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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Reader mode
eye0h said:
Nintendo has more IP to work with than something Demon Souls level. I don't know why people have this idea that Metroid Prime 4 is some huge title. Retro Studios is relatively unproven in the Switch Era. Do you honestly believe Nintendo would bet the house on Metroid Prime 4?

In a few months when this thing is revealed and we actually know what the real launch game is metroid fans will be like "I can't believe we actually thought Nintendo would make Metroid, the series that puts up borderline Xenoblade Chronicles numbers their main launch title for the follow-up to the most successful console of all time, not only that but a SPIN OFF". I mean cross gen makes sense, tons of sense but what makes more sense is MARIO.
Click to expand...
i mean, you can have mario and metroid as launch titles, imagine metroid prime 4 in place of things like 1-2 switch. I'd say is a perfect opportunity to make an exploit and try to expand metroid fan base.
 
Thing is, it's not either the new 3D Mario or Metroid Prime 4.

Ideally, it's both.

Main flagship game would be Mario, of course. Being a ReDraketed exclusive. Aka the game for "everyone", a game you would buy a console for.
The smaller game in this case would be Metroid Prime. For the fans, the enthusiasts, the "core". Doesn't need that much focus due to also being available on Switch 1.

Add one or two smaller, maybe digital-only games and Nintendo is set for the first two months.
 
eye0h said:
Nintendo has more IP to work with than something Demon Souls level. I don't know why people have this idea that Metroid Prime 4 is some huge title. Retro Studios is relatively unproven in the Switch Era. Do you honestly believe Nintendo would bet the house on Metroid Prime 4?

In a few months when this thing is revealed and we actually know what the real launch game is metroid fans will be like "I can't believe we actually thought Nintendo would make Metroid, the series that puts up borderline Xenoblade Chronicles numbers their main launch title for the follow-up to the most successful console of all time, not only that but a SPIN OFF". I mean cross gen makes sense, tons of sense but what makes more sense is MARIO.
Click to expand...

I never said that MP4 would be the only title at launch, so "betting the house on MP4" is extreme

Mario doesn't make sense in a transitional period because the user base of the console on the first month would be low (let's say 2-3 million on Switch 2 and the rest still be on the Switch)

Only a handful of early adopters will get the Switch 2 at launch, Mario is aiming the family not the scalpers

Some are acting like the console will sit on shelves if there is no 3D Mario and that's quite funny
 
toki98 said:
the most important thing is a costant flow of games, nintendo needs between 6 and 8 solid releases for the first 12 months. Snipperclips 2 will save us
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I don't think we'll have to worry. While the Switch 1's launch year lineup was kind of "duct-tape and string"-y at points, it was an excellent launch year with lots of variety in spite of Nintendo's state after the Wii U's massive failure. I think Nintendo is really going full throttle into this device with quality titles.
Bonejack said:
Any hint where i could read up on those minor leaks?
Click to expand...
They're sadly rather scattered. There's stuff like Necro's "immediate support" list with Square, EA, KT etc., Centro's "3 pokemon games", Brazil mentioning that third-parties will start spilling the beans soon, and that some smaller developers revealing stuff, but there's not a great "all in one" list annoyingly.
Bonejack said:
As for "most wanted" info for this thread ... not even the situations you mentioned are that informative. Sure you can definitely take some cues out of those things, but honestly, the thing this thread really wants is a teardown of a retail unit.

And i fear this might take up to the launch phase of the system next year. ^^
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The main reason why I brought them up is that I believed you could see specific techniques or software applications in use in those titles that would be supported on Switch. If there was a 30fps1080p RT Alan Wake 2 showcase that'd do a lot of explaining... but yeah i doubt it'd be that informative overall. Womp womp.
Anyway, we're slowly moving forward through this year, so let's just be patient for now. The hard part is over, we just have to enjoy the gradual spill of information as it comes.
 
toki98 said:
i mean, you can have mario and metroid as launch titles, imagine metroid prime 4 in place of things like 1-2 switch. I'd say is a perfect opportunity to make an exploit and try to expand metroid fan base.
Click to expand...
I think it launches on Switch 1 first then gets an enhanced next gen port for the launch of Switch 2. I just think there's a chance it loses sales potential next to mario so it'd be better to release it earlier first idk. My main disagreement is the sentiment that Nintendo would try and make Metroid Prime 4 have a Botw moment.
 
Bonejack said:
Thing is, it's not either the new 3D Mario or Metroid Prime 4.

Ideally, it's both.

Main flagship game would be Mario, of course. Being a ReDraketed exclusive. Aka the game for "everyone", a game you would buy a console for.
The smaller game in this case would be Metroid Prime. For the fans, the enthusiasts, the "core". Doesn't need that much focus due to also being available on Switch 1.

Add one or two smaller, maybe digital-only games and Nintendo is set for the first two months.
Click to expand...
Tbh, the main thing I'm expecting is a new Mario Kart sooner than later. MK8 sold a comedic amount, Nintendo would legitimately be stupid if they didn't capitalize on that sort of success with a Mario Kart sequel within the first few months of the Switch 2's life. I think it releasing a month of two after launch would do wonders, especially for the holiday season that year.
 
