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Ideally September so japanese thirds can talk freely at TGS.
Other option would be "just like Switch" in October.
Personally hoping for September though.
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
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Ideally September so japanese thirds can talk freely at TGS.
Other option would be "just like Switch" in October.
Personally hoping for September though.
LukasManak22
who the fuck is that
I mean if he said it includes Switch 2 he would basically confirm it to release this FY, something they haven't said yet.
toki98
#TeamAsSoonAsPossible
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Is august plausible?
Danny
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Yeah my speculation is that Nintendo is aiming for march 2025 but that its still totally open for them to slip into later 2025.
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Well, who am i to say it would be impossible.
But i think it's unlikely. If they were to fully reveal it in that month, they could've shown something at Gamescom instead of not even attending.
Steve
Koopa
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Unlikely, but September and October seems the most likely, because I can see Nintendo recreating the Switch cycle with
- October reveal trailer
- January presentation
- March launch.
Jake
Cappy
I think this is most likely to happen if it’s still planned to release March 2025. If they wait until Q1 2025 for the reveal, then I expect Switch 2 to come in late spring or during the summer.
BreakAtmo
Moblin
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It's not so much about Metroid being a big title or not - I actually think that it being a smaller series makes it work as a launch title because it could get a lot more sales than usual, due to all the new Switch 2 buyers snapping up launch games. Could introduce a chunk more people to the series.
eye0h
"aggressively persue a multiplatform strategy"
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I understand the idea but to me it doesn't make sense for a new games console to support a smaller title rather than a blockbuster to support the release of a new console. There's no way nintendo need metroid prime to sell that bad. That's like next level IP development with nothing but risk.
Aufhebung RPG
History is tragedy becoming comedy
I mean, while my age doesn't support this statement since I'm not a pure old Zelda fan (lmao), let's look at all the Legend of Zelda sales before botw, the highest never crossed the 9million threshold, and of course even then they were more popular than the metroid, but I feel that by making the metroid prime4 a crossover game between switch2 and switch1 the obvious benefit would be to increase its exposure significantly, giving it a chance to become the new "dark horse".
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HankyPanky
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did nobody ask about the software projections? clearly that is a far harder number to reach than the hardware one without the lure of big titles like Zelda TOTK & Mario Wonder the previous year. will be interesting to see what they have lined up...
BreakAtmo
Moblin
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Maybe not in the past, but things have changed IMO. The popularity of consoles and the number of people willing to buy them at launch has ballooned faster than manufacturing capacity has. The PS5 launched with stuff like Demon's Souls Remake while Xbox Series had no exclusives, and they were still impossible to find on shelves for ages - partly due to pandemic stock issues, but it still took until like 20 million PS5s had been sold at full price for things to calm down. This was for a couple of reasons - brand awareness, which Nintendo Switch has in spades, and enhanced BC, which Switch 2 will probably offer. It's likely that all units will sell out immediately, so they don't really need games to sell the system - rather, they should be taking that system's guaranteed success and capitalising on it to sell games. There's a lot of people out there who might not get a Metroid game normally, but will snap up whatever launch titles they can find for their shiny new console.
eye0h
"aggressively persue a multiplatform strategy"
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I just cannot see this happening I don't know what to tell you. The alternatives are just that much better. Nintendo are not desperate for another big new IP they don't need to take this gamble to make metroid big. It just seems like a metroid fans fanfic to me which I get, I'd want them to launch with the next big monolith soft game. I can't think of a more lukewarm way to enter a new generation. It's just a mid plan to me, the majority of people will be confused as to why they didn't launch with mario. It doesn't really matter how good MP4 is either imo.
If this system flops (doubt) one of the big reasons in the retrospectives years from now will be "yeah and for some reason they thought it would be a good idea to launch with prime 4". Knowing all this it's just not reasonable to me for nintendo to choose this option.
RennanNT
Bob-omb
Their most successful systems (read "money printers") were: Switch, DS, Wii, GB and NES. Notice a pattern?
It's not arbitrary. When they have a selling point which has more impact than the selling point of the previous console, they make a new brand.
Let's say there wasn't a Wii U. Should the Switch be named Wii 2 then? No because switching is a bigger selling point and the device is so much more than a better Wii.
But if you have a Wii U, which was just borrowing a lot from the DS on top of the Wii... "Nintendo TV-off" or "Nintendo Async" isn't attracting new audiences, might as well try to maximize retention of the old one.
