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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Also I won't be hearing out anyone defending the continued use of wasteful, needless plastic. The plastic of the Game Card is pretty much necessary, though even that could be engineered with a bioplastic. The current game cases' use of plastic is wasteful and downright goche. It's not like it saves money vs. paper either. If Apple can pack a phone entirely in paper, Nintendo can do games.

Small steps in sustainability would be nice headed into a new generation.
I won't argue for plastic in those boxes (I'm agnostic, for collectors paper is hell I guess, but physical releases are on the way out anyway).

What I'll argue is that the impact of cases doesn't even register in comparison to...say plastic bottles. How many physical games does the average customer buy over a consoles life, and how many kgs of plastic in the form of consumables.

That is a way bigger factor. Industrial one time use tools to cut down on labor and cleaning cost are an even bigger factor. My main point: I see to often people trying to reduce on the wrong end with a lot of effort. (Don't mean you explicitly)

For games the solution would be clear:
Be only digital, or if downloads are a problem, have kiosks and blanks where you can download it to a blank gamecard.just as they did with the DD.
 
lol ok then. Not sure how this rules out anything.

Unless there's another July game being announced in the Direct, this "NES Remix but without the Remix" is their game for the month July.

This is what they "have" to release to somehow fill the lineup with something.

Even if Metroid Prime 4 drops prior to Switch 2 launch this holiday, even with the FE 4 Remake, they're not going to hit their hardware and/or software estimates with that.

Personal opinion and all, but a mere port of TP and WW HD would be more exciting, and i played those games three times already.
 
Hey peeps.

Wondering what most of you all think when the official announcement of the Switch II gonna be, since it won't be in the Direct.
Myself, I think it can get revealed arround Late June-September. Especially if they keep up with their ''Announce it 9 months before the release'' rule, like I see them doing with their games schedule. March is 10 month's away, so say Late June/begin July I actually can see them release the reveal trailer.

I kinda hope we can get at least the codename of the Switch II in the annual shareholder's meeting, as I don't think that was shared yesterday?
 
Not to sound mean, but everyone thinking that "they're cooking" something for Switch 1 for the rest of the year because of the high estimates needs to look at that NES remix.

That's as low effort as it gets.
Unless there's another July game being announced in the Direct, this "NES Remix but without the Remix" is their game for the month July.

This is what they "have" to release to somehow fill the lineup with something.

Even if Metroid Prime 4 drops prior to Switch 2 launch this holiday, even with the FE 4 Remake, they're not going to hit their hardware and/or software estimates with that.

Personal opinion and all, but a mere port of TP and WW HD would be more exciting, and i played those games three times already.
You would think people would learn not to jump to conclusions about Nintendo's 2nd half of <<Year 202X>> after a couple of years of this stuff, even with an imminent upcoming Direct that was announced yesterday, and with Nintendo almost exactly hitting last year's estimates. But here we are, again.
 
Hey peeps.

Wondering what most of you all think when the official announcement of the Switch II gonna be, since it won't be in the Direct.
Myself, I think it can get revealed arround Late June-September. Especially if they keep up with their ''Announce it 9 months before the release'' rule, like I see them doing with their games schedule. March is 10 month's away, so say Late June/begin July I actually can see them release the reveal trailer.

I kinda hope we can get at least the codename of the Switch II in the annual shareholder's meeting, as I don't think that was shared yesterday?

I am not aware of any "announce 9 months before the release" rule or pattern?

OLED announcement to release was 6 months. Switch 1 didn't follow 9 month rule either (more like 11 months, or 4.5 months, depending whether you want to use April 2016 mention or October 2016 reveal). Which consoles followed the 9 month before release rule?
 
Hey peeps.

Wondering what most of you all think when the official announcement of the Switch II gonna be, since it won't be in the Direct.
Myself, I think it can get revealed arround Late June-September. Especially if they keep up with their ''Announce it 9 months before the release'' rule, like I see them doing with their games schedule. March is 10 month's away, so say Late June/begin July I actually can see them release the reveal trailer.

I kinda hope we can get at least the codename of the Switch II in the annual shareholder's meeting, as I don't think that was shared yesterday?j
july earliest, only if the june direct is really lackluster and nintendo intends to release the 2witch this calendar year. My bet is an october first reveal for a march/april release
 
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You would think people would learn not to jump to conclusions about Nintendo's 2nd half of <<Year 202X>> after a couple of years of this stuff, even with an imminent upcoming Direct that was announced yesterday, and with Nintendo almost exactly hitting last year's estimates. But here we are, again.

