StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[LiC]

machine translation: "Despite the announcement of the new model, Nintendo's stock price is falling. It is highly likely that the new model will be released after 2025, and it is judged that this fiscal year will be tough. Since Nintendo used the word "successor machine", investors are predicting a development similar to Wii → Wii U, rather than a generational change like Wii → Switch."

If machine translation is to be believed, idk why it is "highly likely after 2025" (I'm thinking mistranslation).

But definitely sounds like a bit of dooming over there.. thinking this would be like Wii -> Wii U

The machine translation is "It has become clear that new models will not be released until 2025, making this period [fiscal year 2025] a difficult one." You might consider editing your post.

We can't translate our way out of the stupidity of the "successor machine" comparison, though.

 

[darthdiablo]

The machine translation is "It has become clear that new models will not be released until 2025, making this period [fiscal year 2025] a difficult one." You might consider editing your post.

We can't translate our way out of the stupidity of the "successor machine" comparison, though.

That translation makes more sense. The one I shared was direct from Twitter's own translation service (by way of Google)

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

The machine translation is "It has become clear that new models will not be released until 2025, making this period [fiscal year 2025] a difficult one." You might consider editing your post.

We can't translate our way out of the stupidity of the "successor machine" comparison, though.

今期= "Current fiscal year" is correct.

 

[Darknut85]

In my opinion, probably has more to do with a number of people here preferring Nintendo to be rather safe with the Nintendo Switch's successor (little to no gimmick, etc.) than believing Nintendo can't be weird and innovative.

I think I said this before, but I believe Nintendo's going to continue having gimmicks with the Nintendo Switch's successor through separate accessories (e.g. Labo, Ring Fit Adventure, etc.).

Same with Switch, they also all wanted a powerful homeconsole (or atleast a vocal minority). People never change.

 

[Lugia667]

so investors seem to want it to be a more radical change or something? And because it isn't it will be another Wii U? I don't get it

 

[kingman]

Um, it’s Pickles actually.



(This reference might be too obscure for most…)

iunderstoodthatreference.gif

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

so investors seem to want it to be a more radical change or something? And because it isn't it will be another Wii U? I don't get it

Investors have the psychological shadow of the wiiu era.

The logic is that the wii succeeded, but the successor wiiu failed; the switch succeeded, and the fear is that the successor will fail like the wiiu.

 

[gonanzir]

when q&a? is it today?what time

 

[Darknut85]

Investors have the psychological shadow of the wiiu era.

I bet the still have nightmares of it. They should consider therapy.

 

[Lugia667]

Feels like they would have freaked out too if Nintendo announced nothing. Seems like a lose-lose situation

 

[ertaboy356b]

I still have to ask, how?

as a way to attach joycons, what way could they apply gameplay mechanics to that

Nintendo will think of something. I mean how did they ever do the multiple switch board game thing, and that was even patented in 2019.

 

[LiC]

so investors seem to want it to be a more radical change or something? And because it isn't it will be another Wii U? I don't get it

I mean, it's Mochizuki saying this. The full article behind the paywall makes no mention of any investor or analyst saying anything remotely like it.

What he's doing is inventing a distinction between "successor" and "generational change" that doesn't exist in reality, but is intended to point out the historical lack of success of some successor consoles compared to predecessors, like the Wii U after the Wii. But that's just arbitrary. The relationship between the Wii U and Wii is no different from the relationship between the Wii and the GameCube; each is the successor to the previous console, and both significantly changed the hardware proposition. So to is the Switch the successor to the Wii U, and the Switch 2 (temp.) the successor to the Switch.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

Feels like they would have freaked out too if Nintendo announced nothing. Seems like a lose-lose situation

Believe it or not, all the "investors" in the world are the most empirical and short-term oriented group of people, and it's a pain in the ass to deal with them, so a decline in investor confidence is entirely predictable.

 

[Lugia667]

Believe it or not, all the "investors" in the world are the most empirical and short-term oriented group of people, and it's a pain in the ass to deal with them, so a decline in investor confidence is entirely predictable.

uhhh we do have one on the board (Well a former one at least) so.......

 

[gonanzir]

ok,Looking at the past q&a, it seems to have dropped at any time on May 8 local time

 

[LiC]

when q&a? is it today?what time

ok,Looking at the past q&a, it seems to have dropped at any time on May 8 local time

The Japanese transcript should be uploaded about 5-8 hours from now. The English one usually comes 2-3 days after that.

 

[Jersh]

I mean, it's Mochizuki saying this. The full article behind the paywall makes no mention of any investor or analyst saying anything remotely like it.

