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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

With 12 RT cores and a lower clock on handheld, I'm not expecting much of RT capabilities on switch 2. To be honest, I was surprised when I saw that the T239 had RT cores. I think Nintendo will make good use of it in certain games, but I'm not demanding anything from them is this space.
 
and RTXRemix is kinda a hack anyway. definitely the worse way to add RT to a game
I don't mean to talk it down, it's insanely cool. But the whole point of it is to bring GPUs to their knees by ray-tracing every single pixel on screen. But that level of comprehensive path tracing simply isn't feasible on modern consoles, so it's kind of a straw man in the context of this thread.

March 2024:
"... And one more thing. Portal RTX will release as a free update for Portal Compation Collection for Switch RTX! - drops mic -."

One can dream, right!? :p
Dream rationally!
 


Looks like on PS5, denoising RT reflections takes around 1ms. With [Redacted] probably being around a 1/4 the performance of the PS5, it looks like RR is definitely gonna be more costly in its native form.
But it wouldn't be unbelievable that they'd make a lite version of it.

Ray-Reconstruction, from what we've seen, looks so much better than traditional denoisers it borders on overkill. They can probably make a smaller version that still looks better than traditional denoising but performs the same or better.
 
so apologies in advance if i seemed too many questions regarding games lol, too overexcited sadly, but i'd like to ask:
Aside from possibly Mihoyo games, massively possibly FF7R & 3D mario, what other rumored/speculated games we have so far for Drake?

I would expect Genshin, Assassin's Creed Valhalla, Kingdom Hearts collection, SF6, the five Resident Evil games on PS4, other stuff of that nature.

Anything that can be done on a PS4 and should fit well with the Switch audience.

For first-party stuff, it's more up in the air.
 
so apologies in advance if i seemed too many questions regarding games lol, too overexcited sadly, but i'd like to ask:
Aside from possibly Mihoyo games, massively possibly FF7R & 3D mario, what other rumored/speculated games we have so far for Drake?
Metroid Prime 4, Mariokart Whatever
 


Looks like on PS5, denoising RT reflections takes around 1ms. With [Redacted] probably being around a 1/4 the performance of the PS5, it looks like RR is definitely gonna be more costly in its native form.
But it wouldn't be unbelievable that they'd make a lite version of it.

Ray-Reconstruction, from what we've seen, looks so much better than traditional denoisers it borders on overkill. They can probably make a smaller version that still looks better than traditional denoising but performs the same or better.

was this image assuming native 2160p?
 
I would expect Genshin, Assassin's Creed Valhalla, Kingdom Hearts collection, SF6, the five Resident Evil games on PS4, other stuff of that nature.

Anything that can be done on a PS4 and should fit well with the Switch audience.

For first-party stuff, it's more up in the air.
Ah, yes, Genshin. You can run that game on your current Switch... if you hack it and install android.
 
My "whole argument" is that the Switch 2 will likely not be powerful enough to use ray-tracing in a meaningful way outside of a few edge cases. This is shown by the fact that much more powerful hardware is still brought to its knees by ray-tracing. There is just not enough raw power. The 2070 is 3-6x as powerful as the Switch 2 and runs Portal RTX (a case of a game with more modern looking visuals with high quality ray-tracing) at a non-playable framerate.

The PS5 is complete garbage at ray-tracing and the Switch's superior architecture for RT isn't making up a 6x gap of power between the Switch 2 and the PS5 and then going further beyond to "actually not garbage at ray-tracing."
I'd say PS5 and Series can technically do better RT than Switch 2 ever will, but that is at the cost of spending shaders to do it as that's how AMD handles it (just like with FSR). Nvidia GPUs, and Switch 2, can provide RT separately in its own pipeline. What % of shaders would PS5/Series have to allocate for equivalent RT results? We don't know, but if it's a lot, then that would be too much taken from overall rendering. They could use FSR to help, but that's also relies on shaders, which Nvidia/Switch2 do not have to worry about.
 
As far as the next device's ray-tracing capabilities go, I think it's important to keep expectations in check.

Definitely think they will be implementing DLSS Ray Reconstruction at least on a feature set level as it is something that is supported even on Turing (RTX 20 series) GPUs.

