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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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monkeygotyou said:
Maybe Mochizuki was actually leaking the name. It’s called the Nintendo Switch Now
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What about Nintendo AI? Or if it does come with the attachable screen, it van be called the Nintendo everything?
Danny said:
I'm mostly interested in the OS changes on the Switch 2, how radically different will the OS be? I hope they've gone all in on creating a better OS, eshop leading to a better user experience in every way.
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I think it depends on how Nintendo sees it. I assume they will expand features to compliment NSO with the OS. I could be wrong and they can stay the course of no new features but maybe a solid connection online. I mean they did sold 140 million console all with no themes, rare use invite system, and FC only. Who knows?
 
If Nintendo calls it the Switch 2, please make it a bit cooler by replacing the 2 with II:

Nintendo Switch II

Successor be like:

Nintendo Switch III
Nintendo Switch IV
Nintendo Switch V

Roman numbers give it a bit more artistic and interesting visual. At least for me. 😛
 
Apenknul said:
If Nintendo calls it the Switch 2, please make it a bit cooler by replacing the 2 with II:

Nintendo Switch II

Successor be like:

Nintendo Switch III
Nintendo Switch IV
Nintendo Switch V

Roman numbers give it a bit more artistic and interesting visual. At least for me. 😛
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That's what I've been saying for a while as well; they could even incorporate the roman numerals into the logo.
 
Apenknul said:
If Nintendo calls it the Switch 2, please make it a bit cooler by replacing the 2 with II:

Nintendo Switch II

Successor be like:

Nintendo Switch III
Nintendo Switch IV
Nintendo Switch V

Roman numbers give it a bit more artistic and interesting visual. At least for me. 😛
Click to expand...
Incorporating the number in the name is the way to go:

Nintendo SwIItch
Nintendo SwIIItch
Nintendo SwIVtch
Nintendo SwVtch
 
ARM's brief talk on bringing lumen to mobile



a video of their other RT demo showing RT AO, shadows, and reflections. runs between 30 and 60fps at 1600x720 and shadow resolution at 800x360

 
I like Super Switch. I just don't know that it's the best way for them to go. If not Switch 2, it's pretty much the best way for them to go.

The real question is if they decide to put the adjective before the noun or not. It may end up being the "Switch Super".
 
ziggyrivers said:
The Switch 2 could reach Switch levels of success if Nintendo extends the console’s lifetime like they did with the Switch. There’s an hypothesis Nintendo could have, and it’s that, since the Covid years won’t come back, extending the traditional console lifecycle could prove instrumental.

It wouldn’t suprise me if Nintendo decides to replicate the Switch revision route by giving us a Lite and a Screen Upgrade again, maybe add a Pro or a Mini revision.

Or maybe all if the above
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we're gonna have people whining about the poor tech 6 years into the Switch 2's life. they're also the same people who cry about having no games to look forward to except they do exist and it's on the Switch 2 that they abandoned :LOL:
 
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bmfrosty said:
I like Super Switch. I just don't know that it's the best way for them to go. If not Switch 2, it's pretty much the best way for them to go.

The real question is if they decide to put the adjective before the noun or not. It may end up being the "Switch Super".
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That sounds like a Pro rather than a new Console.
 
The Nintendo Swiss! Projects onto the wall or screen, VR, portable mode and hooks up to a tv!
swissarmyknife.jpg
 
Tentacle-tropes said:
The heights of the successor’s success will largely rest upon Nintendo 1st party software. The biggest issue to reaching current or future Switch numbers will be the two COVID years. There are ways for it to be mitigated though.
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I dont think The Switch 2 will beat the Switchs Record but I think it will do around 70 to 80 million units which is perfectly fine. I think the people who got into the switch just to play 3rd party games will probably be on steam deck or something similar because I would say 1/4th of the people who originally got the switch only cared about like skyrim or whatever 3rd party games it had and dididnt really care for Nintendo games. Those people have left and likely wont return. So but about 3/4ths of the people who have a switch use it for just Nintendo games (me included) so thats why I think around 70 to 80 million will be the amount it sells.
 
