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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

3D Mario is a no-brainer.
Like one of the writers, I'l love something utterly new, e.g something fresh with the great look of arms but less gimmicky gameplay.
I really want a new monolith game year 1. As well as a game that can stand with Splatoon and ARMS in creativity. Just not ARMS 2 we (I) do NOT need that. 3D mario is a lock in for me day 1.
 
Sorry, had some old quotes I forgot to delete, if it says you got a notification for this post, my bad.
On the subject of new game card formats, I've done a little bit of digging and found what I believe to be the prime candidate for the tech behind the next gen game cards; single-gate vertical channel (SGVC) 3D NAND. In 2017 Macronix published a paper on the technology, including results on a test chip they had manufactured. I don't have access to the paper itself, but the abstract is pretty informative:



There are a few important things here. It's got very long data retention (40+ years), is described as "very suitable for read-intensive memory", and achieves high capacities at low cost. The sample chip they manufactured was 128Gb (16GB) on a 16-layer process, and they claim that 1Tb (128GB) chips would be possible on a 48-layer process at low cost. It could presumably scale even further in capacity with additional layers.

That seems like a technology pretty much perfectly designed for Nintendo. In fact this article about it stated it was "suitable for read-intensive applications such as game-grade memory". I don't know if this is a quote from Macronix or the author's addition, but it would be surprising if Macronix didn't see this as something they could provide to Nintendo.

In 2019, this article stated that Macronix planned to introduce SGVC after their ordinary (GAA-based) 3D NAND business is established. That's taken a bit longer than expected, but they started mass production of 48-layer GAA 3D NAND in 2021 and 96-layer in 2022. Which would put the introduction of SGVC 3D NAND at right around the right time to be used for Nintendo's new console.

Incidentally, it appears that Macronix have been using a mix of XtraROM and NAND in Switch game cards all along. Thanks to @LiC who passed the info along to me. Game cards up to 4GB seem to use XtraROM, while cards 8GB and up use NAND. No specifics on the NAND, but presumably it's tweaked in some way to provide better longevity in a write-once use-case. I don't know whether they're using any 3D NAND, but that's only been available from Macronix recently, so anything prior to last year would have to be planar NAND.

This also explains why development on XtraROM ceased after they hit 32nm in 2014, as they switched to a NAND variant. The 4GB capacity of the largest XtraROM parts is the same as the largest 3DS games (although they claimed 8GB, I don't think any games actually used 8GB cards), so it seems like 4GB is the limit of capacity on 32nm XtraROM.
See, this still confuses me. Why are ALL of the chips factory-etched with unique Nintendo product codes for each title when it's literally just NAND? Any engineer worth their paycheque could make an automated assembly line to program a NAND chip and there's no sense etching the chips if Macronix isn't also the one programming them, which leads to a reasonable conclusion that Macronix is also programming them. It adds a time delay to final retail delivery that seems wholly and entirely unnecessary. It's terrible logistics planning, plain and simple.
Thanks, unfortunately the link does work for me (I'm getting a "sci-hub.se cannot be reached" error).



The specs are interesting, but there's probably not a whole lot to read into them. 3.3V/1.8V are standard for NAND chips (although 1.2V is becoming more common now). The interface, if it's a standard x8 configuration, would give 133MB/s, but (a) this was six years ago, (b) given it's a test chip to prove out the technology, the interface may not have any relationship to what they'd use on final hardware, and (c) if they used this on a game card they probably wouldn't use a standard flash interface anyway. The 48TSOP package seems to be commonly used on a variety of Macronix parts. I think they only use 16LGA on Nintendo game cards currently, but it is a reasonably common standard used by other manufacturers.



It's hard to say. They were getting 133MB/s on test chips in 2017 (with all the caveats listed above), so it's probably a reasonably safe assumption that they could hit higher speeds on production chips in 2024, but any number we could come up with would be purely a guess.