I wouldn't expect all games to run at 60FPS with ray-tracing by any stretch of the imagination of course. It's important to note that in order for ray-traced graphics to run well, rasterization also has to run well. I'd wager the new Switch's ray-tracing performance greatly exceeds current-gen consoles (Ampere RT cores are miles beyond RDNA2 RT hardware) but in a like-for-like scenario there will still be cutbacks because at the end of the day this is a ~15W device.

The fact that Activision for example stated that the next Switch is in the same ballpark as the PS4/Xbox One is very telling - I'm 90% sure they are referring to rasterization performance only.

So what would run better at a render resolution of say 720p-1080p with ray tracing enabled (before upscaling to UHD)? The docked Super Switch with near PS4/Xbox One raster performance but ray-tracing performance that falls maybe a little short of something like the RTX 3050 Laptop GPU (so pretty good RT)? The Xbox Series S with almost Xbox One X raster performance but pretty poor RDNA2 RT? The PS5 with almost twice the raster performance of the PS4 Pro or the Xbox Series X with almost twice the raster performance of the Xbox One X but similarly poor RT?

I think the results would be a lot closer than one would initially think even with NVIDIA's RT advantage. IMO the Super Switch would be lucky to edge out the Series S in a like-for-like scenario with ray-tracing on.

However the real, tangible benefit that the Switch will have is DLSS. DLSS looks goddamn amazing on PC and that's what I genuinely believe will bring the overall image quality up to snuff with current-gen. Coupled with Ray Reconstruction, I think it's gonna make Super Switch games actually look comparable to or better than at least the Series S and leagues beyond something like the Steam Deck or ROG Ally.
 
Looks like on PS5, denoising RT reflections takes around 1ms. With [Redacted] probably being around a 1/4 the performance of the PS5, it looks like RR is definitely gonna be more costly in its native form.
But it wouldn't be unbelievable that they'd make a lite version of it.
RDNA2 RT is inherently different so it maybe much cheaper on drake than you think it will be
 
A rational point to start a conversation about Drake's ray tracing capabalilities is to assume that it won't be better than what is being done on current gen hardware, but to rather see it as being 'visually acceptable' in handheld mode.

This way, arguments won't slowly snowball to exaggerated takes.
 
so apologies in advance if i seemed too many questions regarding games lol, too overexcited sadly, but i'd like to ask:
Aside from possibly Mihoyo games, massively possibly FF7R & 3D mario, what other rumored/speculated games we have so far for Drake?
No real rumors on the game front just hopes and speculation. I guess the next Nier game could be on it unless square enix does something crazy with it.
 
Now that I think about it, Intel's research paper on their RR equivalent had frame time costs for various denoisers on rtx 3070, that would be a much better indicator (precise numbers and same architecture). Looking into that asap.
 
As far as the next device's ray-tracing capabilities go, I think it's important to keep expectations in check.

Definitely think they will be implementing DLSS Ray Reconstruction at least on a feature set level as it is something that is supported even on Turing (RTX 20 series) GPUs.

I wouldn't expect all games to run at 60FPS with ray-tracing by any stretch of the imagination of course. It's important to note that in order for ray-traced graphics to run well, rasterization also has to run well. I'd wager the new Switch's ray-tracing performance greatly exceeds current-gen consoles (Ampere RT cores are miles beyond RDNA2 RT hardware) but in a like-for-like scenario there will still be cutbacks because at the end of the day this is a ~15W device.

The fact that Activision for example stated that the next Switch is in the same ballpark as the PS4/Xbox One is very telling - I'm 90% sure they are referring to rasterization performance only.

So what would run better at a render resolution of say 720p-1080p with ray tracing enabled (before upscaling to UHD)? The docked Super Switch with near PS4/Xbox One raster performance but ray-tracing performance that falls maybe a little short of something like the RTX 3050 Laptop GPU (so pretty good RT)? The Xbox Series S with almost Xbox One X raster performance but pretty poor RDNA2 RT? The PS5 with almost twice the raster performance of the PS4 Pro or the Xbox Series X with almost twice the raster performance of the Xbox One X but similarly poor RT?

