Thomas_T9
Rattata
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With the NVIDIA Tegra T239 being grouped with the NVIDIA RTX 40-series GPUs, do you think it’s bold to assume T239 is being manufactured on TSMC’s 5nm process too?
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
- Start date
Zemya
Shriekbat
Speaking of which, I really wish Pokémon takes its time to get comfortable with the new hardware and deliver an at least decent Gen 10. Tenth generation is a big achievement, I wouldn't want to squander that and I hope Nintendo, after the SV performance debacle (despite the game being better than SwSh imo), will put their feet down.
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- She/They
My reasoning is more that they needed to speedrun the Switch's pre-release because they effectively had no hardware platform, and the Switch is alive and well so there's no need. I guess it's possible that their takeaway from the Switch marketing blitz is that console marketing can be much shorter than it needs to be, but I'm betting on they'll err on the side of caution since having a shorter period of announcement -> release is insane to me.
Nah, it was probably a timing thing. Them both being in development and the person being capable of performing their tasks on two product lines at once
KCannon
Tektite
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A quick transition contradicts with Nintendo's 2023 DLC plans. If it's extending towards late 2023, then it's because they want to maintain engagement with current Switch. Switch 2 being released soon would completely impact that.
It made sense to have suck a quick transition from Wii U to Switch because there was literally nothing post-Paper Mario.
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Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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No, I think that's a reasonable deduction. I don't necessarily believe it's certainly on TSMC 5nm, but I definitely think it's a possibility. Unlike other Orin chips, T239 needs very good power efficiency. If they were able to get it down to N4, that will bear fruit.
- Pronouns
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A quick reveal to release cycle doesn't mean a quick transition, it means the opposite. They want to ensure engagement on the previous console as long as possible.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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Because that DLC will run on Switch 2, and I'm fairly certain every game getting DLC from Nintendo this year will get a patch for Switch 2. It would be symbiotic. Keep their last product profitable and supported, encourage people playing those games to upgrade, and provide content for the new device for the first year with little extra work.
For ignoring the most recent staff post, you are being given a two week threadban. -Derachi, Red Monster, Irene
“Ungrateful.”
Uhh.. what? What do I owe to clout-chasers? Bore off.
Uhh.. what? What do I owe to clout-chasers? Bore off.
D
Deleted member 1141
Guest
That's how I read it, especially given the individual separates the two projects. They're just managing both of these ate the same time (and as noted, may have just came down to timing and availability).
this is irrelevant when all your games and dlc will work on the switch 2. people don't suddenly stop buying and playing old games when the new system comes out unless they straight up can't play them
the tablet portion here is very sleek. that's one thing Nintendo could do for the next system. though it is on the plain side
KCannon
Tektite
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Nah. I don't believe this will happen. Nintendo has always been historically quick to transition. 3DS was one of the few times were they maintained support, but it was mostly out of not being that confident on Switch back then.
We will get some cross-gen stuff, but it will be mostly with titles being announced to both. I do not see the likes of GameFreak for example to devote themselves to cross gen DLC.
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They explicitly talked about this starting in 2014 and 2015 about how they need to go forward with their next platform and beyond. The whole "not starting from zero every time" comes to mind. This is how they enact that strategy, long cross gen support so that day 1 switch 2 games have a built in potential audience of 130M and at the same time people won't suddenly want to stop buying Switch 1s.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Manakete
I mean, I agree, I'm just saying they won't launch before the Switch 2.
Zemya
Shriekbat
This thing screams DOA outside of a enthusiastic niche in the US.
KCannon
Tektite
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I personally think Nintendo is too stiff to go with that tactic.
They will milk the rest of Switch's life and then quickly fully transition to Switch 2 development, with a few pre-planned cross gen games.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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No they haven't
. They released models of GBA after DS released, 3DS after Switch released, and DS games after 3DS launched. Wii models after Wii U, too.it suffers being an premium android tablet dedicated to streaming. IMO, a streaming device shouldn't be expensive, so $400 is rich for this. $600 for 5G is lol worthy. I know modems are expensive, so they should prioritize getting a 5G modem with just enough horsepower to make the UX smooth
worse is that the chipset is damn near 3 years old. for a premium mobile device, that's bad
Erathix
Famiro
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I would tend to agree with this sentiment very much given the Nintendo of the past when it comes to their home consoles more so than their handhelds. However, Furukawa is different to Iwata and has made statements that, if we are to hope will be truly executed upon, that state the contrary and point towards continued cross-gen support across consoles to transition their audience to the next console whilst maximising profits on the last games/DLC they'll be churning out in that timeframe.
