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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

just think, by late 2024 the cross-gen period will be thoroughly over, and xbox might have even dropped the series s

we'll be back to hoping for miracle ports
they wont dropp series S. what maybe will happen is that they have to scale down resolution even more.
but the other point...yeah. If it would have released 2022, then it could have gotten current gen games around the same time they release.
with 2024 we will get late ports (like 2-4 years...) where the publishers will be disappointing by the low sales (...) and maybe some miracle ports.

Edit: uh, were on page 777.... thats 111 more then 666....
Switch 2 releases on 01.11.23!
 
Honestly, I would rather Nintendo shadowdrop Drake right after I finally pull the trigger on the TOTK oled than announce a date before. I've been sitting here with my broken launch switch and backlog waiting so damn long for this game and that special edition console. Waiting even longer when people are already playing it because of a confirmed Drake release would kill me.

But luckily Drake is definitely coming May 12th.
 

Just thought this was funny and might be a thing in the near future. Where people are so used to over-exaggerated errors they can't notice when things do look accurate. In the case of A Plague Tale, the style veers towards an accurate lighting model, so RTAO is doing work here
... honestly, some look better with RT , others without. RT has less contrast, thats probably more acurate looking at some overdone shadows.
In my book its another sign that fake lighting has come so far, that RT is not worth the hit in performance in most cases (exceptions exist, and when it looks good it looks great).

But... i actually like the look of the game. Maybe i should look into it (and hope for a native switch 2 port)
 
Make sure Tommy is ready

tumblr_po5lgf44lG1y4rf59o4_r1_500.gif
 
... honestly, some look better with RT , others without. RT has less contrast, thats probably more acurate looking at some overdone shadows.
In my book its another sign that fake lighting has come so far, that RT is not worth the hit in performance in most cases (exceptions exist, and when it looks good it looks great).

But... i actually like the look of the game. Maybe i should look into it (and hope for a native switch 2 port)
fake lighting will still be around, especially with games that don't have a lot of dynamic lighting. that describes A Plague Tale, so there's a limit to how much RT can do. the main benefit in the future is not wasting time baking stuff and the accompanying memory usage from texture maps. from my own experience, not having to make separate uvs for shadow maps and light baking is a godsend.

as for the screens, I'd have to say anything without annoying haloing is immediately better. I just wish Asobo didn't go the on/off toggle route
 
NateDrake comes in here to post his new podcast link we've all been waiting for and says nothing to prepare us about what bomb info he's about to drop.

Except "I'm sorry, everyone. 2026 will be nice though"
 
If we're taking the good with the bad on the Famitsu rumor report and H2 2024 is now a likely target window then it does mesh in with whatever bad news Nate may have to say. Any delay likely won't result in anything coming out this year.

It's a bummer.
 
Quoted by: LiC
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It's gonna be a shame if Nintendo waits until H2 2024 to release Switch 2. It was a chance for Nintendo to catch some of those cross gen games from PS5. Those will still likely come but they will be late ports and the new appeal will be gone. In my opinion the new appeal last at the least 6 months after PS5 version. If they managed to get Diablo 4, Street Fighter 6, Harry Potter and etc all on Switch 2 within 6 months of PS5 version those games would feel fresh and more exciting. Once PS5 games transition to next gen only then it seems we will just get late ports of PS4 games and those rare impossible ports that get compared to way better looking versions on PS5.
 
fake lighting will still be around, especially with games that don't have a lot of dynamic lighting. that describes A Plague Tale, so there's a limit to how much RT can do. the main benefit in the future is not wasting time baking stuff and the accompanying memory usage from texture maps. from my own experience, not having to make separate uvs for shadow maps and light baking is a godsend.

as for the screens, I'd have to say anything without annoying haloing is immediately better. I just wish Asobo didn't go the on/off toggle route
oh, i fully belive you that not having to do it is a godsend.
the memory usage is traded for processing, so depending on the game i absolutely can se benefits. I just dont see it as a "it is next gen", but as a valuable tool for developers to use when it makes sense, and not plaster it all over everything.
Why are you against the on/off toggle? cause the gamer that's not used to it will compare and be unsatisfied?
(Im all in for artistic intent on an initial release, im kinda iffy if later updates change stuff but dont give you the option to keep it the old way, not jsut with graphics but also with gameplay)
 
If we're taking the good with the bad on the Famitsu rumor report and H2 2024 is now a likely target window then it does mesh in with whatever bad news Nate may have to say. Any delay likely won't result in anything coming out this year.