YugamiSekai said:
I still feel like Nintendo Switch (2nd Generation) as a name could still sneak up on us.
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Nintendo Switch (Taylor's Version)

Zedark said:
Nintendo Switch Part Two
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Directed by Denis Villeneuve

Apenknul said:
If Nintendo calls it the Switch 2, please make it a bit cooler by replacing the 2 with II:

Nintendo Switch II

Successor be like:

Nintendo Switch III
Nintendo Switch IV
Nintendo Switch V

Roman numbers give it a bit more artistic and interesting visual. At least for me. 😛
Click to expand...
Oh the Square approach! Then if they do mid-gen refreshes they can name them like Nintendo Switch IV-2
 
ziggyrivers said:
The Switch 2 could reach Switch levels of success if Nintendo extends the console’s lifetime like they did with the Switch. There’s an hypothesis Nintendo could have, and it’s that, since the Covid years won’t come back, extending the traditional console lifecycle could prove instrumental.
Click to expand...

Im not a big fan of these very long lifecycles, fatigue sets in for me after about 5-6 years and I am ready for upgraded hardware. However, I do believe longer life cycles are here to stay. Generational leaps are getting harder and harder for console makers to attain within the restrictions of a mass market price point. Technology was advancing so rapidly that for years it was possible to turn out a new console every 5-6 years that provided a generational leap and still hit the target price point. Take the Xbox to Xbox 360 transition, that was only a four year generation but Microsoft was able to go from a 20 Gflop console in 2001 to a 240 Gflop console, a 12x upgrade in only four years and that is still underselling the upgrade because programable shaders revolutionized graphics rendering at that time. Now compare that to the 5-6x upgrade for the PS4 to PS5 that took seven years and didn't bring along any revolutionary changes to rendering technology. If the PS5 were capable of making better use of Ray Tracing, then perhaps that would have been a revolutionary change in rendering technology, but because it is rather limited with most games sticking to more traditionally rendering techniques, its a more straightforward leap from the PS4 to PS5.

Because the road map for smaller and smaller nodes is rapidly slowing down, we know that we cannot expect to see significant performance improvements from smaller nodes in the future. Unless some completely new chip technology comes along and revolutionizes that industry and currently that doesn't appear to be happening any time real soon. Assuming T239 does end up being a 3Tflop SOC, it will be increasingly difficult to create an SOC that offers a 10x upgrade a handful of years later that still fits within the limitations of a hybrid console. Outside of a disaster with SNG where Nintendo is forced to hurry new hardware to market, I entirely expect Nintendo to enter this upcoming generation with the expectation of a 7-8 year life cycle.

I got my NES back in 1989, SNES in 1995, and N64 in 1997. In a shorter amount of time than Switch has been on the market, I went through three console generations. Its true that I got my NES and certainly the SNES a bit later in their life cycle, but even if you look at it from the perspective of release dates, the NES released in the US in 1986 and the N64 released in 1996. That's three consoles released in matter of a decade, and all of them provided significant upgrades. For those of us who are old enough, we were very fortunate live through the rapid advancements in gaming technology. Things are at a snails pace these days by comparison.
 
RealUncleNintendo said:
The Nintendo Swiss! Projects onto the wall or screen, VR, portable mode and hooks up to a tv!
swissarmyknife.jpg
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That reminds me of something what I shared a few months ago. :p

image.png

The 3D headset, where the system is wireless connected to the headset, giving you the nice stereoscopic 3D environment (like 3DS) within a headset, but where others can enjoy your gameplay by looking at the system's screen or TV.

You could say: Yo, why not intergrating VR in it, instead of just 3D? Well, with just stereoscopic 3D, the basic but strong traditional gameplay and controls would still exist, while that would be different with VR having all kinds different controls. I did play some VR games in a friends house a month ago (Amogus VR and Carve Snowboarding demo), and it was fun, but I still like to stick to traditional controls via a Pro Controller.
 