In other words, Nintendo doesn't believe they have a selling point bigger than the one which is no longer novelty.
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Defining "radical" here, imo only the Wii and the Switch fit this description. As in doing something completely off the "usual" path.
Uncle Squingis
Shriekbat
Nintendo absolutely will not drop Mario and Prime 4 both on launch day when they want to fill out the entire year.
Tentacle-tropes
Kremling
Prime4 has to pass the litmus test of being appealing for audiences outside its own. If it isn’t then being a launch title does little in the long run; and if it is then it won’t matter much where it releases in the first place.
Shoulder
Like Like
YES! I had completely forgotten about that actually, but you're correct!
Fuck me. The Nintendo Switch is insane. Remember the days when we thought the Nintendo Wii printed money? The Nintendo Switch 3D Prints GOLD.
machine translation: "Despite the announcement of the new model, Nintendo's stock price is falling. It is highly likely that the new model will be released after 2025, and it is judged that this fiscal year will be tough. Since Nintendo used the word "successor machine", investors are predicting a development similar to Wii → Wii U, rather than a generational change like Wii → Switch."
If machine translation is to be believed, idk why it is "highly likely after 2025" (I'm thinking mistranslation).
But definitely sounds like a bit of dooming over there.. thinking this would be like Wii -> Wii U
What a baffling thing for investors to think considering this isn't the first time Nintendo have made a console sequel. Feels as though many of these shareholders didn't know the NES, and SNES existed, which while the latter was less popular than the former, much of that had to do with the increased competition of Sega, and soon to be Sony (Atari was already on its way out with the Jaguar)
What I find interesting though is shareholders are worried the successor will just be another Switch, but much improved and more powerful, and they appear to think, "No. We want a revolution. Not an evolution!"
Wonder if any of them own Apple stock, which has rehashed iPhones with simply better internals for years, but consumers eat it up like it's the most expensive candy you've ever bought that they must buy new every year.
Agreed. This business of an "either, or" scenario doesn't make sense to me. A new 3D Mario, AND Metroid Prime 4 could coexist, and quite frankly, should probably happen. hat said, I maintain fully that Prime 4 will be a Cross-gen title, but the differences between the two versions will be more than Resolution, and/or frame rate.
Also, regarding the rest of 2024, makes a perfect opportunity to launch Prime 2 and 3 remastered in time for Prime 4.
We're beating a dead horse on this one, but the Pandemic likely had an effect on Nintendo's plans. Since we know Tegra Drake was taped out somewhere in 2022, Nintendo still would've needed to design the rest of the system around it, plus all the software in the OS, and of course the games themselves. Give it maybe 2 years of product testing, and other R&D to make the system fully complete in both hardware, and software (we'll also assume BC was a targeted feature) That'll put us right into the heart of 2024, and IF March 2025 is the launch date, Nintendo we'll need a good 6 months prior to launch for mass production in time to sell to consumers.
Someone else here can go more in depth, but the timing for better or worse seems to line up.
boodream
Paratroopa
We'll see. It seems to me personally, but I could be wrong, that this approach turns the problem on its head. The user base will grow precisely because people will want to play games available on the new console. Playstation consoles sell games. Nintendo games sell consoles. This is a specificity that seems to me to be fairly well accepted.
darthdiablo
+5 Death Stare
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IMO, it should be more about the whole launch lineup collectively, not just individual games.
I don't think launching Switch 1 with only BOTW would have been a good idea. Not everyone is a LoZ fan, so they had other games included in the launch as well.
Same goes for MP4 - Nintendo's not going to just do MP4 for launch lineup and call it a day. They'll include other games. What about 3D Mario? It has literally been almost 8 years since, they're bound to have new one ready for Switch 2 hopefully.
What a baffling thing for investors to think considering this isn't the first time Nintendo have made a console sequel. Feels as though many of these shareholders didn't know the NES, and SNES existed, which while the latter was less popular than the former, much of that had to do with the increased competition of Sega, and soon to be Sony (Atari was already on its way out with the Jaguar)
What I find interesting though is shareholders are worried the successor will just be another Switch, but much improved and more powerful, and they appear to think, "No. We want a revolution. Not an evolution!"