Hermii said:
Not betting on it. The best Nintendo can get out of this, is hiring some of the talent now looking for a job.
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Hi Fi Rush seems to be the kind of game Nintendo would be happy to make with that kind of artstyle and everything. Would not be suprised if they hire a few devs from Tango this year.
 
eye0h said:
I think it launches on Switch 1 first then gets an enhanced next gen port for the launch of Switch 2. I just think there's a chance it loses sales potential next to mario so it'd be better to release it earlier first idk. My main disagreement is the sentiment that Nintendo would try and make Metroid Prime 4 have a Botw moment.
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Why not? it seems to me nintendo is spending money on this game, for how much time it has been in development? 8 years a this point? i don't think the game can sell as good as botw but a good-looking, well made game can do wonders during the first year of a console where games are few and competition for people money is less
 
toki98 said:
Why not? it seems to me nintendo is spending money on this game, for how much time it has been in development? 8 years a this point? i don't think the game can sell as good as botw but a good-looking, well made game can do wonders during the first year of a console where games are few and competition for people money is less
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The actual development to date should be close to five years, and since it's not an open-world game, you can count on having a very ample amount of development time
 
0
toki98 said:
Why not? it seems to me nintendo is spending money on this game, for how much time it has been in development? 8 years a this point? i don't think the game can sell as good as botw but a good-looking, well made game can do wonders during the first year of a console where games are few and competition for people money is less
Click to expand...
Because metroid as a series hasn't ever broken 4 million sales and they're about to launch the successor to the most successful console of all time. Seems like an unecessary move to make. This is also Furukawas first launch, I feel like he'd make the more reserved play rather than do something that 'bold'.

I do think this will be the most successful metroid game but I just don't see as the best option at all.
 
IamPeacock said:
Let's imagine that a March 25 release is still uncertain for Nintendo, is there any reason why they did the announcement yesterday?
Is it purely because of the investors? Couldn't they waited another quarter and be more confident about the release date?
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Probably multiple reasons but among them I imagine Nintendo is gonna be in contact with more and more third party partners development (for wider devkit distribution) and hardware wise (for accessories) over the next few months so even if full production of the hardware hasn't started yet, more leaks are unavoidable so they might as well have some control over the messaging of the new device.

And from a financial perspective I imagine there might some pressure from shareholders to know what's Nintendo future beyond the current iteration of the Switch especially since there has been no rumors about even a new refresh like oled.

Finally the launch for the device must be fairly narrow which is why they're probably confident speaking about in any official capacity (so for example march - may might be what they're currently debating internally)
 
KarlRemarx said:
I think I'll trust the process, given that the other option is: a deranged hodgepodge of variously believing and/or not believing reliable reporting (often from the same source), just to fill hours doom-mongering and panicking about why exactly the marketing campaign for a console hasn't started 10 months before release, which is apparently past some arbitrary point when you're supposed to have done that. That way madness lies.
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Wow, who could have guessed that trusting the process would be vindicated. Boy I sure hope people aren't doing anything silly like stretching translation to its breaking point to find some new angle to doom about.
 
eye0h said:
Because metroid as a series hasn't ever broken 4 million sales and they're about to launch the successor to the most successful console of all time. Seems like an unecessary move to make. This is also Furukawas first launch, I feel like he'd make the more reserved play rather than do something that 'bold'.

I do think this will be the most successful metroid game but I just don't see as the best option at all.
Click to expand...
while your point is reasonable i'm pretty sure metroid as broke 4 million sales as a series, if you mean with a single game ok but the whole series should be well past 4 million copies. We will probably know something more next month, at least regarding prime 4
 
Last edited:
One thing that needs to be discussed is WHY the switch 2 was delayed. It does matter if we are talking about release timing and expectations. Of course nobody has any real evidence so its all speculation but can we find informed speculation?

My list of possibilities:

  • Chip availability/affordability
  • Hardware tech from Nvidia availability
  • UI development issues (including BC)

Lower percentage possibilities:

  • Desire for higher than normal stock at launch
  • Software development issues and/or availability
  • Manufacturing lane availability/affordability
  • Yen/inflation crisis (A crashed Yen could be a REAL problem in 2 months)
  • Geopolitics crisis
  • Competition releasing devices this fall


This thing has been in active development and even supposedly close to release since 2022 so how can they have internal software or UI issues at this point? Not only that but the design is iterative thus making supposed development time less for the hardware. Manufacturing lanes don't seem too bogged up either. They could've easily put this into production now and had an epic amount of stock for September or November.

I kind of want to place the blame squarely on Nvidia but this is just a logic guess at this point.
 
Shareholder Chad said:
One thing that needs to be discussed is WHY the switch 2 was delayed. It does matter if we are talking about release timing and expectations. Of course nobody has any real evidence so its all speculation but can we find informed speculation?

My list of possibilities:

  • Chip availability/affordability
  • Hardware tech from Nvidia availability
  • UI development issues (including BC)

Lower percentage possibilities:

  • Desire for higher than normal stock at launch
  • Software development issues and/or availability
  • Manufacturing lane availability/affordability
  • Yen/inflation crisis (A crashed Yen could be a REAL problem in 2 months)
  • Geopolitics crisis
  • Competition releasing devices this fall


This thing has been in active development and even supposedly close to release since 2022 so how can they have internal software or UI issues at this point? Not only that but the design is iterative thus making supposed development time less for the hardware. Manufacturing lanes don't seem too bogged up either. They could've easily put this into production now and had an epic amount of stock for September or November.

I kind of want to place the blame squarely on Nvidia but this is just a logic guess at this point.
Click to expand...

I think the common speculation is that the delay is software related.
 
toki98 said:
while your point his reasonable i'm pretty sure metroid as broke 4 million sales as a series, if you mean with a single game ok but the whole series should be well past 4 million copies. We will probably know something more next month, at least regarding prime 4
Click to expand...
Yeah I wrote that out wrong. I meant no metroid series game has individually hit 4 million, I'm on like 3 hours of sleep lol. I'm excited to see what Retro have been making and I hope nintendo can position it to be enough of a success that it supports switch 2.
 
Nintendo launched Switch with games like Super Bomberman, 1-2 Switch etc. Really only Breath of the wild was a major launch title, the new 3D Mario game is probably filling that role for Switch 2 this time. So i don't see why Metroid Prime could not be a secondary launch title, it would be a bigger secondary launch title than anything Switch 1 had at launch for instance.
 
Shareholder Chad said:
One thing that needs to be discussed is WHY the switch 2 was delayed. It does matter if we are talking about release timing and expectations. Of course nobody has any real evidence so its all speculation but can we find informed speculation?