That's only if Furukawa is actually serious with his words. If not, then it could very well be a milk-toast approach to drag it out until they feel they reach the true end to the Switch's life and want to forcefully transition the audience onto the next console with a showcase direct and come out swinging with exclusives and upgraded cross-gen games (TOTK, Xenoblade, Pokémon) and Metroid Prime Remake/4 for cross-gen titles.
I...actually hope for the latter, whilst I understand the sense of the former, the latter just transitions everything along quicker so we can have more focused exclusives utilising the power of Drake instead of having to focus on making it work on OG Switch as well which will always lead to some concessions being made in development.
That being said, the idea of Nintendo rapidly transitioning without wanting to maximise profits with the amount of current users they have in any way possible is crazy but hey, Nintendo.
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Goodtwin
Like Like
With Nintendo only having one hardware platform now it makes sense have a slower transition. Nintendo has been selling 20 million Switch units every year, by releasing Switch 2 before Switch sales start to tank, they have the opportunity to sell more hardware units than ever. It would be poor planning to have a poor year of hardware sales, let's say less than 10 million hardware units sold, because you ran the old horse into the ground before rolling out the successor. Nintendo will be ok in 2023, I don't see sales falling off the cliff, but 2024 could/will see a sharp decline in sales. Release Switch 2 in 2023 and the combined Switch/Switch 2 sales could surpass 30 million units. Wait until holiday 2024 and it could be half that.
I think we will get the following as not just patches but a Switch 2 SKU with more graphics upgrades
Pokémon Scarlet and Violet patch around the release of Pokémon Expansion 1 which will release in May or June (same timeline as Expansion pass 1 for Sword and Shield). Maybe slight delayed to July due to Scarlet and Violet technical issues on Switch 1
Bayonetta 3 as this game is still relatively new
Xenoblade 3
Splatoon 2
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, perhaps new features like 6 player split screen.
Fire Emblem Engage
I think the rest of Switch back catalogue will not receive a Switch 2 SKU but some games may just get simple frame rate or resolution patches. I also think we will get performance boosts on all games to iron out frame rate and resolution (games with variable resolution) without the need of devs patching the games. Another I thought of is allowing original Switch games to run in Docked mode but in handheld (a optional setting)
NintenDuvo
Bob-omb
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- He him
Since Capcom is porting Monster Hunter Rise to other consoles this month, do you think they would port Monster Hunter World to the theoretical Nintendo Switch 2?
One advantage of cross gen games over exclusives is we can have better performing games. Guaranteed 60fps and 4K. Nintendo also tend to not liking to have massive budgets in their games and farvour art style over graphics. In my opinion I think Nintendo will let 3rd parties create the next gen games and Nintendo will focus on cross gen for years to come with the odd exclusive here and their. A 2D Mario game for example doesn't really need to be exclusive to Switch 2. Also if you check out Switch emulation on PC some of these Nintendo games look amazing with just a resolution and frame rate bump.
ArchedThunder
Uncle Beerus
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Pretty sure they did get cheaper, hence more games using 16Gb cards over 8GB cards later in the gen.
Switch 2 would also likely not be using the exact same card tech either, so the price history of Switch cards wouldn’t be relevant.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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I think a next gen update is likely, but I don't think it'll be tied to a re-release. A Switch 2 updated package version including Sunbreak and everything seems like an obvious choice, though.
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Theoretically, if it was to be a May release, what would be the best time to announce? Seems like you could do so ~8 months ahead in ~September if you didn't care about any potential effect on the upcoming holiday, but if you did you're kind of stuck with the accelerated time frame of a January announce.
A matter of perspective, I suppose. As much as anything it makes me think of late 3DS releases, with more content from series that were already present on the system. Another Luigi's Mansion, another Mario & Luigi remake, another version of Pokémon Sun & Moon, another Style Savvy game.
Raccoon
Fox Brigade
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Yep. It's easy for us to think about things backwards because speculation generally involves working backwards, but they choose a launch date and market around that, rather than choosing a date that they can safely announce something and launching based on that.
