Next gen Nintendo hardware is about seeing first party games in next gen graphics, if I have to wait for the next Zelda in 2028-2029 to get Drake powered graphics for Zelda, then how is that not a hit on the overall hype of the system? I also just don't like when Nintendo coasts, that is how Wii U happens.If it launches late 2023 and misses Zelda by a few months I don’t really see how that makes much of a difference. Drake’s overall lineup will be pretty much the same if it launches in May or in the holidays bar Zelda and maybe a couple crossgen titles that would launch between May and Q3. If anything a holiday launch increases the probability of diving straight into exclusive next-gen 1st party games as opposed to a soft transition of cross gen titles.
I am OK with 2024. By that time, Drake will be antiquitated but it is OK as long as it supports Lumen and Nanite at all output resolutions.Ok now I am getting bad vibes. It can still be baseless speculations, but at some point we are going to have to read the room, aren't we?
I am waiting till Feb 10th and then I am treating myself to an OLED
First party games other than Zelda existNext gen Nintendo hardware is about seeing first party games in next gen graphics, if I have to wait for the next Zelda in 2028-2029 to get Drake powered graphics for Zelda, then how is that not a hit on the overall hype of the system? I also just don't like when Nintendo coasts, that is how Wii U happens.
Zelda can be my favorite though right? I can be a bit bummed if I don't get a next gen Zelda until the end of the decade. I love Nintendo games, but yeah Zelda is the reason I am a life long gamer.First party games other than Zelda exist
Why does everyone keep saying next Zelda is 2028-2029? There have been much smaller development times for Zelda games like MM and wind wakerNext gen Nintendo hardware is about seeing first party games in next gen graphics, if I have to wait for the next Zelda in 2028-2029 to get Drake powered graphics for Zelda, then how is that not a hit on the overall hype of the system? I also just don't like when Nintendo coasts, that is how Wii U happens.
Weird. Deepl skips over this line entirely when pasting the transcript, whereas Google translate picks it up. Yikes better hope they are wrong. Although this is likely a bad translation as well.* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
Cuz Zelda isn’t the only first party game, and ToTK on Drake still wouldn’t be a next gen Zelda. Even if Drake launches with ToTK you still won’t get Drake powered graphics for Zelda until whatever the next mainline entry is which is why I fail to see how it makes such a huge difference. Also Wii U had far more pressing issues than Nintendo coasting, it was a console that appealed to basically nobody with poor software support.Next gen Nintendo hardware is about seeing first party games in next gen graphics, if I have to wait for the next Zelda in 2028-2029 to get Drake powered graphics for Zelda, then how is that not a hit on the overall hype of the system? I also just don't like when Nintendo coasts, that is how Wii U happens.
Tbf it’s probably because SS, BoTW, and ToTK all took around 5-6 years. 2028 tracks for the next mainline.Why does everyone keep saying next Zelda is 2028-2029? There have been much smaller development times for Zelda games like MM and wind waker
First party games other than Zelda exist
Why does everyone keep saying next Zelda is 2028-2029? There have been much smaller development times for Zelda games like MM and wind waker
Anywhere between 10AM and 4PM CST it seems.what time is nate going to upload the video?
Thanks!Anywhere between 10AM and 4PM CST it seems.
Very good analysis this gave me more hopeThe Nikkei article discussed above is an opinion piece belonging to the "ビッグBiz解剖" (Big Biz Anatomy) column. As you can see there, they published a two-part analysis of Nintendo, part 1 being its hardware business and part 2 software.
Looking through the part 1 article regarding hardware (thanks to @ReddDreadtheLead and @LiC), there are only two pieces of new info:
- Nintendo has started negotiating with suppliers regarding production lines of the next model.
- Unlike a news report, the burden of proof for an opinion piece is much lower. The writer mentioned no sources here; we don't know if they actually talked to some suppliers or received secondhand hearsay.
- Even if the info is solid, we don't know when the writer obtained that info—could be very recent, weeks ago, or further before.
- The factory uncle #1, if we believe them, repeated more than a few times that different factories may be on different production schedules. Therefore, if Nintendo indeed negotiated with some suppliers recently, it doesn't necessary signal that no production had begun across all suppliers.
