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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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P4bl0 said:
What makes you think they going to release it in December ? They spaced it out by 6 months with Pokemon Sw/Sh
If they follow the same marketing pattern, the DLC pt 2 would release in Feb/Mar
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Isle of Armor came out June 17th, 2020. Crown Tundra came out October 22, 2020.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Portal RTX at 1440p DLSS performance runs at 18 FPS on a 2070.
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here's Fortnite with ray tracing running on a Vega 8 (512 gpu cores)



here's Fortnite with ray tracing running on a Steam Deck



here's Metro Exodus Enhanced Edition running on a Steam Deck



here's Quake 2, a path traced game, running on the Steam Deck



and here's Minecraft RTX running on a Steam Deck



now if you want to argue that Drake has weaker RT than these, be my guest
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Ehh, it's super embarrassing, but there's nothing surprising there other than that Bethesda's management seemed really stupid (three year dev cycle projections even after Fallout 76, lmao)

The Xbox Next releasing 2028 with a huge focus on cloud integration and hardware that accelerates ML algorithms? Very expected.

The Series X dropping the disc drive is the only actual huge news.
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I was referring to the fact that it was Microsoft that leaked the laundry list of info, not the FTC as previously thought. But you are right it's nothing super surprising apart from that honestly awful-looking redesign of the Series X without the disc drive (looks like a big version of one of the newer NVIDIA Shield TVs). That and maybe Microsoft wagering whether to implement ARM64 instead of x86-64 in their next machine.
 
P4bl0 said:
What makes you think they going to release it in December ? They spaced it out by 6 months with Pokemon Sw/Sh
If they follow the same marketing pattern, the DLC pt 2 would release in Feb/Mar
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The only thing going for DLC2 releasing in December is that Regulation E - which adds all the Pokemon included in the Teal Maskis going to end on January 1st. And even then, if Reg E restricts the new sub-legends, I can see them squeezing out another one to fill in till March
 
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ILikeFeet said:
here's Fortnite with ray tracing running on a Vega 8 (512 gpu cores)



here's Fortnite with ray tracing running on a Steam Deck



here's Metro Exodus Enhanced Edition running on a Steam Deck



here's Quake 2, a path traced game, running on the Steam Deck



and here's Minecraft RTX running on a Steam Deck



now if you want to argue that Drake has weaker RT than these, be my guest
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Yes, the Switch 2 will have better ray-tracing than the Steam Deck and by a comfortable margin.

The games you've shown are either Epic's flagship title, Metro, and games with extremely simple visuals that are not demanding at all outside of ray-tracing.

I do not expect the last category to be large at all on the Switch 2 unless indie devs get way better at using ray-tracing tools.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Yes, the Switch 2 will have better ray-tracing than the Steam Deck and by a comfortable margin.

The games you've shown are either Epic's flagship title, Metro, and games with extremely simple visuals that are not demanding at all outside of ray-tracing.

I do not expect the last category to be large at all on the Switch 2 unless indie devs get way better at using ray-tracing tools.
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"not demanding outside of ray tracing", don't go changing your argument, now. your whole point was about ray tracing

and you can't say that last line when you yourself posited a path traced game as evidence
 
If Nintendo pushes for 16GB of RAM then they would have a really nice buffer against Apple's hardware performance dominance. Switch having 33% more RAM than an iPhone X was one big factor on why it was able to have a performance advantage on actual games. Now Imagine a 100% advantage over the iPhone 15 (16 vs 8GB)! Image Nintendo PR wins if Resident Evil and Assasin Creed is running much better assets than an $1k iPhone 16 Pro.
 
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ILikeFeet said:
"not demanding outside of ray tracing", don't go changing your argument, now. your whole point was about ray tracing

and you can't say that last line when you yourself posited a path traced game as evidence
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LnBuZw
 
ILikeFeet said:
"not demanding outside of ray tracing", don't go changing your argument, now. your whole point was about ray tracing

and you can't say that last line when you yourself posited a path traced game as evidence
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My "whole argument" is that the Switch 2 will likely not be powerful enough to use ray-tracing in a meaningful way outside of a few edge cases. This is shown by the fact that much more powerful hardware is still brought to its knees by ray-tracing. There is just not enough raw power. The 2070 is 3-6x as powerful as the Switch 2 and runs Portal RTX (a case of a game with more modern looking visuals with high quality ray-tracing) at a non-playable framerate.

