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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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oldpuck said:
I know I've said this before, but when people say "MP4 will be/won't be cross gen" I don't know that anyone is actually talking about the same thing when they mean cross-gen. I'm certainly never sure that I know what they're talking about.

The successor has been announced, MP4 still isn't dated. By the definition of something like Ghost of Tsushima, it already is cross-gen. If by "cross-gen" we mean released after the Switch 2, but supporting Switch 1, I'd say that there is every indication that Nintendo has adjusted its release schedule fairly recently. Nintendo needs to both have a stacked launch, but also maintain Switch momentum over a longer than anticipated period. There is no "clear from the outside" answer.

If by "cross-gen" we mean "enhanced on the future console when it arrives" this can be a decision Nintendo makes after launch. Again, looking at Ghosts of Tsushima, it didn't get the Director's Cut which included the PS5 enhancements until over a year after launch. The business case for an "enhanced" title will depend on what other games are in the launch window, and whether or not it makes sense to have Retro continue to work on Prime 4 instead of having an extra 6 months to a year headstart on their "true" next gen exclusive.

Nintendo can do anything with Metroid. What Nintendo will do with Metroid mostly depends on 18 months worth of games they haven't revealed yet, for hardware they've not stated the pitch for, in the middle of what appears to be a software vacuum created by a last minute hardware delay. Anyone confident in their assessment of how the Prime 4 release will go is out on a limb, no matter what they're confident about.
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Not saying that they can or cannot do something,

but to me it truly doesn't make any sense for them to release a game ahead of their next gen console and suck the "newness" out of the game when supposedly the very reason for the delay is due to the fact that they don't have enough software ready for the Switch 2.

Metroid Prime 4 won't sell any more hardware for Switch at this point in its lifespan. MP4 would, however, help sell the next gen console and kickstart a healthy lineup & word of mouth right out the gate. Let's be real, Ghost of Tsushima Director's Cut didn't sell PS5s because it was already out and old news. The same will happen for Metroid Prime 4 with a Switch 2 "late port", so it'd be a shame for it to come out after all these years to the absolute worst release timing.

The synergy of marketing MP4 to the next gen switch would enhance the excitement for both and make both sell more as a result. Make it cross-platform day 1, Switch 1 & 2 on launch day. The Switch doesn't need MP4, the Switch 2 does (again especially if "lack of exciting software" was the reason for the delay)
 
Shareholder Chad said:
One thing that needs to be discussed is WHY the switch 2 was delayed. It does matter if we are talking about release timing and expectations. Of course nobody has any real evidence so its all speculation but can we find informed speculation?

My list of possibilities:

  • Chip availability/affordability
  • Hardware tech from Nvidia availability
  • UI development issues (including BC)

Lower percentage possibilities:

  • Desire for higher than normal stock at launch
  • Software development issues and/or availability
  • Manufacturing lane availability/affordability
  • Yen/inflation crisis (A crashed Yen could be a REAL problem in 2 months)
  • Geopolitics crisis
  • Competition releasing devices this fall


This thing has been in active development and even supposedly close to release since 2022 so how can they have internal software or UI issues at this point? Not only that but the design is iterative thus making supposed development time less for the hardware. Manufacturing lanes don't seem too bogged up either. They could've easily put this into production now and had an epic amount of stock for September or November.

I kind of want to place the blame squarely on Nvidia but this is just a logic guess at this point.
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If there was any way to know for sure, I'd put it on software development issues - maybe it's system software, maybe it readiness of expected launch software or probably a combination of the two. On top of that I think that Nintendo may have taken some of the lower percentage possibilities as things that a later launch could improve - which would help make it feel more reasonable to change plans internally.

Inflation is also a big issue. For a lot of regions, they'll be very reticent to raise suggested retail price. If inflation calms down, then they can set their price and not raise it during the generation.
 
Aufhebung RPG said:
Got it, which means that the number of cuda cores limits the upper limit of the actual polygon count of switch2, which may have an effect on the RT rendering, but even so, switch2 has a remarkable number of shaders for a portable, quite a bit more than a steam deck.
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not necessarily. polygon count throughput hasn't been relevant in a long time. and RT would use proxy models rather than the high number of polygons you see on screen
 
We have no idea the quality or type of game Metroid Prime 4 is, making sales speculation pretty tedious.

