souce: his ass
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
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Blue Monty
Inkling
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iNess could be a top tier Garbage Galaxy thread poster if he wanted instead of making weird post here.
D
Deleted member 1324
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I wonder if they mean the date for the Mario Movie Trailer, otherwise the post makes even less sense lol.
LiC
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"The chip from Twitter" has all of its GPU specs available for anyone with a torrent client to read in source code stolen from Nvidia in February of this year. I take this forum's amateur analysis of those specs with a lot of salt, but I trust unsubstantiated, unfalsifiable, second-hand rumors even less.
Edit: Also, didn't this exact conversation all already happen? You give claims about specs that aren't even that far out of line with the aforementioned analyses, but frame it like it's a big letdown and the rest of us are fooling ourselves about something, then you say you're quitting the forum after a few people question that framing?
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LiC
Member
What you're calling 90% or 95% confidence is more like 99.99999+% confidence. It is technically possible, but it is outlandish (hence my Hanafuda cards example).
If this were true, that would mean we got two separate confirmations of the specific Nvidia SoC called T239 in relation to a new DLSS-capable console from Nintendo, but it's actually not the DLSS-capable console they're going to release soon, but rather one they're releasing further in the future, and there is no sign either in the rumor mill or the extensive Nvidia hack of this other chip for the console that's actually closer to being released. And there is no sign of the graphics API for it, because the graphics API we can see, NVN2, is actually for some other console even though it does all the things the new Switch model is supposed to be capable of.
I agree it's good for people to remember that what's being taken as guaranteed here could still change. Just because a number was in the Nvidia hack doesn't mean it can't have been out of date, or a placeholder, or I misinterpreted it, or who knows what. I've said that since the beginning. But on the list of small yet non-zero possibilities, we're starting at a low enough value for "specs change dramatically from what's in the leak" and vanishing to infinitesimal size at "the hardware gets cancelled," and I would put the possibility below even them that the information is all for a next-gen Nintendo console despite that existence of a new Switch model that does all the same stuff.
Pooroomoo
Triangulum Strategem
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But wasn't it the same with Aula? Isn't there something now that is being similarly ignored because of this or that reason? Aula was also dismissed as "no way" in here.
Granted, there's no profile for something Aula like this time (I think ), but using the same logic there is no profile for Drake...
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Yea that was admittedly ridiculous. Before the Bloomberg articles personally I thought Aula was likely, and was always met with ridicule. Of course the Bloomberg articles silenced all Aula discussion.
And people made Aula out to be MK live, a theme park ride/ whatever else. That was dumb.
There is technically still an unused profile (Calcio), but it's missing so much hardware, it's broadly agreed to be a test board (like, there's not even a cart slot). It's also been around a lot longer than Aula. Unlike Aula, even the dataminers are fairly convinced it's not something ever releasing.
There's a lot of reasons to not necessarily expect direct evidence of Drake in firmware, but there is some notable indirect evidence such as a suspicious number of stubbed syscalls and a setting string pretty unambiguously related to 4k output.
Nintendo always do a Direct in september before the TGS
ShaunSwitch
Moblin
Man I'm really hyped for this 19th December direct now. I wonder if aonuma will dress up as red link/santa.
Like they always do one in June.
manfromthedam
Semi Undercover Game Music Guy
Aonuma will go as King Rhoam - he makes an excellent Santa with his epic white beard. Fujibayashi will obviously cosplay as Tingle. Miyamoto will make a cameo as a horse.
Lelouch0612
Growing Install Base
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They always do one during E3 yeah. 2020 and 2022 didn't change that fact.
Blue Monty
Inkling
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And they still did one this year even if it was a Partner Direct
Stinky Horse
Bob-omb
How did this conversation get derailed by what might be an advanced chatbot
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I hope I didn't come off as toxic or hostile, that was not at all my intention. I was simply trying to figure out what the technical basis was for your estimates, and trying to also inform you and the thread on some of the hard facts we do currently know.