- Judging from the orders placed with suppliers, the Switch shipments may reach 20MM in 2023, and "the industry" expects the successor to be released in H2 2024.
- Again, no source but a nebulous "the industry". What industry are they referencing—developers, suppliers, analysts, or something else?
- The writer also did not specify it being fiscal year or calendar. Due to the context I'd say calendar year. This brings me to the next point...
- "20MM"? Why would Nintendo forecast selling more units in CY23 than in CY22 if no new hardware?
- It seems that the "H2 2024" expectation is not based on any direct knowledge but the CY23 order volume. Not only is the number suspect, but the new model likely will share some components/parts with the current Switch; I don't think that one can confidently project the successor's release window this way.
"Fiscal year" was a mistranslation but "fiscal quarter". It wasn't a prediction or insider info, but a statement of fact that "no new model was announced in the past fiscal quarter." Unfortunately the bloggers/content creators flooded the internet with the misinterpretation; for their finely-honed SEO chops, the "fiscal year" reporting is all we can find today.Miss Nikkei always come with the tea. What they said about 2022 hardware:
If they say there are negotiations happening, it is happening. This is inline with the Famistu article.Nikkei Report Says No New Nintendo Hardware Is Coming This Fiscal Year
"No" to the Switch Prowww.nintendolife.com
Mario Kart doesn't sell Hardware, it's Nintendo's best-selling franchise, but I don't know anyone who buys their consoles to play MK, it's usually a game that always comes together, an great addition, but not the main reason (which is usually Mario, Zelda, Pokémon or even Animal Crossing).To me, all this sounds like 2024 at the earliest.
There are various schools of thought as to whether 2024 (or later) is potentially a mistake or not, and I think the division is mainly between those that believe Switch is a Nintendo games console while 3rd party games are just icing on the cake at best, and those that believe 3rd party offerings had a significant part in how successful Switch was. (And of course there are people in between, there are not just two groups).
If you belong to the former group, Switch 2 might as well come out in 2025 and will still be as successful as it could be as long as there are Nintendo games to back it up. All Nintendo needs to do is come out with an exclusive Mario Kart 9, and Switch 2 will sell like hotcakes. It doesn't really matter that they had the opportunity to strike the iron while hot while PS5 was still not so strongly entrenched and cross-generation games were still a thing, it doesn't matter which 3rd party games they will lose out on (that they could have had) because they are already deep in development and platforms have been finalized, it doesn't matter if someone figures out how to make a better Switch (e.g. a new much improved Steamdeck) as long as it does not have Nintendo games on it, etc etc
If you belong to the latter group (full disclosure - I do), all the above that relates to 3rd parties does matter and there is a good chance it will affect Switch 2 success significantly. Is it all doom and gloom? Not necessarily, there are a lot of factors at play, but I guess we'll see.
Most current gen games are still last gen PS4 crossgen games, that doesn't stop those titles from taking advantage of PS5's graphics, likewise a game getting a 4K patch and a game ported to a more powerful Switch in the leap of performance Drake offers over TX1 is VERY different... Ray Tracing, new Assets, different shaders, there is simply a big difference from a finished game getting a patch 12 months to 18 months after it's release, and a game launching alongside new hardware, especially when Nintendo has stated on many occasions that Zelda is a graphical showpiece game that is meant to push their hardware. (specifically thinking about Iwata's comments about Zelda's graphics)I'm confused what difference it makes if Drake launches with Zelda in May or later in terms of "seeing a next gen Zelda game". It's still a game made for Switch, and even if the console releases later do we not expect a Drake patch? The results would be the same either way, we'd get an old gen game improved for the new console.
In my mind there are so many other exciting next gen opportunities for Drake. The next Mercury Steam Metroid game given how good Dread looked and run, Next Level's Luigi's Mansion, the next 3D Kirby bigger and better, or (if Bowser's Fury is any indication) the absolute visual banger that will be the next Mario game. Even 2D Zelda will be fascinating, given how Link's Awakening was pushing the original hardware. And can you imagine what kind of graphics Mario Kart 10 could have? Also, 60fps HD-2D games.
