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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Hosermess said:
Last year it took 3 days (Tues earnings release - Fri Q&A): https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/news/index.html?year=2023
2021 it was the day after (Thu-Fri): https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/news/index.html?year=2022
2020 it was 8 days after (Thu-next Friday: Covid): https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/news/index.html?year=2021
2019 it was a couple weeks after (Apr 25 - May 8th: Golden Week was from April 27 to May 6): https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/news/index.html?year=2020
2018 it was a week after (Thu-Wed): https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/news/index.html?year=2019
2017 it was the next week (Thu-Mon): https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/news/index.html?year=2018
2016 it was the next week (Thu-Mon): https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/news/index.html?year=2017
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inserte meme sipping Clorox

Superstarxalien said:
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Uuugghh… it’s in Japaneeese… Dx

carbonaxiom said:
Looks like parsing through a DeepL translation will be rough from the quick look I had just now, but Furukawa's answer to Question 2 about the longer life cycle of the Switch contains the now infamous words:
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ENTERING? Still?????? Could it be a translation error?
 
carbonaxiom said:
Looks like parsing through a DeepL translation will be rough from the quick look I had just now, but Furukawa's answer to Question 2 about the longer life cycle of the Switch contains the now infamous words:
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Oh for fucks sake
 
ziggyrivers said:
I don’t get why people think the Switch’s successor won’t be backwards compatible with its predecessor. Nintendo has always offered BC between generations. The only time this didn’t happen was the Wii U > Switch transition for obvious reasons. The only thing that should be up to debate is whether or not the Drake will upres previous gen titles, and whether or not it’ll be done natively by the console or via patches.
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Tentacle-tropes said:
BC is absolutely at the forefront of their minds. It has been something they have been talking about for at least five years along, just not explicitly using the term BC, with NSO. It would also be very difficult to get people reinvested into the platform without BC in today’s marketplace.
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Them wanting the Nintendo Account system to carry over to future consoles might also be a part of this.
 
ziggyrivers said:
ENTERING? Still?????? Could it be a translation error?
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It could very well be a translation error. Machine translations often have a rough time with the more nuanced language used in these Q & A sessions. We might have to wait for the official translation, which should happen within a day or two.
 
BowserIsMyFather said:
At least it's not a Super Metal Dave/PlayerEssence NX type scenario for him I suppose, but I'd be interested to see other takes on the whole T239 scenario. Has anyone here convincingly refuted/rebuffed the belief that T239 would face difficulties in BC?
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Plenty. Are there hurdles? Yes, console bc is never trivial.

But there is zero reason to think Nvidia can't overcome those hurdles.
 
Superstarxalien said:
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From what I can tell, judging by an iffy Google translate skim of it, the only definite thing stated is: "At this time, there are no plans to reduce the price of hardware in the current fiscal year"

And along with "uncharted territory", they played a couple more greatest hits:

"I don't think It's not the right time to talk specifically about next-generation consoles, but in order to provide new and unique entertainment, we are always thinking about what kind of interesting proposals we can make in the future."

and

"Our top priority is to steadily maintain and expand the operation of Nintendo Switch and maintain business momentum."

Most interesting part was the last question and answer. But it's nothing that hasn't been discussed here ad nauseum before (NX announcement timing to Switch release). It should at least put that argument to bed, one can hope lol.
 
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So the Phawk did benchmarks comparisons between Van Gogh, the AMD Ryzen 6800U, and the AMD Ryzen 7840U.


And basically, Van Gogh outperforms the AMD Ryzen 6800U and the AMD Ryzen 7840U at TDPs ≤11 W. And the AMD Ryzen 6800U and the AMD Ryzen 7840U outperforms Van Gogh at TDPs >11 W.

So assuming the AMD Z1 Extreme is based on the AMD Ryzen 7840U, then the AMD Z1 Extreme doesn't seem like the best choice for hybrid consoles running on an OS that's not Microsoft Windows, at least to me.
 
Hosermess said:
From what I can tell, judging by an iffy Google translate skim of it, the only definite thing stated is: "At this time, there are no plans to reduce the price of hardware in the current fiscal year"

And along with "uncharted territory", the played a couple more greatest hits:

"I don't think It's not the right time to talk specifically about next-generation consoles, but in order to provide new and unique entertainment, we are always thinking about what kind of interesting proposals we can make in the future."

and

"Our top priority is to steadily maintain and expand the operation of Nintendo Switch and maintain business momentum."
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At least (so far), it isn't "We have nothing planned for the foreseeable future" or any variation of that phrase.
 