Wonder if any of them own Apple stock, which has rehashed iPhones with simply better internals for years, but consumers eat it up like it's the most expensive candy you've ever bought that they must buy new every year.
Yeah - majority of those investors probably aren't as nuanced/educated on gaming as we are here. What % of Nintendo investors would we be comfortable with saying they actually know gaming ha?
I really do think their logic was as simple as "Oh noes, this means another Wii -> WiiU", which could still happen but that's not a given/guaranteed thing, it depends largely on how Nintendo markets this, this time around, in contrast with Wii U which it was pretty clear they fumbled/failed to market well.
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Keviaar
Cappy
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There have been talks about how Nintendo will differentiate cartridges between both generations, like with DS and 3DS, but I'm wondering: how will they make box arts different enough so that casual customers instantly see a difference?
I really love the Switch logo with the red and all, but I feel like it has to stand out. Maybe they can make the boxes themselves red, like PS and Xbox have colored boxes. Or maybe they can go with a black logo for a more premium look. They can go back to centered logos, or just flip them around.
I studied graphic design and I love thinking about stuff like this haha. But maybe I'm alone in this.
I really love the Switch logo with the red and all, but I feel like it has to stand out. Maybe they can make the boxes themselves red, like PS and Xbox have colored boxes. Or maybe they can go with a black logo for a more premium look. They can go back to centered logos, or just flip them around.
I studied graphic design and I love thinking about stuff like this haha. But maybe I'm alone in this.
Gotdatmoneyy
Boo
The stock is worth 3x what it was when the Switch launched. You're legit just making this up. Gotta stop with these bullshit conspiracy theories.
I know if you never studied finance or valued a company or portfolio it is not straight forward/doesn't make intuitive sense but the market doesn't have it out for Nintendo. The stock nay be undervalued (depends on a lot of factors, WACC, terminal growth rate, initial 3-7 year projections, baking in sone opinions/interpretations, even more things outside my scope of knowledge) but it wouldn't be massively so at this point in the Switch's life. The stock can only hold this value if Nintendo continues its performance level.
There are reasons to hoard cash, Apple does it and lots of big tech do as an alternative to having to go to the banks when their in a weak position and secure shitty loans. It's not necessarily a sign of bad leadership in an overall sense. It is just that the idea is that cash can't do much anything for the business sitting in an account/bond/security so if you have lots of it on hand that could be invested into +ve NPV projects, why wouldn't you? You have to have a plan to do this obviously and you need to have access to enough capital to run your business with contingency. And also taking on debt to expand the business is a financially sound position but there is a level/point in the curve where the level of debt you have is riskier and more expensive than just equity financing. But having some debt mixed into you capital structure gives access to tax shields and what you pay as interest is way offset by those gains.
Investors are not dumb. Yall not to stop assuming they don't know what they are doing or what they are talking about. They know more about the market and finance than anyone here calling them dumb or fickle.
There is nothing wrong with Nintendo's approach to business. The stock just gets appropriately valued as a company that is conservative in many of their approaches. Nintendo is a pretty reliable type of stock to not hit you with fucked up swings in approach and philosophy as long as you acknowledge they'll miss sometimes on concept. You need a mix of business approaches to have a good market. Some have to swing for the fences, some companies are so risk adverse they actually just hurt their bottom line and approach. This idea of all debt is bad for example is one of those. Lulullemon Athletica is another company that carries no debt. They do fine. Last 5 years the stock has doubled in value. But you can't collectively be 0 debt as a market. It doesn't work for all industries.
They lack diversification but not all diversification is good if you can't use your strategic advantage to generate value in your new streams. You may just end up eroding margins. Sony and MS are conglomerates. Those departments basically run in silos. The company can support itself if other areas flounder but there is only so long they'll put up you it before they start divesting. See MS in thr last 4 years in gaming.
I don't care if people call investors or people operating in the stock market dumb (they aren't, most of the criticism don't even know how any of it works but honestly who gives a fuck) but there is no conspiracy against Nintendo or how they run a business. That's just dumb. If you look at Microsoft or Sony from a purely gaming stance, ever single investor would rather be Nintendo.
