StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[LiC]

Will PS4 games on Drake even need UFS speeds? Would they run fine off of max speed current UHS-I micro SD cards?

Edit: my point is that perhaps UFS external cards won’t need to be ready by 5/12, so if we aren’t hearing of orders to Samsung then that might not be a smoking gun that a Zelda launch isn’t happening. Just throwing that out there.

PS5/XSX games don't even need UFS speeds. All games released today still need to be able to run on PC hard drives. PS5 exclusives like Rift Apart may have made a big deal about the storage speeds, but that's pretty much the equivalent of Mario Odyssey making a big deal about the Joy-cons.

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

Nintendo won't abandon physical for a while, still makes them money in Japan.

Even outside of JP it still makes them money

 

[Dekuman]

Physical is more desirable for a subset of users, which means there's always a baseline of sales.
Also retail is still a thing, if there's no physical release, there's no visibility in stores. This is why evensome devs releases empty boxes with a download code.

 

[Kazuyamishima]

Physical is more desirable for a subset of users, which means there's always a baseline of sales.
Also retail is still a thing, if there's no physical release, there's no visibility in stores. This is why evensome devs releases empty boxes with a download code.

I will buy physical for as long as I possibly can

 

[Layalseif]

Speculation post on when Nintendo will reveal the ZOLED Switch, if it's real.

Everyone knows the saying past actions is a good indication of future actions.

Nintendo Past Actions regard Limited Edition Consoles in 22.

Zelda Tears of the Kingdom releasing 12/5/23

ZOLED will most likely release on 28/4/23

Why you ask?

Previous Pokemon Scarlet and Violet OLED Switch released on 4/11/22 two weeks before Scarlet and Violet on 18/11/22.
Splatoon 3 OLED Switch released on 26/8/22 and Splatoon 3 on 9/9/22. Again two weeks before the game.

It stands to reason, and third time is the charm, that ZOLED could follow the same pattern.

Splatoon 3 OLED was revealed on 6/7/22 roughly 2 months before its release 26/8/22

Pokemon Scarlet and Violet OLED was revealed on 7/9/22 roughly 2 months before its release on 4/11/22

Most likely ZOLED will have a direct revealing it, either somewhere between 28/2/23-3/3/23 or in the week 6/3/23-10/3/23.

Directs are normally on Tuesday/Wednesday depending on the timezone. So the possible dates we could have are:

28/2/23

1/3/23

3/3/23-Anniversary of BOTW

7/3/23

8/3/23

That is roughly 2 months before its release date. (This is all speculation on my part)

Stores would also need plenty of time to preorder the product and give Nintendo the numbers. Or cut off preorders.

Other thoughts. Nintendo may have asked the factory to leak ZOLED to put a rest to all the rumours/speculation that Zelda Tears of the Kingdom is releasing with Switch 2.

Other crazy thought. Wouldn't it be cool and awesome if Nintendo revealed ZOLED on the 3/3/23? The 6th year anniversary of BOTW? It's highly unlikely but one can dream.

One last crazy thought. If Nintendo wanted to send off the Switch with a bang regarding number of units sold, releasing a Zelda Switch could be a good way to do it.

The Pareto principle states that 80% of sales comes from 20% of people.
Zelda BOTW has sold roughly 28 million (27.79 as of September 2022) We are rounding up to make things simpler.

20% of 28 million is 5.6 million. Lets round it down to 5 million. So if only 20% of people who bought BOTW buy the ZOLED, Nintendo can sell an extra 5 million units of the Switch.



TLR- if ZOLED is real, it should release on 28/4/23 2 weeks before Zelda TotK releases on 12/5/23.

 

[Discostew]

Someone on another site recently mentioned how they can't seem to find Joycons and Pro Controllers at any of the major retail stores. Is this something that typically happens after the holidays, or is this something unexpected?

 

[Kevin]

Someone on another site recently mentioned how they can't seem to find Joycons and Pro Controllers at any of the major retail stores. Is this something that typically happens after the holidays, or is this something unexpected?