I think the results would be a lot closer than one would initially think even with NVIDIA's RT advantage. IMO the Super Switch would be lucky to edge out the Series S in a like-for-like scenario with ray-tracing on.

However the real, tangible benefit that the Switch will have is DLSS. DLSS looks goddamn amazing on PC and that's what I genuinely believe will bring the overall image quality up to snuff with current-gen. Coupled with Ray Reconstruction, I think it's gonna make Super Switch games actually look comparable to or better than at least the Series S and leagues beyond something like the Steam Deck or ROG Ally.
Quoting myself because I forgot to add, but another thing to note is Nintendo EPD's art style which has consistently lent itself well to keeping render budgets conservative. That goes a long way for first-party titles that do end up utilizing ray-tracing in some capacity. When you factor in all of those individual advantages, first-party Nintendo games running at 720p-1440p@30FPS upscaled to 4K with DLSS and ray-tracing enabled when the device is docked isn't super impossible either.
 
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A rational point to start a conversation about Drake's ray tracing capabalilities is to assume that it won't be better than what is being done on current gen hardware, but to rather see it as being 'visually acceptable' in handheld mode.

This way, arguments won't slowly snowball to exaggerated takes.
I like to start at lowest common denominators. now it's gonna be phones, but I don't think there will be too many games showing off RT, unfortunately. APUs being the step up, and now Intel has entered the game as of today. gonna be really fun to see how Meteor Lake fares in Speed Way benchmark
 
Best case scenario, everyone resigns and Nintendo is left with a shell of a company. The new Nintendo becomes so westernized that Zelda literally becomes an AC clone and Mario Kart becomes a forza clone focused on realism.
I think I'm gonna be sick......
 


Haha charts go brrrr
Breakdown coming sometime soon.
Unless someone more knowledgeable in the ways of rendering than me wants to do it.
 
The fact that Activision for example stated that the next Switch is in the same ballpark as the PS4/Xbox One is very telling - I'm 90% sure they are referring to rasterization performance only.
Articles like from TheVerge say Activision mentioned the performance of the Switch 2 as something definitive, but what Activision actually said was this...
Given the closer alignment to Gen8 platforms in terms of performance and our previous offerings on PS4 / Xbox One, it is reasonable to assume we could make something compelling for the NG Switch as well. It would be helpful to secure early access to development hardware prototypes and prove that out nice and early.
They aren't sure of its power, but feel confident that what they offered on PS4/XB1 would likely be possible on the Switch 2. Seems more like an "at least" scenario.
 
If Nintendo pushes for 16GB of RAM then they would have a really nice buffer against Apple's hardware performance dominance. Switch having 33% more RAM than an iPhone X was one big factor on why it was able to have a performance advantage on actual games. Now Imagine a 100% advantage over the iPhone 15 (16 vs 8GB)! Image Nintendo PR wins if Resident Evil and Assasin Creed is running much better assets than an $1k iPhone 16 Pro.
The iphone is a phone first then it's a gaming device second, early benchmark from a leaked review from china shows a modest increase in performance from the a16 to a17.

Although it's a synthetic benchmark, the increase in power consumption and heat would lead to a larger issue when gaming for long periods of time. Once again, I wouldn't worry too much about the gaming performance of the iphone 15 as the iphone 15 is a cellphone that can play games but it doesn't mean it can play all the games as well as the switch 2 which is primarily a gaming device that is prioritize to play games and not be used as a tablet or phone.

 
The iphone is a phone first then it's a gaming device second, early benchmark from a leaked review from china shows a modest increase in performance from the a16 to a17.

Although it's a synthetic benchmark, the increase in power consumption and heat would lead to a larger issue when gaming for long periods of time. Once again, I wouldn't worry too much about the gaming performance of the iphone 15 as the iphone 15 is a cellphone that can play games but it doesn't mean it can play all the games as well as the switch 2 which is primarily a gaming device that is prioritize to play games and not be used as a tablet or phone.


iPhone is also generationally behind in CPU layout as regards gaming. The 2 high performance codes, 4 low power cores thing makes sense for moment to moment phone stuff, but it means modern games making use of multithreading really only have two threads of very much mobile performance to work with. I just wouldn't expect Gen9 games to hit iPhone for another half dozen generations of iPhone with a design like that. While A78C in T239 may be less performant per core...