Hosermess said:
Was hoping somebody would post this. There are a few other interesting replies in the discussion but nothing too juicy. The overall thing I take away from it is that analysts are doing the same guessing we are, they just get paid for it.
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They’re probably (unofficially) sourcing from us as well
 
Superstarxalien said:
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Lots of questions on the Mario Bros Movie, unsurprisingly. Outside of that, here are a couple of the more interesting ones via DeepL translation. As per usual, don't get too hung up on the wording output by machine translation, they'll have an official English translation in a couple of days.

Q4. The number of users playing Nintendo Switch per year has been increasing even in the seventh year since its launch. If a next-generation console is released in the future, do you envision a dramatic increase in the number of annual playing users, or do you envision maintaining the number of users at least above 100 million?

A4. Furukawa: The growth in the number of users per year has slowed compared to 3-4 years ago, and we believe that we are now at a stage where our priority is to maintain high utilization rates and to attract new users.
We believe that we are now at a stage where we will place priority on maintaining high utilization rates and also aim to attract new users. We will continue to release software titles, as the availability of game consoles tends to be affected by the timing of major title releases. We also believe that we need to continue to provide opportunities for customers to play Nintendo Switch, rather than relying solely on new software releases.
We do not believe that there is no need to launch a next-generation console because we have secured a certain number of users who play the console every year. Although it is not the right time to talk about specifics regarding next-generation consoles, we are always thinking about what interesting proposals we can make in order to provide new and unique entertainment, and we are developing a variety of products for the future.
When we launch new hardware in the future, the number of users who play games per year will largely depend on the number of hardware units in use. In light of this, I think it will be a very important issue for us to maintain the number of customers who play Nintendo's game consoles at a high level and how we can shift to the next hardware. At this stage, however, we believe that our top priority is to maintain and expand the operation of Nintendo Switch, which has been on sale for seven years, and to maintain the momentum of the business.
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Q7. Nintendo Switch was announced in March 2015 as (development code name) NX, and was released in March 2017 after the official name was announced in October 2016. Is this a success in terms of Hardware's marketing efforts? Do you think it is necessary to wait a similar period of time between the announcement and launch of the next generation of consoles?

A7. Furukawa: I would like to take a moment to look back on the information we sent out leading up to the Nintendo Switch launch.
Looking back on the information we provided until the launch of Nintendo Switch, the announcement of the development code name NX in March 2015 was the first time we announced a business and capital alliance with DeNA Co.
The announcement of NX was made at the "Joint Press Conference on Business and Capital Alliance (for joint development and operation of game applications for smart devices and development of the core system for Nintendo Account)" with DeNA Co. At the time, in announcing our entry into the mobile business, we needed to let many people know that Nintendo would continue to be firmly committed to the dedicated game console business as our core business. Therefore, the timing of the announcement of the Nintendo Switch was a somewhat special case of information dissemination.
We will continue to disseminate information not only on hardware but also on software with appropriate timing for each product to ensure that information reaches a wide range of customers.
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Furukawa confirming that the Switch's early initial announcement was a special case, and we shouldn't expect the same for the next hardware.
 
BowserIsMyFather said:
At least it's not a Super Metal Dave/PlayerEssence NX type scenario for him I suppose, but I'd be interested to see other takes on the whole T239 scenario. Has anyone here convincingly refuted/rebuffed the belief that T239 would face difficulties in BC?
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It's been discussed on and off for the duration of the thread. He's not wrong that there would be hurdles, but there's no reason to think they'd be insurmountable.
 
Holiday 2024 but getting best nm scenario, 16 Gb RAM, hall effect joysticks, OLED, >ufs 2.0?...

I wouldnt mind that much, but I don't think it will happen, we will have something from August 2022 in 2024.
 
pelusilla6 said:
Holiday 2024 but getting best nm scenario, 16 Gb RAM, hall effect joysticks, OLED, >ufs 2.0?...