My list of possibilities:

  • Chip availability/affordability
  • Hardware tech from Nvidia availability
  • UI development issues (including BC)

Lower percentage possibilities:

  • Desire for higher than normal stock at launch
  • Software development issues and/or availability
  • Manufacturing lane availability/affordability
  • Yen/inflation crisis (A crashed Yen could be a REAL problem in 2 months)
  • Geopolitics crisis
  • Competition releasing devices this fall


This thing has been in active development and even supposedly close to release since 2022 so how can they have internal software or UI issues at this point? Not only that but the design is iterative thus making supposed development time less for the hardware. Manufacturing lanes don't seem too bogged up either. They could've easily put this into production now and had an epic amount of stock for September or November.

I kind of want to place the blame squarely on Nvidia but this is just a logic guess at this point.
Click to expand...
I don't think software development issues is as unlikely as your saying. They want to polish the hell out of those killer apps, that will continue to sell the whole lifecycle of the console.
 
Bonejack said:
I think the common speculation is that the delay is software related.
Click to expand...
My problem is that for modern game development a six month delay doesn't carry absolute development time, and I don't subscribe to the notion that delays are due to software, I think there is a correlation with hardware availability.

But this is all just assuming that the switch2 does go through a "delayed" schedule for Nintendo.I have my doubts about that.
 
Shareholder Chad said:
One thing that needs to be discussed is WHY the switch 2 was delayed. It does matter if we are talking about release timing and expectations. Of course nobody has any real evidence so its all speculation but can we find informed speculation?

My list of possibilities:

  • Chip availability/affordability
  • Hardware tech from Nvidia availability
  • UI development issues (including BC)

Lower percentage possibilities:

  • Desire for higher than normal stock at launch
  • Software development issues and/or availability
  • Manufacturing lane availability/affordability
  • Yen/inflation crisis (A crashed Yen could be a REAL problem in 2 months)
  • Geopolitics crisis
  • Competition releasing devices this fall


This thing has been in active development and even supposedly close to release since 2022 so how can they have internal software or UI issues at this point? Not only that but the design is iterative thus making supposed development time less for the hardware. Manufacturing lanes don't seem too bogged up either. They could've easily put this into production now and had an epic amount of stock for September or November.

I kind of want to place the blame squarely on Nvidia but this is just a logic guess at this point.
Click to expand...
My humble opinion: the software was not where they wanted it to be, the sales of switch was far better then they really expected, so they had the option to still release it or push it out more for a better fleshed out release with more stable software, and the yen/geopolitical situation gave them the push to do it)
 
Nintendo tried launching a system with no banger launch title to make room for third parties to shine before.

It failed, and they felt the need to slash the price and apologise to everyone with free GBA games.

I fully expect Switch 2 to launch with something big and exclusive from Nintendo themselves.
 
Shareholder Chad said:
One thing that needs to be discussed is WHY the switch 2 was delayed. It does matter if we are talking about release timing and expectations. Of course nobody has any real evidence so its all speculation but can we find informed speculation?

My list of possibilities:

  • Chip availability/affordability
  • Hardware tech from Nvidia availability
  • UI development issues (including BC)

Lower percentage possibilities:

  • Desire for higher than normal stock at launch
  • Software development issues and/or availability
  • Manufacturing lane availability/affordability
  • Yen/inflation crisis (A crashed Yen could be a REAL problem in 2 months)
  • Geopolitics crisis
  • Competition releasing devices this fall


This thing has been in active development and even supposedly close to release since 2022 so how can they have internal software or UI issues at this point? Not only that but the design is iterative thus making supposed development time less for the hardware. Manufacturing lanes don't seem too bogged up either. They could've easily put this into production now and had an epic amount of stock for September or November.

I kind of want to place the blame squarely on Nvidia but this is just a logic guess at this point.
Click to expand...
If the accessory manufacturer stuff from a few weeks ago are to be believed, it was because software isn't ready.
 
It seems they are not having supply issues from some components (answer 5 from QA). Obviously we need to wait for a proper translation.
 
Investor Q/A May 2024 Google translation

Q1

I would like to know your thoughts on development resources for game software. It is said that they will announce the software lineup for the second half of 2024 through Nintendo Direct in June, but looking at the lineup for the first half of this year, it seems that the lineup is weaker than usual. Are most of the development resources already being devoted to the successor to the Nintendo Switch? I would also like to know your strategy for expanding development resources over the long term.

A1

Representative Director and President Shuntaro Furukawa:

Since it takes years to prepare a successor to Nintendo Switch, it is true that software development resources need to be considered from various aspects. We are continuing to develop software for Nintendo Switch, so please look forward to the Nintendo Direct scheduled for June for information on the future software lineup.

Additionally, over the past few years, we have continued to expand our development resources through new graduate recruitment and mid-career recruitment. In order to increase the value of our IP from a long-term perspective and continue to offer unique entertainment, we will continue to proactively secure the necessary development resources. There are ways to expand our development resources, such as M&A, but first we need to thoroughly understand the Nintendo brand within our company, and work with the developers who have built our brand over the years to develop human resources who will be responsible for Nintendo's future development. I am thinking of continuing to do so. Additionally, many of our external development partners have a deep understanding of our way of thinking and game development methods through years of collaboration, so we would like to further deepen our collaboration with them. We believe that it is inevitable that game development will become longer, more complex, and more sophisticated in the future, but our lifeline is to offer new and unique proposals to our customers through game development, so we will continue to invest, including investment. We will actively work to expand our development resources.

02

If the expected hardware sales volume for the current fiscal year (ending March 2025) does not include the successor model of Nintendo Switch, the decline compared to the previous fiscal year (ending March 2024) will seem small. Do you think that even if you announce a successor model, the momentum of the Nintendo Switch business will not be affected?

A2

Furukawa:

The expected sales volume for the current fiscal year does not include the successor model of Nintendo Switch.

Although sales of the Nintendo Switch hardware have remained relatively strong, it is now eight years since its release.