Probably people spending gift card money and what not and buying up whatever stock had not moved during the holidays. As someone who worked at a mall for 10 years, this feels pretty common.

 

[Terrell]

If this is the case then I wonder how much Nintendo could bring down the cost of 16GB, 32GB and 64GB cards if they only ordered those sizes, making zero orders for 8GB and lower for Switch 2, and having 32GB as the standard size and thus the one that is ordered most.

I think there’s still reason to order 8GB or lower if higher capacities are not called for in a specific game, because that's still a cheaper option, but bringing cost per GB down overall would allow publishers to pay a similar rate to what they pay now for higher capacity.

ASIC Xtra ROM is Nand flash with a rom header. It’s clear both from their press releases about the tech and any breakdown of the cards.

All the tech I read only indicates they are not creating ROMs using mask tech, but there is a wide wide world between mask ROMs and NAND. The likelihood is that it would be using a PROM that requires high-voltage pulses to program them after fabrication, which likely happens before the chips are etched with the unique product code for each game. There are a few other options in between. An EEPROM (which would be very similar to what you describe by using NAND flash to store data) would not require chips that are programmed by the chip maker, as I clearly noted in the evidentiary support previously provided. The only reason Macronix is programming the content of the chips is because it's necessary, which means that XtraROMs being used in Game Cards are not EEPROMs, as it would be extremely economically inefficient (and incredibly unnecessary) to have the chip maker program an EEPROM and uniquely etch them with unique product codes.

Here is a good breakdown of the Switch game card but “Game System XtraROM” is clearly Macronix selling the 3DS/Switch tech to other parties and you can glean its nature from their documentation and press releases.

Encoding a whole game as ROM would likely cost 10x as much as a flash based solution.

Nintendo Switch Cartridge - EPROM or MASKROM?

does anyone know if Switch game cartridges are EPROM or MASKROM? the images above shows 2 types of configuration for these game carts; one that looks like a NAND chip and the other is a wafer sized flash memory chip that closely resembles to what's found inside a PS Vita cartridge. Thanks for tak...

forums.atariage.com

So I read this, and I notice they mention "Gaming Machine XtraROM" and then completely ignore the entire existence of ASIC XtraROM, which is what Nintendo is using and where it's most advertised, as one of 3 separate categories of XtraROM.
It also conflates XtraROM and HybridFlash, when the text indicates (if you actually read it carefully) that HybridFlash is a system-in-package that includes XtraROM inside of it, making them distinct technologies. Also, most of the sources in this post do not confirm the use of NAND, merely that it is possible it could use NAND (specifically identifying a means with which to make counterfeit Switch cards, thank you Wayback Machine for the assist). Also, the 20-year lifespan in the text refers to HybridFlash directly, but then says that applies to XtraROM; it's a poorly-written piece being cited overall.
So it's cobbling together an understanding that conflates products and cites an article that was discussing HybridFlash, which includes XtraROM inside its package, rather than XtraROM on its own, and never details which variation is being discussed to begin with, and another article discussing how, by replicating the DRM chip inside, one could fabricate a counterfeit using Flash and said "Game Cards use Flash!"

The hope of cheaper Game Cards and larger capacities still lies in die shrinks to Macronix's XtraROM technology or Nintendo finding another supplier to get them what they want. Considering the volume of their business, they'd have a lot of takers.

Does anyone think that Nintendo may introduce a cheaper digital-only Drake as an option? Would that even make sense financially?

It would not. You'd have to discount such a model as a means to distinguish it as PS5 has, and the digital only version of PS5 still loses Sony money because they had to discount it more than the cost of the disc drive they removed. And a Game Card reader is likely a lot cheaper than a mechanical part like a disc drive is.

 

[Layalseif]

Someone on another site recently mentioned how they can't seem to find Joycons and Pro Controllers at any of the major retail stores. Is this something that typically happens after the holidays, or is this something unexpected?