What he's doing is inventing a distinction between "successor" and "generational change" that doesn't exist in reality, but is intended to point out the historical lack of success of some successor consoles compared to predecessors, like the Wii U after the Wii. But that's just arbitrary. The relationship between the Wii U and Wii is no different from the relationship between the Wii and the GameCube; each is the successor to the previous console, and both significantly changed the hardware proposition. So to is the Switch the successor to the Wii U, and the Switch 2 (temp.) the successor to the Switch.

The funniest part about this is that the Wii U's core concept has basically nothing to do with the Wii. It's a "generational change" in every aspect except for maintaining compatibility with Wii Remotes and using Wii branding. The games developed, audience catered to, and imagined user experience are almost nothing alike between the two systems.

I'd personally even argue that the Switch was less of a "generational change" than the Wii U.

 

[LiC]

The funniest part about this is that the Wii U's core concept has basically nothing to do with the Wii. It's a "generational change" in every aspect except for maintaining compatibility with Wii Remotes and using Wii branding. The games developed, audience catered to, and imagined user experience are almost nothing alike between the two systems.

I'd personally even argue that the Switch was less of a "generational change" than the Wii U.

Yeah. As someone who played a number of Wii U games exclusively on the gamepad with my TV off, or switched to it when using the TV for something else, I can attest to similarities in the hardware proposition between the Wii U and Switch, lol.

Also, even when it comes to the controllers... the Wii U deluxe set doesn't even include a Wii Remote. And the Wii was also compatible with GameCube controllers.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

I would like to ask a technical question, can drake's 48 tensor cores theoretically render results comparable to 9th gen consoles (ps5/xsx)?

 

[Aether]

I don't quite get the hype of so many... In my book we don't really know more, and it being announced After march 25 was just not an option.
I also don't see why leakers are now safer...
Whatever they leak is still just as much under NDA.
And we don't have anything new to speculate.
And nobody was honestly expecting Nintendo to stop making new consoles.

Wake me up when we at least have a game or the code name as a basis for speculation.

 

[kingman]

I would like to ask a technical question, can drake's 48 ray tracing cores theoretically render results comparable to 9th gen consoles (ps5/xsx)?

It's actually 12 RT cores (you're mixing those up with the 48 tensor cores), but I asked this question some pages back as well, and was told: yes. Switch 2's raytracing surprisingly enough, should be comparable to the other two.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

It's actually 12 RT cores (you're mixing those up with the 48 tensor cores), but I asked this question some pages back as well, and was told: yes. Switch 2's raytracing surprisingly enough, should be comparable to the other two.

Amended

 

[MuddySeal]

I don't quite get the hype of so many... In my book we don't really know more, and it being announced After march 25 was just not an option.

It had been either radio silence or corp–speak roundabouts till last night... What has so many excited is the fact they finally acknowledged it for the first time — akin to opening the flood gates for further discussion

EDIT: I do agree that we still know barely anything, it’s just the way I personally see it is more along the lines of it being The Beginning in a super enthusiastic way

 

[karmitt]

I don't quite get the hype of so many... In my book we don't really know more, and it being announced After march 25 was just not an option.
I also don't see why leakers are now safer...
Whatever they leak is still just as much under NDA.
And we don't have anything new to speculate.
And nobody was honestly expecting Nintendo to stop making new consoles.

Wake me up when we at least have a game or the code name as a basis for speculation.

This thread has been engrossed in speculation for years around a device that Nintendo, expectedly, has had no interest in acknowledging. Whether foolish or not, several times the thread has held its breath for some kind of announcement of only to have hopes dashed - the 4K device being the OLED Model and the infamous “Cancelled Pro” come to mind.

Perhaps it felt to you like they didn’t have any other choice but to say something here, but I’d gotten pretty jaded on the subject. This is a very hype turning point.

 

[kingman]

It's actually 12 RT cores (you're mixing those up with the 48 tensor cores), but I asked this question some pages back as well, and was told: yes. Switch 2's raytracing surprisingly enough, should be comparable to the other two.

Though if someone wants to explain why this is the case, please feel free to.

 

[gonanzir]

Will there still be switch2 version of hifi rush? It doesn't look good

 

[Stefan51278]

Though if someone wants to explain why this is the case, please feel free to.

Nvidia uses dedicated cores for the big chunks of the computation needed for RT which are very power efficient because they are tailored for this task and this task only. AMD goes brute force and tries to compute the RT-effects on the normal cores. So Nvidia is very power efficient while AMD isn't and Nvidia RT doesn't take much power from regular rendering which AMD's solution does.

 

[Hermii]

Will there still be switch2 version of hifi rush? It doesn't look good

Not betting on it. The best Nintendo can get out of this, is hiring some of the talent now looking for a job.