You can talk to me directly instead of quoting two of my posts and adding a snarky response, okay? But if you're not interested in an actual discussion, i ask you to kindly not quote me.
 
They felt ready!
reggie-fils-aime-nintendon-1024x576.jpg
 
there is no proof that this game was made after the delay to just fill space. That's pure speculation
We also don't really know the technicalities of the 'delay'. Pretty sure nate was the only insider saying 2025 was an option from the moment 2024 was on the table. Meaning it could have always been on the cards and they fully planned for this scenario regardless. The only interesting idea is that Nintendo just have a bunch of games that have been on the shelf waiting for their time in the sun. Maybe we see a few of them thrown to the Switch 1 after next gens release.
 
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After needing to factory reset my Deck just to fix the dock signal issue, I realized the latest client update makes the user interface much less sluggish on 4K.

I decided to try out Hades 2 and it reliably hovers in the 50-60s in native 4K low settings, with 90% GPU usage and 20% CPU usage, using 6 gigs of VRAM. I'd say that bodes pretty well for a more optimized port on Switch 2. :)
 
You see? I told you guys we would have a win-win situation with Pyoro and the NES World championship game. They have a commercial that features all the previous championship, even the one from the very first one.


Expect Pyoro to give us detail about the June direct. If we see Metroid Prime 4 there, I doubt it will be a cross-gen title.
 
After needing to factory reset my Deck just to fix the dock signal issue, I realized the latest client update makes the user interface much less sluggish on 4K.

I decided to try out Hades 2 and it reliably hovers in the 50-60s in native 4K with 90% GPU usage and 20% CPU usage, using 6 gigs of VRAM. I'd say that bodes pretty well for a more optimized port on Switch 2. :)
Wait a min is Hades 2 already out? Or is it just early access thing?

Expect Pyoro to give us detail about the June direct. If we see Metroid Prime 4 there, I doubt it will be a cross-gen title.

I'm skeptical MP4 would be showcased without mentioning it's a cross-gen title. And Furukawa explicitly stated there'll be no Switch 2 mention during June direct.

So where does that put me? I don't think MP4 will be announced in the June direct.
 
Even if Metroid Prime 4 drops prior to Switch 2 launch this holiday, even with the FE 4 Remake, they're not going to hit their hardware and/or software estimates with that.
They wouldn't show off MP4 if it is a cross gen title. They would want to probably show off the Switch 2 version, if that's the case.
 
You can talk to me directly instead of quoting two of my posts and adding a snarky respone, okay? But if you're not interested in an actual discussion, i ask you to kindly not quote me.
Happy to help, let me try again:

You would think people would learn Bonejack, you should not jump to conclusions about Nintendo's 2nd half of <<Year 202X>> after a couple of years of this stuff, even with an imminent upcoming Direct that was announced yesterday, and with Nintendo almost exactly hitting last year's estimates. But here we are, again. Best Wishes, KarlRemarx
 
Nah, this is arbitrary, and based entirely on hindsight. The Wii U example in particular is whack as "a concept not worthy of a new brand."
"Concept" is different from "selling point". You're looking at hardware, but the name is part of the marketing.

If you look at Wii and Wii U trailers/ads, the former removes any connection to the GC and the later is constantly trying to be an improved Wii and why you should upgrade.

It's not hindsight to say that Nintendo considered "Wii but better" the Wii U's main selling point of the system over asymmetrical and tv-off or 3rd parties, because they made choices to highlight that and it was what they chose to advertise the most.
 
"Concept" is different from "selling point". You're looking at hardware, but the name is part of the marketing.

If you look at Wii and Wii U trailers/ads, the former removes any connection to the GC and the later is constantly trying to be an improved Wii and why you should upgrade.

It's not hindsight to say that Nintendo considered "Wii but better" the Wii U's main selling point of the system over asymmetrical and tv-off or 3rd parties, because they made choices to highlight that and it was what they chose to advertise the most.
The Wii was the new revolutionary console, the Wii U was the new expensive controller.
 
They wouldn't show off MP4 if it is a cross gen title. They would want to probably show off the Switch 2 version, if that's the case.

