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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Raccoon said:
I'm honestly more interested in what happened than what will happen now so the podcast will be a must-listen for me
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Yeah same here. I'm more interested in this whole saga as an interesting peek behind the curtain than I am about figuring out exactly what is gonna happen and when.

That's the same reason I'm in love with all the techy-talk that goes on here about the SoC, too.
 
D36 said:
I think you're underestimating the Switch's potential staying power this, especially considering the attach rate. In the event that the next system does release next year, as long as Nintendo releases games, they'll still sell well with the Switch's current install base. I don't think timing is as big of an issue as people in this thread were making it out to be a week ago.
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I really hope you are right. As i said, i still love playing on my Switch and want Nintendo to stay at the top, the're making awesome games.
 
Instro said:
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And Nintendo can differentiate by having unique software (they do) and being the only hybrid product on the market. Bring on Switch 2 already

“Negotiations with suppliers about production systems have begun” doesn’t sound “4 months away” soon, but what do I know. Somebody tell me
 
ITSMILNER said:
Would this back up the Uncles comments that have been coming in? If production has already begun.
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We haven't found/read the article yet, so this is interpreting it through a translation, but "negotiations with suppliers" sounds more like securing contracts for the materials or components needed for production, rather than mass production itself.
 
Without seeing the article it's hard to say how accurate Gibbo is being, but I'd take Nikkei commenting on production at all as a positive sign.
 
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Nate talking about Nintendo hardware tomorrow is giving me Big May Energy. I'm feeling pretty confident that the Switch's successor is going to release then.
 
LiC said:
We haven't found/read the article yet, so this is interpreting it through a translation, but "negotiations with suppliers" sounds more like securing contracts for the materials or components needed for production, rather than mass production itself.
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I’m guessing if they are securing them that would also mean they would need to wait for an allotted time in the factories to actually start production? So if they are busy pushing out other products it might be a little while until Nintendo can get a slot to start production of their product?
 
Here's the article (via Redd).

https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUF115M50R10C23A1000000/

Hidden content is only available for registered users. Sharing it outside of Famiboards is subject to moderation.

Unfortunately, it's what I pretty much suspected it was: not a news report, but a general fluff piece about Switch sales, Nintendo's current situation, and their history with hardware transitions, with just one line thrown in that would purport to be interesting behind-the-scenes info. It's very similar to that other financial outlook article from last year in that regard.

Here's a machine translation of the relevant paragraph:

ただ、スイッチの寿命はいずれ尽きる。古川俊太郎社長は会見などで次世代機戦略について尋ねられると「他とは違う娯楽を提供していきたい」と答えるだけだが、水面下ではサプライヤーとの生産体制の折衝も始まりつつあるようだ。

However, the Switch will eventually reach the end of its lifespan. When President Shuntaro Furukawa is asked about the strategy for next-generation consoles at press conferences and other events, he simply responds, "We want to provide entertainment that is different from others," but behind the scenes, it appears that negotiations with suppliers are beginning to take place regarding production systems.
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The old Furukawa quote is indeed totally irrelevant, juxtaposed where it doesn't belong, since it neither supports nor contradicts the claim about production.

As for the production comment itself, we can't really glean anything more from this than what the tweet already said. I want to believe Nikkei has real info and that this is a reinforcement of an upcoming production timeline. But it's so hard to swallow when it's just thrown in an article like this.
 
LiC said:
Here's the article (via Redd).

https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUF115M50R10C23A1000000/

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

Unfortunately, it's what I pretty much suspected it was: not a news report, but a general fluff piece about Switch sales, Nintendo's current situation, and their history with hardware transitions, with just one line thrown in that would purport to be interesting behind-the-scenes info. It's very similar to that other financial outlook article from last year in that regard.

Here's a machine translation of the relevant paragraph:



The old Furukawa quote is indeed totally irrelevant, juxtaposed where it doesn't belong, since it neither supports nor contradicts the claim about production.

As for the production comment itself, we can't really glean anything more from this than what the tweet already said. I want to believe Nikkei has real info and that this is a reinforcement of an upcoming production timeline. But it's so hard to swallow when it's just thrown in an article like this.
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Sounds like even the Japanese audience is getting tired of waiting for Nintendo to do something new. Damn I wish we had some new actual information. Thanks for the link.
 
Watch the January direct be the hardware reveal. The collapse.
430086543_WAP-Copy.gif


Miss Nikkei always come with the tea. What they said about 2022 hardware:
www.nintendolife.com

Nikkei Report Says No New Nintendo Hardware Is Coming This Fiscal Year

"No" to the Switch Pro
www.nintendolife.com www.nintendolife.com
If they say there are negotiations happening, it is happening. This is inline with the Famistu article.
 
