furukawa] also declined to comment on the timing of [next-gen] launch, but many in the stock market expect it to be after the fiscal year ending March 2025. (2025? I don't know if that's a typo or these investors are really that pessimistic.)

Nikkei Asia: "Development seems to be progressing well," a source close to Nintendo told Nikkei Asia. "But a product launch won't happen before next spring at the earliest."

Edit: Added links
 
Not to start anything, but are we sure we aren't jumping the gun or going off of confirmation bias?
I don’t think anyone who believes it is coming 2024 or later would be opposed to it coming this year. Idk if anyone would pick being right before having a Switch 2 earlier.

But the reason people think 2023 is dead is because their forecast for the next year of sales is high enough to indicate it being extremely unlikely that they’d start to market a new machine.
 
I feel like I need @Concernt input

ef0e9cdb-d4d5-430d-9a47-f159de542db8_text.gif
 
We're in May. If they plan to launch something in the next 6 months they would need to be more forward to investors than nothing to announce at this time. The hardware forecast also does not make sense with new hardware launching in Q3. The language they are using is basically, we're going to run our business similar and expect drops. The date for a succesor has been pushed back repeatedly here, the optimism is fun but last year's year end statements suggested similarly that they wouldn't launch new hardware. It will be more obvious when they are.

You can't ward off investors forever, what they say in these meeting and what they forecast can infer a lot even when they say little.
 
Feeling vindicated as a long time holiday 2024 believer lol.

Re: so what does the empty H2 mean? There’s still nothing?

Once again, Metroid Prime 4 is announced and I would bet is going to be dated for like October (based off insider speculation) in the next 6 weeks or so. Dread was announced and dated for October in June.

Sometimes an empty schedule that has no dates yet is just an empty schedule that has no dates yet.

Excited to play my Switch 2 with the next 3D Mario next Christmas
 
I'm curious about the context of the "no new or upgraded hardware is factored into Nintendo’s annual forecast" quote (which is included in Yahoo Finance's reprinting of the Bloomberg article). Did he just say this unprompted, or was it in response to a specific question on the forecasts? If he was just asked a generic question about new hardware, it's a weirdly specific way to answer it. It'll be interesting to see the Q&A transcripts.

Also, I haven't seen any references to "uncharted territory" yet. Have Nintendo entered charted territory?
That caught my eye as well. And a hesitant 15M with an addendum of not including new or upgraded hardware feels like a forecast made to not stir up too much controversy for the time being.

With no hardware announced, forecasting 20M+ for example would obviously be eyebrow raising, and realistically forecasting less than 15M without mentioning plans of new hardware would also be received poorly. But I don’t think investors will care if the OG Switch fails to meet that 15M number in the end if new hardware is announced/released by the end of the FY.

Give a cautiously optimistic forecast for now to hold investors over before being able to officially announce their plans for the future.
 
Note that Nikkei Japan and Nikkei Asia are saying different things.

Nikkei Japan: [Furukawa] also declined to comment on the timing of [next-gen] launch, but many in the stock market expect it to be after the fiscal year ending March 2025. (2025? I don't know if that's a typo or these investors are really that pessimistic.)

Nikkei Asia: "Development seems to be progressing well," a source close to Nintendo told Nikkei Asia. "But a product launch won't happen before next spring at the earliest."

Edit: Added links

Thanks for the info, I also think that 2025 is a typo, I guess they meant the fiscal year 2025 not the calendar year.
 
0
Nintendo's next Switch will be outdated by the time it comes out (assuming it is Drake). Graphics and CPU tech that came out in 2020 releasing in late 2024 / early 2025. Nice job, Nintendo.

At this rate the Steam Deck 2 should be out before Nintendo's next system.
So far, based on Geekerwan's reviews (here and here), the Armv9 CPUs have worse performance per watt in comparison to the Cortex-A78 at lower watts.
ocR1sOg.png

KFEWW3v.png


And Ada Lovelace is practically not that different from Ampere from a GPU architecture standpoint. And Thor, the latest Arm based SoC from Nvidia, has a GPU based on Ada Lovelace, and is planned for release in 2025. So Drake's still the best Arm based SoC from Nvidia Nintendo could use in late 2024/early 2025.
 