I suspect the bigger issue might be the interface between game cards and the console. They currently use an 8-bit wide SPI-style interface, clocked at either 25MHz or 50MHz, providing up to 50MB/s of bandwidth. It's an evolution of the interface they've used going back to the DS, and although it has the benefit of being simple and cheap to implement, it's not something you'd use to hit GB/s speeds. Macronix also use SPI-style interfaces for their serial NAND and NOR products, and the fastest parts they're offering run at 166MHz, with a 200MHz part under development. I haven't found SPI interfaces in use much higher than 200MHz elsewhere, either, although I'll admit I haven't done a particularly thorough search. If Nintendo updated the existing game card interface to run at 200MHz, they'd get 200MB/s, which would be a decent upgrade on the current cards, although still well short of their internal storage (if they actually do use 512GB of internal storage, the slowest 512GB parts hit 1.7GB/s, and even 128GB/256GB UFS 2 would hit a baseline of 850MB/s).

So, if they want game cards much faster than 200MB/s, then they'll need to change the game card interface. Designing a gigabit-level interface from scratch in-house doesn't seem like a sensible use of R&D spending, so they would have to look for an existing standard they can use and potentially modify, and in particularly one which doesn't have per-device license fees. The only two I'm aware of that would suit their needs would be PCIe and M-PHY (the physical interface used by UFS). Both only require a small annual membership fee to the standards organisation and have no further license fees, and both match or exceed Nintendo's required performance and are widely adopted. They'll also continue to be improved with updated specifications for a long time.

If I were to guess, I'd say PCIe is more likely. It's more widely used, and T239 has ample PCIe connectivity. Even a single PCIe 4 lane (4 wires) would give them 2GB/s to work with. It would also allow them to connect the card slot directly to the SoC without any intermediate chips. Because the current Switch card interface is proprietary, it requires a separate chip on the motherboard which translates from eMMC commands from the TX1, and also provides a variety of crypto functionality. If they can move that crypto work onto the SoC, they can eliminate an extra custom IC and save costs.
Last I saw, Nintendo has a M-PHY license already, even though there's nothing to indicate they've yet used it in shipped hardware. That may just relate to eUFS (or even UFS Card for external storage), but if it serves the purpose and they're already working with it... why not, right?
 
3D Mario is a no-brainer.
Like one of the writers, I'l love something utterly new, e.g something fresh with the great look of arms but less gimmicky gameplay.

What was gimmicky about the gameplay of Arms?

One of the worse things about Nintendo online discussion is how anything they do is referred to as a gimmick or gimmicky. It’s just such low level discourse.
 


Well we will likely have our first cross gen games announced in 4 days lol. Wonder if we'll be able to tell based on how the game looks lol. "Too big for switch" DF video incoming?

What do you mean by cross gen in this context? Do we know this game will be on switch 2? From the 4chan leak?
 
Thanks, unfortunately the link does work for me (I'm getting a "sci-hub.se cannot be reached" error).

The specs are interesting, but there's probably not a whole lot to read into them. 3.3V/1.8V are standard for NAND chips (although 1.2V is becoming more common now). The interface, if it's a standard x8 configuration, would give 133MB/s, but (a) this was six years ago, (b) given it's a test chip to prove out the technology, the interface may not have any relationship to what they'd use on final hardware, and (c) if they used this on a game card they probably wouldn't use a standard flash interface anyway. The 48TSOP package seems to be commonly used on a variety of Macronix parts. I think they only use 16LGA on Nintendo game cards currently, but it is a reasonably common standard used by other manufacturers.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/s/uke8194tracc1mj/macronix_sgvc_3d_nand_lue2017.pdf

The specs they listed include the "CMOS peripheral" specific to the test chip they manufactured, so not the interface of a Switch game card.

