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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
- Start date
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
Next gen Nintendo hardware is about seeing first party games in next gen graphics, if I have to wait for the next Zelda in 2028-2029 to get Drake powered graphics for Zelda, then how is that not a hit on the overall hype of the system? I also just don't like when Nintendo coasts, that is how Wii U happens.
Kenka
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I am OK with 2024. By that time, Drake will be antiquitated but it is OK as long as it supports Lumen and Nanite at all output resolutions.Ok now I am getting bad vibes. It can still be baseless speculations, but at some point we are going to have to read the room, aren't we?
I am waiting till Feb 10th and then I am treating myself to an OLED
Also, wait for the Zelda OLED. It looks spectacular on the leaked pictures.
My main reason for wanting a new system is so the third party support keeps up. Hoping for more native ports rather than cloud (I would have been all over Kingdom Hearts had it been native)
Switch handheld suits my current lifestyle so the more big third party games it gets the better.
Switch handheld suits my current lifestyle so the more big third party games it gets the better.
robertman2
Chain Chomp
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First party games other than Zelda exist
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
Zelda can be my favorite though right? I can be a bit bummed if I don't get a next gen Zelda until the end of the decade. I love Nintendo games, but yeah Zelda is the reason I am a life long gamer.
Kazuyamishima
Moblin
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- He
Why does everyone keep saying next Zelda is 2028-2029? There have been much smaller development times for Zelda games like MM and wind waker
Instro
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Weird. Deepl skips over this line entirely when pasting the transcript, whereas Google translate picks it up. Yikes better hope they are wrong. Although this is likely a bad translation as well.
Cuz Zelda isn’t the only first party game, and ToTK on Drake still wouldn’t be a next gen Zelda. Even if Drake launches with ToTK you still won’t get Drake powered graphics for Zelda until whatever the next mainline entry is which is why I fail to see how it makes such a huge difference. Also Wii U had far more pressing issues than Nintendo coasting, it was a console that appealed to basically nobody with poor software support.
Drake launching in May, or Holidays, or Q1 2024 (tho I doubt it’ll be that late!) wont impact much in terms of success, certainly wouldn’t lead to a Wii-U level catastrophe unless Nintendo makes basically no games for it.
Tbf it’s probably because SS, BoTW, and ToTK all took around 5-6 years. 2028 tracks for the next mainline.
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At the risk of sounding like a broken record - literally none of their titles are in the same league. One could make an argument for 3D Mario, but the remainder of the selection doesn’t carry even half the ambition and scope of Breath of the Wild, and I assume the same will be true of future ‘Open-Air’ titles.
I’m kind of with @Z0m3le on this one. Maybe not to the degree of saying I won’t care about the hardware, but it’d put a big damper my excitement.
Development times aren’t getting any shorter, and the last three Zeldas have taken a very long time. It doesn’t seem sensible to expect them to taken 2-3 years if we want anything as ambitious as what we’re getting now.
YugamiSekai
T239 vs. Picross 4K
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Anywhere between 10AM and 4PM CST it seems.
Thanks!
Charamiwa
Bob-omb
I'm confused what difference it makes if Drake launches with Zelda in May or later in terms of "seeing a next gen Zelda game". It's still a game made for Switch, and even if the console releases later do we not expect a Drake patch? The results would be the same either way, we'd get an old gen game improved for the new console.
In my mind there are so many other exciting next gen opportunities for Drake. The next Mercury Steam Metroid game given how good Dread looked and run, Next Level's Luigi's Mansion, the next 3D Kirby bigger and better, or (if Bowser's Fury is any indication) the absolute visual banger that will be the next Mario game. Even 2D Zelda will be fascinating, given how Link's Awakening was pushing the original hardware. And can you imagine what kind of graphics Mario Kart 10 could have? Also, 60fps HD-2D games.
We're talking about the first major leap in visuals for Nintendo games since the Wii U, over ten years ago. It's going to be exciting, we will be feasting in 2024.
In my mind there are so many other exciting next gen opportunities for Drake. The next Mercury Steam Metroid game given how good Dread looked and run, Next Level's Luigi's Mansion, the next 3D Kirby bigger and better, or (if Bowser's Fury is any indication) the absolute visual banger that will be the next Mario game. Even 2D Zelda will be fascinating, given how Link's Awakening was pushing the original hardware. And can you imagine what kind of graphics Mario Kart 10 could have? Also, 60fps HD-2D games.
We're talking about the first major leap in visuals for Nintendo games since the Wii U, over ten years ago. It's going to be exciting, we will be feasting in 2024.