It's a bummer.
"Rumor report?" Didn't I and fwd-bwd break it down in enough detail, to make it clear that the only potential rumor in there is the one line which says Nintendo is negotiating with suppliers? The other part says "THE INDUSTRY" expects a H2 2024 target. They don't even cite anyone to back that up, but we already know that various "industry" opinions range from 2023 to 2024. Someone has posted a tweet from an analyst saying 2024 every couple of months for the past year now.

How you can just turn that into "Famitsu says H2 2024 is now a likely target window" is beyond me. They are literally just restating (an extreme version of) what (some) industry people -- without any inside info -- have predicted.
 
"Rumor report?" Didn't I and fwd-bwd break it down in enough detail, to make it clear that the only potential rumor in there is the one line which says Nintendo is negotiating with suppliers? The other part says "THE INDUSTRY" expects a H2 2024 target. They don't even cite anyone to back that up, but we already know that various "industry" opinions range from 2023 to 2024. Someone has posted a tweet from an analyst saying 2024 every couple of months for the past year now.

How you can just turn that into "Famitsu says H2 2024 is now a likely target window" is beyond me. They are literally just restating (an extreme version of) what (some) industry people -- without any inside info -- have predicted.
Not to mention that same report expects -based on component deals mind you- more switches sold in 2023 than in 2022.
 
"Rumor report?" Didn't I and fwd-bwd break it down in enough detail, to make it clear that the only potential rumor in there is the one line which says Nintendo is negotiating with suppliers? The other part says "THE INDUSTRY" expects a H2 2024 target. They don't even cite anyone to back that up, but we already know that various "industry" opinions range from 2023 to 2024. Someone has posted a tweet from an analyst saying 2024 every couple of months for the past year now.

How you can just turn that into "Famitsu says H2 2024 is now a likely target window" is beyond me. They are literally just restating (an extreme version of) what (some) industry people -- without any inside info -- have predicted.
yeah, sometimes it feels like every info that comes from outside the forum and is not twitter or 4chan is treated as insider information, even if it is just speculation or expectations.
 
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By all due respect for Zelda, and i have a lot for it, they'd need more than just that game to achieve this, and/or a price cut.
The funny thing is this report specifically cites production plans as a reason to expect 20M units sold but they don't seem to entertain the possibility that some of those units could in fact be a new console. That would explain higher production vs last year much better.
 
Nintendo will shock us all by releasing a game in the 2H of 2023...maybe even multiple games.

Maybe i should've made my post more clear, but i was of course talking about games on the level of Zelda or a mainline Pokemon. ;D
 
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"Rumor report?" Didn't I and fwd-bwd break it down in enough detail, to make it clear that the only potential rumor in there is the one line which says Nintendo is negotiating with suppliers? The other part says "THE INDUSTRY" expects a H2 2024 target. They don't even cite anyone to back that up, but we already know that various "industry" opinions range from 2023 to 2024. Someone has posted a tweet from an analyst saying 2024 every couple of months for the past year now.

How you can just turn that into "Famitsu says H2 2024 is now a likely target window" is beyond me. They are literally just restating (an extreme version of) what (some) industry people -- without any inside info -- have predicted.
I think fwd said it was an opinion piece but I just referenced it as a rumor report as it relies on unsourced comments.