See, this still confuses me. Why are ALL of the chips factory-etched with unique Nintendo product codes for each title when it's literally just NAND? Any engineer worth their paycheque could make an automated assembly line to program a NAND chip and there's no sense etching the chips if Macronix isn't also the one programming them, which leads to a reasonable conclusion that Macronix is also programming them. It adds a time delay to final retail delivery that seems wholly and entirely unnecessary. It's terrible logistics planning, plain and simple.
They're not just NAND. We don't know exactly what Macronix is doing to create the "ROM type" NAND that meets Nintendo's read durability and lifespan needs, but even beyond that, the game cards have proprietary communication and cryptography that needs to be established, and all of that is built into the chip. The packaging of the NAND-based 8 GB+ chips is such that even the connectors you can see on the back on the game cards are just sticking out of the back of the Macronix chip; there's no separate PCB like the XtraROM chips (i.e. the whole thing is what Nintendo needs, not just an off-the-shelf NAND chip anyone could program). I doubt this inefficiency you're imagining really exists.
 
What do you mean by cross gen in this context? Do we know this game will be on switch 2? From the 4chan leak?
S/V DLC is out in Fall and Early Next year. They are announcing new Gen 5 related games in this presents (Riddler Khu has been talking about it for a while, most reliable leaker of all time, also the most annoying). Those games would probably release in Holiday 2024 because logic. Switch 2 is releasing H2 next year. If they are announcing the games now they would be on switch. If they come out Holiday 2024 they would probably push them for Switch 2. My conclusion = cross gen
 
Who is getting hot and bothered or even offended?

I didn't see a single post that did this. Lol.
I’m sorry but I just have to butt in. There are plenty of switch games that are visually stunning. He seems to be the type that sees a piece turd running at 4K to be “visually stunning” methinks. It is quite bothersome because that ad specifically has no intention of demeaning the switch. The uploader confirmation bias kicking in really hard.

Also this is a job ad. Y’all want them to be say, “please come and work at these crappy looking games”? “your contribution will shape the OLD generation of games”?
Maybe read and you’ll find out.

Why don't they make a nintendo switch computer?
I mean…. that’s what the switch is….

Technically :p, it’s a specialized computer, well the origins should be traced to the FamiCom or the Family Computer.

There’s also older consoles that had the keyboard peripheral, like the GameCube.


s-l600.jpg


I wonder if they’ll bring that back with Drake for certain games 🤔

Though doubtful since the switch already has Mouse and Keyboard support for some games (see Quake), so maybe they’ll forgo it and leave it up to developers.
Gamefreak will achieve Switch 1 level graphics and performance on Drake. If we are lucky.
I mean, that’s a step up. ;).
 
Cross gen in this case meaning - sure you can play this exactly the same way on Switch 2. And even if that's not the case, there's no way in hell it will be acknowledged or even hinted at in 4 days. I'd be shocked if there are "too good for Switch" takes that aren't jokes, but I am sure someone will suggest it anyway.
 


Well we will likely have our first cross gen games announced in 4 days lol. Wonder if we'll be able to tell based on how the game looks lol. "Too big for switch" DF video incoming?

Nah, that'll be after the DLC is finished. Even then, I don't know if these next games will need to be cross-gen (I'm expecting them to be remakes, whether they're going to be Gen 5 or Let's Go Johto is up in the air).
 
S/V DLC is out in Fall and Early Next year. They are announcing new Gen 5 related games in this presents (Riddler Khu has been talking about it for a while, most reliable leaker of all time, also the most annoying). Those games would probably release in Holiday 2024 because logic. Switch 2 is releasing H2 next year. If they are announcing the games now they would be on switch. If they come out Holiday 2024 they would probably push them for Switch 2. My conclusion = cross gen
Praying to God that the Gen 5 remakes are HD-2D. That sprite work is the pinnacle of the series.

Also, I'm pretty sure Khu has gotten things wrong before.
 
If I were to guess, I'd say PCIe is more likely. It's more widely used, and T239 has ample PCIe connectivity. Even a single PCIe 4 lane (4 wires) would give them 2GB/s to work with. It would also allow them to connect the card slot directly to the SoC without any intermediate chips. Because the current Switch card interface is proprietary, it requires a separate chip on the motherboard which translates from eMMC commands from the TX1, and also provides a variety of crypto functionality. If they can move that crypto work onto the SoC, they can eliminate an extra custom IC and save costs.