The PS5 is complete garbage at ray-tracing and the Switch's superior architecture for RT isn't making up a 6x gap of power between the Switch 2 and the PS5 and then going further beyond to "actually not garbage at ray-tracing."
 
P4bl0 said:
More pessimistic takes, it has already been confirmed by VGC that Switch 2 Ray Tracing capabilities will be superior to current-gen.
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Except Video Games Chronicle never said that.

What Video Games Chronicle said is that The Matrix Awakens: An Unreal Engine 5 Experience showcased by Nintendo and Epic had advanced ray tracing enabled, and the visuals were comparable to PlayStation 5 and the Xbox Series X|S, with respect to The Matrix Awakens: An Unreal Engine 5 Experience.
The demo is said to have been running using Nvidia's DLSS upscaling technology, with advanced ray tracing enabled and visuals comparable to Sony's and Microsoft's current-gen consoles (however, it should be noted this does not mean the Switch successor will sport raw power anywhere near that of PS5 or Xbox Series X, which aren't portable devices).
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(And no, comparable is not the same as superior.)
 
So I asked my magic 8-ball and here's what's going to happen:

Sep
TGS coming up, nintendo will once again talk with developers and publisher about NG Switch behind closed doors. Much like at gamescom.

Oct-Dec
Nintendos most important quarter of the year, they have 4 different bundles SKU's lined up and 4 different key titles for the holidays and with the last hurrah for the MK8 DLC and also the Pokemans DLC. They're fully focused on this, they wont tease or talk about NG Switch in any way because it wouldnt make sense for them. Joker: TGA will also feature Metroid Prime 2 shadow drop and Metroid Prime 3 slated for some time Jan-Feb with a physical release for both via double pack. But that's just me dreaming, probably, definitely.

Jan-Mar
3 pieces of software announced currently, with the march title as per normal the key title in the quarter and which will carry some load in to the new FY with Peach. It also look like a whole lot of effort went in to this title - I think they're going to do quite a decent push for it.

Expecting a direct - the very last Switch only one (for real this time) - outlining the already announced games and add another remaster or so and possibly another minor title for the upcoming months to fill out a Switch schedule.
Also Pokemon day, who knows. Maybe something comes out of it..

All the march-discussion? I'm sure it means something but it's not something that's going to be talked about in public.

Apr-Jun
Now the fun begins: between april 1 (or at the earliest after Peach in late march) and prior to the fiscal earnings NG Switch teaser trailer and some PR related to it. In early May there's the fiscal years earning and briefing in which they will openly start to discuss NG Switch and mention that they're going to talk about it more in the coming weeks.
Not long after, they will announce a showcase in the middle of June in which they do what we should expect them to do - display and talk hardware and show off games and obviously a release date. And it's going to hit the market first half of September and everyone rejoices.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
My "whole argument" is that the Switch 2 will likely not be powerful enough to use ray-tracing in a meaningful way outside of a few edge cases. This is shown by the fact that much more powerful hardware is still brought to its knees by ray-tracing. There is just not enough raw power. The 2070 is 3-6x as powerful as the Switch 2 and runs Portal RTX (a case of a game with more modern looking visuals with high quality ray-tracing) at a non-playable framerate.
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lol, Portal RTX is DLC for a game that released on Xbox 360. It's the definition of 'not at all demanding outside of ray tracing.'

No console is going to be doing full path-tracing, and that was never in the cards. They're going to be doing ray-traced GI, ambient occlusion, reflections, etc.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
My "whole argument" is that the Switch 2 will likely not be powerful enough to use ray-tracing in a meaningful way outside of a few edge cases. This is shown by the fact that much more powerful hardware is still brought to its knees by ray-tracing. There is just not enough raw power. The 2070 is 3-6x as powerful as the Switch 2 and runs Portal RTX (a case of a game with more modern looking visuals with high quality ray-tracing) at a non-playable framerate.

The PS5 is complete garbage at ray-tracing and the Switch's superior architecture for RT isn't making up a 6x gap of power between the Switch 2 and the PS5 and then going further beyond to "actually not garbage at ray-tracing."
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RT is part of Nvidia key features that the Switch 2 will benefit, the NG will be equipped with RT cores dedicated to it, they already implementing RT looking like games on Switch 1

We already had reports that it's better Raytracing capabilities than PS5 and Xbox and yet you keep going with your weird takes
 
Dakhil said:
Except Video Games Chronicle never said that.