We're talking about the first major leap in visuals for Nintendo games since the Wii U, over ten years ago. It's going to be exciting, we will be feasting in 2024.
IMO Mario hasn't been Nintendo's "prestige" series for a while - Zelda is. Looking at scope, development time and the fact that it's a proper Kyoto game (where much of EPD is situated) while Mario has a separate team in Tokyo, I don't think it's a stretch to say at all.At the risk of sounding like a broken record - literally none of their titles are in the same league. One could make an argument for 3D Mario, but the remainder of the selection doesn’t carry even half the ambition and scope of Breath of the Wild, and I assume the same will be true of future ‘Open-Air’ titles.
That report was likely a finalized deal at that point, just a few months before production. There were other reports the year before about them investigating mini-LED.We got a report on Nintendo contracting Samsung to make the OLED screens in March 2021, which were said to begin manufacturing in June and shipping to assemblers in July, for a system that was ultimately revealed in July and released in October. That's basically 3+1+3 months. So if we believe that supplier contracts are being discussed right now (which is questionable given the context of the Nikkei article!), to me that would strongly indicate something planned for release this year.
Yeah, im on the same boat. There are to many nintendo fans that are always happy with what they get as long as they get nintendo first party releases, but the overall public is not the same, otherwise the wiiu would have less of a failure, the wii wouldn't have fallen off a cliff and the 3DS would have sold better at the start. As it stands, the hardcore nintendo ip fans are a sizable chunk thats not to be ignored, but not enough to make a platform a success.Next gen Nintendo hardware is about seeing first party games in next gen graphics, if I have to wait for the next Zelda in 2028-2029 to get Drake powered graphics for Zelda, then how is that not a hit on the overall hype of the system? I also just don't like when Nintendo coasts, that is how Wii U happens.
Yeah, usually when you use old chips (and by that time drakes architecture wont be new) you have the benefit of it being cheap, but if nvidia does not use it in other products that wont happen, so...full price for not up to date chips sounds less ideal. (not that it will ruin switch2s launch or sales, its just kinda dissapointing to think about lost pottential)I am OK with 2024. By that time, Drake will be antiquitated but it is OK as long as it supports Lumen and Nanite at all output resolutions.
Also, wait for the Zelda OLED. It looks spectacular on the leaked pictures.
Yeah. that's what i feel many are ignoring, while third parties did not MAKE the switch (that still is the first party output), miracle ports and such did definitely help it being such a success. Ignoring their needs would just be the same error they made in the 90ties.My main reason for wanting a new system is so the third party support keeps up. Hoping for more native ports rather than cloud (I would have been all over Kingdom Hearts had it been native)
Switch handheld suits my current lifestyle so the more big third party games it gets the better.
...i honestly dont know it that would be possible with drake. that was just CGI (i assume what aonuma meant was less that its was gameplay, and more that it reflects real gameplay (horses, being huntd by guardians, jumping from the horse to shoot ancient arrows...).Still waiting for a Zelda that looks like the Wii U reveal trailer
...and those where 20 years ago when game dev times where shorter.Why does everyone keep saying next Zelda is 2028-2029? There have been much smaller development times for Zelda games like MM and wind waker
Its not the only, but the one that (next to MP) has the best chances to be an obvious graphic showcase. With Smash and mario kart im not shure that it could even look thaaaat much better outside of higher resolution. Those games are coming to the limit of asset production.Cuz Zelda isn’t the only first party game, and ToTK on Drake still wouldn’t be a next gen Zelda. Even if Drake launches with ToTK you still won’t get Drake powered graphics for Zelda until whatever the next mainline entry is which is why I fail to see how it makes such a huge difference. Also Wii U had far more pressing issues than Nintendo coasting, it was a console that appealed to basically nobody with poor software support.
Drake launching in May, or Holidays, or Q1 2024 (tho I doubt it’ll be that late!) wont impact much in terms of success, certainly wouldn’t lead to a Wii-U level catastrophe unless Nintendo makes basically no games for it.
if they really planned them to be launched ad the same time and have a native drake version, well...sad to play the game first with the base switch. but if not, and its just a 4k patch, then it makes a big difference:I'm confused what difference it makes if Drake launches with Zelda in May or later in terms of "seeing a next gen Zelda game". It's still a game made for Switch, and even if the console releases later do we not expect a Drake patch? The results would be the same either way, we'd get an old gen game improved for the new console.