Apenknul said:
That reminds me of something what I shared a few months ago. :p

image.png

The 3D headset, where the system is wireless connected to the headset, giving you the nice stereoscopic 3D environment (like 3DS) within a headset, but where others can enjoy your gameplay by looking at the system's screen or TV.

You could say: Yo, why not intergrating VR in it, instead of just 3D? Well, with just stereoscopic 3D, the basic but strong traditional gameplay and controls would still exist, while that would be different with VR having all kinds different controls. I did play some VR games in a friends house a month ago (Amogus VR and Carve Snowboarding demo), and it was fun, but I still like to stick to traditional controls via a Pro Controller.
Click to expand...

interesting idea, i’m actually excited to see what they do for the new gimmick.
 
Bulborb said:
I dont think The Switch 2 will beat the Switchs Record but I think it will do around 70 to 80 million units which is perfectly fine. I think the people who got into the switch just to play 3rd party games will probably be on steam deck or something similar because I would say 1/4th of the people who originally got the switch only cared about like skyrim or whatever 3rd party games it had and dididnt really care for Nintendo games. Those people have left and likely wont return. So but about 3/4ths of the people who have a switch use it for just Nintendo games (me included) so thats why I think around 70 to 80 million will be the amount it sells.
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The Steam Deck is a non-factor here which also includes other handheld PCs. Their total sales maybe make up a FYQ of Nintendo’s. As we can clearly see from sales history across Switch’s, and other Nintendo devices, life; the 3rd party games that boost hardware are slim. 1st party is the hardware driver more often then not while 3rd party plays a support role. I’d doubt they are losing 25% of their player base who only cares about 3rd party & that number probably is closer to under 5%.

At a minimum I think Switch 2 is hitting 100mil. Anything below that essentially requires them to salvage whatever massive misstep they made.
 
SoldierDelta said:
I think "Switch 2" has a lot stronger marketing potential overall, especially if they have a minor gimmick that can tie to it. It practically writes itself at points tbh.

Super Switch implies a lot more power, but there's a lot less to be confused about if you follow a similar trend to how another leading brand names their consoles.
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The thing with switch 2, is that I just can’t see Nintendo doing that, they could have named the Wii U the Wii 2 or the gameboy advance the gameboy 2.

Nintendo isn’t Sony, when it comes to naming their systems with numbers.

Like Super Nintendo Switch is the only logical name I can think of, which won’t cause mass confusion, like the Wii U. It will in the end depends on marketing and showcase of switch 2 exclusives that will sell the system and not the name. (Wii U marketing, makes me want to crawl and cry, with how dog water it was, thankfully I don’t see them making that blunder)

Like the switch 2 is the most simple console name Nintendo can to, but sadly I just can’t see Nintendo using a number for their next switch.
 
gonanzir said:
guess it's a parody of the 3ds name, is 3switch.
edit:maybe 4switch is batter choice
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I mean, if they're gonna follow the iPhone naming structure like many have suggested then the next system is gonna be the Switch 3 anyway so 🤷
 
Goodtwin said:
Now compare that to the 5-6x upgrade for the PS4 to PS5 that took seven years and didn't bring along any revolutionary changes to rendering technology. If the PS5 were capable of making better use of Ray Tracing, then perhaps that would have been a revolutionary change in rendering technology, but because it is rather limited with most games sticking to more traditionally rendering techniques, its a more straightforward leap from the PS4 to PS5.
Click to expand...
Just a little correction, it's closer to 8x when considering the architectural delta between RDNA2 and GCN1 and it did bring revolutionary changes to rendering technology, they're called mesh/primitive shaders (or the geometry engine, like Cerny called it). No one is using them let alone as effectively as Epic's implementation baptized as Nanite, but we already saw what they can do with several tech demos (not to say a game supposed to ship next year).
 