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yeah, for E3
mjayer
Bob-omb
I for one would like you to stick around. Whatever you add to the conversation is still part of the fun. I think there was a lot of knee-jerk reaction to your speculation about 2-3x GPU just because it seems to contradict the Nvidia leak.
I’d like to enlist you on a top secret mission to date said developer and see what info he really knows.
Secret mission with happy ending?
If we're spitballing dates for possible Nintendo Directs, I would like to submit 9/14. It's far removed enough from TGS (as not to monopolize all the attention) and it is respectfully enough time from 9/11.
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LiC
Member
The thing about Aula which was "dismissed" was that it would have the same SoC, and that was simply because it was contradicted by the (ultimately incorrect) reporting in 2021 from sources who had nailed every detail of the 2019 Switch models. Right now there's no disagreement between what's been reported and the evidence we have from the software stack.
And I think your comparison is totally backwards, since the Aula profile is an example where certain things were spelled out explicitly, but people were still focused on the ways it could be wrong, misleading, or unused instead of accepting it at face value -- the same as coming up with theories for how T239 isn't for Nintendo or how it's for their secret next-gen console.
I was going to drop the Nikkei topic for good, but a thought popped into my head. That sentence in question was not referring to the fiscal year at all, but only the past quarter. Allow me to explain.
So I looked at the Nikkei Shimbun article again, and in the opening sentence the word "period" was used not once but twice in regard to this past fiscal quarter:
There you have it folks. The word "period" is defined as "fiscal quarter" right at the beginning of the report! It makes sense since the article is an analysis of the quarterly earnings. It also makes the sentence in question flow a lot better in context (underlines mine):
As someone who posted many times about Mochizuki's misreporting, I should've known better than taking Mochizuki's words at face value and avoided those fruitless discussions earlier. I'll add this to my (growing) list of questionable accounts from him.
It starts with "this period". Depends on the context it can be translated to "this fiscal year" or "this fiscal quarter". Obviously Mochizuki went with the former, and started this tempest in a teapot in the west. I previously did not question that interpretation; after all he's a native speaker. However, I noticed that the Nikkei quote didn't seem to garner much attention within Japan, and a few related articles that I saw were published by low quality outlets regurgitating the western reports based on nothing but the Mochizuki and Gibson tweets (e.g., Wccftech). Why the disinterest locally? Something is amiss.
So I looked at the Nikkei Shimbun article again, and in the opening sentence the word "period" was used not once but twice in regard to this past fiscal quarter:
"Nintendo announced on April 3 its consolidated financial results for the 2022 April-June period, with operating income down 15% from the same period last year to 101.6 billion yen."
There you have it folks. The word "period" is defined as "fiscal quarter" right at the beginning of the report! It makes sense since the article is an analysis of the quarterly earnings. It also makes the sentence in question flow a lot better in context (underlines mine):
"There was no announcement of an important new model this past quarter. In order to achieve its sales plan, the company will need to sell nearly 18 million units in the remaining nine months, a high hurdle. This is a warning sign for its market growth."
As someone who posted many times about Mochizuki's misreporting, I should've known better than taking Mochizuki's words at face value and avoided those fruitless discussions earlier. I'll add this to my (growing) list of questionable accounts from him.
When evaluating an upscaler such as the mClassic or 4K Gamer Pro, direct feed captures would give you an incomplete picture (no pun intended). A major source of image quality deficiency comes from the TV's built-in upscaler, which is often inadequate especially in the "game" mode. Taking pictures or videos from a camera actually may better show you how an external upscaler performs compared to an actual TV. Or better yet, play two directly-captured videos (one original and the other super-sampled) on your own TV for the most accurate comparison.
