eye0h
"it is known"
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what a time wow. shoutout smealum
if you know you know
doubt it will happen again
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
- Start date
boodream
Paratroopa
Nintendo is not Playstation. And their market positioning is different. That’s what I’m trying to say, although it seems to be extremely controversial.
Referring to the PS5 to evoke the future of Nintendo assumes that the target audiences are exactly the same, which I do not believe.
The Switch has managed to bring back a gamer audience, notably by merging its audience of home console and portable console. The fact remains that the best-sellers of the Switch are overwhelmingly Nintendo games. This is less the case at Playstation. Even for PlayStation 5. Even with great first-party games on Playstation.
The other point that bothers me in this comparison is that it refers to a completely unusual and unprecedented situation, the shortage that Playstation 5 had to face, which inevitably impacted its plans.
When people literally can’t get the PS5 they want, it makes sense to have a much longer cross-generation period. That doesn’t necessarily make it a new standard. The future will tell.
In a factual way, we can for example simply compare the best sales of games on PS4 and the best sales of games on Nintendo Switch, it’s easy to do.
Of course it is possible to disagree with me, and of course I can be wrong and say nonsense. In any case I appreciate that your messages unlike others, does not feel the need to be systematically aggressive and unpleasant to express a disagreement.
Kazuyamishima
Moblin
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- He
More likely the reason is very strict ram management and just getting straight into the games
It's probably the main reason for no web browser at least.
Corim
Cappy
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- he/him
Life's good when you're a ninja block.
if you know you know
doubt it will happen again
HankyPanky
Bob-omb
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- Funcle
if hardware was planned for 1H 2023 (using Drake/equivalent) it's probably safe to say an enhanced version of TOTK was deep in development along with the base version. maybe what was shown were bullshots from the base version but this is example of a game where the enhanced version already exists.
I imagine Nintendo is going to want to sell this game again in Deluxe form (along with BOTW) when the new system eventually arrives.
This was the first game I bought on my 3DS. I quite enjoyed the game, despite some flaws.
if you know you know
doubt it will happen again
That was long before I knew it was being used for an exploit for 3DS homebrew.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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It is the reason there’s no web browser. Nintendo wanted this to be more secure than Area 51.
I also think they don't want to be on pornhubs list over most used devices.
Thraktor
"[✄]. [✄]. [✄]. [✄]." -Microsoft
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If it's a much larger device, like Steam Deck size, then yes, but personally I don't see that happening.
For Orin, the point at which you start losing efficiency is somewhere between 420MHz and 522MHz.
Switch does have a web browser, it's just restricted to things like captive portals (ie Wifi login pages). It's not that difficult to use it as a general purpose web browser if you have something like a Raspberry Pi that you can set up as a proxy server that dummies the captive portal.
I suspect the reason for Switch having a lightweight OS has less to do with security, and is more a reaction to Wii U's OS, which took up half the system's RAM, was very sluggish and bloated with features no-one used. Remember TVii? Me neither.
That's probably excessive in handheld mode honestly. Assuming they're targeting 720p in handheld and 4k in docked that's 9 times more pixels.
Armoured_Bear
Like Like
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- he
You'll get 2 TFLOPs docked if you're lucky, and you'll be grateful.
Ghostsonplanets
Ghost in the Sales
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2 TFLOPs for portable mode, which probably will use a 720p screen, would be insanely powerful.
https://gonintendo.com/stories/3163...ght-into-the-creation-of-the-switch-s-operati
You're spot on. Nintendo said the reason Switch OS was made with the concept of being fast, with minimal interruption to the player and game first. The inspiration was NES, which the the player could simply insert a game and play.
https://gonintendo.com/stories/3163...ght-into-the-creation-of-the-switch-s-operati
Gerald
Bob-omb
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Yeah ik, i think these teraflops are possible on TSMC 4N, about screen im pretty sure they will use 720p again, highly doubt about 1080p screen due to power cosumption
OP
OP
Asus ROG Ally vs Steam Deck: can powerful new tech deliver a game-changing handheld?
It's here - and as manufacturer Asus promised - sooner than expected. The Asus ROG Ally arrives just over a year since …
www.eurogamer.net
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- he / him
Nintendo sells new hardware models that play the same games hoping to sell to people who already own a previous version of the system all the time. Selling one that would play games better would just be even more attractive.
PS5 was in higher demand than supply, but it's still been one of the fastest selling systems in history. I don't think lack of new systems is what's different, but that software development ambitions/budgets/development times didn't grow as fast as would be necessary to make games passing on the earlier machines make sense.
Asus ROG Ally vs Steam Deck: can powerful new tech deliver a game-changing handheld?