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The Nikkei article discussed above is an opinion piece belonging to the "ビッグBiz解剖" (Big Biz Anatomy) column. As you can see there, they published a two-part analysis of Nintendo, part 1 being its hardware business and part 2 software.
Looking through the part 1 article regarding hardware (thanks to @ReddDreadtheLead and @LiC), there are only two pieces of new info:
Looking through the part 1 article regarding hardware (thanks to @ReddDreadtheLead and @LiC), there are only two pieces of new info:
- Nintendo has started negotiating with suppliers regarding production lines of the next model.
- Unlike a news report, the burden of proof for an opinion piece is much lower. The writer mentioned no sources here; we don't know if they actually talked to some suppliers or received secondhand hearsay.
- Even if the info is solid, we don't know when the writer obtained that info—could be very recent, weeks ago, or further before.
- The factory uncle #1, if we believe them, repeated more than a few times that different factories may be on different production schedules. Therefore, if Nintendo indeed negotiated with some suppliers recently, it doesn't necessary signal that no production had begun across all suppliers.
- Judging from the orders placed with suppliers, the Switch shipments may reach 20MM in 2023, and "the industry" expects the successor to be released in H2 2024.
- Again, no source but a nebulous "the industry". What industry are they referencing—developers, suppliers, analysts, or something else?
- The writer also did not specify it being fiscal year or calendar. Due to the context I'd say calendar year. This brings me to the next point...
- "20MM"? Why would Nintendo forecast selling more units in CY23 than in CY22 if no new hardware?
- It seems that the "H2 2024" expectation is not based on any direct knowledge but the CY23 order volume. Not only is the number suspect, but the new model likely will share some components/parts with the current Switch; I don't think that one can confidently project the successor's release window this way.
Kazuyamishima
Moblin
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- He
Very good analysis this gave me more hope
"Fiscal year" was a mistranslation but "fiscal quarter". It wasn't a prediction or insider info, but a statement of fact that "no new model was announced in the past fiscal quarter." Unfortunately the bloggers/content creators flooded the internet with the misinterpretation; for their finely-honed SEO chops, the "fiscal year" reporting is all we can find today.Miss Nikkei always come with the tea. What they said about 2022 hardware:
If they say there are negotiations happening, it is happening. This is inline with the Famistu article.
Nikkei Report Says No New Nintendo Hardware Is Coming This Fiscal Year
"No" to the Switch Prowww.nintendolife.com
LinkURL
Bob-omb
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Mario Kart doesn't sell Hardware, it's Nintendo's best-selling franchise, but I don't know anyone who buys their consoles to play MK, it's usually a game that always comes together, an great addition, but not the main reason (which is usually Mario, Zelda, Pokémon or even Animal Crossing).
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
Most current gen games are still last gen PS4 crossgen games, that doesn't stop those titles from taking advantage of PS5's graphics, likewise a game getting a 4K patch and a game ported to a more powerful Switch in the leap of performance Drake offers over TX1 is VERY different... Ray Tracing, new Assets, different shaders, there is simply a big difference from a finished game getting a patch 12 months to 18 months after it's release, and a game launching alongside new hardware, especially when Nintendo has stated on many occasions that Zelda is a graphical showpiece game that is meant to push their hardware. (specifically thinking about Iwata's comments about Zelda's graphics)
manfromthedam
Semi Undercover Game Music Guy
IMO Mario hasn't been Nintendo's "prestige" series for a while - Zelda is. Looking at scope, development time and the fact that it's a proper Kyoto game (where much of EPD is situated) while Mario has a separate team in Tokyo, I don't think it's a stretch to say at all.
That being said, they can launch Switch 2 with anything they want - Nintendo is unpredictable like that. Zelda would make the most sense, and if they want to minimise the risk of this transition that's what I'd do, but Nintendo and patterns have an open relationship =P .
For me, if TotK comes out without Switch 2 I'll be fine (because I have the utmost faith in the Zelda team despite teasers up till now not particularly wowing me). However, it seems that Switch sales have peaked, and I hope for Nintendo's sake that they're on the ball this time. From that perspective 2023 makes a lot of sense, because 2024 onward sounds like releasing a successor when Switch has become stale (something that can happen quickly in the public's eye).
Stinky Horse
Bob-omb
That report was likely a finalized deal at that point, just a few months before production. There were other reports the year before about them investigating mini-LED.
But then the old report about them looking into using an IGZO screen with a hole in the middle didn't come out until the end of 2014, which was for a concept that might have been entirely scrapped by that point.
Gotdatmoneyy
Shriekbat
We'll have to see what the full year results come in at but a 20m fiscal year for the upcoming 12 months is plainly not happening so as far as I'm concerned that article is already operating from a false pretense. March 2024 is 7 years which is about what Sony and MS have operated at for the last 15 years so Nintendo operating on a more standardized gen makes sense.