Could just be post Xmas sell out? And/or the new stock has not been delivered to the stores yet.

Bad joke: another boat got stuck in the Suez Canal, causing delays

 

[Zaimokuza]

Considering that full price Nintendo published games never get under 39,99€ physical games must be protected at all costs.

Like, Skyward Sword is currently 35€ on Amazon, Xenoblade 3 is 50€ and Bayonetta 3 spends half its time at 46€. Amazon France sometimes has even better deals.

Physical must live.

 

[Bnois]

Considering that full price Nintendo published games never get under 39,99€ physical games must be protected at all costs.

Like, Skyward Sword is currently 35€ on Amazon, Xenoblade 3 is 50€ and Bayonetta 3 spends half its time at 46€. Amazon France sometimes has even better deals.

Physical must live.

Agree. I’m amazed at how many people would like to own nothing

 

[Bosintang]

Agree. I’m amazed at how many people would like to own nothing

And I'm amazed at how many people are material fetishists.

 

[Zaimokuza]

And I'm amazed at how many people are material fetishists.

Just as a disclaimer: my main platforms are switch and pc. My Atlus library is completely digital on both the 3ds and psvita. Mine is a completely price related argument.

 

[Bnois]

And I'm amazed at how many people are material fetishists.

Material fetishist? What’s that?
Investing in something that you can sell in case of emergency is a common sense in my book.
On my shelves I’ve stuff for around 5k, so if anything happens to my financial stability, I can rely on that for a little bit. Better than having some pixels on eshop

 

[slsk]

Here is a good breakdown of the Switch game card but “Game System XtraROM” is clearly Macronix selling the 3DS/Switch tech to other parties and you can glean its nature from their documentation and press releases.

Encoding a whole game as ROM would likely cost 10x as much as a flash based solution.

Nintendo Switch Cartridge - EPROM or MASKROM?

does anyone know if Switch game cartridges are EPROM or MASKROM? the images above shows 2 types of configuration for these game carts; one that looks like a NAND chip and the other is a wafer sized flash memory chip that closely resembles to what's found inside a PS Vita cartridge. Thanks for tak...

forums.atariage.com

According an (old) Macronix press release, XtraROM is definitely not related to NAND Flash (https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20120713PR201.html&chid=9)

XtraROM's superiority over NAND flash in many areas

They also clearly separate NAND Flash and ROM products on their website (https://www.mxic.com.tw/en-us/about/Pages/company-overview.aspx)

Macronix, a leading integrated device manufacturer in the Non-Volatile Memory (NVM) market, provides a full range of NOR Flash, NAND Flash, and ROM products.

In addition, we have launched our 19-nanometer NAND Flash and e•MMC™ product family, which are ideal for embedded applications demanding higher quality and reliability. In our ROM Business, XtraROM® products with 32-nanometer process have been shipping.

Finally they tout some special benefits of XtraROM that are harder to achieve with NAND Flash (https://www.mxic.com.tw/en-us/products/ROM/Pages/default.aspx)

With no extra mask charge, we can also build your DRM (Digital Right Management) scheme in the circuit of XtraROM® to protect your content from being pirated. Our designs are used as robust medium for content publishing in gaming applications around the world.

Nintendo have always been super concerned about piracy so it's hard to see them moving away from something like this.

 

[Bosintang]

Material fetishist? What’s that?
Investing in something that you can sell in case of emergency is a common sense in my book.
On my shelves I’ve stuff for around 5k, so if anything happens to my financial stability, I can rely on that for a little bit. Better than having some pixels on eshop

Carlin has a nice piece on that topic

 

[niconiconick64]

I love physical cartridge games but they need to die for a myriad of reasons

Such as?

beyond even that, it's so wasteful

Nearly everything on a switch cartridge can be manufactured using recycled materials.

• gold contacts: from older electronics
• plastic shell
• the sticker which is just paper and some glue
• the case entirely

"waste" is not an excuse.