The rest of my post is just me coming to terms with the fact that I need to consider 2024 H2. I've only considered up to H1 2024
 
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The funny thing is this report specifically cites production plans as a reason to expect 20M units sold but they don't seem to entertain the possibility that some of those units could in fact be a new console. That would explain higher production vs last year much better.
That did pop out. Assuming another 20% drop this coming FY Switch sales would be closer to 15 million
 
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Rough summary of the 19 January 2023 episode of Nate the Hate

  • In 2021, Nate the Hate reported there were rumblings within the development history of Nintendo distributing devkits for new hardware with 4K support achieved with DLSS
  • Bloomberg later reported hearing the same, with some of Bloomberg's reports being corroborated by Nikkei
  • In mid 2021, Bloomberg reported the release of new hardware was imminent, which turned out to be a false trail, with the OLED model being released
  • But in autumn 2021, Bloomberg doubled on reports on there exists devkits for new hardware with 4K support, citing 12 developer contacts having access to it, with a release timeline of late 2022
  • A month later, NateDrake independently corroborated Bloomberg's report in autumn 2021, but with a slightly different release time of late 2022 - early 2023
  • In 2022, there's an illegal leak of Nvidia files, which has mentioned NVN2, the successor to NVN
  • MVG has heard some developers at GDC 2022 mention working with updated Nintendo Switch devkits, which MVG kind of assumed to be devkits for a next-gen Nintendo Switch (MVG mentioned developers never mentioned "Nintendo Switch Pro")
  • NateDrake has heard his developer contacts mention having new devkits for a new Nintendo Switch, which is more powerful and has more features, and mentioned the new hardware seems more like a revision than a successor, but that depends on how Nintendo wants to brand it
  • John Linneman thinks everyone used the "Nintendo Switch Pro" moniker too liberally since "Nintendo Switch Pro" was easy to say, although whether the new hardware was positioned as a mid-gen refresh or a successor was unknown
  • NateDrake thinks Sony and Microsoft could have marketed the PlayStation 4 Pro and the Xbox One X as a successor if Sony and Microsoft wanted to since there were enough meaningful upgrades in terms of performance uplifts and features (e.g. 4K support)
  • John Linneman mentioned the PlayStation 4 Pro and the Xbox One X released 3 years after the PlayStation 4 and the Xbox One
  • MVG always felt the "Nintendo Switch Pro" is a mid-gen refresh still using the Tegra X1, but with increases in the memory bandwidth, memory size, and the CPU and GPU frequencies (basically the same hardware with more oomph), and is still binary compatible with the entire Nintendo Switch library without needing patches (MVG said this is his interpretation)
  • When inquiring his developer contactors on summer 2022 about whether the new hardware is still on track to release on late 2022 - early 2023, NateDrake heard more rumblings the new hardware is no longer scheduled to be released in late 2022 or early 2023
  • That surprised NateDrake, given what MVG has heard at GDC 2022
  • NateDrake mentioned all prior reporting was correct for its time, but plans have changed
  • John Linneman believes the new hardware described by Bloomberg no longer exists and that nobody should expect new hardware to be released in 2023 based on the timelines lining up, although he admits nobody's 100% certain
  • John Linneman thinks Nintendo could announce new hardware in autumn 2023, with a demo event in early 2024, and with new hardware released in spring 2024, based on what Nintendo did with the Nintendo Switch prior to release
  • John Linneman wonders of Metroid Prime 4 could be a launch title for the new hardware, with Tears of the Kingdom being too late, although Nintendo could release a Tears of the Kingdom port for the new hardware
  • John Linneman and MVG believe the reason ADEV (the OLED model's devkit) exists is to allow developers to see the game on the OLED display whilst developing the game
  • NateDrake mentioned ADEV is not conflated with the new devkits with 4K support since the OLED model was always meant to be its own separate thing
  • NateDrake mentioned the illegal Nvidia leaks mentioned a SoC codenamed Drake that supported features, such as ray tracing and DLSS
  • NateDrake and MVG mentioned having no first-hand confirmation on which SoC was used for the devkits with 4K support (MVG mentioned he kind of assumed the Tegra X1 was still being used)
  • NateDrake wonders if because the SoC evolved and became more efficient over time, Nintendo issued a recall for the devkits Nintendo has been working on and has distributed, and distributed better devkits
  • NateDrake also wonders if Nintendo pivoted on a certain element (not a concept) of the hardware itself, causing the new hardware to be better, therefore the new hardware is no longer planned to be released in 2023 (perhaps early - late 2024 hypothetically?)