 

[IamPeacock]

Let's imagine that a March 25 release is still uncertain for Nintendo, is there any reason why they did the announcement yesterday?
Is it purely because of the investors? Couldn't they waited another quarter and be more confident about the release date?

 

[Hermii]

Let's imagine that a March 25 release is still uncertain for Nintendo, is there any reason why they did the announcement yesterday?
Is it purely because of the investors? Couldn't they waited another quarter and be more confident about the release date?

Because staying quiet about it looks more and more ridiculous as leaks are becoming more frequent.

 

[boodream]

I mean, it's Mochizuki saying this. The full article behind the paywall makes no mention of any investor or analyst saying anything remotely like it.

What he's doing is inventing a distinction between "successor" and "generational change" that doesn't exist in reality, but is intended to point out the historical lack of success of some successor consoles compared to predecessors, like the Wii U after the Wii. But that's just arbitrary. The relationship between the Wii U and Wii is no different from the relationship between the Wii and the GameCube; each is the successor to the previous console, and both significantly changed the hardware proposition. So to is the Switch the successor to the Wii U, and the Switch 2 (temp.) the successor to the Switch.

Has he always been so lax or has he become embittered since this pro model thing?

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Wait, sorry I'm still confused. Is the GC's bandwidth for the ARAM 81 mb/sec or 2.6 gb/sec?

The ARAM has a bandwidth of 81MB/s, and the main RAM of the GCN has a bandwidth of 2.6GB/s.

But as I said before I am not quite sure why the focus on the ARAM when that was for the GBA Player for example, or for Audio. And it’s not accessible through normal means, requiring DMA to access rather than the CPU freely having more RAM whenever they felt like it. Its goal was for less critical tasks like the one mentioned above… wait a minute there’s a console right now with an equivalent that does just that… anyway.

Keep in mind this was a direct response to the N64 which had a unified memory architecture.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Nvidia uses dedicated cores for the big chunks of the computation needed for RT which are very power efficient because they are tailored for this task and this task only. AMD goes brute force and tries to compute the RT-effects on the normal cores. So Nvidia is very power efficient while AMD isn't and Nvidia RT doesn't take much power from regular rendering which AMD's solution does.

And TMUs! Though technically both use modified TMUs for this job, what Nvidia has is way more circuitry per RT core to handle a lot of the complex RT tasks. Though, Drake will be GPU limited because it won’t be fast enough.

 

[Darknut85]

Really looking forward to overanalyze the Q&A!

 

[Gotdatmoneyy]

Let's imagine that a March 25 release is still uncertain for Nintendo, is there any reason why they did the announcement yesterday?
Is it purely because of the investors? Couldn't they waited another quarter and be more confident about the release date?

Because yesterday is the report for the end of their fiscal year. They need to outline the plan for the business for the next 12 months. It isn't about nailing down the release date. They don't need to but in the next 12 months if the Switch 1 is going to slow down in preparation for Switch 2 and the financial projections show that, then thry need to communicate what the plan is and the reasoning as well as something to help address natural questions.

They also need to communicate something as major as a new platform if that is going to be revealed so investors can adjust and make decisions. You'll base your valuations on all the things that come out of a year end report. It's important that Nintendo gives clear info about the future even if it isn't detailed.

 

[dillyro]

Let's imagine that a March 25 release is still uncertain for Nintendo, is there any reason why they did the announcement yesterday?
Is it purely because of the investors? Couldn't they waited another quarter and be more confident about the release date?

In addition to the other responses, there's a chance that there were a lot of questions about future hardware during the Q&A with investors, so Nintendo put out the tweet before the Q&A document was uploaded. IMO it has better 'optics' to proactively broadcast the highly anticipated information

 

[Aether]

It had been either radio silence or corp–speak roundabouts till last night... What has so many excited is the fact they finally acknowledged it for the first time — akin to opening the flood gates for further discussion

EDIT: I do agree that we still know barely anything, it’s just the way I personally see it is more along the lines of it being The Beginning in a super enthusiastic way

To me this is just as well corp speek so that they don't really have to engage with the topic but the stock doesn't plummet.

This thread has been engrossed in speculation for years around a device that Nintendo, expectedly, has had no interest in acknowledging. Whether foolish or not, several times the thread has held its breath for some kind of announcement of only to have hopes dashed - the 4K device being the OLED Model and the infamous “Cancelled Pro” come to mind.

Perhaps it felt to you like they didn’t have any other choice but to say something here, but I’d gotten pretty jaded on the subject. This is a very hype turning point.