Bulborb said:
I dont think The Switch 2 will beat the Switchs Record but I think it will do around 70 to 80 million units which is perfectly fine. I think the people who got into the switch just to play 3rd party games will probably be on steam deck or something similar because I would say 1/4th of the people who originally got the switch only cared about like skyrim or whatever 3rd party games it had and dididnt really care for Nintendo games. Those people have left and likely wont return. So but about 3/4ths of the people who have a switch use it for just Nintendo games (me included) so thats why I think around 70 to 80 million will be the amount it sells.
Click to expand...
70 to 80 million would be a MASSIVE contraction from the Switch. I’d say it’s far more likely to be within 10-15 million of the original Switch’s sales, if not closer, than anything else. Most folk who game on handhelds and consoles don’t really care much or game on these handheld PCs and, unless they fuck up with an essential part of the Switch 2, most folk would be back. These days, folk are kinda locked in to their ecosystems. Plus, there are a few things they can do with the Switch 2 that they didn’t do with the Switch, like a price drop or a pro revision
 
SuperFakerBros said:
70 to 80 million would be a MASSIVE contraction from the Switch. I’d say it’s far more likely to be within 10-15 million of the original Switch’s sales, if not closer, than anything else. Most folk who game on handhelds and consoles don’t really care much or game on these handheld PCs and, unless they fuck up with an essential part of the Switch 2, most folk would be back
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You are assuming that the majority of Switch owners are gamers, which I can anecdotally say is false. There will be a lot of Switch owners who won't buy the next system.
 
Individualised said:
You are assuming that the majority of Switch owners are gamers, which I can anecdotally say is false. There will be a lot of Switch owners who won't buy the next system.
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The overall attach rate for the system is good and I don’t see why the trends that hold true for the other two console manufacturers won’t hold true here, where most folk do stick with the brand they had, so as long as they don’t fuck up. It’s not the Wii, which had sales drop off rapidly after a few years. It’s had the same sort of momentum that the PS4 had during its life

Also not everyone who owns a PS or an Xbox are gamers either, a lot of them will play or buy a game here and there and not much more than that, but most folk still move on to the next one. Anecdotes don’t mean too much

If the Switch 2 sells less than 110 million, you can quote this post and tell me that I’m wrong
 
Bulborb said:
I dont think The Switch 2 will beat the Switchs Record but I think it will do around 70 to 80 million units which is perfectly fine. I think the people who got into the switch just to play 3rd party games will probably be on steam deck or something similar because I would say 1/4th of the people who originally got the switch only cared about like skyrim or whatever 3rd party games it had and dididnt really care for Nintendo games. Those people have left and likely wont return. So but about 3/4ths of the people who have a switch use it for just Nintendo games (me included) so thats why I think around 70 to 80 million will be the amount it sells.
Click to expand...
There is no plane of reality where 25% of Switch owners showed up primarily for 3rd party software and just aren't interested in Nintendo software.

The primary factor for Nintendo's hardware sales are 1st party software and hardware cost. Leaving aside hardware cost, how much Switch 2 sells above or below Switch 1 is very heavily dependent upon the timing and quality of:

Mario Kart
Animal Crossing
Pokemon
Smash Bros
A breakout hit in a genre Sony and Microsoft don't touch

There are also series like Zelda and mainline Mario games that can frequently graduate into sales juggernauts, as seen on Switch, but I think the list of titles above form the core of what Nintendo typically penetrates into mass culture with, and constitute the typical games the average consumer will buy with the hardware even years after release.
 
ohlawd said:
that would suck. isn't PS4 lifetime at 120m? I dunno why the world decided to buy that many PS4s but Switch 2 selling less than 125m I would be disappointed
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It wouldn't, that's pretty damn good for an iterative successor on a handheld form factor. There'll always be a need for more power in the home console space, handhelds are different, plus they don't have to get all the games.
 
KarlRemarx said:
There is no plane of reality where 25% of Switch owners showed up primarily for 3rd party software and just aren't interested in Nintendo software.