  • MVG thinks it's possible to assume Nintendo did initially send out devkits to third party studios, so the third party studios could become familiarised with the new hardware, whilst Nintendo figures out what kind of battery life should the new hardware have; once Nintendo got metric from third party studios on the average battery life, Nintendo asked third party studios to send back the devkits to initiate phase 2
  • John Linneman mentions this is what other manufacturers (e.g. Microsoft, Sony) do as well
  • NateDrake reiterated the previously reported information was true for its time, but was ultimately incorrect due to being reported on too early
  • NateDrake thinks Drake, which was mentioned in the NVN2 files, could still be developed by Nvidia, still be tested, and be repurposed for what Nintendo planned for what's coming next
  • MVG mentions that NVN can run on a multitude of Nvidia GPUs despite being geared for the Nintendo Switch, and has libraries that can be compiled on different OSes (e.g. Microsoft Windows, etc.) depending on which Nvidia GPU was used; and MVG expects no different for NVN2
  • John Linneman thinks Nintendo will be fine without releasing new hardware into 2024 since the Nintendo Switch is the best selling console of all time, and there's a huge audience base that still wants to buy games for the Nintendo Switch, with the only problem he foresees is third party Nintendo Switch ports
  • John Linneman believes the strength of Nintendo's first party games, as well as indie games, could still make the Nintendo Switch an appealing product into 2024
  • MVG plays a little bit of a devil's advocate by mentioning there are first party (e.g. Age of Calamity, Pokémon, etc.) and third party games that have performance issues on the Nintendo Switch
  • MVG expects Tears of the Kingdom to be a generational leaps in terms of visual fidelity, compared to Breath of the Wild
  • NateDrake mentioned that in an episode of Nate the Hate on September 2022 that John Linneman believes generational leaps in terms of visual fidelity are a thing in the past, but not because of hardware limitations, but rather because developmental tools have become very advanced
  • John Linneman mentioned developers were experimenting with different development tools and techniques during the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 era, during which best practices haven't been established yet
  • MVG mentioned the biggest thing in rendering techniques currently is that developers are pushing as many GPU instructions as possible to RAM, and pushing it in one go, due to the abundance of memory and memory bandwidth on consoles
  • MVG mentioned there haven't been many third party Nintendo Switch ports due to the Nintendo Switch having a narrow memory pipeline
  • Although the Nintendo Switch's hardware is outdated, John Linneman still thinks the fact the Nintendo Switch can still run nice looking games at 60 fps whilst running at less than 10 W (e.g. Burnout Paradise) is still somewhat magical
  • John Linneman thinks third party developers could re-explore some of the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 era games in their back catalogue, re-tool them, and sell them as remasters, re-releases, etc., on the Nintendo Switch, and get a decent amount of sales due to people's nostalgia of the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 era
  • NateDrake thinks third party support for the Nintendo Switch will wane down when Nintendo introduces new hardware in 2023 or 2024 due to the impracticality of targeting the Nintendo Switch hardware when developing a port of AAA games, and third party developers are communicating to Nintendo they want to release ports of AAA games to Nintendo's platform, but they need more powerful hardware to do so
  • NateDrake thinks that based on Drake, the features it has, and after making assumptions about the frequencies, etc., the new hardware could be comparable to the PlayStation 4 Pro, which is more than enough to receive downports of AAA PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S games, and there's nothing stopping the new hardware from receiving ports of AAA games
  • NateDrake believes Microsoft has done Nintendo a huge favour with the Xbox Series S, since if the new hardware can get Xbox Series S ports without too much compromises and can be upscaled using DLSS, Nintendo could be placed in an advantageous position with competitive hardware
  • John Linneman iterates DLSS isn't magic and there's a computational cost associated with DLSS, and the Xbox Series X|S already has access to FidelityFX Super Resolution, which is comparable to DLSS, despite not being as good as DLSS
  • MVG mentions DLSS introduces input lag, which John Linneman chimes in and says that's the case for DLSS 3, although John Linneman mentions games running at 120 fps using DLSS 3 does have lower latency compared to games running at 60 fps natively