I'm here since... Switch release (secret pro models being tested with higher clocks... Running fish simulations... ^^"), I was also there when the first 4k pro speculations started, the inflation when OLED came, drake...

To me the question was never if they are working on it, more what is it and when will we get proper leaks. Latelly the question was how long can and will they push it back and will the sales break off by then.

This did not really answer any of that or provided anything. In no world would anything later then H2 2025 be realistic, and it is still just as open.

 

[P4bl0]

They will not launch a console with Prime 4 lmao

PS5 launched with Demon Souls remake lmao

Let me stop you there, there won’t be a 3D Mario or Mario Kart releasing day one.

Yes it will be announced during the console presentation but Nintendo will wait some time that the user base of the new console gets bigger before releasing their magnum opus, like they always did and this time they can rely on 3rd parties to have an impressive launch line up

 

[Darknut85]

PS5 launched with Demon Souls remake lmao

Let me stop you there, there won’t be a 3D Mario or Mario Kart releasing day one.

Yes it will be announced during the console presentation but Nintendo will wait some time that the user base of the new console gets bigger before releasing their magnum opus, like they always did and this time they can rely on 3rd parties to have an impressive launch line up

There won’t be multiple blockbuster at launch of course, but I think we‘ll either get 3D Mario, Mario Kart or another AAA release.

 

[ShadowFox08]

Holy shut I actually woke up to good news.

We might witness one of the best console transition to date.

Switch is now over 140 million and expecting to sell 13.5 million coming into next March, I believe. Now, all it needs to do is beat PS2 in lifetime sales (160 million). I would gladly have Nintendo delay switch 3 release to Q4 2024 to achieve this, and with 8nm Samsung to boot. Cause why not?

Is it just me or does it sound like Buncle is making a joke? "It seems to me that this company Nintendo is making announcements, I wonder if that has anything to do with Nintendo releasing products?"

Watch the multiple model be true.

Switch 2, Switch 2 Pro and Switch Pro MAX at launch. The latter having OLED screen and VRR with better battery life , and the pro max having it all + more storage.

PS5 launched with Demon Souls remake lmao

Let me stop you there, there won’t be a 3D Mario or Mario Kart releasing day one.

Yes it will be announced during the console presentation but Nintendo will wait some time that the user base of the new console gets bigger before releasing their magnum opus, like they always did and this time they can rely on 3rd parties to have an impressive launch line up

They need something for launch to move units though. Can they rely on pokemon az legends?

 

[Steve]

PS5 launched with Demon Souls remake lmao

Let me stop you there, there won’t be a 3D Mario or Mario Kart releasing day one.

Yes it will be announced during the console presentation but Nintendo will wait some time that the user base of the new console gets bigger before releasing their magnum opus, like they always did and this time they can rely on 3rd parties to have an impressive launch line up

Nintendo launch Botw and I would consider that Nintendo magnum opus and most important and culturally significant game Nintendo had released.

Also Sony can make pretty much launch whatever they want as a launch title, compared to Nintendo, that pretty much need possibly one of the most anticipated 3D Mario game they’ve created at launch.

But I can see Nintendo releasing cross-gen Prime 4 and Switch 2 exclusive 3D Mario as launch titles for the Switch 2, since it wouldn’t hurt their sales, because they have the large install of the Switch as well as new audiences who are willing to buy anything for the Switch 2

 

[P4bl0]

They need something for launch to move units though. Can they rely on pokemon az legends?

Bro, the console will be sold out the first months no matter what the units will be moved even without Mario at launch

Mario Kart can easily come Month 2-3 and Mario 3D can come month 7-8

 

[Bonejack]

Other than a new leak by someone, i'd assume not even the full reveal will give any detailed tech info, at least not of the kind that this thread wants. ;D

As for that Necro tweet with the "on-board day one" thirds ... is it bad that when i read Bamco being on that list, i immediately thought "Yeah, we'll see about that one."?

 

[toki98]

the most important thing is a costant flow of games, nintendo needs between 6 and 8 solid releases for the first 12 months. Snipperclips 2 will save us

 

[SoldierDelta]

Other than a new leak by someone, i'd assume not even the full reveal will give any detailed tech info, at least not of the kind that this thread wants. ;D

As for that Necro tweet with the "on-board day one" thirds ... is it bad that when i read Bamco being on that list, i immediately thought "Yeah, we'll see about that one."?

It does seem some minor leaks are pouring out about specific titles, series or companies coming to Switch 2, none that i'd really say are too huge but that's kind of to be expected.