Sure, i'm with you there. I was just giving a theoretical scenario that has release Prime 4 on Switch earlier, adding another big title to this years line-up.

Happy to help, let me try again:

You would think people would learn Bonejack, you should not jump to conclusions about Nintendo's 2nd half of <<Year 202X>> after a couple of years of this stuff, even with an imminent upcoming Direct that was announced yesterday, and with Nintendo almost exactly hitting last year's estimates. But here we are, again. Best Wishes, KarlRemarx

Okay first, keep doing this snarky crap and i'll report you.

Now for the rest:

Yes, Nintendo announced a Direct for next month. A month in advance. Does that mean it's going to be "big"? No. It's just as likely that they announced it to calm down investors in the wake of a forecast decrease in revenue coupled with the next big money maker being delayed out of the calendar year and not a single dated game after Luigi's Mansion 2.

Nintendo hit last years estimates, great. But somehow jumping to the conclusion that this means anything for this years estimates is funny, as it ignores quite a few things that 2023 had and that 2024 doesn't have:

  • A new mainline Zelda game
  • A new 2D Mario
  • DLC for the newest mainline Pokemon games
  • A new mainline Pikmin game

So please don't give me the "jumping to conclusions" lecture.

For me, this discussion with you is done.
 
It's not hindsight to say that Nintendo considered "Wii but better" the Wii U's main selling point of the system over asymmetrical and tv-off or 3rd parties, because they made choices to highlight that and it was what they chose to advertise the most.
I really don't know how you can make this conclusion. 100% of the marketing was about those things, to the point that a common criticism of it today is you only ever saw the controller in ads. It was all they talked about. It was the identity of the Wii U in the same way, if not more so, as the Switch's USP is its identity.
 
I am not aware of any "announce 9 months before the release" rule or pattern?
Yeah, my deepest apologies.
I checked it again, but I think I remembered it wrong, sorry. Ever since MP4, I thought I read Nintendo made a decision to have a reveal-release schedule within 9 months, so fans wouldn't wait for long after a game's reveal, like we still do for Metroid Prime 4. But I think I made a mistake on that part, I am terribly sorry.
 
Yeah, my deepest apologies.
I checked it again, but I think I remembered it wrong, sorry. Ever since MP4, I thought I read Nintendo made a decision to have a reveal-release schedule within 9 months, so fans wouldn't wait for long after a game's reveal, like we still do for Metroid Prime 4. But I think I made a mistake on that part, I am terribly sorry.
Don't be sorry - I misunderstood too, I was thinking it was about console reveal-release timeline. Didn't realize you were talking about games. About that, no idea myself.
 
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Although they're probably hoping to shift excitement to upcoming NX due to Wii U's failure, remember that we were getting announcements of games coming to next game, before the console was revealed several months later (October 2016).

Not sure if Nintendo plans on something similar here (announcing games for successor model before reveal), but if they do, I imagine it won't be till after June Direct.

 
there is no proof that this game was made after the delay to just fill space. That's pure speculation
Agree with this, slapping together a game in a six month window is out of the question nowadays.

All games we will see over the next six to eight months for the Switch had to have been planned or finished before the delay.
 
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Is Prime 4 cross gen? I think the answer depends on what Prime 4 actually is. Here's my guess:

If the philosophy behind it is a BotW, radically changing up the conventions of the series to make something brand new with wider appeal? If so, could be cross gen.

But if it's Luigi's Mansion 3, a new entry in the Gamecubesque series doing broadly the same thing but better and prettier? Switch 1 Swansong.

Until we actually see it, we don't know if it's a nostalgia game for cubeheads, or if it's Metroids big mainstream breakout.
 
I would like to ask a technical question, can drake's 48 tensor cores theoretically render results comparable to 9th gen consoles (ps5/xsx)?
Though if someone wants to explain why this is the case, please feel free to. :)
You've already gotten some good answers, but just to add on top (and assuming you did mean RT, not DLSS)

Let's start with how ray tracing works:

Light has color - we all know this from every neon sign you've ever seen. When light hits an object, it bounces, but it also changes color, mixing the original color of the light with the color of the object.

If white light from the sun comes in through my office window and hits my grey Ikea dresser, the light becomes grey. When that light reaches my eye I see the "grey". Places where more light hits are brighter than others. When the sun starts to set, the light from the sun turns from white, to something closer to orange, and all of the objects I see - even the grey dresser - have an orange tint.