  • John Linneman mentions DLSS 3 isn't beneficial if a game targets 30 fps from an input lag perspective (although visual fidelity could still be ok with DLSS 3)
  • John Linneman hopes Nintendo installs a VRR enabled display for the new hardware, although he thinks Nintendo's not likely to do so, with NateDrake chiming in saying he'd hope the display also supports HDR
  • John Linneman thinks Nintendo could be afraid of OLED burn in, and HDR may require displaying at higher nits of brightness, which is why a display might not support HDR, although there's a possibility the OLED model supports HDR when displaying at lower nits of brightness
  • NateDrake hopes that if the new hardware's display doesn't support HDR and VRR, the new hardware support those features in TV mode
  • MVG thinks the new hardware is likely a "Nintendo Switch 2" since the Nintendo Switch has been so popular, although the possibility Nintendo does something unexpected can't be denied
  • John Linneman mentioned Nintendo doing something unexpected was from a specific era (under Satoru Iwata's leadership), and with Nintendo's current leadership (with Shuntaro Furukawa) being very conservative, Nintendo could simply release a "Super Nintendo Switch"
  • John Linneman thinks the reason for a dry spell of first party Nintendo Switch games is because Nintendo released most of the first party games way too early, and now Nintendo's on the drawing board for the new hardware
  • Although MVG doesn't want to talk about in detail about backwards compatibility, MVG thinks backwards compatibility with the entire Nintendo Switch library could be one way to entice regular consumers to upgrade from the Nintendo Switch to the new hardware
  • John Linneman thinks Super Smash Bros, Mario Kart, Splatoon, and the Warrios games (e.g. Hyrule Warriors, etc.) have run its course and reached a dead end with the Nintendo Switch (since the Warriors games have marketed graphical improvements), although Nintendo could follow up with Mario Kart 9; and he doesn't know what Nintendo's going to do next
  • NateDrake thinks there needs to be more exciting, fresh, new innovations for game designs of some of Nintendo's iconic franchise (e.g. Splatoon)
  • John Linneman thinks perhaps a hub world of Splatoon could be directly linked to all the matches happening within an instance, see all the matches happening, and jump directly to one of the matches, thanks to more hardware power
  • John Linneman also thinks perhaps there's a single player level game with an instance of multiplayer running in the skybox below the player thanks to more hardware power
  • NateDrake and John Linneman believe the next Super Smash Bros game needs a reboot, although they don't know how Nintendo could make it new and fresh without Masahiro Sakurai and without alienating the Super Smash Bros community
  • NateDrake thinks new hardware will be released at around 20 months (around holiday 2024 - early 2025), with MVG concurring
  • NateDrake mentions hardware is a very difficult, fluid thing, and the industry's constantly changing, which results in previously reported information that was accurate at its time ultimately being inaccurate, although that doesn't necessarily make previous reporting wrong
  • MVG is ultimately glad Nintendo's moving forward with releasing a next-gen Nintendo Switch
  • MVG thinks the next-gen Nintendo Switch is a hybrid model, although he admits he's being safe
  • NateDrake thinks the next-gen Nintendo Switch will retain the portability aspect, but he doesn't expect a 1:1 match with what the Nintendo Switch is, and there's a differentiating factor between the next-gen hardware and the Nintendo Switch
  • John Linneman thinks the next-gen Nintendo Switch is a continuation of the Nintendo Switch, but better and faster
  • John Linneman believes the next-gen Nintendo Switch needs to support Unreal Engine 5 specific hardware features (e.g. Nanite, Lumen, virtual shadow maps, etc.), which he admits is a tall order since the Steam Deck struggles with maintaining performance when supporting those Unreal Engine 5 hardware specific features; and the next-gen Nintendo Switch needs to properly support 4K TVs (not necessarily render games at 4K)
  • John Linneman isn't confident the new hardware will have ray tracing support in actuality (but the SoC having support for ray tracing is possible, although a different matter) since ray tracing drains battery life and won't be able to compete with the PlayStation 5 and the Xbox Series X|S, and RDNA 2 already isn't great with respect with ray tracing, with MVG concurring
  • NateDrake thinks a limited form of ray tracing is possible, but only when in TV mode, with John Linneman and MVG saying Nintendo and third party developers don't want that to happen
  • NateDrake thinks the reason why Nintendo won't support certain hardware features isn't because Nvidia isn't able to provide (e.g. ray tracing), but rather because certain hardware features don't fit with Nintendo's goals
  • John Linneman wonders how Nintendo could have hypothetically handled a mid-gen refresh (for the Nintendo Switch family), with NateDrake mentioning that's for another podcast episode
 