I went digging and not shockingly came back to this thread. . .
Falcon/TSEC: FAst Logic CONtroller, used in lots of things. Drake's seems to be different from Orin. A Falcon is used in TSEC, the Tegra Security Coprocessor in the X1, which accelerates cryptography and is part of the secure OS boot process that prevents the Switch from being jailbroken
Now this isn't the chip between the Game Card interface and Switch motherboard, but the customization for Drake could imply additional Nintendo specific features.
 
Nah, that'll be after the DLC is finished. Even then, I don't know if these next games will need to be cross-gen (I'm expecting them to be remakes, whether they're going to be Gen 5 or Let's Go Johto is up in the air).
My reasoning is that riddler khu ramped up his gen 5 tweets a lot, like a lot a lot and he's never been wrong with major info. In like 6 years of leaking pokemon stuff (to my knowledge). I don't think Johto is on the table.
 


Well we will likely have our first cross gen games announced in 4 days lol. Wonder if we'll be able to tell based on how the game looks lol. "Too big for switch" DF video incoming?

Pokemon is traditionally LTTP when it comes to new consoles, so I wouldn't expect a new title in the first year of the console.
 
Pokemon is traditionally LTTP when it comes to new consoles, so I wouldn't expect a new title in the first year of the console.
The jump from gba, ds, 3ds, switch is different from switch to switch 2, at least in my head. I don't think the LTTP approach really makes as much sense here. Unless it's completely different architecture and they have to learn to develop in a different way.
 
I don't want to add more to this graphics discourse, but I am partially responsible for it being brought up, soooo:

While there have been comprimises that have even seeped into first-party games, I don't think that every game on Switch looks terrible, even if I want better. Honestly, my big concern is with frame rates. I wound up dropping Persona 5 Strikers on Switch because I wasn't jiving with a 30fps Musou game, despite beating and loving Age of Calamity. I want to continue it on better hardware, but I'm not sure how much of a boost a game like that will get through hardware alone, since I'm not sure if Atlus or Omega Force will go back to patch it.
 
See, this still confuses me. Why are ALL of the chips factory-etched with unique Nintendo product codes for each title when it's literally just NAND? Any engineer worth their paycheque could make an automated assembly line to program a NAND chip and there's no sense etching the chips if Macronix isn't also the one programming them, which leads to a reasonable conclusion that Macronix is also programming them. It adds a time delay to final retail delivery that seems wholly and entirely unnecessary. It's terrible logistics planning, plain and simple.
They're not just NAND. We don't know exactly what Macronix is doing to create the "ROM type" NAND that meets Nintendo's read durability and lifespan needs, but even beyond that, the game cards have proprietary communication and cryptography that needs to be established, and all of that is built into the chip. The packaging of the NAND-based 8 GB+ chips is such that even the connectors you can see on the back on the game cards are just sticking out of the back of the Macronix chip; there's no separate PCB like the XtraROM chips (i.e. the whole thing is what Nintendo needs, not just an off-the-shelf NAND chip anyone could program). I doubt this inefficiency you're imagining really exists.
Indeed, if anything I'm surprised that there isn't visible etching/screening visible around the copper pins. I know the card itself is screened.

Having the chips etched would be important for any sort of post manufacturing identification, validation, ect. Maybe if the chips go straight from manufacturing, into a Game Card case on the same line you could do without, but I suspect there is some step between the machines, if outright not different factories.
 
I don't want to add more to this graphics discourse, but I am partially responsible for it being brought up, soooo:

While there have been comprimises that have even seeped into first-party games, I don't think that every game on Switch looks terrible, even if I want better. Honestly, my big concern is with frame rates. I wound up dropping Persona 5 Strikers on Switch because I wasn't jiving with a 30fps Musou game, despite beating and loving Age of Calamity. I want to continue it on better hardware, but I'm not sure how much of a boost a game like that will get through hardware alone, since I'm not sure if Atlus or Omega Force will go back to patch it.
frames > everything else. If it isn't a turn based rpg I'd take the biggest most disgusting hit in resolution for frames any day of the week.
 