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
The Nvidia leak had very recent information, it leaked on March 1st this year with info only a week or two old, and that info indicates that there is only 1 configuration for the GPU, all 12SM being active. That isn't speculation, it just uses all cores. Obvious a 450MHz to 500MHz is already power saving for portable mode, and gets you PS4 like performance from the GPU, with a much newer architecture and DLSS, there isn't a reason to disable SM for power saving because if they wanted less power, they could simply clock it at say 300MHz, thing here is that we know how Nintendo operates and a PS4 target is right up their alley, just like Wii U was a '360+' machine.
Docked, the expectation should be about double whatever they do in portable mode. If they wanted to conserve power when portable, lower clocks is better than fewer shaders anyways, if their goal was PS4 when portable (which is only about 3 times what the current Switch can do when docked) and they went with 6SM, the clock would have to be ~900MHz, which could result in higher voltage for stability and generally higher clocks is more expensive per watt than more shaders for the same performance.
So the fact that they went with 12SM indicates that they will use them in both configurations and use clocks to control power management, this is also a much better solution when switching between dock and mobile as you wouldn't want to remove cache from the GPU while it is doing something, or it could cause errors since data would be missing while a scene is already being rendered. You'd need a whole system to manage closing those SM, where clocks are always dynamic in modern GPUs, so there is no issues or additional systems required to make it work.
The benefits also don't really exist, 12SM is a fairly small GPU, the smallest Ampere GPU and using even 5nm from Samsung should result in good yields, which is where my optimism is, it won't really change the system drastically, but I do think Nintendo wants this new model to last years, not a simple refresh waiting for a whole new system 24 months later, but rather another 4 or 5 years with this new hardware to release a whole new string of Nintendo's IP releases, which is why I believe Drake was always partnered with Zelda. They will seemingly treat it like an iterative successor at first, but in 2 years we will see first party games that don't run well on the current Switch if at all.
I guess I'll mention this here too, Nintendo has been looking into their own cloud services for hosting games, what I could see them doing is using cloud gaming to support their first party titles on the current Switch, and whenever you put a Drake game on a current Switch, it just runs that game in the cloud if you pay for NSO. It's a simple solution that keeps their 110M+ users buying their first party games without needing to upgrade, while still selling the upgrade to everyone who wants one and with OLED model's success, I think it's clear there would be plenty of demand for the new unit anyways.
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
Also Drake firmware doesn't need to be in the wild like current Switch models did, it has its own API and when it would act like a Switch, it wouldn't be in current Switch firmware, as the devices are completely separate, a big indicator for that is that they use a whole new API for it.
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I’ve been thinking about the casting idea from before but what about it being done differently for a VR/AR device?
Ok so manifest with me here….
You have Switch 2 right, ok you got it? It looks like the switch so don’t worry about stressing the imagination too much, just assume it’s stronger to handle things ok?
Now, just envision the device in the docked form and how it raises its performance level. Got it? Good. You know the switch works the way it does
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Here’s the different thing though and it is quite literally the Wii U concept but executed very differently, imagine that there’s a VR/AR headset released by Nintendo. This headset has no processing power though.
Why? Simple, the switch 2 would be casting from the docked switch but wirelessly to the headset that receives this. The headset has its own receiver for the information that the switch itself is casting and would be very low latency here.
Inside the headset, it is in essence a screen, the controllers that you use for it actually connect to the switch, not the headset. Or not the headset exclusively, more like working in together to offer the best wireless controller experience. We know that the joycons can work with very low latency on the switch and go up to 60Hz. Perhaps raise that to 90Hz when in VR mode?
Of course, the headset which is just a receiver that is just a display, would also be very light as a result.
now what benefit does this offer? You can display what you are casting on the switch but on the TV for others to see if they so choose. Or if you want to play in VR/AR mode by yourself, you can select “Do not show on Screen” or something.
This way it takes one of the comments I’ve seen that the switch itself is too heavy to have as a VR/AR headset that you dock on your head, it also addresses a concern of displaying it on a bigger screen to have more people involved. A.k.a. not playing by yourself and others can join.