With cartridges having the slowest loading time out of all the Switch's storage mediums, I wholeheartedly agree.

If games that would normally require fast loading times such as open world ones can run just fine on switch, then it's not really a matter of the storage being slow, but rather software optimization.

Here's a video from an actual game developer who worked on way weaker hardware and his thoughts about the whole PS5 SSD and ratchet and clank - rift apart debacle (how that game doesn't actually need a fast SSD to achieve it's goal).

Of course, pop in is going to be an issue as long as the storage medium and the gpu memory bandwidth are slow, but if your game suffers extensively from hardware-related issues, then it probably shouldn't be on switch (let alone have a physical switch version).

Better cartridge technology could be used to remedy this as well as faster storage on drake. That coupled with dedicated decompression hardware should be a 'good enough' solution for most developers.

 

[arsen]

Digital is pretty much only good to avoid cart-switching, other than that meh.

 

[karmitt]

I’d go mostly digital if I could:
1. Easily share content with my wife. I’m not that keen on the primary / secondary sharing system in place.
2. Have confidence that my content would run via back compatibility next gen. Nintendo hasn’t demonstrated any such commitment yet

 

[Terrell]

I'd go all digital if I wasn't paying full price for a game AND also amortizing the cost of the storage needed to keep them all downloaded on top of that (because no, I do not trust any platform holder to not revoke the access to something I paid for unless I keep it for myself). All digital is only more economical if you buy less than 10 retail games during your full ownership of the console.

 

[Concernt]

To this day publishers still don't want to have games in 32GB carts. PS5 uses similar decompression techniques as the rumoured Switch 2. And even still you got games like GTAV that are huge. I seriously doubt a publisher can fit GTAV on a 16GB cart. Honestly it doesn't bother me as I'm from the UK so downloading isn't an issue for me. I'm just thinking of other countries where this maybe an issue. I think cartridges are basically going to be like keys/verifying but majority of games will be downloads going forward. I swear I read somewhere some pretty large Switch games even come in 8GB carts.

I wonder why GTAV keeps coming up in discussions about install size when it originally came on DVD! That's less natural progression of game sizes and more Rockstar's choices that resulted in a 10X size increase.

 

[Zaimokuza]

I wonder why GTAV keeps coming up in discussions about install size when it originally came on DVD! That's less natural progression of game sizes and more Rockstar's choices that resulted in a 10X size increase.

You forgot to write on how many dvds

 

[spekkeh]

All digital is only more economical if you buy less than 10 retail games during your full ownership of the console.

Or if you're from Europe or Japan <3 vouchers

 

[arsen]

You forgot to write on how many dvds

If anyone is curious, 7!

Spoiler

In this case, I agree that digital is a superior choice.

 

[Stinky Horse]

@Layalseif There is typically a Pokemon Direct on the 27th of Feb, so not sure there will be another Direct the same week, But the ZOLED could be a stand alone announcement that week like the last two models (IIRC?)

 

[Gotdatmoneyy]

And I'm amazed at how many people are material fetishists.

It is more about costs and access and not about the actual material. In countries with low buying power the ability to lend and buy second hand is important for their users. Nintendo software doesn't ever receive more than 30% discounts digitally which make their games very inaccessible for a good chunk of people.

No need to be inflammatory dude.

 

[Concernt]

You forgot to write on how many dvds

To be fair, 2. However, Xbox 360 Game Disks could only hold 8.3GB, and generally wasn't compressed. With modern compression, I'm sure you could get that 16.6GB below 16GB.

 

[Concernt]

If anyone is curious, 7!

Spoiler

In this case, I agree that digital is a superior choice.

That's the PC CD installation pack. It even says PC CD on the box!

 

[Aether]

Here's a video from an actual game developer who worked on way weaker hardware and his thoughts about the whole PS5 SSD and ratchet and clank - rift apart debacle (how that game doesn't actually need a fast SSD to achieve it's goal).