The primary factor for Nintendo's hardware sales are 1st party software and hardware cost. Leaving aside hardware cost, how much Switch 2 sells above or below Switch 1 is very heavily dependent upon the timing and quality of:

Mario Kart
Animal Crossing
Pokemon
Smash Bros
A breakout hit in a genre Sony and Microsoft don't touch

There are also series like Zelda and mainline Mario games that can frequently graduate into sales juggernauts, as seen on Switch, but I think the list of titles above form the core of what Nintendo typically penetrates into mass culture with, and constitute the typical games the average consumer will buy with the hardware even years after release.
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Idk I know about 30 people Irl who have a switch and 10 of them sold their switches and got a Steam Deck or just Use the Steam Deck and now dont touch their switch systems. My best friend is one of them and hes a Pikmin die hard like me. Instead of buying pikmin 4 for switch and getting a switch again he legit just played it on his steam deck.

I know this is just what I see in my own area but Online with youtubers you see it as something thats very common as well.

I will never sell my switch I use it every single day. But I have to acknowledge what I see around me.
 
I think using the 3DS as a baseline isn't bad. In many respects it should have been a harder sale than the Wii U, with hardware so far behind mobile tech of the period, and lacking in anything nearly as functional. But it managed to claw a respectable number thanks to just how strong the software was. Much to the detriment of Wii U development, the 3DS was able to get some consistent numbers.

If anything, the Wii U is the anomaly of what we can expect from software releases. Wii U had more gaps than N64 ever had.
 
Mer.Saloon said:
I think using the 3DS as a baseline isn't bad. In many respects it should have been a harder sale than the Wii U, with hardware so far behind mobile tech of the period, and lacking in anything nearly as functional. But it managed to claw a respectable number thanks to just how strong the software was. Much to the detriment of Wii U development, the 3DS was able to get some consistent numbers.

If anything, the Wii U is the anomaly of what we can expect from software releases. Wii U had more gaps than N64 ever had.
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I see the Switch 2 being just as succesful as the GBA. A bit more units sold than the 3ds because now all Nintendo games are on one system instead of being split between handheld and home console, but not as succesful with the gamers who bought the switch to play skyrim and doom, etc. Because they did this before the pc handhelds were a thing.

right around 81 million Is my gut feeling for switch 2 lol.
 
Bulborb said:
I dont think The Switch 2 will beat the Switchs Record but I think it will do around 70 to 80 million units which is perfectly fine. I think the people who got into the switch just to play 3rd party games will probably be on steam deck or something similar because I would say 1/4th of the people who originally got the switch only cared about like skyrim or whatever 3rd party games it had and dididnt really care for Nintendo games. Those people have left and likely wont return. So but about 3/4ths of the people who have a switch use it for just Nintendo games (me included) so thats why I think around 70 to 80 million will be the amount it sells.
Click to expand...
Btw your math doesn’t check out at all, the switch is going to sell at minimum 150m (probably more but let’s keep it at that), if you’re expecting that 1/4 of the switch user base won’t buy a new switch that would put it at 112m units sold. If you’re expecting only 70-80m units sold then it would be a decline of over half the user base of the first switch
 
Kartina said:
Btw your math doesn’t check out at all, the switch is going to sell at minimum 150m (probably more but let’s keep it at that), if you’re expecting that 1/4 of the switch user base won’t buy a new switch that would put it at 112m units sold. If you’re expecting only 70-80m units sold then it would be a decline of over half the user base of the first switch
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Oh for some reason I thought it was at around 101 million units. My bad. Yea then I would revise my Guesstimation to be 112. Idk y I thought 100 I even looked up the sales for it last week lol probably a brainfart sorry about that.
 
0
Bulborb said:
Idk I know about 30 people Irl who have a switch and 10 of them sold their switches and got a Steam Deck or just Use the Steam Deck and now dont touch their switch systems. My best friend is one of them and hes a Pikmin die hard like me. Instead of buying pikmin 4 for switch and getting a switch again he legit just played it on his steam deck.

I know this is just what I see in my own area but Online with youtubers you see it as something thats very common as well.