This is more meant to be sort of like a wireless and a wired experienced but as a hybrid form of being executed. If you go too far from the switch in dock mode you actually risk less or worse performance. And in this way you can probably connect more than one VR/AR device and play together because it would just be the the VR/AR experience getting casted to the headset which, again, does not really have much or any processing power. Most if not all the processing power happens in the switch itself.
VR/AR Mario Kart anyone?
But it’s a separate purchase
Ok so manifest with me here….
You have Switch 2 right, ok you got it? It looks like the switch so don’t worry about stressing the imagination too much, just assume it’s stronger to handle things ok?
Now, just envision the device in the docked form and how it raises its performance level. Got it? Good. You know the switch works the way it does
.Here’s the different thing though and it is quite literally the Wii U concept but executed very differently, imagine that there’s a VR/AR headset released by Nintendo. This headset has no processing power though.
Why? Simple, the switch 2 would be casting from the docked switch but wirelessly to the headset that receives this. The headset has its own receiver for the information that the switch itself is casting and would be very low latency here.
Inside the headset, it is in essence a screen, the controllers that you use for it actually connect to the switch, not the headset. Or not the headset exclusively, more like working in together to offer the best wireless controller experience. We know that the joycons can work with very low latency on the switch and go up to 60Hz. Perhaps raise that to 90Hz when in VR mode?
Of course, the headset which is just a receiver that is just a display, would also be very light as a result.
now what benefit does this offer? You can display what you are casting on the switch but on the TV for others to see if they so choose. Or if you want to play in VR/AR mode by yourself, you can select “Do not show on Screen” or something.
This way it takes one of the comments I’ve seen that the switch itself is too heavy to have as a VR/AR headset that you dock on your head, it also addresses a concern of displaying it on a bigger screen to have more people involved. A.k.a. not playing by yourself and others can join.
This is more meant to be sort of like a wireless and a wired experienced but as a hybrid form of being executed. If you go too far from the switch in dock mode you actually risk less or worse performance. And in this way you can probably connect more than one VR/AR device and play together because it would just be the the VR/AR experience getting casted to the headset which, again, does not really have much or any processing power. Most if not all the processing power happens in the switch itself.
VR/AR Mario Kart anyone?
But it’s a separate purchase
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Kenka
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Could Drake simply be the hardware used in a cloud solution?
Drake would then run many 'consoles' in parallel.
The real power of the successor would then be whatever Drake puts out devided by the maximum intended sessions opened by the users.
It would allow Nintendo to segment their cloud offerings. You could get a '720p' subscription, a '1080p' subscription, a '4K' subscription, etc. depending on what juice you are ready to pay for from the farm.
Drake would then run many 'consoles' in parallel.
The real power of the successor would then be whatever Drake puts out devided by the maximum intended sessions opened by the users.
It would allow Nintendo to segment their cloud offerings. You could get a '720p' subscription, a '1080p' subscription, a '4K' subscription, etc. depending on what juice you are ready to pay for from the farm.
Foltzie
Uncle Muji
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Hey Siri turn off
Why would you use a low power chip for a cloud solution?
Also, cloud solutions stink for most users.
Why would you use a low power chip for a cloud solution?
Also, cloud solutions stink for most users.
I mean, wouldn’t it make more sense to use a gtx3090 or something, and run a ton more switches in parallel?
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That can of course be the case, but I doubt that Drake will solely be used for cloud services. Both MS and Sony launched their cloud services after releasing the console, and the hardware installed in the cloud server are almost matched 1 to 1 with the console hardware.
Kenka
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Thanks for replying quickly.
The problem is yield. If Nintendo wants to make the best use of the silicon it is provided with, it may as well go for a smaller chip. Going for a 'purely' cloud solution would help you spare on warehouse, packaging, dispatching and retail-associated costs. On the other side though, you would have to pay for electricity costs. And that is where a potentially low-power chip would help you cut costs on that front too.
KeijiKG
Moblin
We're 100 years behind at the minimum for Cloud to be a viable household solution as opposed to what service games like GoTG and RE7 are availalble as a pittance.