I dont really get why they would for example design the chip and picks a fab like 8nm (if that is what it is) for something soooooo far out though so that's my only questioning about H2 2024. Seems like the process is too far along chip wise for somethung 2 years out.
I dont really get why they would for example design the chip and picks a fab like 8nm (if that is what it is) for something soooooo far out though so that's my only questioning about H2 2024. Seems like the process is too far along chip wise for somethung 2 years out.
Aether
Tingle
Yeah, im on the same boat. There are to many nintendo fans that are always happy with what they get as long as they get nintendo first party releases, but the overall public is not the same, otherwise the wiiu would have less of a failure, the wii wouldn't have fallen off a cliff and the 3DS would have sold better at the start. As it stands, the hardcore nintendo ip fans are a sizable chunk thats not to be ignored, but not enough to make a platform a success.
Yeah, usually when you use old chips (and by that time drakes architecture wont be new) you have the benefit of it being cheap, but if nvidia does not use it in other products that wont happen, so...full price for not up to date chips sounds less ideal. (not that it will ruin switch2s launch or sales, its just kinda dissapointing to think about lost pottential)
Yeah. that's what i feel many are ignoring, while third parties did not MAKE the switch (that still is the first party output), miracle ports and such did definitely help it being such a success. Ignoring their needs would just be the same error they made in the 90ties.
KH is a great example, i would have bought that Day 1.
Same for a friend of mine. As it is, we both dont have interest in cloud versions or unflexible to expensive (ps5s ar ecurrently 700€ if you get one here... and games new 80€...) stationary consoles.
...i honestly dont know it that would be possible with drake. that was just CGI (i assume what aonuma meant was less that its was gameplay, and more that it reflects real gameplay (horses, being huntd by guardians, jumping from the horse to shoot ancient arrows...).
...and those where 20 years ago when game dev times where shorter.
how realistic is it, that after the last 4-5 zelda games taking 4-6 years we get one in less then 4? and that in Higher fidelity?
Its not the only, but the one that (next to MP) has the best chances to be an obvious graphic showcase. With Smash and mario kart im not shure that it could even look thaaaat much better outside of higher resolution. Those games are coming to the limit of asset production.
Essentially: more detailed artstyle or bigger worlds are where nintendo games can win (and lighting). And many of their first party output is already Conformable in a place where the jump wont be thaaaat impressive.
Pokemon would also benefit. While SV where technical Desasters, the brute force of more compute power would have at least let them crank some aspects (have less pop in, more foliage, a stable framerate and resolution), making the games probably way better looking (and PLAYABLE, to many times i was really annoyed by the crap draw distance when searching for pokemon... and them only popping into existense 3 meters in front of me)
if they really planned them to be launched ad the same time and have a native drake version, well...sad to play the game first with the base switch. but if not, and its just a 4k patch, then it makes a big difference:
developing a game with a hardwar target in mind and just patching it for it makes a huge difference. Just look at many 2010 games running at higher and higher resolution on current game hardware, none of those really take the advanced architecture into account and use it to benefit the graphics.
I mean, it is possible to do it as a patch, but i feel like that would need a lot of reengineering, making it unrealistic. if there IS a ntive developed version, then there is a high chance that it was planned for a simultanious release and the hardware was pushed back.
i...really dont need more details in a 2D metroid to be honest. Dread was fine as is. smoother? higher framerate? (120... =O) that would be a think where i would be all over it.
Lugis mansion could benefit from ray tracing, but the lighting and animation is already so great even on switch, that im not sure if it would ake that much of a jump. And Kirby... make it 6fps and higher resolution i really dont feel like Bigger would benefit it.
LA is another example where im like: would it benefit that moch? It clearly had a problem with the bandwidth where the framerate dropped, but except the resolution and framerate, the artstyle was already on point, it only struggled for me in moments with slightly primitive looking assets, and there i feel like the production / cost for improving them does not stand for improvements.
All that so say: i feel like many of nintendos first party games would mainly benefit in the resolution/framerate department, which is why i really really hope that it supports 90/120 fps instead of increasing the production value and production cost while looking almost identical for most people.
My biggest comparison is probably KH:
no, it is not on the render quality as the pixar movies, but it was already so close, for most people the difference was negligent. (talking about the cutscenes on base ps4, there is a clear difference between those and the gameplay)
I agree with your thoughts about the groups, but I don't think it's entirely relevant to the successor's timeline.