Games have access to 7 high performance threads, rather than 2, and that makes a considerable difference.

It's very strange to me, sometimes, how powerful iPhone is, especially 14 Pro and 15 Pro, but how their design works against that power, and their power works against their design. Less silicon could have meant better battery life and an identical experience in 99% of applications. Sometimes I wonder if they don't just do it for bragging rights- which they do in part, good silicon is now part of their brand, part of their marketing, and iPhone is a safe brand that will succeed in some capacity no matter what happens, so they can experiment with features (like MetalFX Upscaling) on it without feeling financial burn.
 
It makes more sense for MS than for Sony to do a handheld, considering their first party already targets the series s and pc. But I guess AMD tech is not quite there yet for an affordable handheld with easy Series S ports. But I could see it happening in the future.
I find the controllers of the pyramid a little curious- it sort of seems like controller intent has moved on since it was created, since "Sebille" has become Sebile, the "Premium" controller (knocking luxury off the table), while we have renders for the new "Core" controller (non-Sebile refresh with Xbox Wireless 2 but no accelerometers or fancy rumble, etc.) and the new "Elite" (Series 3).

Plus, the "Media Remote" appears to have become the "One Hand Controller" on a later slide, alongside a (primitive but present) render of the handheld.
 
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so apologies in advance if i seemed too many questions regarding games lol, too overexcited sadly, but i'd like to ask:
Aside from possibly Mihoyo games, massively possibly FF7R & 3D mario, what other rumored/speculated games we have so far for Drake?
Astral Chain 2, Dragon Quest 3 HD-2D, Monster Hunter Something, Dragon Ball, Kid Icarus, Monolith Soft action game, Just Dance, FF9, Lego Something, Drake Sports, Fortnite, Elden Ring + DLC, Metaphor, Disgaea 99... And many more!

Oh, and the Fire Emblem remake
 
As I’m now on page 1644, I have other thoughts, this time concerning March 2024.

I'm playing devil’s advocate here, but what if March 2024 is simply Nintendo making a big anniversary announcement the Switch is 7 years old?

No Switch 2, no price drop of Switch 1, just an announcement the Switch is 7 years old, and still going strong.

Gotta keep the Fami folks guessing. :devilish:
 
It makes more sense for MS than for Sony to do a handheld, considering their first party already targets the series s and pc. But I guess AMD tech is not quite there yet for an affordable handheld with easy Series S ports. But I could see it happening in the future.
It also makes more sense for MS to go for doing a handheld out of desperation for mitigating losses in the home console market.
 
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Between my nephew and all his friends, no one seems to care about Nintendo (except for pokémon). They are all about PC (with MODs), xbox, and phones, and games like Ark, Minecraft (of course), Roblox, Fortnite, and things like that. They almost don't care about singleplayer games.

As I’m now on page 1644, I have other thoughts, this time concerning March 2024.

I'm playing devil’s advocate here, but what if March 2024 is simply Nintendo making a big anniversary announcement the Switch is 7 years old?

No Switch 2, no price drop of Switch 1, just an announcement the Switch is 7 years old, and still going strong.

Gotta keep the Fami folks guessing. :devilish:

T239 cancelled [for nintendo]. Road to 2027 (launching with the next mario kart, finally)
 
Between my nephew and all his friends, no one seems to care about Nintendo (except for pokémon). They are all about PC (with MODs), xbox, and phones, and games like Ark, Minecraft (of course), Roblox, Fortnite, and things like that. They almost don't care about singleplayer games.
well, the good thing is that social/multiplayer games are quickly trending towards all the systems being playable with each other. minecraft is only fractured through java and redstone, but I wonder if MS will overcome that
 
I don't know what the hardware techies think, but my experience of ray tracing so far is that it's either a total lighting solution or it's close to unnoticeable.

With Switch, I can't imagine you're going to get any fully ray traced games so I just can't care very much, and I'm wondering why they're bothering. I don't think the performance hit is worth it for prettier shadows, puddles and windows. Are there even good examples on XSX or PS5 of otherwise - where ray tracing makes a big difference without a huge hit to performance?