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drake in 2025 would still be fine right? like, they'll be in basically the same situation as they were with switch, getting about two or three years before new consoles come out
 
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oh, i fully belive you that not having to do it is a godsend.
the memory usage is traded for processing, so depending on the game i absolutely can se benefits. I just dont see it as a "it is next gen", but as a valuable tool for developers to use when it makes sense, and not plaster it all over everything.
Why are you against the on/off toggle? cause the gamer that's not used to it will compare and be unsatisfied?
(Im all in for artistic intent on an initial release, im kinda iffy if later updates change stuff but dont give you the option to keep it the old way, not jsut with graphics but also with gameplay)
I dislike the lack of granularity. as we saw with The Witcher 3's RT update, they left a lot of performance on the table because they didn't have variable settings for the RT. we don't know how scalable Asobo's RT effects are, but offering up a lower fidelity/higher performance option is always appreciable
 
first 10 minutes in...thoughts...

a) good call to have John there
b) why this focus if pro or 2 or whatever.
maybe its just me, but we all are mainly expecting a switch with MORE power,in what form, eh.
c) i have seen the comment up there with 24/25, but i will wait till i get to that part.
 
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I dislike the lack of granularity. as we saw with The Witcher 3's RT update, they left a lot of performance on the table because they didn't have variable settings for the RT. we don't know how scalable Asobo's RT effects are, but offering up a lower fidelity/higher performance option is always appreciable
oh, thats what you mean. yeah, that i get,maybe there solution did not make that easy. in that regard, a variable setting would be better.
 
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I can't listen right now, what are the reasons given for a late 2024/ early 2025 prediction and is there any reconciliation with the NVN2 data from early 2022?
 
so, roughly two years from now

I'm not sure if I'll still be in a place in my life to line up for day one but maybe that'll be a good thing. new hardware coming out when I'm kind of over all this will make not being able to get one for nine months or longer feel a lot better lmao
 
If 2025 was correct I imagine a lot of third party support would dry up due to issues with performance on the current model.

Was anything regarding the leaked Drake stuff not mentioned?
 
I mean, could you stop this stuff given you're basing the motivation to post this on just another speculation?
As far as I'm aware, this whole thread is about speculations (it's in the title), so I have no choice.

Some people are just more optimistic than others. I'm not one of them.
 
As far as I'm aware, this whole thread is about speculations (it's in the title), so I have no choice.

But your stages of grief bullshit is not speculation. It's taking one speculation as the definitive truth.

It's not even on topic for me, it's meta commentary.
 
But your stages of grief bullshit is not speculation. It's taking one speculation as the definitive truth.

It's not even on topic for me, it's meta commentary.
This whole thread is one big wild ride filled with speculations. I am allowed to joke about it, just like how Raccoon, Skittzo and others do.

Sorry if I don't think Switch is coming soon.
 
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20 minutes it some of it still feels like ... coping?
now it is mentioned that we don't know ant cant know what soc was in those dev kits for the platform that got canceled.
23:00 ...again, the "now it makes sene tat its a new cycle and not a refresh" (paraphrasing) ...
i really feel like i dissagree with that point. not because "oh, obviously it makes sense", but because i did not expect a pro and then a new switch this late into the game, and more of an iteration like iphones, ...

and again, the "oh, third parties where important at the beginning, but now they are not important" ... yeah, to me this just really sounds like coping. Happy that nate counters with the performance argument (Bayonetta) for first party games. And john arguing "yeah, AoC and Pokemon dont count, since those are not nintendo titles"... hard dissagree here, those are developed for just that hardware, they can optimize the heck out of it, and nintendo was funding, so...
 
20 minutes it some of it still feels like ... coping?
now it is mentioned that we don't know ant cant know what soc was in those dev kits for the platform that got canceled.
23:00 ...again, the "now it makes sene tat its a new cycle and not a refresh" (paraphrasing) ...
i really feel like i dissagree with that point. not because "oh, obviously it makes sense", but because i did not expect a pro and then a new switch this late into the game, and more of an iteration like iphones, ...
yeahh I just got there and it seems like they really don't want to say "the leaked drake soc is canned" lol
 
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