Ray tracing is a computer simulation of light bouncing and changing color. It makes the lighting in a game very accurate to real life. Ray tracing could be used to draw every part of a screen - that's how movie CGI works - but it's too expensive to do that in real time in most games.
Instead, game engines use traditional rendering for parts of the game, and ray tracing for other parts, where traditional rendering struggles to get good results. Things like reflections, or shadows.

How ray tracing cores work

RT cores don't draw anything. The regular shader cores of the GPU that draw everything else also draw the tray traced bits.This is important, because those shaders are how artists control what a scene looks like. For example, cel-shading, like Breath of the Wild - the artist wants to take an accurate version of the light in the scene, but render it in that cel-shaded cartoon look.

RT cores accelerate the math used to compute the light bounces, and the color changes. The RT core will take a ray of light, and check if it hits a certain part of an object. If it hits, it will calculate how the light color changes, and the angle at which the light bounces. AMD and Nvidia's RT cores both do these things.

But there are so many lights, and so many objects in even a simple scene, the question "does this ray of light hit this corner of this particular object" is almost always no. Ray tracing can spend a lot of time chasing paths of light that can either never happen, or would never be visible, even if they did. Ray tracing is expensive, this is a huge waste.

The trick is to use a special description of the objects in your scene (called a BVH tree) that allows you to very quickly eliminate big chunks of the scene where a certain path of light will never get to. So instead of checking every ray of light against every triangle in every object, you can use this quick scan to cut it down to only (for example) 20% of the objects in the scene, and then do the individual tests on those.

Both AMD and Nvidia use BVH trees - but AMD's RT cores don't accelerate that. AMD's solution uses the CPU to do this culling. Not only is this slower, but it creates a back-and-forth conversation between the CPU and the GPU.

Game engine: cast a ray, please
CPU: Let me run a BVH search... okay, I've whittled it down.
RT cores: Okay, let me run all the bounces on this small section... Here you go!
CPU: Great, shaders, can you draw some reflections with this?
Shader cores: On it!

Nvidia cores do accelerate the BVH searches. It also places the RT cores and the shader cores together in such a way that they can communicate back and forth, instead of just one way. So the conversation looks like this:

Game engine: cast a ray, please
RT cores: Let me run a BVH search... great, I can check the bounces in this section... here you go shaders
Shaders: Drawing reflections now

You can see from just this how much faster the Nvidia solution should be. But it's not just that the conversation is shorter and more efficient, but Nvidia's RT cores can do the BVH search faster than AMD's drivers can do it on the CPU. This leads to a huge increase in performance.

So RT on Drake is as good as PS5???
Well, no. But also yes. But not really, though. Let's zoom out, some.

If you looked at just the ray casting part of the pipeline - from when the game engine starts casting a ray to when the shader gets the result - Drake will probably perform about twice as fast as the Series S. Not quite PS5 good, but pretty damned good. But that's just one part of the pipeline.

Light needs objects to bounce off of. Objects in a video game are made of geometry - the number of polygons in model. We've seen downports to Switch use lower quality models, we should expect the same in the future. How good an effect looks to your eye will be impacted by that geometry.

Shaders still need to actually perform the drawing operations. Just because the RT cores can handle all the rays of light in the scene doesn't mean the shaders can draw every RT effect in the same amount of time. Nvidia's efficiency won't overcome just how big the GPUs are in the other consoles.

And GPUs still need to draw the the non-RT parts of a scene. Even if somehow, Nvidia's RT hardware in Drake could do every RT effect, beginning to end, at the same speed as the PS5, developers would still likely need to pull the effects back to make room for the rest of the rendering.

What do we expect then?
Well, I will only speak for me. And I will say that I don't have a sense of what Nintendo will do for first party games. There has never been a game engine that only ever had to support Nvidia's hardware before, so I don't have a sense of how far they could push it. Nintendo might choose to go all in, or to be more subtle, not for performance reasons, but artistic ones.

But when it comes to ports, a rule of thumb that I think will hold up - Nintendo's console can keep ray tracing on where Series S ports need to turn them off. I realize I wrote a lot of words here for a pretty short conclusion, but I think that's the most succinct answer I can give.