There are ample reasons not to believe in May but the short turnaround is, imo, not one of them. It's January 7th after all.
Apopheniac
Monolith Soft action game truther
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If the device is launching in four or so months, the testing for T239 would need to be essentially completed, wouldn't it? We're getting down to the wire towards when they'd need to start full production on the products.
- Pronouns
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Well, PCI-e testing was done in April of 2022 at the very latest, it could've been much earlier too but that's when it became public on Linux. Could be this same guy who did that though, I/O electrical validation would require PCI-e testing I believe.
Either way, if all of that was done in April 2022 then that's plenty of time to complete all that testing before mass manufacturing.
Aether
Tingle
actually, portables where never such a low risk for manufacturers as they are now.
- Of the shelf hardware (tablet/phone tech, laptop/convertible x64 SoCs)
- Android/Windows/Linux run mostly great and with little work on those Platforms
- high quality mass produced portable screens
- solid battery tech with mass produced lithium batteries
- universal power standards (USB-C PD)
- such high targets for stationary gaming (4k , 60+fps) means there is a loot of headroom to scale it down to a small screen
In other words: even if you don't sell tons, its not much more expensive then regular laptop products,
and those also don't sell as much as the top selling products. They also don't need to have a whole Eco System,
since they can just use the existing ones for their hardware (Steam, Epic, Play Store...)
Price: maybe a problem. bit it is sleek, and it seems to be a better experience then a phone with an added controller,
and if you search for phones with similar spects, you're probably not that far off.
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I see this as a great baseline comparison:
1080 144Hz Amoled display
128GB ufs with micro sd
camera
8GB Ram
400€
they are not earning from games sold, they cant expect to sell even close to switch numbers.
In other words, even with a dock i cant see switch 2 being worse for 50$ more.
NintenDuvo
Bob-omb
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- He him
In my opinion one for sure way to tell if a new system is launching is seeing if for Jan/Feb if we get a full nintendo direct with first party announcements or do we only get a ToTK dedicated direct or a direct mini. A partners showcase would be the worst case scenario but a sure fire sign Nintendo is gearing up for something.
Dekuman
Kremling
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We've been floating around the idea Nintendo will launch ahead of the holiday rush, but they'd done launches in their FY Q4 as recently as the Wii U.
I would not rule out a roll-out at E3 with a launch as late as November.
That said many times, if this thing exists and isn't in development hell, then I'm H2 2023, which is what i've been predicting since last year.
But I'm open to it slipping into 2024 now.
The big question mark for me is, the actual status of hardware because of all the confusing mixed signals from insiders about which mid-gen product was cancelled.
I would not rule out a roll-out at E3 with a launch as late as November.
That said many times, if this thing exists and isn't in development hell, then I'm H2 2023, which is what i've been predicting since last year.
But I'm open to it slipping into 2024 now.
The big question mark for me is, the actual status of hardware because of all the confusing mixed signals from insiders about which mid-gen product was cancelled.
OP
OP
Basically, Nvidia has been working with T239 physically as actual silicon since at least April 2022.
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Minor correction, FYQ4 is January to April, Wii U launched in November as you said, which is FYQ3. 3DS and Switch launched in FYQ4.
Intoxicate
The best is yet to come...
I’m as happy for not buying in the PS5 (lack of real exclusives) as I’m happy going for the OLED Switch (playing mainly handheld now) day one. With the momentum the Switch has I can live with a later Version 2. As long as software is coming. I had the Wii U day one and it was tough with some of the droughts we had.
Of course a PS4 level of graphics would have been great and feels due. But I don’t need another OG Switch 2 with only 2,5h game time in Zelda. So let’s skip the first revision an directly go to the V2. I’m in Team Winter 23 earliest. Mainly Pikmin 4 is the new teaser since it would be a great 4K showcase. Zelda even ran on Wii U so the Switch should have enough room left for some improvements.
Of course a PS4 level of graphics would have been great and feels due. But I don’t need another OG Switch 2 with only 2,5h game time in Zelda. So let’s skip the first revision an directly go to the V2. I’m in Team Winter 23 earliest. Mainly Pikmin 4 is the new teaser since it would be a great 4K showcase. Zelda even ran on Wii U so the Switch should have enough room left for some improvements.