What Video Games Chronicle said is that The Matrix Awakens: An Unreal Engine 5 Experience showcased by Nintendo and Epic had advanced ray tracing enabled, and the visuals were comparable to PlayStation 5 and the Xbox Series X|S, with respect to The Matrix Awakens: An Unreal Engine 5 Experience.

(And no, comparable is not the same as superior.)
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Legit question, is Ps5/XBSX ray tracing considered "advanced"? Because is much weaker than the weakest available Nvidia RT GPU in that respect.
 
Dakhil said:
Except Video Games Chronicle never said that.

What Video Games Chronicle said is that The Matrix Awakens: An Unreal Engine 5 Experience showcased by Nintendo and Epic had advanced ray tracing enabled, and the visuals were comparable to PlayStation 5 and the Xbox Series X|S, with respect to The Matrix Awakens: An Unreal Engine 5 Experience.

(And no, comparable is not the same as superior.)
Click to expand...

Who said it then I forgot ? I remember reading it, was it DF or Nate perhaps ?
 
lattjeful said:
Is that why things like RT reflections are more stable and more accurately reflect color and light in Phantom Liberty, since the denoiser retains more detail and Super Resolution properly upscales the RT effects now as a result?
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Yeah, and a little more than that. In DLSS, the denoiser and the upscaler are the same AI model.

The detail that DLSS is able to add to the current frame is preserved from previous frames. They slightly jitter the camera (less than a pixel) every frame so they guarantee they get a slightly different view of the scene, which lets them see additional detail even when, from the player perspective, the camera is totally static.

RT desnoisers essentially flatten the RT effect before DLSS can see it. From DLSS's point of view an RT effect is exactly the same as a low res texture. Camera jittering helps with anti-aliasing, but no additional detail.

By combining the models, the upscaler has access to the raw (ugly) pixel data underneath RT effect, which lets it discover detail just like with the rest of DLSS, but it knows "oh, this is an RT effect, I don't just need to upscale this raw pixel data, but smartly fill in the blanks."

And that's where the "little more" comes in. RR takes some new data from developers about the scene, which lets DLSS-RR do stuff like compute motion vectors on a specular highlight. So like, you have a shiny car moving in one direction, and a light moving in the other, the shiny highlight on the car "moves" in a third direction across the car.

Most denoisers don't have access to information that lives outside of RT space, so they wouldn't have that information to work with. And because a highlight isn't an "in engine" object the same way that the car and the light are, DLSS wouldn't ordinarily know "that's a moving piece of detail" during the upscale process. So by combining the two models, there is this new emergent info that neither side had before, which lets both make smarter decisions.

lattjeful said:
Couldn't that also mean that you could claw a tiny bit of performance back by rendering the RT stuff at lower resolutions, with SR + RR closing the gap in resolution? Or is RR purely for image quality purposes? I haven't looked too much into it, admittedly.
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In theory yes. That's why I'm waiting for Fortnite/UE5 to get DLSS RR support. That's when you'll really be able to compare and contrast "standard" denoisers and DLSS RR. Because it's not just resolution, obviously, with few rays cast, it's harder to make smart decisions about how fast to react to a light moving. Which is where temporal stability artifacts come from. So without some head to heads at multiple settings it won't be obvious how good RR can look at lower number of rays compared to other denoisers at higher numbers.

Hopefully we'll get a taste of it with Cyberpunk but with a completely bespoke engine that will never be reused (as CDPR is moving on to UE5), I'm not sure it will be the most informative example of how it plays out with other games.
 
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kvetcha said:
lol, Portal RTX is DLC for a game that released on Xbox 360. It's the definition of 'not at all demanding outside of ray tracing.'

No console is going to be doing full path-tracing, and that was never in the cards. They're going to be doing ray-traced GI, ambient occlusion, reflections, etc.
Click to expand...

I'm comparing it to literally Quake 2.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
My "whole argument" is that the Switch 2 will likely not be powerful enough to use ray-tracing in a meaningful way outside of a few edge cases. This is shown by the fact that much more powerful hardware is still brought to its knees by ray-tracing. There is just not enough raw power. The 2070 is 3-6x as powerful as the Switch 2 and runs Portal RTX (a case of a game with more modern looking visuals with high quality ray-tracing) at a non-playable framerate.