I also suppose me and all the other suckers who bought a Switch OLED recently for TotK can feel a little less bad about it now.
I’m honestly tempted to get a ZOLED, and when the successor comes out, either trade it in or wait it out a bit.

Unless, software is next gen exclusive

Dread was announced and dated for October in June.
Even more credence for June Direct

Give a cautiously optimistic forecast for now to hold investors over before being able to officially announce their plans for the future.
This is one of my thoughts. Especially with how secretly Nintendo was prior to Switch unveil. They didn’t want the competition de steal their idea lol

When are the Q&A transcripts usually released?
I think someone said in two days. It needs to get translated and approved by management
 
Nintendo just have to announce it so I'll know If I'll get an ROG Ally and go all in on that for the next 5 years.

I'm getting one for third party support reasons. Frankly, Switch 2 is already outdated and underpowered when it does release as it cannot match even the ROG Ally which is coming soon. The ROG Ally based on the Z1 Extreme is already a Switch 2.75 (I will say 3 when it can go above 10TFLOPS, though come to think of it Switch 3 could also somehow fall behind that too, I hope not) when going full power, battery draining? Yes but if you want to push it you have the option to, furthermore I have the option for upscaling and resolution adjustments. VRR is a game changer on a handheld device, I use VRR frequently for PS5 and games that I hear complaints over frame rate or stutter issues just do not affect me, VRR on my TV is so good that I have always had smooth frames and no judder.

That to me is what I was waiting for, the Steam Deck didn't convince me yet as I was waiting for the inevitable successors that would take what they did and make it more convenient (running on Windows) and affordable (leaked prices are definitely in my ball-park compared to all the others on the market) and more powerful (definitely a tick from everything I have seen run on it so far.)

Nintendo will always be for my exclusives though I am sad by how behind they really are when it comes to tech. This should've been out sooner frankly, they have dragged this out far too long and I know every argument out there is it's Nintendo, they make ridiculous money and no competitor will come close to their market share. That isn't the point. To me the point is there are handhelds evolving in this space at a rate that I feel Nintendo isn't bothering to match and making case studies in how fast this space is developing, which to me makes my interest in Switch diminish as a result because it no longer is this mind-blowing piece of tech I once saw it as, it is now archaic and even the Switch 2 is becoming something I'm losing excitement over the more it drags out and will only pick up for exclusives rather than a main console I was once considering back when the handheld space felt more limited.

It is exciting what Nintendo can do with finally having PS4 Pro power as there are plenty of incredible games you can make with that kind of power and I'm keen to see what they do with it. But it is sad how unwilling Nintendo is it seems to keep up, I really do want them to try harder to and take notes but they never have and I don't think they ever will. Nintendo will always Nintendo.

I am excited by ROG Ally and will revert all my third party games to it when it releases because I am very impressed with it. By the time Switch 3 comes out given the advancements in the handheld PC space, I expect a device the equivalent of a Switch 6 will exist half way through 2's life cycle anyways. Switch did something amazing for the handheld side of the industry and drove a race that has been highly beneficial for us handheld gamers. I've never been more excited about the developments happening here.
 
Last edited:
If empty H2 doesn't mean a new console, maybe they'll want to wait until June before spilling the beans on new games. Maybe they want everyone's full attention on TotK.

Actually doesn't make sense either, but there has to be a reason.
That is what I have always believed.
Plus Covid has had a negative impact on the production of many titles, waiting until the last minute to know exactly which titles will be ready by the end of the year seems normal to me.
 
Switch already had weak hardware when it was released, unfortunately this is Nintendo's strategy, Nintendo doesn't launch new consoles because the old hardware is outdated, they launch when they believe they will make more money with a new platform than the old one.
It depends on how you look at hardware. From a mobile tech standpoint, the Switch was definitely not weak hardware at launch. We always like to forget that our perspective changed over the years. While 900p 30fps was fine for most people in 2017 even on a TV screen (because well always having at least 60fps or 4K were still very uncommon in console gaming and not everyone had a 4K TV), today the standards of many are much higher.

I don‘t think that the Switch struggles way more than at launch, expect for maybe most new third party titles or low investment ports. Though overall most ports are very decent and like 90% of first party games or notable indie games don‘t struggle on Switch (except that they are not always running at 1080p 60fps, but I don‘t call that struggle).
 