In my mind there are so many other exciting next gen opportunities for Drake. The next Mercury Steam Metroid game given how good Dread looked and run, Next Level's Luigi's Mansion, the next 3D Kirby bigger and better, or (if Bowser's Fury is any indication) the absolute visual banger that will be the next Mario game. Even 2D Zelda will be fascinating, given how Link's Awakening was pushing the original hardware. And can you imagine what kind of graphics Mario Kart 10 could have? Also, 60fps HD-2D games.
We're talking about the first major leap in visuals for Nintendo games since the Wii U, over ten years ago. It's going to be exciting, we will be feasting in 2024.
I agree with your thoughts about the groups, but I don't think it's entirely relevant to the successor's timeline.To me, all this sounds like 2024 at the earliest.
There are various schools of thought as to whether 2024 (or later) is potentially a mistake or not, and I think the division is mainly between those that believe Switch is a Nintendo games console while 3rd party games are just icing on the cake at best, and those that believe 3rd party offerings had a significant part in how successful Switch was. (And of course there are people in between, there are not just two groups).
If you belong to the former group, Switch 2 might as well come out in 2025 and will still be as successful as it could be as long as there are Nintendo games to back it up. All Nintendo needs to do is come out with an exclusive Mario Kart 9, and Switch 2 will sell like hotcakes. It doesn't really matter that they had the opportunity to strike the iron while hot while PS5 was still not so strongly entrenched and cross-generation games were still a thing, it doesn't matter which 3rd party games they will lose out on (that they could have had) because they are already deep in development and platforms have been finalized, it doesn't matter if someone figures out how to make a better Switch (e.g. a new much improved Steamdeck) as long as it does not have Nintendo games on it, etc etc
If you belong to the latter group (full disclosure - I do), all the above that relates to 3rd parties does matter and there is a good chance it will affect Switch 2 success significantly. Is it all doom and gloom? Not necessarily, there are a lot of factors at play, but I guess we'll see.
I'm far from a tech expert so I won't pretend otherwise, but if the Switch revision was indeed cancelled because of a chip shortage, maybe they want to launch later in 2024 when they think they'll have more ready? Nintendo has been operating in strange ways ever since COVID.We'll have to see what the full year results come in at but a 20m fiscal year for the upcoming 12 months is plainly not happening so as far as I'm concerned that article is already operating from a false pretense. March 2024 is 7 years which is about what Sony and MS have operated at for the last 15 years so Nintendo operating on a more standardized gen makes sense.
I dont really get why they would for example design the chip and picks a fab like 8nm (if that is what it is) for something soooooo far out though so that's my only questioning about H2 2024. Seems like the process is too far along chip wise for somethung 2 years out.
It's not about them, it's about us!If Nintendo doesn’t release a new console this year, they’ll be fine guys lol.
Dual screen to see the sky and lands of Hyrule easily <3I have a feeling that TOTK has been developed with something special for the Switch 2 in mind. Whether it's two games in production at once or an upgrade with an expansion (possibly even online) coming to the Switch 2.
It will be more than a mere graphics upres remaster and provide strong incentive to upgrade.
I just hope they don’t plan on releasing anything ambitious after Totk until the next console is out.If Nintendo doesn’t release a new console this year, they’ll be fine guys lol.
The problem with wanting sources is that NDAs tend to prevent specific ones from being named, and sometimes they prefer going anonymous.The Nikkei article discussed above is an opinion piece belonging to the "ビッグBiz解剖" (Big Biz Anatomy) column. As you can see there, they published a two-part analysis of Nintendo, part 1 being its hardware business and part 2 software.
Looking through the part 1 article regarding hardware (thanks to @ReddDreadtheLead and @LiC), there are only two pieces of new info:
- Nintendo has started negotiating with suppliers regarding production lines of the next model.