The jump from gba, ds, 3ds, switch is different from switch to switch 2, at least in my head. I don't think the LTTP approach really makes as much sense here. Unless it's completely different architecture and they have to learn to develop in a different way.
True, there's usually some context as to why Game Freak is late for new hardware.

Gen 4: It was delayed, as they were still trying to figure out the DS architecture.

Gen 6: Mostly a consequence of Gen 5 also being delayed.

Gen 8: TPCi were concerned about the Switch's success, with Let's Go Pikachu and Eevee being test runs of sorts.

I expect Gen 10 to also be late, but for different reasons. I expect the next Legends game to be a Redrakted NG exclusive for Holiday 2025 and I expect the year going into the Holiday to be supplemented by remakes of Black 2 and White 2 (super copium, I know). Plus, 2026 will be the franchise's 30th anniversary.
 
S/V DLC is out in Fall and Early Next year. They are announcing new Gen 5 related games in this presents (Riddler Khu has been talking about it for a while, most reliable leaker of all time, also the most annoying). Those games would probably release in Holiday 2024 because logic. Switch 2 is releasing H2 next year. If they are announcing the games now they would be on switch. If they come out Holiday 2024 they would probably push them for Switch 2. My conclusion = cross gen
I don't disagree that something Gen 5 is likely coming, but unless Khu specifically said they'll be revealed in this Presents, I wouldn't consider it promised or certain we'd get an announcement in this presentation. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd be surprised if we got some kind of Gen 5 remake or Legends-esque announcement more than a year before launch, so if the game is announced now, I'd expect it within the first half of next year. For that reason, I'm not really expecting any possible Switch 2 games in the presentation unless they get later ports/re-releases/patches for the new console.
 
I don't disagree that something Gen 5 is likely coming, but unless Khu specifically said they'll be revealed in this Presents, I wouldn't consider it promised or certain we'd get an announcement in this presentation. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd be surprised if we got some kind of Gen 5 remake or Legends-esque announcement more than a year before launch, so if the game is announced now, I'd expect it within the first half of next year. For that reason, I'm not really expecting any possible Switch 2 games in the presentation unless they get later ports/re-releases/patches for the new console.
Wait what did this khu person say is being announced in this presents?
 
True, there's usually some context as to why Game Freak is late for new hardware.

Gen 4: It was delayed, as they were still trying to figure out the DS architecture.

Gen 6: Mostly a consequence of Gen 5 also being delayed.

Gen 8: TPCi were concerned about the Switch's success, with Let's Go Pikachu and Eevee being test runs of sorts.

I expect Gen 10 to also be late, but for different reasons. I expect the next Legends game to be a Redrakted NG exclusive for Holiday 2025 and I expect the year going into the Holiday to be supplemented by remakes of Black 2 and White 2 (super copium, I know). Plus, 2026 will be the franchise's 30th anniversary.
Would love a Legends sequel, not a big fan of the Let's Go, but Johto is my favorite region so I'd bite on that.

Btw, wasn't their reason for being late to getting their engine up and running/updated on Switch the fact that they weren't sure if it would be successful, or am I misremembering that?
 
Praying to God that the Gen 5 remakes are HD-2D. That sprite work is the pinnacle of the series.

Also, I'm pretty sure Khu has gotten things wrong before.
His major strength is that what he says needs to be interpreted, so difficult to say when he s wrong. But in every case I can remember the clues he gave were confirmed in a form or another.

For this presents, I haven't seen him give a clue gen 5 is coming (but I can be wrong, gen 5 is everywhere in his tweets. Would wait for confirmation from Centro leaks on that).
People seem to say gen5 would be for nov-dec 2024, but I don't recall gamefreak announcing any sort of game more than a year ahead. The games are usually announced early in the year and released at the end. Now this presents will be 35 minutes long, maybe they would announce something for Q124? Think they were pleasantly surprised with how much legends sold. If they can release 3 games selling each at least 15 mln units every 2 years, better than the pace they had last decade which was 1 game per year I guess.
 