Last edited:
This might be coping, but the high forecast could be due to low expectations of new hardware sales because of a potential $400 price. Other than that, I'm still not convinced. You'll have to pry my 2023 dream off my cold dead hands.

In all seriousness, I understand the logic behind the high forecast and a 2024 release, but you can't have just predict something that high without a means to ensure it somewhat hits that goal, right? What other heavy hitter could Nintendo have that would guarantee 15 million units? Imho, Zelda and a bunch of DLC aren't gonna cut it in the long run and I can only see a 2D/3D Mario picking up the slack, especially riding off of the movie's hype.While I was half coping with my above statement, I think it could still be valid, especially if the hardware is short on stock. Nintendo does like to hold their cards close to their chest, shareholder be damned.
 
I'm getting one for third party support reasons. Frankly, Switch 2 is already outdated and underpowered when it does release as it cannot match even the ROG Ally which is coming soon. The ROG Ally based on the Z1 Extreme is already a Switch 2.75 (I will say 3 when it can go above 10TFLOPS, though come to think of it Switch 3 could also somehow fall behind that too, I hope not) when going full power, battery draining? Yes but if you want to push it you have the option to, furthermore I have the option for upscaling and resolution adjustments. VRR is a game changer on a handheld device, I use VRR frequently for PS5 and games that I hear complaints over frame rate or stutter issues just do not affect me, VRR on my TV is so good that I have always had smooth frames and no judder.

That to me is what I was waiting for, the Steam Deck didn't convince me yet as I was waiting for the inevitable successors that would take what they did and make it more convenient (running on Windows) and affordable (leaked prices are definitely in my ball-park compared to all the others on the market) and more powerful (definitely a tick from everything I have seen run on it so far.)

Nintendo will always be for my exclusives though I am sad by how behind they really are when it comes to tech. This should've been out sooner frankly, they have dragged this out far too long and I know every argument out there is it's Nintendo, they make ridiculous money and no competitor will come close to their market share. That isn't the point. To me the point is there are handhelds evolving in this space at a rate that I feel Nintendo isn't bothering to match and making case studies in how fast this space is developing, which to me makes my interest in Switch diminish as a result because it no longer is this mind-blowing piece of tech I once saw it as, it is now archaic and even the Switch 2 is becoming something I'm losing excitement over the more it drags out and will only pick up for exclusives rather than a main console I was once considering back when the handheld space felt more limited.

It is exciting what Nintendo can do with finally having PS4 Pro power as there are plenty of incredible games you can make with that kind of power and I'm keen to see what they do with it. But it is sad how unwilling Nintendo is it seems to keep up, I really do want them to try harder to and take notes but they never have and I don't think they ever will. Nintendo will always Nintendo.

I am excited by ROG Ally and will revert all my third party games to it when it releases because I am very impressed with it. By the time Switch 3 comes out given the advancements in the handheld PC space, I expect a device the equivalent of a Switch 6 will exist half way through 2's life cycle anyways. Switch did something amazing for the handheld side of the industry and drove a race that has been highly beneficial for us handheld gamers. I've never been more excited about the developments happening here.
Given the state of recent PC ports I'm not convinced you're going to see gaming performance that much better than optimized software running on Drake.
 
Switch already had weak hardware when it was released, unfortunately this is Nintendo's strategy, Nintendo doesn't launch new consoles because the old hardware is outdated, they launch when they believe they will make more money with a new platform than the old one.
Not really, you couldn't get much more out of a hybrid machine 7 years ago.
Now, that same now 7 year old tech compared to the newer fat consoles is really quite the gap.
 
“We want to continue selling this console for more than 5-6 years (the usual lifetime for a new game console),” - Tatsumi Kimishima, February 3rd 2018.

Didn't know that a new console coming out means that they're taking back any unsold unit of the old console to destroy them in a ritual fire for good fortune!

;D
 
Given the state of recent PC ports I'm not convinced you're going to see gaming performance that much better than optimized software running on Drake.
Yep, so glad I stopped PC gaming, all I read now is shitty port after shitty port.
Helps that I don't play handheld so the likes of Steamdeck hold no interest.
 