- Unlike a news report, the burden of proof for an opinion piece is much lower. The writer mentioned no sources here; we don't know if they actually talked to some suppliers or received secondhand hearsay.
- Even if the info is solid, we don't know when the writer obtained that info—could be very recent, weeks ago, or further before.
- The factory uncle #1, if we believe them, repeated more than a few times that different factories may be on different production schedules. Therefore, if Nintendo indeed negotiated with some suppliers recently, it doesn't necessary signal that no production had begun across all suppliers.
- Judging from the orders placed with suppliers, the Switch shipments may reach 20MM in 2023, and "the industry" expects the successor to be released in H2 2024.
- Again, no source but a nebulous "the industry". What industry are they referencing—developers, suppliers, analysts, or something else?
- The writer also did not specify it being fiscal year or calendar. Due to the context I'd say calendar year. This brings me to the next point...
- "20MM"? Why would Nintendo forecast selling more units in CY23 than in CY22 if no new hardware?
- It seems that the "H2 2024" expectation is not based on any direct knowledge but the CY23 order volume. Not only is the number suspect, but the new model likely will share some components/parts with the current Switch; I don't think that one can confidently project the successor's release window this way.
It's nice to be asleep during the doom phase and wake up during the clarification phase.The Nikkei article discussed above is an opinion piece belonging to the "ビッグBiz解剖" (Big Biz Anatomy) column. As you can see there, they published a two-part analysis of Nintendo, part 1 being its hardware business and part 2 software.
Looking through the part 1 article regarding hardware (thanks to @ReddDreadtheLead and @LiC), there are only two pieces of new info:
- Nintendo has started negotiating with suppliers regarding production lines of the next model.
- Unlike a news report, the burden of proof for an opinion piece is much lower. The writer mentioned no sources here; we don't know if they actually talked to some suppliers or received secondhand hearsay.
- Even if the info is solid, we don't know when the writer obtained that info—could be very recent, weeks ago, or further before.
- The factory uncle #1, if we believe them, repeated more than a few times that different factories may be on different production schedules. Therefore, if Nintendo indeed negotiated with some suppliers recently, it doesn't necessary signal that no production had begun across all suppliers.
- Judging from the orders placed with suppliers, the Switch shipments may reach 20MM in 2023, and "the industry" expects the successor to be released in H2 2024.
- Again, no source but a nebulous "the industry". What industry are they referencing—developers, suppliers, analysts, or something else?
- The writer also did not specify it being fiscal year or calendar. Due to the context I'd say calendar year. This brings me to the next point...
- "20MM"? Why would Nintendo forecast selling more units in CY23 than in CY22 if no new hardware?
- It seems that the "H2 2024" expectation is not based on any direct knowledge but the CY23 order volume. Not only is the number suspect, but the new model likely will share some components/parts with the current Switch; I don't think that one can confidently project the successor's release window this way.
MS will never drop the Series S over Lazy Dev's cry on Twitter, it would be an unprecedented shot in the foot and a slap in the face to consumers. And even if it did, it would be idiotic don't launching your game in the Series S when it's the biggest part of the XBox on the market, in fact most Steam users don't have GPUs superior to his.just think, by late 2024 the cross-gen period will be thoroughly over, and xbox might have even dropped the series s
we'll be back to hoping for miracle ports
yeah, they won't stop until everyone has upgradedNintendo is probably planning lots of different Special Edition Oled Switch for several games the second half year
Based on the Nikkei opinion piece with extremely questionable logic about them expecting 20M console sales in 2023?Frankly, feels more like denial phase. Just four more phases until acceptance.
Early 2023 does not seem to be happening at all. Maybe not even late 2023.
They can't get me, a V1 Switch for super-easy CFW will always feel superior than anything that isn't Drake.yeah, they won't stop until everyone has upgraded
gotta keep this thread alive right?Why are we treating an opinion piece with some questionable analysis as a report?
They can't get me, a V1 Switch for super-easy CFW will always feel superior than anything that isn't Drake.
gotta keep this thread alive right?
Make sure Tommy is readyOh, i assume this thread will be active enough once Nate drops his podcast today.
No that is not a hint or anything, i do not no about the podcasts content or anything.