Even just googling "ray tracing worth it" shows recent tech articles / youtube vids from this year stating that it isn't.

What's the answer here, is this just nVidia pushing the tech because they know that one day it'll be how all games are fully rendered? Is it something any of you are legitimately excited about?
 
I don't know how correlated UFS costs are with SSD costs so it's not clear.

I expect 512 just because Nintendo very much wants people to buy digitally as much as possible.
In want to believe in 512GB, but I have zero expectations that will happen outside a higher end priced SKU that offers that amount alongside a cheaper one at launch or later in switch 2's lifecycle like switch OLED.

They went 16GB and 32GB on Wii U, then 32GB and 64GB on Switch.

I mean we're gonna get games that are double in size now.. if not triple for certain third party games. But I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo gives the bare minimum for third parties, while expecting consumers to pay for the difference with SD cards. And by that I mean 128GB or 256GB UFS 3.1 for an entry level launch SKU for $400.

I don't think they would dare with 64GB storage.

Hopefully 32GB carts are as cheap as 16GB carts on switch by the time Switch 2 launches.
Supposed they're using newer and cheaper ones than the current ones on switch.

It would make the SOC more expensive per unit despite the decreased wafer cost, since each SOC would use so much more silicon.

And it would consume more power.

Also Nvidia doesn't make anything on 6nm.

And by 4nm I mean 4N (actually 5nm).
Unless TSMC had a bunch of excess 6nm wafers lying around and offered a cheaper price for Nvidia and Nintendo vs 5nm.. 🤔

I forgot what the dye size would be for 6nm. @Thraktor was is you who made the theoretical size for all the possible nodes for Switch 2 (8nm Samsung, 7/6nm tsmc, 5nm tsmc)?

If I recall the dye size was just enough/not too large.

@Dakhil have you given up on 6nm tsmc as a possibility? Of course the node (whatever it is) is already chosen long ago.
 
With 12 RT cores and a lower clock on handheld, I'm not expecting much of RT capabilities on switch 2. To be honest, I was surprised when I saw that the T239 had RT cores. I think Nintendo will make good use of it in certain games, but I'm not demanding anything from them is this space.

Give me RT Mario Sunshine.
 
jesus christ, yall raising super soldiers or something?
He has a couple videos up from when he was 7 playing it on YouTube. It’s all public but I’m still apprehensive to share lol - it’s cute tho.

Also he’d be like 9 now. Not 11.
 
the ps5 and XSX have drift too. It's not just a Nintendo thing
Yes, but not remotely close to the joycons drift case.

Can confirm, my DualSense has been in a far worse situation than the JoyCons, not to mention Nintendo has repaired my JoyCon drifting twice and for free (even shipping charges on them) while Sony was basically like "go fuck yourself lmaoo".

Ultimately my Right Dualsense Stick got completely broken and I got the revisioned model which is doing great.. So far.
And you know exactly why Nintendo fixed them for free. Because of the massive joycons drift backlash and lawsuit in the US. Otherwise they'd have treated you just the same as Sony, which in fact what happened to me because I don't live in the US. They didn't even bother acknowledging the drift after I sent it to them and made me pay for shipping and other costs. Asshats.

In the end I fixed it myself using the cardboard fix. But even this didn't last long.
 
well, the good thing is that social/multiplayer games are quickly trending towards all the systems being playable with each other. minecraft is only fractured through java and redstone, but I wonder if MS will overcome that
I'm pretty sure, though not entirely, that you mean bedrock

I'm sure someone will port minecraft to redstone soon enough though
 
Yes, but not remotely close to the joycons drift case.


And you know exactly why Nintendo fixed them for free. Because of the massive joycons drift backlash and lawsuit in the US. Otherwise they'd have treated you just the same as Sony, which in fact what happened to me because I don't live in the US. They didn't even bother acknowledging the drift after I sent it to them and made me pay for shipping and other costs. Asshats.