The PS5 is complete garbage at ray-tracing and the Switch's superior architecture for RT isn't making up a 6x gap of power between the Switch 2 and the PS5 and then going further beyond to "actually not garbage at ray-tracing."
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and I showed you a bunch of games that used RT in a meaningful way. ALL of them, at least, used the same major technique as Portal RTX (RTGI). and all of them ran on a system significantly weaker than the 2070.
 
P4bl0 said:
Who said it then I forgot ? I remember reading it, was it DF or Nate perhaps ?
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Nvidia's raytracing capabilities are much better than AMDs (what ps5 and xbox is powered by this gen).

Also what do you mean by RT looking games on switch 1? lol
 
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P4bl0 said:
Who said it then I forgot ? I remember reading it, was it DF or Nate perhaps ?
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iirc Nate said in the podcast that it might have even been superior to what we got in other versions. At least I think he did. Somebody was giving that impression and not sure who else it would have been. Edit: Could have been Digital Foundry as well.

Regardless it’s not definitive, and could be attributed to a number of things that aren’t Switch itself having superior RT, eg. Improvements to the demo/UE5 itself.
 
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If I recall correctly in one of DF's video about Spider-Man Remastered they talked about the frame time cost of the different steps of RT, including denoising. I'll check that, it could be useful to know if RR would be realistic on [Redacted].
 
ILikeFeet said:
and I showed you a bunch of games that used RT in a meaningful way. ALL of them, at least, used the same major technique as Portal RTX (RTGI). and all of them ran on a system significantly weaker than the 2070.
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Portal RTX is an outlier, being fully path-traced. Basically nothing is doing that right now aside from titles that are specifically designed to push bleeding-edge hardware to the limit. It's completely nonsensical to bring it up in the context of this discussion since it's got approximately zero chance of ever making it to a console in its current form, and isn't representative of anything.

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I'm comparing it to literally Quake 2.
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Portal RTX is just a more elaborate version of the exact same thing. Neither game is doing anything aside from path-tracing that is even moderately stressful for a modern system.
 
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PedroNavajas said:
Legit question, is Ps5/XBSX ray tracing considered "advanced"? Because is much weaker than the weakest available Nvidia RT GPU in that respect.
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I would say yeah, but rapidly losing that position.

PS5/XBSX were pretty powerful consoles, relative to the market they launched in, and that market hasn't progressed in power as fast as it did 10 years ago. They have aged pretty well, and likely competitive with the 2060/2070 in RT functions. Also the console engines are super optimized for AMD's hardware, with Nvidia actually having to drive the engine developers kicking and screaming into the RT era. So I would bet on those machines punching a little above their weight on Lumen.

On the PC side, half of the top ten most popular cards in the Steam Survey, including the number one card, are pre-RTX series. So 2060 performance is still advanced, if not cutting edged, RT relative to the market.

But you can also see how rapidly those cards are dying out. Budget PC gamers are going to start retiring their GTX cards and get bargain basement RTX 30 cards, and the consoles are going to be rapidly left behind.
 
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Kenka said:
Sorry for singling you out but this is lazy posting. Not only you didn't comment the video you posted but nothing concrete in Doctre's video indicates that Nintendo is looking into HDR. He even ends it by saying that what precedes is its 'gut feeling'.
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Oh my bad. Since the title explains itself I figured. Edited the original post.

While its true there is nothing concrete, its an area that are mentioned in job listings. The only way for "concrete" evidence is a press release or a factory leak.
 
kvetcha said:
Portal RTX is an outlier, being fully path-traced. Basically nothing is doing that right now aside from titles that are specifically designed to push bleeding-edge hardware to the limit. It's completely nonsensical to bring it up in the context of this discussion since it's got approximately zero chance of ever making it to a console in its current form, and isn't representative of anything.
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and RTXRemix is kinda a hack anyway. definitely the worse way to add RT to a game
 
kvetcha said:
Portal RTX is an outlier, being fully path-traced. Basically nothing is doing that right now aside from titles that are specifically designed to push bleeding-edge hardware to the limit. It's completely nonsensical to bring it up in the context of this discussion since it's got approximately zero chance of ever making it to a console in its current form, and isn't representative of anything.


Portal RTX is just a more elaborate version of the exact same thing. Neither game is doing anything other than path-tracing that is even moderately stressful for a modern CPU.
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March 2024:
"... And one more thing. Portal RTX will release as a free update for Portal Compation Collection for Switch RTX! - drops mic -."

One can dream, right!? :p
 
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