It's here - and as manufacturer Asus promised - sooner than expected. The Asus ROG Ally arrives just over a year since …
Metro Exodus EE is relevant to my interests. I consider that a pretty good result for an AMD handheld. no doubt an Nvidia handheld would be better. at 540p and handheld power draw, a hypothetical Nvidia device could be a great experience. portable ray tracing is finally here
RennanNT
Bob-omb
I think we all agree with this. The diverging point is when people expect the next Switch be readily available to anyone who wants one.
When we look at OLED accounting for 51% of Switch sales in the last FY (9.2 mi out of 17.9 mi), we can see a lot of demand for upgrades and also demand from new users choosing the best experience over the cheaper ones. So, as long as they have a big lineup of system sellers, they should have enough demand to sell out for around 2 years, even if these system sellers are also available on the Switch.
And of course, if both we and Nintendo miscalculate and there's not much demand for the new one (say, another 3DS), then they will cancel Switch versions to boost demand and to have the next wave of games a little bit earlier.
I agree, but it's not just PS 1st party though. COD, FIFA, GTA, GI, Fortnite, ER, HL, etc and many other PS best-sellers and system-sellers are also on PS4 (and on the $300 Series S, some even on their phones and/or the Switch) and didn't prevent the huge demand for the PS5.
And considering that 70% of Switch owners in the US by 2018 had a PS or Xbox, the audiences may not differ as much as you think, specially the early adopters. But even if they do, replacing functional electronics for ones which do the same thing but better became quite widespread nowadays. Not saying that a huge part of their user base will do it without exclusive games, but a small chunk of 130+mi is still a lot of demand.
Giancarlo
Nintendo connoiseur
Skyward Sword also came a year before the Wii U launch, usualy Zelda games denote the end of a Nintendo console, sometimes Kirby games too.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
Drake has 6x as big a GPU as Switch, so I think a 6x jump should be the baseline. Which would be 2.3 TF docked, and 1.4TF handheld. So between the two of you.
We can nuance that a little bit, if we want to start reaching out. Nintendo tried to keep handheld and docked mode balanced to the pixel count, before beefing up handheld a bit at the last minute for Zelda. With a custom chip, it's a decent assumption that they'll try that again, and have more success getting that right.
There is more room in docked mode for pushed clocks, so if we keep handheld the same, and push docked just to match the pixel ratio, you get 3.15 TF, docked. Well under 2 TF in your hand, well over 2 TF on your TV.
Steam Deck runs 1.0-1.6 TF depending on the game. So between REDACTED's better node and more efficient CPUs, that passes the smell test for a smaller, more power efficient device. If we go the other route, and assume that they'll depress handheld clocks for better battery life, rather than jack docked clocks, then 1.02 TF in handheld, 2.3 in docked. This would keep REDACTED in roughly the same place, relative to the other current gen consoles, that the Switch was relative to the last gen.
This is all pretty straightfoward ballparking. The PS4->PS5 jump was ~6x as well, which is a pretty good measure of what you can do with 7 years of engineering improvements, at roughly matched costs. And anyone who thinks "because Nintendo" the Wii -> Wii U was a 30x jump. A certain amount of performance win is just effectively free because the industry keeps moving no matter what you do.
I love this game as much - no, more - than the next person, but let's not get too caught up in the numbers. The design of the Switch is already more modern than the PS4, Nintendo is going to be able to do incredible stuff with REDACTED no matter what "percent of a PS4" it is. And with enough of an install base, so will 3rd parties.
With DLSS, 2TF is enough to offer PS4 Pro level experiences, anything else is just gravy. If you really want Series S performance in TV mode - then you can buy a Series S. They're less than 200 bucks used. Mario is going to look great no matter what.
Giancarlo
Nintendo connoiseur
mainline games of the Legend of Zelda franchise take between 5/6 years to complete it development, Nintendo EPD 3, has just finished Tears of the Kingdom and begun the pre-production of the next game of the franchise, that is likey to release in 2028/2030
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Launch title for Drake, then?
Dlss would completely muddy the power/ pixel count ratio needed on Drake though. And even if we all want the best possible node, there is still room for Nintendo to disappoint us there.
But there's a limit to how low you can go on Ampere. Nintendo/ Nvidia wouldn't make a chip so large they can't clock it efficiently.
kimbo99
Spirit Detective
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You're right but it's technically the 2nd Zelda game from the same gen that denotes the end of the console lifespan
MadMarvainy
Moblin
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It has me wondering if Zelda will be 30fps or 60fps on Drake. This team really showed off their technical chops with ToTK.
Wasn't the last 60fps Zelda game Windwaker or was that game definitely 30fps and I'm taking crazy pills?
MadMarvainy
Moblin
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I love the Switch OS, other console's OSs are needlessly busy with the worst kind of feature creep.
Switch OS is pretty snappy, responsive, and simple. I was surprised at how quickly I could capture 30s clips and share them too.