Cross gen in this case meaning - sure you can play this exactly the same way on Switch 2. And even if that's not the case, there's no way in hell it will be acknowledged or even hinted at in 4 days. I'd be shocked if there are "too good for Switch" takes that aren't jokes, but I am sure someone will suggest it anyway.
Isn’t the second part more battle focused and the first part is story focused?

The jump from gba, ds, 3ds, switch is different from switch to switch 2, at least in my head. I don't think the LTTP approach really makes as much sense here. Unless it's completely different architecture and they have to learn to develop in a different way.

It’s a pretty different type of scope, and GameFreak will need to better, how should I put it? Understand the new hardware enough? In any case they’re late to the party but it’s also because they have the previous game take advantage of the new hardware or be useful to the new hardware in some form. Like how Pokémon black and white gave you a feature on the 3DS or how you can transfer from the game boy advance to the DS through the park on the GEN 4 games, or how you could insert the pack and find other Pokémon in the wild like Gengar in platinum with the LG cart(?).


I don’t remember what was the benefit that generation 7 got from the generation 6 games, but I wouldn’t discount to the possibility of there being a bonus of sort that the new hardware takes advantage of and it is based on Scarlet and Violet.

Praying to God that the Gen 5 remakes are HD-2D. That sprite work is the pinnacle of the series.

Also, I'm pretty sure Khu has gotten things wrong before.
I beg for that too, GF plis….
Your passive-aggressive response is more of a concern than anything in that post.

Anyway, moving on.
Beloved, I simply reciprocate the love I am given, I am nice to those who want me to be nice to them, no hard feelings ❤️
 
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/s/uke8194tracc1mj/macronix_sgvc_3d_nand_lue2017.pdf

The specs they listed include the "CMOS peripheral" specific to the test chip they manufactured, so not the interface of a Switch game card.


They're not just NAND. We don't know exactly what Macronix is doing to create the "ROM type" NAND that meets Nintendo's read durability and lifespan needs, but even beyond that, the game cards have proprietary communication and cryptography that needs to be established, and all of that is built into the chip. The packaging of the NAND-based 8 GB+ chips is such that even the connectors you can see on the back on the game cards are just sticking out of the back of the Macronix chip; there's no separate PCB like the XtraROM chips (i.e. the whole thing is what Nintendo needs, not just an off-the-shelf NAND chip anyone could program). I doubt this inefficiency you're imagining really exists.
Pretty sure Nintendo would need to know that communication and cryptography stuff to be able to have the cards interface with the hardware they designed.
Also, the PCB chips aren’t all manufactured by Macronix.

And it just leaves further questions all around. if XtraROM tech isn’t limiting the size of these chips, why has it been so difficult to get a 64GB at a decent cost? Knowing the size of the package in a Switch Game Card, knowing it uses a form of planar NAND and knowing that this DRM verification part of the ASIC could not possibly take that much of the size of the enclosed ASIC package, why is said ASIC package SO HUGE compared to planar NAND? For example, the 64GB eMMC chip in SWOLED is double the capacity at the same size as the NAND chip (which is a touch smaller than the Game Card ASIC package, I might add) in standard Switch and managed that without being exorbitantly more in cost, yet Macronix can’t deliver a 64GB Game Card they’ve been promising to Nintendo for 5 years now at a decent price with no evidence of a cost reduction on fabricating existing sizes?

Someone needs to make this add up. Because it doesn’t. At all.
 
Quoted by: LiC
1
Pokemon is traditionally LTTP when it comes to new consoles, so I wouldn't expect a new title in the first year of the console.
I could see a cross-gen title, but built for the Switch, come out next year. Not a new gen since I'm not expecting one until the 30th anniversary, but maybe something related to Unova.
 
Thoughts?



Obviously nothing conclusive can be taken from this, but the fact that we now know next gen development kits have gone out in the past month or two and Next Level games happens to be in Vancouver, it is very plausible that this relates to SNG. When developer is primarily a Nintendo developer, they often times need to bring in some new talent that has experience in developing for more advanced hardware and because teams will need to grow a bit to handle the increased loads associated with higher fidelity games. Going from Switch to SNG will be a significant jump in terms of both raw performance and architectural advancements that allow for techniques not supported on Switch.