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D36 said:
What in the flying FUCK is that gif?????
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I think that's an enemy from Mother 3 as drawn by a particularly imaginative artist. Also, I'm still on board for May potentially the release date for the successor. I'm not expecting a revision at this point. I stand by my earlier theory that, if the successor releases in May, it'll be announced sometime between the 30th of January and the 10th of February.
 
To me, all this sounds like 2024 at the earliest.

There are various schools of thought as to whether 2024 (or later) is potentially a mistake or not, and I think the division is mainly between those that believe Switch is a Nintendo games console while 3rd party games are just icing on the cake at best, and those that believe 3rd party offerings had a significant part in how successful Switch was. (And of course there are people in between, there are not just two groups).

If you belong to the former group, Switch 2 might as well come out in 2025 and will still be as successful as it could be as long as there are Nintendo games to back it up. All Nintendo needs to do is come out with an exclusive Mario Kart 9, and Switch 2 will sell like hotcakes. It doesn't really matter that they had the opportunity to strike the iron while hot while PS5 was still not so strongly entrenched and cross-generation games were still a thing, it doesn't matter which 3rd party games they will lose out on (that they could have had) because they are already deep in development and platforms have been finalized, it doesn't matter if someone figures out how to make a better Switch (e.g. a new much improved Steamdeck) as long as it does not have Nintendo games on it, etc etc

If you belong to the latter group (full disclosure - I do), all the above that relates to 3rd parties does matter and there is a good chance it will affect Switch 2 success significantly. Is it all doom and gloom? Not necessarily, there are a lot of factors at play, but I guess we'll see.
 
Corim said:
I think that's an enemy from Mother 3 as drawn by a particularly imaginative artist. Also, I'm still on board for May potentially the release date for the successor. I'm not expecting a revision at this point. I stand by my earlier theory that, if the successor releases in May, it'll be announced sometime between the 30th of January and the 10th of February.
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I agree. Also, I know it's from Mother 3, but why he gotta be throwin it back like it's Mardi Gras?
 
ITSMILNER said:
I’m guessing if they are securing them that would also mean they would need to wait for an allotted time in the factories to actually start production? So if they are busy pushing out other products it might be a little while until Nintendo can get a slot to start production of their product?
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It's hard to speculate with so little context to what the Nikkei quote even means. But just speaking about supplier contracts generally, and bearing in mind I have absolutely no idea what I'm talking about when it comes to manufacturing: I imagine they would be done rather close to when you intended to start production, since you need to know what your final plans are and be willing to commit to large volumes over multiple years. If contracts aren't secured yet, then you can't start manufacturing next week, but I don't think it would necessarily be a long time either.

We got a report on Nintendo contracting Samsung to make the OLED screens in March 2021, which were said to begin manufacturing in June and shipping to assemblers in July, for a system that was ultimately revealed in July and released in October. That's basically 3+1+3 months. So if we believe that supplier contracts are being discussed right now (which is questionable given the context of the Nikkei article!), to me that would strongly indicate something planned for release this year.
 
Remember the week our dreams went to shit, Nate made some comment about having seen or heard of “early plans” or some such for Nintendo’s next console? It was something implying early days/planning for what’s next. It was a confusing remark that we haven’t discussed much since.

Well, going into tomorrow morning, I’ve remembered it, and I’m going to hold on to it to set my expectations as low as possible. Just in case we get any sad curveballs tomorrow…maybe I can buffer myself
 
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LiC said:
It's hard to speculate with so little context to what the Nikkei quote even means. But just speaking about supplier contracts generally, and bearing in mind I have absolutely no idea what I'm talking about when it comes to manufacturing: I imagine they would be done rather close to when you intended to start production, since you need to know what your final plans are and be willing to commit to large volumes over multiple years. If contracts aren't secured yet, then you can't start manufacturing next week, but I don't think it would necessarily be a long time either.

We got a report on Nintendo contracting Samsung to make the OLED screens in March 2021, which were said to begin manufacturing in June and shipping to assemblers in July, for a system that was ultimately revealed in July and released in October. That's basically 3+1+3 months. So if we believe that supplier contracts are being discussed right now (which is questionable given the context of the Nikkei article!), to me that would strongly indicate something planned for release this year.
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While I still think the best time to release Switch's successor is alongside Zelda in 4 months, I do think your read is spot on, we don't know how much info if any is in this article, and it is suggesting a product that would release this year... If the info is real, we still don't have a real timeframe as it's too vague, are deals just now starting or are they closing and components will be shipped for production next month?