I will never sell my switch I use it every single day. But I have to acknowledge what I see around me.
Click to expand...
Anecdotes can go both ways. Almost everyone I know IRL in my age group has a Switch. No exaggeration. Exactly zero of them have a Steam Deck, and most of them have never even heard of it. They know PS and Xbox, one of them has a PS5 (maybe two), and I know nobody with a Series. The only place I hear about people being dissatisfied with Switch performance and leaving it behind for other systems is in online enthusiast spaces. But outside of those, the Switch is huge.
 
chocolate_supra said:
Anecdotes can go both ways. Almost everyone I know IRL in my age group has a Switch. No exaggeration. Exactly zero of them have a Steam Deck, and most of them have never even heard of it. They know PS and Xbox, one of them has a PS5 (maybe two), and I know nobody with a Series. The only place I hear about people being dissatisfied with Switch performance and leaving it behind for other systems is in online enthusiast spaces. But outside of those, the Switch is huge.
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Your lucky. I mean I love my friends irl but man hardly any of them have the same gaming interests as me lol
 
Lancelot said:
Just a little correction, it's closer to 8x when considering the architectural delta between RDNA2 and GCN1 and it did bring revolutionary changes to rendering technology, they're called mesh/primitive shaders (or the geometry engine, like Cerny called it). No one is using them let alone as effectively as Epic's implementation baptized as Nanite, but we already saw what they can do with several tech demos (not to say a game supposed to ship next year).
Click to expand...

True, but then we would have to apply that to the Xbox to Xbox 360, so instead of a 12x advancement, it would be more like 15-20x. Also, compared to going from fixed function shaders in the Xbox to DX9 level programmable shaders, this was a completely change in rendering technology. Mesh shaders would still be a extension of programable shaders and I see that as more evolutionary rather than revolutionary. Ray Tracing would be revolutionary because it completely changes the way rendering works, but PS5 and the Series consoles do not have adequate Ray Tracing performance to fully embrace it.

I would argue that since 2005, graphics rendering has been evolutionary. With the PS3 and even the 360 (albeit to a lesser extent), developers were utilizing the CPU's to implement rendering techniques that weren't supported on the DX9 GPU's those consoles had equipped. Which means there were games on the PS3/360 using rendering techniques that didn't become standard until the following generation, and that softened the wow factor when those new console launched. I would argue that the leap from PS4 to PS5 is even less pronounced. Its more of the same by in large. Yes, there are numerous improvements, but many of these improvements require the player to really look for those more nuanced details. This is subjective of course. What I consider to a modest leap forward in graphics technology another person maybe find it to be absolutely jaw dropping.
 
Kartina said:
Btw your math doesn’t check out at all, the switch is going to sell at minimum 150m (probably more but let’s keep it at that), if you’re expecting that 1/4 of the switch user base won’t buy a new switch that would put it at 112m units sold. If you’re expecting only 70-80m units sold then it would be a decline of over half the user base of the first Switch
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Nintendo will have a very hard time to transition most of Switch userbase to it next console
 
Bulborb said:
Your lucky. I mean I love my friends irl but man hardly any of them have the same gaming interests as me lol
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I mean honestly, none of my friends have the same gaming interests as me either. 🤣

We all have Switches but I'm the only one who is into the Xeno series, I'm the only one who digs deep into indies and retro-style games, I'm the only one chasing JRPG (and JRPG-style) games.. We do all line up on Zelda and a small few of my friends play Kirby and Yoshi, but most of what they play is the sort of stuff I don't: Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart, Smash...

But the fact that there's such a huge span of tastes being served on Switch I think is part of why it's been so successful.
 
Giancarlo said:
convince people they need a Switch sucessor, why do i need a Switch sucessor, when i already have my Switch that did everything this console do but better
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I have no idea how Nintendo could botch the marketing so hard that people would think that the new hardware is not only redundant to what they currently own, but is also somehow less powerful than than what they currently own. Unless the next Mario looks like a N64 game, I legitimately have no idea how this would happen.
 
Giancarlo said:
convince people they need a Switch sucessor, why do i need a Switch sucessor, when i already have my Switch that did everything this console do but better
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Improved hardware performance? Things the successor can do that the Switch cannot? Games? First-party titles built exclusively for the new hardware that cannot run on the original Switch? Why did people buy a PS2 when they had a PS1? Why did people buy an Xbox 360 when they had an original Xbox? New hardware and new games/experiences is what convinces people to move on to the next big thing.
 
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