Whatever Nintendo's plans are, they started at least 4-5 years ago, before the pandemic. That's how long they need for such a hardware and plan games development in accordance. The plans may have shifted a little in the last few years, but I don't think there's a lot of wiggle room.
If they delay the hardware, they'd have to renegociate all their contracts, with suppliers and manufacturers, possibly paying fines. maybe even loosing their slots at foundries. They'd have to put software on hold or reshuffle launch titles. Publishing partners (I'm sure there are a few) would be very annoyed.
Also, the SoC could be impressive if it's out when it is meant to, maybe not so much a couple of years later. There are new increasingly compelling PC handhelds and gaming phones coming out every year.
Whatever their timeline is, I'm pretty sure it's set in stone by now and not really dependent current sales data.
Mekanos
おっす！
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I'm far from a tech expert so I won't pretend otherwise, but if the Switch revision was indeed cancelled because of a chip shortage, maybe they want to launch later in 2024 when they think they'll have more ready? Nintendo has been operating in strange ways ever since COVID.
This article seems mostly speculative though so it's hard to gleam much from it. Late 2023/early 2024 seems like a "safe" bet, but no way to know for sure.
FrakEarth
Cappy
If it's 2024, I hope they've got a stacked 2023 outside of Zelda and Baiten Kaitos or whatever - because third parties aren't going to be releasing their best efforts from here on in, if Nintendo want to carry this system on their own for another year or more - of course they can, but if they do a bad job of it - they could very well hurt the next console.
AxkilAvenger
Like Like
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If Nintendo doesn’t release a new console this year, they’ll be fine guys lol.
Link_enfant
Fashion Dreamer
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I have a feeling that TOTK has been developed with something special for the Switch 2 in mind. Whether it's two games in production at once or an upgrade with an expansion (possibly even online) coming to the Switch 2.
It will be more than a mere graphics upres remaster and provide strong incentive to upgrade.
It will be more than a mere graphics upres remaster and provide strong incentive to upgrade.
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Cheppito
Cappy
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Dual screen to see the sky and lands of Hyrule easily <3
stodesign12
Bob-omb
I hope that not releasing a new console until 2024 or 2025 means Switch Lite gets cool special editions like New 2DS XL had.
A Plague Tale: Requiem looks WORSE with Ray Tracing, comparison screenshots
Asobo has just released a new update for A Plague Tale: Requiem that adds support for Ray Tracing. However, the game looks worse with them.
www.dsogaming.com
Just thought this was funny and might be a thing in the near future. Where people are so used to over-exaggerated errors they can't notice when things do look accurate. In the case of A Plague Tale, the style veers towards an accurate lighting model, so RTAO is doing work here
Shiba
Bob-omb
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I just hope they don’t plan on releasing anything ambitious after Totk until the next console is out.
KCannon
Tektite
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The problem with wanting sources is that NDAs tend to prevent specific ones from being named, and sometimes they prefer going anonymous.
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It's nice to be asleep during the doom phase and wake up during the clarification phase.
LinkURL
Bob-omb
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MS will never drop the Series S over Lazy Dev's cry on Twitter, it would be an unprecedented shot in the foot and a slap in the face to consumers. And even if it did, it would be idiotic don't launching your game in the Series S when it's the biggest part of the XBox on the market, in fact most Steam users don't have GPUs superior to his.
Raccoon
Fox Brigade
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yeah, they won't stop until everyone has upgraded
zelda oled might be huge, that's a big set of potentially lapsed switch fans who wouldn't have upgraded before
a 2D mario oled for holiday 2023 would probably be pretty successful too
I think at this point nintendo's strategy will be to get another switch purchase out of as many owners as they can while hand-me-downs create a few late-gen new owners
InfinityWarrior88
Cappy
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Why are we treating an opinion piece with some questionable analysis as a report?
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Based on the Nikkei opinion piece with extremely questionable logic about them expecting 20M console sales in 2023?
They can't get me, a V1 Switch for super-easy CFW will always feel superior than anything that isn't Drake.
gotta keep this thread alive right?
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Oh, i assume this thread will be active enough once Nate drops his podcast today.
No that is not a hint or anything, i do not no about the podcasts content or anything.
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Make sure Tommy is ready
Future Boy Nemo
Daydream Believer
What I keep coming back to is, why use Ampere in a product that's not releasing until 24H2 at the earliest? That's late enough that an Ada-based SoC would be expected.
If that case really is 'Nintendo cancelled product A with Drake and Product B with Drake is coming out in twenty-plus months', well, that would explain it, but it would kind of suck.
If that case really is 'Nintendo cancelled product A with Drake and Product B with Drake is coming out in twenty-plus months', well, that would explain it, but it would kind of suck.
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