I wouldnt mind that much, but I don't think it will happen, we will have something from August 2022 in 2024.
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Assuming Drake's still being used, depends on what Nintendo and Nvidia decide to use process node wise when probably taping out around 1H 2022 (here and here).
 
carbonaxiom said:
Looks like parsing through a DeepL translation will be rough from the quick look I had just now, but Furukawa's answer to Question 2 about the longer life cycle of the Switch contains the now infamous words:
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Man, if the process of ENTERING uncharted territory is taking this long, I'm scared to see how long the uncharted territory itself will last
 
TomNookYankees said:
Gee I wonder who MVG knows that might have tipped them off to Drake SoC possibly being scrapped......
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Where does this narrative about Drake being scrapped come from? Is it to do with the Nate/DF speculations at the beginning of the year about plans being changed, or is there another rumour or leak that I've missed?
 
BowserIsMyFather said:
At least it's not a Super Metal Dave/PlayerEssence NX type scenario for him I suppose, but I'd be interested to see other takes on the whole T239 scenario. Has anyone here convincingly refuted/rebuffed the belief that T239 would face difficulties in BC?
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MVG himself even mentions in his video three ways how it could be done:

  • Make the switch 2 more of bumped up switch (switch pro). Least likely IMO.
  • Include the Tegra X1 chip in addition to (or as a part of) the Switch 2's SoC, this is similar to what nintendo has done with the Gameboy Advance, Nintendo DS, and Nintendo 3DS. Possible but would increase power consumption and take up more hardware real estate (meaning less room/power for other stuff).
  • Emulation, the one that MVG's only argument against was that only hardware at least as powerful as the Steam Deck could do this, but assuming the Switch 2 is around that performance it should be fairly easy for NVidia/Nintendo. Most Likely IMO.
 
TSR3 said:
Where does this narrative about Drake being scrapped come from? Is it to do with the Nate/DF speculations at the beginning of the year about plans being changed, or is there another rumour or leak that I've missed?
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I think it comes from the rumor of the switch revision being canceled.
 
TomNookYankees said:
MVG himself even mentions in his video three ways how it could be done:

  • Make the switch 2 more of bumped up switch (switch pro). Least likely IMO.
  • Include the Tegra X1 chip in addition to (or as a part of) the Switch 2's SoC, this is similar to what nintendo has done with the Gameboy Advance, Nintendo DS, and Nintendo 3DS. Possible but would increase power consumption and take up more hardware real estate (meaning less room/power for other stuff).
  • Emulation, the one that MVG's only argument against was that only hardware at least as powerful as the Steam Deck could do this, but assuming the Switch 2 is around that performance it should be fairly easy for NVidia/Nintendo. Most Likely IMO.
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In his original podcast with Nate, MVG mentioned a fourth option - including the Maxwell GPU (rather than the whole Tegra X1 SoC) in the new SoC. This could make sense as the BC issues are mostly to do with driver compatibilty
 
TSR3 said:
In his original podcast with Nate, MVG mentioned a fourth option - including the Maxwell GPU (rather than the whole Tegra X1 SoC) in the new SoC. This could make sense as the BC issues are mostly to do with driver compatibilty
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I think this is very unlikely.

The likely solution imo is a mixture of software and hardware emulation.

Modifications to Drakes version of Ampere (remember it's a fully custom soc) to accommodate for Maxwell BC and accelerate their software solution.
 
Hermii said:
It's the Nate/DF thing. Which somehow morphed into fears of Drake being cancelled.
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Thanks for confirming. I was pretty skeptical of the Nate/DF speculations at the time, I guess I didn't imagine others would pick up the other end of the stick and run off a cliff with it. Dunno why, I'm normally more cynical than that! :D
 
I await the Official Translation, but it's interesting that Uncharted Territory is used in the context of "Switch is more successful than any prior Nintendo console this late in its lifespan."

The implication being not "we don't know what happens next" but "we have unique opportunities to take advantage of." That and the responses to the active users question scream "cross-gen" to me.
 
oldpuck said:
I await the Official Translation, but it's interesting that Uncharted Territory is used in the context of "Switch is more successful than any prior Nintendo console this late in its lifespan."

The implication being not "we don't know what happens next" but "we have unique opportunities to take advantage of." That and the responses to the active users question scream "cross-gen" to me.
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Hey, as long as they're officially doing it, they can scream "CROOOOOOSSSS GEEEEEEEEN" into my face 24/7.
 
majimazio said:
After all, the likelihood that both announcement and launch will be in 2024 has increased.
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Well, the only thing he's explicitly saying there is that it's not going to be announced two years before launch (although I believe at the time they initially announced the NX, it was planned to launch at the end of 2016, so maybe a year and a half).