In the end I fixed it myself using the cardboard fix. But even this didn't last long.
only reason Sony and MS weren't sued is because their consoles came out later, that's it. There were articles about them drifting literally months after they came out
 
Quoted by: TLZ
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I can actually see a world where such a merger would be a very good thing. I mean it will more than likely destroy the Nintendo we know and love but... suppose it doesn't? What a value GamePass would have and the powerful consoles/PC releases of Nintendo software? They can give their teams even more time/resources to develop their games. The pressure to have tentpole console selling titles changes. They can be quirky and fun as they want.

Also Sony will buy Sega and we'll get a whole new era of Mario vs Sonic.
No thanks. I don't want anyone anywhere near Nintendo.
 
In want to believe in 512GB, but I have zero expectations that will happen outside a higher end priced SKU that offers that amount alongside a cheaper one at launch or later in switch 2's lifecycle like switch OLED.

They went 16GB and 32GB on Wii U, then 32GB and 64GB on Switch.

I mean we're gonna get games that are double in size now.. if not triple for certain third party games. But I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo gives the bare minimum for third parties, while expecting consumers to pay for the difference with SD cards. And by that I mean 128GB or 256GB UFS 3.1 for an entry level launch SKU for $400.

I don't think they would dare with 64GB storage.

Hopefully 32GB carts are as cheap as 16GB carts on switch by the time Switch 2 launches.
Supposed they're using newer and cheaper ones than the current ones on switch.


Unless TSMC had a bunch of excess 6nm wafers lying around and offered a cheaper price for Nvidia and Nintendo vs 5nm.. 🤔

I forgot what the dye size would be for 6nm. @Thraktor was is you who made the theoretical size for all the possible nodes for Switch 2 (8nm Samsung, 7/6nm tsmc, 5nm tsmc)?

If I recall the dye size was just enough/not too large.

@Dakhil have you given up on 6nm tsmc as a possibility? Of course the node (whatever it is) is already chosen long ago.
One point of consideration here is the rise of digital for Nintendo.
Third parties may also pressure for higher storage capacities so their games will be downloaded out of the box without the need for an additional spend for the consumer. That's assuming microSD is supported still, which we are assuming will be, but is not a guarantee unless Nintendo specifies it.

On that end, i feel like 4x over launch Switch of 32GB is bare minimum. They may go 4x over OLED instead, which would land us at 256
 
only reason Sony and MS weren't sued is because their consoles came out later, that's it. There were articles about them drifting literally months after they came out
No. Controllers always had drift issues for a very long time. But again, not anywhere remotely close to the joycons drift. It was so big it couldn't be ignored.
 
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I forgot what the dye size would be for 6nm. @Thraktor was is you who made the theoretical size for all the possible nodes for Switch 2 (8nm Samsung, 7/6nm tsmc, 5nm tsmc)?
 
I don't know what the hardware techies think, but my experience of ray tracing so far is that it's either a total lighting solution or it's close to unnoticeable.

With Switch, I can't imagine you're going to get any fully ray traced games so I just can't care very much, and I'm wondering why they're bothering. I don't think the performance hit is worth it for prettier shadows, puddles and windows. Are there even good examples on XSX or PS5 of otherwise - where ray tracing makes a big difference without a huge hit to performance?

Even just googling "ray tracing worth it" shows recent tech articles / youtube vids from this year stating that it isn't.

What's the answer here, is this just nVidia pushing the tech because they know that one day it'll be how all games are fully rendered? Is it something any of you are legitimately excited about?
ray tracing is less about the gamers seeing it and more of an easier, holistic rendering solution. Ascendant Studios had a good write up as to why a lot of UE5 tools were great for development, including ray traced lighting

We also make extensive use of Lumen, which lets us add incredibly realistic-looking dynamic lighting to those more detailed Nanite objects, which interacts with lighting far better than before, resulting in prettier environments. And it lets us do so dramatically more quickly than before: In Unreal 4, we’d have to balance dynamic lights with “baked in” lighting for any area, a process that would take literal hours to complete. Lumen lets us light things pretty much instantly—with lighting effects that look fantastic.



lets ignore the fact immortals ran kinda poopy

given this, people can complain about "not seeing it" all they want, devs are moving to it whenever they can because it's a better tool in a lot of cases
 
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
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