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Tentacle-tropes
Kremling
I agree however they’ll definitely need games that have wider appeal to anchor smaller games to. Like what BoTW/Odyssey did for Switch launch. Specifically w/Prime4, if the game is that good such that it is super interesting then it won’t matter much where it launches. If it isn’t then it also won’t really matter either.
carbvan
Chain Chomp
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I'm guessing a different form factor for the boxes. Back to DS-sized game boxes!
kvetcha
hoopy frood
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darthdiablo
+5 Death Stare
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Other than using Switch 2 logo, color other than red would be noticeable. If I were wagering, I don't think they'd go with red again, they have to differentiate it more than just changing elements around in the box art template and using Switch 2 logo. edit: like Carbvan said, they could change game card case dimensions too.
RennanNT
Bob-omb
The Wii and Switch were exceptions in the sense they cut down the accumulated fat rather than just add something to the predecessor, like every other Nintendo system.
But I'm not talking about going radical or off the path. Read the rest of the post, it's all connected. All of them had selling points which was worth saying "this is a brand new product" rather "this is a iteration over our old product".
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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While I think box art will stay essentially the same except for the logo and spine, I will say this. The boxes are wasteful. I know, they're "neat" to collect, but come on. A tiny Game Card in a huge thin plastic box. I think it would be more responsible if Nintendo transitioned to using cardboard. Not cardboard boxes a-la GBA, they could keep the same size and shape if they really like, but it would allow them more flexibility. Thin, hardened cardboard you unfold to find the game inside. Same amount of shelf space, same box art, and given my experience with Nintendo Switch game cases... Comparable durability, those things really can't take a beating the way 3DS game cases could. They could even integrate the protective film like phone boxes have, and instead use a paper pull tab on the right edge.
The concern over durability really wouldn't exist; current game cases are flimsy and the edges are prone to pinching and damaging the box art.
They could, if they want, either shift to a different formfactor, or introduce one for cheaper games, about credit card size. You might have seen such sliding card holders before. You pull down on the bottom of the case and it presents your game out the top, all neat like. This would even further reduce waste, while still being durable (I used one of these things to transport cards, threw it around in my drawers for a year and it's still in a better state than my Kirby and the Forgotten Land case.)
Also I won't be hearing out anyone defending the continued use of wasteful, needless plastic. The plastic of the Game Card is pretty much necessary, though even that could be engineered with a bioplastic. The current game cases' use of plastic is wasteful and downright goche. It's not like it saves money vs. paper either. If Apple can pack a phone entirely in paper, Nintendo can do games.
Small steps in sustainability would be nice headed into a new generation.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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I really don't see them moving away from red. PlayStation didn't move away from blue, after all. Since the introduction of Nintendo's new logo, that isn't just "Nintendo Switch" red, it's "Nintendo" red, and it's a powerful brand. I think I could see a touch of colour added, like the four button colours as four stripes under the logo and on the side, but red is probably here to stay. Red even survived the 3DS to Switch transition, after all.
Proportion wise, again, with other consoles and even DS to 3DS managing fine with the same proportions for their cases, along with the slowly falling physical userbase, I don't see them investing in a new plastic mould design unless it's to majorly save costs (like moving away from plastic altogether).
I think it'll very much be a Switch next, branded like one, and look like one. All my games now will work on it, right? I sure don't want my NEW games slotting into the same collection to look totally out of place.
BreakAtmo
Moblin
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Metroid Prime 4 + enhanced BC + third-party titles would be all they'd need to sell millions. The system isn't going to flop. It's going to be the Switch, one of Nintendo's most successful consoles ever, but massively more powerful. As long as it's not $499 or something, it will do incredibly well regardless of what they launch it with. Now, they would absolutely want to market a large number of major first-party exclusives right from the reveal (even the Xbox Series kicked off its marketing campaign with Hellblade II), but having them at launch would not be critical.
I don't think this actually will happen - Nintendo is far too conservative and stuck in their ways for that, and the delay is pretty clearly about them building up a big, polished launch lineup - but they absolutely could.
Danny
Like Like
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3D Mario makes total sense as a launch game. Mario Odyssey came out the first year of the Switch and its still selling millions of copies every year. Mario is perfect for evergreen sales that can continue for the duration of the Switch 2 generation, even if it is released day 1 of the Switch 2.
Future Boy Nemo
Daydream Believer
Keep the same case dimensions but Switch™ from portrait orientation to landscape. Even keep the cases literally the same, just with the art printed sideways, so the spines still align on shelves with OG Switch games, and it opens from the bottom like a checkbook.