I tend to line up multiple separate sources when available, and that would suggest that this information is older, if there is any here to begin with... but I'm also bias towards a launch in May with Zelda because that was the original plan I heard years ago, that the game and system were tied together, but the pandemic and Zelda's delay have put the relationship of these two products into question, there is always the option of releasing the hardware at the end of 2023 with Zelda DLC that also adds RTX features to the game.

I'm firmly waiting until Feb 10th has passed before I move on from a Zelda launch, but yes this article if it has real info, suggests a 2023 launch, that isn't what is being discussed privately, and projected publically, but from the info I've been able to gather, the source for a no 2023 hardware launch is not reliable, from what I have heard, people who know the source of the info is dismissing it, and people who are hearing it second hand are more inclined to believe it... I think with what we know about where the hardware and development software was at last year, we should be looking at a release sometime in 2023, so it comes down to some other reason for a 2024 launch if it is the case, because the hardware and software for the device should be ready for retail sometime this year.
 
Ok, late 2023 isn’t a bad speculation.

Nintendo has already released a console without Zelda (OLED), so the “Nintendo has to launch the console with Totk” is based ”just“ on the launch of Switch and Switch Lite, but they potentially could really have a new Mario game for the holiday that we still don’t know.

Let’s see Nate’s video, I’m excited.
 
robertman2 said:
I'm thinking late 2023 tbh
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Honestly if it misses Zelda, I kind of don't care about next gen hardware. Like the point is to see these 1st party games with next generation graphics and performance, but if Nintendo can't be bothered to make it happen, then I can't be bothered to worry about it, also riding Switch momentum out before launching a successor is what they did with both Wii and DS, it didn't work either time, and I'm not sure it's going to work here, with Nintendo's focus shifting away from gaming and into growing their IPs outside of the medium, I'm not sure I'll really care about the hardware until after its revealed if they are going to make us wait all damn year again.
 
Z0m3le said:
While I still think the best time to release Switch's successor is alongside Zelda in 4 months, I do think your read is spot on, we don't know how much info if any is in this article, and it is suggesting a product that would release this year... If the info is real, we still don't have a real timeframe as it's too vague, are deals just now starting or are they closing and components will be shipped for production next month?

I tend to line up multiple separate sources when available, and that would suggest that this information is older, if there is any here to begin with... but I'm also bias towards a launch in May with Zelda because that was the original plan I heard years ago, that the game and system were tied together, but the pandemic and Zelda's delay have put the relationship of these two products into question, there is always the option of releasing the hardware at the end of 2023 with Zelda DLC that also adds RTX features to the game.

I'm firmly waiting until Feb 10th has passed before I move on from a Zelda launch, but yes this article if it has real info, suggests a 2023 launch, that isn't what is being discussed privately, and projected publically, but from the info I've been able to gather, the source for a no 2023 hardware launch is not reliable, from what I have heard, people who know the source of the info is dismissing it, and people who are hearing it second hand are more inclined to believe it... I think with what we know about where the hardware and development software was at last year, we should be looking at a release sometime in 2023, so it comes down to some other reason for a 2024 launch if it is the case, because the hardware and software for the device should be ready for retail sometime this year.
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Is RTX even feasible on a Drake switch? My 3050 can't run any game with RTX on
 
Z0m3le said:
Honestly if it misses Zelda, I kind of don't care about next gen hardware. Like the point is to see these 1st party games with next generation graphics and performance, but if Nintendo can't be bothered to make it happen, then I can't be bothered to worry about it, also riding Switch momentum out before launching a successor is what they did with both Wii and DS, it didn't work either time, and I'm not sure it's going to work here, with Nintendo's focus shifting away from gaming and into growing their IPs outside of the medium, I'm not sure I'll really care about the hardware until after its revealed if they are going to make us wait all damn year again.
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If it launches late 2023 and misses Zelda by a few months I don’t really see how that makes much of a difference. Drake’s overall lineup will be pretty much the same if it launches in May or in the holidays bar Zelda and maybe a couple crossgen titles that would launch between May and Q3. If anything a holiday launch increases the probability of diving straight into exclusive next-gen 1st party games as opposed to a soft transition of cross gen titles.
 
Raccoon said:
...you know he just said three weeks ago that it's cancelled, right?
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He sure claimed something was cancelled, but the description of what was cancelled and the purported timeline raise some serious red flags that there might be, at minimum, some serious conflation going on.
 
They’ll need to launch this with a big new game if it’s a successor console. Unless Zelda gets pushed back the only other game I could see is Mario? One should be due so it’s possible, I think I am now on the 2024 train though. Get Zelda out, end the year with Pikmin and a few HD remasters/remakes with one or two smaller, new games then hit 2024 hard with a new system.
 
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