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Yet another comment that suggest BC is a foregone conclusion. The fact that Andy Robinson said that one contact had told him that BC wasnt a feature when some others had told him that it was going to be included tells me that not all developers are getting briefed in the same way. The BC compatibility layer will make it so that games just work, with no work required from developers. So assuming this is correct, if a developer were to assume that because their dev kit doesn't have anything pertaining to BC, then the hardware must no support it, but the reality is that its not something needed in a dev kit because this is a system OS feature and not anything the developer would need to worry about. So when you look at Furukawa talking about the importance of not having a hard reset at the start of a new generation, its only logical to conclude that it will indeed be a supported feature.
 
which Nintendo franchises should be the launch title of Nintendo Switch sucessor?(i betting on 3D Mario)

The only game that makes sense to be a Switch 2 launch title at this point is a brand new 3D Mario. Maybe Metroid Prime 4 will be cross-gen. New Mario Kart won’t come til a year after at least. Other than that, I would like to see either a Nintendo Switch Sports Resort since the previous game was seriously lacking in content and maybe a Switch Party game similar to Wii Party.
 
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(I am trying to nudge you, the reader, in the direction of wondering, if there is a PS5 Pro as rumored, what would it try to accomplish, and what is the path to get there?)
I’m increasingly convinced that the goal of the PS 5 Pro is to lay the groundwork for the PS6.

The PS4 Pro design was, essentially, two PS4 GPUs, side by side “like the wings of a butterfly” paired with new hardware for checkerboarding. The more I think about it, the more impressed I am by the PS4 Pro.

In order to use checkerboarding, they need to exactly double the resolution of 1080p games. There are multiple ways they could have doubled the performance of the PS4, but by exactly doubling the GPU they guaranteed there was no corner case where they wouldn't get 2x more perf - double the ROPs, double the TMUs, double the queues, everything. And by building it this way they also made it trivial to put the GPU in a "base PS4" state for compatibility with base games.

The PS5, then, uses the PS4 Pro GPU layout, and then updates it with higher clocks. PS4 and PS4 Pro games have trivial backcompat in almost all details, while new clocks and features offer a real 'next gen' upgrade over even the Pro.

One of the nice things about the PS4 Pro from Sony's perspective is how many PS4 games looked great on PS5. By making 4k patches very easy to add, and by encouraging developers to include it at launch, Sony basically guaranteed that the last couple years of the PS4 library was enhanced for PS5 before the PS5 was announced. That's part of why cross-gen was so good to Sony, even as they tried to avoid it.

The leaked PS5 Pro specs seem to drop the "butterfly" design, with 60 CUs instead of 72. Either Sony is confident that it can achieve BC some other way, or they've got more complex method of getting the GPU into a "previous PlayStation" state. Meanwhile, AMD has to be longing to drop GCN compatibility from their architecture, if not RDNA 1 - the likely base of PS6 is RDNA 5. And Sony has to be looking at the landscape and not be 100% sure what the "next" frontier will be. 120Hz? 8k? RT? AI? PS6 development is likely about to start up properly. If the console is launching in 2028, then APU design probably needs to be finalized in 2026.

Looking at all of this and I think the strategy looks something like this - the PS4 GPU has been the basis of 3 consoles now, but CU doubling won't scale forever. More BC hardware will need to be dropped going forward, it's time to start laying that ground work now. Sony is going to shove as much power as they can cost effectively get into this thing, and bet that a 6800's worth of performance will give the PS5 Pro longevity against whatever gamers start demanding in the next 4-5 years. And that they can sell enough to create as many games "enhanced" for PS5 Pro that they'll be able to replicate the smooth transition they got by accident last time.