Ah , that channel. Hes not wrong.
But it ignores 1 crucial aspect: time and scope.
needing to partition your space that way means you have half the memory for assets. so essentially you would need double the ram for the same result.
-> obvious trade off. you can also ignore HDD speeds on ps3 is all you do is run an 30mb 16bit game. you can load everything into ram, heck some old games are small enough to be stored in modern CPU caches.

if we are not ignoring the graphical/visual ambitions of modern productions, then the limitations are clearly the storage,OR that ram is more expensive and harder to implement in that amount, so going the ssd route is the safer bet (and it reduces the initial load or sequences where you DONT know where the user will land).
Also: knowing and planing all that and pre baking everything, optimizing...thats way more work, that can be spent on increasing the details, the ambition, the gameplay of those sequences, or having simply more of them. so in this usecase the "old way" would either imcrease the production cost/time or it would reduce the segments we are talking about here.

How you slice it, SSDs are a huge benefit and storage speed needs to be considered in future hardware.
Heck, even if we had 32GB of ram, who wants to wait 5 minutes to load everything for the initial start?

Mind you, i like his channel, and his point that technically the gameplay is posible is valid, and he aso has a pined kommend where he mentions that they made a great game and that it uses the ssd for its take.
I just dissagree with him that "technically possible mechanics" is the same as what the developer wants to achive, and im sure that it would not be the same.
Thin of modern open world games. if you limit the LoD so that stuff pop in just 2 metrs of you, and you only show obvious markers from higher distances, then you probably could have implemented something like BotW on the n64. but would it be the same? seing a huge green plane, and having 3 markers in the far distance, and only 5-10 meters from then you see what they actually where, that there where a lot of trees, etc?
no. its the same argument, gone to the extreme. Its mechanically comparable, gameplay/feel wise probably not.

 

[Zaimokuza]

Or if you're from Europe or Japan <3 vouchers

Vouchers in Europe only make sense if you want to buy BotW + Smash, otherwise you are better off waiting for the 39,99 discount.

To be fair, 2. However, Xbox 360 Game Disks could only hold 8.3GB, and generally wasn't compressed. With modern compression, I'm sure you could get that 16.6GB below 16GB.

That's not a standard dvd though,and are you really arguing for a modern game with that texture quality?

 

[kvetcha]

And I'm amazed at how many people are material fetishists.

Hey, with the way corporations have been treating their content the past few years, there’s valid reason to want to own physical copies, even aside from resale (which is reason enough).

 

[Concernt]

Vouchers in Europe only make sense if you want to buy BotW + Smash, otherwise you are better off waiting for the 39,99 discount.


That's not a standard dvd though,and are you really arguing for a modern game with that texture quality?

It's a Digital Versatile Disk! It's a DVD no matter how you slice it! In fact, a single DVD could indeed fit the entire Xbox 360 install of GTA V, Xbox 360 Game Disk DVDs were size constrained, not extra large!

Though no, I wasn't advocating for that, but game sizes don't inflate by an order of magnitude to make the car paint 10% less aliased. There's more to game sizes than "modern games are just bigger!". We have more ways to compress, manipulate and apply textures than ever before. Splatoon 3 and Animal Crossing New Horizons both look great but have TINY installs. It's not like it's been 10 years, so files from the same game have to be ten times bigger

 

[CypressFX]

@NateDrake

Will your next weeks (?) episode be exclusively covering the Switch hardware topic, or is it a hybrid one?


Best regards!

 

[Hermii]

honestly nagging Nate should be a bannable offense at this point.

Not advocating for a long ban, just a day or two.

 

[Skittzo]

honestly nagging Nate should be a bannable offense at this point.

Not advocating for a long ban, just a day or two.

Tagging anyone repeatedly to ask for information that they have no obligation to share should be imo

 

[CypressFX]

honestly nagging Nate should be a bannable offense at this point.

Not advocating for a long ban, just a day or two.

OMG - chill dude. "Tagging him taggin them" Whats the fuss about? It seems you and 2-3 people are the only one complaining. If Nate doesnt want to be tagged he can tell here and I personally wont do it again. This is a communtiy, we want to discuss real things and not wishes from some users.