I do find it interesting that, although asked about hardware announcement strategies, he also included software announcements in his answer, saying "We will continue to disseminate information not only on hardware but also on software with appropriate timing for each product to ensure that information reaches a wide range of customers."

I think it's a good time to update my table of how many unreleased Nintendo-published Switch games have been announced at any given time:

Code: 
        Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug    Sep    Oct    Nov    Dec
2017           12     12     10     9      9      14     13     13     13     12     10
2018    12     18     16     17     15     17     18     16     16     16     15     13
2019    11     10     13     14     13     13     12     11     10     13     11     10
2020    10     10     10     9      9      9      9      8      9      13     12     11
2021    10     8      15     15     14     12     14     13     13     14     12     10
2022    9      8      14     12     11     11     9      7      7      9      7      6
2023    7      6      5      4      3

The number is going to drop to 2 in two days time. Nintendo has significantly shortened the time between announcement and release of software over the past year or so. For software announced in 2019, the average time to release was 306 days. For software announced last year, it was 163 days. This year is almost certainly going to be less (it's currently zero days, as the only first party game they've announced was shadow-dropped the same day).

I'm most likely reading too much into it, but I think it's interesting that when asked about hardware announcement strategies, he talked about appropriate timing of both hardware and software reveals, given how short a reveal to release cycle Nintendo's software has these days.
 
Dizzle said:
What do folks think about cross gen period? There were some good arguments for an extended cross gen period, like looking at what the competition has done and the statement about 10 years of support for Switch.

But as the release date for the succ slips farther away (even if it still somehow is late 2023), and the Switch's lifespan grows longer, do you think a cross gen period is less likely? It feels that way to me, but it's just vibes. I don't know.
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Separate to any BC, I think the cross gen period will be limited. Maybe just to games released between announcement and actual launch of [REDACTED], possibly for the 'launch window' as well. After then I think all tentpole games will be [REDACTED], with B list games (remakes, follow ups to 3DS franchises etc) still being Switch targeted for a year or so after.

That's for 1st/2nd party games. I'd expect 3rd parties to all target [REDACTED] except for Indies. The OG Switch could remain the Indy machine until after it stops production.
 
jaycie said:
Man, if the process of ENTERING uncharted territory is taking this long, I'm scared to see how long the uncharted territory itself will last
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I think that, in this case, uncharted territory is about expanding as much as possible to have a big enough user base to float to a new platform because it’s a large enough to allow for it.

So:

Expand> support both> dwindle support of older and increase support of newer> new support only> legacy put to rest


After all, PS2 to PS3 and DS to 3DS, despite the PS3 and 3DS initially doing pretty badly they sold near 90M and near 80M units respectively partly to do with having a super huge install base (>150M)

Though with PS2, it might have helped the PS4 more considering it was retired the year before it released 😛



Otherwise, it would take moving heaven and earth for them to have something like the OG XBox (The Duke) to the XBox 360 which was a huge increase.



Being huge has its perks as a safety net when you think about it in that perspective.
 
BowserIsMyFather said:
At least it's not a Super Metal Dave/PlayerEssence NX type scenario for him I suppose, but I'd be interested to see other takes on the whole T239 scenario. Has anyone here convincingly refuted/rebuffed the belief that T239 would face difficulties in BC?
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See the conversation that was started on this topic with post #37840, and more specifically the following replies :

oldpuck said:
I'm gonna give you the long ass answer to your question, as Dakhil already gave you the concise (correct) one.


The shader situation is well understood, and the Lapsus$ hack heavily suggests that they are both right about the shader situation.


This would be a book. Seriously, this is a get your PhD in compsci level question. Those systems use multiple BC technologies. But the one you probably care about is how are they compatible with PS4 shaders, and the answer is that they didn't break backwards compatibility when they designed the newer GPUs. They kept the hardware from the PS4 era to execute old shader instructions that modern games don't need anymore.


Rosetta 2 is a binary translator which monkey patches API calls. Here are two key points when talking about PC backwards compat:

PC apps never talk to the GPU directly, console games do. If PCs let random apps touch the GPU not only would you be infected with viruses that take over your screen, every random app could cause the entire system to crash. Minimize a calculator window and forget about it? Well, if it crashes your whole system reboots! Consoles are a different world, so console games get raw hardware access, for extra performance

This is why Rosetta 2 doesn't have to emulate a GPU at all.