0
People who make the comparison for the Wiii and Switch i think are a little wrong

At the end of Wii era Nintendo basically push temselfs in to a wall with no way to succed with their too late HD console

The Switch instead is in the same position as the Gameboy, people love it, it lasted longer than anyone at Nintendo anticipated, and people are desparate for an equivalent to the Gameboy Advance

People hated the Wii in 2011 a the Wii brand was basically dead, the Switch brand is instead basically beloved by all
 
The (revised) 18M hardware forecast for the past year was met almost exactly. Next year's forecast is 15M.

The R&D forecast is an increase of 10 billion yen, which is the same increase it's had for a few years now, so no exciting conclusions to be drawn there.

The currently stated outlook for FY24 is, very unsurprisingly, just "we plan to convey the appeal of Nintendo Switch" and "TotK, Pikmin 4, and DLC for Pokémon SV will be released." Somehow, every quarter some people seem to be caught off guard by this, but Nintendo doesn't talk about things in financial materials that haven't already been announced. So you cannot read anything into these statements, or the Q&A answers once those become available, about Nintendo's unannounced plans or lack thereof.
I'm sorry to use your post like this for coping reassurance, but yeah. This is somewhat where I'm at, currently.
 
WOW at all the FUD here. Ye of little faith.

3 pages of jumping to conclusions and likely 3 more to follow. Guys, they never reveal their cards in these things. And all the analyst's takes are low IQ reactions to the meeting that was designed to reveal nothing.

"2023 is DEAAAAD!!!!" Chill bro. Chill.
 
“We want to continue selling this console for more than 5-6 years (the usual lifetime for a new game console),” - Tatsumi Kimishima, February 3rd 2018.
Guess Switch 3 will come out in 2031

People who make the comparison for the Wiii and Switch i think are a little wrong

At the end of Wii era Nintendo basically push temselfs in to a wall with no way to succed with their too late HD console

The Switch instead is in the same position as the Gameboy, people love it, it lasted longer than anyone at Nintendo anticipated, and people are desparate for an equivalent to the Gameboy Advance

People hated the Wii in 2011 a the Wii brand was basically dead, the Switch brand is instead basically beloved by all
It’s possible Nintendo still treats the Switch as a Third Pillar in terms of being a very independent business unit. We’re applying generational transition logic to a product that Nintendo perhaps perceive it can have its own, different type of transition.

You have been in a coma for 13 months WAKE UP

OPEN YOUR EYES
—————

By the way, I know this is veeery anecdotal, but I’ve been to two different retail stores and have seen several boxes of OG, OLED and Zelda OLED Switches. The console, seemingly, is losing its steam.
 
WOW at all the FUD here. Ye of little faith.

3 pages of jumping to conclusions and likely 3 more to follow. Guys, they never reveal their cards in these things. And all the analyst's takes are low IQ reactions to the meeting that was designed to reveal nothing.

"2023 is DEAAAAD!!!!" Chill bro. Chill.
You, I like you.
 
By the way, I know this is veeery anecdotal, but I’ve been to two different retail stores and have seen several boxes of OG, OLED and Zelda OLED Switches. The console, seemingly, is losing its steam.
I think its a combination of them losing steam + just making a shit ton. ZOLED was not limited edition. Simply just edition lol.
 
Given the state of recent PC ports I'm not convinced you're going to see gaming performance that much better than optimized software running on Drake.

To be fair, I don't PC Game like most do. I use it for legacy titles as my backlog is immense. If I can play third party titles better on another handheld system, I will do so versus on a home console as I personally find handheld far more convenient for me. By the time new ports are optimised and patched, I will get around to them.

I also have never been personally affected by issues other people state. I have played PC Ports that people have considered to be "unacceptable" and enjoyed them perfectly fine. A game is only unacceptable to me if it is at a frame rate that turns to slow motion. I do not care for bugs unless bugs cause frequent game crashes and erase saves. I simply do not have the cares in the world in my life for complaining about these things and really obsessing over them. If the game runs, the game runs. They will still play better than some of the utterly abysmal and compromised ports I have seen come to Switch aside from the miracle ports.

Optimisation isn't an issue for me for the most part. I care about convenience and power above all things.
 