As long as hes ok with it, I really do not see it why you should care at all. Just go by your business...

 

[Linkie3]

I wanted to go digitally on the PS5 for convenience, but that would cost me €15 per game extra, and that is just not worth it for me. If console manufacturers like Nintendo and Sony would make the digital prices atleast the same as the average price for the psychical release, i would go digital. But especially for Playstation it's just not worth the extra costs. Atleast Nintendo in Europe still has the €100 vouchers for 2 games.

 

[Bosintang]

Hey, with the way corporations have been treating their content the past few years, there’s valid reason to want to own physical copies, even aside from resale (which is reason enough).

Then argue for corporations to have better policies regarding how their digital content is handled.
Videogames aren't a very eco friendly hobby to begin with, but if the community of such a trivial subject isn't willing to make even the smallest effort because reasons, then we're no better than the rest.

 

[kvetcha]

Then argue for corporations to have better policies regarding how their digital content is handled.
Videogames aren't a very eco friendly hobby to begin with, but if the community of such a trivial subject isn't willing to make even the smallest effort because reasons, then we're no better than the rest.

Arguing for better digital content ownership policies and acknowledging the current reality of digital vs physical ownership are not mutually exclusive.

 

[Hermii]

Then argue for corporations to have better policies regarding how their digital content is handled.
Videogames aren't a very eco friendly hobby to begin with, but if the community of such a trivial subject isn't willing to make even the smallest effort because reasons, then we're no better than the rest.

You can't expect corporations to do that, as they are obligated to maximize profits over all else. Regulations would have to come from governments/ the EU etc.

 

[Bosintang]

Regulations would have to come from governments/ the EU etc.

Which means, us. As I suggest it.

 

[l-dawg979]

so is there gonna be a new switch model this year?

 

[CypressFX]

so is there gonna be a new switch model this year?

We dont know unfortunately.

It could be, it could be not.


I think Nate will publish his podcast next week or the week after (at least going by one of his comments here at Famiboards) and will provide us with new info.

If Nate tells us the chances are very slim or almost non-existent, I personally wouldnt count on it to come out in 2023 or even 2024.

 

[Bosintang]

so is there gonna be a new switch model this year?

I doubt it. I think that the ship has sailed for a release with Zelda, in terms of marketing and actually reliable rumors. I also don't imagine Nintendo releasing their new flagship console 4 months after their biggest game in years.
2024 is in my opinion more likely, and preferable as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Skittzo]

so is there gonna be a new switch model this year?

There is no consensus. Many think yes, due to the known state of the chip from the Nvidia leak. Many think no based on lineup and sales trajectory.

 

[Raccoon]

2024 is in my opinion more likely, and preferable as far as I'm concerned.

why? aren't you cognizant of your unyielding march toward death?

 

[Goodtwin]

In the history of Nintendo Directs, has Nintendo ever not done one in either January or February? A Direct in the near future is basically a lock, and it's also a deadline for announcing new hardware. If the next Direct comes and goes with no new hardware announcement, then first half 2023 is off the table. A few months later at the E3 Direct, Nintendo will present the road map for the second half of 2023, and that would again be very telling if anything is coming this year. Actually, Nintendo will be briefing investors on their expectations of sales at the end of their fiscal year on March 31. If Nintendo hasn't announced new hardware but tells investors they are forecasting 25+ million hardware units sold, that could be a sign for new hardware for holiday 2023 since there is no way OG Switch will be moving 25+ million units.

 

[Skittzo]

why? aren't you cognizant of your unyielding march toward death?

Dude it's too early in the morning for existential crises

 

[Concernt]

so is there gonna be a new switch model this year?

Probably, there's been a new model every 2 years since launch.

 

[Skittzo]

Probably, there's been a new model every 2 years since launch.

Even before that actually. Nintendo has released new hardware every two years for like, multiple decades I think.