As a result, we recognize that it is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain momentum as time passes. Despite this, during last year's year-end sales season, we were able to get many new customers, including children and families, to pick up Nintendo Switch, especially overseas. In addition to releasing new titles during the current fiscal year, we believe that we will continue to be able to generate new demand, as ``The Super Mario Bros. Movie'' has been viewed by many people through various means since its theatrical release. Furthermore, although a lot of software has already been released for the Nintendo Switch, if we can properly promote the appeal of classic titles like this, we can increase the number of titles in the home created by the unique value of the Nintendo Switch. We believe we can still pursue demand for machines.

We do not believe that the announcement of a successor model or the release of related future information will have any impact on Nintendo Switch sales, but we would like to maintain a good balance between new demand and demand for multiple units this fiscal year and maximize unit sales. That's what I think. Although it will not be easy to achieve our forecast hardware sales volume of 13.5 million units for the full year, we have set this forecast at the beginning of the fiscal year with the desire to take on the challenge of achieving it.

03

Please tell us about the relationship between the use of cash on hand and the successor to the Nintendo Switch, which was mentioned in previous management policy briefings. At the management policy briefing session held in November last year, the existence of a successor model had not been announced, so I think it was difficult to explain how the use of cash on hand was related to the successor model, but in reality, the successor model had already been announced at that time. Was the amount of money taken into consideration? Furthermore, within the use of cash on hand, the ``foundation for maintaining and expanding relationships with customers'' area includes initiatives for Nintendo Account. Will Nintendo Accounts continue to be used for successor models?

A3 Furukawa:

Regarding the use of cash on hand, we are considering or already implementing various initiatives in the areas of `accumulation of software assets'' and `foundation for maintaining and expanding relationships with customers.'' However, the development of a successor to Nintendo Switch is an investment we have made as part of our normal business activities. Therefore, investment in successor models is not the main use of cash on hand.

Regarding "accumulation of software assets," investment in video content, which is entertainment other than games, is currently taking precedence, but in the future, new investment related to games will occur, and as a result, investments related to successor models will increase. There is a possibility that it will come.

Furthermore, the ``foundation for maintaining and expanding relationships with customers'' includes improving the customer experience centered on Nintendo Accounts and creating new added value. Nintendo Systems Co., Ltd., which was established as a joint venture with A, is introduced as an example of the use of cash on hand. Nintendo Account has been in place since before the release of Nintendo Switch in order to maintain long-term relationships with customers across hardware generations, and we will continue to use it for successor models as well.

04
I think one major change in the Nintendo Switch lifecycle is that digital sales have grown significantly. After looking back at the progress and contribution of the digital business to the company's results to date, please tell us what expectations you have for the digital business in the life cycle of the successor to Nintendo Switch.

A4 Furukawa:

As you pointed out, the expansion of the scale of the digital business can be cited as one of the major changes since the release of Nintendo Switch. In the previous fiscal year, sales from Nintendo Switch Online and additional content such as `Pokémon Scarlet and Violet,'' Mario Kart 8 Deluxe,'' and `Splatoon 3'' were strong, as well as the weaker yen. Yes, digital sales and digital sales ratio increased.
Our basic policy is not to simply increase the ratio of digital sales, but to maximize sales of game software, including sales of packaged software, and this policy will remain unchanged in the future.

Under these circumstances, we need to increase convenience for both customers who play the packaged version of the software and customers who play the downloaded version, and we hope to continue to make further improvements and innovations in the future. . Compared to when Nintendo Switch was released in 2017, digitalization has progressed in many aspects of our lives. As the convenience of digital content continues to improve in the future, we currently believe that an increasing number of customers will choose digital products for successor models, just as they did for Nintendo Switch.

05

Regarding hardware sales volume, the forecast for the current fiscal year of 13.5 million units seems to be a fairly high target considering the sales situation in the fourth quarter of the previous fiscal year. Are you considering measures to achieve this? In addition, regarding the supply of hardware, the Company has previously mentioned that when releasing new hardware, it would like to produce and ship a quantity that can meet customer demand from the perspective of preventing resale. Considering the recent improvement in the semiconductor market situation, it seems likely that the successor model to Nintendo Switch will be able to ship a certain amount to meet demand from the time of its release.

A5 Furukawa:

As with the previous fiscal year, we have set a slightly high expected sales volume for hardware at the beginning of the fiscal year, so we recognize that it will not be easy to achieve based on recent sales conditions. In the previous fiscal year, hardware sales picked up due to the success of `The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom'' and the movie `The Super Mario Bros. Movie,'' so we ended up achieving sales of 15 million yen, which we had expected at the beginning of the fiscal year. Sales exceeded the sales mark of 15.7 million units. In order to sell the number of Nintendo Switch hardware that we expected this fiscal year, we will need to implement a variety of measures. During last year's year-end sales season, in addition to selling hardware bundled with software, we made proposals that would make customers want to buy a second unit. In the current fiscal year, we hope to bring sales volume closer to 13.5 million units through various initiatives.

Regarding the supply of the successor model to Nintendo Switch, we have not yet talked about the release timing, so we cannot give a specific answer, but at this point there is no shortage of supply of semiconductor parts, etc., as there was until the year before last. We do not anticipate that the supply of such products will become a major problem when a successor model is released.

Q6

Is there any special intention in referring to the successor model of Nintendo Switch as a "successor model"? Looking back at past hardware announcements, the WiiU was described as a `successor to the Wii,'' and the Nintendo Switch was described as a `game console with a completely new concept.'' This time, the expression "successor to the Nintendo Switch" indicates an intention to inherit the gameplay and concept of the Nintendo Switch. Also, it is said that there will be a follow-up report during this period, but at that time, there will also be an explanation regarding the release timing and specifications.


A6 Furukawa:

There is nothing more we can say about the successor to the Nintendo Switch at this stage. For today's announcement, we decided that it would be best to use the expression "successor to the Nintendo Switch," so we decided to use this expression.
As with past announcements of new hardware, we will be disseminating future information in stages in preparation for release.