It is nice to be past the "dark ages" of this thread where nothing happened for weeks on end, but the most eventful stages of this console's reveal are yet to come. Especially in terms of tech, that stuff probably isn't going to start pouring out unless:
A: A high-end title is revealed to be coming to Switch 2 (I'm talking Alan Wake 2-levels)
B: A developer fucks up and posts Switch 2 footage early

 

[Danny]

I feel the stock market has internalized dooming regarding Nintendo all the time. That is why Nintendo market cap has not grown enormously in the Switch era while profits have been incredible. It could be because investors are angry at Nintendo for not going more heavily into mobile and GAAS like they want to. Nintendo still wants to focus on dedicated console market which is not exactly what the investors want to see.

And also Nintendo's business strategy of hoarding cash on hand is seen as incredible backwards by Wall Street, where the logic is that you should never hoard cash, but should just use that money to expand aggressively to buy up studios etc. Nintendo's more cautious strategy of slow and steady expansion is not the practice they want to see. I mean Nintendo have an official policy of having zero debt, while taking on debt to expand is what investors think is much more rational.

I prefer Nintendo's more conservative approach to business and think it will serve Nintendo well when bad times come, but the industry standard is ironically more in Microsoft's favour; Buy up studios, expand and then just make massive layoffs when you need to.

Nintendo remains more exposed than Microsoft and Sony in the game industry because the only diversification Nintendo have in their revenue streams separate from console gaming is a few mobile games, merchandise, theme parks and movies, and all those other revenue streams are still in their infancy.

 

[AxkilAvenger]

Other than a new leak by someone, i'd assume not even the full reveal will give any detailed tech info, at least not of the kind that this thread wants. ;D

As for that Necro tweet with the "on-board day one" thirds ... is it bad that when i read Bamco being on that list, i immediately thought "Yeah, we'll see about that one."?

Sega is on the list right?
Their list of games are the only ones I care about being there day one.
I need golden axe so bad it hurts my insides lol

 

[boodream]

Bro, the console will be sold out the first months no matter what the units will be moved even without Mario at launch

Mario Kart can easily come Month 2-3 and Mario 3D can come month 7-8

I can’t imagine for a second that the switch 2 doesn’t have a launch game coinciding with its release. It would make no sense and it would be literally unheard of for them.

PlayStation is not Nintendo,

 

[Bonejack]

It does seem some minor leaks are pouring out about specific titles, series or companies coming to Switch 2, none that i'd really say are too huge but that's kind of to be expected.

It is nice to be past the "dark ages" of this thread where nothing happened for weeks on end, but the most eventful stages of this console's reveal are yet to come. Especially in terms of tech, that stuff probably isn't going to start pouring out unless:
A: A high-end title is revealed to be coming to Switch 2 (I'm talking Alan Wake 2-levels)
B: A developer fucks up and posts Switch 2 footage early

Any hint where i could read up on those minor leaks?

As for "most wanted" info for this thread ... not even the situations you mentioned are that informative. Sure you can definitely take some cues out of those things, but honestly, the thing this thread really wants is a teardown of a retail unit.

And i fear this might take up to the launch phase of the system next year. ^^

Sega is on the list right?
Their list of games are the only ones I care about being there day one.
I need golden axe so bad it hurts my insides lol

The tweet in question is 3 pages back. But yes, SEGA / Atlus are on the list, first entry even.

And, let's be honest, most of the games SEGA and Atlus release cry for a version on a Nintendo platform, not only for Japan. They would be incredibly short-sighted, and i would question their suits, if they weren't fully on-board day 1.

You can argue about thirds like Capcom or Bamco, as they can live without being fully there day one, maybe even SQEX for most projects, but imo, SEGA is not negotiable.

 

[eye0h]

PS5 launched with Demon Souls remake lmao

Let me stop you there, there won’t be a 3D Mario or Mario Kart releasing day one.

Yes it will be announced during the console presentation but Nintendo will wait some time that the user base of the new console gets bigger before releasing their magnum opus, like they always did and this time they can rely on 3rd parties to have an impressive launch line up

Nintendo has more IP to work with than something Demon Souls level. I don't know why people have this idea that Metroid Prime 4 is some huge title, it could very easily not be a smash hit given we are at the end of the lifecycle. Retro Studios is relatively unproven in the Switch Era. Do you honestly believe Nintendo would bet the house on Metroid Prime 4?

In a few months when this thing is revealed and we actually know what the real launch game is metroid fans will be like "I can't believe we actually thought Nintendo would make Metroid, the series that puts up borderline Xenoblade Chronicles numbers their main launch title for the follow-up to the most successful console of all time, not only that but a SPIN OFF". I know saIes between mainline and prime are comparable but still. I mean cross gen makes sense, tons of sense but what makes more sense is MARIO.