ShaunSwitch
Moblin
I would love for this to happen and with the final content update for rise likely coming before June, I think a world port would sell well on the platform whilst fans wait for a new entry.
Capcom support on switch has been incredible as well, I see native versions of all of the resident evil games coming. Fingers crossed for Worldborne, would buy it in a heartbeat.
Not necessarily. Nintendo could literally do a direct with games for the 1H of the year with maybe a glance at a future game. That wouldn't be abnormal at all. That's usually what they do except for last year where they pretty much showed everything in the first direct. There have been many years where we really didn't know their 2H release schedule. We may have known a game or two but nothing concrete.
Now if it is a ToTK direct, which seems unlikely, I could agree with you. But then again who knows lol. I don't even know if Nintendo is sure about what they are going to do lmao. They seem to have not known for the last 3 years.
That's an interesting idea. I did a search as well and found one more with T239 and Nvidia. Hidden text and I've altered the text from the listing a bit to protect the person's identity.
Hidden content is only available for registered users. Sharing it outside of Famiboards is subject to moderation.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
Exactly. Electrical validation is part of verifying the hardware works. Though I suppose T239 validation could have come after developing RTX 40 validation tools. But yeah, Drake physically exists, and either they're being manufactured, or every bit of the line is ready to go the moment Nvidia says go.
@JoshuaJSlone is right, game card internals are not getting cheaper, and probably won't for the foreseeable future. The internals of gamecards are NAND storage, which is basically the only option, and NAND storage only got cheaper over the generations for the same reason that everything else did - node shrinks. To make 32GB chips as cheap as 16GB chips used to be, you have to make 32GB chips out of the same amount of physical silicon, which requires shrinking everything. You can't do that forever.
Ding ding ding.
I wouldn't be surprised if the next Switch had a similar reveal to release of the SWOLED. In fact, I am confident it will.
This is a rarity for me, but I agree with you.
I think a lot of things are possibilities, but one of them is that Nintendo all but shadow drops it. Simply put they look for when it really leaks (factory pictures, linkedin, etc), and have a prerecorded presentation that becomes a Nintendo direct a couple of days later.
The presentation basically shows that it's the Switch but better.
They attach a preview trailer with the Mario movie and drop the presentation online the same day. Switch 2 Direct.
This would also be around when they'd start advertising for Zelda, and they include a line in the advert that it's for "Switch and Switch 2".
On the topic of transition, I don't know why it would be much different than any other. They will have Mariko parts in warehouse, so they do a Zelda special edition and maybe another one for the fall, and keep selling the Lite until they are basically out of Mariko parts. About fall of 2025 they introduce a die shrink and the Switch 2 Lite.
Maybe if they're supply constrained for screens at some point we also get a Switch 2 TV box.
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Harsh, man!
mariodk18
Install Base Forum Namer
Announcement just before or at the end of the fiscal year is possible like the 3DS (which happened for different reasons, I know). The 3DS Direct on 8.29.14 that revealed the new 3DS was actually on a Friday and at the end of the month, so I could see a literal last moment announcement 3.31.23. That would be just under a month and a half, like the new 3DS gap from announcement to launch.
It would be tight, but if it doesn’t have any exclusives like the new 3DS, then third parties might still not now the exact release timing other than Q2-Q3 2023. And I know you might think no exclusives at all at launch would be bad, but I think that would work fine if TOTK is the “launch” title. Because I don’t think anyone, even Nintendo, would want to launch anything else on 5/12.
BUT I do think there would definitely be third party exclusives announced and shown off before launch. They would just start arriving in, say June at the earliest. It would even be a secret to most at Nintendo besides the top people.
It would be tight, but if it doesn’t have any exclusives like the new 3DS, then third parties might still not now the exact release timing other than Q2-Q3 2023. And I know you might think no exclusives at all at launch would be bad, but I think that would work fine if TOTK is the “launch” title. Because I don’t think anyone, even Nintendo, would want to launch anything else on 5/12.
BUT I do think there would definitely be third party exclusives announced and shown off before launch. They would just start arriving in, say June at the earliest. It would even be a secret to most at Nintendo besides the top people.
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I don't think anyone at Nintendo knows about this new console except for a few select people.
We've definitely butt heads before.Harsh, man!
Dekuman
Kremling
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Thank you, yes, I meant to say Q3, but typed Q4 as I mixed it up with calendar year quarter.
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