Q7
The forecast for operating income for the current fiscal year has been announced to be 400 billion yen, and the fact that this amount of money can be expected at a time when Nintendo is almost in the transition period for hardware suggests that Nintendo has been able to raise its base profit level. It also looks like I remember that before the release of the Nintendo Switch, there was a time when the market expected operating income of over 100 billion yen, a `Nintendo-like profit.'' I believe that many things have changed in the seven years since the release of the Nintendo Switch, but I would like to hear from President Furukawa about the level of `Nintendo-like profits'' that you currently consider.

A7 Furukawa:

I am aware that many people previously expected that Nintendo's ability to generate an annual operating income of 100 billion yen would be a typical Nintendo earnings structure. However, at this time, we have not provided any specific amounts regarding ``Nintendo-like profits''.

The operating income forecast of 400 billion yen announced today is based on the assumption that the expected hardware sales volume is a number set with some enthusiasm. Also. The same idea applies to software. Therefore, if the number of software units sold is significantly lower than expected, operating income of 400 billion yen is not a figure that can be easily achieved. We announced these numbers at the beginning of the fiscal year with the enthusiasm of taking on the challenge of achieving our sales plans.

During this fiscal year, it will be extremely important for us to maintain the momentum of the Nintendo Switch business by implementing various sales measures for hardware and announcing new titles for software. Masu. In addition, we plan to disseminate information to customers through a variety of initiatives other than dedicated game consoles. For example, through initiatives such as the Nintendo Museum, which is scheduled to open in the fall of 2024, we will not only expand the Nintendo Switch business, but also

I believe this is a year in which it will be important to maintain the momentum of our business as a whole.

At the same time, this fiscal year will be the year in which preparations for a successor to Nintendo Switch begin in earnest, and we believe that it is most important to maintain the momentum of Nintendo Switch while also preparing for a later-reduced model. Rather than focusing too much on a single year's profit level, we have positioned this year as a year in which we will prepare for the future of our company, achieve sustainable growth, and work to improve our corporate value over the long term.

Q8
I believe that ``The Super Mario Bros. Movie'' was able to expand awareness of Nintendo IP even in regions where Nintendo Switch is not sold, which was a very effective step in IP development efforts. We understand that movies take a long time to produce and the investment is huge. Is there a possibility that the company will aim to expand the number of people exposed to Nintendo IP through smaller-scale video content such as anime and short videos?

A8 Furukawa:

In the previous fiscal year, despite a decline in sales volumes for both hardware and software, we were able to maintain overall business momentum through initiatives aimed at expanding the number of people exposed to Nintendo IP. Although the depreciation of the yen was a contributing factor, we believe that the impact of movies was a huge factor in the increase in sales and profits.

Beyond their impact on business results, movies play a major role in expanding the number of people exposed to Nintendo IP. ``The Super Mario Bros. Movie'' continues to be viewed by even more people through video distribution services, even after its theatrical release. Movies are yours for our games.


We believe that this is a very effective measure to get people interested, and as we have already announced, we will continue to work on film production in the future.

In addition, Nintendo Pictures Co., Ltd., which became a subsidiary in 2022, is engaged in a variety of initiatives not only in so-called feature-length films but also in the video business in general. Similar to game development, our basic policy for video content is to release it when we have created something interesting that we are satisfied with, so the production team will continue to go through trial and error to create something new and challenging. I hope to be able to tell you more about it when it is completed.

Q9
We believe that the number of annual players is an important indicator for Nintendo. Even though sales of Nintendo Switch hardware have peaked, this indicator has continued to grow since you began disclosing it. Do you expect this number to decline in the current fiscal year? Also, will the number of annual players continue to be an important indicator that Nintendo should pay attention to even after the release of a successor model to the Nintendo Switch?

A9 Furukawa:

The number of "Annual Play Users", which is one of the important indicators for our company, is the most recent (April 2023 to 2024).

In March), there were more than 123 million people, an increase compared to the previous year and the highest ever. In 2023, new titles such as `The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom'' and `Super Mario Bros. Wonder'' recorded large sales, giving many people the opportunity to pick up and play Nintendo Switch. The number of "players" has also increased. Software that creates such opportunities

I think one of the keys to our future will be how much we can offer our customers the following.

This fiscal year will be more about maintaining the momentum of the Nintendo Switch business than expanding it, so we would like to maintain the number of annual players as high as possible for the future. I am. As we continue to develop the dedicated game machine business that integrates hardware and software, we are focusing on whether customers who purchase our hardware continue to play games from a long-term perspective. It is extremely important for the healthy growth of our business that our software be activated and played on various occasions, such as Christmas and birthdays, when people often gather together.

I think it's important. Therefore, we believe that the number of users who have played the game in the last 12 months (the number of open users) will continue to be an important indicator.
 
from the q&a (translate via ai):
  • The 13.5 million projected are Sw1tch only
  • it seems nintendo want to push sales using the large number of classic titles published on the switch (nintendo selects return?)
  • nintendo doesn't think the supply of semiconductor will be a problem for 2witch launch
 
Aufhebung RPG said:
My problem is that for modern game development a six month delay doesn't carry absolute development time, and I don't subscribe to the notion that delays are due to software, I think there is a correlation with hardware availability.

But this is all just assuming that the switch2 does go through a "delayed" schedule for Nintendo.I have my doubts about that.
Click to expand...

I think Nintendo should know that unless they mass produce for a veeeery long time, they simply won't have enough stock to cover 100% of the demand.
They need to have a reasonable amount of launch stock and call it a day.

I hope they're not trying to fix problems they simply can't fix. No one can, not even Apple.