That doesn't mean that every port will have RT, or that it will look as good. Some games have RT as an afterthought, and it's not transformative. Discarding it will give a performance boost for a low visual cost. And just because the RT effects are identical, doesn't mean they'll look as good, when there are other cutbacks to geometry and resolution.

But where RT is transformative, I think Drake's RT performance will be high enough that keeping them on - along with the cutbacks elsewhere - will be worth it, and technically possible, in a way it's not on Series S.

Can you give me an example, so it's something I can see?
Actually, I kinda can! Control is a game that 1) has RT, 2) has versions on lots of hardware, and 3) was tested by Digital Foundry in their T239 video.

Here is a comparison of the Series S version with the Series X RT mode. On the left you see the Series S running at 60fps. On the right, you see the Series X running at half that with the RT reflections on. You can see that the differences are night and day. Series X can do the higher frame rate by turning the RT off, and still at higher resolution.

Series S just has the high frame rate, low res, no RT mode. Implying that even at 30fps, the Series S couldn't enable RT, without dropping to a resolution so low it was unplayable.

Here is Control tested on an ultra low spec Nvidia GPU. You'll see a upscaled-to-1080p version of the game, just like Series S, but with those high quality, RT reflections enabled, at the same frame rate as the PS5. The PS5 version still looks better, because it's running at higher resolution. But the resolution cutback that wasn't enough to get RT on Series S is absolutely enough on this low spec hardware, that is in the same performance bracket as Drake.

Does this make sense? You still need all the resolution cutbacks, the frame rate tweaks, because fundamentally, it's still a much smaller piece of kit. But where RT falls away on the AMD hardware, it stays on here, because of the superior design.
 
Considering that June Direct is geared towards the second half of switch games, then Switch 2 really isn't aiming for this year's release, and as we speculated earlier, Furukawa wants to replicate the 2016 switch's release cadence.

Switch 2 could easily be teased this summer, presented in september and releasing in november with a good line up including third parties

Let's see what Furukawa gonna do
 
Considering that June Direct is geared towards the second half of switch games, then Switch 2 really isn't aiming for this year's release, and as we speculated earlier, Furukawa wants to replicate the 2016 switch's release cadence.

Switch 2 could easily be teased this summer, presented in september and releasing in november with a good line up including third parties

Let's see what Furukawa gonna do
 
Is Prime 4 cross gen? I think the answer depends on what Prime 4 actually is. Here's my guess:

If the philosophy behind it is a BotW, radically changing up the conventions of the series to make something brand new with wider appeal? If so, could be cross gen.

But if it's Luigi's Mansion 3, a new entry in the Gamecubesque series doing broadly the same thing but better and prettier? Switch 1 Swansong.

Until we actually see it, we don't know if it's a nostalgia game for cubeheads, or if it's Metroids big mainstream breakout.
I don't think it's limited to those decision points when it comes to making MP4 cross-gen.

MP4 is a graphics-heavy game. It would be silly if Nintendo decides to give MP4 Switch 1-only treatment, with nothing enhanced on Switch 2 to show off the graphical capabilities.
 
there is no proof that this game was made after the delay to just fill space. That's pure speculation
ESRB leaking ahead of time does suggest one thing: it was delayed.

We had no game in April. That could have been the original launch date.
 
Is Prime 4 cross gen? I think the answer depends on what Prime 4 actually is. Here's my guess:

If the philosophy behind it is a BotW, radically changing up the conventions of the series to make something brand new with wider appeal? If so, could be cross gen.

But if it's Luigi's Mansion 3, a new entry in the Gamecubesque series doing broadly the same thing but better and prettier? Switch 1 Swansong.

Until we actually see it, we don't know if it's a nostalgia game for cubeheads, or if it's Metroids big mainstream breakout.
or it could be a core-oriented game. Metroid Prime can still hit 3M as it is and Nintendo might be fine with that.
 
if the successor came out in march when should mass production begins?
Switch mass production began in October 2016, around same time they made the reveal.

SWOLED mass production also began around the same time they announced, July 2021.

I would tend to think they'd want to reveal around the time they begin mass production, to get ahead of leaks about the Switch 2 unit itself (mass production is a big logistical thing). If we think they'll begin mass production before October 2024, then I think it's also reasonable to think they'll reveal Switch 2 before October 2024 too.
 
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