If this game is a game Nintendo feels confident is a 94+ Meta title, then they can position this as the holiday release, release it in November, and hope it gets a big boost from winning GotY at the TGAs (its competition would be FF7 Rebirth, Balatro, and Silksong which shouldn't be that hard of a lineup to beat). It could be hard for Prime 4 to beat GTA6 next year to win GotY and therefore it wouldn't get the TGA boost.

If the game is just OK/so-so, then being a launch title would probably be better at mediocre titles have a better chance of selling at launch.

And on a third hand, if the game is like generation-defining, Nintendo may want to make it a launch title to give the Switch 2 an incredible reputation right away similar to BotW.

We just have literally no information on the game other than the main development studio.
 
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P4bl0 said:
Bro, the console will be sold out the first months no matter what the units will be moved even without Mario at launch

Mario Kart can easily come Month 2-3 and Mario 3D can come month 7-8
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I dunno. One of the reasons for the rumored delayed to 2025 is getting enough consoles and games at launch. I think it's also good to come off a strong start /momentum and convince current switch owners to buy one with a console exclusive 1st party or a 1st party multi port with noticable performance upgrades over switch. Word of mouth will travel fast.

I do think they will get a big release in 2025, and a 3D Mario is a shoe in for that year. I feel fairly confident we will get a 3D Mario, MP4, and Pokemon A-Z legends. Will be interesting if 3D Mario ends up being a Switch 2 exclusive or an enhanced port (4k 60fps.. maybe better textures, lighting, shadows, and a RT mode at 1080p 60fps in docked).

I guess it's impossible to say what they will exactly do at launch. While it's possible, I don't think MP4 will be at launch, but rather a few weeks after. If 3D Mario is switch 2 exclusive, then it's for the nest for a fall 2025 release. I guess they could do AZ legends at launch.

ShadowFox08 said:
Switch is now over 140 million and expecting to sell 13.5 million coming into next March, I believe. Now, all it needs to do is beat PS2 in lifetime sales (160 million). I would gladly have Nintendo delay switch 3 release to Q4 2024 to achieve this, and with 8nm Samsung to boot. Cause why not
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I meant to say Switch 2 in Q4 2025

I was also joking ._.
 
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I could see Nintendo going for one more SKU in the OG switch family. They have already done the lite at the lower end and the Oled at the higher end so they could end up doing a "Vita TV" style device for $99 - $150 to try and sell to that cheap/impulse buy market. All Nintendo would have to do is throw a couple of joycons and a small unit with the Switches guts in a box and call it a day.
 
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Ricimer said:
Imo Prime 1 already passed this test and proved the Prime subseries can do it. It was one of the best selling GameCube games and sold way more than any other Metroid up to that point (excluding Metroid 1). In other words, the formula has killer-app potential.

I think Prime 2 and 3 didn't sell as well because of external factors. Both came out in an era were iterative sequels were made at a faster rate and taken for granted. Prime 2 launched the same week Halo 2. Prime 3 got zero marketing support from Nintendo and the initial Wii hype was mainly driven by casuals.

The Nintendo consumer base on Switch is a lot stronger now and is buying more firsty party games, even from more niche IPs, than ever before. This audience is significantly more receptive to core titles like Metroid, it's why Dread sold so well. That audience is going to carry over to the Switch 2.

I think in today's gaming landscape where there's a vacuum of gritty AAA singleplayer shooters (shocking to say), Meteoidvanias are more popular than ever, and similar games like Doom 2016/Doom Eternal sell very well, I think Prime 4 is ready for a breakout here if it launches with the Switch 2.
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You don’t lose >50% of your userbase game to game & blame it solely on external factors.
  • Prime2 would have significant decline even had it not gone against Halo. People had their fill of the first game & dipped. The fact it went against Halo just highlighted what people wanted versus Prime2
  • Prime3 did get marketing as apart of the ‘Wii Would Like to Play’ series both as a compilation & standalone segment. They even did a whole ‘Month of Metroid’ + a Wii Shop channel. It may not have been what you wanted but it is disingenuous to say that it didn’t get any.
The only thing Prime proved was showing there was a potential 3mil selling user base for Metroid. Which Dread eventually capitalized on but that does not mean it passed the litmus test. I remain skeptical that Prime4 is a breakout hit until they show otherwise. I think if it’s the same ol’ that Prime has been then I expect it to sell around the same.
 