Now for software ... if your game is in an unplayable state right now, there's a good chance it's not in a playable one with after that delay. At best, it's in a playable but unenjoyable state.
If your game is in polishing and QA phase, then those months can make a difference. Here's hoping Nintendo's software is in this state.
Though i do agree, potentially throwing thirds under the bus who might have expected and somewhat relied on your new system (think Visions of Mana for example) by playing it too safe, isn't really a recommendable thing.

IMO, of course, if you can ship a game without gamebreaking bugs / problems, you're good.

As for actually being a delay ... i think the various sources that reported about the delay were pretty certain that third parties were informed about a delay.
 
Hermii said:
I don't think software development issues is as unlikely as your saying. They want to polish the hell out of those killer apps, that will continue to sell the whole lifecycle of the console.
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Bonejack said:
I think the common speculation is that the delay is software related.
Click to expand...

I don't know. This still doesn't press play with my logic. Its been 2 years of low active development for Switch games that werent simple remakes or remasters. Plenty of time to garner a launch window (At least for Nintendo, I can't make this argument for 3rd parties)

If it is software. How is 2-3 years of active development not enough to put together a launch window? Its not like they are preparing a new Zelda game which actively takes 5+ years lol

CalmMind said:
I would like to point out that there is no official delay and at this time every mention of the topic is based solely on conjecture.
Click to expand...

Obviously but...points at topic title
 
CalmMind said:
I would like to point out that there is no official delay and at this time every mention of the topic is based solely on conjecture.
Click to expand...
Not really, Nintendo hold regular dialogue with third party developers and obviously these third party developers were previously under the knowledge that Nintendo were aiming for a late 2024 release until Nintendo sometime in early 2024 told the same third party developers that they were now aiming for a release in march 2025 at the earliest. So that the release got shifted 3-6 months or so seems likely.

And the fact that this almost always happen with Nintendo consoles just makes it even more likely, very few Nintendo consoles release within the original timeframe, it almost always have some form of internal delay happening.

Shareholder Chad said:
I don't know. This still doesn't press play with my logic. Its been 2 years of low active development for Switch games that werent simple remakes or remasters. Plenty of time to garner a launch window (At least for Nintendo, I can't make this argument for 3rd parties)

If it is software. How is 2-3 years of active development not enough to put together a launch window? Its not like they are preparing a new Zelda game which actively takes 5+ years lol



Obviously but...points at topic title
Click to expand...
The speculation is that Nintendo wants not only a solid launch line up but also have a solid launch cadence of first party titles the first 1-2 year of the Switch 2, maybe delaying the system 3-6 months help with getting that launch year release schedule going.
 
Q1 Please tell me about your approach to game software development resources. In June, through Nintendo Direct, you plan to announce the software lineup for the latter half of 2024, but based on the lineup for the first half of this year, it seems weaker than usual. Are most of the development resources already allocated to the successor model of the Nintendo Switch? Also, please tell us about your strategy for long-term expansion of development resources.

President Shuntaro Furukawa:Preparing for the successor model of the Nintendo Switch requires years, so it is true that various considerations are necessary for software development resources. We continue to develop software for the Nintendo Switch, so please look forward to the Nintendo Direct scheduled for June for future software lineups. Furthermore, in recent years, we have been continuously expanding our development resources through new graduate recruitment and career hiring. To continue enhancing the value of our IP and proposing unique entertainment, we will actively secure the necessary development resources. Although methods like M&A are available for expanding development resources, our primary focus is to train talent within the company who understand the Nintendo brand and to cultivate future Nintendo developers together with those who have built our brand over the years. We also want to deepen collaboration with external development partners who have a deep understanding of our philosophy and game development methods. I believe that the complexity, length, and sophistication of game development are inevitable, but developing unique proposals through game development is vital to our business, so we will actively invest in expanding our development resources.

Q2 If the hardware sales forecast for this fiscal year (ending March 2025) does not include the successor model of the Nintendo Switch, the reduction compared to the previous fiscal year (ending March 2024) seems small. Do you think announcing the successor model will not affect the momentum of the Nintendo Switch business?

Furukawa:The hardware sales forecast for this fiscal year does not include the successor model of the Nintendo Switch. Although the sales of Nintendo Switch hardware have been relatively strong, we acknowledge that it has become challenging to maintain momentum as we enter the eighth year since its release. However, during last year's holiday season, particularly abroad, many new customers, including children and families, picked up a Nintendo Switch. This fiscal year, with the release of new titles and the continued visibility of "The Super Mario Brothers Movie" in various formats since its theatrical release, we believe new demand can still be generated. Although the announcement of the successor model and related future communications will not be entirely without impact on Nintendo Switch sales, we aim to maintain a balanced demand for new and multiple units to maximize sales. Achieving a hardware sales forecast of 13.5 million units for the full year is not easy, but it is a challenge we are committed to at the start of the fiscal year.

Q3 Please tell us about the use of cash on hand and its relation to the Nintendo Switch successor model. At the management policy briefing in November last year, the existence of the successor model had not been announced, so it was difficult to explain the use of cash on hand in relation to the successor model. Was the scale of the amount already considering the successor model at that time? Also, does the use of cash on hand include efforts related to the Nintendo account to maintain and expand relationships with customers? Will the Nintendo account continue to be utilized in the successor model?

Furukawa:Regarding the use of cash on hand, we are considering or have already implemented various measures in each area, such as "accumulation of software assets" and "infrastructure to maintain and expand customer relationships." However, the development of the successor model of the Nintendo Switch is an investment made as part of normal business activities. Therefore, the investment related to the successor model is not the central focus of the use of cash on hand. As for "accumulation of software assets," investment in video content other than games has been prioritized at the current stage, but new investments related to games may occur in the future, potentially relating to the successor model. Additionally, "infrastructure to maintain and expand customer relationships" includes improving customer experience centered around the Nintendo account and creating new added value. Nintendo Systems Co., Ltd., a joint venture established with DeNA Co., Ltd., is introduced as an example of using cash on hand. The Nintendo account, prepared even before the launch of the Nintendo Switch to maintain long-term customer relationships beyond hardware generations, will continue to be utilized in the successor model.