Which, to bring it back around to your initial discussions of memory technologies - I don't think Sony needs to create a well balanced console. The PS4 Pro hugely increased GPU perf, but barely touched the rest of the system. Especially if the goal is something like 8K instead of ultra high frame rates.
 
a new IP for launch is an easy bet, I think. it's among the best times to attempt to spin up a new IP

I am down for a new IP, I thought ARMS was one of the better launch games in Nintendo's history of complementary launch titles.

Does anyone else want an ARMS2? lol.

You just can’t beat a new intellectual property coming out on a new SKU especially when it’s a sandbox game and a GOTY edition at that.
 
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Developers trying to get Series S launch requirement dropped. The console's limited amount of RAM is already proving to be a frustrating issue for developers, and we're not even halfway through this console generation.

Hope Nintendo is taking notes. Go big with 16 GB or go home.
 
Pretty sure Nintendo would need to know that communication and cryptography stuff to be able to have the cards interface with the hardware they designed.
Also, the PCB chips aren’t all manufactured by Macronix.

And it just leaves further questions all around. if XtraROM tech isn’t limiting the size of these chips, why has it been so difficult to get a 64GB at a decent cost? Knowing the size of the package in a Switch Game Card, knowing it uses a form of planar NAND and knowing that this DRM verification part of the ASIC could not possibly take that much of the size of the enclosed ASIC package, why is said ASIC package SO HUGE compared to planar NAND? For example, the 64GB eMMC chip in SWOLED is double the capacity at the same size as the NAND chip (which is a touch smaller than the Game Card ASIC package, I might add) in standard Switch and managed that without being exorbitantly more in cost, yet Macronix can’t deliver a 64GB Game Card they’ve been promising to Nintendo for 5 years now at a decent price with no evidence of a cost reduction on fabricating existing sizes?

Someone needs to make this add up. Because it doesn’t. At all.
I'm not sure what you mean by "Nintendo would need to know it." Nintendo doesn't own any fabrication lines. They need the chips to be created for them with all the components and pre-programming done, which as I mentioned goes well beyond the scope of just flashing an image onto some NAND (and even for that, we have zero confirmation it's something Nintendo even could do with these particular "ROM type" NAND-based chips).

My personal opinion on 64 GB game cards is that Nintendo had no incentive at all to produce them. The idea that they wanted them, but Macronix failed to deliver, is just a rumor/narrative as far as I can see. Nintendo could barely get any publishers to use 32 GB game cards due to cost, and 64 GB would be more expensive and less adopted, and Nintendo themselves don't make any games that remotely need it.
 

Developers trying to get Series S launch requirement dropped. The console's limited amount of RAM is already proving to be a frustrating issue for developers, and we're not even halfway through this console generation.

Hope Nintendo is taking notes. Go big with 16 GB or go home.

The Switch has 4GB of RAM and they’ve sold 130m units. They ain’t going home for anyone.
 

Developers trying to get Series S launch requirement dropped. The console's limited amount of RAM is already proving to be a frustrating issue for developers, and we're not even halfway through this console generation.

Hope Nintendo is taking notes. Go big with 16 GB or go home.
This is one game built for a system that's already going to be a generation ahead of the Switch 2. It won't matter anyways.
 

Developers trying to get Series S launch requirement dropped. The console's limited amount of RAM is already proving to be a frustrating issue for developers, and we're not even halfway through this console generation.

Hope Nintendo is taking notes. Go big with 16 GB or go home.
They won't go for 16 GB and this is a safe lock
 
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When you look at third party titles like Doom, Doom Eternal, and the Witcher 3, are these publishers going to want to offer free upgrades for these games that while impressive relative to the Switch hardware, were significantly compromised in order to make the transition? Or are they more likely to offer release these games as NSG games with PS4/Pro levels visuals? My guess is that this is indeed what most of them will do. You will be able to continue to redownload the Switch build of these games, but only the newer build will be available for sale going forward. This happens even on Steam where a publisher will delist the original version of a game and then put out the newer remastered version of the game for a higher price. If the original game is in your Steam library, you can still redownload it, but can no longer purchase the older and more often than not cheaper build of the game.
 
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