Procheno said:
but to me it truly doesn't make any sense for them to release a game ahead of their next gen console and suck the "newness" out of the game when supposedly the very reason for the delay is due to the fact that they don't have enough software ready for the Switch 2.
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I mean, it makes sense to me? You seem to be assuming that NIntendo didn't plan on enough games for launch, so they need to sacrifice a Switch game to fit into a hole in the launch year.

But if Nintendo did plan on enough games, but they're just not ready, then delaying Metroid doesn't fix the problem! Let's say Nintendo planned for 10 Next Gen games between Holiday 2024 and Holiday 2025, but one or more of the games wasn't ready, leaving a hole in the schedule.

By delaying to March 2025, they've already fixed the hole - by moving it into the Switch 1 generation. Now those 10 games only need to cover 8 months! Even ignoring the extra development time, you've fixed the scheduling problem just by changing the launch date.

As for the newness of the game, Prime's fans are Prime's fans. They're going to buy the game. Do you think that non-fans are more likely to pick up the game when its an uprezzed Switch game competing against Next Gen 3D Mario, or do you think they're more likely to buy it because they still love their Switch, but they've played all the Mario games on the system and Prime 4 is one of the prettiest Switch games they've ever seen?

Procheno said:
Metroid Prime 4 won't sell any more hardware for Switch at this point in its lifespan. MP4 would, however, help sell the next gen console and kickstart a healthy lineup & word of mouth right out the gate. Let's be real, Ghost of Tsushima Director's Cut didn't sell PS5s because it was already out and old news. The same will happen for Metroid Prime 4 with a Switch 2 "late port", so it'd be a shame for it to come out after all these years to the absolute worst release timing.
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I agree that Prime 4 won't sell more Switches, but that's not the point of Prime 4? The point of games isn't to sell Switches, the point of Switches is to sell games. Prime 4's goal is to sell as many copies of Prime 4 as it can.

Are you saying it would be a shame for Switch 2 to not have the sales enhancement of Prime 4? Or are you saying that it would be a shame for Prime 4 to have bad sales timing? Because if you're talking about it would be a shame for Prime, comparing to Ghosts of Tsushima is a little off - it sold 10 million copies and was the fastest selling Sony game of all time.

That suggests that launching on a big install base, after the announcement of the new hardware, isn't a detriment, but in fact, a benefit. If you make players excited about your products, and they are feverish for anything they can get, and they're waiting on new hardware and you give them a big gorgeous game to play while they wait, they'll eat it up.


Procheno said:
The synergy of marketing MP4 to the next gen switch would enhance the excitement for both and make both sell more as a result. Make it cross-platform day 1, Switch 1 & 2 on launch day. The Switch doesn't need MP4, the Switch 2 does (again especially if "lack of exciting software" was the reason for the delay)
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Prime is a small franchise. It's less successful than Pikmin. I love it, I love it so much. But no Nintendo console has needed Prime. If Prime 4 had come to the Wii U, and been the best selling Prime of all time, it still would barely crack the top ten on that smoking crater of a console. And conversely, even the Wii at its sales height could not get Prime 3 past Prime 2.

Perhaps Nintendo consoles have had holes in their schedules and needed something. But the evidence right now suggests that if that's true, its not true of Switch 2, which has had years of planning, and which is receiving extra development time and a reduced launch year with fewer slots to fill, but Switch 1, the console which recently had it's life extended by a whole extra holiday season, and whose first half of the year is packed with paint-by-numbers remasters of handheld games that didn't exactly set the world on fire the first time.
 
OMG, we have no idea what Prime 4 is or looks like.

If Prime 4 is an open world game that was attempting dynamic lighting, then the Switch 1 version will probably look fucking terrible compared to Prime Remastered and the Switch 2 version will end up being very necessary for the visual appeal so it should be cross-gen day 1.