Q4 I believe one significant change since the launch of the Nintendo Switch is the notable growth in digital sales. Considering the progress and contribution of digital business to date, what are your expectations for digital business in the lifecycle of the Nintendo Switch successor model?

Furukawa:As you pointed out, the expansion of the digital business scale has been one of the significant changes since the launch of the Nintendo Switch. Last year, sales were strong due to additional content for "Pokémon Scarlet & Violet," "Mario Kart 8 Deluxe," and "Splatoon 3," among others, and the exchange rate also contributed to the increase in digital sales and the proportion of digital sales. Our basic policy is not simply to increase the proportion of digital sales but to maximize the sales of game software, including packaged software. In this context, it is necessary to improve the convenience for both customers who play packaged software and those who play downloadable versions, and we plan to continue improving and innovating in the future. Compared to 2017, when the Nintendo Switch was launched, digitalization has progressed in various aspects of our lives. I believe that as the convenience of digital content continues to increase, more customers will choose digital products for the successor model, just as they have for the Nintendo Switch.

Q5 Regarding hardware sales, the forecast of 13.5 million units for this fiscal year seems quite ambitious considering the sales situation in the fourth quarter of the previous fiscal year. What measures are you considering to achieve this? Also, regarding hardware supply, you mentioned previously that you want to produce and ship a quantity that meets customer demand from an anti-resale perspective when launching new hardware. Given the recent improvements in the semiconductor market, is it possible to ship a sufficient quantity of the successor model of the Nintendo Switch from the outset?

Furukawa:The hardware sales forecast is a bit ambitious at the beginning of the fiscal year, similar to the previous fiscal year, and is not an easily achievable number based on recent sales conditions. Last year, the momentum of hardware sales improved thanks to hits like "The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom" and the movie "The Super Mario Brothers Movie," ultimately exceeding the initial forecast of 15 million units to reach 15.7 million units sold. This fiscal year, various measures will be necessary to achieve the forecasted sales of Nintendo Switch hardware. Last year's holiday sales included hardware bundled with software, and we made proposals that would make customers want to buy a second unit. This fiscal year, through various initiatives, we aim to approach the forecasted sales of 13.5 million units.

Regarding the supply of the successor model of the Nintendo Switch, I cannot provide specific details since we have not discussed the launch timing yet. However, as there are no supply shortages of semiconductor parts or similar components like in previous years, we do not anticipate that the supply of semiconductor parts will be a major issue at the launch of the successor model.

Q6 Is there a particular intention behind referring to the successor model of the Nintendo Switch as such? Looking back at past hardware announcements, the Wii U was described as the "successor to the Wii," and the Nintendo Switch was introduced as a "completely new concept of a game console." This time, it's described as the "successor model of the Nintendo Switch." Does this expression reflect an intention to carry over the play style and concept of the Nintendo Switch? Also, when further information is released later this fiscal year, will there be explanations regarding the launch timing and specifications?

Furukawa:At this stage, I cannot discuss further details about the successor model of the Nintendo Switch. We judged that using the expression "successor model of the Nintendo Switch" was most appropriate for today's announcement. Regarding future communications, we will proceed step-by-step towards the launch, as we have done with previous new hardware announcements.

Q7 The operating profit forecast for this fiscal year has been announced at 400 billion yen, which seems to suggest that Nintendo has been able to raise its base profit level during a transition period for hardware. I remember there was a time before the launch of the Nintendo Switch when the market expected Nintendo to achieve an operating profit of over 100 billion yen as a "Nintendo-like profit." What is your current view on the level of "Nintendo-like profit"?

Furukawa:I am aware that many people expected us to achieve an annual operating profit of 100 billion yen, which was considered a typical revenue structure for Nintendo. However, at this point, we have not discussed a specific amount for "Nintendo-like profit." The announced operating profit forecast of 400 billion yen assumes that the hardware sales forecast was set with a bit of ambition, and the same applies to software. Therefore, if the number of software sales significantly falls short of expectations, achieving an operating profit of 400 billion yen will not be easy. We have announced this number at the beginning of the fiscal year with a commitment to challenge ourselves to achieve the sales plan.

In this fiscal year, it is very important to maintain the momentum of the Nintendo Switch business through various sales strategies for hardware and by introducing new software titles. In addition to that, we plan to continue communicating with customers through various initiatives, even beyond game consoles. For example, the Nintendo Museum, scheduled to open in the fall of 2024, is one of the initiatives through which we aim to maintain not only the momentum of the Nintendo Switch business but also the overall momentum of our business. It will be an important year to maintain the momentum of our business while also preparing for the full-scale preparation of the successor model of the Nintendo Switch, which is crucial for balancing the maintenance of the Nintendo Switch's momentum and the preparation for the successor model. Therefore, this fiscal year is positioned as a year to focus on preparations for the future, sustainable growth, and long-term enhancement of corporate value, rather than being overly concerned with the profit level for a single year.

Q8 I think that "The Super Mario Brothers Movie" was very effective in expanding the recognition of Nintendo IP in regions where Nintendo Switch is not sold, as part of IP development efforts. I understand that movies have long production periods and require significant investment. Is there a possibility of aiming to expand the population exposed to Nintendo IP through smaller-scale video content, such as anime or short videos, in the future?

Furukawa:In the performance of the previous fiscal year, while the sales numbers for both hardware and software decreased, we were able to maintain the overall momentum of the business through initiatives aimed at expanding the population exposed to Nintendo IP. Despite the impact of the weak yen, the increase in revenue and profit was significantly influenced by the movie. Beyond its impact on performance, the movie played a major role in expanding the population exposed to Nintendo IP. "The Super Mario Brothers Movie" continues to be watched by many people through video streaming services even after its theatrical release. I recognize movies as one of the very effective measures that can serve as an opportunity for customers to take an interest in our games, and as previously announced, we intend to continue working on film production in the future.