PC games don't have precompiled shaders, console games do: When you change a tiny detail about a graphics card, you have to recompile your shaders. There is no way for PC games to do this for every combination that already exists, and even if they did, they wouldn't support new hardware. So PC games don't ship precompiled shaders, they ship the raw shader code, and your PC compiles it when it needs it.

Consoles are a single target, so it is feasible to ship precompiled shaders. This has big performance benefits. If you've heard of #stutterstruggle this is what they're talking about, and why consoles don't have it. But it is also why console games don't "just work" without changes on different GPUs



Rosetta runs on the CPU. It reads the code from an old program, dynamically retranslating as it goes, and then feeds the retranslated instructions back out to the CPU. In essence, the CPU doesn't even see the emulated program, it only sees Rosetta. Meanwhile, Rosetta only has to read tiny chunks of the emulated program at a time, very quickly recompile it, and send it on in tiny, fast bursts. Lots of CPU code is repetitive, going around in loops, so many times, Rosetta doesn't even have to do anything, because it has already recompiled the code.

GPUs don't work that way. There is no way to run something like Rosetta on the GPU, and even if it could, it wouldn't matter, because the game runs on the CPU. Shaders are GPU programs that get squirted over to the GPU in individul blobs, and are usually run immediately.

The way a Rosetta for Shaders would work, is it would run on the CPU, load up games into a kind of container where the game couldn't directly access the GPU. It would then intercept shaders, recompile them for the new architecture, and then squirt them over to the GPU itself.

This could work, emulators do it all the time. But it would introduce #stutterstruggle to the console games. Emulators try to work around this stutter, but they are 1) not completely successful and 2) it requires huge computing resources that Drake won't have.



Sorta? But it doesn't matter much, only the shaders are a tricky problem.


No, but again, only the shaders are tricky.

Console talk directly to the GPU. That means that each game basically builds in its own driver. Drivers need to know stuff like where physically on the chip parts of the GPU are, or exactly how many of component X or Y are, or the magic value of Q that only works on that chip.

Fortunately, even if every single one of these is different between TX1 and Drake, you don't need a complex emulator, you just need a remapper. If a Switch game wants to send command 0x800DBA14 to interrupt 0xD01E2A3D then all that drake has to do is catch it, and then look up those locations.

"Hmm, command 0x800DBA14 on TX1 is 'add' and interrupt 0xD01E2A3D is the first SM. My first SM is at 0xD02E3A0D, and my add command is 0x800DBA11. Let me just substitute one for the other it will Just Work"

Ampere and Maxwell are similar enough for this sort of technique to work. Driver emulation is simple and fast.

It's the shaders that are tricky, for the reasons I talked about before. Shaders are complicated, they're basically whole programs. Ampere might add an instruction that does what took 5 instructions before, while deleting 4 of those old useless instructions, which might take 2 new instructions to fake. Doing that translation is complex and slow.


You can't really partially emulate anything the way you mean, but you can essentially "pass through" the parts the are identical. Your emulator always has to sit in the middle of the whole thing, and you pay a performance cost for that. But when two systems are very very similar, your emulator only has to work hard at the differences.

But again, Shader recompilation isn't emulation in that way. That is why it is tricky


SM3DAS could do all these recompilation steps in advance, on a developer's powerful workstation. Drake has to do it in real time, using nothing but a fancy tablet.

SM3DAS's team had access to the raw source code of the original games, and could patch it if they wanted. Drake has to work with on every Switch game without every seeing the source code, and without ever changing it.

SM3DAS only had to work with 3 games, and doesn't have to emulate any features those games didn't use. Drake has to emulate every bit of the Switch hardware that any game uses.

SM3DAS's emulation only needed to reach the speed of the Wii, to run a 16 year old game. SM3DAS's emulation needs to reach the power of the Switch, to run games that haven't released yet.
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oldpuck said:
I'm interested in it technically because 1) I just think it's neat and 2) what it implies about the performance of Drake. But I agree with LiC, no reason to believe there won't be BC, and this weird meme that Nintendo screwed up the Switch and BC isn't possible just doesn't hold up. These are the same problems that BC has had to solve since the beginning of consumer computing. That Nintendo is having to deal with it now is mostly a historical issue. The PS6 is, mostly likely, going to face this same issue.

There is a simple, 3 part solution that solves 99% of the problems pretty easily.

1) Nintendo puts a Maxwell transpiler into Drake. This works for every game, forever, with no patch from the internet. It does potentially introduce some minor stutter into games. However, because transpiling code is much much faster than recompiling code in the first place, it's not like PC stutter struggle at all.