I do miss the catchy music though... And it's a shame how terribly the shop runs.
None of the 3D Zeldas have been 60fps in their original release. Only the 2D ones are.
Though, Skyward Sword HD was upgraded to 60fps.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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That’s weirdly unbalanced.
1.6TF, or bust.
3.2TF and no higher
My final offer.
It averages more to 1.3TF based on a post Thraktor did a while back about it doing 1.3GHz or so, most of the time(?). I can’t find it but I know he said it.
Which is far higher than what the switch would operate at of course, but you don’t need 1.3GHz for 1.3TF on Drake, but you already know all that so I won’t pester you yadda yadda
This is just my two cents, but I’m of the opinion that when referring to DLSS and how it increases the relative performance, one shouldn’t view it from the lens of multiplier, ie “DLSS Super Res makes Drake take that 2.1TFLOP and 2x it to give you the same performance of a 4.2TFLOP machine” because it’s grossly overselling it.
I’m fact, I am of the opinion that DLSS SS should be seen as a sort of percentage gain and not used in some form of multiplicative denomination in a conversation pertaining to it.
It is more accurate or representative of how or what it actually works like.
Like say, “a 2.1TF Drake with DLSS SS enabled gains a net average of 26% when enabled that is comparable to a GPU that is listed as 2.7TF on paper while consuming less, producing less heat and offering the same image quality with more consistent results.”
It’s added to it rather than multiplicative. But I’m probably splitting hairs here.
Wind Waker was always 30fps.
OP
OP
If Breath of the Wild's any indication, my assumption is that Nintendo's probably going to have Tears of the Kingdom still run at 30 fps when running on hardware equipped with Drake, since the frame rates in Tear of the Kingdom are probably dictated by the physics in Tear of the Kingdom's engine.
And Wind Waker HD's running at 30 fps.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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It’s on the engine Splatoon 3 uses.
Which is a 60FPS game.
Most curious.
[Insertevilgirllookingbackjpeghere]
In seriousness this means nothing probably since it could just be for streamlining the development process, but the one percent of me thinks this is intended for a future patch to unlock it and let it run at 60.
MadMarvainy
Moblin
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As some have speculated, it seems like Zelda will always be their technical showcase game where they have no issue targeting 30fps to teach their overall technical goals for the game.
I guess i misremembered because WW ran so smoothly for me back in the day. And it's been years since I've revisited it.
OP
OP
Nintendo probably created a fork of Splatoon 3's engine specifically for Tears of the Kingdom since Tears of the Kingdom still uses Havok for the physics, but the 2022 version.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
It clouds it a bit, but I don't think it's completely muddy
. If you're doing DLSS Performance mode, you still need to render a 1080p image underneath. Yeah, you'll need to throw a little performance at DLSS itself, but you'll probably be targeting some use of tensor cores in handheld mode, like DLAA. The exact gap between the two modes might not match 2.25x exactly, but I feel solid about those rough ranges. Not to bring two threads together, but...
There is some interesting info here on what a 5nm class process node could do to a Steam Deck like system, in terms of size and battery life. You can also see the advantages of a truly custom chip - AMD has talked about tuning the power curve for some of these chips, and Valve really dialed in the portable experience.
If you go with the "Nintendo will optimize for battery life" angle (which I tend to), then look at the Steam Deck, then look at the tech that is at Nintendo's disposal then "Steam Deck perf, Switch form factor" seems... pretty conservative, really.
1 TFLOPS, with a 720p VRR screen and Nintendo's software stack would be a PS4 in your hand, with power left over. And on the TV, a simple 2.25 jump would give you plenty of power to take those 1080p PS4 images up to 4k. I would be very happy with that.
ShadowFox08
Paratroopa
Yeah, I know it was taped out last year, according to LinkedIn profiles of some nvidia engineers. But there's no confirmation of the node and foundry so far. I don't know if release date matters or not, when we've had that report from Nate about a model/dev kit being canceled a few months back.
Asus ROG Ally vs Steam Deck: can powerful new tech deliver a game-changing handheld?
It's here - and as manufacturer Asus promised - sooner than expected. The Asus ROG Ally arrives just over a year since …
4nm tsmc with some disappointing performances.
9w mode on steam deck beats out rally in a lot of games.
In 15 watt performance mode (which only accounts for the SOC), it's really pulling more like 20-30 watts for the entire system. It doesn't give a 50% power boost over SD as initially advertised
Rally only really shines in turbo mode (25 watt mode)in which you get +60% framerate performance over SD.. but the entire unit it's gonna be 30-48 watts in power draw in certain games, with battery life at 50 minutes.
I'm really curious what CPU and GPU speeds are set for each mode..
Also, not digging that they advertise those 8.60 GPU tflops specs. It's like advertising double precision as the true speed. Misleading.. Bit as DD stated, there's clearly a lot of bugs that need to be worked out. It's like beta mode.