Nintendo Pictures Co., Ltd., which we made a subsidiary in 2022, is engaged in various initiatives across the video business, not just feature-length movies. Like game development, our basic policy for video content is to announce something when we have created something interesting that we are satisfied with. While the production team experiments and tries various things, we hope to inform you again when we have created something new that feels successful.

Q9 I understand that the "annual play user" count is an important metric for Nintendo. Although the sales of Nintendo Switch hardware have peaked, this metric has continued to grow since disclosure began. Do you expect this number to decrease this fiscal year? Also, will the "annual play user" count continue to be an important metric for Nintendo after the launch of the successor model of the Nintendo Switch?

Furukawa:The "annual play user" count, one of our important metrics, reached over 123 million people in the most recent fiscal year (April 2023 to March 2024), increasing from the previous year and reaching an all-time high. In 2023, new titles such as "The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom" and "Super Mario Bros. Wonder" recorded significant sales, providing many opportunities for people to pick up and play the Nintendo Switch, which also increased the "annual play user" count. The ability to propose such software that creates these opportunities will be one of the keys to our future.

This fiscal year, rather than expanding the Nintendo Switch business, it is important to maintain its momentum. We want to maintain the "annual play user" count at a high level while connecting it to the future. We continue to focus on the game console business that integrates hardware and software, emphasizing whether customers who have purchased our hardware continue to play games over the long term. Various opportunities, such as Christmas and birthdays, when people gather, are very important for starting up software and playing games, which is crucial for healthy growth of our business. Therefore, the "annual play user" count, which shows how many customers have played games in the past 12 months, will continue to be an important metric.
Click to expand...

TLDR:

  • Nintendo is balancing ongoing software development for the Switch with preparations for its successor, while also expanding its development workforce.
  • FY25 Sales forecasts are ambitious, not including the successor model, with strategies to maintain strong demand for the Nintendo Switch through new titles and continued promotion of "The Super Mario Brothers Movie".
  • Investments in the successor model are routine business, with ongoing emphasis on enhancing customer relationships through the Nintendo Account
  • Digital sales are increasing significantly, with a focus on maximizing both digital and physical game sales.
  • Nintendo is optimistic about meeting the successor model's demand thanks to a stable supply chain.
  • Maintaining Nintendo Switch momentum while preparing for the successor model is a priority, with continued efforts to grow the Nintendo IP and user engagement.
 
Shareholder Chad said:
Last question and answer really kills any chance of a 2024 release to me plus the direct in June where they will unload all their remaining switch bullets. We knew this however. Official translation pending of course.
Click to expand...

We probably haven't read the same question and answer cause nothing on this Q&A is pointing toward a 2024 or 2025 release date
 
P4bl0 said:
We probably haven't read the same question and answer cause nothing on this Q&A is pointing toward a 2024 or 2025 release date
Click to expand...
Considering that June Direct is geared towards the second half of switch games, then Switch 2 really isn't aiming for this year's release, and as we speculated earlier, Furukawa wants to replicate the 2016 switch's release cadence.
 
P4bl0 said:
We probably haven't read the same question and answer cause nothing on this Q&A is pointing toward a 2024 or 2025 release date
Click to expand...
the projected sales are sw1tch only. i don't think they can release the new console this year and simply don't account for it in the projections.
 
This isn't me saying a 2024 release is possible (i left that team as promised with the end of March), but iirc they can always increase or decrease their estimates in later meetings.
 
Aufhebung RPG said:
My problem is that for modern game development a six month delay doesn't carry absolute development time, and I don't subscribe to the notion that delays are due to software, I think there is a correlation with hardware availability.

But this is all just assuming that the switch2 does go through a "delayed" schedule for Nintendo.I have my doubts about that.
Click to expand...
I believe it has less to do that there wouldn‘t be enough games available at release, more that they don‘t want to have any gaps.

If they would release Switch in like November and then have like 2-3 major releases, they would for sure have great holidays. But what is with the time right after? There would be the danger that the console falls of the cliff if they have no bigger release for some time. They would lose the gained momentum very fast.

I think Switch proofed for them that releasing in H1 with a mediocre launch lineup but slowly building up the library to be fully ready for the first holiday is the better strategy than going directly into the first holidays with 1-3 big titles but then having nothing for some time.

But I guess we will see if that‘s their strategy and if it works out that well again.
 
Aufhebung RPG said:
Considering that June Direct is geared towards the second half of switch games, then Switch 2 really isn't aiming for this year's release, and as we speculated earlier, Furukawa wants to replicate the 2016 switch's release cadence.
Click to expand...
I don’t think the June Direct indicates anything like that. There still are games we know of, either through official announcements or leaks which wait for their release date (e.g. Metroid Prime 4 and Fire Emblem 4), and probably some smaller titles we don’t know of. It is only logical to bring these announcements out of the way before Switch 2 takes the spotlight.
 
Truno said:
Furukawa confirms that the forecast doesn't consider the successor to the Nintendo Switch. They gotta be cooking up something huge for Switch 1
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This doesn't indicate big titles imo. Would be nice but I think remasters, nintendo selects and a price cut (directly or via bundles) would do the job/get close. I also don't even think the forecasted sales matter at all considering the switch 2 should be out before next may.
 
P4bl0 said:
Yes they can, they always did this
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The bigger question then for me is, do they expect the switch1 to still sell well even when switch2 is out?
I see 3 paths:
1:switch 2 is fall, and switch 1 has a massive sale to get rid of it and only focus on switch 2 (production of 1 ends effectively immediate)
2: switch 2 will come march 2025 and by then there simply is only switch 1 with some sweet deals
3: they know switch 2 will be way higher in price and will keep switch1 as an entry option with say 50-80$ price reduction.
 
To me the only realistic way to meet 13,5 million Switch sales for this current FY is price drops, Nintendo selects, increased bundles. Otherwise it wouldn't make sense that the decline would only be about 2 million from last FY.
 
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