If the game is an open world Soulslike, it could end up selling a lot.

If the game was scoped such that the Switch 1 version can't run better than 720p/30, then the Switch 2 version could also be very necessary and should be cross-gen day 1 to avoid negative reviews and impressions.

It could be that a Switch 2 version could have a complete lighting etc overhaul with much higher quality assets over the Switch 1 version.

This much discussion over a game with literally no details other than the main studio is so fucking weird.

I'm expecting a Doom Eternal clone with small environments that releases cross-gen Spring 2025, but it could be fucking anything.
 
Tentacle-tropes said:
You don’t lose >50% of your userbase game to game & blame it solely on external factors.
  • Prime2 would have significant decline even had it not gone against Halo. People had their fill of the first game & dipped. The fact it went against Halo just highlighted what people wanted versus Prime2
  • Prime3 did get marketing as apart of the ‘Wii Would Like to Play’ series both as a compilation & standalone segment. They even did a whole ‘Month of Metroid’ + a Wii Shop channel. It may not have been what you wanted but it is disingenuous to say that it didn’t get any.
The only thing Prime proved was showing there was a potential 3mil selling user base for Metroid. Which Dread eventually capitalized on but that does not mean it passed the litmus test. I remain skeptical that Prime4 is a breakout hit until they show otherwise. I think if it’s the same ol’ that Prime has been then I expect it to sell around the same.
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Possibly with Prime 2, although launching your game 3 days before before the blockbuster titan that was Halo 2, the biggest game of the year, didn't help anything.

Prime 3 got minimal marketing, it was a well documented phenomenon that IGN even wrote an article about it.

Dread showed there's a 3m~ base for 2D Metroid. 3D games consistently sell better than 2D games, they're simply just considered bigger and better. (I don't agree but that's the way it is). Prime 1-3 outsold the 2D Metroids of that era. I don't see any reason why Prime 4 wouldn't outsell Dread. If the game is good and marketed as a blockbuster Switch 2 title, it will easily sell 4-6m or more.
 
Tentacle-tropes said:
You don’t lose >50% of your userbase game to game & blame it solely on external factors.
  • Prime2 would have significant decline even had it not gone against Halo. People had their fill of the first game & dipped. The fact it went against Halo just highlighted what people wanted versus Prime2
  • Prime3 did get marketing as apart of the ‘Wii Would Like to Play’ series both as a compilation & standalone segment. They even did a whole ‘Month of Metroid’ + a Wii Shop channel. It may not have been what you wanted but it is disingenuous to say that it didn’t get any.
The only thing Prime proved was showing there was a potential 3mil selling user base for Metroid. Which Dread eventually capitalized on but that does not mean it passed the litmus test. I remain skeptical that Prime4 is a breakout hit until they show otherwise. I think if it’s the same ol’ that Prime has been then I expect it to sell around the same.
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Prime 2 came when the GC was already tumbling downwards, and seemed like more of the same.

Prime 3 was... A weird one. Instead of leaning into the alien atmosphere it tried to be a pseudo space opera (ok not really, but it felt to much like halo light in the design department, instead of leaning more towards metroids identity).

If MP4 manages to capture the isolationist exploration of an hostile planed feel and distinguishes itself in the gameplay AND presentation department I could see 4M potential customers
 
It would be pretty shocking to be more of the same after so many years in development and so many years after the original titles (with two of those games really not selling well at all), lol.

I'm expecting a Doom Eternal clone with Metroid elements, but anything from a roguelite to a soulslike to a multiplayer title to a God of War 2018 clone to an open world title wouldn't surprise me.
 
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There's some pretty huge things in the March data that I don't have time to compile right now. Will try to sort through it more after work.

Just to be clear up front, it's nothing about specs, BC, RAM/storage size, screen, etc. though -- yet.
 
LiC said:
There's some pretty huge things in the March data that I don't have time to compile right now. Will try to sort through it more after work.

Just to be clear up front, it's nothing about specs, BC, RAM/storage size, screen, etc. though -- yet.
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All the same - looking forward to your roundup/writeup as usual.

Quite a bit of new-ish stuff in the recent customs data, would love to hear your take on those.
 
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