I think Nintendo has enough incentive to carry on with no new hardware for at least another year:



If at least something is profitable, they’ll sqeeze it until they’re ready
 
WAKE ME UP
I CAN'T WAKE UP
SAVE MEEEE

Fun fact: Iirc, the original version of the song didn't feature that Dudebro shouting things, he was added (against the wishes of the band) when the producers wanted some male voice "power" so that they could use it for Ben Afflecks Daredevil movie soundtrack.
 
Fun fact: Iirc, the original version of the song didn't feature that Dudebro shouting things, he was added (against the wishes of the band) when the producers wanted some male voice "power" so that they could use it for Ben Afflecks Daredevil movie soundtrack.
a true cinematic masterpiece, indeed
 
Nintendo's next Switch will be outdated by the time it comes out (assuming it is Drake). Graphics and CPU tech that came out in 2020 releasing in late 2024 / early 2025. Nice job, Nintendo.

At this rate the Steam Deck 2 should be out before Nintendo's next system.
Before I start, I want to express that it's not my desire to have a go at you especially, however, I detest these kind of comments with a fierce passion. First of all, this narrative exists solely for Nintendo bash-and-trash purposes because every console, EVER, releases with "dated tech" due to the fact that consoles never eclipse PCs - I could have a semblance of respect for it if the energy was consistent, for example, XB1/PS4 releasing with poor CPUs was not reported on with the same fire. Or "60FPS" being nothing more than buzzword bollocks now - When Nintendo publications released with 60FPS more often than not on the Wii U, nobody showed the same interest, and we even had articles saying 30FPS was better because the PS4 would sacrifice it for perceived "visual spectacle". Hell, 30FPS was good enough for everybody until Switch versions of games adopted it a little bit more.

It's the correct call to be patient. More software will be announced soon enough. When IGN and other sites started this agenda with the current Switch, they couldn't point to another portable SoC from 2017 or earlier, let alone a sub-$300 portable system which could run the games the Switch has in its library better than it. Or Verge calling a 2017 system a 2022 "tech fail". It's BS, and everybody knows it. If anybody wants to say the successor will be outdated when it releases, they better be ready to throw their PS5s/XSs in the bin, too, because I guaran-damn-tee that people will be saying this while playing their 2020 systems (with tech from 201X in them and the same Dual Shock variant from 1997) in the same breath, still tethered to a wall because they can't play anywhere. Worst of all, the "dated" claim doesn't hold up, unless you're comparing to the PC space. It's an extremely nebulous statement by nature. Now, It's true that A710 and A715 have released since the A78 class. It's also true that X1, X2 and X3 ARM processors exist, BUT X1C is the only other one that has a C variant, and that's for desktops and always on-laptops. NONE of them have had substantial performance and efficiency gains to make them better-suited for the successor - So, this is an example of "newer" not necessarily meaning "better". BUT A78C is still a very impressive CPU, and the fact that the A78 class still appears in some form in (premium) mid-range phones today is a testament to that. A78C is gaming specific, and the single-cluster octa-core CPU will be better than today's flagship portables because the non-C version AND all of the subsequent CPUs have been used in multiple clusters with A55 or A510 cores. The GPU will be based on the Ampere series, with some Lovelace elements, and Ampere alone has a more modern feature set than both PS5/XS. Nvidia's RT is better than AMD's RT, AND it has a neural unit/DLSS - So, it has smarter engineering, and it has high disruption potential, in that it could put out end results similar to or even better than PS5/XS.

Finally, 15m in the 7th, SEVENTH year is mightily impressive. It means they're in healthy shape, and it means they will be able to enter transition with confidence. PS3 and X360 had 7 and 8-year cycles, while XB1/PS4 had 7 years. 2024 shouldn't be a surprise to anybody, and between the Booster Course Pass, Splatoon 3 post-release support, and recent Xenoblade Chronicles 3 DLC, they've literally tried to tell everybody... but Nintendo having a bit over 6 years is somehow problematic!? How wild. All of that BEFORE we mention the impact of a pandemic, which isn't over, by the way, on their development schedule. That can never be overstated. It isn't over, no matter how much some politicians want to assure us it is.
 
Last edited:
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
Last edited:


Back
Top Bottom