Perhaps that bandwidth with all that GPU power could be a major bottleneck/holding it back from more performance when compared to SD?
But anyway... The ASUS Rally is on a 4nm tsmc node with the following specs: An 8 core 5.0 GHz CPU, 12 units 2.6GHz GPU, 1080p 120hz screen, 16 GB LPDDR5 6400 M/T (full 102 GB/s speed) while running up to 48 watts in tbe most demanding games.
Comparing to a theoretical T239/Drake/Switch 2 on a 4nm node that can run an 8 core A78c 1.5-2.2Ghz CPU, 1Ghz GPU (~3 TFLOPs), 12-16 GB LPDDR5 and 720p/1080p screen.
From a power draw perspective, Drake has the advantage of more GPU cores and at lower clock speeds (as well as substantially lower clock speeds for the CPU). It also will have a fsr more efficient OS/taking up less resources, a better ray tracing hardware system and software, and DLSS to boot. The RAM bandwidth is going to be in tbe same situation as Ally. It won't beat the Ally in CPU performance, but man will it be interesting to see the SD vs Aya Neo Air 2 vs Ally vs Switch 2 comparisons.
I'm really curious what Nintendo will do with the battery size and power draw. I kinda expect OG switch battery power draw and life
Really hoping we do get that 4nm tsmc, as well as lpddr5x RAM (maxing out the 133GB/s bandwidth), although whatever they decided is already taped out at this point.
The likelihood of Nintendo going with anything but T239 for a console that will be released before 2026, is near zero.
It's a chip that's tailor made for a gaming console. Many of the design decisions don't make sense any other way (8 core a78, FDE). And it's not likely Nvidia can offer anything that's worth upgrading for anytime soon.
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That’s a cool prospect. I really hope something like this comes to pass. I’d be over the moon with a Switch 2 fitting this description.
OP
OP
Assuming Drake's taped out during 1H 2022 (here and here), I don't expect LPDDR5X-8533 (max bandwidth of 136.528 GB/s for a bus width of 128-bit) to be supported, considering LPDDR5X-8533 wasn't announced to be validated until October 2022 and mass produced until November 2022. (I think there's a possibility Grace was taped out during 2H 2022, considering Nvidia delayed the release of Grace from 1H 2023 to 2H 2023, which does explain how Grace was able to support LPDDR5X-8533.)
So assuming Drake's taped out during 1H 2022, I think the absolute best case scenario is LPDDR5X-7500 (max bandwidth of 120 GB/s for a bus width of 128-bit) since Micron and Samsung announced validation of LPDDR5X-7500 on November 2021 and March 2022 respectively. Of course, that's contingent on Nintendo and Nvidia using a RAM controller that supports LPDDR5X-7500 before taping out Drake.
ziggyrivers
thunder
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Adding to the subject of Switch 2 buyers:
The Sucessor’s initial sales will be from hardcore gamers if it’s in Spring; from a lot of demographics if it releases in Holidays
The Sucessor’s initial sales will be from hardcore gamers if it’s in Spring; from a lot of demographics if it releases in Holidays
OP
OP
Primarily more bandwidth since there's no difference between LPDDR5 and LPDDR5X in terms of the voltage and Vddq.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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Many games use this middleware engine and are also targeting 60FPS, though they don’t hit it due to other reasons m…
That said, don’t think that’s a reason it can’t be 60.
NZZN
#Team2023
Tears of the Kingdom can absolutely run at 60fps, there is a memory patch that allows it to run at a dynamic 60fps without affecting the speed of the game's logic, if Nintendo were to make a 60fps version the only change they would need to make for the game itself is re-encoding the FMV cutscenes at 60fps.
Ghostsonplanets
Ghost in the Sales
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Nah. Switch being such a sucess (140+ million projected by the end of FY24) taps into a lot of demographics at the same time. I expect a Switch 2 to have PS5 level zeitgeist, where the vast majority rushed to try to upgrade from Day 1. The "I want a Switch with better GFX and performance" isn't something shouted only by the hardcore.
ShadowFox08
Paratroopa
Sorry I don't think I got my point cross. I don't think they would go anything beyond t239. I was putting emphasis on the hypothetical specs and node of Drake I wrote and comparing vs Asus Ally.
In regards to me talking about the possible canceled model that Nate mentioned a few months back, and if it was actually true.. I'm sort of actually thinking it could have been an older Drake with an older node (8nm Samsung). But that's just for fun and nothing concrete.
I don't expect it either. I'm putting my expectations low at lpddr5 for now. I know we've had this discussion before, and more than once too timing of the memory controller during the tape out)
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ziggyrivers
thunder
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Oh, I’m aware of that, but I was focusing on initial sales, like when it get literally released, the launch period
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