Or change to cardboard boxes like @Concernt said, maaaaaybe with a tiny plastic case like an SD card holder inside to alleviate the fears of worrywarts. Would still be less than a tenth the plastic their packaging uses today, which while imperfect would still be a win.
OctoSplattack
Chain Chomp
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No. No 3D Mario at March 2025 launch. Donkey Kong.
...Not sure why I typed it like that, but yeah, I think the rumored DK game could be good for launch if it exists, while 3D Mario takes the October holiday slot like Odyssey and Wonder did.
...Not sure why I typed it like that, but yeah, I think the rumored DK game could be good for launch if it exists, while 3D Mario takes the October holiday slot like Odyssey and Wonder did.
LiC
Member
Nah, this is arbitrary, and based entirely on hindsight. The Wii U example in particular is whack as "a concept not worthy of a new brand."
PatrykPrime
Dedede Fan
If we're talking box art for Switch 2 game cases, there is no doubt that they will keep using red but having it being the primary color again maybe isn't the best idea. Looking at PlayStation and Xbox box art over the years, I will guess that they will either have a mix of red and a different color or use a different main color with splashes of red.
eye0h
"aggressively persue a multiplatform strategy"
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Never argued that they couldn't launch with anything. Was weighing up options.
Hosermess
Koopa
This. Not that I think they will (nor do I really want them to) call it the Super Switch (not that I would hate it), but they could just do what they did with the Super Nintendo game boxes. Though, if they do this plus the coloured buttons theory, they may as well just call it that.
casualreader
Octorok
That would be fantasticb indeed agree on all accounts and, if I may, also would probably be less costly to produce, ship, and store.
Personally I would also love that at some point the set of standard material, eg charger and dock, stay the same so no need to keep or worse, throw away all these electronic pieces.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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Samsung is 20% of an entire developed economy; their production capacity is larger than most nations.
kasparov77
Bob-omb
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LiC
Member
Machine translated:
So yeah, Furukawa was specifically avoiding commenting on the nature of the hardware here, and it was inaccurate to translate his wording as "Switch next model" and then to use that to claim he had confirmed its similarity to the Switch. We all expect something similar to the Switch, but it's still important to know whether Furukawa actually confirmed that, and he didn't.
This is also where Mochizuki got the "successor is different from new generation" thing in his head, but (a) you'll note that the phrasing used here is actually from two specific past announcements, not just trying to make an arbitrary distinction, and (b) the negative implication of "successor" which Mochizuki tried to invent isn't anywhere in the question. This investor was just trying to find out based on language lawyering whether the new console will be similar to the Switch -- which is still kind of dumb because no, of course "successor" doesn't imply anything one way or the other -- and if anything I would say investors would be reassured if Furukawa did confirm they were planning a bigger and badder Switch. Mochizuki just turned it into something investors, plural, are concerned about. In reality I think it's pretty obvious that the decline in share price is because Nintendo confirmed the console won't be out in 2024 and people are skeptical that Nintendo will hit its already declining targets. But Mochizuki has a serious projection problem.
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darthdiablo
+5 Death Stare
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edit: Not for me IMHO. the appeal seems rather limited?
Spend a day besting my own personal best, until I cannot go any further. Then there's not much value in the game beyond that? Am I thinking about this wrong?
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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I can't believe we got acknowledgment of the Switch next before NWC:NESE.
Hosermess
Koopa
The only thing related to what he put in his tweet is one sentence in the bottom 5th of the article: But the firm’s history offers a cautionary tale: A decade earlier, the Wii U failed to carry on the success of the Wii, another of Nintendo’s biggest hits.
The rest of the article has legit and relevant stuff like:
- operating income to fall a bigger-than-expected 24%
- target to sell 13.5 million units of the Switch this fiscal year “looks challenging ahead of the release of a next-gen console
- lost significant ground to a resurgent Sony Group Corp. with its PlayStation 5 over the past year
- For the March quarter, the company reported a bigger-than-expected 31% decline in operating profit to ¥64.5 billion
- and of course a quote from Serkan Toto
So he definitely editorialized in his tweet. But the article is just kind of the usual stuff and nothing worth getting worked up about.
Noleth
xenoblade brainrot
I think at best, we'll be getting Metroid Prime 4 as the holiday title and MAYBE Fire Emblem 4 Remake. But outside of that, I'm pretty sure those will be the final two "major" Switch games.
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