2) Nintendo updates their SDK. Even if you're developing a base Switch game after Drake launches, Nintendo's updated SDK generates the Drake shaders for you and packages them along. The transpiler sees those shaders and just replaces the TX1 shaders with the ones the SDK generated in flight. This eliminates the stutter for new games, or any game patched with the new SDK.

3) Nintendo forces an intern to play the 100 most popular eShop games. While the intern plays the most popular eShop games on Drake, the transpiler runs and generates converted shaders. Nintendo then takes those out, and packages them up as updates.

This is a simple solution that doesn't require complex engineering, a huge investment of effort, would work basically on every game, out of the box, without an internet connection. Most games you care about would work with 0 hitches at launch, and any further performance issues discovered after the fact are quickly resolved.

This is like the lo-fi version of the MS patch solution, but it's much simpler because Drake is much more like TX1 than anything was like the Cell. It's similar to what Valve is likely to do with the steam deck, but again, much simpler because they don't have to support the whole breadth of PC gaming.

This is a very solvable problem.
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It's good that we already have 2 of the 7 questions being related to new hardware. Gonna assume investors will put the pressure on at the annual meeting in June. By then we might have more leaks too xd
 
jaycie said:
Man, if the process of ENTERING uncharted territory is taking this long, I'm scared to see how long the uncharted territory itself will last
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When they first said the phrase "uncharted territory" back in February, they were referring to the 7th year of sales for the Switch which began the following month in March. They actually used the phrase twice, both times in reference to the 7th year of sales. As they are currently 2+ months into their 7th year of sales, they have definitely entered uncharted territory.

And for whatever it's worth, Google translate has it as "we believe that we have entered uncharted territory."
 
Smash Kirby said:
MVG is more sold on a reclocked X1 still and is shaky on whether or not Drake is a thing for Nintendo specifically.
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Anyone who knows what MVG knows and claims there's any doubt that a chip strongly associated with a new version of NVN is associated with Nintendo is just being contrarian.
 
carbonaxiom said:
Click on the insert image icon at the top of the comment box and paste this specific link there: https://i.ibb.co/6WfH64R/ED419-CA8-6-B0-A-4-DC1-B144-A18-B54-A4-FA03.jpg
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ED419-CA8-6-B0-A-4-DC1-B144-A18-B54-A4-FA03.jpg
 
What if the new hardware is named the Nintendo Uncharted Territory?

We’re playing checkers. Furukawa is playing chess.

Seriously though, I like that there’s going to be a smaller turnaround from reveal to launch. I do think they should still give us that vague NX type tweet but it is what it is.
 
EdFiftyNine said:
What if the new hardware is named the Nintendo Uncharted Territory?

We’re playing checkers. Furukawa is playing chess.

Seriously though, I like that there’s going to be a smaller turnaround from reveal to launch. I do think they should still give us that vague NX type tweet but it is what it is.
Click to expand...


We'll probably still get something like this, just none of the stuff before that point.
 
BowserIsMyFather said:
At least it's not a Super Metal Dave/PlayerEssence NX type scenario for him I suppose, but I'd be interested to see other takes on the whole T239 scenario. Has anyone here convincingly refuted/rebuffed the belief that T239 would face difficulties in BC?
Click to expand...
BC is never an easy problem, literally every system faces difficulties. It's just how high the hill is and how much incentive there is to climb it.

MVG is correct in his overall assessment of what the challenges are for backwards compatibility on Drake, and I don't think anyone who understands the situation would disagree there. There is great disagreement on how big those challenges are.

To push the metaphor too far, I think there is disagreement with MVG on how high the hill is, but broad agreement on the lay of the land?

The incentives for climbing that hill are a question none of us can answer. The longer the Switch generation, the more and more Nintendo can get away with a clean next-gen break. On the other hand, Nintendo is signaling strongly that they don't want to start from scratch building their install base with the next system, or that they want to support a whole new storefront for every platform they build. That points strongly towards Nintendo wanting BC.

It will all come down to how much money Nintendo is willing to throw at the problem, and to a lesser extent, how Nintendo plans on doing power management on REDACTED. Emulation is something that can benefit hugely from modest increases in CPU clock speed, and so what Nintendo can do, and how smoothly, will partially depend on how much extra CPU power they can scrounge up.
 
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