Heck at that point they shouldn't even limit themselves to ARM hardware for the remote hardware running the games.
mjayer
Bob-omb
I believe one year there was a huge direct on 9/11. Could be wrong but ya.
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They’re better off using NVidia’s cloud infrastructure than making their own imo
there's no reason for this when Nvidia makes hardware dedicated for this. hell, Grace Hopper combo is right there, an ARM/Nvidia combo ready for scaling in Geforce Now
if yields were a problem, they straight up wouldn't make that chip. a Drake that doesn't make it into a switch won't be good enough for Cloud anyway. that's what Jetson Nano is for
Teal'c
Shriekbat
I had speculated about the same solution some time ago, thinking perhaps about a possible Nintendo/Nvidia agreement for the use of Geforce Now but people had replied that it was impossible if I remember correctly.
I didn't know that Nintendo was creating its own cloud platform.... everything would make more sense.
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I’m not exactly sure where this idea is coming from about them building their own cloud infrastructure, nothing has actually indicated they’re doing that. All they’ve done is basically partner with existing cloud infrastructure providers rather than make the huge investment of their own. I will take it with copious amounts of salt and the comment about them looking for making their own cloud infrastructure. It doesn’t make sense for them to do so as they have a partner who has the exact same hardware but they provide and can literally just leverage their cloud infrastructure if they still need it. Hell they partnered with Amazon to leverage their web services.I had speculated about the same solution some time ago, thinking perhaps about a possible Nintendo/Nvidia agreement for the use of Geforce Now but people had replied that it was impossible if I remember correctly.
I didn't know that Nintendo was creating its own cloud platform.... everything would make more sense.
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Yeah the person who posted here about the past tense interpretation mentioned it was referring to fiscal quarter, not year.
It's kinda odd how Mochizuki seems laser focused on this topic especially considering how off his read on this article was.
NateDrake
Chain Chomp
Nikkei themselves didn't make a big deal about the quote -- hence, they knew it was nothing. Outlets shouldn't rush reports based on translations without full context. None of the reporting around the article/interview was justified or needed. But patience isn't what gets click nor is accuracy. Outrage secures the views and then the follow-up clarification is ignored.
Can you explain to yourself why even Mochizuki quoted it in that way (that no HW is coming in this FY).
I think this is where the main fuel comes from, isnt it?
EDIT: His tweet was confusing, since he didnt know if it was Furukawa or Nikkei, but now we know that neither one of them said anything/reported in this way.
NateDrake
Chain Chomp
Not my place to speculate why he read it or took the info the way he did.
Look over there
Bob-omb
So the fact that Nvidia already has their own cloud gaming infrastructure has already been brought up. Just to flesh that out a bit more, I'm looking at the FAQ page for GeForce NOW.
According to that, the different tiers have access to the equivalent of the 1060, 1080, 2080, and 3080.
The 1060 is 10 SMs on TSMC 16FF; 4.4 billion transistors and die size of 200 mm^2.
The 1080 is 20 SMs on TSMC 16FF; 7.2 billion transistors and die size of 314 mm^2.
The 2080 is 46 SMs on TSMC 12FF (which is refined 16FF for better density); 13.6 billion transistors and die size of 545 mm^2.
The 3080 is 68 SMs on Samsung 8; it's a cut down of a 628.4 mm^2 die with 28.3 billion transistors.
Now they did say the equivalent of, so it's not gonna be exactly those cards. But the general idea should remain the same: if selecting for cloud infrastructure usage, your thinking of when to be concerned about yields is going to be very different than compared to say, when selecting for what to be used in a Switch-type device or even something like the XSS.
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
The only reason to build a new architecture with a new api and custom hardware is to release it, they have been working on this for 3 years, if it was just a cloud platform it would be a pc.
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
I said cloud services, not that they were looking to build a cloud infrastructure.
Codename_Steam
Cappy
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If Nintendo uses TSMC 5/4nm for Drake, can we get PS4 like performance in handheld mode?
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